It's only fair.
Nothing terribly proprietary here, but I've rehashed the latest numbers from Intrade and then bundled the Republican VP hopefuls into five groups:
Traditional. A well-known Senator or Governor in the rough mainstream of his party. These are the sorts of people who are usually selected to be VPs.
Base Reach. A candidate whose selection would explicitly appeal to the Christian conservative base (but who might have other wonderful attributes).
Center Reach. A candidate whose selection would explicitly appeal to political center (but who might have other wonderful attributes).
Insider. A government insider who is associated with a particular competency or issue, but who may not be particularly well-known. Often overlaps heavily with "Base Reach".
Outsider. Someone from outside the political sector, such as a CEO. Often overlaps heavily with "Center Reach".Romney 3-1 TraditionalI would short: Crist, Bloomberg, Engler, and maybe Sarah Palin by a smidge. I think Palin is a very intriguing politician and deserves most of the coverage that is wasted on Bobby Jindal as the GOP's up-and-comer, but I think the chemistry of McCain being paired with a very young (and young-looking), kind of kooky female governor would be very weird. Mike Bloomberg is not really a Republican. Nobody likes John Engler. With Crist, there are literally as many Google hits where his name appears with the word 'gay' as where it appears without it. That offers no proof, of course, about what his sexuality actually is, but if it's the first association that most of the country makes about him, it is liable to be too much of a distraction.
Pawlenty 6-1 Traditional
Palin 6-1 Traditional
Huckabee 7-1 Base Reach
Crist 11-1 Traditional
Portman 12-1 Insider
Fiorina 13-1 Outsider
Thune 13-1 Base Reach
Cantor 15-1 Insider
Sanford 15-1 Traditional
Ridge 20-1 Center Reach
Jindal 20-1 Base Reach
Perdue 20-1 Traditional
Lieberman 30-1 Center Reach
Snowe 30-1 Center Reach
Bloomberg 50-1 Center Reach
Graham 50-1 Traditional
Collins 50-1 Center Reach
Kasich 50-1 Insider
Rice 50-1 Insider
Cox 60-1 Insider
Rell 60-1 Center Reach
Whitman 60-1 Outsider
Keating 70-1 Traditional
Huntsman 80-1 Base Reach
Hutchinson 100-1 Traditional
Engler 100-1 Traditional
Fred Smith 100-1 Outsider
I would long: Pawlenty, Portman, Thune. Thune is sort of at that bridge between "Base Reach" and "Traditional" where he can appeal to the base without looking like a total pander. Palwenty because the McCain people seem to think they can win Minnesota. And Portman because he gets both the Ohio and the experience/competence checkboxes, although the McCain camp may understate the risks of associating themselves with any former Bush cabinet official.
7.12.2008
Republican VP Speculation Thread
@ 8:16 PM
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95 comments
""Palwenty because the McCain people seem to think they can win Minnesota.""
To hear some people talk, Pawlenty brings not only Minnesota, but Wisconsin, Iowa, and perhaps Michigan.
I doubt he even brings Minnesota, and if he does, it's only because Minnesotans want him out of St. Paul.
You would not short Romney? At 3-1 I would short Romney. He came in second in the GOP pop. vote and has lots of friends, so he's being publicly paraded as the VP front-runner by some of McCain's people. I don't see him being the pick, honestly.
Nate--surprised you didn't rate John Thune a little higher.
I agree with the posters that Pawlenty doesn't bring very much to the table. Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin are out of reach for McCain, so Pawlenty won't be picked for electoral vote reasons, even though the convention is in St Paul. Pawlenty is a safe pick.
McCain should pick Pawlenty if he really can't stand Romney. But, I think John Thune or even the governor of Utah, Huntsman, might be a stronger choice than Pawlenty.
Conventional wisdom from Roger Simon at Politico--both Obama and McCain will pick safe picks. Both will pick the two Tims--Tim Pawlenty for McCain and Tim Kaine for Obama. I tend to agree.
I'd say Crist is the most viable by far. As a Democrat, I certainly hope he isn't picked...
Romney isn't going to endear McCain with the Religious Right, though he would help on the economic issues. But McCain knows he can't afford to piss off the religious right more than he already has, and has continued to court them. Not that Huckabee has a real chance...He doesn't BRING much of anything to the ticket.
MN going Republican this year with Pawlenty? Good luck with that. I think we've been through this one.
Jindal or Palin I can't really see...Just odd pairings.
Lieberman would be an interesting choice, and certainly help with independent voters...But can you think of anyone to better piss off the Religious Right and far-right in general? I can't see this happening.
The rest I don't know well enough.
Somehow I believe Huckabee would be the strongest pick for McCain. He could defend many of the states Obama goes for, Virginia, Iowa, Missouri. Yet, it seems that with each day Romney becomes more likely. Pawlenty is on his way down now, Thune a not-so-dark-anymore horse.
It is refreshing to see women on the republican list, too. But McCain 2008 might be the wrong candidate to go for it.
Rhode Island X wrote: "Lieberman would be an interesting choice, and certainly help with independent voters...But can you think of anyone to better piss off the Religious Right and far-right in general? I can't see this happening."
I'd argue that since the Neocon element is still wielding influence in the party, and since Lieberman is in their camp on foreign policy, he'd be embraced by the party as a whole.
Lieberman would also bring an appearance of moderation to reassure center-leaning Republicans and right-leaning independents, while still reassuring the hawks that ass would still be kicked (so to speak).
The main negatives I've heard regarding Lieberman are that he is socially liberal-leaning, and that he too is no spring chicken. I'd put more weight on the former negative being a problem for Republican voters, but that's just me.
[pakaal]
This might be the first presidential race where both candidates take a VP they don't want too. If McCain is smart he will pick Romney, if Obama is smart he will take Clinton.
If that scenario happens, lets get ready to rumble, we'd have quite a final 3 months. Just buy a bag of popcorn sit down and watch the drama unfold every night on CNN. The RNC wouldn't know who to attack first.
My strong impression throughout the primaries was that McCain just passionately hates Romney's guts. Watching some of the debates, the contempt was not hidden at all.
To me Romney's entire constituency consists of the Republican establishment, specifically the Club for Growth crowd, including Hannity, Limbaugh and the National Review. I suppose McCain might feel such a need to appease them that he'll grit his teeth and take Romney on, but other than peace on that front I don't see what the pick gets McCain. The Republican electorate saw him as a phony and the general electorate will do the same.
I'd short all of the top seven. Romney hurts you with the flip-flop narrative (Huntsman would be a much better choice to do the same thing), Pawlenty gets you nothing, Palin (and Jindal) are too young, Huckabee is crazy (Thune would be a much better choice to do the same thing), Crist will be killed by those rumors, Portman feeds into the Bush's third term narrative, and Fiorina feeds into the "Republicans are in bed with big business" narrative.
Besides Huntsman (Thune is fairly priced), I'd long Mark Sanford. He's a relatively young Governor who feeds into McCain's anti-pork barrel narrative. Sanford brought live pigs into the South Carolina House chamber as a protest against pork barrel spending.
Would Tom Ridge be the worst pick on that list? Maybe I'm wrong but I thought his brief stay at Homeland Security left him firmly ensconced in the second tier of bungling Bush cronies (behind Rumsfeld, Tenet, and "Brownie, you're doing a heck of a job")... not the message McCain should be trying to send at all.
Anon at :03: Lieberman leans left on most issues...It'd further anger right-wingers who think McCain is far too moderate already. If he continues to flop with the base, they won't just withhold donations, but they may very well sit at home. This applies to the religious right especially. Religious people don't handle "the lesser evil" well--they have tendencies towards more absolute views, and would rather wash their hands of the matter.
Speaking of which, Lieberman is Jewish. That's "even worse" than Romney being a Mormon. A lot of people in the religious right will not get over that. Even if the religious right are "strong supporters of Israel," that's only because it's the key to the second coming, at which time the Jews who don't convert to Christianity will all be damned to hell. (No, not all of the religious right think that way, but ENOUGH certainly do to expand a possibly fatal McCain disadvantage.)
""Both will pick the two Tims--Tim Pawlenty for McCain and Tim Kaine for Obama. I tend to agree.""
Anything to make the VP debate more confusing...
I sincerely doubt Thune gets it, though I was wrong about Edwards in 2004. There's a distinct lack of grace in choosing a two senator ticket, especially when both senators are legislative backbenchers who can't really point to much in the way of legislation they led into existence. So much for leadership experience! It'd be one thing if it was the majority/minority leader, but Thune certainly doesn't fit that bill. He's also incredibly inexperienced, and I doubt the McCain camp wants to bring back the Quayle critiques.
As for the rest. Well. Jindal is nice, but he's far too young and inexperienced. My intuition says that McCain knows it too. He just also knew that if he pretended to focus on Jindal he'd pick up some primo media coverage. I don't see where Palin comes into play, though. Like Schweitzer is rebuilding the Montana Democrat brand, she's rebuilding the Alaska Republican brand. And it's sorely in need of it; it has been absolutely decimated by Young, Stevens, and Murkowski. If she was pulled out before she finished, Alaska could quickly become a purely Democratic state. It's the same reason Obama won't choose Napolitano. While McCain has a somewhat incompetent campaign team, I don't think they're quite that incompetent.
The way I see it, Romney is by far the most likely choice. People don't seem to get that Romney DOES actually have some pull in Michigan; even after the media had written him off as a dead candidate (mainly by forgetting his Michigan roots and neglecting to mention the fact that he won Wyoming, and still had the most delegates at every leg of the game in the early process), he surged back into contention in the Michigan primary. He's not a poor campaigner (as a Republican who won in MA, he couldn't be), he's surprisingly deft at dodging gaffes, he's good at debates, and he's a known brand. Even though conventional wisdom says he's not a pick because McCain "hates" him, I remember a wealth of stories a while back talking about McCain warming up to Romney when they had that weekend at the ranch. I doubt that McCain's personal feelings are all that negative on Romney anymore, and as thus, he's a far more viable choice than some people give him credit for.
Anyway. Nice to see some variety around here. I love this site (it is, in fact, my homepage!), but the commenting community oftentimes seems to trend towards being a bit of an echo chamber for progressives. Sort of a drag.
Portman. I was Portman when Portman wasn't cool. You're going to have to search hard to find a negative. He's young but not too young (53 in December); Congress for several terms, then stints at OMB and USTR. Articulate, intelligent, good-looking, well-respected by his former peers on both sides of the aisle. Ohio, for heaven's sake. Walked away from the Bush White House without being chased out or accused of impropriety or incompetence. He's Quayle with a brain; he's the Anglo Richardson. If McCain doesn't pick Portman, he's making a mistake.
If McCain doesn't pick Romney he's an idiot. I think Romney is a snake oil salesman willing to change his entire ideology to get elected. (Any changes Obama has made pales in comparison)
But Romney was a governor, has economic cred, the Right wingers like him and he loves to attack. He's the best pick by far even if McCain hates him.
All VPs should be ready to be president, but that is especially true for McCain's VP. Those who are concerned about his age are going to be looking for someone qualified to be president today.
For that reason, I would short the green (e.g. Palin, Jindal) and the outsiders.
There seems to be a very obvious reason why Thune would never be McCain's pick. They couldn't stand next to each other without McCain seeming freakishly old and short. It would make a really odd pairing.
I want to see Palin end up in high places because she graduated from my alma mater, the University of Idaho (go Vandals). Thus, I'd prefer McCain not kneecap her by picking her now. A Palin/Jindal/Pawlenty/Smith (pick any two) Young Republicans ticket in 2012 or 2016 could be a force to reckon with.
I don't think McCain's going to make this decision for a little while. I think it will depend mainly on what he thinks is his weakest ground and who needs bolstering. If he needs enthusiasm and fundraising from traditional Republicans, (which I must say I don't think will actually be the case, Obama has proven to be a galvanizing figure for his opponents)--> Romney. If things are going well, he looks ahead and he can keep business as usual (which I also think is unlikely), we can say oh Pawlenty, for example-- someone who's just safe and logical.
If he needs a centrist appeal and a game changer I think he might honestly tap Lieberman. I know it's a long shot, and I'm not actually a gambilng man, but hear me out. He could use Lieberman to fuzzy all of his domestic policies towards a more Democratic stance, which is more popular in this election cycle, while keeping his warhawk stances that he's obviously passionate about. The people in the center might forgive such a flipflop as long as they liked his policies more and feel more comfortable with him and his message than Obama. The people on the right would have the same lesser-of-two-evils situation they have now.
If he's sort of stagnant and slightly behind, the way he's been for about a month now, I think another likely set of options is a more slight and superficial game changer-- Jindal or Kay Bailey Hutchinson. (Not Fiorina, that is way way overrated in those rankings. She has no political experience and has not been a well behaved surrogate recently at all.) It wouldn't say much philosophically, but it would symbolically help people think they're voting for McCain's version of "change." Now I don't think any of McCain's options to choose a woman or minority are all that logical or fitting, but I think the media buzz and predicted affect on the race is something McCain could probably use, if he's still basically in a rut by the convention. I actually think the any woman idea could work so that either way people in the middle would be "making history." That seems like a compelling reason to vote..
Palin is intriguing, but she supported state benefits for same-sex couples and believes in global warming, will that torpedo her?
Nate, who is Graham? That isn't former Texas Senator Phil Gramm, is it?
Also, how do you rate Whitman (I'm guessing that's Christy Whitman) an outsider, when she's a former Governor of New Jersey and EPA Administrator?
I also think she would be a terrible pick, because as EPA Administrator, she lied about the air around the World Trade Center being safe to breathe, and thus no longer exemplifies moderate, environmentally-conscious Republicanism, but instead, failed and arguably criminal or at least deplorably neglectful policies of the G.W. Bush Administration.
I'd sure hate to be the staffer who gets the short straw and has to tell McCain that he has to pick Romney. That volcano temper of his might just blow him out of the room.
I'm not sure that McCain still hates Romney, but he sure had contempt for him during the campaign. That was just some bad blood, much worse than Obama/Clinton.
You see Obama and Clinton making nice right now, but have you seen Romney out campaigning for McCain? No, you have not and there's a good reason why not.
Romney can watch McCain sink like a stone and then start the "I-Told-You-So Romney 2012 Tour" right after the election.
As for Lieberman, even Lieberman knows he's not getting picked. You don't pick a guy who ran for VP as a Democrat, no matter how much he loves the war. Period. He's a useful attack dog, and will get a cabinet post in a McCain administration if there is one, but every single Republican Pol. in the land would be outraged "what!? was there not one single Republican that McCain could have picked? He had to go outside the party and chose an "independent-Democrat?"!"
Graham is Lindsay Graham, and Whitman is Meg Whitman, CEO of eBay.
This certainly is, by far the mots diverse Republican VP long list ever. You've got:
The Mormom
The Mr. no sex
The major hot babe
The highly religious kook with charm
The closet case
The Indian
The semi-Republican Jew
The slow talking female Senator
The "what party is he in billionaire"
And that's just those I have a little knowledge of.
As a strong Obama supporter, I am glad that everybody on Nates McCain long list, above, has at least one negative. Not that Obama's choice are perfect :)
Interesting that most posters think Romney is the logical choice for McCain. I agree. Question is how logical McCain is. I liked the poster who said they wouldn't like to be the staffer who had to face McCain temper when the staff sat McCain down and told him he had to pick Romney.
If not Romney, then who? My republican friends say "Romney doesn't poll well." Don't know if this is true.
But, if not Romney, I say Tim Pawlenty, John Thune (height disadvantage notwithstanding) or Utah's Huntsman, a billionaire, who might under the campaign law be allowed to kick in personal funds.
Portman is from Ohio, yes. But he doesn't do much, if anything, to deliver the state. He was a Congressman, not a statewide office holder, and his name recognition doesn't go much beyond Cincinnati, which McCain will carry easily in any event.
Contrast with Strickland, who could provide a real benefit for Obama in the Buckeye state.
Palin: Doesn't she have a 3-month-old baby with special needs? Is she really interested in this campaign, this year?
Yes, Palin does have a baby with special needs. There's no way she can be part of a presidential campaign at this point.
Early on, I thought the nomination was Romney's to lose. I thought he hugely misplayed it by trying to be everybody's bestest Republican, rather than just playing to his strengths as a blue-state governor who had to work across the aisle, and a successful businessman -- a turn-around specialist for troubled corporations, no less; with overwhelming majorities saying the country is on the wrong track, that should have been his central brand message.
Now he's blown it, and everyone sees him as a phony. We like being pandered to, but we don't like having our intelligence insulted in the process.
For VP, my hunch is either Huckabee or Lieberman. I think McCain will pick someone that he genuinely likes.
Huckabee would allow McCain to personally tack hard to the center, trusting his veep to bring home the religious base. The theory here is that swing voters only pay attention to the top of the ticket and won't be turned off, whereas base voters do care about veep, and could thereby be mollified.
Lieberman is the choice if McCain thinks (recognizes?) that he's holding the losing hand if the game is played by traditional rules. In a "change" year, what could be more original than a split ticket? It would be a big gamble -- Lieberman is disliked by the right and loathed by the left -- but if he feels that he needs to stake it all on winning the center, that might be his best chance to fundamentally change the rules of the game.
I think it will be Pawlenty based on some misguided idea that MN will vote Republican. As an Obama supporter, this would work well for me.
I think Romney may help with the West, and would reassure conservatives.
If the McCain campaign was smart, it should try to shake things up with someone like Palin. She seems to have it all, attractive, competent, and squeaky clean ethically.
If the McCain campaign has any sense of strategy (which at times seems an open question), they'll have different VP's picked depending on who Obama takes. Obama can be made to pick first, because McCain can announce his choice during the weekend between the conventions (or even during the Democratic convention) if he has to.
So, for example, if Obama picks a man, McCain can come back with a woman. That would throw a bit of a wrench in the works. If Obama goes safe, maybe McCain goes a little daring (but not so daring he looks desperate). If Obama doesn't pick a foreign policy heavy, then McCain picks someone perceived as strong on the economy, so that he has "balanced" expertise on his ticket. And so on.
But his campaign has to decide these contingencies early, otherwise pulling it off on short notice would be chaotic. And it must be kept from leaking, or he'll really tick a lot of people off!
Why not Fred Thompson- serious Base Reach, plus a real expert at the VP's first job- not making mistakes. Will he get McCain votes? No- but neither will anyone else.
There's only one knock-it-outta-the-park choice for McCain. Olympia Snowe.
Sorry, the "base" is not going anywhere. They've been conditioned into robot voting. And, they sure as hell are not sitting out when the alternative is Obama. Same would have been true with Sen. Clinton. Now, if the Dems had Biden or Bayh, or Edwards running, McCain would run the risk of lots of the right-right-wingers staying home. Not the case this year. Run the whispering campaigns.
Snowe would, of couse, be replaced by a Dem Senator, so that is a downside if McCain is facing a Senate so near veto-proof.
There is also the game of "VP chicken" going on. Who will announce first?
If Obama names Sebelius, out of the blue, McCain would look to be playing copycat panderer if he picked an "interesting" candidate. But, a boring white guy would look, well, painfully boring.
Meanwhile, if McCain named Snowe first, suddenly and soon, Obama would look to be a panderer if he went with Sebelius (and he knows how impossible Clinton would be).
Oh, Lindsay Graham. My guess is that he would be a good pick, because although he's a pretty conservative Republican (which may satisfy most conservative Republican voters), he does break with the party at times and act bipartisanly. I think his ideology and political behavior in the Senate are pretty similar to McCain's, and could reinforce an image of McCain as a mainstream but thinking and sometimes maverick Republican.
FYI, the Intrade fee structure makes anyone under 2-3% (30-1) effectively untradable due to suppressed volume/profits.
With that said, if I were betting the GOP side, I would long Romney/Pawlenty/Crist and expect one of the three to be picked.
However, the Dem side is far more interesting, due solely to the presence of free money like Hillary Clinton.
+Speaking of which, Lieberman is Jewish. That's "even worse" than Romney being a Mormon. A lot of people in the religious right will not get over that.+
The Religious Right is much fonder of Orthodox Judaism than Mormonism, IMHO.
Romney, like Richardson, would have been a much more compelling VP choice if he hadn't proved his mettle by running for prez. He'll hurt in every single state outside of Michigan.
Eric Cantor is of the same faith as Lieberman, so draw your own conclusions about how that may affect his viability.
"Contrast with Strickland, who could provide a real benefit for Obama in the Buckeye state."
Not to mention Strickland is from a normally fairly Republican part of Ohio, the southeastern Appalachian part, so he would help in a specific region, whereas Portman doesn't help outside a region where the GOP is already traditionally strong (even Ken Blackwell won Hamilton County.)
I think Romney would be the perfect fit. You have a moderate in McCain that the Conservative Base is not the most fond of, but will still vote for him. And then if you bring Romney on, you perhaps could get the base a little bit more supportive of the ticket and boost the party morale. You have a very strong national security aspect covered in McCain coupled with a strong economic aspect in Romney
I also think Romney helps in Michigan-Nevada-Colorado. The Mormons out west and his success in Michigan. Many on the left attack me because they don't think he'll help McCain in Michigan, but in a state that has voted for the D for 4 elections in a row, only to see their economy suffer and only continue to get worse, a fiscal conservative may be what some of those undecided voters want over Obama. Remember Michigan's tax raising Governor is not liked there, which could hurt Obama.
Personally I feel McCain has more options than Obama and better options. Obama is really in a tough spot now because you see some of the speculated VP's saying they do not want it.
Still, it's Spring Training. Opening Day is not until the Conventions!
Sigh...
You guys (both Republicans and Democrats) still don't get it. If the Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae saga didn't awake you to it, THE ECONOMY IS THE NUMBER ONE ISSUE THIS YEAR. We're not talking about early 1990's or 2000 recessions that can be addressed with talking points. This baby's about to kick into another gear, with heavy geopolitical implications (umm... Russia and China are the GSE's largest bondholders). There are only two VP candidates that can handle the economic narrative required to reassure the American people: Bloomberg and Romney. Trust me, it'll get so bad that it won't matter if Romney turned out to be Hindu, as long as he can verbally command the economy. It's painfully obvious that neither Obama or McCain are able to do it.
Put it this way, people are starting to understand that the economy is so bad that they could care less if they have health insurance, as long as they still have a job by the fall.
Spectulation?
On the GOP side, I thought Pawlenty back in March but have come full circle to Romney as the obvious pick -- he'd be perfect if he were not a Mormon.
I didn't like Romney till I saw him in a debate and heard about a satirical remark about Mormonism he made in debate prep.
Romney looks like a President, is great on economics, and helps in 3 swing states -- MI, NV, and NH. Who else helps in 3 swing states?
John Thune is my dark horse pick and Fred Thompson wouldn't be too bad if he can look livelier.
I give Romney credit for making the economy the cornerstone of his platform. But, he has some serious problems.
1) First and foremost, he's popularly seen as "phony" or "plastic." This does not help McCain's "straight talk" message.
2) He's been branded as a flip-flopper by other Republicans during the primaries. Again, not helping McCain's "principled but independent maverick" message--and might contaminate McCain with the flip-flopper image the left is trying to stick on him.
3) McCain doesn't seem to like him, to put it mildly. There were some pointed attacks on each other in the primaries. Have fun smoothing that over.
4) On economics, Romney was always a rich businessman. He has a hell of a time relating to the common man. He threw crazy money around, and kept coming up short all over the country against underfunded Huckabee and McCain.
5) His faith doesn't help him with the religious right. The religious right, as I said earlier, see things in absolutes...And they've been pampered lately by Bush. I do believe that they will stay home if they aren't impressed by McCain and his VP. The religious right don't hate or fear Obama, and even if they do in November, these people generally need someone TO vote for, not simply someone to vote against. These evangelicals aren't "up for grabs," and they're not going to make a significant swing to Obama, as cable news is drumming up...But they just might sit at home or make a third-party protest vote.
Interesting to see Rell on the list. I think her selection would pretty much be a complete and utter nose-thumbing at the conservative base. She's been a fairly moderate voice in Connecticut; in anywhere else in the country she'd be a card-carrying liberal. It would enforce the flip-flopping charge on McCain, or impose a flip-flopping charge (ala Bush the first) on Rell. On the other hand she's immensely popular in Connecticut and there could be the possibility she might help him carry what should be a Blue state.
The ghost of Abraham Lincoln as McCain's VP wouldn't turn CT red in this election, or IL for that matter.
In the end, it's the man on the top of the ballot who the voters consider...The running mate can convince a small fringe, but their main effect is either "reaching out" to a certain group--showing that the campaign cares about them--or "reinforcing a theme." VPs don't have much local or regional impact in recent decades, but they can have a measured effect on the election by bringing credibility on certain issues.
I'd be amazed if Palin is chosen... Her odds should be more like 600-1, not 6-1! Palin has served just 18 months as governor, and before that she was mayor of a town of 5,000. Choosing such an utterly inexperienced person to be one heartbeat away from the presidency would seriously undermine McCain's "experience" advantage. Palin may be a possibility in the future, but absolutely not this year.
The big question about Romney -- does he hurt McCain in Virgina and the south? Or do his conservative economic bona fides make up for questions people have about his faith?
The GOP has a pretty weak GOP bench. Ah-nuld is clearly the best the party has to offer but he can't run because he born in Europe.
I'll repeat. It doesn't matter that Romney is Mormon or that Bloomberg is Jewish. It doesn't matter that Romney is a millionaire or that Bloomberg is a billionaire. It doesn't matter that neither Romney or Bloomberg can relate to the "common man" or the "religious right". It doesn't matter that McCain doesn't like Romney; look at how quickly McCain threw his adviser Phil Gramm under the bus when he bungled his interview on the recession.
All that matters is whether the VP candidate is able to speak intelligible about the economy, and not just recite party talking points. People are sick of that. While the McCain quote about not being as strong with the economy as he'd like gets much airtime, it's painfully obvious to anyone paying attention that Obama does not have a grasp of the economy either.
Ironically, the GOP must be feeling good about their possible VP candidates. Now, who will Obama bring to the table?
The economy, as a political issue, is all about relating to the common man. That's the electorate. People don't vote for someone because they think their VP will "restore confidence to the markets." (The economy really doesn't work like that anyway.) People will vote for someone if they think that candidate can relate to their economic woes, while the other guy says the solution is to give the rich more money so they can invest it. Or some other ill-conceived (policical AND economic) strategy.
Obama's campaign must be salivating about using Gramm's recent interview against him. And all those times when McCain said there was no recession, or the recession is going to be light. Even if they're right--that there technically wasn't a recession, or if they really think the recession won't be as bad as recent others--it's never a good idea to play down others' undeserved economic hardship.
GO MCCAIN !
i need more tax cuts
:-)
OBAMA=
MORE/HIGHER TAXES=capital gains, social security taxes, income taxes
OBAMA will make this great country like France(CRAZY HIGH TAXES)
VOTE MCCAIN - WAR IS OVER
ROMNEY FOR VP
:-)
great site but sadly pro Obama
bye for now
i need to pick up my new $150000 Porsche 911 Turbo
MCCAIN-YES WE WILL !
Jindal would be the best pick -articulate and doesn't try to ignore or diminish Obama's appeal - McCain's only chance to trump Obama. The others are saps but picking Loserman would be a laugh.
Jindal is not white
can the republicans take him as a leader
i don't think so
it's very sad that in 2008 we have this
i was really surprised when Rush Limbaugh stated that he liked him
http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/home/daily/site_053008/content/01125121.guest.html
Palin has a special needs child. That in itself is no disqualification. Presumably the job pays well enough for baby sitting.
The interesting thing is why Palin has a special needs child.
Palin went ahead with a pregnancy well into her 40's when the risk of down's syndrom is very high. The deformity is normaly scaned for, and when found an abortion is suggested.
Palin is pro-life. She chose to have the baby.
If Palin is chosen expect abortion to be a top issue with some very nast comments on both sides.
One could point out for instance that if she was lower income and unable to aford help looking after 4 healthy children would be rather harder with a downs syndrom child for number 5.
If McCain actually wants to win, he should pick Hagel if Obama doesn't do it first. That would do some center-reach and base-reach things at the same time and distance him from Bush.
His next best but imperfect bets are Romney and Pawlenty.
If he does a Base Reach or picks a Bush insider, McCain can forget about getting independents and if he has just the Republican base with him in November he'll lose big.
Prolonging the process is probably a good idea, because nearly any pick he could make will have negative consequences either with Independents or The Base. The Republican Party itself consists of two seemingly contradictory wings (the Country Club set and the blue-collar white social conservative side). McCain has a very tough job just satisfying both of them.
Frankly, I am amazed that you do not have Kay Bailey Hutchison... she is the one VP choice that I really fear. Gender is a potential weakness for Obama after a bruising primary against Clinton, and after a few rather sexist comments. It would steal a bit of thunder from the Democrats making history angle. She is a bit iffy on oil and hedges on abortion, but Fiorina is untested in elections (and was pretty much a failure at HP), and Snowe is way too liberal for the base (and would not appeal so much in Missouri, Indiana, and VA). I think the base would swallow Hutchison and help McCain capture the white female vote (where the GOP has made gains under W)
I agree with corn that KBH is a likeable republican and a fair choice. Well done to the anon who noticed that Jindal is 'not white' - that's even more reason to pick him- so that they aren't seen as 'just for whites' party.
Crist says he's getting married.
Anonymous @6:33:
I think die-hard Republicans have become largely color-blind when it comes to national politics. Witness the huge grass-roots support for Condoleeza Rice.
I don't want that overgeneralized: not everyone who would vote for Rice for President would promote a 20-year old intelligent African-American who worked for them. I also believe that there are independents and "soft" members of both major parties who still let racial prejudice steer their vote. But ideologues vote on ideology. Jindal's ethnicity won't cause him trouble with the Republican base.
I agree with SarahLawrenceScott above.
I'm voting for Obama, but the timetable favors McCain, assuming he's smart (a big assumption!) and waits until after Obama announces his pick. If Obama does not pick a woman and then McCain does, suddenly a lot of voters (esp. moderate suburban white women) are up for grabs.
I have been surprised by the degree to which columnists, commentators, and commenters on blogs have dismissed the potential impact of a female VP pick, especially for McCain.
Romney 3-1??? He would be my pick for McCain, but only because I want McCain to lose.
The logic behind Romney is that he is a moderate and that he would help with Michigan. Well, he would help win Utah, but that's about. Massachusetts showed him the door in 2006 when he didn't even bother for a 2nd term. I never understood the logic of a failed 1-term governor as president.
Romney has some talents, but he oozes insincerity. You could tell that none of his GOP rivals even liked him. He campaigned in 1996 and 2002 as a social liberal with strong managerial skills, and then in 2004 decided to become a social conservative, leaving both sides suspecting him of political opportunism.
McCain benefitted greatly in the South because so many Evangelicals could not vote for a Mormon. Otherwise, Romney might have taken the anti-McCain vote. Those voters are barely supporting McCain now. Put a Mormon on the ticket and they will be voting for Bob Barr.
I say put Romney on the ticket and you will see the entire South up for grabs. Evangelicals will never vote for a Mormon President, and putting Romney as VP makes him the likely GOP nominee in 2016.
Any candidate that could bring the codger a state would probably be the presidential candidate. I like Romney for the above reasons. He is so awful and full of contradictions as to make Krustys case even worse. Go Mittster.
AxelDc
It is worse than that. The VP is only a heartbeat away from being President, and who can say if McCains heart will keep beating?
Even if McCain's heart keeps going I am wondering if his head is up to the job. He does seam a trifle confused at times.
Crist gay? He just got married!
Obama has been married for years. He's not gay is he?
Don't throw the gay card, fellas! Trust me, you don't want to go there.
Rumor has it that the balance of the Jesse Jackson Fox tape includes Jackson's speculation about Obama's sexuality. Fox won't play it b/c its too inflamatory and not germane. Yet.
Revalations about Obama's possible bi-sexuality would erode enthusiasm in the black community.
As for Republican Veep: I like Rick Santorum and Carly Fiorina.
Obama looks more and more like he will have to pick Hillary. Mostly cause of money (bad miscalculation on financing). It won't help in the long run. Shows weakness and further brands him as calculating politician.
And then there's Bill . . . !
(had to run to church -- could not proofread -- sorry!)
Pete Kent
"Revalations about Obama's possible bi-sexuality would erode enthusiasm in the black community."
Only if the allegations are very very convincing. Otherwise they will go protective.
95% of black votes will be for Obama. Try something like that and 95% of Blacks will turn up to vote, even if they are so inferm they need to be caried.
To Blame:
I agree with you that 95% of Blacks who vote will vote for Obama, what is up for grabs is their level of enthusiasm. I think it is supposition to suggest that even the inform will be carried to the polls to vote for him. He has had his issues with turnout in the late primaries.
Rick Santorum is an extreme and very strident right-winger who was drubbed when he tried for a 3rd term in 2006 (Wikipedia s.v. "Rick Santorum": "largest margin of defeat for an incumbent Senator since 1980"). If McCain picks him for VP, he's sunk.
Blame, Pete: On what basis do you think that 95% of AA's who vote will vote for Obama? None of the polls show that.
Obama 46%
McCain 46%
Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll for Sunday
-----------------------------
This time in 2004 the Rasmussen Daily Tracking poll had it:
Kerry: 47.7
Bush: 45.2
Kerry by: +2.5
sarahlawrencescott: gallup has obama's AA support 90% or better.
gallup
about 6% are undecided. if half of the undecideds decide to participate and go to obama that's close to 95%. 90%-95%, either way a moot point, obama has massive and stable support in the AA community.
^ plus there will be a massive get out the vote effort targeted at AA's on Obama's side, and little if any on McCain's side-- further tipping things.
Scratch Mark Sanford. He was most inarticulate today on Wolf Blitzer, even had a "senior moment" when he lost his train of thought and admitted he'd lost it.
Oh well, there are plenty of other more competent candidates.
Chances that McCain will do anything to help a former Governor of Massachusetts become the GOP heir apparent: None
Chances that McCain will pick someone with a pro-choice voting record: None
Chances that McCain will pick someone who is half his age: Next to none
Chances that McCain will pick a Southern Governor in a competitive state: Excellent if the polls are close in that state when the time comes
Chances that McCain will pick a Midwestern Governor in what is supposed to be a competitive region: Even better
SHORT Romney. Long Pawlenty.
No new poll from SurveyUsa since independence day.
They sleep?
To half the Anons: I agree with you.
Half of you are articulate and thoughtful. Half of you are full of it.
Comment on the "last anon": SUSA can only do polls if somebody pays for them. So the question is: Who are their clients, and what states do they want to poll? (BTW/ it doesn't cost any more money to poll the whole country than a single state, assuming the same sample size.)
Crist didn't just get married, he announced he was engaged. Sorry, but the man is gay. Everyone in the Florida gay community knows it. (I'm straight, but I work in theater, so have a number of gay friends.)
And do you know what naming Romney would do to McCain's evangelical voters? These people think Mormons are the spawn of Satan.
I think Pawlenty is probably the Republican VP leader. For Obama, while he's not my top choice, I can see him picking Kaine.
McCain down three in Gallup Poll. Makes the Newsweek Poll all that more important. Looks like they captured something going on in the country.
A large move away from OBama by Indep.'s. Probably due to his extreme lurch to the right. This strategy app. failed, big time. I think all the noise about Gramm and J. Jackson means nothing.
Voters are paying attention, and want to understand, who OBAMA is, and what he stands for.
Simply stating that this is the real me now, don't look at what I said in the primary because that was not me is not going to work.
In fact, this lurch to the right may have doomed OBAMA'S candidacy, with the American Electorate. I still remember KERRY going goose hunting during the 2004 election. He looked like a fool.
This lurch to the right by OBAMA is on par with the hunting trip and DUKAKIS famous tank ride.
The left is mad, the right doesn't believe him, and he left the center of this country wondering, who the hell is Barack Obama?
I've been reading bloggers on this post talking about Vice-Presidential candidates for Obama, and many have been talking about their experience, or lack of experience. Truth be told, all of the candidates have more experience that Obama!
Can anybody say, Hillary Clinton for President. I think she can win a third party candidacy. At least we know where she stands, and what she believes in,I can't say the same for Obama!!!!
Thanks, Stephen.
Juris (and others): Are all the SUSA polls really paid for by someone else? I'd think that the big pollsters do some high-profile stuff (e.g. Presidential elections!) as a form of brand-building, so that people will pay them for market research and that kind of thing.
To SLS. From SUSA's website: "SurveyUSA conducts opinion polls for TV stations. We started in 1992. We have completed 30,000 research projects, and interviewed 30 million Americans. Today, we are the largest and most-active media pollster in the United States.
Media clients typically sign long-term exclusive contracts with SurveyUSA to prevent their competitors from using the service in the same marketplace."
SurveyUSA.com
I imagine that SUSA does some polling "on its own," but basically it's a for-profit organization and has to promote its product to clients.
MARK WARE(have a bit of your capital medicine): tell us who HILLARY's VP will be then? JESSE JACKSON (Sr.) or BILL RICHARDSON?
Here's a "map" of SUSA's major clients. I'm sure this isn't complete or necessarily the latest list, but it gives you an idea.
Map of SUSA clients
Huckabee is not even conservative on economic and other non-social issues; he's a total outsider and has endorsed candidates in other elections that are not favored by the GOP. What's more, he has the same ignorant foreign policy positions as Obama. No chance.
Lieberman has the opposite problem. No chance for him either.
Hate to be an idiot, but can someone more familiar with gambling define "short" and "long" (in this context) for me? I have an idea of what they mean, but would like confirmation. Thanks.
Is there a reason Haley Barbour is not being considered for Repub VP?
Short vs. long is not gambling terminology, it's investing terminology.
Check out this and this.
What's Jeb Bush up to? I know he's "Mr 28%'s" brother, but he's considered smarter; can guarantee Florida; I would assume appeases the Religious Right; and McCain might be strong-armed into picking the guy, by the dynasty-lunatics that will just not go away.
Most of those mentioning challenges for Palin (youth, inexperience, special needs child, moderate) are missing a bigger, practical negative. It's a long way to Alaska. Even in the jet age it takes a long time to get from Juneau to anywhere. And as a sitting Governor with a Lt. Governor running for Congress, Palin's plate is way too full to make the race. [Curiously, if she were a Senator from Alaska that wouldn't be a problem, so Lisa Murkowski would actually be a more practical pick, lineage notwithstanding.]
The problem would be the same for Lingle (who, I know, did not get mentioned here). Too bad, though, as Lingle has amassed a very impressive record in the Aloha State.
Snowe would be an interesting choice, and one of the few who might actually bring a state. Mainers vote for their own, as Ed Muskie demonstrated in 1968.
As for obscure picks, what about Mike Rounds? He's Catholic, strongly pro-life, halfway through his second term as Governor, and only 53. And, he opposes Ethanol mandates (which must take a lot of guts for a South Dakota Governor).
If McCain feels he needs a woman, it will be Hutchison. If he needs a safe pick, he'll go with Romney. If he wants a friend, he'll go with Fred Thompson. I can't see any reason he picks Pawlenty, Crist or Bloomberg.
All in all, I just cant believe John Engler got the honorable mention. What are the chances of a Michigan pick for VP either Engler or Romney (who grew up here as the son of one of our most beloved governors). I think 100 to 1 is being generous to Engler though, the one state recession that is plaguing Michigan started on his watch. He is the only politician in Michigan less popular than Granholm right now.
I have no idea how to solve the problem that the state built solely on the back of the large Truck, SUV, Luxury car industry. True it makes the smaller vehicles too but only took profits on the large ones. The market is gone, and these giants are not flexible enough to bend with the wind like our foreign rivals have been.
Truthfully, NAFTA and the other free trade agreements have not had much effect. Most jobs did not go south in Michigan. They disappeared because the car makers were not making products that people wanted, and constantly spun off parts makers, ala Delphi, although now they do it much smaller pieces and numbers.
i believe you have huntsman mislabeled.
he's a Traditional not a Base Reach.
just on the merits, he's a mainstream good-government conservative and moderate on education and the environment (search google news for his recent work on energy independence).
but even aisde from that, his being mormon makes him a wash at best with the theocrat base.
.
A VP does not cover for weaknesses. Trying to use the pick that way will backfire; it just shows you as insecure on an issue. They emphasize strengths.
Note that this does not decide between "base reach" and "center reach". McCain can plausibly argue having strengths in either direction. But trying to cover empty bases (Romney/economy for McCain, or Clark/military for Obama) is bad strategy. They might try it, but it would be dumb.
Time wasted on Jindal? I'm hoping that's from a "He needs to rebuild New Orleans" standpoint and not a "He's a weak candidate" standpoint.
I have gotten first hand reports from ground zero in New Orleans that Jindal's leadership skills are out of this world. Unfortunately, that type of thing is never mentioned in a Presidential race.
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