Just to tie together couple of things from yesterday: suppose that Barack Obama picks Evan Bayh as his running mate. Suppose this ticket wins. Do the Democrats lose a Senate seat?
Actually, it's not so clear. The Governor would get to make a two-year appointment if Bayh had to resign his seat, with a Special Election to be held in 2010. The present governor of Indiana is Mitch Daniels, a Republican. Unlike some states -- Arizona, for instance -- Indiana does not appear to have any requirement wherein a gubernatorial appointee must pick a candidate from the departing Senator's party.
But would Daniels still be Governor at the time Bayh resigned his seat? He's in a quasi-competitive race with Jill Long-Thompson. I'm not entirely sure how Indiana elections law works -- this is one of those instances where Google fails you --but I'd assume as a default that the incoming Governor would get to make the appointment (there's only a 49.99 percent chance that I'm wrong about this). If this whole parlay plays out, you could have a two-birds-with-one-stone, de facto Senate race in Indiana based on the gubernatorial result.
In any event, we have a very boring set of gubernatorial races this year, but Indiana is one that the Democrats ought to consider pouring some money into (and Republicans likewise to defend their incumbent). It's a state that has long been redder than it "should" be based on its demographics, and where there might be some long-run benefits to building out the party's infrastructure.
7.08.2008
Shadow Senate Race?
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No doubt. Missouri will be very competitive, where Democrat Jay Nixon is running for an open seat being vacated by one term Governor Matt Blunt (son of Roy), who is not very popular.
The Indiana race is of particular importance, because the Democrats have elected 4 new members of Congress from Indiana since 2006, and most of them would be vulnerable if their districts are redrawn by Republicans following the 2010 census.
IC [Indiana Code] 3-13-3-1 United States Senate; appointment to fill vacancy; special election
(a) A vacancy that occurs, other than by resignation, in the United States Senate shall be certified to the governor by the secretary of state.
(b) The governor shall immediately fill a vacancy in the United States Senate by appointing a person possessing the qualifications required under Article 1, Section 3, Clause 3 of the Constitution of the United States. The person appointed holds office until the next general election, when the vacancy shall be filled by the election of a Senator in a special election to hold office for the unexpired term.
(c) If a vacancy in the United States Senate occurs after the last day on which notice of the special election can be published under IC 3-10-8-4, the person appointed under subsection (b) holds office until the vacancy is filled in a special election held at the time of the next general election for which notice can be published under IC 3-10-8-4.
I have to believe that it is the new governor: the vacancy wouldn't occur until January 20th at noon, so unless Indiana Governors take their seats remarkably late, it'd be the guy currently sitting in the chair. Or lady.
Googling "Indiana Governor inauguration", I see that the last gov was inaugurated on Jan 10. One before that was on Jan 13. I believe that this means that its pretty likely that the gov will be inaugurated before Jan 20. I think Bayh could keep his Senate seat until after Indiana's new governor is inaugurated. He resigns the next day and still has a week before he gets inaugurated.
This is all dependent on the Dem winning the Gov's race, obviously.
I know it's historical and not exactly representative of today's demographics but the KKK has a very strong connection to Indiana. Indianapolis and Bloomington may skew the demographics and hide the heritage.
Do we consider the seat vacant only upon the Senator's swearing-in as VP? I don't know if Indiana's new governor would take office on the same day as the President/VP.
Nevermind...answered above...
Article 5 of the Indiana Constitution says that governors of Indiana are sworn in on the second Monday of January -- in 2009, that would be January 12.
Isabel,
You just beat me to it, so I will have to satisfy myself by saying it is Article 5, Section 9 of the Indiana Constitution, titled "Term of Office."
Have you guys seen the zogby interactive polls?
I know it's not the most credible poll...
Some examples of strange numbers:
NC: Obama 47, McCain 38
SC: Obama 42, McCain 41
MI: Obama 47, McCain 33, Barr 6
AR: Obama 41, McCain 39, Barr 4
NM: Obama 49, McCain 33, Barr 9
TX: Obama 42, McCain 39, Barr 6
and maybe the strangest of all:
AZ: Obama 42, McCain 39, Barr 7
They are giving Obama better numbers in most states. Florida and NH are exceptions:
http://www.zogby.com/50state
IC [Indiana Code] 3-13-3-1 ostensibly refers to vacancy (death) not resignation. I'll try to dig up the relevant provision.
According to a NY Times article dated December 13, 1988, VP-elect Quayle held his first news conference since the election - on the occasion of then Governor Orr selecting his replacement for the Senate, Dan Coats.
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=940DE5DA153AF930A25751C1A96E948260
Using that as a guide, my guess is that Indiana law hasn't changed in the interim and Mitch would get to name the next senator prior to 2009 and regardless of the outcome of the governor election. Alas,
I'm wrong. Please ignore last comment.
Patrick,
IIRC, Quayle resigned when the 1988 election was certified by the Electoral College, creating the vacancy on that day, before the next Governor was sworn in.
If Bayh were the VP nominee and Obama wins, then Bayh would not have to resign until January 20, 2009, at the time he would take the oath of office for VP (and AFTER the winner of the Governor's race in Indiana has been sworn in).
Just because Quayle opted to create the vacancy earlier does not require Bayh to do so, if this were to happen.
Theoretically, this is possible, but it also is highly unlikely.
Dan Quayle resigned the day after the electoral votes were certified because guess who was being sworn in as Indiana's governor in January 1988?
Evan Bayh
lompe said...
Have you guys seen the zogby interactive polls?
I know it's not the most credible poll...
Some examples of strange numbers:
NC: Obama 47, McCain 38
SC: Obama 42, McCain 41
MI: Obama 47, McCain 33, Barr 6
AR: Obama 41, McCain 39, Barr 4
NM: Obama 49, McCain 33, Barr 9
TX: Obama 42, McCain 39, Barr 6
and maybe the strangest of all:
AZ: Obama 42, McCain 39, Barr 7
They are giving Obama better numbers in most states. Florida and NH are exceptions:
http://www.zogby.com/50state
These numbers are significantly off what I've seen onevery other polling site? What gives?
Since you are too slow, I looked it up:
IC 3-10-8-1
Holding special elections
Sec. 1. A special election shall be held in the following cases:
. . . . (2) Whenever a vacancy occurs in the office of United States Senator, as provided in IC 3-13-3-1.
(3) Whenever a vacancy occurs in the office of United States Representative unless the vacancy occurs less than thirty (30) days before a general election.
The special election cannot be called before the vacancy occurs, which would be January 20, 2009, when Bayh would resign to take the oath of office as Vice President.
There might be some pressure for him to resign before the election because it would cost the taxpayers a lot of money to hold a special election. Refusing to resign his seat in order to have a fall-back position in case Obama lost is not unprecedented however. Senator Lloyd Bentsen actuall was on the Texas ballot for Senator AND Vice President.
He was taking no chances on Dukakis winning the Presidency, and this was wise, although his being on the Senate ballot in Texas helped torpedo Dukakis' chances in Texas. Voters split their ballot, voting for Bentsen for senator, but for Bush for President.
lompe-
Zogby Interactive is worthless.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/pollster%20ratings
Er, Evan was sworn in during January 1989.
The Zogby map also colors Iowa republican even though their own polling numbers show the state going for Obama.
The Zogby Interactive polls will be included, but per our methodology will get very low reliablity scores. This kind of circumstance is precisely why we set up a pollster rating system, etc.
Maybe it's Zogby's clever way of getting you to cough up the $99.99 for the full data, just to see how the hell they came up with figures like these!!
On their polls, Bob Barr scores 9% in Nevada and Oklahoma, 8% in Colorado, Minnesota and Iowa and 7% in Ohio, Tennessee and Indiana. He has 8% in Georgia, which might be possible and a whopping 10% in New Hampshire. Does ANYONE think this is possible, even vaguely?
I wouldn't assume that just because Dan Quayle resigned early, when there was a governor of the same party and no incentive to stick around longer, means that Bayh can't wait until after Jan 10th if the governor has changed to a Democrat.
It is unlikely that Bayh could reasonably consider resigning prior to the November election, when the results of the presidential campaign and gubernatorial campaign are both unknown, so a special election is pretty much unavoidable. In fact he'd have to resign pretty much now to be properly replaced in the general election, and it may already be too late as a practical matter, and yet neither party has selected their Veeps.
If you read the statutes cited above you would see that the Governor would get to appoint a Senator ONLY when a vacancy occurs by reason of resignation. That means unless Bayh were running in THIS election he could hold his seat and run for VP. The seat would only be vacant when he took the oath of office on January 20th, not before.
That means a special election. The newly elected governor (probably the Republican incumbent) would fill that spot sometime after January 20th and that person (Republican) would serve until the special election, just like Nate said.
Ruairi:
On their polls, Bob Barr scores 9% in Nevada and Oklahoma, 8% in Colorado, Minnesota and Iowa and 7% in Ohio, Tennessee and Indiana. He has 8% in Georgia, which might be possible and a whopping 10% in New Hampshire. Does ANYONE think this is possible, even vaguely?
Well, Maine and New Hampshire were Ross Perot's best states, so it doesn't seem that northern New England is averse to third-party candidates.
Unlikely in this election, though.
The optics would obviously favour Bayh resigning before the election.
Remember that Joe Lieberman actually ran Senate re-election in 2000 at the same time as he was running on Gore's ticket, and was rightfully criticized for it. One of the many slimy things Lieberman has done.
Yes, the Democrats MIGHT lose a Senate seat, but I'm prepared to take that risk. Bayh and Schweitzer are the two strongest VP picks, in my opinion. Either of them would help the ticket tremendously.
Bayh's seat does not expire until 2010. Same year as Obama's seat in Illinios.
Lets say the Obama-Bayh ticket has coattails in Indiana Governors Race causing Daniels to lose to JLThompson.
Illinios has a Democratic Governor so Obama can resign after the US Congress certifies the Electoral College vote results.
Bayh is going to resign right after JLT is inaugurated.
When Dan Quayle resigned in 1988- Dan Coats was appointed to that seat and faced a special election November 1990.
Because Bayh and Obama's seat expires in 2010- Their is not going to be a special election in 2010.
If Mitch Daniels wins re-election in 2008- He appoints Mike Pence or Steve Buyer to Bayh's seat. Democrats recruit Tim Roemer to challenge Pence or Buyer.
Who wins in a matchup between Roemer vs Pence or Roemer vs Buyer.
Who wins in a P
The optics would obviously favour Bayh resigning before the election.
Remember that Joe Lieberman actually ran Senate re-election in 2000 at the same time as he was running on Gore's ticket, and was rightfully criticized for it."
OTOH, no one has yet complained about the fact that neither Obama nor McCain has resigned their Senate seats.
ajb:
That's true...I actually realized that right after I submitted that comment.
I suppose it's more important for a candidate or VP-candidate to resign if either of them are up for Senate re-election in the same year as the presidential election.
However, for the purposes of ensuring that Indiana's second Senate seat remains Democratic, a Bayh resignation before the election would be better.
But either way, I'm prepared to take the risk of losing a Dem Senate seat to get Bayh on the ticket.
sg:
It's actually strange that nobody has raised the question of why neither candidate has stepped down from the Senate. I guess that neither can make an issue out of it with the other, but I'm surprised the media haven't raised it with both of them.
We are going to pick up seats in the US Senate in 2008.
VA,NM,NH,CO,and AK are givens.
OR,MN,and ME are tossups. can win those states because of Obama's coattails.
MS-B and NC depends on how big the wave is.
If we pick up 8 seats in 2008. We will have 57 Democrats 1 Sanders 1 Lieberman 41 Republicans. If Bayh gets replaced by Republican. It becomes a 56 Democrat 1 Sanders 1 Lieberman and 42 Republicans.
Democrats need to gain 3 seats in 2010 to get the 60 seats and tell Holy Joe to Go Cheney Himself.
Which Republican or open seats are due for election in 2010?
Zogby and Zogby Interactive show up as two different things on the Pollster list. Can somebody explain the difference?
Also, which one was this. It appears to be listed as Zogby International.
NOT TWO SENATORS!
Richardson or Sebelius or ?????
Bayh is not going to be tapped for the veep slot. It may sound overly simplistic, but he just looks too young. Obama needs a running mate with a little gray hair to balance the ticket out.
Let's say for the sake of argument it does happen. Daniels is in very good shape to win re-election as his opponent is kind of weak and survived a divisive primary, and the governor has a huge cash advantage.
I think Daniels would end up tapping Rep. Steve Buyer of the Fourth District. Mike Pence would also want it, I am sure, but he is much more out-spoken. Buyer is extremely conservative, but probably a better general election candidate. The best the Democrats could hope for would be to coax Brad Ellsworth of the Eighth District to run in 2010. Coming from a law-and-order background and a red district would make him very strong. That would be a big battle, with I think Ellsworth taking in the end.
SG.
In 2010.
We can force McCain-AZ into retirement- Janet Napolitano.
We can defeat Martinez-FL - Alex Sink.
We can get Roemer-IN to challenge who ever Daniels appoints to replace Bayh.
We can hope Grassley-IA retires and gets replaced by Tom Vilsack.
We can replace Brownback-KS with Kathleen Sebelius.
We can force Bunning-KY into retirement- Ben Chandler.
We can replace Diaper Vitter-LA with Mitch Landrieu.
We can force Kit Bond-MO into retirement with one of the Carnahan siblings.
We can replace Judd Gregg-NH with John Lynch-NH.
We can replace Richard Burr-NC with Richard Moore-
We can force George Voinovich-OH into retirement- Tim Ryan,Lee Fisher,Richard Cordray,Jennifer Brunner.
We can replace Coburn-OK with Brad Henry.
We can force Specter-PA into retiremnet- be replaced by Allyson Schwartz.
We can replace Thune-SD with Stephanie Herseth Sandlin-SD.
My understanding is that Daniels is very unpopular in Indiana thanks to converting the state to daylight savings time and selling off the Indiana toll road to foreign investors. Of the governors races up this year, Cook Political has the race as toss-up, along with Missouri and Washington. It should be noted that unless they find Daniels in bed with a live boy or a dead girl, or something on that scale, they won't move the race off of toss-up.
Who replaces Ellsworth- if he runs for the US Senate. Ellsworth can wait in 2012 to replace Lugar.
nkpolitics:
Thanks for the list, although some of those are pie-in-the-sky. I mean...Oklahoma? Kentucky? not a chance.
I agree that if Spector bows out in 2010 (as he should, unless he wants to be another farcical Thurmond or Byrd-type relic), the Democratic nominee would be a shoo-in to win in Pennsylvania.
I agree about Arizona as well - could definitely see that relatively progressive state wanting to balance out Jon Kyl with a Democratic Senator should McCain decide to retire.
@nkpolitics:
What are you smoking? Looking at the 2008 senate races, no way is Begich a "given" in AK. He may indeed win, but look at the figures on this site. And OR, ME & MN are not tossups - they all lean Republican. Again, they are not out of reach, but you seem to be looking at the world through blue tinted lenses.
It's one thing to dream, another to treat those dreams as though they are already real.
Judas Priest
Go Cheney your self
Have you heard a concept of Presidential coattails.
Oregon,Maine,and Minnesota are strong blue states- Obama friendly states at the presidential level. The reason why OR,ME,and MN are in the Lean republican collumn is because Smith-OR,Collins-ME,and Coleman-MN have an incumbency advantage. Polls show these incumbents polling below 50%
If I saw the world entirely Blue. I would have said we win MS-B,NC,KY,KS,ID,NE etc.
SG- Bunning is at the age of retirement or is vulnerable in 2010- looking at his previous election
In 1998 he narrowly beat Scotty Beasler in the open seat to replace Wendall Ford.
In 2004 he narrowly beat now LG Dan Mongiordo despite Bush carrying KY in 2004 by a 20 percent margin.
Bunning-KY is a weak incumbent. He has a foot in the mouth diesease.
In PA- Specter is in his 80 has cancer- he is a retiree.
I don't understand how all you people think that all these seats are going to turn blue. NM, CO, VA, and NH are going to be Democratic gains. Don't be so sure about MN and OR. Sens. Smith and Coleman have increased their polling numbers and in MN, Franken hasn't led in a poll in many months. In ME, Allen has never, to my knowledge, led Collins. She is a firm centrist and will win despite Obama coattails
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/07/08/inew-york-timesi-on-mccai_n_111529.html
This is a several-year-old impression, but I did get the feeling that Zogby's sample sets had some strange elements in their initial make up. I have no idea if those sets are at all in use any more. Probably not. (Though over-representation of libertarians would mesh with my impressions...)
Man, not a single poll from which to make a "today's polls" update in two days, you'd think polling would increase as time went on.
Oh, wow, I misread the times/dates. I should've said three days. This better mean they're all polling the more difficult states to poll which have been sorely overlooked in the past couple months.
" Judas Priest
Go Cheney your self
Have you heard a concept of Presidential coattails.
Oregon,Maine,and Minnesota are strong blue states- Obama friendly states at the presidential level. The reason why OR,ME,and MN are in the Lean republican collumn is because Smith-OR,Collins-ME,and Coleman-MN have an incumbency advantage. Polls show these incumbents polling below 50%
If I saw the world entirely Blue. I would have said we win MS-B,NC,KY,KS,ID,NE etc.
"
Judas is completely right.
But besides that, even you admit that these states are not complete Tossups:
"Lean republican collumn is because Smith-OR,Collins-ME,and Coleman-MN have an incumbency advantage."
They will have that advantage in the election, too.
In all three states the Republican leads by 6-7 points- well within the Obama unity bounce, where you could exspect coattails. And normally Democrats are a lot better on state level then on presidential level, so I´d rather say that Obama GETS coattails in some states than that he brings coattails (maybe MS; black turnout could break the tie here)...
Dems CAN win OR, MN, ME- but those currently lean Republican, they are not Toss-Ups. And to me it looks that guys like the Oregon senator do a good campaining job (tying himself to Obama- lol).
As well AK IS a Toss-Up- but it is a Toss-Up since two months, without momentum in any direction.
I think this race depends completely on how the curruption scandal goes on and if it makes news in the weeks, better days, before the election. Begich can´t win without a scandal, but luckily for Stevens has one.
I agree with you about CO, NH, NM, VA (should be Dem) and NC (is in reach, but a long-shot).
Interestingly, I see MS-B more optimistic than you.
Musgrove is popular, MS seems to lean Democratic this year (Childers), and he brings in what Obama can´t: Parts of the white vote- together with the én bloc black vote of Mississippi.
I'm from Indiana. Gov. Mitch is unpopular but the Democrat candidate, a former US Congresswoman, may have a little trouble beating him. Hopefully Mitch will be packing his bags after the November election!!
Rasmus
The Senate Races in OR,ME,and MN remind me of the 2006 US House Races in IA-2(Jim Leach seat). Remember former Congressman Jim Leach. Jim Leach was a popular Liberal Republican Congressman from Iowa- He represented a strong Democratic leaning District in Iowa. His opponent Dave Loesback was an unknown college proffesor- polls showed Leach with the advantage but Leach narrowly lost to Loesback.
If the 2008 Election cycle is neutral- We pick up VA,NM,NH,and CO. AK and MS-B are tossups. ME,MN,NC,and OR are lean republican retention. If 2008 Election cycle is a good year for Democrats then we have an excellent chance of picking up ME,MN,NC,or OR.
Nate: "The Zogby Interactive polls will be included, but per our methodology will get very low reliablity scores. This kind of circumstance is precisely why we set up a pollster rating system, etc."
As far as I can see it, Zogby Interactive is maxed out at a weight of about .3, but they still get a weight of .2-.3. Not enough no have much impact, because they did not poll states with no/not much information.
Schul, you quote the law for filling a vacancy other than by resignation. It appears to me this would be a resignation. Can you pull the law on that so we can see it?
The question is when does Bayh resign? Some Senators running for office have resigned prematurely to show their strength (Bob Dole).
Does anyone know of any resignation requirements for the Senate when a different office is won. Is it the day of or day before as many appear to be presuming here? Or is there a more explicit resignation requirement somewhere in the vast Matrix like Code that is our Federal Rules and Regulations.
You guys that are saying Bayh should resign if selected as a VP put your money where your mouth is. The suggestion that Bayh should resign his seat if selected as a VP candidate flies in the face of your candidate Obama not resigning his seat even though he has been selected the Presidential candidate.
Maybe both should resign now, the Republicans could use a majority between now and the next senate swearing in.
Obviously neither Obama nor Bayh are going to resign just because they are running.
This is vastly different from Lieberman or Bentsen who decided to run for reelection and split their loyalties. Holding your seat is not an issue, your constituents expect you to do this.
nkpolitics,
we ARE currently in a phase of the election cycle that favors Democrats- Obama leads by roughly 4.5 points in the PV.
Still- ME, OR, NC and MN are leaning Republican.
ME could come in play if Allen continues surging. But Coleman is EXPANDING his lead during Obamas unity bounce.
Dole moved the race from a Toss-Up in Mid-March to low Double-Digit leads. And in OR we have just three polls, but they show the GOP lead increasing, too.
I´m pretty sure that MN, OR, NC will go Republican, ME could be in play, depends on how much room Allen has to surge ahead after gaining about 10-15 points on collins and still being 5-10 points ahead.
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As the one who first asked this question over at Swing State and Guru I love the question and I love and the answers.
People asking why candidates don't resign their current seats to run for higher office I assume are visiting from foreign countries or AZ (where its required for state office) since elected officials have been running for higher office since the invention of higher office and have almost never resigned to do so. Bob Dole did but he was desperate for a jolt anyway. It makes as much sense as any of us quitting our current jobs to look for a new one.
The last independent poll of the IN Governor's race had Daniels up 50-45 over Jill Long Thompson. A slight lean for the incumbent but no more than that.
The factors that could help JLT in IN are 1) Obama's effort there. He's spending money and organizing and McCain is not matching him and instead of Obama being down by 20 like most democrats, he's down by 2. 2) Bayh on the ticket should certainly work in JLT's favor. Only a marginal effect I'm sure, but should help.
And Roemer seems like a fantastic pick to fill in until 2010.
Which brings me to the other point that seems to need answering in all these "who gets appointed to fill X's seat until the special."
I believe based on past evidence, that the special election is the next statewide election 2 years after the appointment for US Senators from every state - Unlike houseseats which are scheduled at all kinds of odd times.
On the resignation timing of a Senator elected as VP, I would expect that he'd have to resign before the Congress certifies the electoral vote (which is very early January). Otherwise, Congress would be approving an incompatibility: an executive official who is also a legislator. As long as he is serving as a legislator, isn't a politician ineligible to be certified as an executive?
On the other hand, in 2009 under this scenario the party controlling the counting of the electoral votes would be Bayh's party, so maybe there is room for creative rendering.
And then there is the possibility that none of this applies now that Cheney has made the Vice Presidency its own branch of government.
mss and higlytown: All my insticts point towards Bayh not having to resign until the moment before he takes his oath. Otherwise, how would Presidential succession work? It's not like we'd make the Speaker of the House go on a two week sebaticle before they could assume the Presidency in a time of emergency. I have to agree with what everyone else is saying here. Bayh resigns right before if/when he takes the oath. Then, the current Indiana Governor, who wins this November, picks a successor until a special election is held two years from now.
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