FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Barack is, like, *so* popular!

7.30.2008

Barack is, like, so popular!

by Nate Silver @ 4:01 PM

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But he still has a long ways to go to catch up with Britney.

107 comments

bronxx said...: So at best, Obama is the most popular person in the U.S. since he loses to both Spears and Hilton overseas.; July 30, 2008 4:07 PM
zegota said...: Why don't we add John McCain to the mix?; July 30, 2008 4:09 PM
tomveiltomveil said...: You're basing your research on a faulty premise. Obama is a one-name celebrity, so people search for "obama", not "barack obama." When you input it that way, Obama beats the girls handily:

http://www.google.com/trends?q=obama%2C+%22britney+spears%22%2C+%22paris+hilton%22&ctab=0&geo=all&date=2008&sort=0; July 30, 2008 4:09 PM
dpldust said...: Obama beats girls? - You're thinking of McCain.; July 30, 2008 4:12 PM
Rasmus said...: tom,

again: Wrong premise. if you search for "Obama", it´s just fair to search for only "Hilton", too.
Then he loses. OK, it´s affiliated with Hilton hotels, too, but nonetheless...; July 30, 2008 4:14 PM
Prematurely Grey said...: How about other one name celebs? Madonna...; July 30, 2008 4:16 PM
michael_b_ellis said...: If you average out the MOS to the standard deviation of Britney searches to Obama searches, subtract the liklyhood of a Barr presidency, then add in McCains age, minus Obama's two kids, Obama beats both Britney and and Paris with Google searches in 1578 scenarios with an approximate 75% Win Percentage.

I know! At first I didn't realize this either.; July 30, 2008 4:17 PM
jack said...: If you narrow the search to just the U.S. , Barack Obama beats McCain 2 to 1.

"barack obama"
1.00

"britney spears"
0.72

"paris hilton"
0.42

"john mccain"
0.50; July 30, 2008 4:17 PM
Martin said...: This is so terribly important.; July 30, 2008 4:19 PM
dpldust said...: Even without just Hilton or just Britney, BS still wins, except for Canada - but you know...

McCain - almost invisible on the searches.

This is a huge plus for BO. Maybe its true, people don't know him, but now they are learning. And not from sitting in front of McCain or GOP commercials. Allot of people in USA want to know all about this guy and are not trusting the TV to give them the answer.

I had almost forgot how many hits the speech he gave on race has on YouTube.; July 30, 2008 4:20 PM
Carlos said...: It's important to note that Obama is actually the most popular among Americans. For Britney and Paris' lead, we must blame *the Canadians* as well as the world's non-Anglophones.; July 30, 2008 4:21 PM
Mordecai said...: All that is boring. McCain is wide open to get creamed on the pettiness and hypocrisy of the ad.

John McCain
1. did a cameo in Wedding Crashers
2. sucked up to cast members of the West Wing by telling them he didn't vote for Bush.

The man is jealous and angry. He's a little napoleon-complexed diva who can't stand the fact that there is someone getting better press than him.; July 30, 2008 4:21 PM
Christopher said...: It's really not bothersome to me if my president is also popular. I know it's a change, but it doesn't seem like an issue. Maybe I'm strange.; July 30, 2008 4:23 PM
Matthew said...: Obama beatin McCain handidly.... Both trounced by "porn".

http://www.google.com/trends?q=%22mccain%22%2C+%22porn%22%2C+%22obama%22&ctab=0&geo=US&geor=all&date=2008&sort=1; July 30, 2008 4:23 PM
Rich Porter said...: Obama's camp responds to the McCain attack advert.; July 30, 2008 4:23 PM
Martin said...: Porn for president it is then!; July 30, 2008 4:24 PM
Stephen said...: hilarious.

the above point about Obama being more of a one name search is valid. but neither "paris" nor "hilton" seem valid comparisons given their other meanings. Madonna is comparable, and about half as popular a search as Obama.

madonna v obama; July 30, 2008 4:25 PM
DJ said...: "538" beats all of the above in the Netherlands. I didn't realize Nate was so big in Amsterdam.; July 30, 2008 4:27 PM
Stephen said...: Porn for president!; July 30, 2008 4:27 PM
John said...: New CNN national poll.

July 27-29
Obama 51
McCain 44; July 30, 2008 4:32 PM
Jack-be-nimble said...: Team McCain keep punching day after day, scoring vote after vote, with Obama atempting rope-a dope strategy. Rope-a-dope only works in boxing and only if your opponent is a dope.

McCain is scoring free media after free media. McCain is all over the talk shows. People are very comfortable with him. Remember the final Score 300-238 EV for McCain.; July 30, 2008 4:33 PM
Stephen C. Rose said...: You can find the offensive McCain video here.; July 30, 2008 4:33 PM
Cugel said...: Yeah! But look at the trendline since April! Britney is tanking in the numbers and Obama SURGING!

It's clear Obama will over-take Britney in the race, sometime in September. . . Oh, wait.

Nevermind.; July 30, 2008 4:34 PM
thisniss said...: The focus on Britney just made me think John McCain = Bob Dole. Not sure about the strategy there. Old Republicans leering at trashy young women never seemed like a winner to me, and given McCain's, um, personal history? Those are associations he should not want.; July 30, 2008 4:40 PM
Stuart said...: "obama" beats out "britney" handily.; July 30, 2008 4:41 PM
Cugel said...: "Jack-be-nimble said...

Team McCain keep punching day after day, scoring vote after vote, with Obama atempting rope-a dope strategy. Rope-a-dope only works in boxing and only if your opponent is a dope."

You right-wingers need to get your heads out of your butts! This isn't 2004!

Bush could get away with that crap because he had a built in Partisan ID advantage. McCain doesn't.

4 more years of Bush have given Democrats a 10% lead in partisan ID. That means the more McCain goes nuclear with the negative ads, the more Dems will rally to Obama.

McCain is solving Obama's biggest problem for him -- how to rally the base of his party, some of whom were alienated by the bitter and close primary with Hillary.

By October if McCain keeps this up, Democratic support will be right around 89%, just what Kerry's was.

Take a look at Nate's spreadsheet calculator. Plug in the numbers yourself:

Give McCain a Bush-like 93% of Republicans. Give Obama 89% of Democrats. Split Independents McCain 48%-Obama 46% (Obama currently leads among Independents, but assume McCain will reverse that with his lies).

Result? Obama wins by +5.5%, in a CRUSHING LANDSLIDE VICTORY!

In fact, try and assume that McCain somehow rallies Independents through his scum-bag attacks enough to win Independents by 15% -- which is totally impossible, because Independents and low-information voters are turned off by negative attacks. But, plug those numbers in! (This will drive down turnout among Independents).

McCain STILL loses the popular vote by 1.3%, which means that Obama has a better than 60% chance of winning the election.

This is just a FATAL strategy for McCain. It rallies the base and gets Bush-lovin' fools all excited and happy: "at last McCain is attacking! Go McCain! Rip that fraud Obama!

Ha! Ha! Obama's such a LOSER!!"

But to the rest of America it just looks more and more like a traveling freak-show. We're not getting the joke. We just see a vicious old man bent on personal destruction, talking obsessively about Obama, and not presenting much of a case why he should be the next president, other than that he's "not Obama."

That's not going to sway many Democrats, and it doesn't matter what Republicans think this election.; July 30, 2008 4:52 PM
Christopher said...: CNN Poll 51-44 Obama

CNN Ticker "Poll shows Obama's trip didn't change race"

Ummmm, what?

Seriously, these people need to employ Nate so he can tell them how to interpret polls. He GAINED in that time period. So, it didn't 'change the race'; Obama is still willing handily -- he wouldn't want to change it.; July 30, 2008 4:55 PM
JRS said...: This is fun! Obama has more web traffic (1.0) than President Bush (3.0) who is also behind John McCain (4.2). Bob Barr (.02) and Ralph Nader (.04) have little web presence while McKinney is a no show.; July 30, 2008 4:57 PM
johnmccainissoold said...: You don't know the half of it. Check out this one:

http://www.google.com/trends?q=barack+obama+naked%2C+britney+spears+naked%2C+paris+hilton+naked&ctab=0&geo=all&date=2008&sort=0

On that Obama doesn't even "have enough search volume for ranking"!; July 30, 2008 4:58 PM
DarienCrow said...: NC moderate said...

Is yet another war part of McCain's "Endless War" campaign strategy? Do you wonder why younger voters are flocking to Obama? Dying in another war is not that appealing to the people who would actually have to fight it.

BTW, what army would you use to attack Iran?

Our military is all voluntary... amazing with all the dems attempts to reinstate the draft. If you don't want to join the military you don't have to. I myself would oppose any attempt to draft our kids.

We won't need an army to take out Iran. Israel will do it by air with the support of the U.S. and our allies.; July 30, 2008 4:58 PM
Robby said...: During this month of history, July 21, 1996, in the CNN/USA Today/ Gallup Poll, the Democratic nominee for president polled a slim 50% majority against his seemingly geriatric Republican opponent, with only nominal third-party opposition

For final results, please see Presidential Inauguration January 1997.

(thanks for the idea, Jack Black!); July 30, 2008 4:59 PM
Russell said...: P.S. Obama is bigger than Jesus?!

http://www.google.com/trends?q=obama%2C+jesus&ctab=0&geo=all&date=2008&sort=0; July 30, 2008 5:05 PM
joshua said...: new rasmussen NE, poll mccain up 19. MS out in a few mins; July 30, 2008 5:07 PM
joshua said...: the MS poll came out mccain up 12. 54,42. great news for mccain here now.; July 30, 2008 5:13 PM
Brad said...: Well, Paris is just like Barrack. Barack was born to extremely poor parents, and raised by his grandparents in Kansas. Paris is a rich socialite raised by nannies in CA, and she was in KS once.

Barack is a professor at the best law school in the country, and Paris has learned alot about the law while in jail.

Barack is married, has great kids, and a super smart wife. Paris wants to have kids, she said so, and was in a sex tape with a guy.

This ad is dead on perfect! They are the same person for gosh sake!; July 30, 2008 5:14 PM
Virginia Conservative said...: Mississippi will be a swing state when assholes grow teeth.

Seriously can they poll more important states like Ohio ad Michigan more often?; July 30, 2008 5:14 PM
Lupercal said...: tomveiltomveil said...

You're basing your research on a faulty premise. Obama is a one-name celebrity, so people search for "obama", not "barack obama." When you input it that way, Obama beats the girls handily:

http://www.google.com/trends?q=obama%2C+%22britney+spears%22%2C+%22paris+hilton%22&ctab=0&geo=all&date=2008&sort=0

so does mccain you noob.

http://www.google.com/trends?q=mccain%2C+%22britney+spears%22%2C+%22paris+hilton%22&ctab=0&geo=all&date=2008&sort=0; July 30, 2008 5:18 PM
NC moderate said...: "We won't need an army to take out Iran. Israel will do it by air with the support of the U.S. and our allies."

You are insane as well as stupid. Do you think the US can just bomb anybody we want? Do you think China and Russia would do nothing? You don't think bombing Iran would require yet more troops?

Again, is McCain's strategy to engage in endless wars?; July 30, 2008 5:18 PM
Robby said...: MS is a weird state; if AA participation were proportional to demographics, MS would be in play this year. With Obama as candidate, you gotta think that AA turnout is gonna increase (the primaries were good evidence of that). The question, of course, is how much.

So I'm all for polling MS, but yes, not as much as much as OH and MI.; July 30, 2008 5:19 PM
Mason said...: Huh... That MS poll is much closer to 538's regression than any previous polls.; July 30, 2008 5:20 PM
Robby said...: http://www.google.com/trends?q=mccain%2C+spears%2C+obama%2C+hilton&ctab=0&geo=all&date=2008&sort=0

#1 "hilton"
#2 "obama"
#3 "spears"
#4 "mccain"

Of course, the "hilton" numbers are inflated by people searching for both the hotel and the "celebrity" heiress, but I think the point is made all the same.; July 30, 2008 5:22 PM
jeremy said...: That CNN poll confirms what I've thought. Both of these of these candidates may has well have been campaigning in Siberia as most Americans just don't pay attention in the summer.; July 30, 2008 5:23 PM
eve said...: I googled "pissing in the wind" and McCain Campaign was the top result.; July 30, 2008 5:27 PM
Mason said...: Jeremy said:
"Both of these of these candidates may has well have been campaigning in Siberia as most Americans just don't pay attention in the summer."

That's probably why Obama went to Europe and the war zones during the summer. He figured he could take time off the U.S. trail, take a media cycle or two, and meet some movers and shakers. That sounds like a good idea for a working European Vacation.

Oh... And the Nude Beaches. Can't forget about them.; July 30, 2008 5:29 PM
Jeffrey said...: The funniest thing about this ad and similar ads and statements from McCain is that his campaign message can be boiled down to:

"He's popular so you shouldn't vote for him."

Its a strange negative attack and one I admit I've never seen before. Its not "he furloughed murderers", "he sleeps with interns the age of his daughter" or even "some of the people that were in the navy with him want to make up lies about him".

He's popular. That is the thrust of the negative attack.

Interesting.

I've said repeatedly. Negative attack ads only work if the American people are genuinely scared of what you are attacking the guy with. If the people look at it and say "thats all you got??", there is a serious backlash.

I can't remember the last time I saw anything the GOP did that talked about McCain positively instead of Obama negatively.

His campaign slogan really ought to be "No You Can't".

If I was McCain, I'd take a little time off of the negative stuff and build up my own case. Then I'd find some real thing to attack Obama on and emphasize it.

I don't think that swing voters will vote for Obama because he is popular but if this is the best slam McCain can come up with, Obama's going to cruise to a landslide.; July 30, 2008 5:32 PM
Jeffrey said...: The funniest thing about this ad and similar ads and statements from McCain is that his campaign message can be boiled down to:

"He's popular so you shouldn't vote for him."

Its a strange negative attack and one I admit I've never seen before. Its not "he furloughed murderers", "he sleeps with interns the age of his daughter" or even "some of the people that were in the navy with him want to make up lies about him".

He's popular. That is the thrust of the negative attack.

Interesting.

I've said repeatedly. Negative attack ads only work if the American people are genuinely scared of what you are attacking the guy with. If the people look at it and say "thats all you got??", there is a serious backlash.

I can't remember the last time I saw anything the GOP did that talked about McCain positively instead of Obama negatively.

His campaign slogan really ought to be "No You Can't".

If I was McCain, I'd take a little time off of the negative stuff and build up my own case. Then I'd find some real thing to attack Obama on and emphasize it.

I don't think that swing voters will vote for Obama because he is popular but if this is the best slam McCain can come up with, Obama's going to cruise to a landslide.; July 30, 2008 5:32 PM
Jack-be-nimble said...: Cugel said:

"Bush could get away with that crap because he had a built in Partisan ID advantage. McCain doesn't."

Partisn ID means nothing if they don't vote. See LV screening from USA Today/Gallup.; July 30, 2008 5:41 PM
DarienCrow said...: NC moderate said...

You are insane as well as stupid. Do you think the US can just bomb anybody we want? Do you think China and Russia would do nothing? You don't think bombing Iran would require yet more troops?

Again, is McCain's strategy to engage in endless wars?

I assure you I am sane and obviously not stupid. Typical of you to attack me personally.

It is the prime objective of all military commanders to END war by victory. An army would be needed in Iran if they actually needed our presence to implement regime change with our hands-on help... like it was in Iraq. The people of Iran are ready to take control of their own country. They are just under the fist of a lunitic and an oppressive government. Take the power away from the lunitic and they will be fine. The only objective with Iran is to eliminate the threat of nuclear weapons. I assure you they don't want them for peaceful reasons. Take the lunitic down, eliminate the threat, and regime change will occur without the need for ground forces.

I must remind you that the U.S. policy with Iraq was regime change. That policy was implemented by William Jefferson Clinton. That policy was enforced by the one that had the guts to do it.; July 30, 2008 5:43 PM
Pander said...: Joshua wrote:
the MS poll came out mccain up 12. 54,42. great news for mccain here now.
------

Really? Great news? It's what I'd call re-assuring, but nowhere near great. I misread your earlier post, thinking you said NH was McCain up 19. Nearly scared me to death. Nebraska and MS are solid reds, anything short of double digits raises question marks, anything about 25 could be a bragging point. In between? Neutral.

But I guess it's one thing you can say went McCain's way today. I can't wait to see how Keith skewers today's Britney ad.

btw - This has been one of the funniest collections of comments I've seen in a while. Amen for requiring accounts.; July 30, 2008 5:44 PM
Jeffrey said...: "MS is a weird state; if AA participation were proportional to demographics, MS would be in play this year"

The 2004 MS exit poll showed the black vote at 34% of the total. The census shows black population at 37%.

Its a myth that blacks have historically voted at far lower numbers than their populations. Historically they vote almost as much as anyone else.

The problem is that whites in MS are overwhelmingly Rep. Bush won 85-14 among whites in 2004. Far higher than any region outside the deep south.

Unless a drastic rise in black turnout is accompanied by a drastic fall in white turnout (paging vice pres Romney), its still out of reach.; July 30, 2008 5:45 PM
Rob said...: "Take the lunitic down, eliminate the threat, and regime change will occur without the need for ground forces."

Stop it, you're killing me! Yes, they will welcome us with flowers, and the transition will be completely smooth, just like it was in Iraq.

Keep the funny jokes flowing.; July 30, 2008 5:45 PM
Jeffrey said...: "Partisn ID means nothing if they don't vote. See LV screening from USA Today/Gallup."

Even the head of Gallup questioned the LV screen this early in the race and said the RV number was probably a better predictor for November.

I guess we'll see in November, but I don't think Obama will have any problem with base mobilization; July 30, 2008 5:47 PM
Raumfahrer said...: WOW...all I can say is, I'm really really glad DarienCrow isn't running military or foreign policy in this country.

"The people of Iran are ready to take control of their own country. They are just under the fist of a lunitic and an oppressive government. Take the power away from the lunitic and they will be fine."

First of all, it's spelled LUNATIC, just like MORMON is spelled....like that, and not MORMAN as you wrote in another post.

Secondly, didn't all of the Republicans say the EXACT same thing about Iraq (the people are ready for democracy, but their dictator won't let them!!)...how did that whole thing work out, by the way?; July 30, 2008 5:49 PM
tomthress said...: "Really? Great news? It's what I'd call re-assuring, but nowhere near great."

Rasmussen's last two MS polls actually had Obama within 6, so a 12-point lead is a pretty nice improvement. Although, as somebody else noted above, +12 is damn close to Nate's regression for MS, so this isn't exactly a surprise.

Likewise, the NE numbers look better than what had been out there for McCain before.

At a discrete level, it doesn't change anything - NE and MS are going for McCain in November, and we already knew that - but it should push the SuperTracker in McCain's direction.; July 30, 2008 5:49 PM
Raumfahrer said...: tomthress --

Isn't the super tracker only connected to the national polls, not the state polls? I thought it was, in which case, these state polls wouldn't move the supertracker...but of course, I could easily be wrong here.; July 30, 2008 5:52 PM
Rob said...: State polls do affect the supertracker..; July 30, 2008 5:52 PM
Rob said...: Did the new NE poll break it down by congressional districts? I think nebraska actually awards EVs by district, not winner take all, so in theory Obama could compete for 1 of them.; July 30, 2008 5:52 PM
Jeffrey said...: "[Iranians] are just under the fist of a lunitic and an oppressive government. Take the power away from the lunitic and they will be fine. The only objective with Iran is to eliminate the threat of nuclear weapons."

They do have elections in Iran.

I think you are misreading the Iranian public if you think that attacking them would make them less happy with their own lunatic leadership.

There are a lot of Americans unhappy with Bush that would rally to his side if a foreign government tried to attack our country to get rid of him. Don't you realize that extremists only get more power when you put them under attack?

Ahmadnijad is not the most powerful person in Iran. I guarantee you he would quickly become the most powerful person if you attacked them.; July 30, 2008 5:53 PM
David said...: Regarding the MS numbers, it appears that Obama tends to run about 5 points behind Musgrove. Musgrove also did several points worse than last time.

Can anyone with access to crosstabs tell us if the percentage of black voters decreased in this poll as opposed to the previous Rasmussen one?

Not that I don't think McCain +12 is reasonable, I do. Just wondering.; July 30, 2008 5:54 PM
Raumfahrer said...: Thanks Rob -- I'm not too into the details of the model here, just the results.; July 30, 2008 5:54 PM
Jeffrey said...: "Did the new NE poll break it down by congressional districts? I think nebraska actually awards EVs by district, not winner take all, so in theory Obama could compete for 1 of them."

I've heard this theory. In theory he could pick up an electoral vote in the Omaha cd. In reality, that cd is still R+9. I don't think its worth the bother. Its hard to see him winning there unless he's already won the whole country. Its only 1 ev. If he pulls off an upset in ND, he gets 3, so ND might make sense on a ROI basis.; July 30, 2008 5:55 PM
NC moderate said...: "Take the lunatic down, eliminate the threat, and regime change will occur without the need for ground forces."

Right. I must remind you neocons thought the US troops would be greeted as liberators and that we would out of Iraq in 90 days.

And pray tell, what is the definition of "victory"? You blather that word about without describing what it means. Does it mean withdrawing significant amounts of troops in roughly 16 if the condition on the ground are favorable? Then Obama is for victory while McCain supports 100 years of endless war.

Again, do you think bombing Iran will have no repercussions? Did you learn nothing from Iraq?; July 30, 2008 5:56 PM
PeteKent said...: The latest Rasmussen tracker shows the race somewhat becalmed. Without leaners the race is the same as yesterday Obama +1, with leaners Obama moves out in front by a point to +2. In Gallup McCain continues to edge up.

Ras reports on the high number of uncommitted voters that are out there right now compared with 2004 (14%). The numbers are much higher among Democrats than Republicans (33 v. 19%) and fully 48% of independents fall into the uncommitted category. When pressed, the uncommitted vote breaks for McCain at about 3:2.

Last night on Fox News pollster Frank Luntz was talking about how Obama may have reached a ceiling in the high 40s. It seems nothing he does can boost his number beyond that mark. Obama’s supporters may be tempted to say that McCain has a ceiling of his own, and it is in the low 40s, so Obama occupies the enviable position.

Bear in mind, though, that Obama has had a long history in the primaries of failing to close the deal, with Mrs. Clinton staging dramatic wins despite his being the all but anointed, certain nominee. The reason: uncommitted voters broke decisively for her. We have evidence that that might be the case against Obama in the general. Worse you a potential Bradley effect lurking behind the numbers, suggesting that the race is much closer than it appears.

While McCain clearly has some catching up to do, it appears ever so slightly he is doing it. The narrative on Obama is going poorly. He is viewed as arrogant and presumptuous while McCain is out there getting credit for his boring townhalls, speaking to ordinary Americans in largely working class towns. That he has drilling and the victory embodied in the surge on his side are big plusses.

Some have already compared this race to the old story of the tortoise and the hare. It is seemingly more and more apt.

Obama may get a bounce out of his VP pick, especially if it is Bayh, but like others it is likely to prove more of a bloomlet. The next big test will be where the race stands after the conventions. Expectations are so high for the Denver Rally that Obama may have overplayed his hand. And with its “green” mandate – right down to the food – it should prove fruitful fodder for those who want to show the Democrats as out of touch with the needs of ordinary Americans as they pursue their new secular religion at the cost of high energy. That religion, of course, being environmentalism, the altar at which they all worship.; July 30, 2008 5:56 PM
RWD said...: "In theory he could pick up an electoral vote in the Omaha cd. In reality, that cd is still R+9. I don't think its worth the bother."

Probably not. Was just curious if the poll results were broken down based on that.; July 30, 2008 5:58 PM
Juris said...: Some other state polls being reported today (spotted these on RealClearPolitics):

Michigan (Public Policy Polling): Obama 46, McCain 43

Pennsylvania (Strategic Vision): Obama 49, McCain 40

Washington (Strategic Vision): Obama 48, McCain 37; July 30, 2008 5:59 PM
RWD said...: Pete, apparently republicans are also trying to worship at the environmental altar, planning their "greenest convention yet"

http://www.gopconvention2008.com/features/greenfactsheet.pdf; July 30, 2008 6:01 PM
Jeffrey said...: "Can anyone with access to crosstabs tell us if the percentage of black voters decreased in this poll as opposed to the previous Rasmussen one?"

The latest poll had McCain at 77%-13% among whites. It didn't poll a single black McCain supporter. Obama got 100% of them. When I did the math, it implied 68% white, 32% black electorate.

If we keep the same percentages among races (Obama's black support is obviously at least a little too high), Obama needs a 39.1% black turnout to win it.; July 30, 2008 6:01 PM
Juris said...: Oooops, the two Strategic Vision polls were reported out and incorporated by Nate yesterday.; July 30, 2008 6:02 PM
NC moderate said...: "While McCain clearly has some catching up to do, it appears ever so slightly he is doing it."

My compliments "Pete Kent". You latest laughable post is not written in your usual over-the-top Iraqi Information Minister mode that we have all come to know and love.

"Expectations are so high for the Denver Rally that Obama may have overplayed his hand. And with its “green” mandate – right down to the food – it should prove fruitful fodder for those who want to show the Democrats as out of touch with the needs of ordinary Americans as they pursue their new secular religion at the cost of high energy. That religion, of course, being environmentalism, the altar at which they all worship"

Oh wait... never mind. Americans should worship at the altar of Big Oil while McCain gets big checks from Big Oil.; July 30, 2008 6:03 PM
Jeffrey said...: More on MS..

This is definitely a stretch but I question whether McCain's lead is really 12 points.

Black turnout was 34% there in 04. The extent is a question but I think it has to go up as a percentage this time.

In addition to the obvious fact that Obama's candidacy will draw more black voters to the polls, McCain is nowhere near as popular in the bible belt as Bush was in 04.

I expect black turnout to be around 38% of the total in MS. Its still not enough.

If McCain does something to alienate the religious right between now and the election, Obama has a shot there.

If the final total is McCain 82-18 among whites and Obama 97-3 among blacks with 41% black turnout, Obama squeaks by.; July 30, 2008 6:12 PM
DarienCrow said...: WOW! Getting it from all sides!

Sorry that I don't put my posts through spell check before I push to post but then I would deny you all the ability to attack me personally again.

Bush went to war to avenge the Towers with an overwhelming 90% approval. It amazes me that 7 years later 40% of those people say now they were part of that 10%.

Of course unless you were actually in congress at the time and you have a vote to show where you stood. Then you have to say Bush lied to you.

I supported the war in 2001 and I still support it. I wanted Saddam taken out because he supported terrorism. The lunAtic wants to kill our troops, eliminate Israel, and destroy our way of life through terrorism. What do you want to do? Pull out... say Bush lied... let them bomb Israel... see where the chips fall.

Am I really insane and stupid?; July 30, 2008 6:12 PM
DarienCrow said...: WOW! Getting it from all sides!

Sorry that I don't put my posts through spell check before I push to post but then I would deny you all the ability to attack me personally again.

Bush went to war to avenge the Towers with an overwhelming 90% approval. It amazes me that 7 years later 40% of those people say now they were part of that 10%.

Of course unless you were actually in congress at the time and you have a vote to show where you stood. Then you have to say Bush lied to you.

I supported the war in 2001 and I still support it. I wanted Saddam taken out because he supported terrorism. The lunAtic wants to kill our troops, eliminate Israel, and destroy our way of life through terrorism. What do you want to do? Pull out... say Bush lied... let them bomb Israel... see where the chips fall.

Am I really insane and stupid?; July 30, 2008 6:12 PM
moondancer said...: The whole thing comes down to this: can Obama's uppitiness countervail the girls slutiness. Inquiring minds want to know.; July 30, 2008 6:13 PM
eve said...: Pete Kent,
It's a bit silly to say Obama could not "close the deal" in the primary after he has won the primary.

And here is another update for you and Fox:

The latest CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll numbers:

According to the survey — the first national poll conducted entirely after the Democratic presidential candidate's trip to Iraq, Afghanistan, the Middle East, and Europe — the race for the White House has remained virtually unchanged since late June, with Obama holding a 51-44 percent edge over Sen. John McCain. In a similar poll conducted one month ago, Obama held a 5-point lead over the senator from Arizona , 50-45 percent.; July 30, 2008 6:17 PM
michael said...: Images trump words, esp. w/low info voters. The last 3 McCain ads all show Obama looking bautiful, charismatic and either heard and/or seen in front of cheering throngs. McCain is so marginalized that HIS OWN CAMPAIGN put out a statement saying "the candidate does not speak for the campaign". I will repeat that statement: HIS OWN CAMPAIGN put out a statement saying "the candidate does not speak for the campaign".

Anyone paying a little attention will glance up and say "oh, there's that handsome and charismatic and popular Obama. And, oh look, there's that grumpy old man again at the end of the message."

Bad choice, ad-wise. Pete Kent, you have the market cornered on silk purse out of sow ear spin...

We are now at day 87, PK. And not ONE poll of registered voters has shown McCain with a national lead (not one poll of likely voters either, if you discount yesterday's gallup fiction that 98% of McCain voters are likely, and only 84% of Obama, and the country is divicded in 1/2 between Dems and Repubs)...hope you have a good spin second serve...; July 30, 2008 6:19 PM
jqb said...: I assure you I am sane
and obviously not stupid.

Sorry, but no.; July 30, 2008 6:26 PM
NC moderate said...: "I wanted Saddam taken out because he supported terrorism."

Sorry, unsupported neocon lie along with the WMDs.

I was always against the war in Iraq but for the war in Afghanistan where the terrorists are.

You want to get the US into a third war when our armed forces are stretched to the breaking point. And getting the US involved in another war is just plain crazy.

Is you solution to foreign policy problems to just bomb everybody?; July 30, 2008 6:26 PM
John said...: The Obama camp just released a new ad responding to McCain:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zPPLSHKH0h4; July 30, 2008 6:30 PM
Jeffrey said...: "Bush went to war to avenge the Towers with an overwhelming 90% approval. "

It amazes me that after all this time, you guys still confuse Afghanistan with Iraq.

We the Democratic party supported the war in Afghanistan. We still do. The war in Iraq had absolutely nothing to do with 9/11. If you don't know that by now, you are totally clueless.

Do you really think all arabs are the same?; July 30, 2008 6:31 PM
AnotherMike said...: Nebraska does award EVs by congressional district. IIRC, the least conservative CD is east Nebraska and it generally polls about 10 points more Democratic/less Republican than the statewide total. So, this poll would suggest Obama is down about 9 points in his best district. In some prior polls, you could infer that he was very competitive in his best CD. Probably a long shot to win an EV here, but maybe not much more so than SD or AK. The cost of advertising has to be cheap and TV ads in Iowa would also reach this district. I wouldn't write it off yet.; July 30, 2008 6:35 PM
anon said...: What does John McCain have against Paris Hilton? She's a young, rich, skinny, pretty, blonde heiress...just like his wife, Cindy.; July 30, 2008 6:45 PM
AnotherMike said...: Kick ass Obama response to McSame's grumpy old man campaign ads!; July 30, 2008 6:47 PM
Jeffrey said...: "The cost of advertising has to be cheap and TV ads in Iowa would also reach this district. I wouldn't write it off yet."

That district is basically Omaha. I decent part of the Omaha suburbs are in Iowa so I could see running a couple ads there.

It sort of depends on whether McCain bothers to campaign in Iowa. I've gotten every indication they've already written it off. Obama already has a far better ground game in place for Iowa since McCain skipped it during the primaries and Obama spent about 6 months there. If McCain doesn't challenge it (and I think he would be stupid if he did), I don't see Obama spending much money in Iowa. Just run the ground game without the air. I think the ROI in Montana and North Dakota is far better than Omaha.

Another question. What does the simulator say is the exact probability of McCain winning by a single EV? I can't quite tell by the chart. If there was some obvious scenario that led to a single vote McCain win, I'd be more inclined to invest in Omaha.; July 30, 2008 6:47 PM
dwbh said...: I assure you I am sane and obviously not stupid.

That's exactly what a stupid insane person would say!; July 30, 2008 6:51 PM
AnotherMike said...: Another question. What does the simulator say is the exact probability of McCain winning by a single EV? I can't quite tell by the chart. If there was some obvious scenario that led to a single vote McCain win, I'd be more inclined to invest in Omaha.

A few possibilities, certainly not a definitive list:

Kerry + OH - NH
Kerry + IO + VA - NH
Kerry +CO + IN/MO -NH
Kerry + IO + CO

The scenario analysis has a 269-269 tie at 0.54%. I'd guess a 268-270 result has about the same likelihood. I'd also want an extra EV in case of a 269-269 result. Although it seems likely Obama would win in the House, I would not want to take my chances on wheeling and dealing or a faithless elector or even a mistake. Remember Kerry lost an EV in 2004 because someone wrote in Edwards, apparently by mistake.

Your point about Iowa is well taken, however. Unless it starts to tighten up, no reason to spend lots of money on ads there.; July 30, 2008 7:00 PM
jakam said...: ""That religion, of course, being environmentalism, the altar at which they all worship""

Actually...the environment is a significant factor in why Obama is so much closer to McCain in the polls in Montana and the Dakotas then Democrats tend to be.; July 30, 2008 7:37 PM
Jeffrey said...: Several of those possibilities look very realistic to me.

I guess there is a decent point to investing in Omaha. Its hard for me to picture him winning Omaha unless Iowa is already won. Its also hard for me to picture him winning Colorado without winning New Mexico. I think the most likely Omaha matters scenario is Kerry + IO + VA - NH.

I'm not particularly worried about faithless electors or the house. I guess anything can happen though.; July 30, 2008 7:40 PM
Virginia Conservative said...: I'll be the first Republican to say that ad was incredibly stupid. Try harder, John. This just makes you look jealous.

Plus the Brittney Spears thing reminds people of Dole.; July 30, 2008 7:44 PM
jakam said...: It's impossible to win by 1 EV unless an elector casts their vote for someone other than McCain or Obama (or doesn't vote at all).; July 30, 2008 7:45 PM
Black Political Analysis said...: According to mancrush.com, Barack is 4th behind Jesus Christ, Elvis, & George Washington; July 30, 2008 8:06 PM
Fleisch said...: Thanks for the link to Google Trends. It helped explain McCain's appearance in the dairy aisle: he was trying to bask in the reflected popularity of cheese.

http://xrl.in/azc; July 30, 2008 8:40 PM
Nataraj said...: You need to search right.

http://www.google.com/trends?q=%22obama%22%7C%22barack%22%7C%22barack+obama%22%2C+%22britney+spears%22%7C%22spears%22%7C%22britney%22%2C+%22Paris+Hilton%22%2C+%22McCain%22%7C%22John+Mccain%22&ctab=0&geo=all&date=2008&sort=0

http://img237.imageshack.us/img237/346/bobssw1.png

Google allows you to OR search items using the OR operator "|". So try various combinations of BO, with BS, Paris Hilton and McCain - as in the above link.

Ofcourse no good way to break PH.; July 30, 2008 9:31 PM
Jeffrey said...: VACon,

I like you. You're smart. You don't just repeat back GOP talking points. You actually think about things before posting.

Apparently, one of McCain's old aides agrees with us. The Brittany ad is just stupid and counterproductive. Of course, I'm a Democrat so I hope he keeps running it. Its a great ad John. Why don't you use your whole budget on it?

This is from politicalwire.com

John Weaver, a long time confidant and friend of Sen. John McCain, told Marc Ambinder that McCain's current campaign strategy "diminishes John McCain" and the recent ad linking Sen. Barack Obama to Paris Hilton and Britney Spears was "childish."

Said Weaver: "For McCain to win in such troubled times, he needs to begin telling the American people how he intends to lead us. That McCain exists. He can inspire the country to greatness. There is legitimate mockery of a political campaign now, and it isn't at Obama's. For McCain's sake, this tomfoolery needs to stop."; July 30, 2008 9:52 PM
David said...: This seems even more interesting:

http://www.google.com/trends?q=%22barack+obama%22%2C+%22hillary+clinton%22%2C+%22john+mccain%22%2C+%22george+bush%22&ctab=0&geo=all&date=ytd&sort=0; July 30, 2008 10:02 PM
eve said...: DarienCrow said:
Bush went to war to avenge the Towers with an overwhelming 90% approval. It amazes me that 7 years later 40% of those people say now they were part of that 10%.

Here is a book for you. Just saw this writeup on Political Wire. Read the last paragraph. Seems there was NOT a high % of people in favor of going to war. We'll have to read the book to get more info:

Out in a couple days: The Opinion Makers: An Insider Exposes the Truth Behind the Polls by David W. Moore.

The author -- a former senior editor of the Gallup Poll -- says that today's opinion polls misfire due to an intrinsic methodological problem: survey results don't differentiate between "those who express deeply held views and those who have hardly, if at all, thought about an issue."

Specifically, Moore notes that in the period leading up to the invasion of Iraq, every major media poll showed substantial public support for a preemptive strike. In truth, there was no majority of Americans calling for war.; July 30, 2008 11:36 PM
Jeffrey said...: "I would love to think that John McCain is a big international celebrity but he's not,"

Rick Davis -- McCain's campaign manager when discussing the new ad

The more I think about this ad, the more I realize how weak it is. McCain is jealous of Obama. Obama is a celebrity and he's not. I can understand how this can get under their skin. But ultimately its not Obama's fault that he is popular. Ultimately there is nothing wrong with being popular. You shouldn't vote for somebody because they are popular, but its just as stupid a reason to vote against somebody.

"Vote for me because I'm jealous of the other guy's popularity" is the most pathetic campaign slogan I have ever heard.

Envy and jealousy are not becoming in a guy that wants to be the leader of the free world.

Seriously, if this is the best McCain's team can up with, they really ought to just give the concession speech right now.; July 30, 2008 11:56 PM
Wa7th said...: Nate's not been trending so well. McCain/Hilton may yet catch down with him, but the 538 527's need to start swiftboating the rest of the field in a huge way, and SOON. Sad. So, so very sad.

http://www.google.com/trends?q=%22obama%22|%22barack%22|%22barack+obama%22%2C+%22britney+spears%22|%22spears%22|%22britney%22%2C+%22Paris+Hilton%22%2C+%22McCain%22|%22John+Mccain%22%2C%22FiveThirtyEight%22|%22Nate+Silver%22|%22Poblano%22|%22Nate%22&ctab=0&geo=all&date=2008&sort=0; July 31, 2008 1:02 AM
Kevin B. O'Reilly said...: Clearly, Obama needs to leak a dimly lit sex tape and/or let the paparazzi catch him going out for a night on the town without wearing underwear.; July 31, 2008 9:33 AM
PeteKent said...: Maybe Larry Sinclair has been hiding one in his closet?; July 31, 2008 11:08 AM
Harry said...: "It amazes me that after all this time, you guys still confuse Afghanistan with Iraq. [...] Do you really think all arabs are the same?"

Just in passing: Afghanistan is not an Arab country.; July 31, 2008 12:45 PM
Acacia said...: i'm probably not the first person to notice this, but obama leads in popularity in the US. he's behind everywhere else. someone should shop this story to the MSM, so they can in turn reassure voters that obama is an american phenomenon and not a german one. that is, as long as we're still talking about issues of no import to anyone with a brain and bills to pay.; July 31, 2008 2:08 PM
John Peterson said...: While Obama celebrity is about as substantive as Spears and Hilton, he has a long way to go on the young female sleaze factor.

Obama is like pR0n for spiritually vacuous, anti-metaphysical, historically naive, self-important moderns who desperately want to believe they can remake the world in the image of their enlightened, sophisticated world view.

But those people are still outnumbered by the hoi polloi who just want to gawk at Lindsey Lohan.; July 31, 2008 2:09 PM
John Peterson said...: @Acacia: Behind everywhere else? I don't think so. The rest of the world has already decided that our next President is Barry Obama.

Thankfully, the American people (of whom the President is the representative, and of no other people), have a say in it.; July 31, 2008 2:15 PM
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7.30.2008

Barack is, like, so popular!

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