Obviously, I have a lot of nits to pick when it comes to campaign coverage, but my single least favorite brand of analysis is what I term "Match Game Arguments": No candidate has ever [blank]. Given various intersections of geography, demography and history, there are literally thousands of plausible-sounding permutations that can be conceived to rule out any prospective candidate.
Let me pick on Steven Stark (whose stuff I usually enjoy), who engages in a few of these arguments today at the Boston Phoenix, and uses it to conclude that John McCain is a slight favorite over Barack Obama. Stark's four factoids are as follows:• No Democrat who hails from north of the Mason-Dixon line has been elected since 1960.
Let's see how easy it is to come up with counterexamples that would rule out John McCain's candidacy. I'm going to start a stopwatch and see how long this takes me.
• No candidate in the modern primary era has ever been elected in November after failing to win more than one of the nation’s seven largest states in either its pre-convention primary or, if the state didn’t hold a primary, its caucuses.
• No candidate in modern times has ever been elected president with a voting record that could be identified as his party’s most liberal or conservative, yet in 2007 Obama was designated as the former (by the National Journal).
• No candidate arguably since Abraham Lincoln has been elected president with as little political experience as Obama.• No Democrat who hails from north of the Mason-Dixon line has been elected since 1960.
No President has ever been elected from the Mountain Time Zone.• No candidate in the modern primary era has ever been elected in November after failing to win more than one of the nation's seven largest states in either its pre-convention primary or, if the state didn't hold a primary, its caucuses.
No Republican has ever been elected after failing to carry Colorado in the primaries (McCain lost it to Mitt Romney). No Republican has ever been elected after failing to carry Georgia in the priamries (McCain lost it to Mike Huckabee). No candidate from either party has ever been elected while receiving less than 19 percent of the vote in the Iowa caucus (McCain received 13 percent), except when a native son was running (Tom Harkin in 1992).• No candidate in modern times has ever been elected president with a voting record that could be identified as his party's most liberal or conservative, yet in 2007 Obama was designated as the former (by the National Journal).
No candidate has ever been elected from the incumbent party when the sitting president had a Gallup approval rating below 40 percent.• No candidate arguably since Abraham Lincoln has been elected president with as little political experience as Obama.
No candidate as old as John McCain has ever been elected to a first term.
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7.31.2008
My Least Favorite Argument
@ 1:29 AM
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83 comments
nice
my favorite was always that no incumbent with a four letter last name had ever been elected to a second term...George W. broke that one...
People who like those sorts of facts...factoids...are often baseball fans. "This pitcher has never won an away game played against a west-coast team on astroturf on a cloudy Tuesday night the week after pitching a shutout Wednesday afternoon home game during which over 75% of the fans purchased both a hot dog and a soft pretzel. In July."
This election has broken so many barriers, I doubt conventional wisdom applies anyway. We are likely to see a whole lot of firsts this November.
If that's going to be the argument game, they might as well just say "No black guy has ever been elected President."
Illinois isn't one of the 7 largest states?
"Moreover, McCain has some cards to play, even if he has not played them yet."
McCain's campaign is outspending Obama's campaign. Because Obama will have more money, McCain will be in a big financial hole.
If I was him and I had more cards to play later on, I'm not sure I would be wasting resources on ads comparing Obama to Brittany Spears.
They might have cards to play but they won't have chips to play them with if they keep this up.
So far I'm underwhelmed by the quality of the negative attack ads they've put out on Obama. If they have something on him, they better start using it.
Illinois isn't one of the 7 largest states?
It's 25th by area. But making this sort of claim based on land area would be fairly odd.
Nate,
I had read that same article shortly before your post, and I agree with you.
I think Stark also should be called out for resorting to that old Republican chestnut "Carter, Dukakis and Kerry had summer leads, and look what happened." I find that almost as bad as the "No candidate has ever ..." garbage.
In investing, the motto is "Past results are no guarantee of future performance." Why is it that no one applies this same wisdom to Presidential elections?
Attacks don't work against Obama. Hillary's didn't work and neither do McCain's. Obama loses support only when he hurts himself.
Obama has lost support on 4 occasions since January:
1) Jeramiah Right (March)
2) Clinging to God and Guns (April)
3) Jeramiah Right episode 2(May)
4) Flip Flop(July)
All of these occurances were self inflicted. Including the July flip flops when Barack made a calculated move to the center. There has not been a single attack on Obama that has stuck. McCain can't win this election, but Obama can lose it.
Really glad you made that point, Nate. I've been meaning to post (and this is a good place to do so) the same criticism of Allan Lichtman's Keys To The White House. How can one falsify whether or not 13 true-false questions are going to make an accurate prediction, when there are 2^13 combinations to test?
Smaller subsets of Lichtman's keys, including just two of them, are a bit more testable. IIRC, the two keys that have performed perfectly since ca. Lincoln's time are short-term economy (which cannot be perceived, in a man-on-the-street way rather than a technical, whiny Phil Gramm way, to be in recession) plus contest (i.e., there cannot be a knock-down, drag-out contest for the nomination of the incombent party). If either of those conditions is false, the challenging party wins. Prediction this year, based on Lichtman's "Two Keys": Obama (short economy key false).
But if you want to predict based on the economy, I like Alan Abramowitz's electoral barometer (also see this post for a nice graph showing how his formula has worked).
To the extent that people are worried about the economy and gas prices, I hope the Republicans play that right up. It will only remind voters how poorly things have gone under a Republican administration. I don't think offshore drilling is a wedge issue on which the GOP can get a net win. The overall point that both Lichtman and Abramowitz are making is that voters choose rationally, based on tangible things that have happened during the past four or eight years. Voters keep the incumbent party in power when they don't screw up too much, and boot them when things go poorly. (What's been the GOP energy policy? A botched war for oil. Not a big winner.)
Those people mistake coincidence for causation.
It used to be that Maine had voted for the winner in every Presidential election for 100 years, thus creating the saying "As goes Maine, so goes the nation."
Until FDR swept every single state except Maine and Vermont in 1936, thus giving rise to the saying "As goes Maine, so goes Vermont."
No Bald-headed or balding man has won the Presidency since Eisenhower. So, McCain is on thin grounds.
No white-haired man has ever won the Presidency so McCain is toast.
No black has ever won so Obama can't.
No-one from Illinois has been elected President since Abraham Lincoln, so Obama has no chance.
No one from the state of Arizona has ever been elected President, so McCain hasn't a prayer.
Etc.
I'm going to expect four articles an hour out of you from now on, Nate. Nice takedown.
How many instances have each of these had to test?
I mean things like "no candidate has won an election while losing 7 largest primaries", how many candidates have won the nomination while losing the 7 largest primaries. Same thing with the Iowa thing.
If you track enough things, you get some amazing correlations purely by coincidence.
The Redskins are a much better team under Republican administrations. Check the stats its true.
This puts me in a great dilemma as a Skins fan and a Democrat. I almost hope McCain wins
"No one from the state of Arizona has ever been elected President, so McCain hasn't a prayer."
I'm told that McCain is super superstitious and that he actually quotes this stat all the time like he believes it has some significance. I guess he also thinks mentioning it will cause it to be broken.
He insisted on sleeping in the exact same hotel room and the exact same bed the night before the NH primary that he used the night before 2000's primary. Apparently it worked.
I bet he switched beds in SC though.
The election has never been won by a candidate who dumped his first wife when she was disfigured in a car crash and called his second wife a c*** in front of a group of reporters.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Euu_DMhsXQo
Not to remind you folks, but the citizens of the states of OHIO and KENTUCKY and MISSOURI and TENNESSEE and ARKANSAS and LOUISIANA have a 100% perfect record in voting against the eventual LOSER in the presidential race, in the past 10 elections.
They are saying OBAMA is the loser.
But, you all know better...
The "no Pres ever elected from AZ" one is hilarious. 50 states, only 43 presidents so far, the first dozen of whom were drawn from a pool of far fewer states. Has any other previous candidate, besides Goldwater, even come from Arizona?
That's some stupid superstition McCain's got thar....
For trollish TJB: thanks for another EXAMPLE of the silly LOGIC Nate just SKEWERED.
Not to remind you folks, but the citizens of the states of OHIO and KENTUCKY and MISSOURI and TENNESSEE and ARKANSAS and LOUISIANA have a 100% perfect record in voting against the eventual LOSER in the presidential race, in the past 10 elections.
They are saying OBAMA is the loser.
But, you all know better...
So what? 10 elections are NOTHING.
If they can hold this string for another-lets say 80 elections- then we can talk. I´m sure if Nate simulates long enough, he´ll find 10 elections where Hawaii goes Republican- in one row!
Or where Alabama votes Democrat while Massachusetts doesnt.
Cugel,
as far as I know the party which won the gubernatorial elections in ME would win the GE. The presidential election of Maine had not much to do with it. But I may be wrong...
10 elections is such a small datapool that you can´t read anything out of it. Not even every election since the establishment of the 2nd party system would be enough.
Besides: I don´t think that all those states will give their EV to the same person, so some of these bellwethers will lose their reputation.
TJB:
MASSACHUSETTS, MINNESOTA, RHODE ISLAND, and TEXAS voted against the eventual loser in every election from 1932-1964. Hubert Humphrey won them all.
I'm truly relieved to know that these states prevented a man like Richard Nixon from becoming President.
New Quinnipiac polls.
Ohio: Obama +2
Florida: Obama +2
PA: Obama +7
It's good for Obama, because only PA is a must win for him.
If McCain lose one of OH or FL, it's finish.
MEDIA BASH BARACK (NOT A TYPO)
Study Finds Obama Faring Worse On TV News Than McCain
Barack Obama is getting more negative coverage than John McCain on TV network evening news shows, reversing Obama’s lead in good press during the primaries, according to a new study by Center for Media and Public Affairs (CMPA). The study also finds that a majority of both candidates’ coverage is unfavorable for the first time this year.
See the full study here: http://www.cmpa.com/Studies/Election08/election%20news%207_29_08.htm
And the Quinnipiac numbers are LIKELY VOTERS. If the likely voters from quinnipiac are the same methodology from Usatoday/Gallup, Obama can be more than 2 and 7 points.
The only way these kinds of factoids apply is if it can be demonstrated that they influence voter choice.
I doubt many voters will be standing in the voting booth saying, "This guy Obama... ehh, I'm not sure. I mean, he failed to win more than one of the nation's seven most populous states in the primary and the only state he won was Illinois which is, of course, his home state and is, now that I think of it, north of the Mason-Dixon line. My head hurts all of a sudden... Better vote for McCain."
The "most liberal" and "inexperienced" tags could do (and probably have done) some damage, but I wonder if it's wise for Mr. Stark to draw a comparison between Obama's inexperience and the inexperience of a man widely thought of us one of our two or three greatest presidents.
I do get a chuckle when I imagine McCain standing up in one of the debates and saying, "Senator, I knew Abe Lincoln. Abe Lincoln was a friend of mine..."
*No human being in history has ever compiled so much incorrect polling information, added it all together, called it "Electoral Projections Done Right", and posted it on the internet for the sole purpose of promoting a presidential candidate.
It should be called...
"Electoral Projections Done Left"
I was initially fed up with those kind of observations when Obama lost WV. The meme at the time was, "No Democrat has won without West Virginia since _____," as though making statements of this sort are even remotely insightful. Hell, just look at the recent Republican collapse in the Northern U.S.
Previous to Reagan in 1980, no Republican had won the presidency without winning Minnesota SINCE THE PARTY WAS CREATED in 1854. Previous to Bush in 2000, no Republican had won the presidency without Illinois, Wisconsin or Vermont SINCE THE PARTY WAS CREATED in 1854. Previous to Bush in 2004, no Republican had won the presidency without New Hampshire SINCE THE PARTY WAS CREATED in 1854.
I can do one of these for damn near every Northern state. Look at PA, for example. Lincoln carried it twice, Grant carried it twice, Hayes carried it, Garfield carried it, Harrison carried it, McKinley carried it twice, Teddy carried it, Taft carried it, Harding carried it, Coolidge carried it, Hoover carried it, Ike carried it twice, Nixon did not carry it in 1968 but did in 72, Reagan carried it twice, Bush41 carried it, and Dubya lost the Keystone State both times. Every Republican that won the presidency previous to Bush carried PA at least once, with the sole exception coming from Nixon's first victory in 1968.
These sort of things are broken practically every election, what with constant socio-economic and demographic shifts taking place.
TJB - I assume you're talking about the primaries? You are aware that Obama won Missouri, right?
This is 2008. The USA has never elected a person of color as president. The USA has never elected a dead person as president.
Let's end these stupid non sequiturs, and look forward instead of backwards.
This is 2008. The USA has never elected a person of color as president. The USA has never elected a dead person as president.
Let's end these stupid non sequiturs, and look forward instead of backwards.
but you see this election is identical to some other election furthermore,
This is analagous to the sports trivia they constantly post about being the first athlete to complete X+Y+Z, which no one cared about & they can do because of computer data bases. Also resembles the daily economic reporting on the best or worst in x months/years for housing, inflation, etc.
It should be called...
"Electoral Projections Done Left"
That might scare away Karl Rove...
Thanks for that Nate.
I especially hate how these arguments use phrases like "in the modern primary era" to reduce an already tiny statistical sample (55 previous elections) to complete statistical nonsense (nothing before 1960 counts).
And an important and fairly recent example... Clinton in '92 was the first Democrat to win despite losing Texas. Now, it's hard to foresee a time when the Democrat will win Texas. Electoral map is just fine for the Dems without Texas now.
Steven Stark?
Ugh. What a waste of column inches (or, in the case of the Phoenix, up to an entire tabloid page).
Here's my favorite anti-Obama observation: No senator has been elected president since JFK! He is so lost.
Here's my favorite anti-McCain observation: No senator has been elected president since JFK! He is so lost.
Hm, might be arguable, but I'd still dispute this point:
No candidate arguably since Abraham Lincoln has been elected president with as little political experience as Obama.
I'd refer anyone to the following discussion for further information about what the true experience levels and (somewhat subjective) success rates history has given us.
Namely, Woodrow Wilson and Grover Cleveland were only governor for 2 years before taking office; FDR was only 2 years in a state legislature and 4 years a governor.
Obama, while comparable to Lincoln's experience, is not near the bottom of the list. He's been in state legislature for 7, and will have been in the US Senate 3 years by the time he takes office. That puts him out of the bottom quartile of all experience. If you want to weight their respective experience in public offices different amounts, fine-- I still contend that he is not "the least experienced president since Lincoln".
Indeed, Nate. If you torture that data long enough, it'll confess.
I've got one...
Not black candidate that won his party's nomination has ever gone on to lose the Presidency.
Nate, what took you so long?
Steve-
It might not confess, but it will say anything you want it to.
It seems to my statistically-minded self that there are two main problems with all these sort of things: 1) there are far too few data points for meaningful prediction and 2) no attempt is made to establish the independence of the variables (of course this is because any such attempt would be sure to prove their arguments wrong).
Wow,
You totally schooled him on this one. Nice post!
Here is the way I look at it:
No president has ever been elected when his opponent won a majority of the electoral votes.
People who think that Ohio or Missouri or Arkansas or anywhere else has any extreme importance greater than their level of electoral votes are stupid.
Clearly, the winner has got to get the majority and that means winning the states in the middle of the continuum of the whole left/right divide in this country.
But where the middle is changes over time. For a long time, Maine was in the middle. Then it was the southern states. Now it is the industrial midwest states but it is starting to change into VA-CO-NM.
NAthan:
Excellent post - and yet another indication of just how vacuous and silly talking heads and political 'reporters' can be.....
Here are a few of my favorites:
1. No GOP nominee has ever been elected who had facial growths removed within 100 days of the election.
2. No GOP nominee has ever been elected who hails from a state that does not recognize Daylight Savings Time.
3. No Democratic nominee has ever been elected who name contains more vowels than consonants.
TBJ, you keep making the same "not voted against the LOSER in past 10 elections" claim, but it's always FALSE (to say nothing of the fact that you're supporting Nate's argument).
AK and LA voted for George Wallace twice. Remind me again of the years in which he was the "WINNER" of an election? Voting for another, bigger loser doesn't count as "voting against the loser." That's not just a stupid argument, it's factually incorrect. And idiotic.
Good post. A refinement, the National Journal liberal-rating has been repeated so much it has been accepted as stone-etched, but using their parameters, Obama finished well down the list. I cant recall the number but in the teens. The assignation was arbitrary, or editorial if you will, but had no basis in fact.
DarienCrow said...
*No human being in history has ever compiled so much incorrect polling information, added it all together, called it "Electoral Projections Done Right", and posted it on the internet for the sole purpose of promoting a presidential candidate.
It should be called...
"Electoral Projections Done Left"
We'll be so sorry to see you go; buh bye now.
Good post. A refinement, the National Journal liberal-rating has been repeated so much it has been accepted as stone-etched, but using their parameters, Obama finished well down the list. I cant recall the number but in the teens. The assignation was arbitrary, or editorial if you will, but had no basis in fact.
I'm reminded of a quote of (I think) William Proxmire to a first-term senator facing re-election: "If you believe everyone, there are fifty-five senators that are the most liberal member of the Senate."
Kenny Mayne, I think, does a segment like this on SportsCenter every year as football season nears. IT uses these same sorts of "no team that did X ever won the Super Bowl" pseudo-factoids to conclusively "prove" that no team can win the Super Bowl this year.
What bothers me just as much, in fact, is when an announcer cites stats like "the Bucs have beaten the Jets the last six times they've met" and calls the Bucs the favorite. Except those two teams would play each other only once every four years. So how does that relate to the present day?
Nate - They may be the analytical equivalent of soundbites, but they have a basis in theory or experience to link them to an electoral outcome. Not true for some of your responses.
For instance, the fact that no Northern Democrat has been elected since 1960 is a catchy way to say that Democrats who haven't been able to compete in the South have not been able to assemble 270 electoral votes. Whereas your comeback about the Mountain Time Zone is a non-sequitur, without even a theoretical causality to the outcome of the election.
Likewise, failing to win big-state primaries implies (true or not) that Obama has trouble with broad electorates, while your response regarding Colorado, Georgia, and Iowa has no obvious implication for the general election.
You did better with the last two. Presidential approval ratings and a candidate's age both suggest obvious electoral implications.
So the author is making a legitimate (if common) observation by using these hackneyed phrases. It's a writing shortcut, not the word game you pretend it to be.
DarienCrow:
The only way to know for sure that the polling is "incorrect" is to compare it to the results on Election Day.
Until then, all your mouthing off about bias is just that: mouthing off.
Zip up. Your bias is showing.
""Likewise, failing to win big-state primaries implies (true or not) that Obama has trouble with broad electorates.""
Not really, unless he picked up less than say 25% of the vote.
Otherwise we have both Clinton and Obama each getting about half the vote plus or minus a few percent.
One candidate getting 55% and the other 45% certainly doesn't indicate that the former is somehow capable of winning a broad electorate and the latter not...the figures aren't really that different, and largely boil down to a personal preference. Obama scored better among the "broad electorate" in Ohio & Pennsylvania (& Texas) then Hillary did in Virginia and Wisconsin.
The broad electorate argument could be made in West Virginia and Kentucky, but they aren't competitive anyways.
Stark's argument is sheer numerology, the same sort of argument behind bible codes. With a proper filter, one can find "secret messages" in any book, just as one can prove that any candidate has the edge by cherry picking.
All of these occurances were self inflicted.
No, they were media-inflicted. It is absurd to say that Obama inflicted upon himself the 24/7 airing of an decontextualized snippet of speech by another man (who happens to also be black), a speech Obama wasn't even present for, a speech that was repeatedly misrepresented in a very racist way, as was the church to which they both belonged. Obama did not inflict upon himself that stinking pile of racist demonization. Nor did he inflict upon himself the ripping out of context and misrepresentation of his statement -- a la Thomas Frank's "What's the Matter with Kansas" -- about people being bitter about a government that has repeatedly failed them -- a misrepresentation that was a keystone of the media's most absurd meme -- direct from the Republican talking points -- that Obama is "elitist". That's not self-imposed, that's a very deliberate propaganda campaign based on extraordinary cherry picking, misrepresentation, and outright lies.
they have a basis in theory
No they don't -- not if "theory" means anything beyond "baseless conjecture".
or experience to link them to an electoral outcome
Special pleading; Nate's examples are just as much matters of experience as Stark's.
you seem to be forgetting that arizona doesn't observe daylight time so they're on the same clock as the pacific time zone right now.
look for mccain's support to plummet when arizona re-aligns with the mountain time zone 2 days before the election.
Darren said:
"Whereas your comeback about the Mountain Time Zone is a non-sequitur, without even a theoretical causality to the outcome of the election."
So, there's nothing about the Mountain States that is unique demographically? Like, say, population density? Or are you only allowed to divide the country by North/South?
It used to be that Maine had voted for the winner in every Presidential election for 100 years, thus creating the saying "As goes Maine, so goes the nation."
Until FDR swept every single state except Maine and Vermont in 1936, thus giving rise to the saying "As goes Maine, so goes Vermont."
Not even slightly true. Going back 100 years from 1936, Maine voted for Herbert Hoover in 1932; Charles Evans Hughes in 1916; Benjamin Harrison in 1892; James G. Blaine (a native son) in 1884; John C. Frémont in 1856; and Lewis Cass in 1848.
as far as I know the party which won the gubernatorial elections in ME would win the GE. The presidential election of Maine had not much to do with it. But I may be wrong...
This doesn't seem to be true, either. The Republican won the 1884, 1888, 1912, and 1916 elections for Governor of Maine. The Democrats won in 1880.
In both cases, the issue seems to be that Maine was almost always won by Republicans, and the Republicans won the vast majority of presidential elections in that period, as well. But Maine had no preternatural record of success.
Joe Posnanski of the KC Star has a similar (and much funnier) version of the same argument here.
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秋葉原 メイド
ペット火葬 つくば
つくば ペット火葬
つくば ペット霊園
つくば ペット葬儀
立食パーティー用プレート
でしこ
soul source production
ベトナム シーフード
高収入 アルバイト
高収入 アルバイト
アパレル 求人
アパレル 派遣
人妻 出会い
風俗
風俗
デリヘル
アダルトゲーム
高収入求人
高収入求人
ソープランド
性感マッサージ 名古屋
M性感 名古屋
出会い
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^^ nice blog!! thanks a lot! ^^
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