Rasmussen has a new poll out in Ohio where they show John McCain with what they headline as a "modest lead". Actually, McCain's lead is 6 points, and 10 including leaners, which I would probably describe as a little bit more than modest. This comes on the heels of a PPP poll released just yesterday that had shown Obama with a not-so-modest lead of 8 points.
So, what the hell is going on here? Is this the party identification issue again -- PPP tending to identify more Democrats in its sample than Rasmussen?
Only up to a point. Neither pollster lists their party ID figures explicitly, but from what best I can tell, Rasmussen has the numbers at about 36/43/21 (Republican/Democrat/Independent) and PPP at 32/44/24. The party ID advantage accounts for about 4 points' worth of difference. For instance, if you took PPP's internals and weighted them as Rasmussen does by Rasmussen's party ID numbers, Obama would hold a 4-point lead rather than 8. That's still pretty significantly different from McCain leading by 10 points.
What else accounts for the differences between the two polls? Rasmussen initially permits one to select a third-party candidate -- and 7 percent of voters do -- whereas PPP does not. But then they push voters who have picked a third-party candidate toward one of the major-party candidate with a standard "who are you leaning toward?" question -- and most of those leaners wind up with McCain. So it's possible that you have a number of fairly conservative voters who are dissatisfied with John McCain and are flirting with the idea of voting for Bob Barr -- but will gravitate back toward McCain in the end.
The polls were also conducted at different times; all of Rasmussen's interviews were conducted Monday whereas PPP's were conducted Thursday through Sunday. The conventional wisdom has been -- and frankly, my assumption has been -- that Obama would get a little bit of a bounce out of his Iraq trip. This would directly contradict that, although I think we'll need to see quite a bit more evidence before we can reach a firm conclusion.
7.22.2008
Dueling Ohio Polls
@ 1:11 PM
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rasmussen is incorrect period.There is no way McCain could be 10 points in Ohio
The "Gas Ad' addressing domestic concerns vs. Obama doing a foreign trip shows how politics is really shaping up this year.
It is about the economy and that's it. McCain's ad is one of the best I have ever seen and he is plastering Ohio, PA, N.H. and other swing states with great affect. When they look back at this time in the campaign Obama's overseas trip will be viewed as a mistake. A Big One
I don't think anything as simple as an ad can "shift" opinion that much. But it may be that with McCain sticking to economic policy messages while Obama has been stick to foreign policy messages (no matter how convincing either one is) over the past two weeks, it's "advantage McCain" -- at least until Obama returns and moves back to the central economic issues.
Further, while I would rule out "thumb on the scale" bias by the pollster(s), we still have to keep sampling error into account -- even if party ID were used to weight or adjust the results.
As someone that grew up in great state of Ohio..The Dems need to hammer home that McCain voted for NAFTA and they should be able to "turn out the lights..the party's over..."
Anon: not only did McCain vote for NAFTA but he's still touting the free trade mantra.
I am highly skeptical of any poll in which all the interviews are conducted in one day as this Rasmussen was. That's a easy was to get funky sample even if they do weight it appropriately.
Does that mean it's definitely wrong? - not necessarily. But it should be take with a grain of salt until other polls can confirm or refute that kind shift.
Something tells me an ad (the "Gas Ad") released less than 24 hours ago isn't responsible for an 18 point swing in Ohio in one day but that's just me.
What this election is showing is that the pollsters have no idea how to model this election. One's results depend entirely on methodology. McCain up 10 in Ohio, but only up 5 in AK and 11 in Georgia. I think both sides of the aisle can agree that if McCain wins OH by 10 he will certainly win GA by more than that.
I live in Ohio and you must realize:
1. People want to drill for more oil.
2. Hillary was popular here.
3. People do not trust Obama.
If you guys were smart and picked Hillary, you guys would've won this state by 10 points. But you picked Obama, and made this race a barn burner!
Here's my take from my Conservative Youngstown, OH blog, recently noted in the Toledo Free Press!!!
McCain Opens up a Lead in Ohio
Regarding one-day polls, I agree with the previous pollster: If you're doing an "overnight poll," or any other poll in which there no callbacks, you are very much at the mercy of who may be home right then and there. For one thing, there's a big chance that the poll is skewed toward older people and toward "stay at home" people.
I too think the overseas trip has been a big loser for Obama. Even my Dem coleagues talk about how cocky he is winning 80% of the vote in Germany and England. Iraq says what we all knew, things are improving and its probably time to pull back. Maliki endorsed Obama and that does not sit well with a lot of people, especially since he was somewhat saying the opposite a couple months ago. Foreigners meddling in American politics is a bad sign for a candidate. That Obama can win in France and Germany can and probably will cost him votes here at home. These socialist nations backed Kerry in much the same way, although with less fanfair and his American ratings went down.
The real answer probably lies somewhere between the PPP and Ras poll. Until another outfit like Qpac releases a poll, we won't know which one was the outlier.
Also the Gallup tracking poll +6 to Obama was an outlier, back to +3 today, where it has been pretty consistently. I just wish Obama would keep campaigning for the Iraqi vote. His leads will keep crumbling.
I hope McCain keeps up the "Gas AD" as it clearly displays McCain incompetence and flip flopping on economic issues. Americans know that drilling will accomplish nothing for years. McCain himself said this before flip flopping.
Voters did not trust McCain as his policies are driven by Big Oil who gives him big checks.
People do not trust McCain.
I think it's a little presumptuous to say Obama going abroad was a mistake. Even if it does cost him in the polls now, it's only July and come November and will surely alleviate some concerns among voters.
Higgly, I think you're reading things too broadly. I argued that in the short term (the past two weeks), McCain has basically been on an economic message while Obama has been on a foreign policy message. And that can have short term effects on the polling.
But that's far from arguing that it's a mistake for Obama to make this trip, especially in light of how this has unfolded. It's a long campaign, and Obama had no real choice but to make this trip, and to make the most of it. It's could seriously undercut the foreign policy leadership differential that had favored McCain.
But the campaign is going to turn to domestic issues: health care, tax policy, and trade. And on those issues, it's hard to argue that McCain's record will favor him with most voters. So the GOP will again try to turn the discussion to off-axis issues: "values" as they try to define them.
As a die-hard 'Pub, this is encouraging news. But, I don't believe it, just like I don't believe PPP's poll either. I like Rasmussen, and I think he is a good pollster. I usually consider his numbers 2-4 percent tilted to the the GOP, and maybe 4-6 points if Obama motivates the morons. Ohio is a humiliating place ... I lived in suburban Columbus for 20 years. I think suburban Ohio is really, really up for grabs, but is slowly meandering Democratic. I KNOW the conservative base there is pretty unhappy with McCain. I hear it every Sunday from my folks. In the end, I do think they will come home to McCain, but this does *NOT* mean the state is leaning Republican. As I have said time and again, this is a state where you make your own destiny, rather than poll your own destiny.
For other posters: @ Jack, you are correct. Anon @ 12:27, you are correct. Anon @ 12:18, you are correct.
What's with all the concern trolls on this site lately?
I would discount the PPP poll, because it is a Dem. poll. They have no incentive to release all polls, but Rasmussen does. We can't know if the PPP poll is an outlier because they won't release other polls of Ohio that look bad for Obama. Rasmussen, though, we can assess as an outlier or not, as Rasmussen will presumably poll Ohio again in the future. I trust Rasmussen much more than any party-based poll (same goes for R-polls as well, not just D-polls).
When I used to work on campaigns, we would release internal polls showing positives for our candidate if we knew an objective poll would be coming out soon with bad news. It was preemptory. This could be the case here.
On the gas ad:
It's an unbelievable ad. It blames Obama for high gas prices, without giving any evidence of things he's done to raise gas prices. It's the whole "repeat it enough times" sort. People need to get the message that off-shore drilling isn't going to do anything to the price of gas for a decade or two, and it'll be a tiny effect when the oil does start flowing.
We'll see the real debate on energy policy in September/October.
I seem to recall you had questioned whether or not to use in-house polls. Did you decide to include party polls, but exclude direct-from-the-campaign polls? I might think about excluding any party or campaign in-house poll in large states like Ohio that will have lots of data. Dem or GOP polling organizations should be ignored unless they are polling states with a paucity of data.
Basically, we get one day of polling during his trip, which isn't over, and some claim it's a failure? Huh?
I would think being a FTE fan you'd at least try not to fit such thin, spurious evidence into your speculations.
I guess I should take the PPP poll, which was also done during the trip, as evidence that it's a success? Using your logic, of course.
Obama always goes up over the weekends. THen it comes back down during the week. Gallup continues to say TODAY that the race is pretty much where it has been for a while. THey see no great movement; this is all within the MoE.
As for anecdotal observations about what your friends/colleagues say, that isn't evidence. Most of the people I know will vote for Obama, with no reservations, and think this trip is a good idea. I can also tell you about my Grandmother in Law, a republican from Mississippi, who is voting for Obama because she thinks that McSame will cause WWIII.
That isn't statistical evidence. Those are stories that tell me nothing about what is going on with these two very divergent polls.
Crying crying...you liberals and socialists can only cry...in Italy it's the same...you have all the medias in your side and lost everytime...
seriously i think obama can do better in Colorado...at 5.00 eastern will be a Rasmussen poll...will see...
A Kos thread on this has the internals of the Rasmussen poll and they're really screwy - McCain actually leads among women by a point or two and leads among independents by 23! Methinks this is a bit of an outlier from a usually reliable pollster.
Oh Christ: there's a whale of a difference between a leaked "internal poll" and a "public poll." Nate has shied away from all of the former, but he "admits" the latter even if some pollsters have clients that come predominantly from one party or the other.
And keep in mind that nobody is doing polls just for fun. They're all for profit (well maybe not Pew). So you can't just throw away polls selectively on the basis of who the clients were.
Hey, anon at 12:40. Who's crying?
It is a discussion about POLLING, what is good, what isn't...
Nothing more and nothing less.
If anyone is acting like a churlish child, that would be you.
Rhode Island X:
You are a tool to the nth degree and are perpetuating the biggest lie out there right now. I just opined on the other thread about the subject and will try and give you the abc's of market prices.
Markets are priced on supply and demand. It's based on the current balance as well as the perceived balance in the future. We're seeing high gas prices now because demand has outpaced supply, although there are now significant efforts to reduce consumption and conserve.
Just because it will take 7-10 years or more to actually develop and drill in those "new" areas doesn't mean we won't see some relief TODAY. If we continue a path towards radical conservation in addition to INCREASING supplies, the market will "perceive" that we will need to price TODAY's supplies lower to efficiently use oil since more production will be added down the road.
It's no different than other commodities. Take corn for instance. Corn being traded in July or August has been known to drop precipitously in price. Why is that? It's still just corn harvested from the previous November or December. And the next harvest isn't for another 4+ months. It's because there might be news that the current crop will be a bumper one and greatly boost the harvest (future supplies). Now, it's still 4+ months away, but IT DOES impact TODAY's prices.
I wish you idiots would get a clue and quit perpetuating lies.
What is interesting is that Ras had McCain up at least since February. If Ras consistently finds a McCain lead, while all other pollsters don't, there must be a methodological bias somewhere.
you are right...some people are discussing about polling...but others are crying...my previous post was a provocation...
Italian Conservative from Rome.
Nate,
Consider having some of the regulars moderate the comments. Wading through the trolls and talking points has become a chore.
@ yad D,
That doesn't make Rasmussen wrong, it is just a different way of handling the data. Somebody is going to be right, and somebody is going to be wrong if they have different predictions in early November. The last few Presidential cycles, Rasmussen has been pretty good. Not perfect, but decent. Does this constitute bias? I think not. I will also state that I don't think he is accounting for an "Obama Surge" of new voters (*cough* Morons *cough*). They may very well show up, and his polling would least well account for that affect.
Die-Hard 'Pub
If we've learned anything this year its that polling is an imperfect art form. This ten point result shouldn't be taken seriously and Scott Rasmussen knows it. Anyone around the business as long as he recognizes bad polling when he see's it. I'd be surprised if he doesen't re poll it in the next week. Maybe McCain is uo 5-6, thats at least believable. We haven't even seen a 10 point number out of Florida. A ten point Ohio win would be a 5 point Pennsylvania win and a 2-3 point Michigan win. theres no evidence to support that right now.
Time for my usual riff as of late:
Because it seems that the June Rasmussen number was without leaners, what's happened is that Ras has shown a McCain +1 to McCain +6. That's the way Rasmussen itself reports it; it's not the way RCP or 538 will show it; they will show it going from +1 to +10; nearly twice the movement that actually occurred.
PPP goes from Obama +11 to Obama +8 over a very similar time frame.
So both pollsters show a consistent change; a net loss of about 4 points for Obama in Ohio over the last month.
There's pretty clearly a methodology-induced difference between the two pollsters in Ohio. But I don't think there's any significant difference in the movement shown by each.
Yad D: I seriously doubt there's a political bias to Rasmussen polls.
But as has been discussed before on 538 and elsewhere, it's possible that Rasmussen's weighting of poll results by party ID imparts a "conservative" bias to the results. I use "conservative" in the sense that it imparts a bias in favor of the "historical" or "past" party preferences of a state or the nation. Sometimes that is going to play in favor of the Democrats and sometimes in favor of the Republicans, because the method used will tend to underemphasize or ignore recent shifts in party ID.
I'm pretty sure that Rasmussen weights by party ID just to provide more stable results in repeated polls in a state. But because numerous national polls have shown a shift toward the Democrats (or away from the GOP) in the last couple of years, a fact that Rasmussen's weighting doesn't take into account, the net result is that while obtaining more stable results Rasmussen also obtains results that are more favorable to the Republicans.
The two conflicting post are interesting, but I think the rasmussen poll might be the outliner. If you look at the OH average according to realclearpolitics. McCain gaining a 10% lead compared to older polls such as PPP (Obama with 8% lead), SurveyUSA (Obama with 2% lead), Quinnipac (Obama with 6% lead) seems odd. Also, Rasmussen always shows a lead for McCain
Actaully, Nate, those do not appear to be rasmussen's weighting numbers. According to This article's last paragraph, they're aiming for 41.4% Democrat, 31.5% Republican, and 27.1% unaffiliated (you listed 43/36/21). I'm not sure how that changes your assessment.
FWIW, I believe Rasmussen has been shown to be slightly biased conservative.
Nate, just curious: why did you go back to the "poblano" moniker for this post?
All this drilling talk is nonsense. The Bush administrations own people say that drilling offshore will have a 1-2% impart on oil prices in 10 years. Yes there will be a psychological impact in the first couple weeks after the bann is lifted, buts thats for a couple weeks.
My brother lives in Canada and they Drill everywhere and export most of their oil to us here in the US. And guess what, they pay more than we do for gas, and they're swimming in the stuff. More oil doesen't mean lower prices. China and India will scoop up any excess in no time.
The only alternative is to move away from oil. We better get started soon because we are only delaying the pain.
Newly released ARG polls:
http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/
Florida:
McCain 47%, Obama 45%, Undecided 7%
New Hampshire
Obama 47%, McCain 45%, Undecided 8%
Both of these polls show a 4% decline for Obama, and better numbers for McCain.
Us Obama supporters should be very nervous...
:-(
Anon @ 15:54,
We are in agreement. Look at Rasmussen's poll from 7/10 in MI: +8 Obama. There aren't recent Rasmussen polls from PA or IN. I know that IN might not be a nearest neighbor based upon Nate's analysis, but it isn't a bad measure of parts of western Ohio. If Obama is +8 in MI, McCain can't be +10 in OH. If the +8 MI is correct, I figure +2 to +4 Obama in OH.
Die-Hard 'Pub
I'd be willing to bed statistical noise pushes both of these polls further out, but at the end of the day you've got to agree with Rasmussen over PPP... Rasmussen has been a dead on poller for the last 5 presidential elections.
I'm concerned about the FL numbers from ARG, but not the NH numbers, on account of every other pollster (well, UNH and Ras) having NH moving towards Obama. Of course, we're due for another NH poll by Rasmussen sometime soon.
Dear IHateDouchebags:
Please try to keep things civil. You'll notice I'm not insulting you.
Offshore drilling, even when peaking, will barely effect the price of oil at the pump, because we're talking about a global market. First, we need the oil companies to drill the deeper sea areas they have leased. They want to drill the shallower areas because they're more profitable--but that's too bad for them. They should have to finish dinner before they get their dessert.
The near-shore stuff is more dangerous. A spill caused by accident or hurricane could be catastrophic for beaches and local tourism, nevermind the environment. That's not to say it shouldn't be drilled--it should be considered AFTER resources are deployed to the less risky areas.
When it comes to supply/demand, we'll need real change, and more drilling won't make the difference we need. We need to heavily invest in efficient mass transit (subways, trains), alternative energy research and infrastructure (wind, solar, and maybe even nuclear). And we need politicians who are strong and honest leaders. People who tell us that high oil prices are here to stay until we have sufficient alternatives, and launch a meaningful initiative toward energy independence. What we don't need? McCain blaming Obama, a senator who has highly questionable control over oil prices, on $4 a gallon and rising. I think President Bush has had greater influence over oil prices than Senator Obama; no? And perhaps the Republican majority in Congress that dominated for nearly the first 6 years of the Bush Presidency could have better prepared for this, too...
Scott, I was looking for you a couple threads below.
1. Pollster archive of past national results, including Rasmussen is at
http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/08-us-pres-ge-mvo.php
2. I think I guess what's going on.
It's not, of course, that Rasmussen has sinisterly hidden his previous leaner-included results. Rather, he started to pull out a new set of questions, including the leaning question.
If so, what he publishes as top result, and what RCP and 538 report, is in some sense "the same thing", namely "the best available result from Rasmussen". Leaner-included is now the correct number to include from Rasmussen for individual State averages.
However, this creates a misleading bias for trend estimation. But what is Nate to do? If he were to stick to Leaner-excluded figures, he would at some point begin to lose a trend-estimation sensitivity arising from the comparison, come September/October, of more recent leaner-included results. Now, you don't want to change your methodology in October, the readers wouldn't like it. so better absorb the pain now.
The purest solution - have the supertracker work with two separate variables, one for pre-July Rasmussen State, one for post-July Rasmussen State - has something goin for it, but it is a frightening loss of information. It means, for instance, that right now, since the new July numbers are singletons without comparables, they will not feed into the supertracker at all.
And, after all, pollsters do change methodologies all the time without telling us. We have no choice but treating a "pollster" as a unit, even when this becomes a bit fictional.
Anyway, the impact on the supertracker is probably small. the impact on the Ohio perception is huge - but only the perception, not the reality.
Sugerfunk,
Nervous? I shouldn't think so. So he lost some of his bounce? Big deal, he still leads. At this point, the race is a close one, but Obama clearly has the upper-hand. McCain can't seem to break out of the 41-45% support range, and Obama can. Of course, I'd like you to think you are so far ahead there is no need to work hard, but it just isn't the case, at least yet. Yes, the polls are tightening. MI and PA will probably show that when those polls come out, but I don't think you will see many with McCain leading in these states, Rasmussen not withstanding.
Die-Hard 'Pub
Run your computer Nate for good times sake. Us Conservatives are loving the past 2 weeks of polls.
I will make it clear right now: Had you guys picked Hillary, the GOP would be getting destroyed right now. But you guys did the GOP a favor and picked OBAMA.... Too many people are saying NOBAMA right now!
All this talk of Ohio, I believe this poll to be off a little but i don't believe it will matter in the end. Ohio will take on lesser significance this year. As long as Barack wins Michigan he can lose Ohio and get to 270 fairly easily. An Ohio win would seal the deal however I thin Virginia and Colorado will be as important. Ohio is much like Florida in that the democrats always have a shot and always seem to lose it.
This election will be close and it will probably be won on the ground. Obama is favored in a war of attrition.
Most of us Obama supporters always knew Ohio would be tough to win. After all, it is the one state that McCain needs to have any breathing room. Fortunately, there are numerous alternate paths to 270 that are very much possible, but gee whiz, Ohio sure would make things easy!
I'm hoping Obama takes the cue from the SUSA VP poll for Ohio and picks Edwards then plants him in southern Ohio for a couple of weeks.
Sugerfunk, I don't think ARG polls make anyone nervous or happy. ARG polls just seem like a random number generator made them. ;-)
I guess I should not try to speak for others. I'll just say I just chuckle at ARG polls no matter what they say.
Yes, the polls are tightening. MI and PA will probably show that when those polls come out, but I don't think you will see many with McCain leading in these states, Rasmussen not withstanding.
Except Ras has MI and PA trending a bit towards Obama. The MI and OH results, taken together, are about as bizarre as the Ras and PPP polls of OH taken together, since they're both the most comparable state to each other demographically (using Nate's state similiarity scores)-- yet they're moving at the same rate in opposite directions.
Rhode Island X:
Truce. Good comments. The focus does need to be on energy independence and renewable fuels.
And we do need honest leaders/politicians.
The energy issues is hardly one that arose in the last 6 years under Bush and a Repub Congress, though. It's been brewing for decades but just reared its ugly head of late.
We should have been preparing 40 years ago for this. But it's hard to stop the proverbial freight train when it's running on 99 cents/gallon gasoline.
Tulle,
why laugh at ARG polls just because they show McCain catching up? Nate has ARG at a higher ranking than Gallup, so what do you hae to say to that!
Coming on the heels of yesterday's weak polling for Obama in MI, the Ras OH poll offers encouragement to the McCain camp. You can discount PPP to a degree b/c it is a self-identified Democrat pollster. While Ras may have an ideological tilt, he seems to have played it pretty much straight up.
What should encourage McCain the most is that leaners and undecideds move to him in consistently big numbers, repeating the pattern of the primaries where late deciders flocked to HRC. I think Obama's liberalism coupled with the rest of the baggage associated with his candidacy puts a ceiling on what he can accomplish electorally.
It is puzzling that the trip is not having a better impact for him. Even Gallup has returned to normal and Ras shows a tie. This despite the seeming Maliki endorsement of Obama's position on Iraq. Still, we may have to wait a day for that to percolate.
As was noted by another poster, there may be something of a backlash if Maliki is seen as meddling in our election. In truth, I think he is only trying to enhance his own political standing while betting on the favorite in our contest.
As Ras has been reporting the public seems convinced that the media favors Obama. That will not play well in places like OH and other states with independent-minded streaks where people don't like being told how to vote. A problem the Obama campaign has faced all along with its whispered innuendoes that voting for McCain is tantamount to racism.
Those kind of cultural cross-currents can trump even perceived foreign policy successes in conservative-leaning states like Ohio that in two man contests have been dependably Republican.
Then there remains the seminal domestic issue: drilling. It is the wedge issue of the election and it cuts badly for Obama and his party in general. Nobel laureate and Academy Award Winner Al Gore laid a big egg with his green pronouncements the other day, further distancing his party from popular sentiment. The “Green” convention is Denver should be good for a few dismissive laughs as well, especially when it is followed by Obama’s modern-day Nuremberg rally at Invesco field.
Obama has had an extraordinary run of luck with Iraq and made two baskets in Afghanistan. Now he must finesse Jordan and Israel in a single day and then go on to woo Paris, London and Berlin.
It will all be very glam for him from this point on, but glamour is not what he needs to capture Ohio's working class.
The next PA poll should be very instructive. Methinks Obama is losing the heartland.
This will require a full tilt western strategy. It will be an interesting test of his brand.
Let's consider Rasmussen Reports'—and other sources'—polling on Ohio since Senator Barack Obama became the presumptive Democratic nominee on June 3.…
July 22 Rasmussen: presumptive Republican nominee Senator John McCain ahead of Obama, 46 to 40 percent ("leaners," 52 to 42 percent).
July 17-20 Public Policy Polling: Obama ahead of McCain, 48 to 40.
June 17 Rasmussen: McCain ahead of Obama, 44 to 43 percent.
June 11-30 Zogby: Obama ahead of McCain, 43 to 38.
June 20-22 Survey USA: Obama ahead of McCain, 48 to 46.
June 9-16 Quinnipac University: Obama ahead of McCain, 48 to 42.
June 14-15 Public Policy Polling: Obama ahead of McCain, 50 to 39.
Prior to Obama winning the delegates to wrap the nomination, Rasmussen polled the following in Ohio.…
May 15 Rasmussen: McCain ahead of Obama, 45 to 44 percent.
April 8 Rasmussen: McCain ahead of Obama, 47 to 40 percent.
March 13 Rasmussen: McCain ahead of Obama, 46 to 40 percent.
February 17 Rasmussen: McCain ahead of Obama, 42 to 41 percent.
I am questioning whether Rasmussen Reports is "accurate" in its Ohio polling of the McCain-vs.-Obama presidential race.
—CoolBlue71
Nate: Is there a chance for you to check on the data whether the polling date (i.e. the day of the week when a poll was taken) introduces a bias towards one or the other condidate? We have the observation that Gallup is always polling Obama better on weekends, and also a similar remark (Obama polling much better on a Sunday) on the last ABC / WaPo national poll. If so, this would explain part of the difference between the PPP (Thu-Sun) and the RAS (Mon only) polls.
Asides, I feel it is becoming time for some clean-up. For example, you still include the Moore poll for WA, even though several commenters have listed it as being launched by a senatorial campaign. I also support Scott (Sarah-Lawrence) in the request to eliminate the impact of Rasmussenn's methodological change from the SuperTracker.
Pete,
Are you familiar with Godwin's Law?
You might be treated as if you had more credibility if you didn't let your petulance get away with you.
This McCain lead merely reaffirms the electoral fact of life for the past 10 elections, that the contiguous river states of Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee, Missouri, Kentucky and Ohio ALWAYS vote AGAINST the eventual LOSER.
This won't be a popular observation on this board, but so be it. If Obama makes a hard move in these 6 states, then he will have shown something.
As it is now, he trails in all 6 and trails prohibitively in LA, AR, TN and KY.
Obama will get a small oversees bounce, but we won't see it for a few days. Its all media generated anyway, probably won't last long.
@ Dr. Light,
I'm not sure I agree with the analysis that MI and PA are trending Obama. There are only 2 MI polls in July, and none for PA. Too many of the polls we are looking at are from May or before. I'm just not comfortable calling that a trend, considering error, time lag, and sparse sampling. Now if we had a daily or weekly tracking poll, that would be good for these three states. I am also very interested in the regional break-down inside of Ohio. For example, McCain must carry southeastern Ohio by a large margin. We can approxiamate with KY or WV, and guess that is the case. He must do well in Cinncy, and the suburbs of Columbus. He needs to either win or break-even in northeastern Ohio. Demographic breakdowns with decent numbers would be nice too. One way to look at this election is best 2 out 3 for OH, PA, and MI.
Why don't we start a polling company and do the polling correctly? Anywho, I digress.
Die-Hard 'Pub
Obama will win Ohio, due to enthusiasm and greater ground organization. But, he does not even ened to win Ohio. He will also win New Mexico, Colorado, and Iowa.
Personally I believe the Rasmussen Polls more and the Obama campaign NEED to start REALLY laying out some economic plans once the senator returns from Europe or else i see Michigan going to McBush also ...
The reason I feel "nervous" is not a static view of one or two polls but rather a consistent decline in all of the numbers across many states. The only place Obama seems to be polling better recently is in the Upper Midwest, Ohio notwithstanding. In such a tight race, it doesn't make me comfortable to see either pro-McCain or anti-Obama momentum right now.
I hope this is just a temporary slump, rather than some kind of reaction to Obama's repositioning. Of course there are too many variables to try to pin down the exact cause.
Juris and Die-Hard 'Pub
Methodological bias does not equal political bias. I have no inclination to think that Ras leans Republican in anyway. However, sources of statistical bias that are related to methodological peculiarities, whether in Ras' methods or a systemic issue with the other pollsters, must be present here. That would be the only way to reconcile these results.
Bias in statistics is omnipresent. Being able to reduce it to a minimum is what makes a pollster better than others. Ras has generally been quite good at this. So I would not be totally surprised, though it is unlikely, that the problem is actually with how the other pollsters poll Ohio. Given how skewed the internals seem to be by some accounts (haven't had a chance to fully study them yet), I wouldn't bet on it.
MCCAIN WILL BE PRESIDENT
OBAMA GOING ON HOLIDAY IS REALLY GOOD
MCCAIN WILL GIVE ME MORE TAX CUTS SO I CAN BUY ANOTHER CAR
:-)
MCCAIN WILL WIN OHIO EASILY
OBAMABOTS ARE IN FOR A SHOCK
LOL
Anonymous @ 1:26
That's a cute argument, it reminds me of the desperation coming from the Clinton camp last spring.
"If Obama can't win the continguous river states, how can he win the general election?"
Well, for one, he can win New Mexico, Colorado, and Iowa instead.
Obama is struggling in the polls
No,I laugh at ARG because I've been watching thier polling for awhile. If you go back and check out thier pollling during the primaries thier trend lines look more like the Andes than any kind of trend. So I pretty much ignore ARG polls.
I have no doubt McCain is catching up at this time. I suspect McCain is doing better here in Florida (that's where I live) than the ARG poll shows. But that is a guess and I have nothing to back it up other than living here for most of my life. IMHO the only way Obama will carry Florida is if things get a lot worse here. A realy bad tourist season and a badly handled hurricane could push Obama over, but with the former being likely, I don't think the later is going to happen.
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rasmussen's poll is definitely an attention-grabber. It is interesting to note that ONLY rasmussen has had McCain up in Ohio since mid-May, with 4 other polling outfits having Obama up between 2 and 11...PPP may be Democratic, but its results in other polls are actually quite similar to Rasmussen's, and PPP had a much larger sample size.
I am not asserting a deliberate ideological bias for either company, though it is relevant to note that Rasmussen is a hard-right evangelical who worked for Bush in 2004 and PPP is a firm that does polling for the Dems. I think the difference can be largely attributed to methodology, how leaners are pushed, party ID and other internals. Until someone besides Rasmussen shows McCain with a lead in Ohio, I wouldn't get too happy or gloomy (depending on your orientation). Pick your poison. Obama up 8, based on a 1058 person sample, or of course, (pace PK) we could draw yet more ominous and cataclysmic portents for Obama from one 500 person one day poll showing him down by 10...helps distract from McCain's latest desperate and ludicrous ads (NO FAIR, THE MEDIA LOVE OBAMA,MAKE THEM STOP!!!) or the fact that Maliki has now essentially endorsed Obama's position on a timeline.
Let the trolling begin;=}
Nate,
Again you are trying to correlate numbers with facts and you assume that both samples are accurate.
Well they cannot be. The idea of leaners being pushed to McCain just doesn't explain PPPs +8 for O
One is (or both of them of them may be) wrong.
IHateDouchebags obviously has no concept of how financial markets work, or who are the players (200 companies in the stockmarket, and 25% from JoePublic. price fixing is at least possible in a state like that).
But, beyond that, the market thinks on a three hour horizon. That is, they don't go and invest in green companies until three hours before Obama gets elected (or directly after, which will be why we see the market crash when he does get elected).
If the poll is bad news for Obama, it must be an outlier!
The Dems have definitely dropped the ball in this election. Will Obama's plummet in the poll help the GOP take back some House seats too?
@ Pete Kent,
How much does the McCain campaign pay you to spam multiple discussion boards? Just asking!
McCain is such a foreign policy expert that he thinks Iraq and Pakistan share a border :)
I love how the McCain campaign need to win Michigan or Pennsylvania to win the election. Ha Ha Ha. They're democratic states and ony go republican in land slides.
McCain strategy has only one possibility of winning. Landslide. if you have to win Michigan to w the election, your in trouble as a republican, and thats the position McCain is in. Obama has Colorado locked up with the convention being there. With increased African American turnout in Michigan giving Obama a 2-3 point extra edge over the normal edge, McCain is in deep trouble.
Folks, Ohio ain't goin to matter. get used to it. Its all about Michigan.
Anonymous @ 1:36
Obama still has a decisive electoral vote lead according to averages of each state poll. Certainly, McCain has a shot, but he's nowhere near where he needs to be. Ohio is one state he has to secure, but there are at least a dozen realistic ways for Obama to hit 270 without Ohio.
Frank from Germany, did you see my note on the practical difficulties of dealing with Rasmussen's methodological shift?
I thought of it some more, and I can see one principled way: have two supertracker variables, one Rasmussen-State-without-leaners, continued all the way to the elections, the other Rasmussen-State-with leaners, starting July. We thus double-count Rasmussen from July onwards. Nate didn't explain how, but he does weight polls for the supertracker. He could divide the weight of the rasmussen between the two variables.
The problem is that Nate already added so many epicycles into his model..
It is disturbing, this poll. As to Pennsylvania, local Republican officholders are putting out feelers to switch parties. Ones that aren't up for re-election. The registration drive has been a smashing success, and McCain has no infrastructure for November. Dropping by once a month for a fake gooper only "town hall" is a one way ticket to palookaville.
> That Obama can win in France and Germany can and probably will cost him votes here at home. These socialist nations backed Kerry in much the same way, although with less fanfair and his American ratings went down.
1) It speaks volumes about a part of the American population's provinciality if they consider a candidate's popularity in other Western democracies a bad thing rather than a considerable boost to America's "soft power" under such a president. It's an imbecile look at overseas countries.
2) Neither Germany or France is socialist. That's just a Limbaugh-esque talking-point. We have social market-economies. You're stuck in using inaccurate stereotypes.
Definitely looks like Obama's numbers are sliding. I'm not sure what the reason for the sudden decline is, but it doesn't seem like just a blip in polling.
Obama needs to get back on the offensive as soon as he gets back to the U.S. His plane should be flying direct to Philadelphia, because he needs to do a bit of campaigning in the Rust Belt, methinks...
And McCain needs to be hammering this opening. He needs to get off Iraq and step on the gas, here - that's the big issue shaping up to dominate this election, and even though all he's got are gimmicks, horses and people will follow the dangling carrot more willingly than they'll take the stick: McCain has, politically speaking, got the gas argument in the bag right now.
It would be greatly helpful to Obama's campaign if the candidate made a speech outlining his plans for a new initiative to wean America off oil, perhaps in a joint appearance with Al Gore and in reference to his aggressive timetable. I don't think Obama can win by pointing out the fact that it's raining; he has to promise he'll keep people from getting wet.
Pete Kent, I notice that you have already adopted the talking point that Maliki is "meddling in our election". Um, with all due respect, he's the elected leader of a sovereign nation, and the extent of his "meddling" is that he's asking OUR troops to leave HIS country. I was appalled that McCain attempted to portray the Iraqi government's stated wish as only being one factor in our potential withdrawl. As if Johnny Boy is saying that only the US knows what's good for Iraq. Let me spell this out for you, Pete, it's THEIR country, if THEY ask US to leave THEIR country, we do exactly that. Period. No debate. By the way, genius, if the US refuses to leave when formally asked to do so, the Shiite cease fire will evaporate and our troops will start getting killed again, then Johnny Boy McCain won't be able to tout his mad military skillz.
Some years polls don't matter. This is one of those years. Turnout will be historic and they ain't comming out for the republicans.
All the new voters are comming to the polls to voice their displeasure. They don't side with either party and only show up when they are pissed. Well, they are pissed. And although they aren't voting for Obama, he will be the beneficiary. Its all over folks. The point is moot.
You don't get to run the country like Bush and not pay. The piper will be singing on election day, and his color is blue.
Thanks, anonymous humanist. I checked the pollster.com history (I'd forgotten that they kept those three-day Rasmussen bins). The numbers in the national polls before and after they switched to general election mode are uncontroversially consistent. That means that reporting the national numbers with leaners is correct.
I still think we have a difference of opinion on the state polls. Rasmussen thinks the non-leaner number is the headline number. He reports it in his summary tables, and averages it with earlier polls. RCP, pollster.com, and 538 all override this and use the number with leaners.
I think you have to have an awfully good justification to take what a pollster reports as a result and replace it with something you find inside their internals.
After all, since Rasmussen himself is using the non-leaner number as their basis for comparison to earlier polls, it is not unlikely that he will simply decide to stop reporting leaners at some point. That will create exactly the problem you describe--a change in methodology late in the race that will throw everything out of whack.
While I had been leaning to the two-separate-variables solution, you've convinced me that the perils with doing that is too large. Instead, we should just use the number without leaners. That's what Rasmussen headlines, and since he's continually averaging and comparing with earlier polls, he's unlikely to change things in such a way as to do violence to the headline number he uses. By using the number with leaners, 538 (and pollster.com) open themselves to more problems if that piece, which has to be considered a "trial question," goes away again.
LOL the only "methodological problem" with this poll is that it doesn't show your guy winning.
Face it, this election is all about THE ECONOMY.
Most Americans do not care about Obama flying to Iraq. We are more worried about being able to drive to Grandma's.
Most Americans do not care about what kind of crowds Obama gets in foreign countries. We think it's because of those guys that our economy is in such bad shape to begin with.
Obama has no credibility on economic issues. America will not trust a 1-term senator to lead the nation during a difficult time.
John McCain is the next president of the United States.
@ Charles,
We consider them socialist. That isn't Limbaugh, that is a wide swath of American opinion. It is not attractive to see Euro's swooning over somebody. I work with Euro's all the time. We just don't agree. One example: There are two ways to make the world a bette place: 1. Improve it through democracy or infra-structure or 2. Kill bad guys. The Middle East needs a big dose of 2, and Euro's just don't agree.
Is it a backwards, provincial mindset? I just don't care ...
Die-Hard 'Pub
Good lord! Where the heck did all the republican concern trolls come from - they're like black flies in June, swarming over the least bit of good news for McCain.
Don't you all have some fundraising or voter registration stuff to do? I mean, it's almost like all you guys care about is spamming political blogs. :P
So, let's look at the economy. We are running a record deficit (because of the tax cuts and financing two wars with a credit card), we are running a record trade deficit (because of NAFTA), our currency is worth half of what it was eight years ago (the REAL cause of the rise in oil prices by the way), and we have destabilized the world oil market further by waging a war in one OPEC country (Iraq), threatening two other oil producing countries (Venezuela and Iran), and badly alienating the rising oil producing power in the world (Russia). John McCain favors a continuation of every single Republican economic initiative that put the economy in the state that it's in. He hasn't offered a single proposal that represents a break with the Bush administration. Not one. So, what some of you are trying to argue is what the American people really want to fix the economy is to continue the policies of the last eight years? Reagan famously asked, "are you better off than you were four years ago?" No one can answer that question "yes" today.
GOP trolls do not understand that this is a CHANGE ELECTION.
It doesn't matter that Obama cozies up to foreign leaders instead of campaigning at home.
It doesn't matter that Obama opposes drilling in ANWR.
It doesn't matter that Obama has less than a term of experience in the Senate.
It doesn't matter that Obama has never served his country in the military.
The only thing that is important here is that Obama can sink 3-pointers like nobody's business.
Uh, McCain himself said he knows little about the economy. It will be hard for him to get elected on this issue, esp. since polls show that most Americans trust Obama more on this issue.
Until this week, McCain's cudgel was Iraq. Now Obama has gone to Iraq and quelled that. Now all of a sudden McCain, Mr. I know Nuttin' about da Economy, is the economy man? C'mon. He better get to work then because polls (the subject of this site) show that he is NOT viewed that way by most Americans.
On Obama's campaign, everything I've read is that he will basically only keep pace (in terms of what he spends) with McCain in advertising until the convention. Then he pulls out the big guns. It is possible that McCain is doing better in many states because he is running ads there and Obama isn't answering.
It will be very interesting to see what happens after the conventions, when Obama is spending $$ and McCain has to pull back.
To Pete Kent:
I disagree with pretty much everything you say, but I haven't been one of those calling for your banning, or even calling you a troll. You like to spin naratives of how things might go well for McCain. Actually, come to think of it, you almost never mention him; you like to spin naratives about how Obama's campaign will collapse. And that's fine. But I do have one request:
KNOCK IT OFF WITH THE NAZI COMPARISONS!!!
C'mon, you're better than that.
thanks,
lilnev
Anonymous humanist: I like your 1:39 proposal. (Boy, it's hard to have conversations in comment forums!) That way, if the leaners aspect disappears again, there's no harm done; the with-leaners version just goes away and the other goes back to full strength. And the distortion in the trend is gone.
It's not a perfect solution, but it's a darn good one.
1:58 pm, who gives a flying crap about wether a Presidential candidate was in the military or not? Our military is under civilian control, no? To assert that only those in the military are qualified to be President smacks of fascism. By the way, you GOP trolls were bagging on Obama for not going to Iraq and Afghanistan, now that he's there you're criticizing him for going?
IHD-
Your corn/oil comparison is faulty, no matter how many times you post it. Also, stop being an asshole. There's really no need for it. A less agressive name might help.
In July and especially August, corn markets have a very, very good idea of how much corn will come to market in September-December, because of the short time frame (3-5 mo) and easily obtainable data (ask a the farmers). No such certainty exists regarding con-shelf drilling in oil markets. No data exists on how much oil is out there, and the "lag" time figure that's often thrown out is six years for exploratory wells, and seven to ten for production wells if the exploratory wells pan out.
Put simply, there won't be any new information on how much oil may hit the market, and until there is new information, there won't be any lasting change change in the markets assumptions of future supply. Sure, there might be a near-term change due to "perception", but such changes don't last a long time at all, because the underlying market fundamentals haven't changed. Traders aren't going to ditch oil and drive down the price now because there could be a supply glut in 2015.
Anon @ 1:48. you think McCain has credibility on the econnomy?
If I have to choose between borrow and spend and tax and spend, I'd rather not have my kids paying for what we do now.
Plus if I check on which party has increase the size and spending of the government the most over the last 30 years, I can clearly see it is not the party that claims to want small government.
I am not a fan of either party, and do not belong to either one, but right now I can see that the Republicans are worse for me and my family than the Democrats (if only by a little), but I gotta look out for my family so....
Gee, I guess I let my bias show a bit there.
When Rasmussen´s national polls showed Obama-McCain with a tie I waited until the next national poll to judge about Rasmussen´s national numbers (I think I posted this somewhere before here). And then the next one was a Quinnipiac poll with Obama +6 and since then I have kinda dismissed Rasmussen´s numbers.
Now, this Ohio poll is probably the first one in a long time that would turn the race back to an undecided state, since the easiest ways for Obama to win are either Kerry States+Ohio or Kerry+Iowa+NM+CO. So if Ohio turns into a toss-up Obama would only have the 3-state combination as the safe way at the moment. And I consider betting on only one way to 270 not being safe.
Now, I don´t yet know what to make of that poll. I remember that the gas tax issue was a rather weak move during the Indiana-primary and I think that the way the questions are formulated by Rasmussen might cover a gap between hard and soft support, i.e. you are dissatisfied with the Republican Party this year but you would vote for their candidate if you would have to.
It´s difficult to decide for me... I´ll probably wait for the next poll from another supposedly independent pollster (SUSA where are you?)... From own experience I would assume that people in economically losing states a.k.a. Rust Belt rather vote against something than for something which could explain how other pollsters get worse results for McCain while Rasmussen does´n´t take the disenchantment for the Republicna Party in account...but that´s a shaky argument.
I could still imagine that Obama lost a few points though, for whatever reason (the New Yorker cover???) and the truth would in fact be somewhere in between Ras and PPP, that is, Ohio is about tied.
Anonymous Humanist: Your post came in when I was just posting mine, so I did not read it. You are making a reasonable point, however, I think Scott's reply (which came in while I was just writing it) provides for an accurate solution.
Charles: Thanks for the point - I wanted to make the same one. To my knowledge, neither Sarkozy nor Merkel are members of socialist parties ..
Tide: "they don't go and invest in green companies until three hours before Obama gets elected (or directly after, which will be why we see the market crash when he does get elected)." Actually, I think there is a pretty good chance to see the market crash already sometimes in mid-October. In a number of sectors (automobiles, banks, consumer goods, retail etc.) 3rd quarter reporting may be quite disastrous, while the banking crisis, growing public debt and oil speculation should take more and more liquidity out of the stock market. Unless, of course, the USD losing so much value that Russian, Saudi and Chinese investors decide its getting time to go shopping big on Wall Street ..
I probably shouldn't tell you this but I always lie to pollsters.
I do not know how to explain such disparate results so close in time, but what I do know is it is pretty arrogant to post as "Christ" as the poster at 12:38 did. Wow, blasphemous much?
Both PPP and Rasmussen are at the least, quasi-competent pollsters. What that means is that the truth probably is somewhere between these two polls. It is kind of a boring conclusion but... the race in Ohio is pretty close. Those that are dissecting Ohio politics sound like they are trying to convince themselves or others what way the race is leaning; it is speculation.
Alex S said:
I´ll probably wait for the next poll from another supposedly independent pollster (SUSA where are you?)...
Seconded. They're overdue, and should be out soon, no? Previous polls on the 21st and the 17th?
I noticed that Obama does better in the tracking polls when the weekend poll results are added in and PPP's poll was taken in part over the weekend. Maybe that was part fo it?
Anonymous in PA
Let's not get too excited about the polls one way or another. 40% of voters have decided they will vote for Obama. 40% have decided they will vote for McCain. The wishy-washy 20% who will decide the election won't even be paying attention until after Labor Day. And, this year, I think the pollsters will have some problems capturing cell phone users, determining who really is a likely voter, considering the likelihood of the new voters who are being brought in due to new voter registration, etc. And who knows what kind of October surprise is in store for us all. So, the July 22 polls really shouldn't put anyone in a state of depression or glee.
Vynce said:
"Actaully, Nate, those do not appear to be rasmussen's weighting numbers. According to This article's last paragraph, they're aiming for 41.4% Democrat, 31.5% Republican, and 27.1% unaffiliated (you listed 43/36/21). I'm not sure how that changes your assessment."
Just a correction here, Vynce (and others.) Rasmussen does not weight their state polls to predetermined national party ID numbers. They adjust a predetermined party ID number (based apparently on a previous election) by the change in the national partyID numbers.
Thus, if a state had 35% Democrats in the last election and Democrats nationally have (according to Rasmussen) picked up 5%, the state is now assumed to be 40% Democratic.
I personally find the whole partyID weighting approach to be illegitimate and the application of national constant to a state doesn't make it anymore so.
But Nate, I suspect, is correct in his comment about the weighting in Ohio.
In any event, it does appear that Rasmussen is consistently getting a more "Republican" sample than anyone else in Ohio.
Anonymous in PA: I agree with your basic sentiment. But by looking at all the national polls since the end of the primaries, I conclude that it's more like 44% who are currently quite likely to vote for Obama, and perhaps 36% who are quite likely to vote for McCain. But those who aren't in either camp are more likely right now to lean toward McCain than Obama.
That combination is consistent with almost all the polls, the enthusiasm numbers, etc.. It's part of the reason national polls sometimes seem at odds--the more they probe soft support, the closer the race looks. If they measure only die-hards, they get lower numbers for each candidate (of course), but it costs McCain much more than Obama.
I just found a very good assessment by Charlie Cook of the Cook Report.
what I perceive is inconsistency in the polling. It appears to me that the reason we are getting variant results is that Americans are having troubling making up their minds and that the soft support for either candidate is indeed quite soft...or that perhaps the slightest change in question order/how the question is framed is driving the responses.
Cook doesn't speak to that. However, he talks about what he is seeing in his polling, that Americans, and esp. white older AMericans, are not feeling comfortable with Obama yet. He likens this year to 1980; saying that Obama will have to convince voters to trust him and many are not there yet, but still open to him as well.
http://www.nationaljournal.com/njonline/ot_20080722_4702.php
@Mason,
I don't even have time for you. I earned my phD in economics, taught for a little while, and work for a consulting firm as a commodity analyst.
You can spew puke all day long and blabber about your "understanding" of markets, but I doubt you've done 1/100th the work I have in studying these markets. To the uninformed such as yourself, yes, it would appear there are many esoteric variables that lack decent information to make any significant analysis on.
It's just comforting that sub-human garbage like you are confined to trolling message boards to spew lies about your "vast market knowledge" while the rest of us who actually have a clue are actually out here in the real world in a position to make honest and accurate assessments and provide solutions.
Now, piss off!!
@ Lamont,
You missed the point of the post entirely. The point of the post was that there are 6 states that have been 100% correct in voting AGAINST the eventual loser in EVERY election from 1968 onward.
Those states voted against Hubert Humphrey after the riots at the Democrat National Convention in '68.
They voted against George McGovern in '72 after McGovern offered the most liberal agenda in US history.
They voted against Gerald Ford after he pardoned Nixon in '76.
They tossed out Jimmy Carter in '80 after voting him in in.
They voted against Carter's VP Mondale in '84, giving Reagan a 2nd term.
They voted against Dukakis in '88, giving Reagan's VP George HW Bush the Oval Office.
They voted against GHW Bush in '92, sending Bill Clinton to the White House.
They voted against Bob Dole in '96, giving Clinton a 2nd term.
They voted against Clinton's VP Al Gore in '00, giving GW Bush the Oval Office. TENNESSEE voting against it's own native son.
The voted against John Kerry in '04, giving Bush a 2nd term.
These are NOT radical or liberal or conservative states.
James Carville, the Democrat mastermind is from Louisiana.
Bill Clinton is from Arkansas.
Rush Limbaugh is from the Missouri bootheel.
Tennessee has given the USA, Al Gore, Fred Thompson, Bill Frist and Harold Ford Jr of the DLC.
These states have voted against the loser 10 times in a row. They are the only American states to do so. No other states are even close.
Perhaps it is mere coincidence that they are all middle American states and border either the Ohio or Mississippi Rivers. But these states totally mirror the American mood----they have voted out sitting Presidents, rejected VP's running for the Oval Office, and they have voted out a President after just having voted him in four years previous.
Certainly, Obama and his supporters are not going to give up hope because of these polls ( after all, they lead in many other states and polls), but the fact remains that the leading indicator is now shaping up foursquare against them.
The election race is still early. A lot of time left.
I am totally agreeing with Scott.
If we would project the current situation into November we would have to conclude that McCain will win if he can somehow explain to independent/republican voters that they must vote for him (the international crisis that would help them as the McCain campaign said before). That´s the scenario Obama is working against at the moment - demonstrating that he would be able to face an international crisis.
Could the economic situation become so much worse that people think the Democrats are too "weak" to solve it?
The problem about being both a partisan and a poll junkie is that by the nature of the beast those numbers really MEAN something to you. When even one number, if it is such a key number as OH, is against your guy, you take it very seriously. (Far too seriously, of course, when it is July 22nd.)
For some of us, unfortunately, the fear of a Blown Lead has become too much a part of our psychology. As both a liberal and a Philadelphia sports fan, I have learned always to expect that no matter how far ahead my team seems to be, the lead can be blown.
No doubt I should take a vacation from 538 and other polling sites until, say, mid-September, but not sure how strong I will be in fighting the poll junkie in me ...
Six-States anonymous:
The entire bellweather approach is a type of superstition.
Every set of events has commonalities. I see a black cat AND get ill, on the same day.
Some commonalities are the result of an underlying causal nexus, some are the result of coincidence.
The fewer events we are connecting, the more we find coincidence and the less we have reason to believe in a causal nexus.
Ten elections are few events.
Relative to such a small set, there are always MANY commonalities present in all past results, which are to disappear in the next result.
I can assure you that there is a configuration of the planets which is predictive of ALL past election results. And, in all likelihood, this configuration will not be predictive one bit of the election results this year.
Granted, there is a very simple underlying causal nexus for the evidence you bring: since the overall map doesn't change a lot from elections to elections, tipping point states - roughly the same set - do tend to predict the results of most elections. But this is because they are tipping point states, not because they have any particular predictive properties; and the tipping state property does change somewhat from elections to elections.
How to predict, then, which way the elections could go? How to know which are the tipping point states?
By relying on rationally gathered information such as the one found on this site.
new rasmussen senate poll in CO, udall's up 3 down from 9 last month, interesting how obama's falling in state's and a few dem's too.
but yet going up in alaska and stuff.
interesting year ahead
So If Rasmussen's model is 43/36/21, and obama gets 74% of the 43, and about 7% of the 36 (about the average nationally), this = 34.34% of the 79% of Republicans and Democrats polled, leaving of course the 21%. Since Obama only carries, naturally, 40% of the total, this means he obtains 6% from the 21% of Independents polled. 6% from the 21% is equivalent to carrying 28.57% of Independents.
Similarly with respect to incorporating leaners, if Obama takes 77% of the 43% of democrats, and 8% of the 36% of republicans, Obama obtains 36% total support. Again, he needs 6% from the 21% of Independents, meaning he gets 28.57% of support from Independents.
Three options: either this poll is not at all consonant, demographically, with what Nate suggests; or, my math really sucks and is entirely off; or, there is over a 70 point swing in terms of Independents supporting McCain relative to supporting Bush in 2004 in Ohio. Can someone double check this.
I'm going to assume Rasmussen really shifted demographics in their polling, and their statement that 23% of unaffiliated voters support McCain alone suggests a +42 swing to the right in Ohio relative to 2004 (according to CNN exit polling in Ohio).
I see my error- I forgot to include that undecideds comprise up to 14% without leaners, thus tossing the balance off entirely. It still represents a 42 point swing relative to 2004 in independents to the right. Does this seem consonant?
Forget the exit polls in Ohio. They were wrong on so many levels. You need to see the acutal turnout numbers for the election to make any judgement.
Well - one thing this does suggest is that if Ohio really is exactly tied, and that seems like a reasonable conclusion, it means that Indiana is certainly not - despite what some of the overly enthusiastic Obamaphiles have claimed lately.
Though McCain's (admittedly soft) edge among independents in the Rasmussen poll is huge, the part that really caught my attention was this:
"McCain is supported by 88% of Republicans and Obama earns the vote from 74% of Democrats."
That weaker base for Obama accounts for about six points.
Cindy said...
MCCAIN WILL BE PRESIDENT
OBAMA GOING ON HOLIDAY IS REALLY GOOD
MCCAIN WILL GIVE ME MORE TAX CUTS SO I CAN BUY ANOTHER CAR
:-)
MCCAIN WILL WIN OHIO EASILY
OBAMABOTS ARE IN FOR A SHOCK
LOL
I know no one should respond to such ridiculousness-but this type of posting is so annoying. Plus, it's likely factually wrong. To buy a car with the difference in taxes from McCain already places you among the top 5% or so of the population, and to save tens of thousands of dollars you are already one of the few people thats actually doing well in this economy Bush and the Republicans have destroyed.
Rasmussen has Obama +7 in CO. 49% to 42%. With leaners he's +3. 50% to 47%
74% of dems? That is an incredibly low number that can only get smaller as the election gets closer, very interesting poll indeed, especially with the PP poll released just yesterday.
Aes;
You forgot to mention that McCain has a 9% favorability advantage over Obama. Direction for Obama is down in West and Midwest . . . still developing . . .
Jen @2:19:
Well... it's definitely not blasphemous to post as "Christ" if you don't believe in any of that stuff. I'm gonna go out on a limb here and assume that whoever posted as such, does not (and need not in this country, thank you very much).
As for arrogance... claiming to know for sure how the entire universe came into existence based on stories in a book... that's arrogance (and some other things, too).
Back on the topic... Polls are going to have more noise in them this year. In previous elections, there were less differences between the candidates. It was pretty much a Republican white dude from money vs. a Democrat white dude from money. The only distinguishing qualities were geography, values, political things, etc. This year, with all of those divisions still in place, there's many other qualifiers on people's votes.
You have some people who refuse to vote for a black man.
You have some people who refuse to put a 72-year old man in office.
Personally, I envision these minority positions possibly having a major impact on the relatively small samples they select for a given demographic. If you've got 10 middle-class white married dudes (no clue how close that is to the actual number they would sample for a poll) in your sample, that 1 in 10 (or so...) who won't vote for Obama based on skin color can pretty easily paint a picture that's different from reality with just a few lucky dice rolls (while getting exactly 1 in 10 is the most likely result, the others, 0/10, 2/10, 3/10, etc. are still very likely). Similarly, if you happen to sample 10 elderly women and get a few with extensive memory issues, they might skew the sample to seemingly more anti-McCain based on their experience and personal concerns with his age.
Things are just more complicated this year and, as a result, painting the picture with the same width brush as previous elections is blurring the actual lines. Note, this is as likely to help either candidate and should strictly be contributing to the noise.
"You forgot to mention that McCain has a 9% favorability advantage over Obama. Direction for Obama is down in West and Midwest."
You mean "down" like Rasmussen's Colorado poll Pete, that has Obama going to +7 from last month's +2?
That kind of down?
"What else accounts for the differences between the two polls?"
Booze, obviously.
During the weekend, everyone is all drunk and sloppy. Pollster calls up and it's all "WOOO! Obama! YES WE CAN, WOOOOOOO!"
But then Monday rolls around, and depression sets in. People are a little grumpy, a little mopey, and a little "no we can't." So when the pollster calls, it's all deep sighs and picking McCain.
I tried to run these numbers through Nate's own World's "simplest election projection spreadsheet" and the sort version is: "It flat don't work! NO WAY this can be correct."
There just no way I can make McCain come up with a 10% lead without plugging in totally ridiculous numbers. In fact, if you simply use Nate's spreadsheet and plug in the numbers from this poll, starting with Voter ID: D43%, R36%, I21%
and then assume the poll is right in stating candidate support among Dems, Reps, and Independents
Democrats: Obama: 74%, McCain: 12%, Other/DK: 12%
Republicans: Obama: 10%, McCain: 88%, DK/Other: 2%
Independents: Obama: 30%, McCain: 50%, DK/Other: 20%
You would STILL get only a 6.2% McCain lead.
If you assume Democratic turnout the same as 2004 i.e. 62%, (patently absurd on it's face in light of all the new registrations, but let's assume), you'd have to put Republican turnout in Ohio ABOVE 70% to give McCain a 10% win.
I.E. Republicans would have to have an 8% greater turnout than Dems to give McCain a 10% win in Ohio and that's utterly impossible. Not even Bush managed that.
And that's assuming McCain's really winning Independents by 20%, which is also highly unlikely.
This poll is just badly screwed up. That's all.
Conclusion: What do I think is happening? Rasmussen is getting screwed again by his ridiculous "likely voter screen." It's July and he's screening too many people out because they are "uncertain" they will vote.
If they are "uncertain" in October that means something! NOW? It means they are thinking about getting a beer from the Fridge cause it's hot.
And he's pushing Independents too hard. Plus he's got a screwy sample somehow.
For instance:
And look at all the absurdities you have to invent to get even this far!
Does anybody really believe that there are only 2% Undecided Republicans right now, or that Obama gets less than 10% of the Republicans in Ohio? (Even say Rep. Obama: 8% and 4% undecided would be ridiculous).
McCain may wind up with 88% Republican support, but he's not there yet.
And does anybody really think McCain is winning Independents by over 20% (other than McCain trolls of course).
Why so low Democratic support for Obama? Likely voter screen! Voters who are saying they are 10% less sure they will vote than in June. These get weeded out of Rasmussen's likely voter screen.
People were paying attention during the primary, they're not paying attention now, and they'll start paying attention again come September (probably) and October (almost surely).
If you assume even 1/2 way reasonable numbers you can't make McCain's lead more than about 3%
Naomi--I was speaking of the leaned vote.
I think Ohio is a very blue collar, red neck state. Enough like its conservative neighbors as to make it more hospitable to McCain than Obama. Kerry was a bit of a buffoon, but Obama is like a man from Mars to many of these people. His elegance just turns them off. Mark me on this. I do not see Obama winning OH. he is no Ted Strickland!
Ohio Polling Challenge!
I'd like to see people try and plug some numbers into Nate's World's Simplest Election Projection spreadsheet and come up with a McCain 10% lead in Ohio.
See if you can do it! First, try without changing turnout from the 62% Dem, 62% Rep and 55% Indep. that Nate has. based on 2004.
Then notice Nate's ultimate assumption was that Obama would ultimately get 83% of Democrats (Kerry got 88%) and McCain: 14% of Democrats, while Republicans give McCain an 87%-9% edge (Bush got 93% of Republicans - But this election is much less polarized than the last one).
Now, let's give McCain a 25% lead among Independents: 55% - 30% with 15% undecided/DK. Here's the result. Now you try and report what you find:
World's Simplest Election Projection
www.FiveThirtyEight.com Turnout D62%, R62%, I55%
Party ID% as stated in poll: 43%D, 36%R, 21%I.
Obama McCain Barr Nader
Democratic Vote: Tota:43.00 Obama: 83.00% McCain: 14.00% DK/Other: 3%
Republican Vote: McCain:87.00% Obama: 9%, Other/Barr/DK: 4%
Independents: Obama: 30.00% McCain:55.00% Nader/Barr/Other/DK:11%
Total: Obama: 45.60 McCain: 48.74 Other: 5.76%
RESULT: McCain +3.1.
In short, given any remotely realistic Democratic loyalty to Obama (-5% from Kerry's 2004 totals, despite Democratic registration gains since 2004), and giving McCain an ABSOLUTELY ABSURD 25% lead among Independents which will NEVER IN HELL happen on election day unless Obama publicly declares he's a Muslim, McCain still gets around 3% lead.
No way in hell Obama is going to wind up with 74% Democratic support. That's just a ridiculous likely voter screen!
Let's see how you do! And show us the results!
The Rasmussen Colorado Poll with leaner's is pretty close to his last poll. Obama picks up one point on McCain Inside the margin of error.
The Ohio Poll and PPP poll are way off from one another. 2 point lead for McCain at the mos tin Ohio. However, except for Colorado, McCain seems to be closing the gap. It has been a great week of polling for McCain. This has been the first weekend in the Rasmussen Poll to show McCain holding his own in his tracking poll. Even Gallup tightened after just one day.
Obama with all the coverage should have pulled out to a much bigger lead in these tracking polls.
As an Obama supporter, and considering the condition of the country, I really thought he would be out to a 10 point lead for the entire month of July. With the approaching Olympics, there will be an almost dead calm in the nation as everybody tunes to the Olympic coverage.
I really think gas prices and the Democrats no drill policy is beginning to take effect on the polls.
Does anybody else have any thoughts on this issue?
I think it's a shame that people think gas prices are linked to the potential 150,000 barrels of oil a day we'd be opening up in 20 years with offshore drilling, when 500,000 barrels a day today from Saudi Arabia didn't budge them an inch.
THINK!
Nothing like using people's ignorant conclusions to sway their opinion in order to win an election!! God Bless America!
Well, at least the Colorado poll is a bit of a consolation. I don't think there's been a single poll since January showing McCain ahead there - ditto Iowa and New Mexico.
Ohio is always tough for Democrats. Too many hicks in the southeastern part of the state.
What is the likelihood of Indiana being more pro-Democrat than Ohio this time around?
My theory for the Obama polling drop is:
1. Fallout from the New Yorker cover that led to nationwide discussion about Muslim connections and Michelle's militancy; and
2. Excessive fawning coverage of the Obamaplaooza tour creating a backlash.
THE Ohio poll should ring a few alarm bells in the Obama camp. Rasmussen usually know what they're doing, unlike PPPiss-take.
This whole off-shore drilling pander is unbelievable. Do people honestly believe that the Saudi dessert sits a few miles off our coastline?
A bucket of water wouldn't have helped the Hindenburg. And it's not just "tree huggers" screaming--forget the environmental impact completely. Listen to T. Boone Pickens. If there was ever a man who understood the oil business, it's him. We CANNOT drill out of the problem.
I'm hard pressed to think of a bigger farce than this issue, except maybe the "missile defense system".
Mark in VA,
t. bOONE pICKENS DOES SAY DRILL, drill, drill listen to what he says. We need to do everything.
1) One day polling is crap. The CO numbers look good (I ignore the "leaners" number because it's the first time they've included it) and the OH numbers look back for Obama. How about a three-day sample? Rasmussen's state poll is suspect.
2) The trip abroad is absolutely the right thing to do, regardless of what happens in the short term polls. Every major poll showed the only real advantage McCain had over Obama was foreign policy and national security. This trip has already done much to erase those doubts - or at least bring Obama close to even. The election is not next week. It's in three months.
3) The 1980 analogies are apt. There are a lot of voters who don't like McCain but aren't sure about Obama. In 1980 voters knew they didn't like Carter but had doubts about Reagan until the debate. Then everybody moved to Reagan. This is very similar. Notice how McCain's numbers in the trackers have remained low, but Obama's have drifted to undecided?
The race is Obama's to lose.
-Elrod
anon @ 7:26 -
t. bOONE pICKENS DOES SAY DRILL, drill, drill listen to what he says. We need to do everything.
You need to unplug your ears, it seems. Pickens knows better than anyone the waste of effort, time, and resources that an offshore expansion would mean.
http://thinkprogress.org/wonkroom/2008/07/22/pickens-rude-awakening/
"Naomi--I was speaking of the leaned vote."
Well Pete, if you've learned anything from hanging around this site, it's that you can't compare apples to oranges. Last month's Colorado poll by Rasmussen was a registered voter poll, and so the only viable comparison is with this month's registered voter figures, not the "leaners". That means Obama went from +2 to +7, which given the importance of Colorado in this election, is nothing to sneeze at.
Naomi,
You are in no position to lecture me. The distiction between leaned and non-leaned votes has nothing to do with the distiction bw RVs and LVs. It's a matter of asking a different question.
IHD-
I don't even have time for you. I earned my phD in economics, taught for a little while, and work for a consulting firm as a commodity analyst.
You can spew puke all day long and blabber about your "understanding" of markets, but I doubt you've done 1/100th the work I have in studying these markets. To the uninformed such as yourself, yes, it would appear there are many esoteric variables that lack decent information to make any significant analysis on.
So explain it, asshole. If you're such a god damn expert. If you do it for a living it should be easy. What are some of those semingly "esoteric variables"? What do "these markets" know that isn't available to the general uninformed public? If you have such easy access to this information because you do it professionally, perhaps you could enlighten us instead of insulting us. I'm not asking for trade secrets mind you, but all day you've done nothing of any use. You haven't posted a single link, nor fact, nor figure, so forgive me if I conclude you aren't privy to any special knowledge or insight. Surely commodity traders such as yourself have some set of favorite sites that is useful to those in your field? Or a professional association? Or trade journals? I mean, you have to transmit information to one another some how.
It's just comforting that sub-human garbage like you are confined to trolling message boards to spew lies about your "vast market knowledge" while the rest of us who actually have a clue are actually out here in the real world in a position to make honest and accurate assessments and provide solutions.
Which one of us is posting under our real name and which is posting under some hyper-aggressive pseudonym? And I'm the sub-human one? Get a life, troll.
Hmm. I thought Rasmussen's Colorado poll last month was of registered voters. Anyway, the point remains, you're still comparing apples to oranges, i.e. leaners to non-leaners. Can't do that.
Robert Taft, a conservative Republican, was governor of Ohio in 2004 and allowed the Republican Party to interfere with voting rights in heavily Democratic precincts by their distribution of voting machines and their management of the registration procedures. (This is still an aggressive campaign tactic of the Republicans that the Democratic Party does not seem willing or able to challenge effectively.) Ted Strickland, a Democratic governor, will not allow this to happen, at least not so blatently. If Rassmussen is using "likely to vote" weights based on 2004 he may have a significant bias built in to his "quicky poll" results. Any evidence for this?
On the Obama trip: he's generated talking points that will carry him through the election whenever Republicans try to play the "experience" card. It didn't work for Hillary, and it won't work for McCain. It's not the polls taken now that matter, it's the exit polls, that have a history of accurate estimates (except in Ohio in 2004 and Florida in 2000) Obama has given up some polling points now to preempt Republican chatter. Experience is not a matter of time in place but of quality of results, and Obama is demonstrating that he is both able and willing to get the results that most Americans want. McCain cannot show anything comparable as he is both unwilling and unable to get favorable results.
On the Oil market: One must distinguish between production and supply. Today the price of oil is determined by OPEC controlling production. Supply, in economic terms, is the amount reasonably recoverable at a given price. Being the low cost producer, OPEC can increase the value of their oil reserves by pricing at the cost of recovery for the next lowest cost producer. Based on numbers reported in 1985 and adjusting for the decrease in the dollar value relative to oil has oil now selling at about the price needed to convert coal to synthetic oil. This is happening today in China where, like the U.S., considerable coal reserves reside. Once again, U.S. developed technology is being exploited abroad. This is a significant hurdle to be passed before Al Gore's challenge will be taken up.
Another explanation is that Obama simply can't seal the deal with voters in Ohio who are undecided. McCain's lead in the Rasmussen poll increased significantly once the "leaners" were included.
Hi Poblano: please see a bit of outlier polling analysis I did (wrt Rasmussen's OH polls) in my DK diary: Rasmussen's OH polls have been outliers. thanks and regs! -- NL
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