On Friday, Nate highlighted a significant element in the crosstabs of the Newsweek poll: the difference in hard support versus soft support for each candidate, and what that implies about the task at hand for each campaign in the general election. I want to follow on and amplify that point with more data from Pew from its large late-June survey of 2,004 voters.
The Newsweek poll showed that 61% to 39% of Obama’s support was hard vs. soft and that the mirror image was true for McCain. Applied to the whole electorate, the Newsweek poll showed:
27% hard support Obama
17% soft support Obama
15% totally undecided
25% soft support McCain
16% hard support McCain
Pew’s numbers are strikingly similar. From its June 2008 poll (June 18-29, 2,004 participants):
28% hard support Obama
20% soft support Obama
12% totally undecided
26% soft support McCain
14% hard support McCain
According to Pew’s findings, 58% of the electorate is undecided or soft support (potentially peel-able). To get to a 50%-50% tie with Obama, McCain would need to win 36/58ths of this group, or roughly 62%. I agree with Nate both that this is probably a Republican-shaded group on the whole, and also with his speculation that McCain’s and Obama’s respective ceilings are probably 60% and 50%. 60% for McCain in no small part because 35% of that middle group consists of decided (but soft) Obama supporters and certainly Obama will win some of the truly undecided even if McCain winds up taking the lion’s share. Obama’s ceiling at 50% seems reasonable because splitting that middle group 50-50 means Obama wins by 14 in the Pew poll.
With Pew showing McCain needing 62% of that group to get tied, poll findings like these (non-state specific as they are) indicate McCain either needs to introduce a game-changer that fundamentally undermines the Obama voter commitment level or he needs to almost perfectly maximize his messaging to grab nearly everyone gettable within this group.
Keep in mind, this is before the ground organization edge and additional voter registration boost is factored in.
The distressing news for McCain in these numbers is that Obama and McCain pull an identical 82% of their respective bases and that the poll shows independents evenly split. There isn’t an obvious untapped well of voters McCain’s camp simply needs to target with its message. Any argument of “McCain just needs to reach out to X” is balanced by a corresponding “Obama just needs to shore up support with X.” Nothing is glaringly unaligned in these numbers. There are just more Democratic voters in 2008.
Historically, Pew compares the 2008 hard/soft support data to its past summer polling in presidential years:
The two most noticeable elements in Pew’s recent historical data are (1) pre-convention support for Obama in 2008 essentially equal to post-convention support for Kerry in 2004; and (2) the hard Bush support in 2000 and especially 2004 looks like the Republican outlier, as McCain’s numbers appear to revert to match the hard support inspired by previous Republican nominees.
In 2004, the Democratic convention took place July 26-29; Pew conducted its 2004 poll in August and before the Republican convention August 30-Sept 2. With a convention still in front of him that Obama hopes will inure to his benefit in terms of party unity, there’s reason for optimism that Obama will edge past Kerry’s hard/overall support numbers after the convention has passed. There is also risk – as soon as Obama picks Not Hillary Clinton as his VP, that unity gets its stiffest test since the primaries ended.
As for the second point, George W. Bush’s hard/soft support numbers remind us that McCain’s support is not the outlier at this stage of the game (he just has a proportionally much smaller base). Bush seems to be the outlier. Republicans loved him exponentially more than they have loved their other recent nominees. Inspired Republicans felt thrilled to have found a nearly perfect ideological match. Republicans worshipped that guy. Mired as we are in the great conservative walkback revisionist mythology that insists George W. Bush was “not a true conservative” and certainly “not the apotheosis of conservative evolutionary ideological perfection,” it’s inconvenient to notice that Republican base values only four short years ago tracked closely with hard support for Bush. Just look at the numbers. These days, little old ladies are banished from McCain town halls for daring to associate the nominee with the president in his own party.
In terms of base enthusiasm, what separates George W. Bush from his father, from Dole, and from McCain is that only the younger Bush was a hero to evangelicals. Evangelical Christians remain the organizing engine of the Republican Party, and they typically don’t get the credit they deserve for winning the race for Bush in 2004 (usually pundits like to frame the outcome as "John Kerry lost," despite unprecedented Democratic turnout). McCain’s current level of milquetoast support from that group is a major obstacle to him winning in an environment where Democrats are both more numerous and significantly harder in their support for Obama.
It’s awareness that these evangelicals are still the pumping heart of the Republican organizing infrastructure that motivates my belief McCain ought to seriously consider Mike Huckabee as his VP. (Nate has offered Republican VP speculation here.) Huckabee may have a few gaffes here and there, and he may be wildly out of the American mainstream for some of his views once those views reach sunlight, but I simply don’t think those views are going to capture enough voter attention nor be meaningfully damaging enough (as merely the VP) to outweigh the benefits Huckabee would bring the ticket. If McCain isn’t able to get any oxygen in the narrative (good or bad), how much scrutiny will his VP choice really get? Would a perceived base pander pick truly hurt McCain with the undecideds in a way that has any staying power?
Importantly, Huckabee has the virtue of coming across as empathetic. No matter how ungenerous his policies might actually be if and when implemented, he has a way of leaving the impression on viewers of a man who cares. He passes the likability test.
As for political skill, Huckabee seems to understand deference to the top of the ticket. He was far and away the most telegenic communicator among the Republican hopefuls during the primary (and certainly hands down the best on Nate’s list), and it’s certainly the simplest and most direct way for McCain to lock down the support and enthusiasm of that desperately-needed evangelical organizing engine. McCain’s age would probably inspire the evangelicals to view Huckabee’s heir apparent spot in line as an object in the mirror closer than it may appear. As base Republican enthusiasm for McCain would rise, the deliberate Obama effort to encroach on evangelical voter territory that has long been Republican by acclaim may find frustration.
Huckabee has plenty of drawbacks as the choice and it's easy to pick him apart as a bad choice for the ticket. The problem is, it's easy to do that with any Republican VP choice since nobody brings everything, and McCain has to pick someone.
7.15.2008
Hard Support vs. Soft Support
@ 5:05 PM
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Obama seems to be gaining some traction among Evangelicals. Today's Quinnipiac poll has him at 28% in this group, and that's a huge number as I think Kerry barely got 20%. Because it's such a huge and critical red base, getting +8% in that group is really critical to the Landslide potential. With a Tim Kaine type for Veep, who can really go out and speak to this community in their language as a passionate Christian, while he's a catholic he is very devote, will enable the number to grow even more.
McCain may be forced to pick Huck
These numbers sure give one hope. If Obama just needs to solidify his base with an extensive groundroots effort, and McCain has to actively solicit people to abandon the party... then definitely there is hope.
Huckabee may improve national poll numbers, but he does not get you MI or PA. Or OH, CO, NM...
By the end of summer, money problems will be front and center (those of us with kids will be looking at fall tuition bills).
How about a top-drawer, well-respected sane fixer for the economy? Does such a person exist?
The problem with Huckabee is while he provides good defense of the core GOP states, he brings MASSIVE problems for the battleground states, most notably Michigan and Ohio/Pennsylvania. He brings some people into the fold in those states, but he sends even more Independents away from the GOP, whether that's to Obama, Barr, or just staying home.
That's lethal to a candidate in McCain who has to play a ton of offense to offset probable Obama gains like Colorado and Iowa.
Huckabee? He has stated (on youtube) that he supports a constitutional amendment that would ban the birth control pill (google huckabee, youtube, birth control). Game, set, match. When that becomes well-known, McCain will slip into McGovern/Mondale/Goldwater waters.
Might want to rejigger or link under that graph. The compression makes it hard to look at.
I'm a "lurker" who just wanted to say "Thanks!" for this website. I don't understand 30% of the statistical analysis you provide, but I appreciate the unvarnished view of the election. I always know I can receive "the truth and nothing but the truth" with my daily visits to your site. I have come to trust you far more than the mainstream media. THANKS!
No matter whom McCain picks to be his VP, will Obama or the media be able to ask the "heartbeat from the Presidency?" question without being accused of playing the age card? Huckabee certainly passes the likability test, but his views are so far outside of the mainstream that putting him a heartbeat away from the Presidency is a legitimate concern - if anyone is allowed to raise it.
It is good to see some sane interesting posts. I am sure the trolls will arrive soon though. It would be nice if some sort of moderation could be made avaiable here. The equivalent of security guards escorting disruptive protesters out of the McCain events.
haha, well said Jonker
To Anon@4:30pm,
Yeah, Huckabee said that. But wasn't it one Mr. Barack Obama who just said the other day that our American children should be learning Spanish? Hmmm, wonder if that serves as a harbinger to the fact that his policies of pandering to every minority group, Latinos in this case, will turn the Southwest and Rocky Mountains into Northern Mexico by the end of his first term because he refuses to take a stand for America's soveriegnty. Wait till those comments hit the mainstream airwaves. Huckabee's comments on birth control pills pale in comparison.
And to Charles, yes, Huckabee's views are out of the mainstream....mainstream radical liberals, who unfortunately make up a much bigger bloc than I'd like but are nowhere near representative of mainstream America, of which Huckabee is considered mainstream.
To Anon@4:30pm,
Yeah, Huckabee said that. But wasn't it one Mr. Barack Obama who just said the other day that our American children should be learning Spanish? Hmmm, wonder if that serves as a harbinger to the fact that his policies of pandering to every minority group, Latinos in this case, will turn the Southwest and Rocky Mountains into Northern Mexico by the end of his first term because he refuses to take a stand for America's soveriegnty. Wait till those comments hit the mainstream airwaves. Huckabee's comments on birth control pills pale in comparison.
And to Charles, yes, Huckabee's views are out of the mainstream....mainstream radical liberals, who unfortunately make up a much bigger bloc than I'd like but are nowhere near representative of mainstream America, of which Huckabee is considered mainstream.
@ Anon 5:01
I was being told by everyone I ran into (parents, teachers, etc.) back in grade school to learn spanish if only because so many people speak it. Heck my grandmother was telling me that just so I could get my McDonalds order correct (she said it not me). I don't see the controversy in Obama saying the same thing 20 years later.
Another anonymous person here to say to the previous anonymous person: Obama advocated for Americans to learn second languages, not for us to substitute Spanish for English or for us to become a bi-lingual society ala Canada. When students learn second languages their English skill becomes better as does their overall academic achievement. And they become more competitive in a global world where multiple language skills can be a great advantage. Only in this country can dimwitted people like the previous anonymous person twist what Obama actually said into some sort of open immigration argument. And only in this country can having more skill like a second language be considered bad.
I consider this a relatively good week for Obama. For whatever reason, the media have decided to test him, and he has done a very good job with his NYT piece yesterday and the speech today of hitting McCain on his "strongest" point, the war in Iraq. I think that even though Obama has now been characterized as a shrewd and calculating politician, he wins by demonstrating competence, understanding, and reason.
I am not surprised by McCain's support being soft. He was afterall a compromise choice. And many of those who are voting for him are doing it to save the Republic from Obama. I suspect that negative voters are by their nature softer supporters, reflecting perhaps some longing for someone else to come and save them.
Now while Hillary may yet wrest the nomination away from Obama (keep your guard up!) that will not happen to McCain, so those who hope for a McCain alternative will have to keep hoping.
But they will vote for McCain and Obama will make sure they will not stay home. And Borat will amke sure they do not vote for Bob Barr!
The Democrat primary results offer some insight. As I recall in many of the late states, after Reverend Wright re-defined perceptions of Obama, Mrs. Clinton tended to take the lion's share of late deciders.
The question you might ask, is why hasn't Obama closed the deal? It was a question Mrs. Clinton's people asked time and time again. McCrankey ain't much of a candidate and he is McBush after all.
Must be something wrong with that Obama feller!
Discuss!
I had already favored Huckabee in the VP thread (still unregistered ;-)), he brings enthusiasm and empathy. I wonder if his flat tax proposal, as hollow as it might seem, wouldn´t also touch a populist nerve, especially in Ohio. He would totally freeze the electoral map, no more chance to get Oregon, or New Hampshire or Michigan. But he would defend Bush´s states quite well - he won his primaries in Iowa and Virginia.
McCain/Huckabee would personify the kind of alliance that Bush could represent alone, republican establishment and evangelicals.
To the Anonymous who's arguing with the other Anonymous
Don't even get me started on Spanish speaking flap. Obama does not have a "force English speakers to accomodate foreigners" platform. It would be absurd to legislate such a thing. English is our national language and the language of international business, whether or not we make that official, and it's already critically important for people around the world to learn English to rise up in the professional world. That's plenty enough of a socio-economic factor for the immigrants without some sort of government sanction-- and all statistics on the subject bear this out -- (first generation immigrant English as Second Language speaking is low, but second and third generation immigrants can barely speak their original native tongue). But his comment was: "Don't worry about immigrants learning English, they'll learn English. Maybe you should worry about your children learning Spanish." is clear and sane advice that each family worry about raising their own children responsibly in this global economy and culture. This is like being in an uproar because someone tells you "Make sure your kid learns math, math is important." It's also akin to Jesse Jackson being mad that Obama told black dads to take responsibility for being fathers. It's not official legislation, but it is sound advice!
I imagine the Spanish comments and Huckabee's birth control comments will shock and appaul different segments of the population, but I think honestly the swing voters will care more about the latter.
To Anon@5:11
Oh if it were only that simple. I fully agree that learning a second language (of any kind) makes for a well-rounded education. But essential to be competitive in a global environment. I dare say less than 5% of jobs/careers are such that people entering into those field should be primed and ready to speak something else.
And he specifically suggested Spanish for obvious reasons. This country - significant portions of it anyway - is becoming Northern Mexico.
Look, you can spin what he said all you want because you're a homer in his corner of the ring. That's fine. But you and I both know what he said and why he said it, and I hope you are not so dimwitted as to not realize what's going on in this country.
It may be dimwitted to twist a seemingly innocuous statement into a totally different argument that may run contrary to what the speaker actually meant, but it's completely ludicrous, asinine, and ignorant to not realize to socio-economic and demographic realities this country faces in the futuer and how some politicians are pandering to that for their political gain.
There's your game, set, and match.
To Anon @ 511:
Obama ver specifically exhorted parents to make their kids speak Spanish. he later backtracked it into a general defense of learning another language. Recall he was also embrassed by Americans inability to speak the local language in Europe (he admitted he cannot speak another language -- must not have learned anything at Columbia: back in the day at least tow years of a foreign language was required there). Sounds elitist to me.
Ask any educator and they will tell you that the academic problem we have in the US has to do with the STEM disciplines. Language is a luxury when you are looking to be comeptitive in world markets. it won;t do you any good in our factories.
Comparing the learning of Spanish (which, if you already are fluent in one language - English - makes the learning of a second language completely vestigial) to the learning of math or being a responsible dad is the most absurd argument I think I've ever heard. Yes, it's good advice and works for some people, but it won't lead you to an inability to balance a checkbook or leave others suffering in a broken home.
Come on, now. Get real!
Any hope at all that this thread will get back on topic?
Charles said:
"No matter whom McCain picks to be his VP, will Obama or the media be able to ask the `heartbeat from the Presidency?' question without being accused of playing the age card?"
Most definitely! That question is ALWAYS asked and always appropriate!
By the way, this Michael has not previously posted in this thread...
First off, I think you all need to stop trying to get Mr. Kent to stop posting. Where else could I get such admusement for free!
Now in my day Spanish was the language to learn but now I would suggest Chinese. This is even more important if you want to work in a factory, since that is where they all are now.
I would like to point out that the first European language spoken in what is now Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, California, and Florida was Spanish, so its not like that language had not been spoken by many for a LONG time in those regionsof the US
Anonymous @ 5:01:
Obama, as far as I can tell, is not proposing that Spanish become an official second language; he's merely saying that it's a good idea to learn it.
For that matter: What exactly is wrong with learning Spanish as a second language?
Good (Anonymous who wrote to me)-- I wasn't saying they were of comparable importance, I was just saying it's good advice. So thanks for proving the point that Obama was just giving good advice to Americans that you can choose to take or not take.
(And sorry Eldertun, I'd love to get back on topic, what was it again?, I just can't help myself on the Spanish thing. Watched some Lou Dobbs specials on it and became enraged)
McCains campaign is poised to counter attack with charges of ageism in a heartbeat. But the appropriate question they include in this defense is fitness for the job. I think this needs to be answered. My observations of him on the campaign trail give grave doubts of his ability to handle the stress of the modern presidency.
He is a cancer patient with cardio-vascular disease, symptoms of severe mental defect, and has yet to show the mental or physical stamina for the rigors of the job. Until he can answer these questions, he is unfit for duty in my mind.
oh yeah! the topic was that more voters are hard for Obama. ok-- back on topic
"There is also risk – as soon as Obama picks Not Hillary Clinton as his VP, that unity gets its stiffest test since the primaries ended."
I think Obama's answer to this may be to make it seem as though Hillary Clinton played a major role in advising Obama's VP pick. If Obama were to choose Wesley Clark (him in particular, but anyone would work), he could say Clinton wasn't interested in the job but asked him to pick Clark and he did. It might have some of the same negative effect as choosing Hillary would, by making it seem as though she had a major role in his campaign, and will take some serious thought and research - but it may also be the best way to save him from a non-unity decline in the polls.
Sean, great assessment. The newly registered and ground game advantages for Barack make this even more interesting.
The Qunnipiac poll today showed 28% of McCain's support could still change their mind and only 18% for Barack.
It also showed Barack at 82% of Dem base support and 75% for McCain.
The real wild card in terms of final outcome to me is if Barack has a large poll lead going into election how many unenthusiastic McCain supporters stay home...
That could spell landslide with a capital "L"...
Sean,
Excellent analysis. And I say that because I,too, had noticed the similarity between the Newsweek and Pew polls. ;)
As always, the Pew Research analysis is the best around, I think. It makes very good reading and provides details I don't see in any other source.
One of the most striking was a graphic charting the correspondence between summer "enthusiasm" and November turnout in past elections. If the numbers hold (and I'm skeptical they will), the turnout will be overwhelming in November and if it comes close to what we're seeing, it's very likely to be a landslide that the pollsters aren't picking up.
I don't think the Obama +5 lead went anywhere.
When Rasmussen had it close, Quinnipiac was polling Obama +9. Gallup was hovering around +3 and +4.
Now ABC News says it's Obama +3 and CBS News says it's Obama +6.
Whatever!
SPLASH......Obama pulls anti-surge webpage......This could be it for him. Even computer illiterate McCain understands the importance of this action.
How desperate do you have to be to whitewash your own website.
Hard versus soft analysis is intriguing. Thanks
However, as usual - way too much much importance is being given to the VP part of the ticket. I'd guess at least half of Americans couldn't tell you what a VP does and the other half knows s/he does nothing.
Huckabee or Lieberman. I doubt it makes much difference. If McCain can't motivate voters, neither will the VP choice.
Nate and everyone else:
What methods do pollsters use to estimate turnout, other than a 1-to-1 correspondence between 2004 turnout (which we remember was depressed most notably in Ohio, with the "mysterious" 12-hour lines in the rain in majority-black districts causing many voters to ultimately give up and go home)?
Specifically to jsh1120 (though anyone should feel free to answer):
What would an "overwhelming" turnout consist of? General election turnout is usually a bit more than 50% of theoretically eligible voters. Do we consider 55% to be "overwhelming"? 57%? 60%? Frankly, all those percentages would be considered truly pathetic in European countries, for example. And I can't see any of them as overwhelming, unless we get a "mysterious" lack of voting booths and ballots again, so that the election officials can claim to have been "overwhelmed"...
Pete Kent:
"I am not surprised by McCain's support being soft. He was afterall a compromise choice. And many of those who are voting for him are doing it to save the Republic from Obama. I suspect that negative voters are by their nature softer supporters, reflecting perhaps some longing for someone else to come and save them.
...
But they will vote for McCain and Obama will make sure they will not stay home. And Borat will make sure they do not vote for Bob Barr!"
Yeah, because that's exactly what "soft support" means. In the immortal words of Moynihan, "everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." If you have to start by saying that the data mean the opposite of what they say, you don't have much of an argument.
"Now while Hillary may yet wrest the nomination away from Obama (keep your guard up!) that will not happen to McCain, so those who hope for a McCain alternative will have to keep hoping."
Is that what they're fantasizing about in Republican circles these days? While the fact that Democratic nomination processes are more small-d democratic may contribute to that fantasy, the fact that Republican processes are more top-down leads to correspondingly baseless speculation on liberal sites that McCain's nomination is a fakeout, and the powers that be will replace him with a stronger candidate at the convention. (Personally, I think both theories are way out in left field.)
to anon@5:56,
The ABC/Post poll is of likely voters; the CBS/Times poll is of registered voters.
The ABC/Post poll is actually 50-42 Obama among registered voters.
On the other hand, the Quinnipiac poll this morning, which was of likely voters, had Obama up 50-41.
In other words, a lot depends on how you define "Likely Voter".
Enjoy the All Star Game!
Talk to you all on Wednesday . . .
@Anon 5:23:
Why is it a problem now? Was it a problem when Italians came here who couldn't speak English? Surely you know of someone's Italian grandmother who doesn't speak English, right? What did their children do? They learned English and integrated themselves into the culture. What makes you think that if there were a reasonable way for hard-working Mexican immigrants to find their way into the country, that the next generation wouldn't speak English and integrate themselves into the culture? When has this ever been a bad thing? Is it a coincidence that it's only a problem when those people are brown-skinned?
This country is no more becoming Northern Mexico than it's been Western Poland, Western Ireland, or Western Italy, or becoming Eastern China. They want to come here to be a part of America. Give us your poor, your huddled masses yearning to be free, etc. When did this supposed core of patriotic Americans stop believing in the basic things that make our country great? And how do they ever get to imply that the other guy's not patriotic?
@Jack-be:
Ooooh, he updated his website.. with new facts... How dare he? Doesn't he know that everyone has to follow Bush and Republican policy of truthiness, believe what you want and continue doing that no matter what the facts say. The Surge (and lots of other factors) HAVE reduced violence, so lets get out of Iraq while we can.
Sorry to go off topic, but was bored so thought I'll reply.
Jim S. The rhetorical questions in your first paragraph are right on, but not even hypothetical-- they're just facts.
whether for
first generation immigrants or
later generations
the fact is that today's immigrants are learning English. We can choose whether or not to learn their languages, but they really don't have a choice, it's assimilate or get left behind.
jim s.:
Anti-immigrant bigotry is nothing new. Every wave of non-British immigrants faced prejudice, including the Germans in the late 18th century, the Irish after the Potato Famine, the Chinese during the California Gold Rush, the Slavs, Jews, and Southern Europeans (Italians, Greeks, et al.) in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, and needless to say, the Japanese. And as you and others have explained, each wave of immigration has successfully integrated into the American people. Indeed, it is no different today for the Latinos, Caribbeans, and Chinese than it was for the Germans, Irish, Jews, Italians, and Poles of yesteryear.
Nate and Sean, how about if some of us regular readers volunteered to help moderate the comments on you wonderful articles.
I'm sure I'm not the only who has ben frustrated by partisan off-topic posting, which should really belong on a forum (which may be what is needed).
I really wouldn't mind chipping in, (how would others feel?) as 538 is one of the few websites where I used to peruse through the comments section thoroughly.
What do you guys, and other regulars think of this suggestion?
(And yes, I am painfully aware of just how off-topic this very comment is, but something has to be done!)
Survey USA polls- Dole +12, Perdue +1, and McCain +5 in NC
MN- Coleman +13 in one-on-one matchup with Franken
Hillary will not win the nomination even if most of the Delegates think she is the stronger candidate.
It is just too late.
Clinton has wound up her campaign team. Obama now has the best of them & most of her money raisers.
Hillary now has no organisation, no game plan, no volenteers. Nothing.
The only whay she could have a chance is if she could take over Obama's campaign intact. That will only happen if Obama is shot, photographed having sex with a gnu or something equaly unlikely.
What won't happen is the Delegates changing their minds on the strength of the polls. They are all loyal to the Party, and most are profesional & experienced. They know as well as I do that it is not a candidate that wins but a campaign team. Hillary never had a particularly good one, and now she has nothing.
Pete Kent: (he admitted he cannot speak another language
He did? Are you sure he didn't say he couldn't speak Spanish? I coulda sworn he spoke pretty good Bahasa.
Barack Obama does indeed speak Indonesian (Bahasa)
Nick: You probably mean Bahasa Indonesia - Bahasa just means language in Malay.
On the issue, I think you are right. I don't believe that public Indonesian schools were teaching in English some 40 years ago, so he should have learned quite some Bahasa Inonesia there (he will probably also know a few Sundanese words, which is the local language in West Java / Jakarta).
The NY Times poll says Obama gets 37% of the white vote and McCain gets 46%. It also says that only 30% of whites have a favorable opinion of Obama. I find these results low. Only 30% of whites like Obama??? And only 24% of whites like Michelle Obama. All these numbers seem awfully low, even though Obama still has a +6 advantage overall. Someone explain??
my advice for the GOP: dump McCain just before the convention. Run Huck, and for number two, pick some economist.
anonymous said:
MN- Coleman +13 in one-on-one matchup with Franken
And Rassmussen has Franken up by 2, right?
Anything in their methodology or the questions they ask that would account for this?
...Comparing the learning of Spanish (which, if you already are fluent in one language - English - makes the learning of a second language completely vestigial)...
Only if you, you know, never travel, need to speak with someone who only speaks a non-English language, or have never wondered why language is the way it is.
Mason, you dumb*ss!
You just described about 90% of Americans - they don't travel (overseas, that is), they rarely are in need of speaking to people who only speak a non-English language, and most don't care about language origin.
Get a clue.
Mason, you dumb*ss!
You just described about 90% of Americans - they don't travel (overseas, that is), they rarely are in need of speaking to people who only speak a non-English language, and most don't care about language origin.
Get a clue.
This is the best website out there for real good information about the polls. I visit every day though I admit half of it goes over my fairly educated head. The comments need to be reviewed and purged. Or a thread needs to be opened each day for those who have nothing better to do but to clutter up the site. How about a, "I heard he is a Muslim" please comment in Spanish or Malay or some other language option so the rest of us can read the real comments. Freedom of Speech should not mean the freedom to make an idiot of yourself over and over again. this is a great website, fantastic, the best, now go to some other place to comment on your nonsense or open a thread and just prattle in that so we can read.
"What would an "overwhelming" turnout consist of? General election turnout is usually a bit more than 50% of theoretically eligible voters. Do we consider 55% to be "overwhelming"? 57%? 60%? Frankly, all those percentages would be considered truly pathetic in European countries, for example."
Electoral boards hire poll workers, set up machines and establish procedures based on expected turnout. If you're expecting a 5% turnout in a 2000 voter precinct, you get 4 or 5 workers, 4 machines (tell them to only set up 2), and use the opportunity to test alternate procedures. If you expect a 60% turnout, you get 10-12 workers, set up all 4 machines, and just concentrate on keeping your head above water. But if you expect 60% and you get 70%, you now have an hour-long line all day.
Annon-
You're the fool and clearly not a home owner. Try talking to a (legal or illegal)Hispanic sub-contractor/laborer/gardener/maid in only English and see what you get. Then try it in English and Spanish. Better yet, try supervising those workers, or treating them as patients. I guarentee you'll get your desired result or information a lot quicker with the latter than the former. Being able to quickly and efficiently communicate with people is important. Many US companies get this. Go down to your local Lowes or Home Depot and take a look around. It might take a little bit for your eyes to adjust to it, but you'll see it: Spanish. Everywhere. It will be in the same typeface as the English and about two points smaller, but it will be omnipresent, because the people who run those places know the linguistic abilities of the people who spend the money in the stores.
And 90%? I laugh at your made up stat. Nearly everyone in the south-west finds themself in the situation I've discribed above once or twice a year, and much, much, more if they're in certain field and/or performing certain tasks. That would be a region including CA and TX, which account for about 20% of the US pop alone. Add to that the people who do travel (~20% judging by passport figures) and vastly underestimating the utility of bilinguality to the US population.
On topic: I agree with the Huckabee VP assesment, and like someone suggested, I don't think Huckabee's positions are as outside the mainstream as assumed many times. People who blog for hours a day, political pundits, media types, Beltway types, academics, etc. need to get out into 'flyover country' more or they would know this.
About the language issue: Mason, when I read your last post it made the opposite point to me than what you intended to make.
Your post pointed out the fact that Hispanic sub-contractors/laborer/gardeners/maids/half of the patients in hospital emergency rooms/thousands of students, etc. are not assimilating.
They are not learning English like immigrants in the past have done. They don’t have to. They expect us to learn Spanish if we want to communicate with them. Our government and businesses and schools are enabling Hispanic immigrants not to have to learn English.
The historic strength and prosperity of the United States was born of the idea communicated by E Pluribus Unum, many uniting into one. Out of many, one. The beauty of American culture is Unity in Diversity. Hundreds of cultures have come together and have been transformed into one uniquely American culture - with one common language.
Being bi-lingual is a worthy goal for any individual but we must absolutely fight to keep one common language if we are to remain E Pluribus Unum, and the greatest nation on earth.
Nobody has mentioned the real problem with Huckabee. His foreign policy proposals are as naive and ignorant as Obama's-- if McCain is to push his edge in national security, it can only hurt to have a VP who is saying the same silly things as his opponent.
I think because the Republicans were pretty divided during the primaries, allowing McCain to win, and the Democrats who fought it out until the end, that this election cycle, the VP matters quite a lot. If you did not vote for your parties nominee, and are disappointed or angry, then you are waiting to see who he picks as his VP.
I think Huckabee would be a great VP. During the primaries, as the voters got to know him, they liked him better and better. But because he did not have the money, he was not able to do enough commercials and mail flyers to get his policy points across. I think Huckabee is pretty main stream on his religious beliefs. He did not govern Arkansas as a religious kook. He did, however, work across party lines, in an all democratic state, to get the tough stuff done for the people of his state. He was a governor for the people. He stands by his convictions and does what he thinks is right, not what the establishment is telling him to do. Huckabee is also forward thinking. He talked about kitchen table issues long before any other Republican would say that the economy was bad. He talked about being energy independent within 10 years as we were paying the terrorist every time we filled up at the pump. He said that we should work on infrastructure instead of giving out rebate checks as we were helping the Chinese economy by borrowing from them and purchasing their products. Huckabee helps McCain on the economic issues, helps in states like MI, OH, PA, VA, IA because he connects with the voters who are struggling with the economy.
on the democratic side, I like Rendell and Bayh for VP.
John Peterson said...
Nobody has mentioned the real problem with Huckabee. His foreign policy proposals are... naive and ignorant...
Naive like 'we'll be greated as liberators?'
or ignorant like 'Iran (Shia) is training Al-Quaida (Sunni)'?
If so, you are right, he'd definitely lose - people need a leader who won't make such elementary mistakes.
Several of the bloggers here have said that Huckabee can't carry key swing states such as PA, OH, CO, NM, OR, NH, VA, MI, or IA.
HE CAN!
How do I know? Survey USA took a series of polls to determine the VP candidate (out of Huckabee, Lieberman, Pawlenty, and Romney) who would help John McCain the most. They took polls in 5 out of the 9 states I listed above. Here are the results:
PA -
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=162d4baa-59af-4ec5-9d9b-eb6e658e86c5
OH -
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b03c08ab-30b9-463d-8be2-5cb118e05b74
OR -
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=163a037f-756a-4c51-9e4a-cd6e48aa0f44
VA -
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=9901f8fc-034e-4a1d-ab36-f6e5c918614e
IA -
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=34d61abd-3c0a-441c-b337-262ffcf3489a
In every case listed here, Huckabee did best (except VA, where he was practically tied with Romney.)
But the pattern doesn't end there. Altogether, SurveryUSA took polls in the following states: PA, NM, VA, CA, OH, IA, KS, WI, NE, OR, NY, MA, MN, AL, KY, and MO. In almost every case Huckabee did best!!!
Besides the SurveyUSA polls, there are other strategic reasons that Huckabee would be good for McCain.
There have been five bellwether states - OH, MO, LA, KY, and AR - that have correctly predicted the winner of the General Election for each of the past eight elections (dating back to 1976). In the GOP Primaries, Huckabee won the popular vote in two of them (AR and LA), coming in second to McCain in the other three. McCain won the popular vote in three of them (OH, MO and KY), coming in second to Huckabee in the other two. The margin between the two in the state of MO was extremely narrow. And in the state of KY, Huckabee even managed to come in second to John McCain three and a half months after he suspended his campaign and endorsed McCain.
If put on the same ticket, their combined popularity in these five states would be a great advantage for Senator McCain.
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