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103 comments
Impressive performance.
I'm just curious about something.
It looks like he caught you offguard on the baseball questions. Have you switched fulltime to politics? How do you keep up with following all this stuff at the same time?
Ever do any stock market analysis?
That is the ultimate numbers game challenge.
I think there can be a bit of confusion for those watching, in that your baseball predictions don't necessarily relate to your election predictions.
That's because in baseball, past performance is a strong predictor of future performance, along with a host of other quantifiable factors. That's not the case in politics, where a single story can change the entire perception of a candidate, as in today.
I think the baseball work is more akin to the polling ratings, as well as the height of the bar for X candidate in X state (much higher in CA than TX for McCain, or WY versus IL for Obama).
In other words, your work does a great job of showing where states fall between favored Obama and McCain (also in the Scenario analysis), but we're all in the dark in regards to how the national numbers will shift in the coming days, which affects each state separately. We can see that WI will go Dem unless MI doesn't, but we don't know if some scandal will break that will send both either way.
You compensate for this somewhat with the Super Tracker, but as the data shows and as you said tonight, the numbers will probably swing quite a bit in the coming days. It's a pity that we don't have more data points on what underlying factors tend to affect votes more (economically especially, but then again, I'm not sure I would like a Pres election every year.
Keep up the good work, Nate. I've been a fan since you started this site, and I hope your success continues.
One last request - would it be possible for you to release your past data for additional crunching, such as the EV, Win %, and Pop. Vote predictors?
There's a wealth of data there for showing which narratives affected the race in which ways.
I like how you dropped the "pick Schweitzer" and "Gang of 10 checkmate" for Senator Obama.
Nate, I gotta say "Good Job"!
I don't watch MSNBC because they are just awful but you were very impressive. You explained everything clearly and you even outshine that Olberman dude. He's got the personality of a parking meter.
If you can somehow take Chris Matthews job... I'll watch for sure.
Anyway... congrats and I actually am rooting for you here. I think it would be awesome if you nail it.
Well done Nate. Handled his questions well, explained your site to the public far better than I've been able to explain it to my wife, and managed to call the Cubs' continued disappointment. Bravo!
From a hollywood perspective, I'd recommend tilting your chin up a bit more next time. Also, it's easier to say than do, but just stay calm. Sometimes when you were talking, you'd raise your eyebrows as a reflex you probably weren't aware you were doing, as well as speak faster. You were rarely lost for words, which is a great plus for the world of tele-punditry, good delivery on the dart-board pollsters and you analysis of Obama's oil plan decision.
So yeah. I feel terrible haranguing you after a nation-wide TV appearance, you did kick ass. Congrats!
Lifelong Cubs fan:
The Cubs are definitely winning it all this year!!! You should know that by now!!!
The rest of me:
You're doing a great job. I enjoy reading your analysis on everything. Admittedly I am not familiar with the exact equations you are using, but what amount of your manipulations could be done analytically as compared to numerically? My background is in math, so I tend to doubt numerical results more than analytical results. I'll end by saying that I realize that the amount of error induced by sampling likely dwarfs any numerical error.
Lifelong Sox Fan:
Daniel is sadly delusional.
Hey Nate, (Poblano) that was so cool to see you on Countdown. I first caught your projections at Daily Kos around the first of the year. I know nothing about statistics, but I'm a Red Sox, Dodgers fan, and I know nothing about stats, either. I just know talent. You got it. Lots. Way ta go. Big fan. Keep it up. Oh, and Gobama.
I just caught the post that you were going to be on a little before Countdown started. Glad I did - was great.
Great job, Nate!! I love your site, and I hope to see you on more shows in the future. I really do hope for great things to come your way (sounds like some already are!). The world needs more talented, gracious, and humble people; I just know you're going to be the go to person for these sorts of predictions, just wait and see.
Congratulations, Nate!
Good performance of you and Keith. I remember your interview on CNN a few weeks ago, those guys were a bit less interested in how your model actually works, but Keith did a good job, it seems he was genuinely interested. And I also realized you two have similar background, switching from sports to politics.
Anyways, keep up the good work, you´re on to something.
Well done, but you don't know anything about energy policy, and I wish you'd admit that.
Congrats Nate, and all you guys, for getting some long-overdue prime time national exposure. You've definitely made the number-crunching and poll watching a hell of a lot more interesting and intelligent. Keep up the good work.
Nate is clearly on his way. First Karl Rove and now Bathtub Boy. Olbermann is literally painful to listen. He is such a hack for the Democrats. He makes Sean Hannity seem fair and balanced indeed.
I think the Gang of Ten stuff was misplaced, as a statatician Nate should stick to the cold hard truth inhrerent in the numbers and the policy positions to us! LOL
Fact is the Gand of Ten compromise is going nowhere.
Obama is already on vacation and has left his goal undefended.
I like how you present your senate score card. Could you do that for the presidential election too? It makes it easier to follow how the states are changing.
Well done Nate -- you acquitted yourself well. Hope to see you on TV again sometime. And tangentially, 538 is my favorite new site of the year.
(I am almost ready to forgive you now for the high PECOTA projection on Felipe Lopez.)
I think the opinion on the energy bill could have been prefaced by a "I'm partial to Obama here" caveat, but otherwise a good interview.
Mark said...
"I like how you dropped the "pick Schweitzer" and "Gang of 10 checkmate" for Senator Obama."
Indeed, nice plug of Schweitzer and "checkmate" - two possible Obama game-changing decisions. As the late George Carlin said of Olbermann and Countdown, "This is best news show on television."
Olbermann has a habit of inviting smart, outside the MSM pundits and experts like yourself and Sam Seder onto his show. I hope Keith has you on as a regular.
Now the real question: what kind of boost in site-views do you think you'll get? Any takers for bets on this one?
good stuff nate. concise. well thought out answers. somehow that reminds a little (just a little though) of the first batch of obama interviews. im so over the punditocracy. But hey, i hope you're back soon, and then perhaps if you don't change too much (i know you might have to adapt a bit), i just might tune in quite reguarly to catch a glimpse of you.
anyhow, congrats. and keep up the good analysis. don't ever think that you have to post so much in any one day that the quality suffers. because the complexity and real-life feel is what's drawn so many of us here. tx man.