Monday, July 7, 2008

The Virtue of Vetting

Marc Ambinder's scoop is that Jim Webb withdrew his name from contention from the VP job once the Obama campaign let him know about the specifics of their apparently fairly rigorous vetting process. This is interesting in light of some of the earlier rumors that one reason Hillary Clinton is unlikely to be the choice is that Bill Clinton doesn't want to fully open his kimono on aspects like Clinton Library donations.

I recently had a friend who applied for a job -- unlike many jobs these days, the materials had to be submitted by snail mail. This was a job in the design industry meaning that a portfolio is required, making the process relatively cumbersome.

To set up a hurdle where you require some minimum level of seriousness such that people need to get up off their lazy asses and go to Kinko's ... you'd think this would not be too much to ask of someone applying for a very good job in a down economy. But a few days later, the company mentioned that the application deadline had been extended by two weeks.

I'll bet that they get a better hire as a result, though. If you skip directly to the interview process after some loose scan of resumes, the excitement of the moment can take over, and it almost becomes a matter of luck as to who catches you in the right mood on the right day.

Where I'm going with this is that the purpose of making it be known that you'll have an onerous vetting process is not necessarily to prevent another Thomas Eagleton; many of these candidates have been exceptionally well vetted, including Webb, who survived one of the nastiest and most expensive Senate campaigns of the last cycle. Rather, it's to prevent another John Edwards, whose lukewarmness toward the ticket was unhelpful to John Kerry's chances. You want to make a candidate jump through hoops for you now, because that's what they're going to need to do for you for four months on the campaign trail and then four years in the White House. Jim Webb ain't that kind of guy, apparently, which should surprise absolutely nobody who knows anything about him -- but better to discover that a moment too soon than a moment too late.

81 comments

Irene said...

Interesting analysis, Nate.

Cugel said...

I understand your point Nate, but Eagleton would never happen today. All McGovern's campaign did to vet Eagleton was call up a bunch of reporters -- who all knew about Eagleton's having been committed but were DAMNED if they were going to be the one to say anything about it.

As Hunter Thompson put it "the reporter who torpedoes a Senator's chance of becoming VP can forget about ever doing another interview."

That disaster is why nobody relies on reporters today.

Everything is investigated. I would imagine that a lot of potential candidates won't submit to such rigorous screening and Obama might find it difficult to get really good candidates.

But, the alternative is to have something blow up during the campaign. They are being ultra-careful, knowing that the media will never forgive them for the slightest slip-up, given how in the tank the nodding-heads of the MSM are for McCain.

sdf said...

It is an interesting analysis. Given how thorough the Obama campaign has been, I have a feeling that any speculation as to who is up and who is down could be entirely off the mark.

I hope so, at any rate, given that your list of supposed frontrunners in the post below leaves one ... uninspired. But I suppose that a VP pick does not necessarily need to be inspiring, just competent. And committed.

(My own darkhorse is Bob Graham -- just as white male moderate and just as foreign policy tough guy, but has some advantages some of the others don't -- both a gov and a sen, still popular in Florida, and was f*%!cking right on Iraq, and tried to tell anybody who would listen that he'd seen the intelligence, and knew BushCo. had nothing.)

-- Stu

sdf said...

P.S. I suppose with the holiday weekend not going to have been many state polls -- what's a poll junkie to do over the next day or so?

MC said...

Stu: I'm as close to a native Floridian as you're going to find these days and you know what? I think you're dead on. Bob Graham is The Man here in Florida. He's got the popularity, the smarts, and people loved him. Oh, and he's got the desire for national politics. My only concern is his health. I recall he had some heart issues, but then, that doesn't seem to be a disqualification these days.

John Nail said...

Nate, the more I red your blog and site the more I appreciate your thoughtful and fact driven approach to this election.

Edwards was a disaster 4 years ago simply running for himself for 2008.

I agree with another post that the names you hear are not the ones in the mix.

Bill Richardson is so seldom mentioned and so obvious as someone that Barack likes, has the international experience, is a Governor and oh by the way is hispanic and would bring NM, NV, CO closer to blue and help tremendously in CA, TX and in a number of major southern urban areas like Atlanta, Charlotte, N. VA and others...
He is still my obvious choice...though a feisty and honest Joe Biden is good as well...
Nate - do you have hispanic numbers for some of these cities to look at??

Anonymous said...

Bob Graham also has some weird quirky things that kept him off Gore's ticket - like he writes down everything (literally, EVERYTHING..color of his socks, time he ate breakfast etc etc) in daily diaries and has for his whole adult life - it's too OCD for a national race

Steve said...

Graham makes a good choice on paper, but I wonder about his energy level. He was never a particularly dynamic speaker or campaigner. Also, his penchant for diarizing every moment of his life comes off as pretty weird.

He *might* put Florida into play, but I don't see him giving Obama more than a 1-1.5 point bump, and if Obama's that close in FL, he's won Ohio and some other key states.

Don't get me wrong - I like Graham, and I've been a Florida Democrat for 32 years. (OK, registered for 27, damn that pesky 18-year-old voting requirement). But I think Obama will want to double down on his "change" message and go with someone younger. I'm kind of partial to Schweitzer myself.

Anonymous said...

I'm suprised we don't hear more about Wexler. He's a charismatic Senator from Florida, and he's tight enough with Obama that the campaign tabbed him to represent Obama's case for the Florida delegate compromise.

Anonymous said...

Wexler's not a Senator yet, though he's fairly widely expected to run against Mel Martinez in 2010.

Anonymous said...

I agree with both Stu and mc. Senator Graham is an excellent candidate. He is highly respected and enjoys much support by Floridians. He will certainly help Obama carry the state.

Lourdes C.

Bart said...

Interesting analysis indeed.

I also see this kind of vetting as not just vetting a VP candidate's background, or vetting their commitment level, but also vetting a VP candidate's drama level. The Obama camp is known for not wanting any drama in the campaign, and I would only expect that Obama would value a VP candidate and a VP that would add to his campaign by not bringing any drama to the campaign. Webb, Clark, and Clinton (via Bill) all bring too much drama to the campaign to be good choices.

synchronicity said...

To John Nail, Richardson actually has been mentioned quite a bit as a Veep possibility. Problem is that he also has a rep for being a bit overly frisky around women. Although he would be a great fit in other areas, I'm guessing that would torpedo his chances here.

FWIW, Richardson was my "obvious" choice for VP back in February. Now I'm as much at sea as anyone else, other than being almost positive that it won't be Hillary.

sdf said...

IMHO Graham's keeping a detailed diary should no more be a factor than whether or not Gore should have worn more earth tones. (I was not a supporter of his short-lived campaign in 2004, nor was I yet a Floridian, but it annoyed me how much play it seemed to get.)

But given, as Atrios likes to say, the hideously stupid state of our national political discourse, there's no doubt that the SCLM will give his journal far more play than, say, his eight years as governor or his eighteen as senator, or his recently having founded a center for public service at the University of Florida, or his principled stand against the Iraq war, or his sharp mind, or his continued popularity in Florida. Not when they have the shiny bauble of his journal on which to fixate their ADD sensibilities.

Rhode Island X said...

Nate, it seems you saw this coming with Webb? I know you have opinions on this...Though it's not exactly your style, as the process is fairly secretive and polls on this are rare and unreliable, who are your favorites for VP? (Both who you think Obama and McCain will pick, and who you think their best choices are.)

I don't have much information on this...But I'm thinking Richardson (my preference) or possibly Hagel (wildcard; the bipartisan/moderate appeal) for Obama, and Crist for McCain.

asmodeus said...

The Vp will have to be someone who helps translates Obama's words into deeds, right- how would schweitzer, graham or wexler or any other of these numpties do that? Bill Richardson will not be picked as VP - unless there is a great alienate-the-whole-white-working-class-masterplan afoot. Why risk it? Webb didn't even get around to endorsing Obama - he really wasn't in the running so very easy for him to pull out. Nunn and Biden look and sound old- double no-no. Clinton -all her vices she conveniently laid out in the primary season in case you were sleeping. Hagel - no chance - why risk alienating the 18 million Clinton supporters. Any Clinton backer is ruled out automatically - backed the wrong horse big time (Clark, Rendell, Bayh: auf wiedersehen). Edwards like Richardson - endorsed too late to matter. The same could be said for Gore (but I would bet an overheated earth that he has already ruled himself out privately -unless he thinks the planet 'needs' him). Bloomberg hasn't endorsed either which rules him out plus he is a numpty. This leaves Sebelius and McCaskill. McCaskill undermines Obama's skinny look. Hence, Sebelius: the least worst VP. (she might even be competent at her job)

sdf said...

steve -- your point about Graham's relative lack of charisma (and, yes, his age and energy level) is well taken, and probably the more likely reason why the Obama campaign would not choose him.

But then, who among the likely choices would be another "change" candidate?

Anonymous said...

Crist is a "down-low" brother (tho obviously white) - he won't be on McCain's ticket under any scenar