Thursday, July 24, 2008

What Barack Obama Needs to Win

(As inspired by Mark Halperin).

- To speak to a national television audience at least once a week through a variety of venues.

- To speak to age 18-30 voters on a regular basis, through mechanicsms such as online chats that you host at your website.

- To develop a 30-second soundbyte answer to the question of high gas prices that everybody can recite by rote.

- To embody some of Bill Clinton, let your guard down, and speak to people's economic pain every day.

- To embody some of Hillary Clinton, develop more than one gear, and keep the McCain team off-balance.

- To speak to the importance of your role as a father, and to use it to highlight the moral imperative that we face in keeping the environment safe for our children.

- To pick some quick-and-dirty populist pieces of legislation that appeal to particular swing constituencies, such as the Airline Passenger's Bill of Rights.

- To determine whether Hillary Clinton is able and willing to be a high-profile surrogate for you and, if so, to deploy her on the trail immediately.

- To get some better advertising people, and run more ads less often rather than fewer ads more often.

- To quit being so deferential to John McCain.

- To let the press in all the way, except FOX NEWS.

- To avoid the temptation to pick a Vice President by focus group.

- To make some high-profile admission of an error in judgment that you made, and to get your self-effacing sense of humor back.

- To highlight an issue like your support for gays in the military that polls better than the Republicans realize, and attempt to lure them into re-fighting the culture wars.

- To continue going after uncharted ground like Montana, North Dakota and Indiana where the McCain campaign can't spend resources without losing face.

- To poll the hell out of the cellphone problem and determine if it gives you an advantage, and if so, in which states.

- To quit acting like you have a 10-point lead. You don't.

Note: This is analysis, not advice.

117 comments

Joe said...

amen to all of that, especially his need to appeal more the 18-30 crowd, which, lest he forget, constitutes a bigger part of his base than he seems to think. And constitutes almost ALL of his most enthusiastic supporters

mikeel said...

Yes, I agree!

Obama's biggest error so far is NOT GOING AFTER McCAIN.

Attack more. There's no pushback right now either.

Clintonian said...

Well said.

Obama can't win. McCain for 08 and Hillary for 12 and 16.

The new Rasmussen polls show Hillary having a greater lead again J-Mac than The O-Man

Jim S. said...

I hope he listens to one of the smartest guys I "know."

Good points all across.

Jack-be-nimble said...

Its panic time on the oba-media front. Obama's turn to the values of the European continent is complete.

Help me Halperin, you're my only hope....help me halperin you're my only hope.

From Barry Obama to Darth Nobama. Your master has trained you well.

Furthermore, after the rise of the "citizen of the world" in Germany, I fully expect the Barry may be the Anti-Christ.

Crowd chanting:

No-ba-ma.....no-ba-ma.....no-ba-ma....

Anonymous said...

Good advice mostly. Hope he heeds the need for offense.

Especially the advice to quit being so deferential to McCain & his team. It may be nice - but he must show toughness.

SMACK him back when he attacks with a smile on your face.

Negative ads by 527's starting to show up already here in FL on cable - have you seen the "2 faces of Barack" ads ??? shameless...

BTW - the WINNING position would be the ultimate populist stand to call out the BIG oil companies on their lack of 'patriotism' in this energy crisis.

of course they really are multi-nationals BUT Exxon et al are bleeding this country dry for short-term profit.

Tie them directly to Bush & Cheney [BIG OIL] and to McCain & Graham. Insist that Big Oil start drilling IMMEDIATELY on all their current leases OR fine them & take back the leases to give to the independents ready to drill now.

That is a winner for the vast majority of citizens.

Ryan said...

Great advice...I mean analysis, Nate. I would only object to the last item, and it gets a misunderstanding that's coloring many of your posts. You tend to have a game-to-game view of the election, when the Obama team appear to be managing for the long haul. So your analysis often sound like game thread gripes on Sons of Sam Horn, where posters tear Francona apart for sitting Manny Ramirez or something. In fact, Tito is making sure his troops will be fresh down the stretch and into the playoffs.

Though the campaign is making mistakes (and I agree the media/ad team is pretty poor), they're clearly taking the long view. They had a patient plan that they never strayed from in the primaries, and now in the general, it looks like what they're doing is getting some fundamental narrative issues out of the way. Neither the "move to the middle" nor the Barack World Tour is meant to drive short term polling bumps. The centrist gestures are meant to innoculate him from criticism later, while this trip will create stock footage and vague impressions of a commanding overseas presence to voters. Think of them as opening set up moves in chess; they're meant to move Obama to a stronger position later, not to be evaluated in a vacuum. This is especially true since the undecided voters tend to be low-information types not really paying attention right now. No matter how badly McCain flails and well Obama appears, nothing that the campaigns do right now will move numbers dramatically, absent a huge, culture-penetrating gaffe. What he needs to do right now is to set up for the fall and avoid big mistakes.

So it's short-sighted to try to evaluate Obama's moves by looking at short-term polling trends. I would, however, like to see Obama define McCain more effectively.

jeremy said...

The question should be how can McCain win, he can`t get out of the low forties. Polls don`t mean much until after the conventions and debates.

ajb said...

Jack,
It's funny that the "Antichrist" chose to borrow his words from Ronald Reagan:

Ronald Reagan, speaking in remarks in New York City Before the United Nations General Assembly Special Session Devoted to Disarmament
June 17th, 1982

Mr. Secretary-General, Mr. President, distinguished delegates, ladies and gentlemen:

"I speak today as both a citizen of the United States and of the world."

Barack Obama, speaking today in Berlin:
"I come to Berlin as so many of my countrymen have come before. Tonight, I speak to you not as a candidate for President, but as a citizen - a proud citizen of the United States, and a fellow citizen of the world."

(I posted this in the previous thread, but repost here in case others haven't seen this yet).

Anonymous said...

Nate,

The Projection Map and Election Statistics are updated, but the Simulation Results are still from yesterday.

Are you waiting for the R2K ND results to be added in, or did you just forget? Or something else?

.

DCM said...

Interesting to say the least that the recent shifts in the EV Distribution are now peaking McCain/Red @ 240+/- & around 265+/- indicating a possible long election night & closer EV campaign than anyone on either side cares to go through yet again.

I may put money down on the 268 EV parlay as a winnable longshot since more & more of those potential scenarios seem to be coming into play this summer.

Jack-be-nimble said...

First of all, I think updates every two days is quite sufficient. You guys are like drug addicts. Maybe some need to check into the 538 rehab center.

By the way ajb, many on the left thought RR was the anti-christ. Of course, now he is dead. That leaves the "Chosen One"

Matt said...

Of course Hillary is a better Candidate than Barack, heres why:

1. The economy has become the #1 issue. Hillary got real strong in the primaries when the economy became #1, but it was too late.

2. Barack was the anti Iraq candidate, unfortunately Iraq has improved significantly, and leaving isn't as high a priority as it was 6 months ago.

Obama won the Primary in Jan & Feb when it was all about Iraq. Hill won Mar, Apr & May when it was the economy. Hill would crush McCain because of the economy. She would crush anybody because of the Clinton name.

Neither McCain or Obama know how to talk about the economy. Barack gets an advantage because he's a democrat but he doesen't "feel they're pain" any more than McCain does.

McCain is a well known war hero against the unknown black guy named Hussein who's father is from Kenya. And everyone wonders why it's close?

The US is the most backward country of any industrialized nation. We're the only country still debating Global warming. Obama is a global candidate, McCain is a traditional American candidate. The US is fighting the urge to join the global community because it wants to remain in the 60's 70's and 80's. But the world has changed.

Younger Americans understand the change and see Obama as the leader in the World as it exists today. Older Americans grew up in a different time and are unsure of the new world and thus see McCain as a "Safer" choice. Sooner or later the US will join the rest of the world, it will be better off in the long run if it does it now.

Anonymous said...

Good advice/analysis, but Obama doesn't really *need* to do these things...

He simply has to contrast himself (inspirational, hopeful, and a prospect for real change) with McCain (the angry old man who wants to continue Bush's failed policies in Iraq and on the economy).

Naomi said...

Obama should hit McCain hard on Social Security. I can't believe McCain's proposed resurrection of Bush's failed SS gambit just flew right by the MSM and into the ether. If the Obama camp can gets the word to seniors about McCain and SS, Florida will be ripe for the pickings. And if Florida is lost, Mccain has no chance.

Anonymous said...

Naomi-

I agree on SS. and go back to tieing McCain to Bush & Cheney [aka BIG OIL] - that is a BIG winner for him.

Micheline said...

Another thing you can add:

Stop acting like this is the primary, we're now in the general.

Go on the attact, your opponent is a media darling.

Anonymous said...

Obama need to borrow the Clinton spin machine. His campaign is not as good in a media fight using sound bites and a consistent attack message.

If he fixes this problem, he will win