My latest ZohoSheet project. This will give you a simple popular vote projection for November based on (i) a candidate's support from each party and (ii) turnout rates.
A couple of notes: the party ID values you see here are based on a combination of three recent surveys: Gallup, Rasmussen , and Pew. All three show the Democrats with between a 9 and 10 point partisan edge on the Republicans, although the surveys differ somewhat in how many independents they identify.
I recommend that you not play with the party ID numbers, since those numbers move glacially and are at least somewhat exogenous to the political contest in any given year. Instead, you can manipulate the turnout rates. I have Democrats and Republicans each turning out at 62 percent, with independent turnout being slightly lower. I believe this is roughly what the turnout rates looked like in 2004, although I can't find any hard evidence on that.
The other numbers you see in the worksheet, while not coming from anywhere in particular, are not entirely arbitrary either. Fundamentally, it is very challenging for McCain to be working from this deficit in partisan ID.
6.12.2008
World's Simplest Election Projection
@ 5:30 PM
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38 comments
If Republicans are able to equal Democratic Turn Out as a percentage of their numbers, 62%-62% as you show here, then I would consider that a failure. The Enthusiasm Gap is HUGE and REAL, as incidated by many polls, including the WSJ number that showed 55% believe Obama will be Elected vs Mid 30's for McCain...
Besides, This sorta thing isn't happening in the GOP and really shows that 62% is lowballin' it as of Today.
If Republicans are able to equal Democratic Turn Out as a percentage of their numbers, 62%-62% as you show here, then I would consider that a failure.
Makes sense - the disproportionate increase in AA turnout that's occurred in every primary should be enough to swing the turnout balance to the dems, no?
Rasmussen has McBush with only a 2-point lead in North Carolina. Big improvement from May, plus Rasmussen doesn't account for changes in turnout. We know that black voters are going to show a massive increase in turnout this year, so I have to think that if you adjust for this factor Obama is now leading there.
What's interesting is the 6% "other parties." I'm wondering if this is all Barr, or whether there might be some disaffected Hillary voters in the mountains who told Rasmussen that they'd vote for Nader.
One problem with turnout rates is the voter files are getting cleaner and therefor turnout rates are going up. It is always been a suspicion of mine that the historic low rate of youth participation has to do with the inability of college town registrations do cull out those who have moved on since the last election. Also the fact that Census assigns college students to their college towns while newer younger students still tend to be registered at their parents address leads to lower turnout rates for this cohort. Polling can't reach them due to the fact they work off cell phones only. This could be a hole in turnout predictions
The only way I see the Rs matching the Ds turnout is if Obama picks HRC as his running mate. I base this on completely anecdotal evidence acquired by talking to my wingnut family back in Michigan. They are all pretty blase this go-around and pretty much resigned to the fact that McCain is toast. Some say they will cast a protest vote for Barr or write in Huckabee (they are of the Dominionist bent), but mostly they just plan on staying home this time. Mention HRC on the ticket, though, and they become Broken Glass voters, willing to crawl over broken glass to vote against HRC. Heh, from the looks of it though, we'd win anyways! Huzzah!
Somewhat off topic, but if you read this Nate, can you tell us what the mode is on your latest simulation? It would be interesting to know what the most common combination of Obama states is. It looks like the mode in terms of the EV distribution is just north of 240, but I'm wondering about state combos.
It seems unlikely that McCain could improve on these numbers significantly. You project his Republican vote near 90%, high already...I moved it to 95% (essentially taking Barr out of the race and giving Obama only 4% of R votes), and Obama only needed to gain 1% amongst Dems to get back into the lead.
If you consider that Obama could grow the Democratic base some with his huge voter registration and GOTV drives (which I'm reading are fronts McCain is quite lethargic on) and it starts to look really, really grim for McCain.
I agree with all the comments above on turnout. Is there the data (and would you take it on) to use primary participation to project general election participation?
Thanks in advance.
your sheet won't let barr or nader win. :-)
Interesting - if you assume 55% independent turnout split evenly for McCain/Obama, 62% Repub turnout and give ALL of it to McCain save 4% for Barr, and keeping the default Democratic split (83/14/0/3), Obama can reach a solid +2% with 70% Dem turnout. In other words - forget winning over Repubs and Independents and turn out the base and Obama can't lose.
The ridiculous voter ID laws that the Republicans are pushing now will definitely lead to reduced Democratic turnout. Which is, of course, the entire goal of these laws - though the Republicans will never admit it.
Based on the above spreadsheet, the media can declare Obama the presumptive winner and move on. Who is going to tell McCain to concede?
Two certainties:
1. Third party overall will be lower.
2. Turnout overall will be higher.
I honestly think that turnout will be upwards of 70%, well at least for Democrats.
The biggest turnout increase for Democrats will be black voters, and I think they'll be decisive in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin. They also could swing North Carolina, Missouri, Virginia and maybe even Mississippi.
The next most important group will be Hispanics, who are leaving very heavily in favor of Obama. Turnout will be the key there, and if they really boost it, then along with blacks you could imagine Texas being swung, also that would need help from a collapse in the McCain campaign and Republican disarray, third-party defections, and general malaise.
I think the youth vote is interesting. Get-out-the-vote campaigns in 2000 and 2004 raised college turnout to nearly 75% in 2004, so it's hard to imagine a significant boost from the surge of enthusiasm on campuses, although maybe it would have an impact in North Carolina and Virginia.
The harder nut to crack is non-collegiate youth, which stuck in the low-30s in '00 and '04. Some of that will be taken care of by the increase in black turnout, but white non-collegiate turnout is probably the hardest of all to increase because this is a group that, in general, doesn't pay attention to news in any form.
I'd be optimistic about females and Obama, especially if Obama picks a woman other than Hillary Clinton. If he picks Clinton, he'll energize the Republicans and might alienate a significant number of independents, both men AND women, who don't particularly trust her.
All in all, I think Democrats have good reason for optimism, as long as there isn't some bombshell on Obama that we're not aware of. Also, I think if McCain picks Sarah Palin, the popular Republican governor of Alaska, that he could make some inroads, especially if Obama picks a male running mate.
On the plus side for Obama, the surprising early meltdown of McCain could turn this into a real rout. You never know what will happen, but the more I see McCain on the tube, the more shockingly bad he comes across. He's lurching, both rhetorically and physically. It's starting to look almost sad.
Also on the plus side, and related to McCain's problems as a candidate, is the fraying of Republican unity. The far right-wing, which is about one-third of the Republican Party, is unhappy with McCain, as shown by Ron Paul's continued strong showing in the spring primaries.
That's going to be accentuated in September, when Paul holds a parallel convention in Minneapolis that will be just as well attended as the main Republican convention and a whole lot more enthusiastic. You could easily imagine Bob Barr drawing close to 10% of the vote as a result.
Obama's biggest danger might be overoptimism among his campaign and Democrats in general!
I'd play with the pary i.d. numbers slightly. While Dems have the advantage, they may be off by a % or 2 and too strongly favoring the Dems. Alot of people identifying Dem now are new to the party and easily 1-3% could be pulled back to independent or GOP before November.
He's lurching, both rhetorically and physically. It's starting to look almost sad.
I'm getting all choked up! But seriously, in the unlikely event that this really turns into a rout, my #1 reason for supporting Obama will come into play. He's the only democrat since LBJ who I think is capable of the organizational competence and sophistication to milk the maximum legislative benefit out of his "mandate".
Have you created this site to keep us political junkies diverted from what is going on in this election. Do you think that if you make this site addicting enough that we'll miss the press-conference where Obama admits to being a radical Muslim/fringe Christian with a crazy preacher, or a terrorist spreading his terror one fist jab at a time? Clever ploy, but we won't be distracted from the big issues this time. Issues like flag pins, lobbyist advisors, and whether or not McCain should use a green backdrop.
McCain will never see this. He can't use a computer.
Charles Pluckham: "The biggest turnout increase for Democrats will be black voters, and I think they'll be decisive in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin."
I can't speak to MI, WI, or OH, though some of the arguments I'm about to make probably apply in those states too. That said, the black vote in Pennsylvania is important, but it won't be 'decisive'.
PA has several large to middle sized population regions: Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, State College, Harrisburg, and Erie. Only Philadelphia is dominated by the black vote - which balances Appalachian votes in the rural areas.
The black vote is 10.8% of PA's population (2006 census estimates), less than the national average. Even assuming - all other numbers being equal - that Obama increases the black vote by 10% in 2008, and that 95% vote for him, you're looking at, maybe, a 0.5 - 1.0 % increase in his vote totals. Not enough to 'swing' the election, or be 'decisive' unless the PA vote is already in the 'too close to call' range.
It's a state where most conservatives and moderates have a libertarian streak that leaves them repulsed by things like the Patriot Act, and it's largely pro-labor. Frankly, a lot of the pro-Clinton vote in those areas came from the belief that she was better on health care and labor issues. Latent racism and/or resentment about affirmative action exist there, but are only secondary factors at most.
For example, one person I talked to stated that he was concerned that lower middle class people wouldn't be covered under Obama's health plan because it lacked mandates - and this was a definitely 'leans conservative' guy. That was a pretty common concern, actually. There are more people paying attention to the issues and policy differences than the pundits think.
Meanwhile, a lot of Pennsylvanians think McCain is more 'moderate' than, or equally moderate as, Obama.
And that's where PA will be decided - in convincing that part of the electorate that Obama is better than McCain on the issues they care about. It sounds naive and idealistic, I know. But that's really where PA will be decided, and I suspect for the other Rust Belt states you mentioned too.
That means Obama needs: to shoot down right-wing smears and attacks that distract from the important issues with a quick response team; to educate voters on McCain's real, very conservative, Senate voting record; to present himself as a competent leader who will fight for them with better policies than McCain; and to project that 'Presidential aura' that assures them he can handle a national security crisis.
Given the national mood, and the GOP's record over the past 7 years, most of that should be pretty easy. Quick responses to GOP smears and attacks may be the most important factor in keeping the voters in PA, and the other states mentioned, from being distracted - and to keep them focused on the things they dislike about GOP governance.
Finally, the black population isn't large in any of those states. The US national average is 12.8%. In WI, it's 6.0%; PA, 10.3%; OH, 12%, and MI, 14.3% (2006 US census estimates). An increase in black participation should be important in OH, where it was suppressed by an undersupply of voting machines in minority areas during the 2004 election, and it might be important in both Ohio and Michigan, where the polls are still very close.
It's unlikely to be decisive in WI or PA, though it is important for downticket races.
So don't rely too much on identity analysis to predict this election's outcome. Obama brings so much more to the table, and it's his skills and policies that are likely to be the 'decisive' factor. Getting out the black vote is important; Obama's personal and policy appeal across a broad range of the electorate is what will be decisive.
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Junkie and Anon who wrote last:
I'm going to have to ask you two to stop posting here. If this becomes a trend -- snarkalicious comments on an already brilliant site -- well, I'm going to be fired within the next two weeks for getting crap done.
jgabriel, I agree. When I wrote that the black vote would be "decisive," I was assuming an otherwise close election. If it's not very close, then the black vote won't be decisive.
I'd point out that the 2004 election was razor close in Wisconsin, so a one-third increase in black turnout there could conceivably make a difference if the election were that close this time.
I especially agree with this: "Obama's personal and policy appeal across a broad range of the electorate is what will be decisive."
What about the amazing number of newly registered Dems? Does this turnout model take into account the number of Dems has increased substantially?
What happened to the "whitey tape" post?
Someone help feed the Junkie. I am trying to explain to someone why there can be such variance among the polls within a state. I understand some of the obvious reasons; sample size, date, phone/mailing, etc. Am I missing some other reasons?
Some other sources of variance.
(1) The type of screen used to select "likely voters."
(2) Whether the question on vote intention is "contaminated" prior questions in the same survey.
(3) The kind of "weighting" of the survey results, for example, do they weight or adjust the data for party ID.
Low Republican party ID means a relatively high proportion are most likely "hard-core" partisans whereas self-described Democrats are disproportionately "leaners". Even if Republicans are demoralized, hard-core partisans will have much higher turnout than leaners. This will tend to shrink the party ID gap among actual voters.
For example, assume hard-core Dems turnout at 85%, hard-core Republicans at only 80%, and leaners on both sides turn out at 58%. So Dems have higher overall turnout, right? No, not if 10% are hard-core Reps, 10% hard-core Dems, 19% lean Republican, 28% lean Democrat, and 33% are indies. In this case, overall Republican turnout would be 66% to Dems' 65%.
Also consider that in 2004 exit polls party id was 37-37-26 (R-D-I) but pre-election polls gave Dems a 5-point party ID advantage. Other factors aside, Republicans historically have higher turnout due to their demographics. Enthusiasm will be a factor, but it cuts both ways. McCain may see low conservative enthusiasm, while Obama may see low enthusiasm from Clinton supporters. It's too early to tell whether Obama will have a clear overall advantage in enthusiasm, and how much that will affect turnout (or whether it's already baked into the party id figures).
To try to adjust for this, I raised the overall Republican turnout to 65% and lowered Dems to 60% and it becomes a virtual tie.
It seems like Obama should win by about 20%. But I like to see things in a special way.
IMO, opinion while Obama is getting a bit of a bounce he's also drifting as a story line. He's clearly doing some homework and administrative stuff now but he's not making stories except mostly defensive ones such as on his rumor swat team and his VP vetting team. Meantime, McCain is still getting too much of a free ride.
Actually, Party ID as of Nov 2004 was only about 1.5% off between the two parties: http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/party_affiliation/party_affiliation/summary_of_party_affiliation
Now it's about 7 times that.
A more realistic projection accounting for the environmental differences between now and 2004:
Democratic Turnout:65% (there's a pumped up base out there, and African American turnout will be far higher than 2004). A 3% turnout spike is more in line with the reality for Obama.
Democratic voting: 85-10-4 Obama/McCain/Nader...Obama already has 75% of the Democratic vote and the wounds from a contested primary are still raw. He'll continue to close that number down. McCain will get around 10% among Democrats, and Nader will get his usual 4% in the Democratic Party--if I'm being generous with the perennial candidate, you can give his numbers to McCain it doesn't make a difference.
Turnout for Republicans: 58%--the base is disillusioned with McCain and many will stay home. A four percent Republican turnout drop isn't unrealistic given the winds. The Republican vote 83/12/5 McCain/Obama/Barr. Obama is already picking up some pretty prominent conservative support. He's also doing much better than any recent Democrat among the Evangelicals (some of whom are disillusioned with the war). Increasing Obama's Republican share to 12% is pretty realistic and conservative. McCain has real problems with some gun rights advocates. Bob Barr is a hero to the pro-gun right. He will pick up significant support among the gun community; Barr will also probably be the destination of choice for Ron Paul's flock (which is about 10% of the party), so giving Barr 5% Republican support is way on the conservative side.
Obama will probably win independents. Independents favor a generic Democrat strongly. The long primary season turned Independents off of the Democratic Party, but the proper running mate, and time in the rear view will probably drive the Independents to Obama. I think 51/46/2/1 Obama/McCain/Barr/Nader is a reasonable and conservative estimate.
I think 57% independent turnout is probably about accurate--Independents had high levels of participation in the Democratic Primary and it should go up from 2004.
That leaves us with 60.6% turnout--the same as 2004, but a distribution of 54 Obama/41 McCain/2 Barr/2 Nader. Obama by 13. I don't think this election will be close...
Speaking of turnout and party I.D., given the growing signs of an alliance between Ron Paul and Bob Barr, I think the pollsters and analysts ought to start thinking about the potential impact of a third-party candidacy.
The mainstream media aren't going to give this much coverage, I think partly because neither Barr nor Paul are pro-Israel and the media tends to ignore those voices. But it's not going to matter, because the Barr/Paul crowd is substantial. Paul got 10%-25% of the votes in the Republican primaries, even after McCain had locked it up.
Paul is going to have his own convention in Minneapolis during the Republican convention. It's going to draw 11,000 people, and while the media will surely marginalize the event I don't think that will keep maybe 5-10% of the total vote from going to Barr, depending on how badly McCain navigates the fissures in the Republican Party.
If Barr can win 10% of the Republican vote I don't see how McCain has a chance and considering the Ron Paul movement and how much many GOP people don't like McCain, that seems entirely possible.
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