Kudos to Gallup for disclosing the process and perils of its likely voter model, but as Alan Abramowitz has noted at Pollster.com, something about the new USA Today/Gallup poll showing John McCain 4 points ahead among likely voters -- but 3 points behind among registered voters -- doesn't quite sit right:How do you get from a 47-44 Obama lead among RVs to a 49-45 McCain lead among LVs?
Whatever one thinks about likely voter models in general, the mathematics of this particular implementation defy credulity. Although, we should probably wait for USA Today to release its crosstabs so we can make sure there wasn't a typographical error of some kind in the write-up.
A few quick calculations shows how. You have 900 RVs and 791 LVs, so that means that among your 109 UVs (that's unlikely voters according to Gallup) Obama leads McCain by a whopping 61% to 7%.
Putting it another way, according to Gallup 16% of registered Obama supporters are unlikely to vote compared with only 2% of registered McCain supporters.
Also, this is a good time to mention Robert Erikson's critique of the extra volatility introduced by Gallup's likely voter model in past election cycles.
7.28.2008
About that McCain +4
@ 7:45 PM
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Is it likely that John McCain is in fact 4 points ahead of Barack Obama? No. Would Nate being giving the poll this kind of scrutiny were the results reversed? Absolutely not. You can nearly always count on Nate to give extra scrutiny to any poll that shows Obama performing worse than expected. His bias is clearly that Obama shouldn't lose this election.
Any guess as to why RCP is using the "likely voter" figure rather than the "registered voter" one in their rolling avg?
I do statistical work for a living (I'm an econometrician), and honestly, what this looks like to me was an attempt to come up with an "objective" poll result most favorable to McCain.
I don't know if that was the intention here, but even if it was, such analysis has its place, I think, although not as a topline polling result. Essentially, doing something like that would be an attempt to quantify a "story" about how McCain can win the election. In this case, from this, that story basically boils down to, "McCain can win if enough Obama supporters stay home on election day", which, to me, isn't terribly interesting or insightful (or likely).
Those exact numbers may be incredulous but the general idea is right. Look at much of the democratic base: blacks, Hispanics, youths, poor people. All of those voter groups underperform at the ballot box.
Another question: why would you ever run a poll a not screen for likely voters? If you're going to poll people who do not vote, why not just ask Canadians or 10 year olds?
Looking beyond the (ridiculous) likely voter result, the fact that Gallup has one poll out that has Obama up by 8 among registered voters, and another poll out that was taken during the exact same time period that shows Obama up by 3 among registered voters should call the legitimacy of both polls into question, no?
Speaking as an Obama supporter, I think it's good to have polls like this sometimes. Otherwise a bored complacency could take over and there is no certainly no space for that. The polls are fun to follow, but they will be close for the next 3 months, and the election will be decided by enthusiasm and turnout.
Or maybe he's giving it scrutiny because of the peculiar nature of it as he writes about-and that McCain hasn't lead in any national poll in a very long time- so a lead of 4 stands out.
He has also been skeptical of +9 polls of late- and of the +12 and +15 national polls by Newseek when they came out.
Don't complain because McCain is losing.
Are you going to update the numbers for today based on the new national polls even though there are no new state polls (like you did over the weekend for Obama's bounce)?
Tim -- I think if you were a bit more neutral you might realize that Nate gives extra scrutiny to any poll that shows results far off from what other polls are showing. This poll is WAY off from other recent polls, even the Gallup daily tracking poll. It could just be small sample size, but that weird a result tends to suggest something not done quite right.
You go to great lengths to downplay any bad news the Obama receives.
Looking forward to visiting this website on Nov 5th.
F U GALLUP!
You are the same guys whose tracking polls goes up and down DEPENDING ON THE DAY OF THE WEEK!!!!
Paul O'Neill on Obama's team of advisors, hmmmmm.
Any poll that is not good news for Obama: IT MUST BE RIGGED! THE INTERNALS ARE WRONG! IT CAN'T BE RIGHT! SOMETHING IS WRONG!
Any poll that favors Obama: Factual polling, its 100% correct, internals are accurate. Great poll, great news.
Anon 7:08, please explain why Obama is way up in three of four Gallup polls.
I don't believe the McCain +4 result for a second.
But I do hope this serves as a wake-up call for the Obama campaign. They've been very lax in going after McCain lately. And with the media overwhelmingly biased in McCain's favor, they can't afford that kind of complacency. Hopefully this will push them to get back on offense, fast.
Even more to the point, Tim, Nate won't ignore the poll in his calculations, unlike, say, Real Clear Politics, which seems just to have ignored the Research 2000 poll, released yesterday, showing Obama up by 12.
It's certainly worth drawing attention to anomalous results, and, at this point, McCain +4 is pretty anomalous. But it'll get factored in, along with everything else.
The Obama up 3 with a MOE +/_ 4 and the Obama up 8 with a MOE +/_ 2 overlap at Obama up 6 or 7. Which is where Obama support likely actually is for all the noise.
Any outlier result deserves scrutiny. Either it is right and all the others are wrong or there is suptin funky goin on. Understanding why they give different results helps us interpret the numbers more intelligently.
I'm still trying to figure out why Nate is weighing the PPP poll in Ohio stronger than the Rasmussen. One is affiliated with a party, and one is independent. Take a guess which one is (D).
Neat site. Cool math.
Not very scientific.
"Would Nate being giving the poll this kind of scrutiny were the results reversed? Absolutely not. "
No shit, because the reverse is far more likely. Just because Nate is debating the polls specifics doesn't mean he's not right. Gallup put out two polls based on results from the same 3 days: one is one of Obama's best numbers ever, and one is Obama's worst number ever. Both of them can't be correct. Based on the preponderance of evidence (ie, every other recent poll), which do you think is the far more likely result?
JT - The PPP Ohio poll has a bigger sample size than the Rasmussen one, so it gets weighted more. Pretty simple.
JT, it's because the PPP poll has twice the sample size as the Rasmussen poll.
Bigger sample size = more accurate results.
"Bigger sample size = more accurate results."
Not necessarily.
Don--as far as I can tell, RCP always takes LV over RV when both are available. Likewise, it always takes "with leaners" over without when both are available.
I'd just finished posting this on the other thread when Nate posted this article.
Here's some more on the Prof. Alan Abramowitz v. Gallup debate about the recent Gallup flip-flop -- their daily tracker poll of RV with a sample size of over 3000 gave Obama a +8 lead, while their poll with USA Today released the same day with Likely Voters gave McCain a -4 lead. Now there's some feedback from Gallup:
"And Abramowitz notes that this isn't the first time Gallup has courted controversy in calculating "likely" voters. "Eight years ago the Gallup organization got in hot water for using a likely voter screen several weeks before Election Day that produced wild fluctuations in candidate preference. At one point, the Gallup tracking poll went from an 8 point Gore lead to an 11 point Bush lead in three days. Of course, this was nonsense. The wild swings in the tracking poll were almost entirely caused by the likely voter screen. Those results were not to be believed. And neither are these."
Jeff Jones of the Gallup Poll pushes back on Abramowitz's critique of their joint USA Today poll by noting that the voter model "assumes a 60 percent voter turnout of national adults. The likely voter sample is weighted to match this assumption, so the weighted sample size of likely [voters] is 604."
Therefore, Jones says Obama's lead among "unlikely voters" is merely 51 percent to 21 percent.
Still, that's a huge margin. And it begs the question: How useful is it to try to estimate, 100 days out from the election, which registered voters are likely to vote -- especially when they favor one candidate so dramatically?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/07/28/two-gallup-polls-
one-day_n_115473.html
The problem with Gallup's "push-back" on this is that their turnout model is based on 2004! It assumes a 60% turnout, which is highly unlikely given the increasing voter registration since then and the likelyhood of a closely contested campaign, plus the clear surge in voter participation in the primaries.
A 62% or even 63% turnout is more likely which would make their sample pretty off-base!
(Take a look at Nate's "World's Simplest Election Projection" spreadsheet available on this site, and see that he assumes about 62% turnout for both parties.
That's a conservative estimate since Democratic registration is way up this year and Obama is putting a lot of effort into registering new voters. Plus black voters likely to be drawn to an Obama candidacy have traditionally lower turnout than Whites, so there's more room to improve turnout there. Hispanics are the real wild-card, since their turnout is particularly low and any significant increase among Hispanic voters on election day would mean an Obama tidal-wave election.
None of this is reflected in Gallup's turnout model or likely voter screen, which is why their RV polling is much more reliable at this point in the election.
Does Obama really have a +8% lead? Probably not, but how much less we simply don't know at this point, and relying on RV polls at least gives us a trend-line to see how the race is going.
Rasmussen, using one of their NUMBER of likely voter screens, which get progressively harder as the election approaches, has Obama's lead at +3. However, no likely voter screen means much at this point in my biased opinion.
@Anon 7:33:
Nothing is necessarily true regardng polling/statistics. Bigger sample size has been given greater weightage by this site. If you don't agree, well there' nothing you can do aout it other than whining.
So according to Gallups 3 question LV model if this is the first election you're voting in and you're only following the election a little in July (there's only 2 options for this question) you're likely not going to vote in Nov. This seems to discriminate against Obama's younger base and minority voters who are inspired for the first time to vote. I realize historically this is true of these demographics but given the uniqueness of this election this template seems flawed. I would love to see the results if they only asked the third question: "Do you, yourself, plan to vote in the presidential election this November, or not?".
how can you base it on 2004, when you know a wave year has happened in 2006 that suggests at the very least things arent like 2004? How does this comport with the record levels of new Democrats being added to the roles in 2008? In FL alone the GOP registered I believe 16,000 and the Democrats over 100,000. What about the numbers one saw in OH and other states? How does this comport with even 2004 where the race was super tight at the height of the GOP's power? Are they saying that we should treat the height of the GOP brand the same as its nadir- remember this is a year in which the GOP has already lost 3 special election in 3 blood red districts (and as I remember with a partisan ratio in one case of 6 o 7 or maybe higher- is that not correct>?) So , again- how does their LV model comport with even what we have seen in the primaries ?
Correct me if I am wrong, but isn't it suppose to be a faux pas to be doing likely voter models now?
I asked this earlier- can some of this be to generate the story so that Gallup gan gain attention in an increasely competitive pollster market. What I mean is whether it's smarter for them to come up with some model , no matter how out of touch it seems
"How do you get from a 47-44 Obama lead among RVs to a 49-45 McCain lead among LVs?"
A timely phone call?
I smell a steaming pile of Steve Schmidt . . .
Obama camp is sweatin' bullets.
"Jack-be-nimble said...
Obama camp is sweatin' bullets."
Not based on this poll they're not.
Gallup's LV screen question: "Have you played shuffleboard in the last 6 months?"
amazing how the mccain trolls leap all over Nate's ass, without even addressing the implausibility that 16% of Obama's voters are unlikely and 2% of McCain's are.
Oh, and the other national polls that came out in the last day?
Gallup tracking: Obama 48-40
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 48-45
Research 2000 (the one RCP ignores) Obama 51-39
PPP Obama 50-45
So to sum up, the other 4 polls and Gallup's one where 98% of McCain voters are likely voters and you get 48.4 to 42.8. If you throw out the two outliers: USA/Gallup and Research 2000 you get 48.7 to 43.3 for Obama. So, as Nate observed, the logical observation is that Obama has a 5 or 6 point lead nationally.
BTW, can someone besides a troll tell me why RCP is ignoring Research 2000? Is it the Moulitsas connection? I know RCP tilts right in its editorial slant (Gosh, we don't have enough anti-Obama editorials on their home page yet), but I didn't think it migrated to their polling averages. It is laughable when people fulminate about partisan polling bias by dems as they happily cite Scott (I worked on W's 2004 campaign) the right-wing evangelical Christian Rasmussen's #s. If the premise is that Rasmussen can bracket out his bias and produce credible polls, why is the same benefit of the doubt not given to PPP?
EVERYONE on this board has a bias, but the whole point is to look at the numbers. We all hope they tell us what we want to hear, but just as one Florida poll is not going to convince me that Obama is going to win there, I would hope a rational conservative could concede Nate's point as to the strangeness of the USA Today poll's likely voter model, esp. when juxtaposed against the 4 other polls utterly contrary to it.
Notice to Trolls:
If you really think that Nate and the site are "biased" and have nothing constructive to offer in terms of methodology, then why don't you FUCK OFF!?
Nobody needs idiot right-wing trolls who have nothing more to say than "If the polls went the other way Nate wouldn't report it! He's biased!"
I agree with Tim's comments. Weird polls that are probably bad or outliers are derided when it is positive for McCain, but nearly ignored when Obama is up. E.g.: Obama up +15 in new Newsweek poll! This yielded a few "Really?"s, "I hope so, but who knows?" But no one questioned that nutty poll. But, having said all this, I love this site. It's addictive and I check it about every 2 days or so. I think you are turning into the Karl Rove of the left (and I mean that as a compliment, in terms of strategy!).
This is the beginning of the Fall of Obama.
Face it, he lost after his racist pastor opened his mouth in March. Its been downhill from there. Wright, Ayers, throwing his grandma under the bus, flip flopping, and now heaping abuse on the military.
Right off the cliff, liberal lemmings!
Thanks for clearing this up, Nate: I almost pooed in my pants when I saw this poll.
In terms of the weird numbers for unlikely voters, don't forget n=100 in a poll of 900 yields a HUGE margin of error. I would put slightly more faith in the likely voters, as the sample is much larger than the unlikely voters. The unlikely voter result is probably wrong.
Americans don't want to elect a racist who is buddies with terrorists and throws his grandma under the bus. Face facts!
Ah, yes, the last four months have been cruel to Barack Obama. Ever since we first heard about the Rev. Wright, Obama's polling average has plummeted from 45% all the way down to 46.5%. McCain, of course, has been on a roll, and has soared from 45.3 all the way up to 43.3.
Where McCain had lead by a measly 0.3%, he now leads by the much more spectacular -3.2%. The absolute value of his lead has increased tenfold in just four months! Ignoring that pesky little minus sign, he's doing great.
With Obama crashing and burning like this, can doom be far behind?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html
(I share the oft-expressed doubts about the integrity of RCP's polling averages, but they have an easy-to-read chart, and we lefties might as well have the bad news in the worst possible form, right?).
Chris-
If we assume you are correct, how can taking away 11% of those polled in such an uneven fashion NOT lead to a fatally flawed poll? And what good polling org would ever release such a stupid number?
Carter and Iran
Dukakis and the tank ride
Kerry and Swiftboaters
Obama and snubbing the wounded vets
This election is over.
Americans won't elect a racist who heaps abuse on the military.
Maybe he can pick Wright for VP! LOL!
McCain and his poor speaking ability
McCain and his temper
election over
We always heard what a "poor speaker"Bush was from you liberals, and guess who won?
BUSH!
Cugel (and others):
Not everybody who finds Obama distasteful is a troll. From what I've read, the difference between the two Gallup polls is that they are not the same people, but rather two completely different polls. I don't think Nate is taking that into consideration with his analysis.
But haven't we had enough times over the last 40 years where the youth vote was going to change everything?! Somehow it never really does. And 62% turnout? Dream on - the 60% last time was a record.
The most important statistic, it seems to me, is that at the moment about 10% more people self-identify as Democrats than as Republicans, and yet Nate has the popular vote at about 2% different. If I were king of the Democrats, I'd be tearing my hair out - Obama should simply be ahead by 10 points, give or take, but he's never been that high.
Frankly, Obama scares me because I haven't a clue how he'd govern. My guess is that he'd have to govern from the far left, since so many of his backers are there. But the guy seems to get into telling the Germans that they have to help us in Afghanistan, and AIPAC that Jerusalem should be the undivided capital of Israel, etc. Then the handlers have to issue "clarifications". Having matured exactly in the revolutionary 60s, I find virtually his entire world-view, to the extent that it is consistent, to be of a piece with "movement" ideas from that time. I've seen so many other politicians of great intellect and talent go aground trying to fulfill those dreams that I'm not surprised to hear that the slumlords he helped to build public housing in Chicago built rat traps which have had to be abandoned. While Mr. Obama becomes an expert on arugula...
There's a reason that hardworking people of all classes tend to vote to the right of the spectrum. Why should they pay for "midnight basketball" and all the other ideas dreamed up by creative leftists! My favorite statistic from last time is that 2/3 of single women voted for Kerry and 2/3 of married women with children voted for Bush.
Peace.
Rezko, Ayers, Wright, Michelle, Daley, snubbing the troops, his grandma....whats next liberals?
this site is infested with left wing & right wing nuts
Obama is a going to win it like it or not
Fu** off trolls
Americans don't want to hear someone TRASH THEIR COUNTRY OVERSEAS!
Thats why Obama is going down. He TRASHED American in front of the Germans. Then he abused our military. Hes a liberal loony, lemmings.
All the crazy conservative posters are welcome to make their own 538 blog and average together nothing but pro-McCain polls if they want.
Just go away already.
Come on liberals. Try to explain why we should elect Obama when he hangs out with Wright (racist), Ayers (terrorist), and insults his country overseas? You think that will play in Ohio?
Instead of screaming TROLL why don't you consider the facts?
I wish there's a way to block people that don't understand statistics. What Nate pointed out here is the statistical equivalent of a 400-point basketball game. Nothing partisan about it.
Well James I'd encourage you to analyze closely what voting out of fear has accomplished for us.
James,
Your last paragraph seems to suggest that you think that single women don't work as hard as married women.
Not to mention that it's pretty unclear how you figure out which voters in each class are hardworking.
It's not like it's an exit poll question, after all, and it would be subject to a sizable self-reporting bias if it were.
Other than that, you present a version of what seems like a viable case for Republicans generally. It just doesn't seem to be working this time, that's all.
I've said this before -- I think that the fact that McCain is overperforming his party, and Obama underperforming his, is probably not great news for McCain. He's still behind by 3-6 points, after all, so to win he'll have to figure out how to overperform his party even further than he already has. Maybe he can do it, but we've now used up most of July without his having figured out the trick of it.
If he's going to win, he should start doing so pretty soon.
Obama will win. It won't be close.
Gallup will atone before it happens.
James will embrace his inner troll.
The poll has issues, that is the point! It does not mattter hwo did it. Nate also thought the Newsweek poll that had Obama up 15 was problemtaic.
As for the trolls, they are so pathetic it is funny. Facts? Anyone got some facts?
"
As for the trolls, they are so pathetic it is funny. Facts? Anyone got some facts?"
Heres your facts.
1)Obama is a racist
2)Obama has terrorist buddies
3)Obama snubbed the troops
4)Obama is a crook (Rezko)
AND Obama trashed our country in front of foreigners!
MCCAIN supporters can go fu** off
he ain't gonna win it
this Obama boy will win it
can Mccain even give a speech ?
health care ?
education ?
social security ?
what will he do ?
does he have a plan ?
what is he offering ?
N O T H I N G
he is G.W BUSH 2
i'm a old white(65) man who should be voting for McCain but fu** it
Obama is my choice & my wifes
What has this site come to? There used to be intelligent dialogue about the polls. The name-callers, trash talkers need to go to politico or some other place. I think we should all follow in the footsteps of Nate, who runs this site. Even though he is an admitted Obama supporter, he doesn't talk trash of Republicans, points out the positives for McCain and what McCain might need to do to win the presidency. Recently, I feel like I get dumber after reading some of the crap that is written here.
1) McCain is a crook (AZ)
2) His wife is a drug addicted criminal
3) He is a flip flopper - 61 times on important issues like drilling and abortion
4) He is old and senile
Heres your facts.
1)Obama is a racist
2)Obama has terrorist buddies
3)Obama snubbed the troops
4)Obama is a crook (Rezko)
July 28, 2008 8:20 PM
______________________
lies lies lies
fu** off
All this means to me is that Obama is Losing the enthusiasm he resurrected from his supporters during the primary. To what this can be attributed to may be anyones' guess BUT with the convention still NOT here yet he may manage to stir up those feelings of Administrative Change that is so needed in the Government if they manage to orchestrate he convention proceedings to perfection. What the Democratic party will need come November is an extra Hight turnout of those young voters who were energized during the primaries and the Obama campaign needs to find a way of stirring that up from the conventions to the elections ...
Try to dispute any of the facts about Obama. I dare you liberals.
if Obama is a crook why is he not in jail ?
fu** u trailer trash mother fu**ers
Anon 8:22 - why does it mean that? The polls using the same metodology everyday are showing a bounce for Obama.
FACT
> Mccain left his first wife
family values ?
OK. lets take number one - Obama is not a racist, and is in fact much more conciliatory to other races than his prior African-American leaders (Jackson, Sharpton).
Fact one is a lie.
This election is not about McCain. Its a referrendum on Obama. Its not about Bush. If you want to win, you're going to have to face those charges.
Fred-
Why did he hang out with a black supremacist preacher (Rev. Wright) for 20 years then? Why did he attend and help organize the Million Man March led by black supremacist Farakkahn?
Why did he call his grandma a racial slur ("Typical white person")?
Anon-
In context he was making a point, that some whites cross the street to avoid blacks. I am old, and that was true of me before I lived with blacks on the south side of Chicago. He was telling the truth, and using his family as an example. Why is that bad? I thought you were all for the "Straight Talk Express"
Ok anonymous troll you got us he's a racist, lying, crook - thanks for pointing that out. Now that you've proven your point we'll all be sure not to vote for him. Now run along and spread your brilliant insights at another site.
What if I called Obama a "typical black person"? The liberal loons would be howling I'm a racist.
DOUBLE STANDARD!
You give the real reverse racists a pass!
"Why did he hang out with a black supremacist preacher (Rev. Wright) for 20 years then? Why did he attend and help organize the Million Man March led by black supremacist Farakkahn?"
If your father was not aloowed to exercise his right to vote, if your sister was spat on and called the n-word you would to. It does not make you racist, it makes you fair and someone who wants to do the right thing.
Farakkahn and Wright aren't racists then? Yeah, right. The liberal media just won't stand up to racists who aren't white.
"What if I called Obama a "typical black person"? The liberal loons would be howling I'm a racist."
NO! If you were making an honest speech about race it would be fine. If you were being a lying loon on a website, well then yes. Context matters, at least to those of us WITH brains.
If Rev. Wright is such a great guy why did he decide to throw him under the bus (along with his grandma?)
Mccain Trolls
did you hear that Mccain has a BLACK child
You could get whiplash following these polls every day. They're all over the place. The Gallup tracker has Obama up 8 with an oversees bounce while the Gallup/USAToday has McCain up by 4. Am I the only one who believes theres too much talk over polls which may bounce around quite a bit over the next 3 months. I doubt Obama is up by 8 and I doubt McCain is ub by 4. Split the difference, Obama by 2, thats peobabley a little closer.
There hasn't been a single poll since early April with McCain having this big a lead so unless theres further evidence to back up this result I would classify it an outlier for the time being.
Dick Morris who I consider a Hack said tonight that Obama's weakness in the polls is due to women over 40 where he's down by 4 points. This is the Hillary vote that has not come home to Obama. He should be up 5-10 points among this group. The lengthy divisive primary has indeed taken its toll on the Democratic party. If Obama can bring much of this group back into the fold he will win the general handily. If he cannot, it will be close and he may lose. His VP selection will indeed be his first executive decision, He had better make a good one, the fate of the election may rest in the balance.
I heard Obama has a black child. Two of them!
"Farakkahn and Wright aren't racists then? Yeah, right. The liberal media just won't stand up to racists who aren't white."
Have you lived in Chicago? I have. Farrakhan is known as a racist nutball, by blacks! Jackson is seen as a sellout to all those not being paid by him.
I see the brainless hordes of Obama haters are out in full force, repeating the idiocy they heard from Limbaugh and Hannity.
Barack Obama is the best major-party presidential candidate America has ever had and he will win this election easily.
Well Obama attended one of Farakkahn's marches and recieved his endorsement.
I guess he DOES hang out with racists then, along with terrorists (Ayers).
some time ago Obama was a muslim then a secret japanese buddist now Obama is a secret jew
Come on stick to one trolls..
just ignore the trailer trash freaks
Obama is going to win this...i was a Hillary troll but i gave it up
you can't go against the Obama wave
now i'm an Oba mama
=)
The million man march was alot more than a nutball farrakhan rally.
I meant that he will win the election handily, not easily.
musicman -- what's happened is that, unfortunately, every open site will inevitably descend into troll trash without some level of moderation. "Don't feed the trolls" only goes so far -- as soon as you get two or more playing off of each other, having a real discussion becomes very difficult.
I really hope Nate and Sean have some plans for adding moderation or community rating, because if it's this bad now, after the conventions you'll have to skip past pages and pages of trolling to find one substantive comment, and the real contributors will give up.
Once again, the comment section begs for moderation.
Man, why do so many conservatives lash out at liberals the way they do on this site? Sure, liberals bash conservatives as well, but they don't seem to do so in such a vicious fashion.
I would love to see discussion on this site from both sides, but first someone needs to filter out the ALL CAPS and the name calling, etc.
As for this poll, at first glance it is the very definition of an outlier. We will need to see more details before we know if it is just that, or if there is something else at work in the methodology.
I heard Obama has a black child. Two of them!
anon - July 28, 2008 8:34 PM
__________________________________-
Obama is mixed race & his wife is black
so the children are black
can't you freaks get that even ?
So you think the Million Man March was a good thing?
Yeah, you MUST be from Chicago. Because Ohio and Michigan and Iowa that won't go over well.
james,
"From what I've read, the difference between the two Gallup polls is that they are not the same people, but rather two completely different polls. I don't think Nate is taking that into consideration with his analysis."
Nate's analysis is based on a single Gallup poll, for which they released results for both Registered (900) and Likely (791) voters, from which one can infer how "unlikely" voters (109) answered - they favored Obama by around 8-1.
I don't really understand Gallup's answer to this above that made reference to 60% turnout. Their "likely voter" screen seems to have only screened out about 12% of all voters, which is another reason to question its usefulness, since this election will not see 88% voter turnout.
Samantha I think that was a joke.
WE DO NOT APPROVE COMMENTS MADE BY OUR "SUPPORTERS"
100% DISGUSTING COMMENTS
LOT OF THESE MCCAIN SUPPORTERS ARE REALLY NOT SUPPORTING US
WE DO NOT TOLERATE PERSONAL ATTACKS WITH FAKE FACTS
MCCAIN 2008
McCain Web Team
FU**ING REDNECKS
GO BACK TO YOUR CAVE
WHO GAVE YOU REDNECKS INTERNET
KEEP FU**ING YOUR SISTER
TRILLER TRASH FREAKS
Fuck you redshift, I am not a troll. There is a difference between truth and trolling, but thanks...
As for the point, how can the gallup daily tracking show something so different...
Wow, the comments are horrendeous today. I just scroll past them and don't bother to read the trolls, personally.
100 days to history. I'm counting them down.
Dick Morris who I consider a conservative hack actually made a good point this evening. He made a point that Barack Obama was losing by 4 points among women over 40 though he should be winning this group by 5-10 points. Hmmmmm, women over 40, what possible reason could they be lagging behind?
Its clear now that the reason obama isn't further ahead in the polls than the 4 point lead he appears to have is this group and their hesitancy to back Mr. Obama. I'm sure the Obama campaign is aware of this and it makes his VP pick very important, it truly is his first executive decision. If he can pick a candidate whether it be Hillary or not who can bring this block of voters that are already democrats, then Obama will win the general with ease. If however he cannot bring them, then the election will remain close to the end.
When I first came to this site, everyone commented about the polls and data--left and right-wingers alike. But as happened to the discourse in this country, the right-wing trolls have jumped in with their hateful comments. None of them seem capable of discussing statistical methodology in a dispassionate manner. It really is sad. If you don't like this site and how it is conducted, please leave and go to a site where you can rant and rave to your heart's content. If we wanted to listen to people with IQs of 70 spout off about things they don't know about, we would listen to Limbaugh or O'Reilly. If you don't have the ability to discuss Nate's statistical analysis without spewing out unrelated commentary, then you really should just leave.
Why do you trolls hate America and its ideal of rational political discourse that was advanced by our founding fathers?
Cugel -
It's not difficult to believe that 16% of Obama backers fail an LV screen vs. 2% of McCain backers. Republican ID is at a low ebb and the hold-outs are undoubtedly more committed. Meanwhile, the new voters and leaners the Obama attracts are less reliable (on paper at least).
The real question is whether this model predicts November. It is not unreasonable to imagine that young voters, new voters, black voters, and other groups targeted by Obama fail to surge over their 2004 numbers. 2004's 60% turnout exceeded anything since before 18-20 years old could vote in 1972 and probably hasn't been bested since the 19th century if you factor them out. 2004 saw huge registration drives, GOTV efforts, and large left-wing independent expenditures to unseat the Republican, and an extremely close race that riveted the nation as a result. It's short-sighted to view 2008 as some kind of special year in terms of registration, GOTV, the competitiveness of the race, or voter interest. It's a mistake commentators make every 4 years: this year will be different.
Gallup may be proven wrong in November, but until then their LV model is a reasonable attempt to apply historical experience to the current contest. Calling it into question versus Rasmussen's LV model or a plain old RV model is purely subjective. The main criticism of the model appears to be that it does not support the optimistic GOTV projections of many Obama supporters.
I recall that when Gallup's tracking poll had the race tied it took a lot of criticism here. Now that it has Obama +8 it's the gold standard by which this other Gallup poll is judged inadequate.
valleyforgepa,
"Calling it into question versus Rasmussen's LV model or a plain old RV model is purely subjective."
Gallup editor Frank Newsome is quoted in the USA Today as saying, "Registered voters are much more important at the moment."
Newsome as much as admitted the poll fails.
valleyforgepa(hi neighbor, downingtown here) I doubt this poll will hold up for a week.
Tom: I think the 60% turnout is out of all adults (or eligible voters, a slightly smaller subset). So they probably reached 1325 adults (if I've done my math right), of whom 900 were RVs. And they kept the 1325*0.6 = 791 who scored highest on their "likelihood" measure, as the LVs. I'm not sure what all goes into that likelihood measure...
tomthress, moondancer -
Quoting an opinion, even Frank Newsome's, reinforces that any analysis of the LV model is subjective until actual voting occurs.
Interestingly, the same USAToday/Gallup LV poll in June had Obama +6 vs. -4 in July. So if nothing else these two polls show that more Obama supporters fail the LV screen than last month, which may indicate a significant softening in his support or a decline in enthusiasm and commitment to voting.
Very good analysis like usual. I for one am happy you have gone to a sign in account. Unfortunately too many people abuse blogs for their own personal agendas.
"So if nothing else these two polls show that more Obama supporters fail the LV screen than last month, which may indicate a significant softening in his support or a decline in enthusiasm and commitment to voting."
Without knowing the exact questions used to screen, this is all just speculation, but one of the screens cited in the USA Today article was "how much thought they had given to the election", which actually could lead to the exact opposite result.
If somebody isn't a political junkie (i.e., isn't hanging out here) and has already made up their mind about who to vote for, it could be that such people aren't currently giving any thought at all to the election, because what's to think about? In other words, it could be that the candidate with LESS enthusiastic support could have supporters who are actually thinking more about the election, because they're still not sure who they're going to vote for.
This could be especially true last week. It could be that soft McCain supporters were particularly interested in seeing how Obama's world tour went.
But I freely admit that I'm just bullshitting off the top of my head here.
Obama's got a backstory almost everyone, including myself, would love to vote for, but he's just wrong on policy. He supports rent control, for example, which even Krugman calls "economic stupidity". Well over 90% of economists think rent controls are bad policy. I could also mention the broad support of economists for free trade, something McCain has been far more stalwart on.
xxx
The fact is that Obama is going to grind McCain up and sprinkle him over some breakfast cereal.
This is going to be a clear win, despite all the racist assholes in this country who would be voting their interests if it were not for Obama being black.
I guess that tribal loyalty thing comes first for some crackers.
Now that registration is required, here's hoping this is the last set of comments one has to wade through troll posts. Since I haven't, apologies if the following has been already been noted.
I think Gallup is in serious danger of losing credibility unless Frank Newport takes the presentation of their results more seriously.
The Gallup daily tracking poll does not use a likely voter screen, presumably in order to save time and because as Newport points out in his comments about the USA Today/Gallup poll, LV estimates 100 days out from an election are error-prone, at best. And no more so than this year.
So why on earth do they both use and report such results in their USA Today poll, especially when the results are so screwy?
Newport's blanket explanation of "statistical noise" simply doesn't cut it. He may well be right, of course, but it's a label, not an explanation.
There are clear differences between the daily tracking polls (both Gallup and Rasmussen) and the national media polls run on a monthly basis. And as Abramowitz has demonstrated, there is no obvious reason for the differences. (Call backs is one possible explanation that can't yet be disconfirmed.)
Considering the impact of the daily tracking polls on "averages," Gallup (and Rasmussen who does use a Likely Voter screen) owe everyone a better explanation of their methodologies than they are supplying.
Brian Dell:
Just wanted to point out some significant quibbles about your post.
1. The vote was 11 years ago. It says little about how he would vote today should he be put into a situation where it was relevant.
2. He did not vote to support rent control, only to leave it as a local option.
3. Given his district in the State Senate, he was probably voting their wishes.
That being said, rent control reminds me of Menkens's comment that for every complex issue there is a simple, attractice answer - that is wrong.
Just an outlier it seems. Obama is ahead in every other poll.
Hi, I'm new to this board and have a statistical question. Is it true that to be considered a "likely voter" you have to have voted in previous elections, 2004, 2006 etc. If so, many people that are enthusiastic Obama folk will not be considered "likely voters" because they may be newly registered. One of the most porominent organizing campaigns of the Obama people os to register new voters who may be considered by the polsters to new to be "Likely voters". Is this possible or am I wrong.
If Obama has a higher supporter enthusiasm number how could he also have a higher percentage of likely voters who don't show up for him than McCain?
I think it is too early to truly assess the impact of Obama’s trip on the polls. Most of the recent spate of polls were taken during the trip and reflect the warm glow engendered by the pictures and the spectacular crowd Obama attracted in Germany.
As I have argued in a number of other blogs, Obama I think missed his trajectory on the trip, playing to the left wing establishment that supports the sort of one-world rhetoric that was the underpinning of his largely underwhelming speech in Berlin. I truly believe that the working class swing voters that Obama has been trying to woo since the Ohio primary were actually turned off by that montage or perhaps initially taken aback and will soon begin to feel that something about the whole thing just sticks in their craw.
Still, Obama scored points (and not just the treys he shot with the troops), though he lost some too: taking hits on the Surge and his failure to visit with the injured soldiers in Germany.
There are important policy debates to be had over the future of Iraq and Afghanistan and who is better suited to further US interests. Also, the energy issue continues to loom as the wedge issue of the campaign, along with issues regarding the economy along with taxes and spending.
Given how fresh the trip is, it is ludicrous to think that any poll is properly measuring the longer term reaction, particularly where the horizon stretches for nearly 100 days.
This election will either be a McCain blow out as voters come to reject the inexperienced and flip flopping African American candidate over the trusted yet maverick, long experienced White Senator with the personally courageous history; or it will be a narrow win for Obama, as voters decide to take the chance on the fresh face and the different approach because they have had enough of the status quo and they identify it with failed Republican polices and lump McCain in with it and them. Obama, I am sorry to tell you, has too high a set of negatives to ever really achieve the kind of landslide that the Democrat partisans are swooning for.
How’s that for banal analyses?
A month ago I saw this race as a narrow win for Obama, but now I am not so sure.
Still, McCain is running out of inflection points: the VP picks, the conventions, the debates. It is shame Obama never agreed to those 10 town hall meetings. If you had any doubt about his shrewdness, put it aside when you think of that!
Maybe Gallup is right, Obama's lead appears to be in the African American and under 30 crowd. Maybe these crowds are 8 times more likely not to vote than the McCain demographics of older established white working and upper class.
What time does Gallup release its daily tracker? Today would be artificially high because of the weekends huge bounce up, but then after Wednesday we should have 3 days to balance out that one really high day for the Gallup tracker. Am I right it takes 3 days to completely correct one bad way off polling day on the tracker? In other words day one the bounce happens, the bounce disappears three days later right?
This poll is likely an outlier, but is part of the 5 day trend that say Obama peak on Thursday while enter a free fall that has continued through yesterday.
If you look at Rasmussen, the most reliable of the tracking polls, he has eroded from +6 to +5, +3, to +1.
If you back out the likely daily totals, the trend is even more ominous, where Obama was probably +8 on Thursday eroding to -1 yesterday. This is an approximation, but the trend has got to be correct.
Gallup has shown some slight erosion as well, though less dramatic. Let's see what today looks like. My prediction is that Obama will slide another 2 points.
Final point...I tend to view the Sunday polls as the most accurate. This is the time when most people are home and the participation rates tend to be much higher. Any other time of the week introduces a lot of bias because some people work.
The USA Today Poll was largely taken on Sunday, and the Rasmussen Sunday numbers showed a steep dropoff for Obama as did Gallup.
...this may be overstated, but the trend is real.
higglytown -
You are exactly right. Gallup is a 3 day rolling average, just like Rasmussen. That is why I expect Obama's Gallup numbers to erode today and tomorrow.
His Friday Gallup number was HUGE (probably +13 or so). Sunday was a little bit back to Earth. Yesterday will likely look about the same.
Once those massive Friday numbers fall out, Gallup will settle at around +3-4 for Obama.
Why were those Friday numbers so MASSIVE? Well, every loyal Democrat was at home to watch the speech, right? That means you are home to answer your phone. Do you think those guys are not going to participate?
I think Rasmussen is going to be tied tomorrow...just a hunch. All signs point to McCain winning or tied in the last 2 days of polling on Rasmussen.
Likely voter models are useless. It's much better to just include options "other candidate", "won't vote" and "undecided" to the option "Obama" and "McCain".
test
I don't quite understand why people bother to come to this website if they are going to simply ignore the mathematical analysis and accuse the analysts of "bias".
Bad polling practices should be exposed, not judged solely upon whether the result favors a particular candidate.
For all of you whiners claiming that this site is biased toward Obama: pop on over to www.electionprojection.com. That site is run by an unabashedly conservative Republican...and he consistently has Obama thrashing McCain soundly, even as he sounds more disappointed with every post he makes.
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