I wanted to extend and revise my remarks from the other day about the enthusiasm for the Obama campaign at the Netroots Nation Conference in Austin. I would maintain that there is somewhat less gusto for Obama than there might have been a couple of months ago. But there is an alternate explanation for this, apart from the notion that people are dissatisfied with the nominee: confidence -- perhaps overconfidence -- about Obama's electoral prospects in November. Everyone I spoke with this weekend expects Obama to win, to a degree that somewhat exceeds the relatively tight standing in the polling.
While such confidence might seem natural coming from the liberal/progressive base, it has not always been that way in the past. Liberals can sometimes be a pessimistic bunch, and John Kerry's defeat in 2004 had left many people feeling especially bitter. By contrast, it would be hard to overstate the importance of the 2006 election in terms of buoying and reinforcing activism, particularly in the online sphere. If the Democrats had not won back both chambers of Congress in 2006, one imagines that there would have been much less comfort in Barack Obama's business model, and that Hillary Clinton would have received a larger fraction of support from thought leaders both in the netroots and in the party establishment.
Are there dangers to Obama in all of this? Certainly there are some. Turnout is going to be high almost no matter what, but if people have concluded that the presidential race is fairly safe, they may begin to donate their time and money to Senate, House and local candidates rather than the Presidential effort; their attention already seems to be somewhat directed that way. Obama's July fundraising number -- which will serve as a baseline in a relatively newsless month -- is going to be worth paying particular attention to.
p.s. Also somewhat contrary to my earlier reporting, the Obama campaign did have some presence here. Deputy campaign manager Steve Hildebrand spoke on a panel yesterday, and Obama addressed the conference by means of a video message.
7.20.2008
Obama and Austin, Take II
@ 1:59 PM
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We have a term for this kind of post: The Back-peddle.
Isn't it interesting that when a Dem posts ANYTHING that isn't 100% sunshine and kisses for Obama, The Back-peddle is coming.
*snicker*
Nate,
And as well they should be nervous. Barack ( The middle name that shall not be spoken) Obama has steadily lost ground for the month of July. According to the Tracking Polls, the most accurate of the 2004 elections, show an almost dead heat.
First Gallup showed a tie race, and now Rasmussen is showing a tie. The support for Obama is slipping.
The slippage can all be traced back to his monumental flips and flops on many, many issues. As I have said before, these flips have angered his left wing base, the right wing does not believe him, and the center, which will decide this race, are left in a quandary about what to believe.
Is he for gun control or against gun control, is he for fisa or against fisa.
Is he for withdrawing from Iraq or against withdrawing from Iraq.
All of this in July, and the Republicans have yet to hit him on his preacher problem and his terrorist problem. Not to mention his "No Drill Policy."
By the way did anybody see Nancy Pelosio on CNN this morning. She is a certified idiot, and just cost Obama about one million votes.
Her absolutely saying the house will not vote on drilling offshore has just doomed a lot of Democrats to the ash heap of history.
75% of Americans want offshore drilling, but he Wicked Witch of the West says no, keep paying $4 plus for a gallon of gas. There will hell to pay in November and Obama is going down with her.
But I digress, Hillary still has a shot at the nomination and she should seriously consider wresting control from Obama.
Any other Democratic Presidential candidate would be 10 points ahead, Obama is essentially tied. Yes, I am very worried, and Obama has done nothing to allievate my concern.
anon at 12:10
I saw Pelosio on Cnn and she was an idiot. My God, how did she become the Speaker of the House? The congressional approval ratings are in the toilet and she blamed it on Bush and the Senate.
How does taxing th oil companies reduce the cost of a gallon of gasoline or diesel?
It just shocked me to listen to her ignorance of simple economics. The depth and breadth of her ignorance is just appalling.
On the one hand she says she will not allow drilling anywhere else, but she wants to release oil from the Strategic Oil Reserve, to bring down the cost of a barrel of oil.
Which leads me to believe she does understand supply and demand, but refuses to allow for America to increase their own supply.
She is defiantly wedded to the altar of environmental extremism. I had at one time voted democrat, but with gasoline being $4 a gallon I can no longer afford the Democratic party.
Overconfidence, if it leads to inaction, is a real danger of course, but the netroots crowd can be perhaps be forgiven for their aplomb this weekend in particular in light of the comments from Iraqi Prime Minister al-Maliki backing Barack Obama's Iraq withdrawal plan. It remains to be seen how effectively the Republicans will be able to spin and denigrate the Prime Minister's remarks, but if the media picks up on this as being as big a debate changer as it is, it effectively undermines the entire rationale for McCain's candidacy.
The Obamanation needs to address one historical fact and that is that they are getting destroyed in the number one indicator of electoral success.
Since 1968, the states of Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee, Missouri, Arkansas and Louisiana have voted AGAINST the eventual Republican vs Democrat loser in the presidential race.
These 6 contiguous states have been right on NIXON vs Humphrey, NIXON vs McGovern, CARTER vs Ford, REAGAN vs Carter, REAGAN vs Mondale, GHW BUSH vs Dukakis, CLINTON vs GHW Bush, CLINTON vs Dole, GW BUSH vs Gore and GW Bus vs Kerry.
They voted sitting Presidents out of office twice (Ford and Carter), and voted a President in and then back out within 8 years.
These 6 states all border either the Ohio or Mississippi rivers, and encompasse the birthplaces of such politically diverse philosophies as James Carville (LA), Bill Clinton (AR), Rush Limbaugh (MO), Harold Ford Jr. and Al Gore (TN).
Currently, McCain has huge leads in 4 of the states, Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee and Kentucky, and is leading in Missouri, while being deadlocked in Ohio.
This race is far from over.
Dear Argonaut boy: It seems to me that environment is in extreme trouble from the melting ice cap of the Artic to the crashing penguin populations of Antartica and everything in between including dying coral and vast droughts. The only way to be an environmental extremist is to deny the obvious and villify progrssives. Certainly Pelosi can do very little in the way of progressive let alone extreme legislation until Bush is gone. Eight years of waste we did not have to lose.
Funny, how the anonymous posters try to judge the situation from the outside, as if the netroots didn´t know by themselves how they are feeling...
Calling Nancy Pelosi "the wicked witch of the west", oh please... you are not a democrat. No wonder you would like to see Hillary "wresting control from Obama", that would make things a lot easier for republicans.
As if drilling would change anything about the current high gas prices... it´s 10 years at least until that increases the supply. Where is the short-term relief? Global demand will not be smaller in 10 years than today (thanks to China and India) except we find alternative sources of energy and get rid of oil as much as possible.
Perhaps someone could show us a graph of the point in the past week where we crossed the threshold of the comments section becoming not worth the trouble of reading at all.
Judging from the comments this weekend, I'm guessing that most of our regular substantive commenters must be at NN... ;-)
For what it's worth, Nate, I think the netroots have worked hard to focus on the broader picture -- Congress and state races + the presidential, as opposed to the presidential alone. Certainly the sessions with the presidential candidates were a highlight of last year's YearlyKos, but not the main focus. This is a contrast to the more general pool of activists and volunteers, who are more likely to get involved only in a presidential campaign (and there's certainly no shortage of enthusiasm there, judging from the streams of volunteers we have in our Obama offices here in VA.)
Nate, what hypocrisy.
Aren't you the #1 person feeding this overconfidence with your projections of this site?
Don't a lot of progressives follow this site regularly as a drug and come here to see Obama leading in the mythical "projections"?
I posted here months ago asking you to take into account the abnormally huge number of undecideds in these polls which you are totally ignoring and not a peep so far.
i surrender,
A chart would be interesting, but the rule of thumb is that process oriented threads (polling reports, political strategy issues, methodology discussions) have a much higher signal to noise ratio.
More "political" threads (discussions of "gaffes," political gatherings, etc.) will have very little of substance in the comments. But they do produce more amusing comments. Unfortunately, they also produce hate speech, personal attacks and other nonsense.
On the substance of Nate's post, I expect that NN, like those who are not political junkies, have moved their focus from the Presidential race until after Labor Day.
During the fall, I suspect that NN will re-focus on the extent to which winning the Presidency is important to setting the federal agenda.
The Presidency is first and foremost about the mundane process of appointing the management of the federal bureaucracy, a fact which determines the direction of more policy agendas than anything the legislative branch can hope to achieve. This fact escapes every political junkie from time to time.
However, when NN and other activists re-focus on the overall power of the Presidency, they will again be motivated to work to further Obama's chances.
1:15,
You aren't keeping up. The tracking polls aren't more accurate but even they both now show Obama at +3 and +2. Most election sites are showing the Democrat winning and usually by a wider margin than 538.
The reasons for overconfidence in the congressional elections is even more apparent. The average for the polling here is Democrats +11.6. Pelosi will have to say many very stupid things for any significant turnaround here.
If I were you, I would be so pessimistic as things stand that I wouldn't vote at all.
Hmmm.... time to allow troll-rating of comments? (Often necessary once a blog reaches a certain critical mass. Congrats on the well-deserved meteoric rise!)
Agreeing with acujimmy. But also, I'm finding the psychology of the anonymous comments (rantings?) to be interesting - a clear example of shoot the messenger.
For those who are concerned about McCain's numbers on this site - it might help to realize that most of Nate's numbers reflect polls conducted by others - so far as I can tell - Nate isn't polling anyone himself. I'm sure the pollsters are calculating undecideds, but if not - perhaps it would be best for you to go troll their sites and get them to do better?
Nate:
When are you planning on updating your projections of the senate races? There have been some recent polls in Minnesota and Oregon, for example, that could effect your projections.
The number 1 thing that will drive this election will be gas prices.
there is nothing else going on in America right now that affects more people than the price of gas and diesel.
The Democrats argument is high gas prices are good and drilling for more oil is bad.
Seventy-five percent of Americans want more drilling. This issue is getting bigger and bigger, as Iraq gets smaller and smaller.
Nancy Pelosi mad an idiot of herself this morning on Cnn blaming everybody but herself for Congress's problems. Again, when she took over Congress gasoline was around $2.00 a gallon. Now, the average is around $4.10 a gallon. Diesel is even higher, which is causing food prices to skyrocket.
And all Nancy Pelosi can say is we tried to raise taxes on Big Oil.
Now, HTF does that lower the price of a gallon of gas? Obama is right with her. The Republican commercials will play her over and over again saying no drilling, no drilling, no drilling and Obama will there saying the same thing.
This is the number one issue.
Obama Project- You are correct. Nate does not poll anybody and is not responsible for the contents of the polls.
He simply rates the polls on which one he thinks is most accurate and assigns a weight.
Obama Project- You are correct. Nate does not poll anybody and is not responsible for the contents of the polls.
He simply rates the polls on which one he thinks is most accurate and assigns a weight.
Jason said:
"The Democrats argument is high gas prices are good and drilling for more oil is bad."
Give us specific citations of Democrats saying that high gas prices are good. I doubt you can. Instead, you are putting words in their mouths and engaging in dishonest partisan bullshit.
Note, too, that the national debt has ballooned out of control. A windfall profits tax on gasoline is one obvious way to decrease the shortfall - something that Republicans used to care about, when they were fiscal conservatives, and very arguably a much more important issue for national security than the price of oil. I doubt you'd prefer a raise in income taxes, though that might be more progressive. People who think that allowing the national debt to balloon further and further out of control is OK are just whistling past the graveyard. THAT'S the big picture.
All I can say is that it had better not be raining in inner city Philadelphia or a lot of black folk may melt off those long lines.
I think overconfidence can be bad for any campaign especially when it is based on wishful thinking and not supported by any rationale basis.
For Obama I think the biggest threat will come within the Black community. While most AAs are excited about having one of their own at the top of the ticket he has done nothing to court their vote in any targeted way and there may be a feeling in the community of their having been ignored. I have no access to urban black radio, so I don't know what the talk of the inner city is.
The whole Reverend Wright thing appears to have been handled so as to deal with the sensibilities of white folks. And Jesse Jackson's comments reveal that there is a level of frustration about Obama's outreach to the community and they way in which he addresses it.
The rural voters in PA can jump out of their trucks and vote in five minutes all day long. And they will.
Pete Kent said:
"All I can say is that it had better not be raining in inner city Philadelphia or a lot of black folk may melt off those long lines."
Pete, I usually ignore your spin, but I happened to read this and take great umbrage at it, because you seem to be blaming black voters for being forced to wait _12 HOURS_ in the rain in Ohio in 2004. Very good: Effectively disenfranchise black voters, then blame them, with the added racist implication that "blacks are lazy."
The Republican Party has come a long way since it was founded as the party of liberation. Lincoln and the Radical Republicans of the Reconstruction are turning over in their graves.
pete 'bent' kent: people are suckers for making history - they don't let a bit of water get in the way of that.
I'll assume that a lot of bloggers (the primary audience and presenters in Austin) think Obama is smart enough to navigate the terrain. Their passion is subdued because they aren't as worried as they were in 2004. On the whole, bloggers really only have one presidential cycle under their belt where the had to write daily/hourly about the campaign in one way or another. Obama hasn't stumbled. He has made some mistakes in the eyes of Left bloggers but he hasn't really stumbled. Obama has admitted he will make mistakes. Kerry in 2004 on the other hand...
It may be over confidence but also the politically experienced bloggers know that Obama wasn't going to be their perfect candidate. No candidate can be. They understand that.
Obama's job is to show the swing voters that he isn't some sleeper cell member or isn't some radical far Left candidate. That's bound to upset some people and bore some others, but, on the whole, I suspect the attendees feel confident that he is smart enough to win in the end. They're less anxious than in 2004. Less anxious may look like less passion.
Jason-
Comparing July gas prices to November gas prices is apples and oranges in pretty much any year and any situation, because of simple supply and demand.
The prices started going up sharply in 2005, not 2006 (this seems to be the right's biggest rewrite of history, that everything started crashing down in 2006.)
1:40--
It's absurd to say any states is going to be demographically identical forever. Technically, they have "decided" elections, but mostly by coincidence...If Obama wins, he almost certainly will be the first President in decades to do so without Tennessee, Arkansas or Kentucky, barring a massive landslide.
"Any state," sorry.
Jason wrote:
Again, when [Pelosi] took over Congress gasoline was around $2.00 a gallon. Now, the average is around $4.10 a gallon.
Riiiight.... that's the association that most voters will make.
Can't wait till November, when voters turn out en masse to express their frustration with the failed policies of the Pelosi Administration.
/snark
The "Obama must win X state" arguments are based on a simple fallacy of logic. Anyone visiting a polling site should be able to understand that correlation is not causation. The notion of "belleweather states" has no merit - these states have changed over time, and will change again. Obviously, there are multiple paths to 270 electoral votes. If this weren't the case, the site you're visiting would draw far fewer hits.
It's pretty easy to see cut'n'paste McCain trolling. Illogic, combined with twisted readings of history. Saying that Arkansas and Louisiana "voted against the loser" in '68? Both states went for George Wallace - that's not a vote against Humphrey in Nixon's favor. It's a vote for George Wallace, who remains, in every sense, amongst the greatest losers in American Presidential history.
and...
anyone who wants to lay gas prices at the feet of the Democratic Congress needs a review
"thisniss said...
The "Obama must win X state" arguments are based on a simple fallacy of logic. Anyone visiting a polling site should be able to understand that correlation is not causation. The notion of "belleweather states" has no merit - these states have changed over time, and will change again. Obviously, there are multiple paths to 270 electoral votes. If this weren't the case, the site you're visiting would draw far fewer hits.
It's pretty easy to see cut'n'paste McCain trolling. Illogic, combined with twisted readings of history. Saying that Arkansas and Louisiana "voted against the loser" in '68? Both states went for George Wallace - that's not a vote against Humphrey in Nixon's favor. It's a vote for George Wallace, who remains, in every sense, amongst the greatest losers in American Presidential history."
Dear thisniss:
I'm sorry but you are Banned from this site for excessive use of logic, together with presenting fact based arguments that cause the Trolls' heads to explode.
"Uhhnnn! Not in McCain talking points! Can't handle!" [Kapow!]
I don't think you can just dismiss statistics like that! I mean, ALL of the VPs for the past 8 years have been people who shot someone in the face at some point in time! And if you go back to Aaron Burr, you'll see how important that criterion is (Hamilton only made it to the $10 bill, NOT to the presidency).
So it becomes clear that, unless Obama buys a gun, he will NEVER win this election!
Err... I wouldn't worry so much about NN folks wanting to help out Senate candidates. I think Obama has wellsprings of support in the younger generation (which the demos show isn't exactly the biggest component of the blogger generation).
Also, Obama's campaign is super organized.
Kent, yes, the rural PA voters will jump out of a pickup truck, having never seen a black person before in their life. They'll vote Democrat -- this is a union state.
There's enthusiasm for Obama at the Netroots Nation conference? Holy shit, really?
(rolls eyes)
I realize this thread is old, and perhaps no one will see this. But...
Jason said: 75% of Americans want offshore drilling, but he Wicked Witch of the West says no, keep paying $4 plus for a gallon of gas.
In a study four years ago the Federal Energy Information Administraion completed a projection of ANWR drilling. They concluded that it would teake ten years from the political decision to drill before the first drop of oil would be pumped. It would then take nine years to hit peak production. There are several unkowns that would effect peak production - things like the amount of oil, the quality of the oil, the size of fields are all unkonwn.
In the best case scenario, the EIA projected that in 18 years - at peak production - ANWR oil could lower prices by $1.44 per BARREL, though their mean projection was 75 cents per barrel - and their worst case scenario was that ANWR oil would lower oil costs by 41 cents. These reductions would amount to pennies per gallon in 2028.
McCain had a rare moment of candor when he said that drilling would have no near term benefits other than psychological.
Read the report yourself, it is non-ideological
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