FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: 538 on Countdown

8.09.2008

538 on Countdown

by Nate Silver @ 2:26 AM

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108 comments

clarkejeffrey said...: Impressive performance.

I'm just curious about something.

It looks like he caught you offguard on the baseball questions. Have you switched fulltime to politics? How do you keep up with following all this stuff at the same time?

Ever do any stock market analysis?

That is the ultimate numbers game challenge.; August 9, 2008 2:43 AM
Falsehood said...: I think there can be a bit of confusion for those watching, in that your baseball predictions don't necessarily relate to your election predictions.

That's because in baseball, past performance is a strong predictor of future performance, along with a host of other quantifiable factors. That's not the case in politics, where a single story can change the entire perception of a candidate, as in today.

I think the baseball work is more akin to the polling ratings, as well as the height of the bar for X candidate in X state (much higher in CA than TX for McCain, or WY versus IL for Obama).

In other words, your work does a great job of showing where states fall between favored Obama and McCain (also in the Scenario analysis), but we're all in the dark in regards to how the national numbers will shift in the coming days, which affects each state separately. We can see that WI will go Dem unless MI doesn't, but we don't know if some scandal will break that will send both either way.

You compensate for this somewhat with the Super Tracker, but as the data shows and as you said tonight, the numbers will probably swing quite a bit in the coming days. It's a pity that we don't have more data points on what underlying factors tend to affect votes more (economically especially, but then again, I'm not sure I would like a Pres election every year.

Keep up the good work, Nate. I've been a fan since you started this site, and I hope your success continues.

One last request - would it be possible for you to release your past data for additional crunching, such as the EV, Win %, and Pop. Vote predictors?

There's a wealth of data there for showing which narratives affected the race in which ways.; August 9, 2008 2:49 AM
Mark said...: I like how you dropped the "pick Schweitzer" and "Gang of 10 checkmate" for Senator Obama.; August 9, 2008 2:52 AM
DarienCrow said...: Nate, I gotta say "Good Job"!

I don't watch MSNBC because they are just awful but you were very impressive. You explained everything clearly and you even outshine that Olberman dude. He's got the personality of a parking meter.

If you can somehow take Chris Matthews job... I'll watch for sure.

Anyway... congrats and I actually am rooting for you here. I think it would be awesome if you nail it.; August 9, 2008 2:55 AM
Pander said...: Well done Nate. Handled his questions well, explained your site to the public far better than I've been able to explain it to my wife, and managed to call the Cubs' continued disappointment. Bravo!

From a hollywood perspective, I'd recommend tilting your chin up a bit more next time. Also, it's easier to say than do, but just stay calm. Sometimes when you were talking, you'd raise your eyebrows as a reflex you probably weren't aware you were doing, as well as speak faster. You were rarely lost for words, which is a great plus for the world of tele-punditry, good delivery on the dart-board pollsters and you analysis of Obama's oil plan decision.

So yeah. I feel terrible haranguing you after a nation-wide TV appearance, you did kick ass. Congrats!; August 9, 2008 2:57 AM
Daniel said...: Lifelong Cubs fan:

The Cubs are definitely winning it all this year!!! You should know that by now!!!

The rest of me:

You're doing a great job. I enjoy reading your analysis on everything. Admittedly I am not familiar with the exact equations you are using, but what amount of your manipulations could be done analytically as compared to numerically? My background is in math, so I tend to doubt numerical results more than analytical results. I'll end by saying that I realize that the amount of error induced by sampling likely dwarfs any numerical error.; August 9, 2008 3:00 AM
Pander said...: Lifelong Sox Fan:

Daniel is sadly delusional.; August 9, 2008 3:01 AM
craigw5 said...: Hey Nate, (Poblano) that was so cool to see you on Countdown. I first caught your projections at Daily Kos around the first of the year. I know nothing about statistics, but I'm a Red Sox, Dodgers fan, and I know nothing about stats, either. I just know talent. You got it. Lots. Way ta go. Big fan. Keep it up. Oh, and Gobama.; August 9, 2008 3:12 AM
Jack said...: I just caught the post that you were going to be on a little before Countdown started. Glad I did - was great.; August 9, 2008 3:40 AM
Irene said...: Great job, Nate!! I love your site, and I hope to see you on more shows in the future. I really do hope for great things to come your way (sounds like some already are!). The world needs more talented, gracious, and humble people; I just know you're going to be the go to person for these sorts of predictions, just wait and see.; August 9, 2008 4:05 AM
Alex S. said...: Congratulations, Nate!
Good performance of you and Keith. I remember your interview on CNN a few weeks ago, those guys were a bit less interested in how your model actually works, but Keith did a good job, it seems he was genuinely interested. And I also realized you two have similar background, switching from sports to politics.
Anyways, keep up the good work, you´re on to something.; August 9, 2008 4:50 AM
The Cunctator said...: Well done, but you don't know anything about energy policy, and I wish you'd admit that.; August 9, 2008 5:07 AM
Tito said...: Congrats Nate, and all you guys, for getting some long-overdue prime time national exposure. You've definitely made the number-crunching and poll watching a hell of a lot more interesting and intelligent. Keep up the good work.; August 9, 2008 5:09 AM
PeteKent said...: Nate is clearly on his way. First Karl Rove and now Bathtub Boy. Olbermann is literally painful to listen. He is such a hack for the Democrats. He makes Sean Hannity seem fair and balanced indeed.

I think the Gang of Ten stuff was misplaced, as a statatician Nate should stick to the cold hard truth inhrerent in the numbers and the policy positions to us! LOL

Fact is the Gand of Ten compromise is going nowhere.

Obama is already on vacation and has left his goal undefended.; August 9, 2008 5:20 AM
Jonny said...: I like how you present your senate score card. Could you do that for the presidential election too? It makes it easier to follow how the states are changing.; August 9, 2008 5:27 AM
contrarybear said...: Well done Nate -- you acquitted yourself well. Hope to see you on TV again sometime. And tangentially, 538 is my favorite new site of the year.

(I am almost ready to forgive you now for the high PECOTA projection on Felipe Lopez.); August 9, 2008 5:53 AM
Brian Dell said...: I think the opinion on the energy bill could have been prefaced by a "I'm partial to Obama here" caveat, but otherwise a good interview.; August 9, 2008 5:55 AM
PorridgeGun said...: This post has been removed by the author.; August 9, 2008 6:37 AM
PorridgeGun said...: Mark said...

"I like how you dropped the "pick Schweitzer" and "Gang of 10 checkmate" for Senator Obama."

Indeed, nice plug of Schweitzer and "checkmate" - two possible Obama game-changing decisions. As the late George Carlin said of Olbermann and Countdown, "This is best news show on television."

Olbermann has a habit of inviting smart, outside the MSM pundits and experts like yourself and Sam Seder onto his show. I hope Keith has you on as a regular.; August 9, 2008 6:43 AM
Russell said...: Now the real question: what kind of boost in site-views do you think you'll get? Any takers for bets on this one?; August 9, 2008 6:51 AM
Lupercal said...: good stuff nate. concise. well thought out answers. somehow that reminds a little (just a little though) of the first batch of obama interviews. im so over the punditocracy. But hey, i hope you're back soon, and then perhaps if you don't change too much (i know you might have to adapt a bit), i just might tune in quite reguarly to catch a glimpse of you.

anyhow, congrats. and keep up the good analysis. don't ever think that you have to post so much in any one day that the quality suffers. because the complexity and real-life feel is what's drawn so many of us here. tx man.; August 9, 2008 6:55 AM
foppington said...: Speaking as a non-Yankee, non-Pirate fan, I'd say the answer on Jeff Karstens is "maybe." Flags both red and green abound. If you run 10000 simulations, he probably doesn't make it, but it could be close. He'll probably start giving up hits at some point, though.

And I was wondering, when you said a VP pick could add 2-3 points--did you mean in the home state, or in the general? A 2-3 point swing in the general election is monstrously huge, so I find that a little hard to believe, especially considering how rarely a running mate helps in his own home state.; August 9, 2008 7:08 AM
TJB said...: Every day of every week this site slides farther and farther to the left.

Take a look at some of the state by states...PPP gets a HIGHER factor than Rasmussen...and no one who does polling would ever even infer for a moment that PPP (an avowed Democrat poll) is anywhere near as accurate as Rasmussen.

We see "OPRAH likes BARRACK"... we see the (since 1968...and believe me I remember that election)"the youth vote".

Nate...you went on Olbermann...
He has ZERO credibility.

Why did you not try to get on the O'Reilly Factor and yack at him and
get this site some added visibility.

Don't sell yourself short.; August 9, 2008 7:11 AM
raisedinbrooklyn said...: I have never seen you in person and thought you were some old statistician crunching numbers.

Both you and your site are top shelf. Like the election, you are hot! Married? Partner? Civil Union? Available?

I'm bad!; August 9, 2008 7:14 AM
PorridgeGun said...: Brian Dell said...

"I think the opinion on the energy bill could have been prefaced by a "I'm partial to Obama here" caveat, but otherwise a good interview."

Why? Nate isn't advising the Obama campaign, he's merely offering his opinion as a pundit. Unlike Karl Rove and the FOX Propaganda Network. How long did it take them to tell their brainwashed audience that Rove was actively involved with the McCain campaign? I mean, have they ever? When people started questioning Sean Hannity's campaigning for Rudy Giuliani, their excuse was "He's not a journalist."

Also, Bill O'Reilly to this day tries to pass himself off as an independent, and not a partisan Republican. Nevermind that Al Franken found out he voted for George W. Bush.; August 9, 2008 7:15 AM
PorridgeGun said...: TJB said...

"Every day of every week this site slides farther and farther to the left.

Nate...you went on Olbermann... He has ZERO credibility.

Why did you not try to get on the O'Reilly Factor and yack at him and get this site some added visibility.

Don't sell yourself short."

See above.

Do I detect a hint of sour grapes and bitterness from the wingnuts? Funny how these people keep whining about this site, yet they keep coming back. Or maybe they're the McCain trolls I keep reading about.

Why would Nate want to go on a show like The Factor? He'd be interrupted every 30 seconds and have his mic cut for not agreeing with O'Reilly's lunatic right-wing talking points.; August 9, 2008 7:35 AM
NJ_Moderate said...: There is one great reason for going on a Fox News show .. to broaden the audience. Olbermann's show is almost exclusively watched by people who are going to vote for Obama anyway. It's ratings are better than most of the MSNBC shows but are still under the tandem of O'Reilly and Hannity. Playing offense is the name of the game, take the message into enemy territory. Nate is a more than capable messenger in this regard.; August 9, 2008 7:54 AM
doc4nuts said...: Nate, I concur with "raisedinbrooklyn." You and your site are hot!

That is from a Board Certified Psychiatrist who thought you were some little old man doing research!

I'm bad, too!; August 9, 2008 7:55 AM
timfry said...: TBJ, NJ_M, et al.,

In the previous thread announcing the Countdown interview, Nate said that he would love to do The Factor. He was asked to do Countdown (like the previous CNN interview), so he did it. If you have connections or watch those shows, you may want to suggest it to the producers. Nate is open to it.; August 9, 2008 8:29 AM
moondancer said...: Going on Fox is to lose credibility and worse give them some. Don't do it.; August 9, 2008 9:08 AM
Choppero said...: Sorry, but the Cubs are going to win the World Series. If you can't go against 100 years of History, why are you going against 200+ years of history and predicting a black man will become president?

Go Cubs!; August 9, 2008 9:10 AM
cher said...: Watched it last night and was glad to see you again. I watch Olberman every night and have for years and it was wonderful to see the two of you together as I am often here reading your site. Good JOB!; August 9, 2008 9:27 AM
someperson718 said...: That was a great job Nate, don't get arrogant and presumptuous though, you should "know your place", lol j/k.; August 9, 2008 9:27 AM
someperson718 said...: That's actually a good point choppero. However the difference is Obama hasn't been around for 200 years, the cubs.............not so much.; August 9, 2008 9:29 AM
Fizz Byers said...: great job nate! you should be very proud of your performance! http://www.VoteRobot.org; August 9, 2008 9:36 AM
anarchosocialfag said...: Nate, you are too cute. If you ever want to go gay, just let me know.; August 9, 2008 9:36 AM
Choppero said...: Someperson... I just had to give him heck for that though. ;) Just raggin on him; August 9, 2008 9:39 AM
Darío said...: The new Rasmussen poll say that two canidates are tied in 44%. McCain wins 47-46 with leaners.; August 9, 2008 9:43 AM
lpmiller said...: great job, but a little advice - smile at the beginning and at the end, don't let your face go slack like that. During the actual question/answer part you were perfect.; August 9, 2008 9:49 AM
PeteKent said...: Wierd commentary in this thread . . .I'd worry, if I were you, Nate!

LOL

First Joe McHale, now Nate. All these sellouts to Olbermann!

I totally agree that if you want to get broader exposure your ought to go on Fox. Afterall that's where Karl Rove gave you that first dose of national publicity.

******

I too note that Ras tracker shows movement towards McCain. I wonder if it had to do with the Edwards story, which right now I think will be a minor short run negative for dems generally, but should have limited to no impact on Obama.

Obama is going to be hurt by the vacation.

His net stands empty . . . .; August 9, 2008 9:51 AM
Oldnovice said...: I caught ya in realtime (by surprise) while watching Keith. My impression was that you did a good job, looked handsome, looked smart. :tup; August 9, 2008 9:58 AM
PeteKent said...: On current secular trends effecting the polls, let me add the War in Georgia. If the Edwards tragedy does not push it out of the public concsiouness, McCain should be boosted, in theory, by the attention paid to an international crisis.; August 9, 2008 10:01 AM
SNED said...: Nate, this was great, I mised countdown last night for about the first time in 3 months and of course I miss this. Glad to see your great work being rewarded! Keep it up!; August 9, 2008 10:11 AM
John said...: Interestingly, the Rasmussen tracking poll also shows McCain with his highest "Very Unfavorable" rating ever, 21%. Although it is still less than Obama's "Very Unfavorable" rating, 28%, it suggests McCain may be becoming more polarizing.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/favorable_ratings_for_presidential_candidates; August 9, 2008 10:13 AM
Adam said...: To be honest, Pete, the Olympics are holding everyone's attention for the next week or two. That's why Obama chose this week to recharge for the final push (and why Edwards did the dump on the day of the opening ceremonies). I don't expect either national tracker to move more than a couple points in either direction no matter what happens. People just aren't paying attention to politics until the Olympics are over (and far less to stuff like the war in Georgia).; August 9, 2008 10:19 AM
Darío said...: I think Pete was right.
War in Georgia helps McCain now but the election is in November and we stay in August now.; August 9, 2008 10:39 AM
NC moderate said...: "McCain should be boosted, in theory, by the attention paid to an international crisis"

Have to disagree "Pete Kent". The GOP neocons got the US stuck in Iraq and I think Americans will afraid to a have another Republican in the White House if large scale armed conflicts break out.

The shoot first and make up answers later routine of Bush and the neocons has gotten really old.; August 9, 2008 10:43 AM
Adam said...: "Have to disagree "Pete Kent". The GOP neocons got the US stuck in Iraq and I think Americans will afraid to a have another Republican in the White House if large scale armed conflicts break out."

If I recall from Rasmussen, voters are pretty split on which party best handles foreign affairs. Republicans might actually have an advantage; I forget the exact numbers. Just a legacy thing really.

But, the real point is that voters just *don't care* about what happens overseas when they're hurting at home. If I recall, Iraq has really low importance numbers now, especially since Bush/McCain/Obama/Maliki have basically converged on a solution. What happens in Georgia just doesn't matter to anyone when they're hurting at the gas pump. I highly doubt foreign policy will be a major issue at all in polls or anything else no matter who voters favor on it; it's all energy and economy issues.; August 9, 2008 10:52 AM
Ed said...: Nate:

Nervous much? You were articulate but you looked like you were ready to jump out of your chair. Relax, there's only like a million or so people watching ;)

you may want to change the tag from msm to msnbc?

-Ed; August 9, 2008 11:02 AM
NC moderate said...: "it's all energy and economy issues"

Fair enough, but foreign policy issues will play to the McCain theme of "Ready to Lead". McCain will hammer the lead theme since he has flown a plane he will be a better leader in war. McCain does not want to run on an economic platform as the overall economy is not doing well. This is also why the GOP is harping on oil drilling as a cure-all to all economic woes.

I hope the GOP keeps the "revolt" up as Rep. David Davis (R-TN) lost in the GOP primary. His GOP opponent painted Davis as being owned by Big Oil.; August 9, 2008 11:06 AM
Darío said...: "it´s all energy and economic issues".
Rasmussen Reports said that McCain is now leading Obama is this issues.; August 9, 2008 11:06 AM
G L Payne said...: Wouldn't it be grand if every pundit/expert/journalist was as competent and knowledgeable in his/her field as Nate was?

Everyone who wants to see more of this type of analysis on TV, should send comments to MSNBC.; August 9, 2008 11:07 AM
PeteKent said...: I think the Olympics are overrated as a phenomenon. I frankly don't think they suck as much air out of the room as some folks here think.; August 9, 2008 11:11 AM
olberove said...: A bit of rouge, a touch of lipstick would have been nice. And maybe a glove puppet of Pete Kent.; August 9, 2008 11:15 AM
Tyrone said...: Also, O'Reilly was bragging Thursday Night how his show got 4 and a half times the viewers as the show "on the same time slot" as The Factor. He didn't say any names, but it was clear everyone knows that he was talking about Countdown.

O'Reilly says he averages about 4 million viewers per night. If you divide that by 4.5, thats about 890,000 viewers that Countdown gets. No wonder Mark Levin calls the show "Countdown to no ratings"; August 9, 2008 11:18 AM
Tyrone said...: This post has been removed by the author.; August 9, 2008 11:14 AM
Tyrone said...: I am tired of people whining about FOX News being biased when MSNBC is far more biased than FOX News is.; August 9, 2008 11:18 AM
Matthew H said...: Nicely done. I'm sure some of our...stranger posters missed that you said you'd love to be on Fox, but you haven't gotten an invite.

I don't know why Obama going on vacation is a big deal. If McCain went on vacation, I might notice around Friday that he hadn't said anything stupid this week.

It's not like he'll stop advertising, after all.; August 9, 2008 11:19 AM
olberove said...: Tyre-one, you need deflating there?; August 9, 2008 11:20 AM
Jack said...: Saw you on "Countdown." I am old. Have followed in depth every election since 1948. A lot of attention lately to 'favorable-unfavorable' ratings. As I said in book I wrote in 2001, the Republicans, for some reason,fall to the hate side more than Democrats. Jack; August 9, 2008 11:21 AM
Darío said...: Liberman is a choice for McCain for VP.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/4af34942-65a1-11dd-a352-0000779fd18c,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2F4af34942-65a1-11dd-a352-0000779fd18c.html%3Fnclick_check%3D1&_i_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fhotair.com%2F&nclick_check=1; August 9, 2008 11:21 AM
Arthur said...: May I add my voice to the chorus... You have done a great job on your web site and an even better job for those of us who are statistically challenged! As one who flunked Algebra (several times) in my youth, I am especially grateful for your clear analysis and explanations. Not to mention the accuracy of your primary predictions. Thanks and please keep up the good work!; August 9, 2008 11:23 AM
Jack said...: BTW, Rasmussen has to be watched. Is very right wing; loved by Kudlow. Not saying he is wrong but should identify himself as Republican. His final polls have been close, but I suspect he does a little 'manipulating' during the campaigns.; August 9, 2008 11:26 AM
Adam said...: Jack,

While I think Rasmussen is pretty accurate in state-by-state polling, he does seem to do a bit of push polling in other issues.

I see questions like "should we focus on developing new sources of energy" and then Rasmussen and right-wing media use that to push the narrative that Americans demand drilling. Same with stuff like "will new offshore drilling lower the price of gas". Well, yes, technically, but it's a lot more complicated than that, but these polls get a lot of coverage and are rather unfairly worded. It's clear who his dog in the fight is (as evidenced by the constant Dick Morris articles), and it seems like he wants to remain an impartial pollster but squeeze what results he can out of interestingly worded poll questions.; August 9, 2008 11:33 AM
olberove said...: Er, you dummos, without a trustworthy firm like Rasmussen polling this site- splendid as it is- wouldn't be worth shit. Don't bite the hand that feeds.; August 9, 2008 11:37 AM
Adam said...: Olberove,

Don't get me wrong, he's a pretty accurate (and prolific) pollster. But he does like to ask leading questions in other areas besides presidential preference, and those results are often used to push Republican narratives. You take the good with the bad, I guess.; August 9, 2008 11:45 AM
Jack said...: olberove, did you see my comment about the "hate" factor? Of course, you are just an anecdote but you illustrate what I mentioned. Jack; August 9, 2008 11:46 AM
Darío said...: Rasmussen tracking said that McCain leads with leaners 47-46. But without leaners is tie and McCain never won without leaners since May in the Rasmussen tracking.
He win only with "leaners".
And Rasmussen markets data gives Obama a 59.8% (same 60%) chance of winning the White House. That´s more important than the daily presidential pool.; August 9, 2008 12:09 PM
Darío said...: Sorry, poll.; August 9, 2008 12:10 PM
VegnaBlitz said...: As a liberal, I'm not opposed to Nate going on BillO's show. Just prepare to be interrupted or asked about stupid and irrelevant things...Make your talking points quickly.; August 9, 2008 12:29 PM
gougef said...: Your visit to Countdown sure has brought out the "McTrolls for McPoints."

O'Reilly averages around 2.2 Million viewers, of which 90%+ are voting for McCain. Right, fair and balanced, more like a effing echo chamber.

Countdown had been beating O'Reilly in the 25-54 demographic that is important to advertisers.; August 9, 2008 12:29 PM
thatmarvelousape said...: McCain has a serious conflict of interest regarding Georgia. One of his top foreign policy advisers lobbied for the Georgian government shortly before signing on to McCain's campaign, and sure enough, he released a statement on McCain's behalf yesterday taking a far more belligerent line than we've seen from any other world leader (including Bush). While I agree some international incidents might help McCain, this conflict of interest and his views on Russia in general have the potential to be a major liability. Nobody longs to restart the Cold War and given the damage that Putin could do to energy markets, McCain's call for sanctions has major economic ramifications for Americans.

Also the Ras tracker results are within the MOE and the normal results for the last week since Ras changed his party ID model. Surely, people here know better than to look for meaning in the daily fluctuations of a tracker.; August 9, 2008 12:32 PM
PeteKent said...: The Left and Speech

I worry about Nate. If he really said he would like to be on Fox News and is just awaiting an invite, he should be waiting to be contacted by Move On . Org.

As part of the Left’s anti-free speech agenda, they are very interested in regulating and silencing any form of speech that offends them. It is value based for them; it is all about what they think is right (but not “right wing” lol).

Fox News is forbidden. It's really quite Stalinist in its attempt to control thought. Sadly, I think Obama is perfectly at home in that milieu. It is quite plain the he thinks he knows he right. Mrs. Obama in her more militant speeches (before the lid was clamped down on her – upside her head?) would take pains to tell us how “Barrack” will challenge “us”, make us change, all of it kind of scary in the degree to which she prefigured a world “according to Barrack”. Always remember these memes have a basis somewhere. The analytical question is how strained.

Nate, you are a great communicator with an excellent grasp of material. You would do well to use your gifts to preserve your ability to exercise them.

With the Left, always remember: In their minds the Ends justify the Means.; August 9, 2008 12:50 PM
filistro said...: Uh oh... Gallup shows Obama up by 5 today.

Since every lead seems somehow to indicate Obama is in trouble... I guess this means he's totally imploding, right?

Pete?; August 9, 2008 1:06 PM
... said...: Gallup has Obama up by 5 (47-42)

Rasmussen is a republican pollster who works for fox news. His methodology is clearly for McCain at this moment(Likely voters).; August 9, 2008 1:11 PM
filistro said...: BTW, I attribute McCain's sudden precipitous decline to the Paris Hilton ad.

It's the "Emperor Has No Clothes" effect. For decades we've all heard "maverick, stright shooter, war hero" till it's lodged deep in our psyches. Then suddenly a little kid comes along and points out this is actually just a "wrinkly, white-haried dude" and we all think... "hey, she's right!"

And then we notice he's pretty cranky and mean-spirited, too.

Game over.

Moral... be very careful which hornet's nest you decide to poke.; August 9, 2008 1:13 PM
Cugel said...: "the left is quite Stalinist" is it now?

LOL! I guess the standard tactic of the wing-nuts is to flip everything. If you are part of the rigid orthodoxy that brands every question as "treason!" and ends every debate about Iraq with "we can't withdraw!" then flip it so that the "left" is Stalinist!

Never mind that Bush just accidentally went on air and asked Rush Limbaugh how "our guy" Rodger Ailes is. Then he said "I didn't know we were on air."

Fox News is not a news organization, it's a lying propaganda outlet for the Republican party and Bush just acknowledged that. This is the network that has graphics calling Obama "Osama", etc. and spews endless hate speech.

To treat it as a legitimate news organization is a joke. Keith Olberman is one guy who happens to be a moderate liberal -- and somehow that balances everything? Ninety-nine percent conservative drones on all the MSM? 1% Liberals.

How about if the MSM actually reflected America, which would mean that 30% of broadcasters were actual liberals, 34% conservatives, and the rest moderates?

The result would be unrecognizable. The right wing would go into total shock and start screaming about a take over of our public airwaves by "Communists!"

Fox News is an entire organization of right-wing robots all spewing the same talking points.; August 9, 2008 1:15 PM
Alex S. said...: Btw, Russian-Georgian War:

If you want to know what´s the real topic on people´s minds at the moment, check the most viewed articles on the main page of the rather unbiased Washington Post - it´s the Edwards affair.; August 9, 2008 1:18 PM
filistro said...: While I'm here... Nate, great job. Doing national TV is no walk in the park... for anybody... and you acquitted yourself very well.

Also, Cher... just wanted you to know that "Gypsies, Tramps and Thieves" is one of my all-time faves :-); August 9, 2008 1:18 PM
clarkejeffrey said...: Pete,

You know nothing about free speech. How is moveon.org "interested in regulating and silencing any form of speech that offends them"? You never say that. Yet you continue to put that really offensive charge out there.

If you believe in free speech, you believe in moveon.org's right to disagree with Fox news. Look closer. Moveon.org isn't silencing free speech. They are exercising it. Isn't it their right to disagree with Fox? Isn't it their right to inform Fox's advertisers that they disagree with Fox?

What specifically do you object to?

Do you know the difference between exercise of free speech and suppression of it?; August 9, 2008 1:24 PM
PeteKent said...: I am sorry if you were not aware that Move On . Org had put a ban on any Democrat it supports appearing on Fox News. People are punished for breaking it.

*****

I think the Gallup tracker result is curious. The RV sample -- does it weight by party ID or is just the first 1000 RVs they find?

That is a big blip upward for Obama, I doubt that it is totally explained by McCain having gone negative. There was a trend that would support that thesis, but it was decelerating, not accelerating. Yesterday with the Edwards story breaking and the Georgia conflict, not to mention President Bush playing to his base about America and the defense of freedom, I would have thought that the movement would start turning to favor McCain, as Ras has done.

I must attribute last night's result in the Gallup to "statistical noise" (certainly not "regression to the mean"!) and dismiss it and chuckle that like the man who went on a bender you eventually have to pay for the fun.

Watch what happens to Obama's number once last night's sample drops off. He better have had a bitchin' couple of days!; August 9, 2008 1:39 PM
Daniel said...: I'm for Obama, clearly don't need another hate monger in the White House but I have to stand up for Rasmussen.

Rasmussen is absolutely in the tank for the GOP but his 2004 polling correctly predicted the presidential winner in every state polled (how many of you got OH, PA, MI, NM, FL, NV, WS, MN and NH all correct because Ras did??).

In 2006, a year of extremely close Senate battles, he only got one very close race wrong (Ras projected McCaskill to lose by one point).

So, until an election cycle comes along to prove Rasmussen's methodology to be incorrect, I think many on this site need to open their eyes up to the reality that this is a very close election -- at least right now it is.

As for the bloggers here that don't like this site's methodology because they feel it tilts against the Wrinkley White Haired Dude, you are free to go elsewhere for your electoral projections.; August 9, 2008 1:41 PM
NC moderate said...: "I must attribute last night's result in the Gallup to "statistical noise"

You are such a hypocrite "Pete Kent." Anytime the McCain gets close in the Gallup poll you blather that Obama's support has collapsed, but when the gap expands in Obama's favor, you call it "noise." You do not reason well.

I am sorry if you did not know Fox News was a GOP propaganda machine.; August 9, 2008 1:51 PM
filistro said...: Pete, you really are incorrigible.

I find it kind of endearing, actually (in a perverse kind of way :-); August 9, 2008 1:56 PM
clarkejeffrey said...: I am sorry if you were not aware that Move On . Org had put a ban on any Democrat it supports appearing on Fox News. People are punished for breaking it.

Pete,

I wasn't aware of this. That is still free speech though. Its a political organization. They can do whatever they want. If they were a government organization, I would agree with you.

If it was say, the person in charge of hiring prosecutors for the justice department and they paid attention to the political views, that would be a problem.

That is a big blip upward for Obama, I doubt that it is totally explained by McCain having gone negative. There was a trend that would support that thesis, but it was decelerating, not accelerating. Yesterday with the Edwards story breaking and the Georgia conflict, not to mention President Bush playing to his base about America and the defense of freedom, I would have thought that the movement would start turning to favor McCain, as Ras has done.

A couple of things. I don't think Edwards or Georgia are going to affect the presidential race at all. Second, any day Bush is on the news is a bad day for McCain.

Ultimately though, I think you are right. It is statistical noise. I'm not sure we've seen any real movement in the last month or so.

I would note that if I'm willing to acknowledge that the upward trend in Gallup is statistical noise, you should be willing to note the same about the downward trend in Rasmussen.

Obama's true lead is about 3 points and has been there for quite awhile.

You've had a habit of saying every McCain friendly poll is a great sign and every Obama friendly poll is a clear outlier or statistical noise. This is delusion on the greatest level.; August 9, 2008 1:59 PM
ogre said...: Pete, Darien...

Assuming for the moment that Nate isn't willing to go on Faux (something we've seen is incorrect, already...), and assuming that his purpose is to influence voters, rather than to report what the math shows him and to drive traffic to this site and perhaps benefit from his work...

It would be a waste of time to go on Fox. The data shows that Fox viewers voted 87% (from memory--it might have been 83%...) GOP. Pursuing that demographic is highly inefficient, so it would make sense for Nate--if he's just pushing Obama--to put himself where voters more likely to consider voting for a Democrat are going to be watching.

Pete, you remarked, in all your blather; With the Left, always remember: In their minds the Ends justify the Means.

Ah, yes. Like the Geneva Convention and Constitution are quaint pieces of paper. Like Gitmo, completely and totally under US control, is not subject to US law and American courts. Like torture is ok, ethical, moral and laudable when used by Americans....

It must be physically painful to be so full of shit.; August 9, 2008 3:08 PM
Darío said...: McCain isn´t win in the Rasmussen tracking since May without leaners. He "leads" with "leaners".; August 9, 2008 3:18 PM
Darío said...: Rasmussen markets data gives Obama a 59.8% (same 60%) chance of winning the White House. That´s more important than the daily presidential pool.
Remember that.; August 9, 2008 3:23 PM
tomthress said...: "I must attribute last night's result in the Gallup to "statistical noise" (certainly not "regression to the mean"!) and dismiss it and chuckle that like the man who went on a bender you eventually have to pay for the fun.

Watch what happens to Obama's number once last night's sample drops off. He better have had a bitchin' couple of days!"

This really is hilarious! McCain gained two points in Rasmussen and it's because of either Edwards or Georgia (the country), or Obama's vacation. Obama gains two points in Gallup and it's an obvious fluke that portends a big Obama drop in three days when it drops off.

How about this: the tracking polls both show very strongly THAT ABSOLUTELY NOTHING IS CHANGING ABOUT THIS RACE. Over the past week, they've gone from averaging about +1 Obama to today averaging +2 Obama. At most, you could argue that's a very slightly pro-Obama week. More reasonably, ABSOLUTELY NOTHING HAS CHANGED ABOUT THIS RACE.; August 9, 2008 3:23 PM
tomthress said...: This post has been removed by the author.; August 9, 2008 3:23 PM
Adam said...: Pete,

You might have missed a couple threads ago where someone asked Nate to go on O'Reilly.

He said he'd love to, and for anyone with a connection to the show to tell Bill to contact Nate. Keith got him on because Keith posts at DKos and someone led him here, so, if you know of a similar way to contact someone at Fox, go for it.; August 9, 2008 3:28 PM
Jack said...: A little common sense on polls. All people look at is the final poll--how close was the poll to the actual outcome. The real story is how Ras and others try to influcence the outcome. Look at Ras on Ohio. An obvious attempt to bolster McCain supporters psyche.

I could do a "poll" the day before election. Just kind of average the respectable polls and use that figure. I would be close, and then next election cycle I would be taken seriously. I think that's Ras's system.

I may be unfair but Ras. using Kudlow as an endorsement has to make you suspicious, Kudlow being 'hysterical' Republican. Jack; August 9, 2008 3:31 PM
Harvey said...: You look a little like Harold Ford, Jr., Nate.; August 9, 2008 3:55 PM
clarkejeffrey said...: The real story is how Ras and others try to influcence the outcome. Look at Ras on Ohio. An obvious attempt to bolster McCain supporters psyche.

He doesn't seem to be doing much to bolster McCain supporters psyche in Wisconsin and Minnesota.

That poll in Ohio was obviously off. I think he undersampled young voters and hit an unrepresentative sample. This happens in polling sometimes. I don't think its intentional. I don't think that Obama +15 poll was a deliberate attempt either.

Polling isn't perfect and you see some clear outliers sometime. I think you have to use the averages.; August 9, 2008 4:16 PM
vbd1311 said...: Great job, nate/poblano.; August 9, 2008 4:38 PM
Cass said...: Nate, if you're reading this, please ignore all the (well-intended, I'm sure) advice you're getting in these comments, unless your goal in life is to be a Talking Head. You came across as real, smart, and honest, just like the content of your website. I'm sure traffic to your site is growing just fine with the excellent word of mouth it always gets. I've seen you mentioned on so many blogs, in print, and now on TV. Just keep doing what you're doing; that's why most of us are here.; August 9, 2008 5:25 PM
judas_priest said...: Pete Kent:

Why don't you start your own web site? You could use the slogan, "No numbers were crunched in the presentation of this site."; August 9, 2008 6:10 PM
raft said...: judas_priest: Pete Kent: Why don't you start your own web site? You could use the slogan, "No numbers were crunched in the presentation of this site."

ouch.; August 9, 2008 10:19 PM
nic said...: Jonny:

The state-by-state breakdown of presidential polling is on the left (under the pie charts).

:>; August 9, 2008 11:07 PM
Jack said...: clarkejeffrey, I am confused. Ras. had the bad Ohio figure. You gave an explanation. BUT, and I could be wrong,his site does not refer to this Ohio figure, but uses another figure. I've probably confused you. Also his MOE makes him less reliable than other polls, does it not? Help me out. Jack; August 10, 2008 12:33 PM
filistro said...: test; August 10, 2008 2:47 PM
greenchiledem said...: Good job Nate.
Blow a tube.; August 10, 2008 7:42 PM
TeddyBlogger said...: Hope they use you more as we do the GE run up. I'm going to leave a message for Rachel Maddow to get you on her radio show. Maybe some others can too. Hint, hint.

feedback@airamerica.com

Couldn't find a specific link to her but this is the one for Air America. I just addressed a note to her at that address.; August 10, 2008 11:32 PM
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酒店上班請找艾葳 said...: 艾葳酒店經紀公司提供專業的酒店經紀, 酒店上班小姐,八大行業,酒店兼職,傳播妹,或者想要到打工兼差、打工,兼差,或者八大行業,酒店兼職,想去酒店上班, 日式酒店,制服酒店,ktv酒店,禮服店,整天穿得水水漂漂的,還是想去制服店當上班小姐,水水們如果想要擁有打工工作、晚上兼差工作、兼差打工、假日兼職、兼職工作、酒店兼差、兼差、打工兼差、日領工作、晚上兼差工作、酒店工作、酒店上班、酒店打工、兼職、兼差、兼差工作、酒店上班等,想了解酒店相關工作和特種行業內容,想兼職工作日領、假日兼職、兼差打工、或晚班兼職想擁有快速賺錢又有保障的工作嗎???又可以現領請找專業又有保障的艾葳酒店經紀公司!

艾葳酒店經紀是合法的公司工作環境高雅時尚，無業績壓力，無脫秀無喝酒壓力，高層次會員制客源，工作輕鬆，可日領、現領。
一般的酒店經紀只會在水水們第一次上班和領薪水時出現而已，對水水們的上班安全一點保障都沒有！艾葳酒店經紀公司的水水們上班時全程媽咪作陪，不需擔心！只提供最優質的酒店上班,酒店上班,酒店打工環境、上班條件給水水們。心動嗎!? 趕快來填寫你的酒店上班履歷表

水水們妳有缺現領、有兼職、缺錢卡奴的煩腦嗎?想到日本留學缺錢嗎?妳是傳播妹??想要擁有高時薪又輕鬆的夜間兼職工作,打工機會和,假日打工,假日兼職賺錢的機會嗎??想實現夢想卻又缺錢沒錢嗎!??
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等相關服務幫您快速的實現您的夢想~!!; September 11, 2009 7:57 AM
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菲
 梵,; October 8, 2009 6:42 AM

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