Here's something interesting: a tally of campaign ad spending over the past seven weeks, as tallied by TNS Media Intelligence and reported by the New York Times.
There's lots of interesting stuff to look at there, but what about those Florida numbers? The Obama campaign has bought more advertising time there than anywhere else, whereas McCain has spent absolutely nothing.
Two months ago, Florida looked like a strong McCain state -- not necessarily one that Obama couldn't win, but not the one that would put him over the top to 270 electoral votes. Obama trailed in every individual poll of Florida from the start of the campaign through the middle of June.
Since then, however -- and perhaps because of Obama's investment in the air war -- Florida has tightened, and has now snuck up to fifth place on our Tipping Point Index.
I'm still not sure that the Obama campaign has played its hand optimally. They seem to have a certain stubbornness in insisting they can compete in non-Virginia Southern states, in the same way that the McCain campaign insists in can compete in places like Minnesota.
But having closed the gap in Florida, I think the Obama campaign needs to keep the effort up, and see how the polls behave between now and Labor Day.
7.30.2008
Obama on Offense in Florida
@ 10:09 AM
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Pete: Typical offshore development times are five years from leasing to production. But right now all the drilling ships are booked up. Plus any legislation would no doubt allow states to keep their waters closed if they so choose, meaning a state-level fight even after national policy changes. Plus likely lawsuits on environmental impacts .... I'd say seven years is either realistic or optimistic. For ANWR, the estimates I've seen are ten years, I think because a lot of work can only be done in the winter when the tundra is frozen.
I actually support expanded drilling on balance-of-payments and security grounds, not to lower prices. Prices won't go down by much, and not at all for several years. Or rather they won't rise quite as high. Oil is running short, oil exports even more so (exporting countries can afford to subsidize growing domestic use even as the volume of their exports falls, because the price is rising faster).
And the recent drop in oil/gas prices is due to two things: gasoline inventories have been higher than expected the past couple of weeks, and the Bush administration looks like it's ready to start talking to Iran (thus reducing the fear premium).
Our military is all voluntary... amazing with all the democrats attempts to reinstate the draft.
We won't need an army to eliminate the Iran threat. Israel will do it by air with the help of the U.S. and our allies.
I wanna see another Indiana poll. It seems like it's been forever, and the previous results have been tantalizingly close.
Darien,
Its amazing to me how people can take their individual experiences and translate them to the whole country. You were at the Nevada caucus (not Vegas I'm presuming) and you saw a lot of mormons voting. You think that will somehow help McCain win anywhere else. Really funny. Obama won 9-1 in my caucus in Seattle but I don't translate that into support anywhere else.
Mormons make up a negligible portion in Nevada and Colorado. They make up an absurdly small proportion in almost every other swing state.
Give me one good reason why Nevada will not come down to the Vegas metro area?
Give me one good reason why Vegas will consider McCain seriously given the importance of the Yucca and economy issues?
Bush won Nevada by holding Kerry's Clark county margin to 5, but that was during far better economic times.
McCain put all his eggs in a basket when it comes to Penn, man he is trying to saturate that state just to end up losing it. I see Obama slowly fairing better in Florida, I was pretty convinced McCain would win this state, I still think he might but it will be interesting to watch.
Obama is a great leader, he has a strategy that has proved very well in the whole campaign. Please support Obama, visit WHYOBAMA08.oRG!!
Oh yeah... I would feel very safe with the threat of Iran... eliminated.
Yeah- because Iraq was so simple attacking a larger country with a bigger army while we currently are still engaged in Iraq and Afghanistan (where we already have too few troops) would make Iran a very easy war. Americans love the Iraq war so much that we are just craving another war just as disastrous huh?
If Obama wins Florida- The election is over. Barack Obama is the next President of the US.
Obama wins CA,NY,IL,NJ,MA,WA,MD,MN,WI,CT,IA,OR,NM,HI,ME,RI,DE,VT,and DC.(base States) plus CO(a must win State for Obama)and VA(Tim Kaine as his VP runningmate. = 271 ev. If he does not win Florida- He has to win PA and NV.(270).
CO is a must win state for Obama?
I totally disagree. There are a number of scenarios that get him there without CO. Of course, its a nice state to have.
I'm liking FL more. It is absolutely a must win state for McCain. There is really no plausible way that McCain can lose Florida and win the election. Obama would only have to win 1 of the other 10 tossup states listed on RCP.
So far, McCain hasn't spent anything there. He's got to spend money there. I'm convinced that if Obama has Florida to himself, he wins the election. If McCain has to spend a lot to defend Florida, its a pyrhhic victory. Its really a win-win for Obama.
I love the fact that the polls have tightened this much in Florida. If McCain still led by five, McCain could take a reasonably safe bet and ignore FL. I don't think he can anymore.
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