For the first time since shortly after clinching the Democratic nomination, we now have Barack Obama as less than a 60 percent favorite to win the election. Our simulations presently project Obama to win the election 58.4 percent of the time, with McCain winning the remaining 41.6 percent.
The main culprit for the decline are the new numbers out of Ohio, where Rasmussen shows John McCain jumping into a 10-point lead. We have already discussed this particular poll at length. Are the changes caused by differences in measuring party identification? No, not really. Rasmussen assumes a slightly redder electorate than other pollsters, but Obama's numbers had declined among Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike. Could there be problems related to the sampling of young voters in this survey, who went surprisingly strongly for McCain? That is a more viable explanation. But it still would not account for the entirety of the decline.
There is also new polling out from American Research Group, which has Florida and New Hampshire moving in John McCain's direction. In Florida, Obama now trails by 2 after having led by 5 points, and in New Hampshire, he leads by 2 after having led by 12.
The sky is not falling for Obama in Colorado, where Rasmussen has him retaining a 3-point lead (the lead is 7 points before leaners are factored in). This is consistent with the polling in Colorado throughout the election; Obama's leads have generally been in the small single digits, but he has almost always held one.
When we throw everything into the 538 blender, what we find is Ohio rating strictly as a toss-up. The fact that Ohio appears to be polling a point or two behind the national numbers for Obama rather than a point or two ahead has significant implications across the map. Viable 'Plan B' states like Colorado, Virginia, Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada and perhaps Montana become even more important, as they, rather than Ohio, may now represent the path of least resistance toward an Obama electoral victory.
7.22.2008
Today's Polls, 7/22
@ 7:52 PM
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Young voters feel the pinch at the gas pump, perhaps more than other voters due to the fact that most of them are new to the work force and have lower paying jobs.
The GOP is hammering steadily on their advantage gas price issue and that may be causing the erosion in Obama support.
to any pollsters out there - please poll OH! Let's try to make sense out of all the crazy OH numbers
Thanks for the honest assessment. It appears to me this thing is becoming a dead-heat. I appreciate your objectivity in admitting this reality. Keep up the good work. You may be for Obama, but you don't seem to be drinking the Obama Kool-aid. Kudos for a first rate website.
My usual comment, until 538 addresses it:
Yes, the move in the polls back toward McCain is real and it's significant. But it's smaller than Nate's post and the 538 methodology makes it appear.
Following the suggestion by "anonymous humanist" in a previous thread, the new Rasmussen Ohio poll should be treated as two new polls (at half strength each):
--A new poll in the Rasmussen Ohio series has been released which shows McCain +6, compared to McCain +1 last month.
--A brand new poll, in a new Ohio series "Rasmussen with leaners," shows McCain +10 in Ohio. There is no previous polling of this type to compare it to.
Since, instead, the 538 model is treating the +10 poll as being in the old series, it's getting the trend wrong, and thus overstating the (very real) shift back toward McCain.
I can't believe McCain is going to win this election... what the hell is wrong with our country
Bottom line: if Obama wins Ohio he's won the presidency. He has to do whatever it takes to win it.
Sorry about that Nate, the sky is falling for Obama in CO. The three point lead for Obama is belied by the favorability ratings of the two candidates (61% McCain and 52% for Obama)
Many would say that the favorability is a truer predictor that actual poll results. It is similar to the question of finding out how someone thinks by asking what the people in your neighborhood think about an issue. This might also be an indication of a partial Bradley effect.
Begich is up 9 points in the Alaska Senate race.
Inching closer to 60...
Nate -- please add a simulator to your site so that visitors can click a button and watch a run of your simulation!
Like the one at
http://www.270towin.com/simulation/
It's addictive!
This is the most objective site I have found on the web. I check it daily. RealCLear Politics being a close second. Thanks for keeping the hype out of the analysis. Great work as always. I live in flyover country, people are open to both sides, but are getting very turned off by the Obama media surrogates.
Btw, what "GOP advantage on gas prices?"
I'm looking around at recent national polls, and so far I've only found one that directly asked that question, the recent CBS/NYT poll, conducted July 7-14. In that, 30% thought Obama's policies would reduce gas prices, and 50% thought they wouldn't. Not a great number, but for McCain the number was 25% Yes, 56% No, i.e. very slightly worse.
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/politics/20080716_POLL.pdf
I can't find any Rasmussen poll on gas prices directly, but on energy they show voters preferring Obama's policies 44-42.
http://rasmussenreports.com/scoreboards/by_the_numbers2/by_the_numbers
So if anything, the issue looks like a slight advantage to Obama, although most voters seem (rightly) skeptical that either candidate would have much luck lowering gas prices.
jack-be-nimble:
I have a favorable attitude toward McCain as well. Just as I had a favorable attitude toward my saintly grandmother when she was suffering from dementia in a nursing home.
Doesn't mean I think either of them are presidential material.
About 26% of the population thinks that McCain is too old to be President. On the order of 58% have a favorable opinion of him.
For some reason, people seem to think this has no overlap.
I suspect there will be quite a few people, mostly women, who like McCain, don't like Obama, and will vote for Obama. One reason is the aforementioned age problem, the other is that Obama's positions on women's issues much more closely match the vast majority of women.
Now I'm going to get the usual political crap. But I'm just explaining the polls here. Just the facts please.
Sorry SG,
Thats not how favorability ratings work. Partisans from both sides don't have favorable opinions of the opposing candidate. What remains are the mushy middle that can have a favorable of both sides.
More significantly are the rising negatives (unfavorables) for Obama.
SG:
I have a favorable attitude towards Barack Obama. Just like I have a favorable attitude towards that nigger my daddy uses to help get in his cotton crop every year.
Just because I think the world of both of 'em and that they are hard workers doesn't mean they are Presidential material.
The GOP wants to drill NOW.
So do the American people, if you believe ANY poll out there.
If you don't believe that gives the GOP an advantage, that is your opinion.
The racist comment above likely comes from a lib.
This is depressing. Obama isn't going to win Ohio, and GOPs will win again. Well, at least we'll have Hillary in 2012 to put our hopes in.
Jesus, it's not even August yet and already people are writing off this state or that state or whatever. Get over it... polls go up and down and then the conventions come in and flip everything over in one direction or the other as the race sort of "resets" again. Obama hasn't lost anything yet, not by a longshot.
And even if Obama loses OH, as Nate points out he has plenty of other options to win the presidency. Namely, Kerry states + CO, NM, and IA should do the trick just fine.
Everyone calm down and take a deep breath. We have a ways to go here.
And someone delete that racist assholes comment.
About the Ohio poll from Rasmussen: Do we know, like in the Newsweek poll, whether or not the drilling questions were asked before or after the Presidential question? If they were, that could really have influenced the results, especially the young voters maybe?
"Sixty-four percent (64%) support offshore oil drilling while 22% are opposed. These figures are close to the national average. Fifty-four percent (54%) say reducing the price of gas and oil is more important than protecting the environment. Just 28% disagree and say protecting the environment is more important."
That would definitely sway voters.
Finally, Nate, the advertising dollars being spent right now are heavily in McCain's favor, isn't that likely a reason for his surge, especially in swing states? I almost wonder if advertising dollars spent in previous elections at this point had a negative correlation to victory.
Nate, you need a moderator and quickly, the trolls from both sides are making the comments section nearly unreadable.
LMAO, YOU DEMOCRATS ARE LOSERS!!! IT'S ONLY JULY AND MOST OF YOU ARE ALREADY SURRENDERING, NO WONDER BUSH GOT A 2-TERM PRESIDENCY.
anon@7:14,
Yeah, the polls say that people favor offshore drilling. The polls also show that Obama, who's against offshore drilling, is thought more likely to be able to reduce gas prices. Maybe voters are smarter than we sometimes think they are, and have realized that offshore drilling isn't in fact likely to reduce gas prices in any meaningful way.
Given the choice between environmental risk and even a small chance of lower gas prices, they'll go with lower gas prices... but they also realize that offshore drilling is a pretty small part of the gas price picture. Given that, why back the party that has been in power for most of the last eight years, and failed spectacularly on gas prices during that time?
The Republicans are pushing for legislation to DRILL MORE, DRILL NOW. The Democrats are pushing for windfall profit taxes as well as a crackdown on speculation.
When polls show 65-75% of Americans want us to drill for oil, that is in favor of the party for drilling, the Republicans.
If you disagree, you can, but your logic will be just awful to back it up!
$50 says there's a few percentage points worth of independents abandoning Obama over FISA.
If I'm wrong, I'll pay that $50 out of money I was going to donate to Obama, but won't now that he's voted for telco immunity. That was non-negotiable for me. (No, I won't be donating it to McCain either, who's just as bad if not worse on the rule-of-law front.)
I think eventually we are going to see Obama get cutthroat and air McCain attack ads. BHO could just be collecting ammunition with all of the flip-flopping and gaffes. As long as Obama leads he can maintain the high road, but when he starts losing nationally the knives will come out.
The polls have not tightened dramatically around the country. We have to ask ourselves why this happened. Was it the flip flops on gun control, fisa, Iraq, etc. Is it a question of Obama being black, or a liberal.
I don't know, but he should be ahead by 10 points. It never fails to amaze me in this country how the Democratic Party can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
This is going to be a tough campaign, and I'm glad the news media is on our side, but Obama did not do himself any good in Iraq, and him stating that the surge is not working and he would vote against it again if he voted all over again was really stupid.
Obama needs to stay away from the military. He can't win, and when he talks about it he sounds arrogant and cocky. Clinton use to say I honor peoples service and then change subjects.
I think this trip did him no good. I fear what will happen in the Rasmussen poll tomorrow.
I find it amusing how a shift in polls has become a sign that this site is now the "most real" site online. But, just days ago while lurking here I read some of the same posters proclaim polls to be crap. My guess about polling is that Obama will win this. Not because of polling data, but the fundamentals. McCain's central problem is that he has the R after his name.
I can't put my finger on what's happening here. McCain is running just an awful campaign. I think perhaps people are perhaps seeing Obama as presumptuous.
The flip flopper narrative may be working. The other thing is that the media clearly dislikes Obama, and is not covering McCain's constant gaffes. They've been ripping him for a couple of weeks.
But I have a sense that Obama is a bit too cocky.
People just don't know what's good for them. To think that John McCain would be good for the country is pure insanity. Once again the people of Ohio will vote against themselves.
Question for Nate:
How do you account for the "trend-adjusted" part of your numbers in light of Rasmussen's recent switch to including two sets of numbers: w/ leaners and w/o leaners. For example, today's CO numbers show Obama up by 7 w/o leaners and up by 3 w/ leaners. The Ras. poll from last month had Obama up 2, but that "looked" like a poll w/o leaners, hence Obama appears to have gone up 5 points (from 2 point lead to 7 point lead) and not just up 1 point (2 to 3). This seems important in relation to the "trend-adjusted" part of your analysis.
Dash - WTF? People don't know what is good for them? This is liberal elitism at its worst. Maybe people are not comfortable with a liberal that has yet to complete his first term in the US Senate?
ajb: Thanks for the link to the Rasmussen scoreboards. Very interesting. First of all, with one exception, neither candidate is receiving more than 50% trust on any issue. This shows, that either the electorate is pretty sceptical on politics in general, or a good part of them have not yet made up their mind (probably it is a mix of both).
Secondly, McCain is only leading on national security (53-39), Iraq (49-27) and immigration (38-35). On all other issues (14 in total), Obama is leading, especially on education (49-34), environment (47-33) and healthcare (48-38). This makes it understandable why McCain advisers thought they are f..ed after the Maliki interview - the core competence is just melting away.
Issues aside, however, McCain scores better on leadership (46-36), on "values closest to your own" (44-39), and on "too old" (24) vs. "too inexperienced" (45). Furthermore, 51% think that under Obama government spending will go up, and 43% think that taxes will go up. This indicates that, so far, a good part of the electorate is still basing their preference on vague perceptions.
Having looked at these figures, I tend to aggree with those commenters who state that it is far too early now to interpret anything into polls, especially into polling shifts by a few percent. A lot will depend on the debates. Having said that, it seems Obama has still some work to do to win not only voter's minds, but also their hearts.
It is SUMMER. Likely voters are at the beach, lake, mountain house, real world. They are not waiting by their phones to answer a poll. This will all straighten back out when the kids go back to school. McCain will continue to babble and show himself to be a doddering coot even when people are paying attention again. Settle down, people.
I'm looking forward to the next poll, and the next... seeing OH fall into "uncertain" territory isn't a surprise at all.
But the rest of the country isn't fixed either--and almost none of that is good news for the GOP. There are very few places that are "Kerry states" that are really in contention. And the list of unreliably red states seems to grow.
I'm looking forward to seeing what happens in Alaska now that Palin's in the middle of her own massive (and probably politically fatal) scandal. Not a major GOP politician left in the state who McCain will want to be seen with... and I'm betting Obama will go and campaign there... and put a big question mark into the redness of Alaska.
More long hot months of suffering for the GOP... and the wobble in the current poll numbers doesn't even unsettle me at all.
Anonymous said...
I find it amusing how a shift in polls has become a sign that this site is now the "most real" site online.
By that same token, some of the same people who, a few weeks ago, were scoffing at Obama supporters for thinking the election was over are now convinced that McCain has already won. Even though Obama's still, like, actually ahead, you know?
There's still plenty of time for anything to happen, but the fundamentals are not in favor of anyone with an R after their name. McCain's doing better than the rest of his party, but he'll need to do even better if he wants to win.
I tried to post earlier again on offshore drilling and gas prices, but Blogger was down. Basically, offshore drilling is a means to an end (lower gas prices). A majority may favor giving the means a try, but I doubt very many will base their vote in November on offshore drilling. Gas prices, however, may well be the key ballot issue of the election, and so the fact that voters trust Obama more on gas prices matters a lot.
I keep saying that McCain needs to move beyond "the surge is working" to "this war is worth fighting." The same's true here, I think. He needs to move beyond "offshore drilling is worth a try" to "it's the only way to lower gas prices, and it'll work," if he wants to win the election on the issue, rather than just narrow the gap on the issues. And in this case, the fact that McCain himself has said that offshore drilling won't really lower gas prices will get in the way of making the case he needs to make.
It could just be that the more people see of Obama, the less they like him, unless they were already inclined to like him. Or at least - the meme that "Where Obama campaigns, Obama wins them over" is just plain wrong.
We've seen this before. In the primaries Obama never won a state he wasn't supposed to. Every state that was considered close (and even some that weren't!) saw voters choose Hillary, who became effectively the "Anti-Obama". The only exception to this was Indiana, and that was largely on Obama's strength in the area adjacent to Chicago. NH, TX, OH, PA, WV, KY didn't respond at all to (in some cases, overwhelming) advertising by the Obama camp. It seems to me that there is a sizable chunk of the electorate that will simply never be receptive to Obama's message.
Democrats had just better hope that that piece of the electoral pie isn't too big to overcome. You picked a risky candidate - and now there are indications that you might have to sweat about it.
Adam said,
It seems to me that there is a sizable chunk of the electorate that will simply never be receptive to Obama's message.
Well, of course a lot of them are called Republicans :).
Overall, today's Rasmussen shows 57% have favorable opinions of McCain... and 55% have favorable opinions of Obama. That 2-point lead is within the range of the daily fluctuations we've seen on that score. Actually, I'm pretty surprised at how popular BOTH of them are!
It is certainly too early to panic. At the same time, considering how inept the McCain campaign has been, the generic Democrat ballot lead still strong and the fact that Obama's supposedly hitting every note on his world tour it's pretty disconcerting to see Obama going backwards at this point.
I gotta stop coming to this site. It's giving me heartburn.
Obama is coming across like a rock star on his mid-east tour and seemingly dictating the the Bush agenda, Al Maliki had thrown him a juicy nugget, the Bush Administration are talking to Iran just like Obama told them to ("liberal" media please take note) McCain is gaffing-up all over the place.
If this is a real shift to McCain I can't explain it - so for that reason only I'm skeptical.
Only thing I can think of is McCain's voice coach who seems to have finally got him out of nursery-nurse, sing-song mode into just plain old man mode
""Like the one at
http://www.270towin.com/simulation/""
That simulation is nice for entertainment purposes, but it isn;t particularly useful because it calculates each state independently of another.
On more than one occasion it has had Obama winning Montana and both Dakotas, but losing Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, or winning South Carolina and Mississippi but losing Michigan and Ohio, or winning West Virginia but losing Virginia.
Essentially twilight zone scenarios.
I know it has been said, but this site needs to rethink its message board policy. How about a threaded board that requires registration? Throw in a few moderators (or better yet, a trusted user system) and you may get a comment section worthy of the quality presented on the rest of this site.
Seriously Nate, you are getting great media attention and are currently a star of the blogosphere. Stop letting a sloppy comment section sully your site.
I just don't see McCain winning Ohio. I'm in a very Republican area of the state and the feeling is that Obama is going to win even from Republicans. My family are all Republicans current or former and they plan on voting Obama. The local economy is just horrible here and part of the reason is from policies that Bush and McCain favor.
It's clear much of this shift is occurring because the Republican pollster Rasmussen is push polling against Obama. You can see Rasmussen did a major shift in it's polling when Obama looked like he was running away from McCain. In tracking polls Obama always had a larger lead in the Rasmussen poll than in the Gallup poll and then all of a sudden that relationship flip flopped. I would be very suspect of Rasmussen polls from here on out toward the election. I think Obama has dropped a little but not nearly as much as Rasmussen polls. The PPP poll in Ohio shows the difference in polls taken at the same time. The most important thing is that after Obama's foreign trip and McCain still making about a gaffe a day Obama will take the lead and not look back.
Enthusiasm gap will make it up for Obama on election day.
He'll pull out a squeaker even if he's down by 10. People just can't get excited about McCain. They'd rather stay home on election day and watch TV.
I think the latest Rasmussen batch are really wonky and not to be trusted. Did anyone notice the CO-Sen polling coupled with this stuff? Udall is only ahead by 3. Hasn't he been polling around 9 points ahead for the last 2 months in every poll.
What's up with this?
I still maintain Obama's decline is directly related to his capitulation on the various progressive issues - his run to the center.
If he would have just stood strong for his beliefs I don't think this would be happening. But he didn't. He caved & like all democrats who have lost recently, he is running to the center because, conventional wisdom says he needs the center. I believe the CW is wrong. The people in this center don't vote on issues, they vote on personality/likability/gut feelings/character/whatever. That's why the voted for Bush the second time around. Bush, with all his flaws, came across as strong because he wouldn't change his mind. Now we've got Obama, who had a good, stong message during the primaries running to the center, waffling on his positions. how is this seen by the center? It is not seen as being stong. It's being viewed as a political move from the guy who ran on 'a different kind of politics".
It does not surprise me at all that this is tightening up the way it is & the more he talks/acts to the center the closer it is going to be. He's still a better person to run the country than McSame, but he's hurting himself.
""Enthusiasm gap will make it up for Obama on election day.""
Actually I suspect the opposite. Voters who decide at the last minute will trend towards McCain, perhaps by a significant margin.
Obama is a love him or hate him candidate and will remain so...few people are indifferent to him.
Not many people who are still on the fence on November 4 are going to think "oh well...Obama I guess".
Can we please stop pretending that Minnesota, Washington, and New Jersey are swing states, and that Virginia, North Carolina, Montana, and Indiana aren't?
Now with OH looking like its lost .. do i hear "Vice President Hillary Clinton" ?????????
I had thought that Obama could win with picking up New Mexico, Colorado and Iowa while holding onto Michigan and Pennsyslvania.
It now looks; however, that if he loses Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania could go also to McCain.
Obama needs Hillary to seal the deal.
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sigh...one 500 person poll from rasmussen, the ONLY polling firm to have McCain ahead the last 2 months in Ohio, following a 1038 person poll released yesterday that has Obama up 8 in Ohio, and Nate moves Ohio to toss-up. Look, Nate, I know you have gotten a lot of pressure (a LOT) from the cons to be stingy when it comes to Obama's #s, but this is getting silly. When a series of state polls is favorable to Obama, it's the Rasmussen national tracker that brings him down...when the national trackers don't move, it is an outlier in Ohio. Of course, this is all an exercise, but in bending over backwards to prove to the GOPPERS on this site you are not biased, you have made a ludicrous overreaction to a 500 person poll. If a poll comes out tomorrow that shows Obama up 9 in Florida will Obama's win percentage go up to 70%...again, you need more than ONE poll from ONE outfit to change so dramatically. It just seems silly and knee jerk otherwise...
1. Seems like we can't put our finger on it, but Rasmussen's Ohio polls lately seem to have a McCain bias. At least their June poll was the extreme outlier.
2. Summer doldrums -- Obama's younger voters are less likely to be at home than McCain's older voters.
3. Even if Ohio's not becoming this favorable to McCain in Ohio yet, things will tighten there, and this will crucially determine the complexion of the whole race. Because of this, Nate's Scenario Analysis needs to break down more clearly between the decisive effect of Ohio (pretty obvious) and the scenarios for surprises outside of that effect (more interesting--in which Colorado and New Hampshire are looking most important right now).
Lord are the Hillary trolls still at it? You want to talk about someone with high negatives and you're saying she's the answer? That's insane troll logic.
Recalling the dem primaries, I have liitle confidence in Obama's chances in the older appalachian states. Yet I do believe Obama will in. The map is changing.
The GOP is hammering Obama with negative ads. The dems have to step it up.
You can't win the Presidency without getting dirty.
I may be the only Obama supporter that believes Hillary would be the best VP. Now, there are certainly down sides to that, the biggest being that Obama will no longer be the story. You can't put Hill and Bill anywhere and hope the news outlets won't rush to cover the gossip. And the Rep.'s will bitch and moan over all the bad stuff about Bill's presidency and the media will soak it up.
If Hillary could wipe Bill and his entire presidency from our memories, she would be VP. Alas, she can't and thus Obama has to live with the fact that half the party isn't over joyed with him and it's going to be a dog fight down the stretch. I think a Hillary VP selection would give Obama an automatic 8 point bump in the polls. The problem is when the hue wore off, things would be complicated for Obama's campaign. Not to mention governing. Eight years with Billary? thats a lot for anyone to worry about.
The early news coverage tonight coming out of Obama's trip was pretty scathing against him. Lou Dobbs excoriated him for dismissing the advice of General Petreus and others commented that Obama had to be careful not to look too presumptuous, as he did when he referred to what he had to do as Commander in Chief, seemingly skipping over the election in its entirety.
McCain has sounded savage in describing Obama as his polar opposite: a candidate who would rather win a campaign than win the war. Tough stuff and it remains to be seen how far that goes.
Obama has gotten rough coverage on his refusal to acknowledge the success of the surge (both on Nightline and with Katie Kouric).
Finally the other theme that seems to have emerged this week is that the media is overwhelmingly in Obama's corner. That media adulation of Obama has become a story is very dangerous territory for him. I think the only institution in America that polls worse than Congress is the Press.
He would be wise to pick better friends.
All of this combines to explain the current movement in the polls.
The European end of the trip may cause further problems for Obama. The kinds of voters he needs to win over really don't care too much how well received he is in London, Paris and Berlin. If he comes across looking like the long lost fifth Beatle it will only compound his problems.
Obama needs to come home and rejoin the debate. The playing field has shifted on Iraq and Maliki may have created the conditions whereby he can stick to his pullout plans and satisfy both the left and the middle. The question will boil down to judgment -- did he simply back into being right? Will McCain be able to convince the moderate voters that Obama's failure to endorse the Surge then and now shows him to be an unfit leader?
And then there is the issue of energy. A poster above believes that the high price of gas may be disproportionately impacting young people and this could explain to a degree McCain’s lead in the Ras OH poll.
It would be fascinating to get the two of them on the same stage and duke it out.
McCain should press for a town hall in August. Obama may come back from his trip feeling invincible and enthused and may pick up the challenge.
LET'S GET READY TO RUMBLE!
It boggles the mind how a candidate's popularity abroad can make you want to vote for him less. They like him, so I don't? Well... having a President the world hated, wound up with us having a President we all hate (according to every poll in the world). Uhm... maybe they're onto something.
Does anyone else see the debates as a major turning point for this campaign? There is a slight charisma gap.
Uh ... 'bout that Couric interview ... McCain's explanation of the benefits of the surge contained at least one 100% pure provably untrue statement - that it deserved credit for the Sunni awakening (which happened before the word "surge" was even being bandied about in public). CBS edited that part out (it's in the transcript online). But a debate has no cutting-room floor, and if McCain makes such an egregious factual blunder during a debate, he won't get off that easy.
Just saying. Don't lay it all on the debates.
I wish Obama would make more of a play for Texas... there was a story a couple weeks back on RCP tallking about how Texas is trending back towards the left. In the last couple of TX polls, Obama has been within 9 or 10 points, and as close as 3 in one. With as much money as Obama will have for the general election, it couldn't hurt to make a push in the Lone Star State. How cool would it be if he could force McWar to spend some bucks in a state that has been redder than any other?
JYRINX,
You are full of crap!!!! The only reason the Sunni Awakening occurred is due to United States Marines establishing outposts in Sunni areas of Anbar Province and fighting with the Sunni people against Al Quadi, did I say Al Quadi, yes I did. The only reason any awakening occurred in Iraq is due to brave Marines and Soldiers establishing outposts in Iraq and then began to walk among the people and asking them if they want life or death. They chose life and decided to work with America to bring peace to their country.
All of this was brought about with a plan established by a 4 star General. When the plan was presented to the President he decided to implement this plan, when all around him Democrats were yelling the war is lost, the war is lost!
Do you remember that JYLINX, I sure do and the American people do as well. BUSH deserves credit for getting us into this war, but MCCAIN when the skies were dark and the war looked lost stood up among the defeatist and said, we will not loose this war, we will win. We will implement the surge and we will win this war,and he was right.
The other candidate, the surge will make things worse, it will not work, the war is lost, withdraw the troops, all is lost. That candidates name was Barack Hussein Obama, and he was wrong on the surge, and still will not admit he was wrong on the surge, he will not admit that this tactic reduced American and Iraqi casulties.
He is now on the wrong side of history, the war in Iraq has been won and we can all thank John McCain!!
As a former Marine Corps Officer, I have no respect for OBAMA, none. Never in my entire life have I heard the sound of retreat so many times from the mouth of one person running for the President of The United States of America. Never, have I heard the sound of retreat come from the mouth of so many people in one party, the Democratic Party.
The true measure of any man is when times get tough. the true character will emerge. When things got tough in Iraq-well everybody now knows the answer.
"When we throw everything into the 538 blender, what we find is Ohio rating strictly as a toss-up. The fact that Ohio appears to be polling a point or two behind the national numbers for Obama rather than a point or two ahead has significant implications across the map. Viable 'Plan B' states like Colorado, Virginia, Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada and perhaps Montana become even more important, as they, rather than Ohio, may now represent the path of least resistance toward an Obama electoral victory."
I don't believe I'm reading this. One piece of crap poll comes out from Ohio and you think suddenly Obama needs to go to "Plan B." Are you kidding me?
The difference between the RV polls and the likely voter polls is almost always the difference between at least a +6% or higher Obama lead and maybe a +1 or +3 lead, and in the case of Ohio, a -10% McCain lead.
I think Dr. Alan Abramowitz is exactly right on this one:
Alan Abramowitz:
"This is not a credible result. It is not only way out of line with other recent polls in Ohio, it is way out of line with other recent polls in neighboring states and national polls. Over the past five weeks, the Gallup tracking poll has shown an average Obama lead of around 8 points (range 5-9) in the swing states as a group. That is based on tens of thousands of interviews. If Obama is ahead in the swing states as a group by 8, or even 5, there is no way he can be trailing in Ohio by 10. Moreover, even if Obama is tied nationally with McCain as Rasmussen currently shows--and this is almost certainly an underestimate of Obama's support--he could not possibly be trailing in Ohio by 10.
I'd go out on a limb and say this poll is as much of an outlier as the Bloomberg/NYT poll that found Obama at +15%. That was absurd, and so is this one.
I tried to duplicate this using your spread sheet model, and the numbers just make no sense at all. Even with a +20% McCain lead among Independents, there's just no way McCain is leading by +10 given a 43%D, 35%R, 21%I Voter ID sample. It's just flat impossibly unlikely.
Cugel,
Could it be possible that a lot of Democrats are going to vote for McCain, and this is what caused the large McCain lead.
The Colorado Poll showed a huge swing to Obama before leaner's, what do you make of this poll? Obama did much better in the west than in Mid-America during the primaries. I think we should all gird ourselves that Obama will not pick up a large percentage of the white vote. It is not going to happen.
Ok, some of the posts on here are bordering on stupidity. In the last seven or so polls, Obama has held a steady lead in the state, yet because this ONE poll shows him behind he is "sinking" in Ohio? Its JULY for goodness sake, and some people are already trying to write some half-baked political obituary.
With all due respect to some of the posters on here who feel the need to prop Clinton up, Obama should be able to "seal the deal" on his own. Hillary Clinton really is more toxic than she may appear to be. By choosing Clinton, you'll guarantee a mass exodus of unaffiliated voters and some core Democrats who DO NOT like her. People are voting for the top guy, not the VP. It may make a slight difference, but appeasing the PUMA/off-and-on Democrats is not something I don't think Obama should be doing. Also please spare me the whole Clinton/Mountain "Mama" appeal crap. She wasn't winning in a lot of those places because people liked her THAT much. If John Edwards was still in the race in places like Ohio and West Virginia, Hillary wouldn't have even gotten above 40 percent.
The truth is that Obama has managed to lock down Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin, and no one including Tim Pawlenty can help McCain here. Pawlenty squeaked by in his own re-election with 47 percent of the vote, so how exactly is he going to help McCain there? Someone who is a "losing" candidate is going to be polling well in Indiana, Virginia, Montana, Alaska, North Dakota, and Colorado.
Michigan looks like a safer bet than a few months ago, but I think Obama should win there. Ohio will be close, but I highly doubt McCain is up 10 points including leaners.
Obama is up 48-43 in Montana according to Rasmussen, but most people wrote it off as an "outlier". I wonder why the same is being applied to this Ohio poll, especially since Obama has been ahead here for weeks?
I agree. Some of these comments are getting dumb. Somebody mentioned how Lou Dobbs was ripping on Obama and then 2 paragraphs later, commented on the media love for Obama is causing a backlash. Which is it? the fact that somebody is using Lou Dobbs as an example is the funniest thing of all.
Hey, Dash Riprock, how's Ellie May Clampett doing? If you are in the tiny minority who think the mainstream media is anti-Obama, try watching MSNBC and CNN and reading the New York Times.
And I think rapturous crowds in Berlin chanting "Heil Barack" will indeed hurt Barack in the polls, not help him.
If you haven't seen McCain interviewed by Couric, check it out. They cut a lot of it for broadcast but the entirety is online. He was wild-eyed emotional, at least by the standards of Presidential candidates. Couric even mentioned it.
I honestly think McCain is mentally unstable and should be replaced by the GOP. If he gets frustrated to visible anger because his opponent is having a good day....
Scott, Frank, whoever is with us on this question (amazingly few!) ---
Wearing my hermeneutic hat now, my impression from this post is that Nate doesn't think Scott is right. that is: Nate thinks previous Rasmussen state polls included leaners.
Since he has a way of knowing (presumably, Emailing Scott Rasmussen) I rather wonder if this may not be the case. But it would be good of him to say so!
Scott - I mean the one from Sarah Lawrence now - did you finally compare the averages for McCain+Obama before and after, with and without leaners?
One possibility is that Rasmussen did change their methodology, in that they now push leaners much harder. The appropriate response to such a methodological shift is even more difficult to determine.
I have read many of these posts, and I find a surprising number of these posts un-freaking believable. Let me get this straight, one bad poll for Obama in Ohio, and a bunch of the pro-Obama supporters, incredibly including Nate, are ready to throw the state overboard? Go ahead, I encourage you, but boy is that naive. The Dem's stand a very good chance in Ohio if they would just hold their water and push forward. Oh well, good for us.
@ChestyPuller, you are correct, but this is going to be a tough, close election. Any other conclusion is just flat wrong.
@John, I am just as dewildered as you are. Your logic is spot-on.
@Cugel. Yup, I agree.
Die-Hard 'Pub.
"ack Black said...
Cugel,
Could it be possible that a lot of Democrats are going to vote for McCain, and this is what caused the large McCain lead?
I'll let Prof. Abramowitz* answer that one:
"Alan Abramowitz: http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_rasmussen_ohio.php
It's an outlier. Period. Certainly McCain could be slightly ahead in Ohio or slightly behind, but Ohio can't be far out of line with Pennsylvania and Michigan, or for that matter with the nation as a whole. Outliers happen even to the best of pollsters."
Try and reproduce those numbers on Nate's Election Projection spreadsheet, starting out with 43%-35% Democratic Party ID advantage. You have to assume that McCain is suddenly winning Independents by 23%. Impossible. But, even if he is, it still doesn't add up to 10%. I honestly don't know what the hell they did to get that result.
It looks like a perfect storm of likely voter screen, cell-phone problem, bad sample, mid-July people being out, and just bad luck to get something that far off.
Hey, I'm an Obama supporter, but I didn't believe the Bloomberg/NYT poll that had him up by +15 or the LAT Poll that had +12 or something. That was just B.S. And so is this one.
And we have evidence of that since we have the PPP Poll come in with a large Obama lead.
McCain might actually be leading in Ohio right now, but certainly NOT by 10%!
What other polls have you seen that?
And try to believe Obama is doing better in Florida and Alaska and Montana than in Ohio?
" The Colorado Poll showed a huge swing to Obama before leaner's, what do you make of this poll? Obama did much better in the west than in Mid-America during the primaries. I think we should all gird ourselves that Obama will not pick up a large percentage of the white vote. It is not going to happen."
Nice to see you have such a firm vision of the future you can infallibly tell what's going to happen! How about telling me which stocks are going to go up the most in the next 3 months so I can make a killing?
It's JULY! Nobody is focused on the Election.
Likely voter screens are necessary and much better than RV CLOSE to the election, but not in July. I've posted this before! Obama loses about 10% of his voters because they're screened out by the likely voter screen in Rasmussen because they tell pollsters they are "uncertain" they will vote.
Well, if they say that in October, then it's a real problem. But, not now.
Obama has NOT solidified the base as McCain has, that's why this is close. But, there just isn't that much of a swing that 26% of Democrats aren't going to vote for him when Kerry got 89%.
You right-wing trolls can cackle all you want, but there is just no way Obama doesn't get at least 83% of Democrats in November and that will be easily enough to win.
That would still be -5% less than Kerry got. McCain is at 85%-88% of Republicans, which might be a ceiling of sorts for him, because he's just not as well liked as Bush (who got an astonishing 94%).
As for Colorado, I live in Denver and I can tell you I would be TOTALLY SHOCKED if McCain wins this state. Obama constantly gets favorable local press, and Democrats are just on a roll here, having won the Governors' mansion, picked up 2 house and one Senate seat so far and about to add another Senate seat, plus taken control of both houses of the State legislature. That's not going to change in 2008.
This is not to mention the immense publicity the convention is already getting and is going to continue to get.
Conservatives here are writing articles and going on local TV warning the rest of the country that the progressive Colorado Model is "coming to a state near you." This is a state where Republicans still have a +4% voter ID edge, but Independents are moving more and more Democratic. Marilyn Musgrave is in trouble in CO-04 and that's a rural farming district that's a lot like neighboring Kansas.
I suppose McCain could possibly win in the end, it probably IS close, but there's just almost NO visible support for him anywhere around here I can see. Now, Denver is a Democratic stronghold, but there used to be PLENTY of Bush/Cheney '04 signs around. McCain seems to just be invisible so far. I imagine Colorado Springs is showing him some love. They probably think he'll bring on the end-times they keep talking about!
*Dr. Alan Abramowitz is the Alben W. Barkley Professor of Political Science at Emory University, and the author of Voice of the People: Elections and Voting Behavior in the United States (2004, McGraw-Hill).
anon@11:17,
Reading what Nate says in "Today's Polls," I don't think he's actually going overboard on thinking that Obama's lost the state -- all he says is that IA/CO/NM/VA matter more in light of what this poll does to the projections for OH (of course, Nate can and probably will speak for himself!).
I agree with your more general point, though -- as a strong Obama supporter it gets tiring to see people say he's DOOOOOOOOMED because of one bad poll in OH.
I suspect a good number of those people are concern trolls/PUMAs/McCain supporters looking to get points, but if there are sincere Obama supporters out there who think he can't win OH based on this poll (or who take any one poll that seriously), they need to chill out. Seriously.
On the bright side, I'm assuming that, if the next Rasmussen poll has Obama ahead by 2 in Ohio, all those same people will be excited about how he's suddenly surged ahead by 12 points, and is now completely unstoppable. Right, guys?
Folks online were asked who they expect McCain will pick for his VP Slot. From the states I saw, Utah and Michigan were the top 2 that say Romney will be his VP.
Other key states with high %'s: Nevada and New Hampshire.
Link: http://news.aol.com/political-machine/2008/07/22/hot-seat-who-will-mccain-pick/
Romney will be BENEFICIAL to McCain. They may not like each other, but Romney helps McCain where he is the weakest: the Economy.
chestypuller: but MCCAIN when the skies were dark and the war looked lost stood up among the defeatist and said, we will not loose this war, we will win. We will implement the surge and we will win this war,and he was right.
With the greatest respect for those who serve in our military...
I still see no definition of what McCain means by "win."
Also, McCain seems to think we can send more troops to Afghanistan--where the greater threat lies--without removing troops from Iraq. I don't see how that can possibly happen, at least not without extending everyone's tours again. If he does so, he risks breaking our wonderful armed forces. So despite McCain's heroic service, I don't see how his plan is realistic, or how he's telling us the truth about the situation.
I don't mean to babble on, but one more point. In the last two days, we've had two polls coming out of Ohio, one with Obama +8, the other with McCain -10. The latter poll comes from a company which Nate finds has been more accurate in the past.
So far we can all agree.
But a lot of people in the comments seem to think that, given these three facts, the logical solution is to assume that the McCain -10 poll is absolutely right, and the other poll is absolutely wrong.
Not only is that bad math, it goes completely against the point of this site. Look to your right, my friends. Nate weights the PPP poll at 1.42, and the Rasmussen poll at 0.98. Why? Because, while Rasmussen is generally slightly more accurate, PPP sampled more than twice as many people. So taking the two polls together, you'd actually say that Obama's ahead. Slightly -- I'd get the two-poll average at Obama 45.55-McCain 44.9, though I'm tired and my math may be wrong.
So there!!!
Sorry! McCain +10.
Paging Dr. Freud...
With the overwhelming support for Obama over McCain in European countries as shown in polls this week, one has to wonder what they will think if the U.S.A. elects McCain.
The favorability rating of the American PEOPLE could go right down the sewer in Europe if we are going against their overwhelmingly favorite candidate. America's image overseas will be at rock-bottom if we don't choose change.
we won't know much until mid-September
the veeps haven't even been picked yet.
If you look at the most important key states, they are :
Ohio
Michigan
Nevada
New Hampshire
Virginia
Colorado
Romney helps in most of these states enough that I think McCain HAS to pick him at this point...
@Anonymous humanist: It looks like "markyt" independently noticed the issue too (7:56 pm).
It's clear that Nate thinks pre-July Rasmussen state polls include leaners; he came very close to saying so in a previous post. It's equally clear that Scott Rasmussen indicates they do not, because every Rasmussen release averages the new number without leaners with the old polls. Given that Nate and Rasmussen share data, that's baffling. I'm also surprised that Nate hasn't responded yet. I've put posts in the comment section and emailed 538, but nothing. Nate does often wade into the comments section when there's an unanswered methodological question. So, putting on my hermeneutic hat, I think it's possible that he's trying to get the facts straight from Rasmussen and hasn't responded because he's still waiting to get more information.
A few threads ago (7/18 polls) I did a simple-minded average of the Rasmussen state shift toward McCain. In other words, I just averaged the results for each state; no weighting by electoral votes or population or anything. Here's an update with the more recent polls included:
(The first number is the result if we assume the old polls were without leaners; the second with. Positive numbers indicate shifts toward McCain.)
AR: +4 +1
CO: -1 -5
GA: +1 -1
IA: -6 -6
KS: +12 +9
LA: +10 +11
ME: +14 +12
MI: -5 -5
MN: -4 -5
MO: +6 +6
NC: +1 +1
NJ: +6 +4
NV: -5 -5
OH: +9 +5
OR: -1 -1
VA: +2 +1
WA: +10 +9
WI: -8 -9
Average:+2.5 +1.2
It's now over one percentage point different! That's surely having an effect on the Super Tracker at this point.
To put this bluntly, 538, pollster.com, FHQ, and RCP are imputing a move in the Rasmussen state numbers that is twice as large as that given by Rasmussen himself in his press releases.
Nate: Please respond to this issue. We've been talking about it for several days, and these recent results are just making the disparity larger. If there's something we're missing, let us know, so that I don't just keep rumbling on about it. On the other hand, if you're working on a fix, let us know that too.
--Scott
Nate,
Reading Abramowitz's comment, I realized that you should be able to quantify the degree to which a poll is an outlier.
If you track the expected error on your predictions, including a term for the increase in variance over time, you should be able to construct a probability distribution for polling results. It would also be a good test for your new model, to give a sense of its predictive capability.
Everyone is overlooking the residual Hillary factor. The often-proclaimed fact that the vast majority of Hillary supporters have migrated to Obama still leaves about 3 to 4 million HRC primary voters unaccounted for. If the election is close enough, those HRC diehards become exactly the decisive swing vote.
In the discussion of cell phones in Nate's earlier post today, he said that the Rasmussen Ohio poll so much in discussion today had this comment: "The poll has McCain leading 50-39 among voters aged 18-29, and 67-33 among voters aged 30-39. Obama leads 55-36 among voters in their 40s, and then McCain leads by single-digit margins among voters aged 50 and up. Such an age distribution is inconsistent with most other polling that we have seen in this election." I also find it improbable, given everything I've read here and elsewhere about the election, that McCain could have such a lead in the cohort of voters up to age 39. The number crunchers among us should be able to figure out what the Ohio results would say with a more typical response among these voters. In other words, I think the Rasmussen Ohio result must be viewed highly suspiciously.
My apologies. The first sentence in my post should read: In the discussion of cell phones in Nate's earlier post today, he said about the Rasmussen Ohio poll so much in discussion:
The latest Ohio poll is not good news. Even if it's a statistical outlier, I doubt it would swing by more than 10 points' worth. I think SUSA, QPac, Research 2000 or whomever does the next poll in Ohio will show a slimmer McCain lead.
That Eurotrip/forieng policy bump, if and when it occurs, can't happen fast enough.
ajb, while Ras has a better record than Qpac, it's not by that big a margin. No, the only reason that this poll overshadows the Qpac poll is that 10>8 and July comes after June.
Scratch that above comment. It was PPP, not QPac, that posted the 8 point lead for Obama.
Yes, I can agree that Ras is more reliable than PPP.
Adam said:
"We've seen this before. In the primaries Obama never won a state he wasn't supposed to."
It may not have surprised YOU that Obama romped in lots of very white states in the Midwest and Rocky Mountain regions, but it sure as hell surprised a lot of people!
Michael said...
>Adam said:
>"We've seen this before. In the primaries Obama never won a state he wasn't supposed to."
It may not have surprised YOU that Obama romped in lots of very white states in the Midwest and Rocky Mountain regions, but it sure as hell surprised a lot of people!
Don't forget the Indiana primary. Sure it wasn't a win, but it was sure as hell was a surprise to everyone.
To the people concerned with Barak not winning the white vote...
When was the last time the democratic candidate(win or lose) won the majority of white voters?
Cugel:
Haha @ Colorado Springs.
Any chance you folks can carve that whacko town out of the beautiful, libertarian state of Colorado and toss it into Kansas where it belongs?
Obama's comments and reception on his tour so far are impressive and presidential. McCain's gaffes, mis-speaks are telling. Jed Lewison's "McCains Never Ending War" clip is also damaging to McCain.
Certainly when team Obama shifts into gear following the DNC convention, I think the focussed messaging timed to impact decisions at election time will be sweeping.
Obama's pollings do look good for a "novice".
Anonymous @11:17:
"Let me get this straight, one bad poll for Obama in Ohio, and a bunch of the pro-Obama supporters, incredibly including Nate, are ready to throw the state overboard? Go ahead, I encourage you, but boy is that naive. The Dem's stand a very good chance in Ohio if they would just hold their water and push forward."
With all due respect to Nate, this is a great blog but it is ... a blog. People expressing their anxiety on a blog is not the same thing as the Democrats giving up a state. I somehow doubt the army of volunteers in Ohio are going to throw up their hands and cancel their efforts based on the polls.
sylphhead... you do also agree that the PPP poll should be weighted more heavily, as Nate weights it?
What is key is that the effect of McCain switching to a Karl Rove campaign strategy is kicking in. I think the gloves are off - morality and all that is off the table - the McCain camp now want to tear Obama down however they can. McCain's latest statement about Obama wanting his own political victory more than military victory in Iraq is a direct mirror of the arguments Bush used against Kerry in 2004. It is funny how little the media reported how McCain has recently hired many of Roveians to run his campaign.
I grew up in a republican part of Ohio and I seriously doubt that after the absymal job that King George and Tricky Dick have done the last 8 years, many of these people will be voting for more of the same. I am not a poll expert by a long shot but Rasmussen seems to constantly favor McCain. I will only believe these results when I see additional evidence.
Scott,
The comparison I'm looking for is between the share of the vote of Obama+McCain before and after the July surge, with and withot leaners. I think this comparison would be even more meaningful than an Email from Rasmussen telling us whether he did or did not change his methodology or his presentation. I'll get to this today myself if I have the time.
You're right it's getting to the point it might be visible in the overall results. Especially since it has more impact more recently, which the supertracker erroneously reads as a further downwards trend.
BTW, I don't think it's possible to suggest how to divide the weight because we don't know Nate's weighting mechanism for supertracker purposes. But in principle the weighting should be dynamic, gradually moving from leaners excluded to leaners included. Note that by our suggestion, leaners included would be effectively dropped from the supertracker on July, because they have no comparable (which seems to me right).
Since I don't want to drivel up the Kaine thread, today's Ras tracker: 45-42 Obama without leaners, 47-45 Obama with.
He's also promising polls on FL and MN today. Keep in mind that Ras-MN has had Obama with a commanding lead for some time now (never lower than +13, and was +17 not two weeks ago), while the closest Ras-FL has ever been is M+7 last month.
I find it hilarious that all the pollsters are still thinking in a box. Obama has never put much stock in OH or Fla. That was the Gore and Kerry losing strategy. Why should Dems bet the farm on either like Keey and Gore, since Fla has voted Dem 2 times in the last 10 elections and OH just 3 times in 10. The sign of true stupidity is doing the same thing and expecting a different result. Obama is not stupid thus not betting on OH and Fla. Obama can win without either by IA, CO, NM gains and hold MI and PA and it's all over. That is their real strategy. The back up after that is VA or IN. He has always polled better in VA than OH or Fla so why not focus on that. Guess what he has if people have been paying attention. The demographics of DC suburbanites, minorities, highly educated in VA favors Obama more than OH or Fla. OH and Fla though they have been over glorified in importance the last few elections, are not that way in the Obama campaign. Obama campaign is not betting the farm on OH b/c they are very smart, they know they can't change the minds of people that are in economic hardship such as OH, but continuously vote against their own economic interests by voting for Bush twice and possibly voting McCain, who is Bush part III. Dems aren't going to win Fla either; the Jews aren't going to vote for Black guy and the Cubans vote for RepubliCans, as they win thes ridiculous pander game.The pander game of the Cuban embargo and anything anti-castro. We have a ridiculous embargo on Cuba, but our largest trading partner is China, yea those communist with gross human rights violations; who make 50% of everything you see in the store. US foreign policy is stupid in this regard!
People need to realize Obama is not running the Kerry or Gore campaign of Fla/ OH or bust.
Seeing as Obama actually has polled better in Ohio than in Virginia, it's a bit odd to make a claim to the contrary, though I do agree that he has a better chance of picking up VA rather than OH. It'd be silly to at least not try to contest Florida by doing things like sending in organizers. (And there's been a few suggestions that the second-generation and third-generation Cubans are nowhere near as hard-line as their predecessors; IIRC, both of the Diaz-Balart brothers are actually in danger of losing their seats.)
Speaking of Virginia... PPP: Obama 46 McCain 44. In other words, no change in relative terms from last month's PPP. Interestingly, while last month's D/R/I split was 45/30/25, this month's is 36/36/28, and there's no gender gap showing up in the results.
It's interesting that Another explanation is that Obama simply can't seal the deal with voters in Ohio who are undecided. McCain's lead in the Rasmussen poll increased significantly once the "leaners" were included.Obama seems unable to close the race, much like he could not close the race against Hillary Clinton...
Also, to the commenter above who says Obama isn't running the Kerry campaign - the fact is, without Ohio, Obama's chances of winning in November are very low.
"SG said...
Cugel:
Haha @ Colorado Springs.
Any chance you folks can carve that whacko town out of the beautiful, libertarian state of Colorado and toss it into Kansas where it belongs?"
WE WISH! LOL!
Actually we haven't heard as much out if the wing-nuts in Colo. Springs in recent elections. They can't be happy that Colorado has moved decisively to the left (from their perspective), but they were SOOO extreme they frightened everybody.
We like freedom a lot here in Colo. and we don't much like extremists, which is why Obama's FISA vote may cost him some in this state. It's received a lot more local publicity than Sen. Salazar's similar vote. Bush style extremism has put everybody off. The fundies love it but everybody else hates it.
That's an important lesson for President Obama. He will need to make a constant effort that Bush NEVER made, to visibly listen to people who might disagree with him and appear to actually take other views into account.
I find it odd - and more than a little worrisome - that the simulations show Obama losing the election 97.85% of the time if he loses OH. If the election were held today he would likely win the Kerry states and IA, NM & CO, whether or not he won OH. With the regression analysis, these states are all still projected to favor Obama in the fall. That spike at 273 is clearly this scenario - and the spike at 293 includes OH. I just can't imagine that the "Obama loses without OH" scenarios are 98% more likely, given that both currently and moving forward these states are all expected to go for Obama.
There are of course a few other possibilities with VA, MO, and NV, and a few others. I hate to think it rests on OH again. Some of those simlations at either end are just not going to materialize (e.g. McCain 438 - Obama 100). The odds of Obama winnig without OH seem to me like they might be under 50% - but under 3? Is this because of the demographic link between OH, MI and PA? Is there a huge assumption that if he loses OH, he loses all three? What about the fact that MI and especially PA have continually polled better for Obama so far this cycle - consistent with their performance in the last two elections? I am concerned - but also not convinced.
Definitively an OUTLIER. Rasmussen has new Fl poll out today, Obam now leading by one point, an eight point swing from before. The Ohio poll wouldve had to reflect a massive swing in voter opinion and would be reflected elsewhere. Surely Obama can't lose 18 points in Ohio and gain 8 in Fl off the same News Cycle.
Obama Ohio Futures are in a trading range of 60 to 70, having dropped from 69 to 65 since the weekend. The market seems to be discounting the latest Rasmussen poll results for Ohio.
Whatever the cause, these results validate the use of the yellow regression line. I recall a fair amount of criticism directed at that little widget. Its small sample size and all, but.. kudos to you, Nate.
Many of the coments on the importance of OH being a must fro Obama to win are false. That is the thinking of the Republicans placing all importance on OH and Fla. They ahve no path to victory without both, Obama has multiple paths without both. The SW is very hopsitable to Dems if they actually campaign their, which was Kerry's downfall the Dems's had carried NM 3 times in a row and Kerry didn;t put any effort there, the Des had even won NV 2 of 3 and AZ once. Obama sees futile ground in the SW and as the saying goes," GO west young man..go west!" He's leading in NM, CO, NV.
Obama is going to win and it would be great if he wins without OH. The Dems can finally get the idea that there is more than OH and Fla to win an election. Dean started that idea about expanding the field in 2004 and Obama is actually implementing it. Dean took alot of flack for putting DNC resources into the SW..CO, NV, and places like MT, ND, SD, .etc...and other places that were traditionally Red states. Dems have made great gains in those states at the state level.
My ideal win for Obama IMO to finally change the Dem party mindset would be a win of 2004 DEms states plus IA, NM, CO, NV, VA..and maybe IN(border state polling close).They lose OH and Fla and still win by 60 EC votes. That is the best thing that could happen to the DEm party to change tgeir mindset of Fla and OH being the end all and be all. It would also change the Republicans thiking and both parties might actually run national campaigns in the future based on the changing demographics of the country.
Obama was at about 330 EV just a few weeks ago, this is a tad bit troubling, time will tell if things go back up or not. Interesting indeed. In the end I still see a political landslide one way or another.
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