This is everything from today, including the Quinnipiac numbers that we discussed earlier:
This is generally a pretty good set of polling for Barack Obama. Abstract these numbers for a moment. If you had told a Democrat a year ago that, on the last day of July, their candidate would be ahead in Ohio and Florida, well ahead in Pennsylvania , way ahead in California, tied in Montana, within single digits in a couple of states that went really red in 2000 and 2004, they'd be pretty thrilled with that set of polling.
Generally speaking, the national polls in this cycle have been somewhat more favorable to Barack Obama than the state polling. Our projected popular vote margin, which is based on principally on state rather than national polling, has usually run a point or two behind the national polling averages at RCP or Pollster.com.
That pattern has somewhat reversed itself now. Our model likes these state polls for Obama, even as the national trackers have shown his lead shrinking to 2 points and 1, respectively.
The most interesting result today might be from Kentucky, where Rasmussen has Obama within 9 points once leaners are counted. Obama had trailed by 16 points in Rasmussen's June poll of Kentucky, and 25 points in May. There is no longer a big education/income gap in this election -- Obama has gained ground with lower-income, lower-education voters. That doesn't mean that he's going to win Kentucky. But something like West Virginia, where the candidates are already advertising since its markets overlap with Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia, deserves monitoring.
The other interesting result may is Montana, where Rasmussen now shows the race tied after having shown Obama with a 5-point lead four weeks ago. The underlying demographics of the state still probably point to a McCain victory by a few points, but so long as Obama is engaging the state and McCain is not, it has to continue to rate as a toss-up.
7.31.2008
Today's Polls (PM Edition), 7/31
@ 7:12 PM
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68 comments
Can you give a post with the projected state votes compared to the 2004 election. It's be interesting to see how much better (or worse) Obama is running according to polls than how Kerry actually performed in 2004.
Texas is surprisingly close. If Obama gets Latino turnout up, he might just have a chance there, or at least push a few Texas Dems over the top.
Even though he's down in MT from last month, I'm mildly encouraged by this poll result. One poll could be a fluke, two . . . not likely. Obama can win Montana. I just love the fact that he has so many different vaible routes to victory still open.
Seconded, vermontdem. That's a great idea.
West Virginia will be a state to watch. I think it's a sleeper battleground; it's going to be in play for sure if Obama picks Hillary Clinton (God forbid) or one of her former surrogates as his running mate.
Unfortunately, 538 isn't showing me the individual states, but it appears to me that every single one of these is down from the previous survey. Not so?
Sean, of course I just see a tiny part of Texas, but in my strongly Republican congressional district (TX-12), I see Obama signs and stickers on occasion. I don't recall ever seeing a McCain sign or bumper sticker. Texas is still a long shot and if Obama were to win, it would be a landslide, but as you note, he will not be a drag on down ballot races like Kerry and Gore were.
I'd like to see a poll out of Indiana soon. Either it's reddened up considerably or it's still a battleground state, as Nate's regression states. The latter scenario is deadly for McCain because he's got WAY too much turf to defend.
Matthew:
Actually, Obama's lead in CA has increased - as has his lead in a couple of national polls released earlier this week.
Also, if you research Pollster.com and look at just the BATTLEGROUND STATES, Obama is increasing his lead or gaining on McCain in SEVEN of them - and losing ground in only 3 (2 of which were RED to begin with).
matthew h, down in most, but not all. Difference in margin from previous poll by same pollster:
CA -2
FL -2
ID no prior poll
KY +7
MT -5
OH -4
PA -5
TX +1
There's a second poll out for Kentucky today, by Research 2000/Daily Kos:
McCain 56
Obama 35
link
Matthew H.,
Please also see Nate's earlier post today, where he discusses poll movements in these states across the past 4 months.
TYPO: ". . . based on principally on state. . . ." Remove the first "on".
When are you people going to learn? I guarantee for the rest of the election you'll see WAY more Obama merchandise. Get used to it. In 2004, we all saw WAY more Kerry merchandise than Bush. As Jack Black would say, see Inaguaration Day, January 2005. Democrats are almost always more vocal about their support than Republicans.
Yeah, the state polls lag the national polls. DUH. Check out the dates of the state polls then look at the dates of the tracking polls showing the race is 1-2 points away from being tied.
Everyone will concentrate on the Rasmussen KY poll only, I suppose !
Well... the election still hasn´t really started. We have to wait for the democratic convenion until it gets "really" interesting.
The whole time before is laying the groundwork. If Obama manages to get a foot in the door to Kentucky and Texas it´s great. He still keeps losing a little support in his base states though. That might be the last aftermath of the Fisa/death penalty/campaing finance-cluster.
The Montana poll shows a regression to "expected" terrain, we had seen the same in Oregon which had been visited and won by Obama during the primaries and then seen a little loss of support. But if all these states like MN, ND, AK only need the presence of Obama to turn blue, that can´t be bad.
A +2 state poll might not be comfortable, but if you see it in several states, combined with a strong foundation in political groundwork, you can be quite happy.
Hey Nate,
A couple weeks ago you published a post called "if the election were held tomorrow" I believe. It had the chances of Obama victory at around 85%, but I can't remember exactly. Could you periodically run that simulation and post the results? Or would that be a bad idea?
CA -2
FL -2
ID no prior poll
KY +7
MT -5
OH -4
PA -5
TX +1
In fact every state in this batch has tightened. Red states are getting less red, blue states lee blue
In the chart, the win % for a few states (like KY and LA) adds up to 101%
And just for fun, difference between Obama and McCain in today's polls compared to difference between Bush and Kerry in 2004 election:
CA Obama +5
FL Obama +7
ID Obama +22
KY Obama +11
MT Obama +20
OH Obama +4
PA Obama +4
TX Obama +15
I don't think there is much of a chance that Obama will come within 10 points in Kentucky in polls but come November he may because turnout (judging from my perch near Northern Kentucky) seems unenthused on the McCain side. McCain won't need to spend money there to win but the potential that Obama can close the gap to single digits means McCain will have to have a ground game in a lot more states than he would like...even Texas.
For those interested, I put up a map of the media markets in W.Va. along with a discussion of how much each one overlaps with neighboring states.
For ads originating from W.Va., Ohio and KY are the states with the most bleed-over.
Ads aiming at PA (e.g., Pittsburgh area), DC/MD, and parts of Va. will also land in W.Va.
There is no love of McCain here in W.Va., so it is ripe for Obama's taking.
If McCain picks an ineffective VP/surrogate (e.g., Romney) and Obama an effective one, add in a few Obama visits, some more strong media buys and Obama could have just enough to tip the state.
Is there a West Virginia poll on the horizon?
Okay, what the hell is going on with Appalachia? To say there's some discrepancy between those R2000 and Rasmussen polls of Kentucky would be an understatement.
Is the difference >20%, or is it <10%? That spread is just bizarre.
I too would like to see another "If the election WAS held tomorrow" post, although I'm not sure how much work it is to put together...
I agree with the premise of AnotherMike's first comment--that the most interesting polls today are those that confirm suspected trends for which we previously didn't have much evidence. Florida seems more competitive than 538 has tended to expect, Montana indeed seems very competitive this year, and Sen. Obama has experienced a very positive long-term trend in Appalachia since securing the nomination.
You really believe Obama has a chance at WV? I'm doubtful. There was a lot of racial overtones in the Primary, and I doubt even if the polling suggests its tight that it really is.
People haven't been paying much attention to this, but check out Arizona, of all states:
http://www.pollster.com/polls/az/08-az-pres-ge-mvo.php
The drop in McCain's numbers is precipitous.
McCain is advertising a lot now because he has to get rid of the money that needs to be spent pre-public finance. Will he be able to compete with Obama in the following months when he's restricted to public money?
AnotherMike said...
Sean, of course I just see a tiny part of Texas, but in my strongly Republican congressional district (TX-12), I see Obama signs and stickers on occasion. I don't recall ever seeing a McCain sign or bumper sticker. Texas is still a long shot and if Obama were to win, it would be a landslide, but as you note, he will not be a drag on down ballot races like Kerry and Gore were. [July 31, 2008 6:28 PM]
I have the same thing in my part of Texas (TX-26), also very strongly Republican, but I still see quite a it of Obama support in the form of bumper stickers, yard signs, etc., substantially more than I saw for Kerry 2004 or Gore 2000 ... at least a 3-to-1 margin.
Does this mean Obama can win Texas? Only as a part of a massive landslide ... but what's going to happen is that a lot of down-ballot Dems who otherwise would have barely lost will instead barely win. That changes not only the US Congressional delegation, but also the makeup of the Texas legislature (and, down the road, redistricting).
More importantly, it will change a lot of opinions at the national level about Texas being firmly and irrevocably "red," which means a lot more races will be seriously contested with support from the DNC. Such efforts have a viral effect, and combined with our changing demographics, Texas will eventually change. In 20 years, it might be the most important swing state ever. =)
James said...
When are you people going to learn? I guarantee for the rest of the election you'll see WAY more Obama merchandise. Get used to it. In 2004, we all saw WAY more Kerry merchandise than Bush. As Jack Black would say, see Inaguaration Day, January 2005. Democrats are almost always more vocal about their support than Republicans. [July 31, 2008 6:39 PM]
Hey, while we're looking at anecdotal evidence, here's some for you: Where I live, bumpers and rear windows were absolutely plastered with "W" stickers in 00 and 04. You were virtually guaranteed to see at least 2-3 at every stop light. I saw a few Kerry stickers in 04, but it was trivial in comparison.
Now? Not only are the W stickers gone (I see one, maybe, once a week), but I have yet to see a McCain sticker. Meanwhile, I see Obama stickers a lot ... far more than I ever saw Kerry or Gore stickers, and beginning to approach how often I saw W stickers.
Is there a confirmation bias? Of course -- this is just ad hoc observation, not a systematic sampling. But it's just as valid as your argument that Democrats are simply more "vocal." =)
Oh and that pollster Arizona thing is because of that one Zogby Interactive poll. McCain is still doing fine there.
Can someone post a link for Nate's explanation of the Return on Investment index? Maybe, Nate should have a permanent link to that either here or in FAQ.
I basically would like to find out if he is considering the cost of the media buys, population, electoral votes, swing analysis,etc
ANOTHER TYPO: "The other interesting result may is Montana. . . ."
What's that "may" doing there?
Abhinav: Here's the link to Nate's "Return on Investment" article.
By the way, I still think McCain is going to pick Rob Portman from Ohio. That helps him in WV and KY and Ind. And, of course, Ohio It also will help when McCain shifts from the attack approach he's on now to the softer narrative approach we know he will be pivoting to in Sept.
Not very objective Nate. You should spend less time on Kos. The only thing that matters this far out is the National Polls. As far as the trackers go its Obama+1.5.
Now that obama has played the race card, it is over for him.
Obama is in freefall.
Wishful thinking, Jack. I'll believe it when I see it.
I was planning to stop making regular posts regarding the Rasmussen "leaners" issue, since it should start having a smaller effect on the 538 model and on people's perception of the race as time marches on. But if I did it now, I would look like I was only bringing it up because Obama usually does better in the Ras state polls with leaners. Not this time. The without leaners number:
Kentucky: M49 - O49: M +10
Texas: M50 - O41: M +9
Montana: M45 - O44: M +1
As Josh Putnam has discussed, there's some evidence that this has been a shift since Obama's trip began.
Well, the other poll in Kentucky was a little more depressing. Its not like it matters. There was no way he was winning KY even if he was down only 9. I'm curious about WV, but only for curiousity sake. Its nowhere near a tipping point state.
Can I change the subject for a second?
The other study yesterday said that McCain was outspending Obama. This is surprising because Obama is expected to have far more money overall. Presumably Obama wants to save up for blanket advertising later, while McCain is going for a strike first approach.
I'm wondering if part of this has to do with fundraising. If Obama spent part of his reserves and built up a 7 point lead instead of leaving it around 3, some of his donors might start to feel overconfident and not give. If the race started to swing towards McCain later, Obama would be relatively helpless to respond.
If he keeps money in reserve while McCain spends, McCain will rise slightly in the polls and the race will look tighter than it probably really is. Donors will see a tie race and they'll be motivated to give more. He'll also be able to deploy the reserves more strategically. This will help him change the subject if a bad news story comes up later. This is sort of similar to the "backpocket superdelegate" theory that Obama wasn't announcing superdelegates when they endorsed him but keeping them in the backpocket for strategic timing. Any theories?
Any other reasoning why McCain would appear to be spending more than Obama overall despite the fact that both sides agree Obama will have far more money overall?
Jeffrey,
McCain has to spend all of his primary money before the convention, whereas Obama has until Election Day to spend it. After the convention McCain is limited to 87 million.
The only way McCain can win this election is by winning knife-edge victories in a hell of a lot of states, including: Michigan, Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Indiana, Virginia, Montana, Nevada, Missouri, New Hampshire.
Because McCain isn't going to win any of those states by more than 5%. It would be incredible if he managed it, which is why Obama really shouldn't lose this election.
I'm fresh home from a county Dems Executive Committee in central (not Appalachian) Kentucky. We also want to see Obama give us four to six hours in the next three months.
Yeah, some of our Democrats are the toughest for him to get. They envision the world two ways. One is about respect and honor--and they've got a legitimate beef that he hasn't even come by to ask for their votes once. The other way is about getting their share--and his absence lets them worry about that, too.
Showing up won't get him our electoral votes in 2008, but it will help answer questions being asked in Kentucky-like precincts up and down the mountains.
Plus, we have down-ticket candidates who need the energized turnout of every Obama backer in the state--and showing up will get that done.
Double plus, we need to think about 2012 and 2016, and a candidate whose building a new politics needs to build for those years, too.
jack be nimble
It's all well and good to look at one poll to back up your theory but you still need to check out the overall trends...
http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/08-us-pres-ge-mvo.php
so you don't embarrass yourself or sleep too soundly.
MonsieurKovacs:
"If the election WERE held tomorrow" is correct: the "were" is the subjunctive expressing condition contrary to fact. A dying grammatical usage, but a fine and proper one.
2 polls that I am very intriuged to see, Indiana and West Virginia. Those two polls will be revealing alot.
Is the tightening the result of the impact of the press (print and spoken) continually insisting that the race is close?
Good scrap goin' on twixt Quinny and Rasmoosey. I thunk Rasmoosey wins today on its combined 'lead' total. Quinny needs to increase its margins for Obam-bam. Go Quinny!
Andy:
Neither is Obama. This election will come down to the wire one way or another.
To win Obama needs to take/hold Colorado, Virgina, Michigan, Florida, Ohio, New Mexico, etc.. all of which are predicted to be within a few percentage points at this point.
Games,
Don't you think Democrats are generally more enthusiastic than Republicans? I meant no harm by this comment, simply that Democrats usually like to have their voices heard. Take the primaries as an example. In recent years, the Democratic primaries SLAUGHTER the Republicans in turnout, yet the general election is generally close. This to me suggests that there is a greater number of Republicans that skip out on the primaries yet vote in the general.
I've been saying for weeks that he has a chance in Texas... with increased voter turnout and registration from latinos, along with sending Hillary Clinton down a few times and doing some big time advertising, I think it has a chance to tighten even more.
I've sited that article a couple weeks ago (on RCP) that shows TX trending blue. Even if he can pull within five there this year and make McCain play defense there (a very expensive state), he can lay the groundwork for 2012 to make it a swing state.
To several people discussing Texas:
No Obama doesn't have a serious chance in Texas and no Texas is not turning into a swing state in the future. There are few dramatic changes like this to swing state / solid state status. If in fact there is a huge Democrat landslide that makes even Texas a swing state, the Republicans will be so up s*** creek that they'll have to fall back, regroup, and the next election they'll position themselves to be competitive again. (i.e. if that means espousing some traditionally liberal policies they'll do it, to be in a better position to win the election.)
anyway, no, i refuse to believe that Texas will be 2012's Ohio.
SouthernOntarioan:
It probably will come down to the wire, but as it stands Obama has an apparent lock on more states than McCain. If they're in a tug-of-war and neither has pulled the other over the line yet, Obama's about 60 EV's closer than McCain in what is securely his. Thus there's a lot of defense McCain has no choice but to do, and there's several targeted strategies for offense for Obama. As such, I think Andy's comment that McCain's job is looking like a tough slog to a razor thin victory at best is fairly apt.
Nate,
The Rasmussen Texas and Arizona polls both used Rasmussen's "likely voter" screen, which like Gallup's includes virtually requires having voted in a past election to be counted. Gallup's use of the likely voter screen clearly undercounted voters who may be new to the process but who are still very likely going to vote this particular cycle. This effect is likely much larger in Texas due to the large number of newly engaged Hispanic voters who did not vote last cycle but who came out in huge numbers in the Democratic primary and are now overwhelmingly supporting Obama.
How do you correct for that and get a real sense of what this election in Texas is likely to look like?
I’m obsessed. I’m spending hours every day — more time than I care to acknowledge — studying this site, Intrade, IEM, Real Clear Politics, Electoral-Vote.com.
I have made a spread sheet so I can assemble in one window and compare the odds and the spreads from the various sources. This site has the best, most insightful analysis of the numbers.
Why am I doing this? Why do I care so much? I’ve always voted Democratic; and I want to see him win: but I wouldn’t expect Obama, even with a Dem majority in the House and Senate, to solve this country’s problems, or save the planet.
Obama is of course a politician. To me that means, profoundly different from me, from you, from anyone I would ever expect to know or care about, or exchange feelings of empathy with. Anyone who would want to run for high political office in this country, in this era in history — and even more, anyone who has a chance to win — must be, in some non-trivial aspects of his make-up, nuts.
I haven’t made any campaign contributions to a candidate this year. I have a few times in my life been a volunteer in a local election, but never worked for a statewide or a national candidate.
Once in a while, studying the odds on Intrade, I think, these odds are imbalanced, the volume must be thin. Maybe I could place some bets, make money by arbitrage. But that would take time and effort.
I care so much, I spend so much time, I’m so obsessed: because I’m partisan.
A friend of mine, who coaches high school sports, explained to me once — I’m sure the idea wasn’t original with her — to be a successful athlete, you must hate to loose: but to be a great athlete, you must absolutely be unable to stand to see the other guy win.
I want the guy I’m rooting for to win. But I’m obsessed because I want the other side to loose.
The great thing for Obama is that it looks like two Bush states from 2004, Iowa and New Mexico, are almost certainly in the bag for him. Therefore, if he holds all the Kerry states plus those two he's on 264 EVs already, just 6 away from the target. The only problem for him is to make sure he holds on to Michigan and New Hampshire, which are both looking fairly close. If he can do that, he just needs those 6 EVs from a huge range of states that have already been mentioned.
That's the statement of a real optimist (I don't disagree with it, BTW) or perhaps just wishful thinking, as in that old saying: "Gee, if I had some ham I could have ham & eggs. If I had some eggs."
Well, it's based on real polling figures which show 17 out of the 19 Kerry states being fairly safe for Obama in addition to NM and IA.
Further erosion in the Ras tracker.
As I sugggested in the Brittany Spears tread, which I repeat below in case you missed it, Obama has had a bad week and it is getting worse.
The news cyle has been wholly negative since he got back from Europe and now with Obama's laste gaffe on race it will continue to turn against him.
Obama faces a savage set of recaps on the weekend news shows. he may be forced into picking Evan Bayh as early as today to quell the bad press. I had suspected he would wait until Tuesday, but he probalby cannot afford to do so.
What follows is a repeat of my summary of the week as posted in the Brittany thread . . .
Obama Overplays His Hand
In a stunning miscalculation Barrack Obama overplayed his hand over the past few days, suggesting that both Bush and McCain were directly using race against him. This was a drumbeat that he started in late June saying that his opponents would use his blackness against him in the race. When Obama went so far as to accuse McCain and Bush of this in MO the other day, he went too far, and the McCain campaign along with the candidate leapt on it, took umbrage and basically hoisted Obama on his own petard.
The Obama campaign was left scrambling and backpedaling yesterday as they could not come up with a single instance where either the Bush or McCain camps could be shown to have themselves played the “race card”. Instead they were left whining about McCain using “old politics” and going “negative”.
Well, Duh!
As I said yesterday, McCain is a smart military man and he knows that the first objective is to neutralize and marginalize your enemy. Hence the Brittany Spears/Paris Hilton ad. The Obama campaign and its surrogates (David Gergen) tried to leap up at first and suggest that the juxtaposition of the blond starlets with their politician was meant to make some smarmy sexual allusion about how nubile white women are somehow at peril in the presence of black men. The same sort of smear that Harold Ford tried to imply unsuccessfully in his losing race for the TN Senate in 2004. That that ad is still topic number one and continues to paint Obama as an air-headed celebrity full of fluff and very photogenic but wrong on substance (bad on energy and taxes) is a problem for him. The ad is succeeding and Obama is whining.
Obama has not regained his “land legs” since he came back from the Rainbow Tour. The post mortem on the trip was that it did not do him any short term good. This week when he was supposed to have returned to focus on domestic issues. Instead it left him branded as presumptuous and arrogant, with a photo op with Nancy Pelosi and his advising Americans to fill up their tires as a way to solve the energy crisis. Let’s not bother with the vast untapped reserves of oil we have here in the US.
Obama is next confronting the Olympics. The two weeks commencing a week from today will be a period of great nationalism and American pride here at home. His challenge will be twofold: One, compete with the mega show in China for publicity (publicity is the oxygen on which his campaign breathes) and Two, distance himself from the suspicion that he wants to be not just President of the United States, but of the World. As Americans get into the mode of rooting for the home team and wishing ill on the Germans and the French among others, their subtle consciousness will be altered and it will not help Obama.
This is why Obama must make his Vice Presidential pick soon, no later than Tuesday. He will need to grab the news cycle soon. Indeed with the week having gone so badly for him he does not want the weekend cycle to be dominated by his missteps of the past week and his leaky, arrogant candidacy.
I have suggested before, to the consternation of many here, that Obama takes a great risk in injecting race into the campaign. As we learned with the New Yorker Cover story, crying foul over such things does him little good, especially where the point is either satire (as with the New Yorker) or non-existent (as with these charges against the McCain campaign). Voters are not fearful of Obama because he is Black, what they fear is that he and his administration will filter everything through a prism of race and that every policy debate will somehow get dragged into a racial scuffle that this country can ill afford at this time.
As far as these latest polls go, they virtually all show movement towards McCain as compared with comparable survey (with the exception of KY). Things are moving McCain’s way and towards the Republicans right now. This is because of the success in the War and their having taken the high ground on Drilling. Now that Obama has injected race into the campaign, it will be curious to see if he gets a sympathy bounce or if his complaining shines a further spotlight on his deficiencies, leading to further erosion of his standing.
This is why he will pick Evan Bayh any minute now and change the subject.
I'm not sure things are as bad as you say for Obama. The latest polls gave him leads in states he needs to win, although not large ones.
However, it doesn't surprise me that some elements of the American media are being more hostile to him given their dislike of anything to do with Europe.
PKent
When Obama does not pick his VP this week or next week, will you come on this site and admit to all and sundry that you are an imbecile?
Every week we have the same GOP spin from you predicting the death of Obama based on whatever the froth issue of the day is. You have claimed that his comment that kids should learn another language would sink him, you were wrong. You have claimed that offshore drilling will sink him, you were wrong. You have claimed that his overseas trip would cause a collapse, you were wrong. Today, you claim that his response to a ludicrous McCain ad will destroy Obama. You have also made various baseless claims about movement of the polls, all of which have proven to be wrong.
Throughout the entire period of your laughable punditry, Obama has continued to lead McCain by somewhere between 2 and 6 points.
Have you contemplated the possibility that outside the world of self masturbatory conservative blog-dom, ordinary voters might have different priorities to you? Just a thought.
Please continue to post here, if only to serve as a reminder to any independent voters who visit the site of what is so wrong about the Republican party and the people who advocate lies and spin on its behalf.
P Smith:
I have not said that any of those things would "destroy" Obama only damage him in a collective sense. I have been fairly accurate in my assessment of the polls and correctly predicted McCain's rise in the polls during the flip flopper debacle and see this as having been a bad week in the polls for him because he has allowed McCain to control the debate and to a degree make Obama look out of touch and foolish.
Obama is a smart man and his handlers are very shrewd. I fully expect him to do something dramatic to try and change the vector he is on. He cannot allow himself to limp into the weekend, victim to John McCain’s attacks. Bayh may be the answer. If he had had the big week on the economy that he had hoped for, he could have waited for Tuesday. Just enough time to introduce Bayh and then push him off the stage and let the Olympics dominate the cycle while he fines tunes the Rally at Denver.
Despite a trip of supposed historic significance that saw him rise to a 9 point lead in the Gallup tracker Obama has shrunk back down into a virtual tie with a man whom some were comparing in early June to being like a blob of cottage cheese stuck in lime Jell-O.
I say McCain has done a lot with his candidacy and has benefited from the issues, particularly drilling and the war, while continuing to focus on working class voters and their concerns on a very grass roots level.
Obama's messianic vision is off putting to all but the few true believers out there who, having been cowered into silence by Ronald Reagan and disappointed by Bill Clinton, see him as vindication of their left wing ideology. Unfortunately for them, the people still reject liberalism and will ultimately reject Obama as well, if he can be exposed for what he is.
McCain this week has told the people not to believe what they see -- its all glitz and glamour -- Obama will not be allowed to self-define himself ab initio. He has a history and a record and it must be dealt with. That it is a record of left wing affinities and fringe associations with kook anti-American Reverends, unrepentant terrorist bombers, Marxist Professors and PLO officials cannot be dismissed or discounted.
The stakes are too high and too many of us will make sure of it!
My point Pete is that you adopt a very blinkered short term approach to your comments. This comment about Bayh being picked this week is another example of it. While I have myself said that Bayh is the perfect candidate for Obama, he is not going to move an announcement forward because the campaign has gone negative particularly in circumstances where there is no evidence that McCain has benefitted from it.
My prediction is that he will announce his VP after the Olympics in the week before the DNC. Let's see who is right shall we?
Your analysis of the recent spat is also hopelessly spun through rose tinted glasses. That is why you form bogus conclusions about Obama's comments on learning Spanish or the impact of the Britney ad.
By next week, the Britney issue and the race card spat will be forgotten. The net effect will be that Democrats and Republicans will be more energised and Independents will be more turned off by the continual tit for tat. That is why I see it as a mistake for McCain to tarnish his own straight shooting image by engaging in Rovian smear campaigns and lies when he needs to win Independents in order to overturn the Democrats 8% edge in registration.
McCain cannot accuse Obama of choosing basketball over visiting injured troops and wanting to lose the war and then complain when the MSM call him out for engaging in gutter politics. He also can't complain when his poll ratings go South because he has morphed into just another Republican. We'll see who is right in the long term that's for sure but I would much rather be in Obama's shoes right now.
P smith
The comments may have been forgotten, but they will have made their mark. Just like the "your kids need to learn Spanish" comment. It contributes to the fabric of the campaign and the cloak a candidate must wear.
McCain needs to do all he can to drive up Obama's negatives. Obama has gotten a free pass and before the Messianic fervor sweeps the country he must be shown to have feet of clay. Once the damage has been done to Obama by the late August conventions McCain will have plenty of time to accentuate the positive.
McCain is doing a good right now. The independents will be glad for it when they see Obama revealed for who is and dodge a bullet in not voting for him.
Obama will move very quickly on the VEEP. He is in trouble right now and unless he does something he is in danger of reaching a tipping point.
Wrong on the WAR, wrong on ENERGY, soon to be wrong on the ECONOMY.
What's a brother to do?
Pete Kent ... You are very sure of yourself. Sure enough to put some money where your mouth is? I will take a bet against your Evan Bayh fantasy and will take Obama in the general.
How much? $50? $1000 $1000? Name your number.
Hey PeteKent,
On August 1 you wrote: "This is why Obama must make his Vice Presidential pick soon, no later than Tuesday."
That would be Tuesday, August 5.
Today is Friday, August 8. Did I miss the announcement on the running mate?
Or are you going to admit you were wrong?
I will bet anything you will not write the words "I was wrong."
Nor will you question that since you were wrong about that, you just may be wrong about a whole lot of other things, too.
Here is your chance to write those exact words, and prove that I'm the one who is wrong!
PeteKent,
On August 1 you wrote:
"The Obama campaign and its surrogates (David Gergen) tried to leap up at first and suggest that the juxtaposition of the blond starlets with their politician was meant to make some smarmy sexual allusion about how nubile white women are somehow at peril in the presence of black men. The same sort of smear that Harold Ford tried to imply unsuccessfully in his losing race for the TN Senate in 2004."
Thank you for destroying any credibility you might have.
Anyone who watched the ad saw the blonde who claimed to meet Harold Ford at a Playboy party, close with the tag line "Harold, call me."
No one "tried to imply" anything. The smear was point blank.
There could be no other possible interpretation to that ad.
As the late Sen. Sam Ervin used to say, I understand the English language. It is my mother tongue."
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