(As inspired by Mark Halperin).
- To speak to a national television audience at least once a week through a variety of venues.
- To speak to age 18-30 voters on a regular basis, through mechanicsms such as online chats that you host at your website.
- To develop a 30-second soundbyte answer to the question of high gas prices that everybody can recite by rote.
- To embody some of Bill Clinton, let your guard down, and speak to people's economic pain every day.
- To embody some of Hillary Clinton, develop more than one gear, and keep the McCain team off-balance.
- To speak to the importance of your role as a father, and to use it to highlight the moral imperative that we face in keeping the environment safe for our children.
- To pick some quick-and-dirty populist pieces of legislation that appeal to particular swing constituencies, such as the Airline Passenger's Bill of Rights.
- To determine whether Hillary Clinton is able and willing to be a high-profile surrogate for you and, if so, to deploy her on the trail immediately.
- To get some better advertising people, and run more ads less often rather than fewer ads more often.
- To quit being so deferential to John McCain.
- To let the press in all the way, except FOX NEWS.
- To avoid the temptation to pick a Vice President by focus group.
- To make some high-profile admission of an error in judgment that you made, and to get your self-effacing sense of humor back.
- To highlight an issue like your support for gays in the military that polls better than the Republicans realize, and attempt to lure them into re-fighting the culture wars.
- To continue going after uncharted ground like Montana, North Dakota and Indiana where the McCain campaign can't spend resources without losing face.
- To poll the hell out of the cellphone problem and determine if it gives you an advantage, and if so, in which states.
- To quit acting like you have a 10-point lead. You don't.
Note: This is analysis, not advice.
7.24.2008
What Barack Obama Needs to Win
@ 7:12 PM
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
122 comments
amen to all of that, especially his need to appeal more the 18-30 crowd, which, lest he forget, constitutes a bigger part of his base than he seems to think. And constitutes almost ALL of his most enthusiastic supporters
Yes, I agree!
Obama's biggest error so far is NOT GOING AFTER McCAIN.
Attack more. There's no pushback right now either.
Well said.
Obama can't win. McCain for 08 and Hillary for 12 and 16.
The new Rasmussen polls show Hillary having a greater lead again J-Mac than The O-Man
I hope he listens to one of the smartest guys I "know."
Good points all across.
Its panic time on the oba-media front. Obama's turn to the values of the European continent is complete.
Help me Halperin, you're my only hope....help me halperin you're my only hope.
From Barry Obama to Darth Nobama. Your master has trained you well.
Furthermore, after the rise of the "citizen of the world" in Germany, I fully expect the Barry may be the Anti-Christ.
Crowd chanting:
No-ba-ma.....no-ba-ma.....no-ba-ma....
Good advice mostly. Hope he heeds the need for offense.
Especially the advice to quit being so deferential to McCain & his team. It may be nice - but he must show toughness.
SMACK him back when he attacks with a smile on your face.
Negative ads by 527's starting to show up already here in FL on cable - have you seen the "2 faces of Barack" ads ??? shameless...
BTW - the WINNING position would be the ultimate populist stand to call out the BIG oil companies on their lack of 'patriotism' in this energy crisis.
of course they really are multi-nationals BUT Exxon et al are bleeding this country dry for short-term profit.
Tie them directly to Bush & Cheney [BIG OIL] and to McCain & Graham. Insist that Big Oil start drilling IMMEDIATELY on all their current leases OR fine them & take back the leases to give to the independents ready to drill now.
That is a winner for the vast majority of citizens.
Great advice...I mean analysis, Nate. I would only object to the last item, and it gets a misunderstanding that's coloring many of your posts. You tend to have a game-to-game view of the election, when the Obama team appear to be managing for the long haul. So your analysis often sound like game thread gripes on Sons of Sam Horn, where posters tear Francona apart for sitting Manny Ramirez or something. In fact, Tito is making sure his troops will be fresh down the stretch and into the playoffs.
Though the campaign is making mistakes (and I agree the media/ad team is pretty poor), they're clearly taking the long view. They had a patient plan that they never strayed from in the primaries, and now in the general, it looks like what they're doing is getting some fundamental narrative issues out of the way. Neither the "move to the middle" nor the Barack World Tour is meant to drive short term polling bumps. The centrist gestures are meant to innoculate him from criticism later, while this trip will create stock footage and vague impressions of a commanding overseas presence to voters. Think of them as opening set up moves in chess; they're meant to move Obama to a stronger position later, not to be evaluated in a vacuum. This is especially true since the undecided voters tend to be low-information types not really paying attention right now. No matter how badly McCain flails and well Obama appears, nothing that the campaigns do right now will move numbers dramatically, absent a huge, culture-penetrating gaffe. What he needs to do right now is to set up for the fall and avoid big mistakes.
So it's short-sighted to try to evaluate Obama's moves by looking at short-term polling trends. I would, however, like to see Obama define McCain more effectively.
The question should be how can McCain win, he can`t get out of the low forties. Polls don`t mean much until after the conventions and debates.
Jack,
It's funny that the "Antichrist" chose to borrow his words from Ronald Reagan:
Ronald Reagan, speaking in remarks in New York City Before the United Nations General Assembly Special Session Devoted to Disarmament
June 17th, 1982
Mr. Secretary-General, Mr. President, distinguished delegates, ladies and gentlemen:
"I speak today as both a citizen of the United States and of the world."
Barack Obama, speaking today in Berlin:
"I come to Berlin as so many of my countrymen have come before. Tonight, I speak to you not as a candidate for President, but as a citizen - a proud citizen of the United States, and a fellow citizen of the world."
(I posted this in the previous thread, but repost here in case others haven't seen this yet).
Nate,
The Projection Map and Election Statistics are updated, but the Simulation Results are still from yesterday.
Are you waiting for the R2K ND results to be added in, or did you just forget? Or something else?
.
Interesting to say the least that the recent shifts in the EV Distribution are now peaking McCain/Red @ 240+/- & around 265+/- indicating a possible long election night & closer EV campaign than anyone on either side cares to go through yet again.
I may put money down on the 268 EV parlay as a winnable longshot since more & more of those potential scenarios seem to be coming into play this summer.
First of all, I think updates every two days is quite sufficient. You guys are like drug addicts. Maybe some need to check into the 538 rehab center.
By the way ajb, many on the left thought RR was the anti-christ. Of course, now he is dead. That leaves the "Chosen One"
Of course Hillary is a better Candidate than Barack, heres why:
1. The economy has become the #1 issue. Hillary got real strong in the primaries when the economy became #1, but it was too late.
2. Barack was the anti Iraq candidate, unfortunately Iraq has improved significantly, and leaving isn't as high a priority as it was 6 months ago.
Obama won the Primary in Jan & Feb when it was all about Iraq. Hill won Mar, Apr & May when it was the economy. Hill would crush McCain because of the economy. She would crush anybody because of the Clinton name.
Neither McCain or Obama know how to talk about the economy. Barack gets an advantage because he's a democrat but he doesen't "feel they're pain" any more than McCain does.
McCain is a well known war hero against the unknown black guy named Hussein who's father is from Kenya. And everyone wonders why it's close?
The US is the most backward country of any industrialized nation. We're the only country still debating Global warming. Obama is a global candidate, McCain is a traditional American candidate. The US is fighting the urge to join the global community because it wants to remain in the 60's 70's and 80's. But the world has changed.
Younger Americans understand the change and see Obama as the leader in the World as it exists today. Older Americans grew up in a different time and are unsure of the new world and thus see McCain as a "Safer" choice. Sooner or later the US will join the rest of the world, it will be better off in the long run if it does it now.
Good advice/analysis, but Obama doesn't really *need* to do these things...
He simply has to contrast himself (inspirational, hopeful, and a prospect for real change) with McCain (the angry old man who wants to continue Bush's failed policies in Iraq and on the economy).
Obama should hit McCain hard on Social Security. I can't believe McCain's proposed resurrection of Bush's failed SS gambit just flew right by the MSM and into the ether. If the Obama camp can gets the word to seniors about McCain and SS, Florida will be ripe for the pickings. And if Florida is lost, Mccain has no chance.
Naomi-
I agree on SS. and go back to tieing McCain to Bush & Cheney [aka BIG OIL] - that is a BIG winner for him.
Another thing you can add:
Stop acting like this is the primary, we're now in the general.
Go on the attact, your opponent is a media darling.
Obama need to borrow the Clinton spin machine. His campaign is not as good in a media fight using sound bites and a consistent attack message.
If he fixes this problem, he will win. If he doesen't, its going to be another nail biter.
You mean the One with so much advantage and can't grow his lead over a poorly run McCain campaign and he needs some press man to give him pointers? Where did I hear this before, why can't he close the deal, just why can't he close the deal? He is acting as if the election is over - the talk about a big transition planning team, go to overseas and speak as if he is the second coming of JFK and has his own presidential seal - big mistakes in the eyes of American voters. If Obama is not at least 5 points ahead in the polls average, he will lose on election day. Obama underperformed dems primary exit polls by an avg of 7 points and that's the dems primary, imagine how many liars are there in the general polls now?
That's an impressive list. I do wonder about the effectiveness of reigniting the culture wars. Seems like it would just drive up conservative turnout.
@ Clintonian...
"Obama can't win.”
Then why the hell are you visiting a site explicitly designed for predicting the outcome of the 2008 election?
Obama has no plan to lower gas prices, so how can he develop a soundbyte announcing his plan to lower gas prices?
Lowering gas prices is something Obama has no plan or desire to do.
Given McCain's strength with the geritol crowd, why isn't Obama going after McCain's "Social Security is a disgrace" comment. Plus McCain's plan to privatize SS could be easily ridiculed given how poor the stock market has been.
"By the way ajb, many on the left thought RR was the anti-christ."
Yes, and many of us are still not that fond of him or his legacy!
I was born in the last year of the Nixon presidency, and would have to say that there's been a pretty poor run of American presidents during my lifetime. I don't have any hesitation in saying that I think Bill Clinton was the best president of my lifetime, but I'd like to see someone do better!
On the topic of Nate's post, I actually think Obama's right to play it pretty cool right now. McCain's been on the attack a lot, and has landed a few punches, but he's also had a bunch of misses, and has come off as a bit grumpy and petty and unfocused.
When you look at the two-term presidents of my lifetime -- Reagan, Clinton, Bush the Younger -- they've won, I think, because they've seemed optimistic but empathetic. The last two in particular used their own personal biography as a way to connect with voters and convince them that they cared.
That approach has consistently won out against war heroes who tell people that life is tough and serious and that they've got the answers to our problems -- Bush the Elder, Dole, Kerry.
I'll add one:
- To learn to give a knee-jerk reaction when one is called for. (For example, when asked about some hypothetical attack, start with a steely "I would do whatever was necessary to defend my country" rather than his usual "Well, in the first place, I wouldn't...")
I was apprehensive about Obama's foreign tour from the beginning. The press has been great, the photo ops fantastic, and in interviews wonderful. But and it is a big but, is it doing anything to help his run for the presidency? It might of been a better bet to stay at home and continue to engage McCain on the issues at close quarters.
How about:
>Um, uh, you know, do not attempt to speak without a Teleprompter
>Lose the arrogance
>Take 1 position on each issue and stick with it
>Go back to the Senate and get some experience
>Admit you are a Marxist and see how your poll numbers move
>Pick Bernie Sanders as a running mate to move the ticket to the center
Great list. The Clintons would be especially great for Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania.
New Rasmussen PA poll:
Obama: 47 Mccain:42
w/ leaners
Obama: 51 Mccain: 45
It's funny how confident some of these McCain supporters have gotten due to a handful of good state polls (though not one national poll shows McCain ahead).
Based on the Intrade numbers and the lines on betting sites, it seems they aren't putting their money where their mouth is.
Personally, I have a new found confidence that McCain is hopeless.
I find that PA poll very relieving. McCain has been absolutely hammering Pennsylvania and it's key for him. For Obama creep up, even if it's slight, is very good news.
"...except FOX news..."
Where am I, DailyKos? Paranoid vindictiveness benefits no one.
Obama can lock up the vote tonight, if he wanted, thusly:
1) Drill drill drill
2) Secure the border
3) Develop flying cars
That's really all it would take. And if you think I put that 3rd one in there just to be amusing, I assure you - oh yes, I assure you - that the American zeitgeist (that's German!) burns for flying cars.
So the new Rasmussen PA poll defies the general trend in that Obama has inched slowly ahead -- from +2 in May to +4 in June to +5 today.
Again, of course, it is surprising that Obama would be farther ahead (albeit very slightly) in both Michigan and Pennsylvania than in Minnesota.
This was the first PA poll in more than a month?
Why does Rasmussen have so many more polls than everybody else? Who is paying him anyway?
Some good points certainly, Obama definitely needs a clear, positive message on gas prices. I like Noami's SS angle, too. Having said that, I basically agree with a lot of Ryan's points. I trust Obama team's long term plan, not perfect, but damn good. That same team and long term strategy essentially out played team Clinton in the primaries. Given their track record, I'm going to minimize second guessing them.
One more thing, Jack be Nimble can you check me into that 538 rehab?
Obama underperformed dems primary exit polls by an avg of 7 points and that's the dems primary, imagine how many liars are there in the general polls now?"
None. All the liars are already supporting McCain. He's cornered the market.
Why would anybody lie? They can just say: "I like McCain. Obama's too inexperienced. And it has NOTHING to do with the fact that he's black. In fact, some of my best friends are black. And I even voted for a black kid for Class President once in High School. So there."
Obama Pollster Pimp O-P-P
What my homies are calling me
I turn red states into blue
With regression analysis version 2
White bitter hick with gun & bible
Votin for a Repub just like a KKK revival
Don’t bring up pfleger rezko ayres or wright
That will get you in a racial fight
Forget about dissin michelle or farakkan
Your next job is mowin my lawn
Call him by his middle name
Yuz gettin the brothers & terrorists in your game
Old garlic eating former VP candidate
Dissed Mr. O cuz she was full of hate
Hil’s a pimp, brush your shoulders off
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sKeW1TLjMrs&feature=related
Me & my homies laffin our asses off
Obama don’t need to debate
Homies doing his dirty work make him great
We ain’t stopping till the white house turns black
And your rich white 401K is in our sack
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ScL8EoPqwDk
Now enuff with my rhyme
Gotta turn red into blue one mo time
One other point everyone seems to be forgetting is the classic Republican tactic: "I'll lower your taxes". For some people, that's all they need to hear, especially now that times are tough. In this case, Obama is the one who would lower taxes for the vast majority of people and small businesses more than McCain would. I think most people don't realize that, especially since the Republicans keep telling (even to low and medium income voters) that Obama would raise taxes.
So I really think he should make an ad on this topic and keep it running until November. It could be as simple as showing this table. I think it would be very effective.
Absolutely right on all counts. If the Obama camp would these simple points and not do something really stupid, I can't see how they'd lose.
I gotta laugh at the ignorant comments about Hillary being a better candidate. Who cares about polls with Hillary as a candidate? THey are hypothetical - they mean nothing. 48% of the population will never vote for Hillary. NEVER. Hillary and McCain would be a wire to wire finish. Obama is higher risk - higher reward too.
If Hillary was the candidate, we'd hear 24/7 about Bill's idiotic dealings post-presidency.
Those who think Hillary would be a slam dunk are just clueless.
As about long-term vs. short-term tactics, it's obvious that the Obama camp is saving the big guns for later. Now while I think that's better than the McCain camp who just seems to throw everything out as fast as they can, it's also dangerous, because undecided people are easier to swing than those who have already made up their mind (since the preference for a candidate is self-reinforcing). So I think he really shouldn't wait much longer before hitting back, or it might be too late.
I'm a conservative and I think Obama will win- but am curious what will happen to him if he loses?
Clinton would run in 4 yrs for sure- and if Obama lost- she would likely beat him in a primary if he were to win. Would Obama still be a candidate for presidency in the future? McCain would certainly be done except for another Senate run if he chooses- but I have no idea what would be in store for Obama- any ideas?
Let's say he loses a close races-and at the end there were dirty/racist etc. moves pulled by McCain - I feel like his supporters would be outraged- and stand behind him like Dems did for Gore- except there would be more of a push for him to run again compared to Gore.
About Hillary being the better candidate. First, I don't think she's be a bad president (certainly waaay better than McCain). But to compare these two candidats now that Obama is under constant scrutiny and Republican attacks is silly. The last thing people heard of Hillary was the Unity speech and her "selfless" support for Obama. Of course she seems likable now, but had she won the primaries, the Republicans would have done all to portray her as everything from Hitler to the Antichrist. See "Hillary the Movie" on Youtube for an idea of what they had in store for her (it's not a nice thing to see, even for "Hillary-haters").
Hillary ran a terrible campaign. I was surprised and disappointed. She lost to a candidate who ran a much better campaign. She had a losing message, bad money management, poor strategy, no plan for winning caucus votes and no plan for campaigning after Super Tuesday. Plus she had spent all her enormous sums by Super Tuesday. Why would anyone think she would run a better campaign now than she did in the primaries?
She might beat McCain because he is running an even worse campaign, but it would be still be very difficult for her to win. The GOP has boxes of files of material to use against Hillary. I'm sure a lot of it is about Bill. Probably much of it is not true, but they wouldn't stop them from using it. I'm sure they are very disappointed she is not the nominee.
Interesting analysis of what Obama can do to up his numbers. I don't agree with a couple of them, but I think the 30-second soundbyte on gas prices is a must. It should include a very short phrase that would make a good bumper sticker.
To speak to age 18-30 voters on a regular basis, through mechanicsms such as online chats that you host at your website.
I'm skeptical--I'd be very impressed if I saw a campaign figure out how to get the young voters who need to be engaged to find their way to such a chat. But I can see an effective strategy of having young voters hear more through pop-culture figures they watch (Nas's recent appearance on Colbert multiplied and diversified, in short).
Nate, I love this place and I love what you bring to the table, BUT
Posts like this -- and Halperin's idiotic McCain one as well -- are frustrating because they are just so much whining from the cheap seats. If any of you could actually run campaigns, I suspect you might actually go run campaigns.
This is all like a discussion about what would have happened at Waterloo if Napolean had a B-1 bomber. If Barak stays with his longterm strategy (like he did in the primary) and wins (like he did in the primary against one of the most formidible candidates ever), all this discussion will be conveniently slipped down the memory hole. If he loses, you will all be talismanic gurus of political excellence.
For a polling site, by the way, there is an amazing dearth of empirical back up for any of these suggestions. They are, in fact, personal fantasies rather than knowledge or experience based analysis (and calling amatuer advice "analysis" don't make it so).
I'm a staunch social liberal and fiscal conservative and as blue as they come and yet I have to disagree with one piece of advice to Barack Obama.
It is a sad trend in this country that, over the last 25 years (ever since President Reagan got elected and Democrat became a bad word) people don't talk with each other about divisive issues. There is never any harm in talking -- you can always get up from the table with the same disagreements you had when you sat down but being open allows for a free exchange of ideas and, heaven forbid, some problem solving.
This country has some serious problems we need to solve. And refusing to talk -- just as refusing to allow FOX News to be allowed into the mix -- only ostracizes people. Whether or not we liberals (or Democrats or Moderates) like it, FOX News is a force to be reckoned with. Ignoring them just pisses them off. The best way to make sure someone isn't going to buy into a solution is not to include them in that solution at all.
I'm not saying that you have to give in to peoples' demands. But the time for political zealotry and demagoguery is over. Congress is so polarized there is no middle and the middle people are the ones who get things done.
This is what we need in a leader now. This is what true unification is about. Find middle ground, give some, get some. Yes, it's old-fashioned politics. But old-fashioned politics worked a hell of a lot better than it does now.
I very much would like to see a similar list for McCain.
plink,
that's what that Mark Halperin link at the top is for (just click on his name) -- similar advice to McCain.
plink, please click on Mark Halperin's name in the article. It links to his list for McCain.
Great post, all good advice - umm - analysis. The most important item in the list: To quit being so deferential to John McCain.
I'm sorry to say it, but mud slinging demagoguery works. It worked for Bush with the 87 billion quote and the mocking flip flop chant. With that one quote - and Rove's response to it - Kerry lost control of his public image. That's how politics works.
Obama needs to be a little careful, because he promises a new kind of politics, not just the old tired rhetoric, etc. But when McCain says something ridiculous - which happens daily - it is fair game to not only call him on it, but to use it to define him. That's how you win.
Obama should have seized on McCain's quote about drilling in the gulf not yielding "any immediate relief" but having "psychological impact" as strongly as Karl Rove seized on the 87 billion comment. Rove would have effectively used that "psychological" quote to finish his opponent. He would have made the word into a joke that defined his opponent.
Obama should have immediately started referencing that in every speech, making it sound like an absurdity to hurting, "whining" Americans. The way Bush waved flip flops over his head mockingly while the crowd chanted "flip flop," Obama should have started saying "we need real change, substantive change, change that will make energy affordable, homes affordable, life affordable. Americans who've lost their homes don't just need psychological change. Americans who can't afford to drive to work don't just need psychological change. Americans whose jobs are less secure in this economy - or who have already lost them - don't just need psychological change."
"And what kind of change is John McCain promising?"
And the crowd screams "PSYCHOLOGICAL!"
It makes McCain a joke the way flip flop and 87 billion made Kerry a joke. If Obama wants to take the high road and leave out the call and response bit at the end, he'd miss the most powerful tool for taking control of McCains public image, but he may need to do that to play it safe on the "new kind of politics" front. But he's not even giving the first part of the speech.
McCain made that quote exactly one month ago. His numbers have only risen since then because Obama missed a good chance to take control. He allowed the past month to be dominated by a conversation about himself. Do people trust him to be Commander in Chief, Is his trip abroad appropriate, why won't he admit he was wrong about the surge, etc. Those questions were framed by McCain, and they are the reason the race has turned (slightly) his way.
The way to win is to control the national conversation by making it about the other guy and his foolishness. If Obama insists on avoiding that, he's going to have trouble, because McCain will keep making it about him. There is a long way to go and still time for Obama to get it together and cream McCain, who is totally vulnerable.
But if Obama thinks he can just ignore McCain and run around saying "change" until November, however eloquently, it may not be enough.
Why would anyone give a damn about what Mark Halperin says? He's never run a presidential campaign or consulted on one. He's basically a stenographer who happens to be less physically unattractive than other print media-types. But what he does share in common with them is incredible superficiality, below normal analytic skills and a big picture view that runs from A to B.
Obama and his advisers are incredibly adept & prescient about how to win the presidency, which will be realized on November 4th.
NATE--YOUR SCENARIO ANALYSIS IS INCORRECT...IT IS LINKING TO OH/PA AS OPPOSED TO OH/MI!!!!!!!!
NATE--YOUR SCENARIO ANALYSIS IS INCORRECT...IT IS LINKING TO OH/PA AS OPPOSED TO OH/MI!!!!!!!!
NATE--YOUR SCENARIO ANALYSIS IS INCORRECT...IT IS LINKING TO OH/PA AS OPPOSED TO OH/MI!!!!!!!!
My advice to Obama:
--Don't listen to the cacophony of bloggers freaking out over poll numbers in mid-July.
--Build up massive GOTV infrastructure in numerous sates; actually, why not go ahead and hire thousands of staffers in all 50.
--Before the convention, build up your foreign policy cred. Go to Afghanistan, Iraq, and Europe, where you will get some great visuals that you will use...
--After the convention, let loose with all you've got on the air and on the ground. On the air, where your cash advantage will enable you to run more ads in more places than your opponent, on the ground where the dozens of offices you had quietly set up while no-one was paying attention start firing on all cylinders.
--Remind Nate Silver that this is still the preseason, and he should stop being such a nervous nellie.
Don --
Exactly and we gotta remember that the Olympics are gonna be everything in news (and politics)for a couple of weeks in August. Once schools start back up and soccer and football begin, then people will be watching more of this stuff and we can "advise or analyze" with a better grip on the true dynamics.
The problem with relying on voters under 30 --and I'm allowed to say this, because I am one-- is that they have notoriously short attention spans. If they were paying attention to politics for the first time when it was time to vote for Obama during the primaries, they're going to be getting bored right about now as Obama moves to the center.
Mark Halperin. Ugh. Really?
He is not this creative - not by a long shot. I mean, have you seen his weekly "scorecard" report? Frankly, he is the embodiment of what is wrong with the MSM in the US.
Basically, what I'm saying is ... Mark Halperin makes me sad ... very very sad. *Sigh*
Hello everyone,
As you know I am not a very political person. I just wanted to pass along that Senator Obama came to Bagram, Afghanistan for about an hour on his visit to "The War Zone". I wanted to share with you what happened.
He got off the plane and got into a bullet proof vehicle, got to the area to meet with the Major General (2 Star) who is the commander here at Bagram.
As the Soldiers where lined up to shake his hand he blew them off and didn't say a word as he went into the conference room to meet the General. As he finished, the vehicles took him to the ClamShell (pretty much a big top tent that military personnel can play basketball or work out in with weights) so he could take his publicity pictures playing basketball. He again shunned the opportunity to talk to soldiers to thank them for their service.
So really he was just here to make a showing for the Americans back home that he is their candidate for President. I think that if you are going to make an effort to come all the way over here you would thank those that are providing the freedom for you.
I swear we got more thanks from the NBA Basketball Players or the Dallas Cowboy Cheerleaders than from one of the Senators, who wants to be the President of the United States. I just don't understand how anyone would want him to be our Commander-and-Chief. It was almost that he was scared to be around those that provide the freedom for him and our great country.
If this is blunt and to the point I am sorry, but I wanted you all to know what kind of caliber of person he really is. What you see in the news is all fake.
In service,
CPT Jeffrey S. Porter
Battle Captain
TF Wasatch
American Soldier
The military vote is already overhwhelmingly Republican and backing McCain, looks like Obama is just trying to not get any military vote(except for the African-American military)
"To develop a 30-second soundbyte answer to the question of high gas prices that everybody can recite by rote."
OK, here's my pitch ... and, Senator Obama, you are free to use it (and hopefully improve it substantially). =)
30-SECOND GAS PRICE SOUNDBYTE (by GaMeS):
"Offshore drilling to lower gas prices is like planting wheat after breakfast to make bread for dinner."
Thoughts? Too abstract? Not enough punch? At the very least, it's really easy to remember ... so go out and repeat it ad nauseum. =)
Don,
Point taken about mid-July polls. Whether Obama is up by 2 or 6 is almost meaningless.
Except he is acting as though he is up by 30.
This post was titled "What Obama needs to do to win." And since the race could clearly play out either way at this point, the argument about how to get from here to there is relevant.
And I would say that the most important item in your list approximates the one I dubbed as the most important in Nates (with the exception of "after the convention:"
--After the convention, let loose with all you've got on the air and on the ground.
"All you've got" on the air means not just spending money on ads. It also means free air time on the news every day defining your opponent. All the positive ads in the world might do it, because McCain is a weak candidate in a weak party. But they might not. For all the folks who won't be paying attention until the conventions, it wouldn't hurt for the image of McCain as out of touch to begin percolating. Now.
GaMeS,
I don't know if it will work in other states, but I think it's a great soundbite for FL, where people are torn between fear of offshore (off-beach) rigs and fear of the pump. I'm going to use it here. I'm not sure how it will play in Michigan or Colorado.
I think if it were followed by another equally succinct soundbite identifying what exactly we can do now that we've had lunch, you'd have it.
AWESOME!
Thanks for the drive-by e-mail smear.
Fake.
Good try GaMeS on the soundbyte.
How about it Obama just uses T Boone Pickens' soundbite: This is one emergency we can't drill our way out of.
I think it would be great if T Boone's words helped elect Obama. He did provide mucho money to the swiftboaters.
@9:38 Yay! More bullshit rumors being spread about Barrack!
You are doing your part as a McCain supporter to spread lies and fear, but truth and hope will win in the end. Count on it.
Everybody is panicking over the polls except the Obama campaign. I've heard from numerous reporters that they like where they are right now. The Obama campaign expects the race to stay close until the final week where it will break much like 1980. They really believe this and thats why they are so confident.
I do not know why they believe this, but their model says this is how its going to go down. They have been right about everything else this election, I trust their judgement.
to 9:38 poster:
Are there STILL people who believe those phony emails?
Oops. I meant Barack, not Barrack. In my defense, my spell checker changed it...
@Matt,
They may be looking at historical trends a la Larry Sabato, who makes a very convincing argument here: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=AIA2008072401
His analysis is sound, and he has a good track record to boot.
About the Citizen of the world comment: At least 13 US presidents have used the phrace. Among them both Bushes, Clinton and Reagan.
I've never quite understood Democratic hand-wringing. I am an Independent, who absolutely prays John McCain is not elected president. So, I am on your side -- completely. I like Obama and I think he'll win in November.
So much worry on this website about where the numbers are today. Do you think the GOP worries about being behind? Never, they just go on the offensive with dirty, indecent lies and smears. But the Dems, for some reason, try to win without fighting back. We saw it with Dukakis, Gore and Kerry. The only Dem candidate for President that has ever fought back, really pushed back hard was Clinton -- and he won.
Stop coming to this site to use it as your personal psychologist and start blogging on Right Wing sites, start volunteering for Obama's get out the vote, start hammering McCain at the water cooler tomorrow at work.
The GOP will never play fair -- if they did, McCain would lose by 17 points. Stop wishing they'd stop spreading nasty lies about Obama and start fighting their fire with your own.
I am appalled by the poor treatment of polling data in the MSM (I know, I'm naive, but I presume that the media in a democratic country should actually report and not just pass on the press releases they get from pollsters).
Take the Q polls today ... headline is "New state polls show good news for McCain". Even Nate bought into it.
Now, my constant refrain on this site is two-fold:
1. Never pay too much attention to any single poll, ever. So, for example, in MN there were two polls today: one at O+2, the other at O+13. Hard to figure how this is a good day for McCain in MN. Mr. Rasmussen, who has a likely voter model that's as conservative as it gets, has O+13.
2. Always look into the details of the polling numbers before you accept their headlines. So, for example, in MN again, the Q poll is weighted incorrectly. Now, you all know that I'm a big fan of weighting by party ID, but this isn't party ID. They blew the weighting on GENDER.
This is one that every good pollster ought to know. More women vote then men: by close to 9 million in the 2004 election, or 6%. But, if you run the numbers on the Q MN poll, you find that they weighted it 51/49 for men. Sorry folks. Even at 50/50, the final numbers should be O+3, and the 2004 Exit poll showed MN at 48/52 with the advantage to women, which gives you O+4, maybe O+4.5 if its 47/53.
So, now, do things look quite so good for McCain in MN? Not really. The more statistically conservative poll of the day gives him a -4, on data taken during Obama's worst week of polling in a month (the week before the trip overseas), while the other poll of the day shows -13. The daily average in MN: O+8.5. Nate has him at O+8.7 for the election.
Not really a good day for McCain. Sorry news hacks. He's losing big in MN (8.5 for the day), still losing in CO (see my earlier post in the other thread about how CO weighting of party ID is off and the Q data really indicates O+2 or so), losing in MI by 4, and losing WI by 11.
Oh yeah, and after the bell, Rasmussen has O+6 in PA and O+4 in NH.
tibor75 AND eve:
You both ARE so correct! I had to stop watching some of the cable shows because the endless babble of spin and speculation is just getting out of hand. Hillary Clinton WAS and IS a poor candidate. She shifted her "persona" from "experienced" politician to reformer to some sort of economic guru. Please. The woman couldn't even balance her own checkbook correctly for her campaign. She was supposedly the more "conservative" candidate, yet still wants Obama to pay off her own self-inflicted debts, the biggest shakedown I've seen in politics in a while.
What was even more laughable was the assertion that she was "strong" on economic issues. The woman hadn't ran anything in her life--she had NO managerial or executive experience. True, neither Obama or McCain have that either, but I never bought the "struggling mother" act she was spewing. The only thing she ever had to struggle with was whether to book a flight to Martha's Vineyard or the Adirondacks. If anyone has struggled financially, it is Obama.
A Clinton/McCain race would have gone down to the wire. Even though Obama is ahead in national polls, THEY DON'T REALLY MATTER. Only state-by-state polls matter, and according to trends OVER A FEW MONTHS, NOT A WEEK OR TWO, OBAMA IS DOING FINE. Does this mean he will win? Of course not. However, I have seen more data that shows him to be highly competitive than less competitive.
Obama may be going through some poll fluctuations, but at least he is running on his own name. Without Bill, Hillary was just Hillary, and she thought her last name would carry her through. She failed miserably. Obama is establishing his brand, not riding off the coattails of someone else. I have to respect that.
What sickens me is the blatant McCain bias in the media. They cover up all his flip-flops and misstatements that Obama would never have gotten a free pass on. Obama accidently says there are 57 states and there is something wrong with him. McCain confuses borders of important countries and its a "mistake". McCain is ahead in ONE Colorado poll and the world says Obama is in trouble. Obama maintains a deficit of only 2 points in North Dakota and it is ignored. McCain comes close in ONE Minnesota poll even though Obama has been ahead by an average of 10 points FOR MONTHS--and CNN changes the state to Toss-Up from Leans Democratic. Meanwhile, according to CNN, North Dakota and Georgia remain solidly Republican even though Obama has been competitive in those states.
McCain has gotten coverage in a Pennsylvania grocery store talking about the economy but comes across like some stiff man who forgot where he was. McCain probably hasn't been in a grocery store since Madonna released her first single, and we're supposed to believe he "understands" our economic pain. His wife charged $500,000 on a credit card and they default on a beachfront home and the media was silent. Can you imagine the media hoopla if the Obamas had done such a thing? Can you imagine if Michelle Obama said that Illinois was so big that only a chartered jet was suitable for traveling around the state? Well, Cindy McCain said that about Arizona last week and it received no coverage at all.
And the media is obsessed with Obama? I hardly think so.
Obama will win Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, and Pennsylvania. This media "panic" over a few polls is absolutely disgusting.
Some of the advice works, some is ridiculous. And honestly, it mostly sounds like I imagine the list of complaints from donors in August 2007 sounded like.
Everyone needs to calm down. He's not running like he is 10 pts ahead. He's running like he knows he needs to work his ass off to win. At the end of the day, he's still the long shot and he knows it.
?(p.s. it's July, folks.)
Anon @ 10:15 -- luckily, Obama doesn't act like most Democrats. He's not worried about being ahead and plans to continue to work like hell to make our dreams become a reality.
Yes, Obama has to appeal to his base and others; but, I am tired of listening to every pundit tell Obama what he needs to do or who he needs to be like (Hillary, Clinton, etc.). Why can't Obama be Obama. He has not failed so far. Yes he needs to go out there and remind the US people who just don't know him voters of who he is, but his base is solid. There is no question that if we really support him and spread the word (short of McCain stealing the election like Bush) he will be our next president. I am tired of listening to every pundit attempt to tell Obama what to do. Don't get me wrong, I respect the fact that the pundits are doing it with zest, zeal and a desire for him to win; but, let's have a little trust in Obama's strategy. His strategy has gotten him this far, maybe (without racism coming into the picture -- let's face it, America has a strong racial tendency especially in the older population -- even if the rest of the world does not) his strategy will get him the rest of the way.
can we make this a letter that we all sign and send into the campaign?
Your advice is spot on.
If people don't think Barack is in trouble, they're in denial. Every new poll out shows him sliding.
He better take some of this advice to heart. Supporters may need to try and push him to do it.
things that make you go hhmmmm....
I noticed references on this thread to new RR poll of PA tonight. I looked on their main page - no reference to new PA [only NH & daily tracking].
I was able to pull it up by searching on PA polls within the RR site.
BUT why is Scott releasing that important state poll so late in the day/evening ??? trying to bury it since it is showing an uptrend for the Obama - or do we chalk it up to harmless error.
Makes no sense since RR typically releases the state polls early enough to hit the MSM for maximum effect.
Think I saw Scott R. on Fox tonight talking about how McCain is trending UP...
makes me go hhhmmm....
Here's a thought, if Obama is serious about playing the whole 'unity' and 'post-partisan' thing, then wait until after McCain has nominated a VP and then nominate a Republican as his own VP selection.
Doesn't have to be a huge high profile Republican but that move alone would put him over the top and change the whole dynamic of the race.
Or, nominate a socially conservative VP if that's too extreme.
Because, you know, if he's serious about being post-partisan well.. then maybe he should act it. Lately Obama hasn't been deferential to McCain, more just ignoring him...
PS: Note about the Rasmussen PA poll.. he's gained between 1-2% points... that's within the margin of error of the last Rasmussen PA poll so there's no reason to try to bury it. It could just be statistical noise.
Its not bad news for Obama, but its not great news either really.
DCM. are you stupid or somthing? rasmussen doesnt care about the poll's he already said in his daily pres tracking that he releases data at 7,noon,3,and 5 at night, he sometime's say's what state's he's going to do and other time's he doesnt.
take for example the MT poll came out at 7am.
so i wouldnt go anywhere saying he's upset by the number's and that's why he posted them at 5 which he alway's does.
to SoOnt,
Monitoring us from Canada ? welcome.
It is not that the info in the RR poll of PA is so important - except that it contradicts the talking points of the day for the pundits on TV [ie that Obama is fading...]
Whether he is holding or inproving or noise in PA, it is the TIMING of the release of the poll & the fact that it is BURIED on the RR site that smells funny & makes me go hhmmmm...
Now if Scott R. had at least made a reference to those results [he did not as I recall] then I would say harmless error. Right now it smacks of spin...
Actually, of all the state polling results released this week, the RR numbers & Scott R.'s opinion on the Obama trend in PA is most surprising perhaps.
Well, except for trying to explain logically how the polls for MN could vary so widely in the same week.
McCain will pick Tom Ridge
--- That's who he likes
--- Puts PA in play
--- Gives Hillary Clinton 'pro
choice women' a reason to back
McCain, since Ridge is pro-
choice
--- Helps increase McCain's
Catholic vote
--- Doubles down on Defense and
National Sec vs. anyone Obama
may pick and go head to head in
debates
--- Looks Presidential and is Gov
of a big state and Ex
Congressman who has never lost
an election in PA
--- Impeccable integrity
anon @ 10:51
YOU are the dense one. Why is it still buried on the site ??? Scott R. NEVER misses an opportunity to plug his polls on FOX.
An are you a simpleton or what ? A 7 am release of a poll actually MAXIMIZES his potential media play - he gets leads on the AM shows besides a FULL days play on cable & the leads the blog chatter too.
You are missing something bud...
check yourself - go to RR site now.
you see any reference to a PA poll today ???
thought not. it typically is updated all day, although they do lag on the front political page.
The question is - why wait to release PA in particular so late in the day ???
just gamesmanship - not a big conspiracy. But Scott R. makes a habit of using his polls to promote an agenda [surprise] including the leading followup questions & push-polling techniques employed.
A question and observation:
1. Why do some Hillary supporters hate Obama? The two of them are basically in lock-step on the issues. Do they understand the idea of Supreme Court choices in the next 4 years? Healthcare, Woman's rights, does McCain really care about them? PUMA says country first, party second...but if they loved their country so much because of what Hillary could do, McCain is 180 degrees away from her.
2. As a Democrat, I know it's hind sight, but two years ago when Mark Warner decided not to run, I felt the Democrats lost their best chance. I think he would be 15 points ahead of McCain right now. If McCain wins, he may be the Dems best chance in the future.
It's not soundbyte, it's sound bite. (The term originates from television, not computers.)
I must agree. You seem to be correct about the release of the PA poll tonight.
Have not seen any mention of it on any other site this evening, and nothing on the cable shows either concerning PA results.
A lot of good advice there. McCain is bitch-slapping you three times a day, and saying your disappointed in him makes you a pussy. Pussies never get elected in the US. Kick that old farts ass up and down the street.
Here's a soundbite for Obama on gas prices:
We need to raise gas prices further so we will discourage usage and keep the atmosphere free of Co2, which is, by the way, what we exhale with every breath.
.....uh hmm, um hmm.....maybe with less people breathing, we can lower the greenhouse gases for everyone.....yea, that's it..that's the ticket.
[as also posted on the parallel poll thread]
Watching a rerun of Hannity on Faux right now to get their Fair & Balanced reporting...
Scott Rasmussen was just live with Hannity & he talked about how McCain's polling is improving !
Hannity showed today's poll results for MN, CO, WI & MI [Q's] plus RR's poll for NH.
NO mention of RR's poll of PA at all...
Very odd - or intentionally withheld ???
Wait, we're taking this seriously? I thought the whole thing was an amusing send-up of Mark Halperin and MSM talking points. Act like the Clintons? Quick-and-dirty legislation? "Soundbyte"? Get his self-effacing sense of humor back? Lure the Republicans into re-fighting the culture wars? Really?
I miss when this site was troll-free nerdiness.
**Sigh**
Oh, and Nate jumped the gun today--Rasmussen's new PA poll just blew your theory out of the water, but you weren't patient enough to wait for all the polls to come out.
Oliver,
I agree. Maybe it was just to promote dicussion - or perhaps to feed the beast.
IF the poll number need assistance AFTER the convention [or the debates ?]...
THEN maybe employ a classic 'Plan B' strategy. but not now
McCain has said before he wouldn't pick a pro-choice VP
What's all this nonsense about Rasmussen burying the PA poll? It was on the homepage when I looked at 5 EST this evening, and it's there now.
Anon@9:38pm, the smear e-mail / chain mail you posted has already been debunked. From the NY Daily News:
Army officials refute claim of Barack Obama snub in Afghanistan
By James Gordon Meek
DAILY NEWS WASHINGTON BUREAU
Thursday, July 24th 2008, 6:40 PM
WASHINGTON - The latest chain e-mail smear against Barack Obama: He "blew off" troops at an Afghan base to shoot hoops for a publicity photo.
The letter was apparently written by a Utah Army National Guard intelligence officer in a linguist unit at Bagram Airfield who claimed the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee was rude to G.I.s.
"As the soldiers where [sic] lined up to shake his hand he blew them off," wrote the Task Force Wasatch "battle captain."
But angry Army brass debunked the Obama-bashing soldier's allegations, which went viral Thursday over the Web and on military blogs such as Blackfive.
The e-mail claims Obama repeatedly shunned soldiers on his way to the Clamshell - a recreation tent - to "take his publicity pictures playing basketball."
"These comments are inappropriate and factually incorrect," said Bagram spokesman Army Lt. Col. Rumi Nielson-Green, who added that such political commentary is barred for uniformed personnel.
Obama didn't play basketball at Bagram or visit the Clamshell, he said. Home-state troops were invited to meet him, but his arrival was kept secret for security reasons.
"We were a bit delayed ... as he took time to shake hands, speak to troops and pose for photographs," Nielson-Green said.
E-mails to the officer who made the charges and a call to his wife were not returned.
.
People from the opposite side seem to overreacting now. The PA Poll went from +4 to +5 (or +6 with leaners which many of you have declared that they shouldn't be compared with old polls). This is hardly a change at all.
Look at Nate's Model for PA. +5.8 for Obama. Right in line with this poll. Nothing changed.
Some of the article's suggestions are good but reigniting the culture wars is always a disaster for Dems in presidential elections. The last thing Obama needs is to be discussing partial-birth abortions, gay marriage, and gun control.
Jack-be-nimble
This isn't a forum to moronically argue that global warming is not real- go somewhere else to spread your stupidity.
This site is about polling and analyzing the race through polling data, and comparing it to historical and political trends.
If you are going to troll and not use the stupid talking points at least make sure you utter some semblance of truth.
"These comments are inappropriate and factually incorrect," said Bagram spokesman Army Lt. Col. Rumi Nielson-Green, who added that such political commentary is barred for uniformed personnel.
Once again showing the Republicans are liars and traitors.
McCain has said before he wouldn't pick a pro-choice VP
McCain has said once before that he didn't oppose Roe v. Wade. Duh -- because it's hard to find an issue on which McCain hasn't reversed himself ... like, say, giving speeches abroad where he presumes himself to be the future President of the U.S.
ajb,
I just rechecked RR again. There is still NO link provided or reference to the PA poll even now. Not on politics page, recent poll pag, recent release page.
Perhaps you have a Premium package. It appears they provide it to them with a lag to the public.
BUT the PA poll results regardless were buried tonight. Released late, no publicity, not referenced by the MSM OR by Scott Rasmussen on Faux w/Hannity tonight. And it only showed up on Pollster at 1 AM...
Also very late on RCP & still not on most sites.
The funny thing is Scott R. was used tonight by Hannity to validate the McCain surging trends as reflected today by the Q state polls !!!
Scott R. sat there & never mentioned that his polls this same week contradicted several of the Q polls [MN especially]. Now that takes some real partisanship to suck that up - plus he already new the PA poll results & never mentioned or referenced them...
fair & balanced - lol
it is not that the results are important in PA, but it is the strange timing of the release & apparent 'quiet' suppression/lack of publicity that makes it appear to be intentional so as not to interfere with the McCain team narrative tonight perhaps...
JGabriel ,
Thanks for your post about the faux soldier email. I am sure we all saw that cut & pasted all over the blogs today. Was sure it was just a 'swiftboating' - even checked on Snopes earlier.
Hey, whether you bleed Red or Blue -
go read the new article "McCain's Foreign Policy Frustration" - Joe Klein, Time [on RCP] or @
http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1826064,00.html
He just may have an explanation for why Obama is for adamantly refusing to admit that the Surge worked. And that would eexplain why Obama may even be encouraging the MSM talking heads to keep pepperring him with the same Q's over & over ad nauseum.
It may be a brilliant strategy to needle McCain until he explodes...as well as continue to encourage the GOP to get off-message & play into his trap...
Four More Things! Four more things!
1) Find your version of Joe Biden to be your surrogate on the economy.
2) Keep reminding everyone and challenging McCain on his quote about the economy being pretty good under Bush.
3) Besides just using your own "fight the smears" website, direct people to check an impartial referee site like factcheck.org or snopes.com. Beyond this election, these provide us a valuable service in the internet age by countering misinformation. Hey, if widely used, they could be help catalyze the age of new politics you talk about.
4) Stay specific about change, what has been not working in Washington, what the plan is to fix it. Paint a vision with some details of what a better America and better world looks like and how we get there together.
dcm,
try the homepage, as I said in my last post.
www.rasmussenreports.com
You'll find a headline there, the first headline under "Breaking Poll" for the last ten hours, right beside a photo of a highway sign reading, "Pennsylvania Welcomes you." The headline reads:
"Pennsylvania: Obama Inches Further Ahead"
which seems like a very fair assessment of the poll.
There is always a lot of distortion and just-plain-idiocy in the way the media and the pollsters report poll results, but this isn't a time where anybody's done anything wrong.
Some people seem to have a fundamental misconception about how the media works. They think that the news is the product, and the viewers are the customers. This is exactly wrong. The viewers are the product, and the advertisers are the customers. The media is in the business of producing and selling eyeballs; the news is just their "means of production".
Once you understand this, a lot of things become clear. The media doesn't spend twice as many minutes covering Obama as McCain because they're in the tank for Obama, they do it because they believe having Obama onscreen will produce more eyeballs. They're probably right. And they don't decline to cover McCain's frequent gaffes because they're in the tank for him, but because they don't believe those stories will generate eyeballs. Again, they're probably right. Finally, "the race is close and dramatic, today's events may alter the outcome" is almost guaranteed to create more eyeballs than, "well the same candidate is still ahead, and today's events won't likely change that."
What the Obama team does is solid ground work. There is no point to burn money on adds before August. He already bought 5 million worth ad for the Olympics. THAT will start the GE campaign. By that time he will have a solid foreign policy plan backed by generals and foreign ministers. He will have an economy plan backed by economists. He will have the images and footages as he posing as a president, commander in chief, father and hard working white American. He will have his vulnerable moment and he will have his tough moment.
By then there will be lots of McCain "misspeach" I expect they will come in sight around the end of September. Together as a blow that should put McCain back with 5-10 points for at leas 30-40 days.
But not now, not yet.
Why is the writer's advice about what Obama should do focused on the SUPERFICIAL. Are voters really that stupid?
Here is my advice on what Obama should do:
1. Announce who some of his top-level Cabinet officers will be before the Democratic Convention. He should pick people like Sam Nunn, Chuck Hagel and, even, Dick Lugar for important foreign policy positions.
2. Bolster his foreign policy team by selecting a vice presidential nominee with national security credentials like Wesley Clark or Jim Webb.
3. Formulate a bold plan to fix some of the nation's economic problems, including the unbelievable economic inequality.
How about a huge tax cut for lower and middle-class people that will be financed by the rich, who have NEVER paid their fair share. Billionaire Warren Buffett admitted this when he said he pays a LOWER percentage of his earnings in taxes than his own secretary.
Obama could counteract the inevitable "class bashing" attacks with Perotlike charts showing how the rich's rates have gone way DOWN since 1980. The tax loopholes these greedy bleeps got back in the 1970s wasn't good enough for them.
4. Formulate a plan to solve the nation's energy crisis. I hate to say it, but McCain has a better plan -- because Obama has NONE.
I wish I knew enough about the safety of oil drilling technology to decide whether offshore oil drilling is environmentally safe. I'm inclined to say it isn't because of Exxon's deplorable behavior in the past 20 years, but I could be wrong.
In any case, Obama needs to have some sort of plan.
5. Stress in ads that the McCain of 2008 is different than the McCain of 2000.
Thank you,
ZWrite
"To determine whether Hillary Clinton is able and willing to be a high-profile surrogate for you and, if so, to deploy her on the trail immediately." I think this is correct, except she can't do it right now. Until the VP is picked (Clinton or otherwise), any massive campaigning with Clinton at this point will stoked her veep speculation, taking Obama off message (but also stealing the spotlight from McCain). After VP, this strategy makes sense. He ought to just go ahead and pick her for veep now and this would work. Yes, I know, there are red herring arguments that Bill Clinton will be a problem, but he will be a problem if he wants to be regardless of whether she is on the ticket. This is such a Democratic year, that Obama and Clinton together unify the party and pull in low-income white independents (via Clinton) and high-income independents (via Obama). In a Dem year, pick a Dem. unity ticket - and get her on the trail now to up those numbers among undecideds who still support Hillary.
For the spelling police above:
I'm one of the people who typed "soundbyte". I know what the word is and how it is supposed to be spelled, but my fingers don't always agree with me. Others probably have contrarian fingers, too.
If you are going to monitor spelling and grammar, you are going to be very busy. And boring.
lilnev:
You don't think McCain lacking knowledge of important Middle Eastern borders would generate "eyeballs"? Since he is the self-proclaimed foreign policy expert (a joke) and the "best" commander-in-chief (another joke, coming from a person who cheesed behind the President for years), this would make him look like a fool.
Charging half a million dollars on a credit card and foreclosing on a house is something VOTERS should know about. This dispels the whole "elitist" comments about the Obamas, which was absurd to begin with. How can you be expected to improve the economy if you can't even run your own finances? How can you expect to know what Americans are feeling in their wallets if you haven't shopped in a supermarket since the early '80s?
Forgetting the polls, every single Obama gaffe has been pyschoanalyzed. Its one thing to make a race seem "close" (which I find disgusting), but it is another to completely write off things that people SHOULD know about.
Aggregate the "solid" O states as a unit. WA, OR, CA, MN, IA, WI, IL, MI, PA, MD, DC, NY, NJ, DE, VT, MA, CT, RI, NH, ME (west to east) 259
Maybe NM is solid so you'd add that. (It's the last place that still runs in a 50/60s style "machine" politics mode. Even Chicago and Lake County, IN seem reformed.)
Then, use your state similarity score to find which of the remaining states are the "nearest neighbors" to this aggregated unit.
As has been said, "In God we trust, all others bring data."
If the "analysis"/"advice" is really "theory building activity", then one can use confirmatory factor analysis to TEST.
What I think sometimes is going on is exploratory factor analysis -- "fishing".
The shape of EV map is starting to look pretty close to the "no information hypothesis"; so there is a danger that this cite is drifting into "voodoo" and every other generic political blog.
The "super-tracker" is exhibit no. 1 for the case of "tea leaf" stats.
Oh, and update the FAQ -- who cares about "the Clinton model" except Lanny Davis hoping for an August coupe.
The closing line "This is analysis, not advice" made me laugh. Of course it's advice. Reminds of the radio ad tagline of a megachurch pastor in the DC area, who after giving a preachy soundbite, finishes with "Not a sermon, just a thought." Both are the equivalent of interrupting by saying "Not to interrupt, but..."
Let's not panic. Obama is leading in the polls and has been dealing with his biography and expanding his base. This is what you're supposed to do after you win a nomination. It's what McCain failed to do after he locked up his nomination in March. He's still trying to nail down his base and has yet to expand to the middle.
Obama will go negative in due course, but you do that early at you're own peril.
Obama needs to gear up and get his game on, certainly. Once he gets back to the home turf, he needs to campaign harder and stretch the margin further. Vote for Obama! Visit WHYOBAMA08.org!!
Why are oil prices high? Because of a war in the middle east and falling dollar due to a huge foreign debt.Thats all that needs to be said.
What is John McCains solution? To desperately drill more and more of the ocean bed in the HOPE of finding something. ie he is hoping to find something to pay for his hundred year war which he knows is driving up oil prices and bankrupting the economy.
I am sure most people would be able to follow this argument.
Your analysis is on the mark, but as soft as Obama's so-called supporters on the cable talk shows.
We are long past the time when the word LIAR should be used to characterize McCain when he "misstates" the facts when calling Obama both a liar and a traitor for saying the Sunni Awakening happened without the Surge. McCain was either lying or ignorant, and since he asserts his expertise on foreign affairs, McCain must be lying.
Which Presidential candidate was willing to abandon the hunt for Osama bin Laden, trading our primary national security interests and the memory of 3000 dead civilians for a war of choice that has destabilized the region by strengthening Israel's biggest enemy, Iraq? McCain.
What would have happened if President Kennedy had simply taken the advice of his generals and attacked Cuba in 1962? Nuclear weapons falling on Miami. Which decision would McCain make?
情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,
^^ nice blog!! thanks a lot! ^^
徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 外遇, 抓姦, 離婚, 外遇,離婚,
徵信, 外遇, 離婚, 徵信社, 徵信, 外遇, 抓姦, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 外遇, 徵信社, 徵信, 外遇, 抓姦, 徵信社, 征信, 征信, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 征信, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信, 外遇, 抓姦, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,
^^ nice blog!! ^@^
徵信, 徵信, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 感情挽回, 婚姻挽回, 挽回婚姻, 挽回感情, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信, 捉姦, 徵信公司, 通姦, 通姦罪, 抓姦, 抓猴, 捉猴, 捉姦, 監聽, 調查跟蹤, 反跟蹤, 外遇問題, 徵信, 捉姦, 女人徵信, 女子徵信, 外遇問題, 女子徵信, 徵信社, 外遇, 徵信公司, 徵信網, 外遇蒐證, 抓姦, 抓猴, 捉猴, 調查跟蹤, 反跟蹤, 感情挽回, 挽回感情, 婚姻挽回, 挽回婚姻, 外遇沖開, 抓姦, 女子徵信, 外遇蒐證, 外遇, 通姦, 通姦罪, 贍養費, 徵信, 徵信社, 抓姦, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信公司, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信公司, 徵信社, 徵信公司, 女人徵信, 外遇
徵信, 徵信網, 徵信社, 徵信網, 外遇, 徵信, 徵信社, 抓姦, 徵信, 女人徵信, 徵信社, 女人徵信社, 外遇, 抓姦, 徵信公司, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 女人徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 女子徵信社, 女子徵信社, 女子徵信社, 女子徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,
艾葳酒店經紀公司提供專業的酒店經紀, 酒店上班小姐,八大行業,酒店兼職,傳播妹,或者想要到打工兼差、打工,兼差,或者八大行業,酒店兼職,想去酒店上班, 日式酒店,制服酒店,ktv酒店,禮服店,整天穿得水水漂漂的,還是想去制服店當上班小姐,水水們如果想要擁有打工工作、晚上兼差工作、兼差打工、假日兼職、兼職工作、酒店兼差、兼差、打工兼差、日領工作、晚上兼差工作、酒店工作、酒店上班、酒店打工、兼職、兼差、兼差工作、酒店上班等,想了解酒店相關工作和特種行業內容,想兼職工作日領、假日兼職、兼差打工、或晚班兼職想擁有快速賺錢又有保障的工作嗎???又可以現領請找專業又有保障的艾葳酒店經紀公司!
艾葳酒店經紀是合法的公司工作環境高雅時尚，無業績壓力，無脫秀無喝酒壓力，高層次會員制客源，工作輕鬆，可日領、現領。
一般的酒店經紀只會在水水們第一次上班和領薪水時出現而已，對水水們的上班安全一點保障都沒有！艾葳酒店經紀公司的水水們上班時全程媽咪作陪，不需擔心！只提供最優質的酒店上班,酒店上班,酒店打工環境、上班條件給水水們。心動嗎!? 趕快來填寫你的酒店上班履歷表
水水們妳有缺現領、有兼職、缺錢卡奴的煩腦嗎?想到日本留學缺錢嗎?妳是傳播妹??想要擁有高時薪又輕鬆的夜間兼職工作,打工機會和,假日打工,假日兼職賺錢的機會嗎??想實現夢想卻又缺錢沒錢嗎!??
艾葳酒店台北酒店經紀招兵買馬!!徵專業的酒店打工,想要去酒店的水水,想要短期日領,酒店日領,禮服酒店,制服店,酒店經紀,ktv酒店,便服店,酒店工作,禮服店,酒店小姐,酒店經紀人,
等相關服務 幫您快速的實現您的夢想~!!
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店經紀,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店工作,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
菲
梵,
Post a Comment