Yes folks, it's officially political junk time. Barack Obama will spend tomorrow in the 39th state, North Dakota, and John McCain will spend tomorrow in the 51st state, Mexico. [North Dakota] hasn’t gone for a Democrat since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. It’s been reliably “red” in presidential contests for 40 years. The suggestion that the state is taking on a shade of purple – it could go either way – seems ludicrous, especially to Republican faithful who can’t conceive of North Dakotans tilting blue. Well, that’s what Republicans thought about New Hampshire, where Bill Clinton won twice, where Sen. John Kerry won in 2004 and where George W. Bush won by a thin single point in 2000 over Al Gore. The state’s Democratic governor won re-election in 2006 with a whopping 74 percent of the vote. Political winds change. North Dakota is not New Hampshire, but at least one public poll and several “internal” polls suggest Obama has a chance to beat McCain in the Peace Garden State. The polls are intriguing because they are the first indications that North Dakota’s 40-year Republican grip on presidential politics is not as strong as it once was. Not weak, mind you, but not a guarantee. [...] If Obama can challenge in a state that’s gone for the Republican candidate since 1964, he can challenge anywhere. [...] State Republican Party officials tend to dismiss Obama’s appeal to North Dakotans. But remember, these are the same people who endorse congressional candidates [...] who rarely get an anemic 30 percent of the vote against Democratic incumbents. These are the same people who grudgingly support Gov. John Hoeven only because he’s wildly popular; some of them believe he’s not “Republican enough.” Their analysis of Obama’s chances is partisan boilerplate. No one should conclude that Obama has a lock on North Dakota. He certainly does not. But given the surprises in this year’s presidential campaign, it would be unwise to assume McCain has the lock. That’s the dynamic the Obama campaign senses, and that’s one reason he’s in North Dakota today. 
But a quick sampling of what visiting a state like North Dakota can do for you: check out this editorial from the Fargo Forum, which endorsed George W. Bush in 2004:
7.03.2008
Something You Probably Never Expected to See
@ 3:40 AM
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44 comments
Why have there been no recent polls or more recent from Ohio, Indiana, MONTANA, ALASKA, NORTH DAKOTA(never), MISSOURI(important swing state) or Nevada?.
Why always NY and CA?
North Dakota will only vote for Obama in a 1964/1984-style landslide. So far, there is no indication that this will happen.
Why there is no indication than Obama can win ND?
There are polls? Never in ND or Montana.
Why? Obama is with tv ad in the states.
anon,
Because Obama, by all accounts, has a mid single-digit lead over McCain nationally. George Bush won ND by 27 points in 2000 and 2004. The electorate in ND is essentially made up of the same people that rejected the liberal John Kerry. This is not a situation of demographic shifts like we are seeing in VA and NH.
Obama's positions on issues are not measurably any different than Kerry's. There is simply no reason to believe that Obama is going to overcome a 27-point defecit in ND, unless or until he can gain a solid double-digit national lead.
And to follow up, I'm not saying "No He Can't" win ND. It's just that in before he has any chance to do so, he's going to first need to nail down OH, MO, NV and FL.
There's no indication of a landslide yet, and there's no indication that there can't be one. I think the whole point here is that McCain shouldn't assume he has ND simply because it isn't the reddest state and it's so far away from the election still. Also, this very site gives Obama over a one-in-four chance of a landslide currently, but again this is largely because we are so far away from the election. The less McCain assumes now, the better off he'll be. Otherwise, he might indeed be facing a landslide come November.
Anon,
McCain shouldn't take any state for granted and it wouldn't kill him to spend an afternoon or two at a town-hall in Bismarck, but unless he starts to tank in FL or MO or NV, he'd be wise not to spend a dime there.
It's always a good idea for a presidential candidate to spend Independence day in Mexico. Mexico's electoral votes could make all the difference in this election.
As someone who lived in North Dakota for 36 years, I find it hard to believe that a Democratic Presidential candidate could win there. Then again, I've read the Fargo Forum for years and years and that is just about as foreboding as it gets. I'll suspend disbelief and think that ND is in play. It would be fantastic to see it go blue.
"If Obama can challenge in a state that’s gone for the Republican candidate since 1964, he can challenge anywhere."
More utter idiocy from the irrelevant peanut gallery. This race features changing demographic alignments. Simply because one state changes means little nationally. For instance, West Virginia was won handily by Bush in a close election in 2000 - although it had been won by the Dems in every election since 1932 except the landslide defeats of 1956, 1972 and 1984 (the Dems don't have a good "since 1964" because they get routed more often). If Bush could win in one of the most reliably Democratic states could he win anywhere? Rubbish.
Obama is ahead by about 3-5 points in the polls, so clearly he is not in landslide territory. He might get there, but the fact that formerly safe states are becoming open is interesting more for the long term implications of shifting demographics (and worth explaining), than for the implications of this for Obamellatio.
Guess that SUSA poll in February showing Obama up 46-42 over McCain in North Dakota was a mirage. Must be North Dakota's shifting demographics.
I've been following the Obama-Kerry race myself. I have it now at approximately 441-97, with the only states Obama "losing" are the bluest of blue states and Arizona. In case you can't guess, Obama "wins" where he runs closer or wider than Kerry, and "loses" when his margin isn't as large as Kerry's.
So far, it's a landslide, and contrary to what everyone has told you since 2004, Kerry lost a very, very close race. Of course, phalanxes of Bushie vote padders helped. Not sure they'll be around this time, though...
Oh man HosertoHoosier, I see what you did there. You took the name "Obama", and combined it with the word "fellatio." My goodness that's just plum hilarious.
I looked the exit poll from Nevada in 2004.
Kerry lost by only 21.000 vote.
For me, it's impossible for Obama lose in Nevada with the big turnout.
Las Vegas and Clark County will be big this year.
http://us.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/NV/P/00/
http://us.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/NV/P/00/epolls.0.html
New Rasmussen poll out today for Montana. Obama leading McCain 48-43. I would think this suggests that much of the map is in play this election.
Hey, Anonymous (7:51 AM): there is no such MT poll that I can find. the latest shows McCain up by a comfortable 8%. The West will prove infertile ground for the easterner, Barack Obama.
There is an epxression, that cannot be used in polite comapny,a bout folks who wind up with too much money too fast. Obama's recent behavior shows that he may fall pray to the monicker.
I am happy to watch him waste his money in quixotic campaign unlikely to yield much in the way of results and probably help Republicans on the down ballot do better as those who oppose (and fear) him come out in even bigger numbers.
I stand correct -- there is such a MT poll. The rest of my comments stand!
There is an epxression, that cannot be used in polite comapny,a bout folks who wind up with too much money too fast. Obama's recent behavior shows that he may fall pray to the monicker.
There's an expression that can be used in a polite company about folks who try to use ten cent words with 5 cent spelling and grammar - "racist dufus".
Just saw the Montana poll anon 8:10. That's huge. One poll doesn't make a confirmed lead, but Rasmussen has been relatively accurately, though tending to find lower numbers for Obama in previously red states, so a poll like this is definitely a good sign.
Can't wait for Nate's analysis of today's polls now.
The "Where They Are Thursday" graphic is from Time's "The Page." You may want to cite it...
Amen, Spike. That's very good.
"Their analysis of Obama’s chances is partisan boilerplate."
Nice bit of wordsmithing there. I think I'll keep it handy for discussing the sort of comments that are sadly becoming more common here.
Adam, I think you are mistaken to assume Obama cannot do significantly better than Kerry in certain states just based on your analysis of their policy positions. A huge factor in the vote is the candidate's personalities and how they are viewed. Different candidates play to different audiences. For whatever reason, I think it's undeniable that Obama does extremely well (relative to other Democrats and especially in comparison to Kerry) in the upper NW quadrant of the country.
I'd call this the "big eddie" effect.
Rasmussen came out with a poll for Montana today. Guess who is ahead: Obama! 48 to 43. You may want to adjust the red shading you have for Montana Nate, looks like it is a pale blue
So McCain is meeting with foreign leaders when his campaign should have him at an independence day vet rally in Virginia, and Obama is pandering to ND farmers to back up his big ad buy. Sums up the race I think.
Best to let Obama pursue his 15% chance at ND's 3 electoral votes while McCain spends his summer burnishing his presidential qualifications and improving his image nationally.
There is really no reason why North Dakota should be so conservative/Republican.
With liberal/libertarian Minnesota nextdoor, and with a steady influence of non-American media and culture from across the border in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (to those single-digit-IQ Republicans who post here...those are Canadian provinces), North Dakotans should be far more moderate and progressive-thinking than states due south of it.
Perhaps 2008 is when the Democrats finally tap into that.
But....where are the polls??
I don't think ND has been polled since April, when McCain's advantage in the state I believe was 5 or 6 points.
To Pete Kent:
The West will prove infertile ground for the easterner, Barack Obama.
Clearly you were educated at a public school in a red state!
It seems that according to you...
#1 - Colorado and New Mexico are not part of the West
#2 - Illinois is located on the east coast somewhere between New York City and Maine
That's okay though. I'm sure you're better at spitting tobacco than I am :)
To SG:
Show me with whom you associate and I will tell you who you are.
Your snide and effete and assumed denigrations of my character reflect poorly not only on you, but on your candidate as well.
Notice I spoke in the future tense. The western states are far from in the bag for Obama. Indeed the last poll in Oregon had him leading by only 3%. Shivers! Eh?
Let me tell you something about the West -- to folks out there, Chicago is the East. The don't call it the Continental Divide for nothing.
There is simply no precedent for a candidate like Obama winning the kind of landslide that would sweep MT and ND and many of these other states into his column. History argues against it. His candicacy, background and positions are all big negatives.
Obama own throwing of the race card card has only served to debase the value of poll results as McCain supporters are forced to go underground, waiting to surface in the privacy of the voting booth.
Now go bite you nails on your own lawn!
Peter:
It could just be that the disastrous Bush Administration (and please do yourself a favour by not trying to claim that it was NOT disastrous) is what it took to snap the Mountainous West out of its red-state brainwashing.
With polls showing close races in several Western states, it's clear that many Westerners just don't care that Obama is a liberal - because "liberal" is no longer the bad word it used to be. No doubt Obama is more left-wing than the typical voter in ND or MT, but maybe - just maybe - they'd rather see a cultured, educated, worldly "Easterner" run the country instead of a braindead, hick Southerner. And make no mistake - even though McCain is not from the South and is not beholden to the same groups that Bush was, the Republican will remain in the clutches of Southern social conservatism (i.e. more debates about "boys kissing", as Bill Maher would put it).
Combine that with moderation influences from Canada (in MT and ND anyway), transplanted west-coasters moving inland, and higher educational attainment and you have the possibility of significant shifts in that part of the country.
I'm so tired of all you liberal, elitist, city boy, East Coasties degrading Southerners and country people. Peter Kent is the only one with any sense around here. I'm from the liberal West Coast (though not the liberal part of it) and am sick and tired of Easterners thinking they're better than anyone else
Obama's crazy to think he can win North Dakota?
That's nothing. McCain is trying to win Mexico!
SG:
States that Bush won by 20 pts are not going swing so easily to an unknown black man named Barack Hussein Obama as you think. I know you are looking to have your liberalism vidicated by your hero, but "liberal" reamins a dirty word in much of the country. So dirty that they are forced to re-brand themselves as "progressives." Now we are talking about branding problems.
BTW I point out Obama's race as a fact. The Democrats have played identity politics for years cribbing together coaltions of interest groups on the left with minority and gender-sexual persuaion based voters while ignoring the great mass of people in the middle.
It is an odd year don't you think, when white men are the key swing voters?
White men who cling to their guns, like the cowboys in Montana!
Sure Peter.
Like that "special interest group" known as....women.
My point about Obama's liberalism is that it's already an established fact. People know and they either support his liberalism, or they don't but don't see it as an impediment to voting for him. After a horrible 7 years with a shit-for-brains President, a failed neocon foreign policy, beholden to Chinese debt-holders, a polluted environment and tens of millions without healthcare, the status quo is no longer an option for any educated, thinking person.
Big swings do occur in a single election cycle. West Virginia demonstrated a huge swing in 2000 as its people suddenly decided to become retards. In the West, it's more of an awakening to the idea that the party that best epitomizes libertarian values is not the Republican party.
SG:
It's amazing how snide you can be: Calling people retards and talking out of your hat -- which I am sure is more of a cap and could not hold one, let alone ten gallons!
There must be agreat nimber of people who are uneducated/retarded out there, given that Obama cannot break 20% in the polls.
You think that Obama's liberalism is an established fact? Stop gazing at your navel! The NBA finals are barely in the books and we have not gotten through the All-Star break yet. Few of the people have been paying attention. But I am sure once they all read your averrment of Obama's liberalism, they will swoon right along with you.
Are you for oil drilling? Of course not! Better to pollute Nigeria and the deserts of Arabia than do it clean and right here at home. NIMBY
The party of Nancy pelosi is not the party of libertarian values. To people in the West and the heartland -- all those states in the middle it is the party of freaks and geeks -- the vote for attractive local Democrats, but shun the national party. They are not waiting for the most liberal member of the Senate, a community organizer from Chicago to save them.
The elctorate is flirting with Obama. Bush has seemingly pissed off a lot of people. We live in dangerous times with economic and foreign perils troubling us. The know quantity, the steady hand, but with a fresh approach is what America wants.
I am sorry but I doubt seriously that when it comes down to it Obama can win this thing. If it goes badly for him expect him to lose in 40 states.
McCain has come back from the dead before. Obama only pretends to be the Messiah!
Sorry -- I meant to say 50% in the polls!
Did I miss something this afternoon? Did someone decide to turn 538 into Daily Kos?
Guys, let's not engage with people who are here to agitate. The beauty of this site is civility combined with razor-sharp analysis in both posts and comments.
If Pete Kent chooses to use 538 to push his view of the election, so be it. SG, I understand being irritated, but getting into a region v. region thing seems like losing proposition. What I love about 538 is reading about different regions, getting a much clearer understanding of the polls and demographics in play, and how smart the people who come here are. I'm sure you appreciate many of the same things too. How about we just leave Pete alone in his corner of the sandbox? I don't think he'll like it here as much if nobody plays with him.
Try again, Pete Kent. I'm a Westerner; born in CO, never lived east of Houston and most of my life in CA (and most of that in the conservative parts of CA). Calling Chicago "the East" and Obama an "Easterner" sounded stupid to me when I first read the remark, and sounds more and more stupid each time I read you trying to back it up (kinda like the Bush Administration insisting there really are WMD in Iraq).
There is, you know, the great middle part of the country, neither east nor west? Or is that too much nuance for your conservative psyche?
McCain's still scrambling to try to pull together the GOP base and get their support--long, long, long after that should have been set in concrete.
Oregon's polls are flirting with only a small margin for Obama? Gee, Virginia's polls are too. That bodes real well for McCain.
Pete Kent:
50% as a magic threshhold mainly applies to incumbents.
FWIW, the West, having relatively few blacks, pays far less attention to skin color than do those areas where there is a substantial black population.
BTW, that Oregon poll is clearly an outlier. If you look at the details, it showed 48% R and 45% R. The actual figures are far more tilted to the Dems.
The Dems began 2008 with a registration lead of 70,000, which has more than doubled. There have been more than 115,000 new registrations from early January to late April, and the number of Republicans has remained essentially flat. The new resitrants are either Idenpendent of Democrats.
Obama has a substantially better chance of carrying MT than McCain does of winning OR.
The next president will not be elected based strictly on partisanship as in the past. People's daily lives changed drastically mostly for the worst. People are hurting everywhere. This election is personal.
The war is taking a toll on so many young men and women; families split apart, tens of thousands od soldiers lost limbs and many more diagnosed with PTSD. Suicides are mounting. While the economy is sinking the price for gasoline, food, utilities is soaring.
With millions of home foreclosures the homeless numbers are rising. Los Angeles hosts a "tent" city for homeless people. Every night an estimated 500,000 Vets sleep under bridges, on the streets and in shelters.
The enormity of loss due to fires in the west, floods across the heartland, tornadoes and drought across much of the nation are staggering.
The middle-class, once the backbone of America, is almost non-existent. Hence should a situation occur we could not sustain ourselves because we are completely dependent on imported goods and food.
Things have changed dramatically in America. Most are not aware of how much poverty rose during the past 7.5 years due to the media's silence.
A father in Vermont said he had to choose between baby diapers and heating fuel -- he could not afford both. Two of the three times the family ran out of fuel their baby caught pneumonia. There are thousands of similar stories. People are suffering.
The contrast between Obama and McCain could not be more stark:
Obama offers practical, long-term solutions: investing in re-building our crumbling infrastructure, improving education, advancing green energy, encouraging R&D in science and technology that will provide jobs and jump start the economy.
His approach to foreign policy is sane and pragmatic. America's centuries-old tradition of using diplomacy and negotiations are right up Obama's alley. As a community organizer he learned the art of diplomacy which serves him well. Through out his career he honed those skills.
In contrast McCain is driven by ideology. He was dishonest telling the voters that drilling off-shore would provide immediate relief. The truth is that it would be at least ten years until production. Plus the energy companies own 68 million acres they have yet to drill. McCain's exaggerated the gas-tax benefits, too. Furthermore it would lay-off tens of thousands of workers. The savings at the pump over the summer would amount to maybe thirty dollars at most. And even then the price of oil will continue to surge ergo any money saved would stay in the pockets of the oil companies.
McCain proposes cutting corporate taxes by tens of billions in addition to making Bush tax cuts permanent. But if people have no money what good would that do?
Insofar as McCain's approach to foreign policy is using military force and bellicose tough talk.
After 7 years in Iraq having spent life and limbs and treasure of over $650 billion dollars to date McCain talks up "victory" to justify staying there. But victory is only won between militaries not against a population.
Moreover according to several reports US occupation in Iraq is fueling anti-Americanism and creating more extremists. Likewise Afghanistan. Both are abject failures.
Yet McCain will keep the troops there and has promised, "My friends, there will be more wars."
With food shortages, rising oil prices, a shrinking job market, unaffordable health insurance, an exponential increase in the frequency and intensity of natural disasters, etc. on the voters' minds makes it difficult to imagine partisanship and party loyalty being the determinate factor in this election.
In a nut shell:
McCain's ideology promises more of the same.
vs
Obama's pragmatic solutions promises change and prosperity.
That is why Obama will win.
Unlike Bush, Obama is running to be the President of the "United" States not President of the liberals or the democratic party.
One thing I think that is being overlooked with regards to the West has to do with nature. The West is known for it's hunting, fishing, hiking. It's absolutely beautiful vistas, clean skys & clear streams.
If you enjoy any of these things & many people in the West do, you have got to realize that voting Republican may not be your best choice to protect these resources. What good is it supporting the NRA if there isn't any game left to hunt? I may be wrong, maybe the West is filled with the same religious fanatics as in the Bible Belt but I have always thought Westerners were more of the Independant cut, more Libertarian even. That doesn't mean they will automatically vote republican this time just because they have in the past. Anyone with their eyes open can see what is happening to our natural environment.
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与本级人民政府统计机构统计调查取得的统计数据不一致的， 再次同声传译提请全国人惠州翻译公司。大常委会商务口译审议的统计法修订草案明确规定：深圳翻译公司，国家广州翻译公司统计数据以同声传译设备租赁国家统计局公布的数据为准俄语翻译，
政府有关部门统计调查取得的统计数据，与本级人民政府统计机构统计调查取得的统计数据不一致的，县级深圳翻译以上地方深圳同声传译人民政府设立广州翻译公司独立的统计机构翻译公司，，乡、法语翻译
上海翻译公司镇人民政府设置统计工作岗位上海翻译公司
英语翻译 ，配备专职或者兼职同传设备
同声传译统计人员，深圳日语
翻译
同声传译设备租赁。。新疆租车，依法管理统计工作同声传译设备租赁，
法语翻译
同声传译同声传译，同声传译设备
珠海翻译公司，实施统计调查。深圳手机号码，
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表决器。会议设备租赁
广州翻译公司
汕头翻译公司，
无线导览
会议设备租赁统计人员应当具备与其从事的统计工作相适应的专业知识和业务能力。
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