For the first time since shortly after clinching the Democratic nomination, we now have Barack Obama as less than a 60 percent favorite to win the election. Our simulations presently project Obama to win the election 58.4 percent of the time, with McCain winning the remaining 41.6 percent.
The main culprit for the decline are the new numbers out of Ohio, where Rasmussen shows John McCain jumping into a 10-point lead. We have already discussed this particular poll at length. Are the changes caused by differences in measuring party identification? No, not really. Rasmussen assumes a slightly redder electorate than other pollsters, but Obama's numbers had declined among Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike. Could there be problems related to the sampling of young voters in this survey, who went surprisingly strongly for McCain? That is a more viable explanation. But it still would not account for the entirety of the decline.
There is also new polling out from American Research Group, which has Florida and New Hampshire moving in John McCain's direction. In Florida, Obama now trails by 2 after having led by 5 points, and in New Hampshire, he leads by 2 after having led by 12.
The sky is not falling for Obama in Colorado, where Rasmussen has him retaining a 3-point lead (the lead is 7 points before leaners are factored in). This is consistent with the polling in Colorado throughout the election; Obama's leads have generally been in the small single digits, but he has almost always held one.
When we throw everything into the 538 blender, what we find is Ohio rating strictly as a toss-up. The fact that Ohio appears to be polling a point or two behind the national numbers for Obama rather than a point or two ahead has significant implications across the map. Viable 'Plan B' states like Colorado, Virginia, Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada and perhaps Montana become even more important, as they, rather than Ohio, may now represent the path of least resistance toward an Obama electoral victory.
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Today's Polls, 7/22
-- Nate Silver at 6:52 PM
Labels: colorado, florida, new hampshire, ohio, today's polls
112 comments
Young voters feel the pinch at the gas pump, perhaps more than other voters due to the fact that most of them are new to the work force and have lower paying jobs.
The GOP is hammering steadily on their advantage gas price issue and that may be causing the erosion in Obama support.
to any pollsters out there - please poll OH! Let's try to make sense out of all the crazy OH numbers
Thanks for the honest assessment. It appears to me this thing is becoming a dead-heat. I appreciate your objectivity in admitting this reality. Keep up the good work. You may be for Obama, but you don't seem to be drinking the Obama Kool-aid. Kudos for a first rate website.
My usual comment, until 538 addresses it:
Yes, the move in the polls back toward McCain is real and it's significant. But it's smaller than Nate's post and the 538 methodology makes it appear.
Following the suggestion by "anonymous humanist" in a previous thread, the new Rasmussen Ohio poll should be treated as two new polls (at half strength each):
--A new poll in the Rasmussen Ohio series has been released which shows McCain +6, compared to McCain +1 last month.
--A brand new poll, in a new Ohio series "Rasmussen with leaners," shows McCain +10 in Ohio. There is no previous polling of this type to compare it to.
Since, instead, the 538 model is treating the +10 poll as being in the old series, it's getting the trend wrong, and thus overstating the (very real) shift back toward McCain.
I can't believe McCain is going to win this election... what the hell is wrong with our country
Bottom line: if Obama wins Ohio he's won the presidency. He has to do whatever it takes to win it.
Sorry about that Nate, the sky is falling for Obama in CO. The three point lead for Obama is belied by the favorability ratings of the two candidates (61% McCain and 52% for Obama)
Many would say that the favorability is a truer predictor that actual poll results. It is similar to the question of finding out how someone thinks by asking what the people in your neighborhood think about an issue. This might also be an indication of a partial Bradley effect.
Begich is up 9 points in the Alaska Senate race.
Inching closer to 60...
Nate -- please add a simulator to your site so that visitors can click a button and watch a run of your simulation!
Like the one at
http://www.270towin.com/simulation/
It's addictive!
This is the most objective site I have found on the web. I check it daily. RealCLear Politics being a close second. Thanks for keeping the hype out of the analysis. Great work as always. I live in flyover country, people are open to both sides, but are getting very turned off by the Obama media surrogates.
Btw, what "GOP advantage on gas prices?"
I'm looking around at recent national polls, and so far I've only found one that directly asked that question, the recent CBS/NYT poll, conducted July 7-14. In that, 30% thought Obama's policies would reduce gas prices, and 50% thought they wouldn't. Not a great number, but for McCain the number was 25% Yes, 56% No, i.e. very slightly worse.
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/politics/20080716_POLL.pdf
I can't find any Rasmussen poll on gas prices directly, but on energy they show voters preferring Obama's policies 44-42.
http://rasmussenreports.com/scoreboards/by_the_numbers2/by_the_numbers
So if anything, the issue looks like a slight advantage to Obama, although most voters seem (rightly) skeptical that either candidate would have much luck lowering gas prices.
jack-be-nimble:
I have a favorable attitude toward McCain as well. Just as I had a favorable attitude toward my saintly grandmother when she was suffering from dementia in a nursing home.
Doesn't mean I think either of them are presidential material.
About 26% of the population thinks that McCain is too old to be President. On the order of 58% have a favorable opinion of him.
For some reason, people seem to think this has no overlap.
I suspect there will be quite a few people, mostly women, who like McCain, don't like Obama, and will vote for Obama. One reason is the aforementioned age problem, the other is that Obama's positions on women's issues much more closely match the vast majority of women.
Now I'm going to get the usual political crap. But I'm just explaining the polls here. Just the facts please.
Sorry SG,
Thats not how favorability ratings work. Partisans from both sides don't have favorable opinions of the opposing candidate. What remains are the mushy middle that can have a favorable of both sides.
More significantly are the rising negatives (unfavorables) for Obama.
SG:
I have a favorable attitude towards Barack Obama. Just like I have a favorable attitude towards that nigger my daddy uses to help get in his cotton crop every year.
Just because I think the world of both of 'em and that they are hard workers doesn't mean they are Presidential material.
The GOP wants to drill NOW.
So do the American people, if you believe ANY poll out there.
If you don't believe that gives the GOP an advantage, that is your opinion.
The racist comment above likely comes from a lib.
This is depressing. Obama isn't going to win Ohio, and GOPs will win again. Well, at least we'll have Hillary in 2012 to put our hopes in.
Jesus, it's not even August yet and already people are writing off this state or that state or whatever. Get over it... polls go up and down and then the conventions come in and flip everything over in one direction or the other as the race sort of "resets" again. Obama hasn't lost anything yet, not by a longshot.
And even if Obama loses OH, as Nate points out he has plenty of other options to win the presidency. Namely, Kerry states + CO, NM, and IA should do the trick just fine.
Everyone calm down and take a deep breath. We have a ways to go here.
And someone delete that racist assholes comment.
About the Ohio poll from Rasmussen: Do we know, like in the Newsweek poll, whether or not the drilling questions were asked before or after the Presidential question? If they were, that could really have influenced the results, especially the young voters maybe?
"Sixty-four percent (64%) support offshore oil drilling while 22% are opposed. These figures are close to the national average. Fifty-four percent (54%) say reducing the price of gas and oil is more important than protecting the environment. Just 28% disagree and say protecting the environment is more important."
That would definitely sway voters.
Finally, Nate, the advertising dollars being spent right now are heavily in McCain's favor, isn't that likely a reason for his surge, especially in swing states? I almost wonder if advertising dollars spent in previous elections at this point had a negative correlation to victory.