A few hours after Nate argued earlier today that:
Put differently, if you oppose Obama, it becomes much more likely that you do so for reasons related to his race, or because you believe one of the smears about his character, if we also learn that you're a Democrat.By coincidence a brand new Pew poll confirms exactly that insight. The title of the article explaining the poll results says it all: "Belief that Obama is Muslim is Durable, Bipartisan - but Most Likely to Sway Democratic Votes."
That's called prescient good timing.
58 comments
New Flash! Nate's a genius.
He's the man. I know it. You know it. The American people should know it (gosh... if only he could get Wolf Blitzer's time on CNN).
I hope Nate knows it (you rock, dude!).
Nate Silver para presidente! :-D
Or maybe because Anderson Cooper did a segment on this last night.
FINALLY SurveyUSA released new polls. Jeez, it's been like 2 weeks.
I think it's funny that this surprises anyone. Haven't people been saying for months that die-hard Republicans wouldn't vote for him anyway? So of course his being Muslim or not Muslim is going to be more likely to sway somebody who would actually vote for him.
Oh, forgot to add...
Only 57% of Americans know that he's Christian? That is really, really infuriating.
Following up on anon...
SUSA NC
McCain 50
Obama 45
An improvement for Obama, since their previous poll had been McCain +8.
To flog a dead horse a bit further:
the African-American vote splits, quite plausibly, 93-6 in this poll.
OTOH, SUSA's poll is 19% Af-Am, when the 2004 exit polls were 26% Af-Am.
How do we know which way the arrows run in cause: do people say he is a Muslim I won't vote for him, or that they don't want to vote for him, and look for reason and settle on the Muslim identification as a justification, as the reason they give to themselves as well as to pollsters. But is that reason independent of other variables that could influence their choice.
Any good ideas on how to figure this out?
Peter
ajb:
The SurveyUSA NC poll is encouraging! They consistently underestimated the black vote in Southern states in the primaries, and it looks like they may be doing it again.
I would expect the share of the black vote in NC to be at least 22%, and if that's the case, the race is tied.
My blogad down the left side is for "beautiful Muslim singles... for Matrimony!"
How exciting...
Seriously, Peter asks "Any good ideas on how to figure this out?"
I don't think you can, not through polling. I think it would require too much detail about how voters would feel about other potential Muslim presidents, who of course don't currently exist. Which way the arrow of causation points on stuff like this will have to remain a mystery for now.
"To flog a dead horse a bit further:
the African-American vote splits, quite plausibly, 93-6 in this poll.
OTOH, SUSA's poll is 19% Af-Am, when the 2004 exit polls were 26% Af-Am."
For the one millionth time, the exit polls were wrong. The NC Board of elections actually keeps track of who votes in NC and they found that 18.5% of voters were AA. Which makes sense since 19% of people in NC are AA. This has been discussed extensively.
"I would expect the share of the black vote in NC to be at least 22%, and if that's the case, the race is tied."
No, that's not correct. The crosstabs on the SUSA NC-Pres poll show whites breaking 64-31 McCain and blacks 93-6 Obama. In order for Obama to catch McCain using such numbers, the electorate would need to be 27.5% black.
There is really no excuse to not correct for racial, gender, and age imbalances in poll samples. Party affiliation may change, so that is more complicated; but the others are pretty cut and dried.
I find it startling that so many people have not heard enough about the candidates. They must really avoid all news sources. But apparently a lot of people fall into that category.
I wonder how many of the people who claim he's Muslim or have heard "mixed things about his religion" really mean they don't want to vote for him because of race. If they are on the level and it really is about religion, that would be pretty simple to correct, except of course these people don't listen do news sources and only get their information from wild rumors. Go figure.
In addition, I would point out that the proportion of undecideds is, of course, higher among whites.
White men are just killing Sen. Obama in NC, just as in a lot of other potential (but R-leaning) swing states. The only thing preventing Obama from achieving a landslide in this election, in my view, is reaching white men.
The strategies chosen to do that will be interesting.
I'm a conservative and hate John McCain because he's an idiot. Am I more susceptible to thinking McCain's an idiot because I'm conservative?
Tybalt:
I haven't done the exact calculations, but that doesn't sound right. Obama would need to increase the share of the black vote by 8.5% (which would subsequently decrease the share of the white vote by a similar amount) just to catch up 5 points?
Are you sure you did the calculations right? Unfortunately, SurveyUSA doesn't provide the Hispanic/Other breakdown because it's such a small percentage of the total.
At some point in time is someone going to address the real prejudice that has raised its head in this election cycle? It's not racism or sexism or ageism, but Islamaphobia. Certainly just 7 years after 9/11 it's understandable that fear of Muslims is prevalent, but the fact that the mere insinuation that Obama is a Muslim can taint this race so completely underscores just how much of an education in comparative religion this country needs. The silver lining is that less than 50 years ago some considered Catholicism an unelectable quality.
My back-of-the-envelope figuring on white men in NC has McCain beating Obama by 43 points among white men (69-26) using just about the most pessimistic assumptions I can.
White men are keeping McCain in this election - he has to defend them for all he's worth. If he can't hold white men nearly 3-1 in places like NC, he is going to get steamrollered.
Sean -- I think that was Poblano not Nate
Obama would need to increase the share of the black vote by 8.5% (which would subsequently decrease the share of the white vote by a similar amount) just to catch up 5 points?
May have overestimated by a half-point or so because Hispanics and "Other" aren't likely to split 50-50. But yes, for Obama to catch McCain on demographic shift alone, he needs to increase by 8.5. Because a good chunk of those white voters being drowned out by that demographic shift are themselves Obama voters.
the fact that the mere insinuation that Obama is a Muslim can taint this race so completely underscores just how much of an education in comparative religion this country needs
Remember when we were all talking endlessly about the role that the MITTSTER's Mormonism was going to play in the campaign? That seems like ages ago.
I don't think that a comprehensive education on the topic of comparative religion is going to do the trick, mate. The large numbers of people who suspect that Muslims have a fundamentally alien worldview to theirs aren't going to be swayed by Religious Studies 101.