Two more reasons why Barack Obama should visit Alaska -- and soon:
Firstly, John McCain would face a tough choice between potentially watching the state flip to Obama and having to pay a visit himself. Apart from the jet lag, what is the downside of visiting Alaska? The McCain team seems to have a fear of acknowledging weakness on the electoral map; hence, their reticence to admit that Virginia (among others) is a swing state. It's one thing for McCain to visit Kentucky or Louisiana -- states that are not especially competitive this year, but that went Democratic as late as 1996. But Alaska has always been as red as red gets. So McCain either looks like he's in panic mode because he has to visit Alaska, or with a little luck for Obama, a poll will come out later this summer showing Obama a couple of points ahead, which might also trigger some bad press for McCain.
Secondly, Obama could force McCain to clarify his position on drilling the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR). McCain has now come out in favor of offshore drilling, but gave a non-answer answer to a Missourian's question about ANWR drilling today, which McCain has consistently and somewhat vocally opposed doing in the past. Most Alaskans want to drill the ANWR, so McCain would either have to (i) explain why he wants to drill everywhere else but not the ANWR -- not an easy sell to Alaskans or (ii) come out in favor of ANWR drilling, which creates a much clearer flip-flop from his previous record. Obama, though he also holds a position on ANWR that would be unpopular with the locals (and probably the rest of the country), can at least place a claim to being consistent. Obama is not going to be able to flip the the offshore drilling issue like he did the gas tax -- it is too easy for McCain to frame it as a matter of national security -- but at least he would be staging the issue in such a way as to encourage McCain to flop.
6.19.2008
Why Obama should visit Alaska, Part II
@ 1:14 AM
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Maybe he should visit Ohio where a Rasmussen poll show him trail 43-44.
I'm having enough of the 50-state strategy. Obama has only campaigned in Ohio for like 7 days altogether compared to 4 weeks in PA.
Yeah, God forbid Obama should use a strategy McCain can't compete with.
That's just so unfair.
.
this is a great idea. i hope the obama campaign reads this blog, because visiting alaska would be an excellent move, a great way to take the initiative and play offense. it would get obama press when he goes there and makes a speech about offshore drilling, mccain would have to clarify his position, and it gives obama a chance to dictate the terms of the argument on an issue popular with the base.
nate, this in an outstanding blog. keep up the good work.
I would add there are only 670,000 people in Alaska, making it less populous than even South Dakota. And over 40% of those people are in Anchorage.
A personal visit can have a lot of impact in such a small state. For example, consider the fact that 5,000 voters in the SD primary were the difference between a 10-point win and a tie.
I think it's high time Obama flipped on ANWR. Beats McCain to the punch. Theres enough evidence out there to show that the environmental impact of drilling wouldn't be as serious as it was in the past and it could produce at crap-load of domestic oil (and jobs). It would be the perfect contrast to McCain's proposals to drill of FL and CA, and a way to take the obvious better position on a hot-button issue.
I think going to Alaska would have big propaganda value for Obama. 1) The Democrats already love him there, so they'd be very energized. 2) It's a non-continental state and he's from Hawaii, the other one. I understand there's a strong bond between HI and AK, 3) It's a very American story, going to the last frontier, 4) It's positively Rovian, hitting the GOP in a "strong" point. 5) It will help the down ticket and they will help him 6) Makes McCain spend time and money.
The media will love it!
My sister has lived in AK for six years now, and she has said that if Obama comes up there and gives a speech (and mentions that he believes the Second Amendment reserves an individual right to keep and bear arms, which he does as a constitutional scholar), he can win the state, and do so easily.
The whole drill, drill, drill chant is getting tiring. Even if off-shore and ANWAR were opened up reliable consistent oil would not reach market from those areas until 2018! Sorry but try selling that to people who are upset with $4.50 TODAY. The Rasmussen poll result is misleading as it was taken BEFORE the whole McCain proposal came out. Now that there is serious reporting of the issue, demonstrating that the drill, drill, mantra is nothing more than another pander a la the gas tax holiday (but an even less direct one, as its impact on prices would be YEARS out) I would not be surprised to see in a week a much different result. As to flipping on ANWAR for Obama, why do so. He is already doing well in the state DESPITE holding the position, a flip and I suspect many indies in the state will see him as just another pandering politician (as is now the case with McFlipFlop).
I have a hard time believing that Alaska's three delegates are worth sacrificing any amount of time or jet lag, especially when McCain's offshore drilling enthusiasm should be enough to swing anybody who is moderately considering voting for Obama. Now's not the time to get greedy. Let's just focus on winning.
As a follow-up to my above comment, consider that the US average is about 560,000 people per EV.
In Alaska, it's about 223,000 people per EV. And I suspect the media markets are relatively cheap.
I'm sure the people who came up with Obama's delegate strategy have thought this through and will allocate resources appropriately.
I don't mean to go too off-topic on this, but I miss the EV proportional-size cartogram. Can we get it back on the main page?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doolittle_Raid
An aggressive pitch in Alaska is to the 2008 Election as Doolittle's Raid is to World War II, in the sense that the symbolism and psychological effect of it would make it highly cost-effective despite being only 3 EVs.
A few other things:
1. No "Big 2" party Presidential candidate has visited Alaska since Nixon
2. Alaskans are very proud of their state, and Obama going there would be a sign of respect and valuing their votes which would resonate very well.
3. The symbolism, press coverage, and the fact that it's really not that far from Seattle make it not that "out of the way" in the scope of the long run to the General.
Also, Alaska is mind-blowingly beautiful this time of year- One day based in Anchorage with a stop in some smaller fishing area (Cordova or Seward make the most sense) or Denali/Fairbanks would get him the state in all likelihood.
Spark:
Remember it's not just about 3 EVs: it's also about getting help downticket and Obama, as President, will greatly benefit from having all the Dem Senators he can get.
I think an Alaska visit is a great idea. The state is seeing a big Democratic surge because of corruption. Obama's clean-government message would be well received. He'd also be well-received if, for example, he went to the area where the Bushies want to allow a gold mine to dump pollutants into one of the richest fisheries in the world.
There'd be some great photo ops there in the great outdoors, and if he combined that with visits to Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, and Montana, and maybe a tweak of McCain by making a speech in Tucson, I think he'd get a lot of attention in the West.
If Obama visits, he should do so after the Democratic nominees for the Senate and House seat are officially chosen so he can campaign with them. Right now Begich and Berkowitz are expected to win them, respectively, but they still have yet to do so. I'm not sure when their primaries are though.
I'm surprised you didn't mention the Senate race - all polling shows it as a dead heat, and even if Obama doesn't take the state, he could give the Democrat a boost.
As mentioned though, this should wait until the congressional primaries are over.
It sounds like some people are getting a bit overconfident:
"I have a hard time believing that Alaska's three delegates are worth sacrificing any amount of time or jet lag"
"I'm having enough of the 50-state strategy."
I think a visit to Alaska would be a great idea. Right now the election's looking like a potential landslide, but the only two states Obama has been consistently flipping for months are Iowa and Colorado which would put him at 268 with the kerry states. Or he could lose NH and pick up NM for 269 and a tied election that Alaska could firmly resolve in Obama's favor.
There are plenty of potential scenarios where picking up Alaska's three electoral votes be the deciding factor. (Just look at the 2000 election!) I think Nate's idea is brilliant and I'd put at least even money we'll see it implemented. No democratic candidate is going to scorn the chance to pick up even three electoral votes after recent history.
The value in a potential Obama visit to Alaska is not so much about picking up the 3 EV at stake. It's about broadcasting to the rest of the electorate that he's running for president of ALL the United States, not just the United Blue States.
And it gives him a chance to define himself that way, rather than have his opponent, his opponent's attack dogs, or the mercurial media do it for him.
That's why I think he'll show up eventually. Good call Nate, as ever.
Personally, I think AK could be flipped without an appearance, just with solid ground operations. If any visit is high cost and low reward, it's Alaska. I wouldn't complain if he did, I just understand why no candidate ever bothers.
I think it's high time Obama flipped on ANWR.
Why not just have "IQ = 3" tattooed on your forehead?
I think that if he went to Alaska and reiterated his decriminalization/state's right position on marijuana, it would win him more votes than it lost.
In fact, I think a trip to Alaska would be good not only for the 2008 election, but for every subsequent election we have down the road.
If no one has visited Alaska since Nixon, we've failed in our duty as Americans and we've failed to show the kind of leadership that the 50 State Strategy demands. We've strategically surrendered the state to Ted Stevens and the GOP. We've philosophically surrendered the state to less than equal status among the 50.
It would require a lot of work, but I think Obama should make at least one campaign stop in every state. There are unquestionably states that require more attention, but being president of the entire nation would start by campaigning to the whole nation. I like it for Obama, but I like it for the loyalty it might bring to the Democratic Party as a party that intends to represent everyone, everywhere.
An Alaskan visit would be a high-profile symbolic indicator that Obama is indeed a unifier and an inclusive change-agent.
The visit alone would energize Democrats and independents alike and show supporters that he's responsive to their enthusiasm. This could resonate nationally if the press coverage is favourable enough.
"I have a hard time believing that Alaska's three delegates are worth sacrificing any amount of time or jet lag"
Alaska is only one time zone away from CA/WA/OR, so I don't think jet lag will come into play.
New Rasmussen Florida poll:
McCain 47
Obama 39
I agree that it's more about the appearance of the visit than about actually winning the state. (If Obama needs Alaska to win, he has big problems.)
It also makes McCain play defense--to the extent that he might pick Palin over, say Crist or Romney. Now that could be worth more than 3 electoral votes.
Last I heard, most Alaskans were in favor of drilling in Anwar. If Obama flipped it would do little to help him win the state, but might make it more difficult to explain his position to people in Florida, who are opposed to offshore drilling.
Make the visit, but use it as an opportunity to make a case for a real energy policy, even if it flies in the face of what Alaskans want. It'll give the impression that Obama can take difficult positions, by seeming to put at risk the votes of people he probably won't get or will certainly not need.
mccain landslide 2008
GO FL
GO Mccain
wow, i was thinking about this just yesterday, before i saw the poll! going and campaigning in AK is an awesome move, but mainly because it makes so much sense electorally...
if obama can hang onto kerry states plus iowa and colorado, that puts him at 269 EVs, just 1 shy of winning. AK, ND, SD, or MT would all be great states to compete in because they get so little attention and a media buy would be super cheap. i think AK is the best one though because it has such a low pop and SOO much of the pop lives around Anchorage and a trip there will draw great media attn. not to mention, an Anchorage crowd of 20,000 at his rally is a nice chunk of the voters, maybe 10% or so of RV's...
i meant 268 votes, not 269, in the post above...
i meant 268 votes, not 269, in the post above...
I honestly doubt Obama can win Alaska. What I see is that even in all these close polls, Obama's number is in the low 40s. It reminds of the primaries where whenever Barack or Hillary had a demographic disadvantage in the state, they consistently polled in the low 40s even in polls that showed a close race. And we know what happened in all those instances. Meanwhile, I suspect McCain's floor is still about 50%, even with Bob Barr and other third-party or independent candidates on the ballot.
I think Obama's ceiling in Alaska probably is in the mid 40s, as I think there are a majority of Alaskans who just won't vote for a liberal President (and I make the point that Obama's Alaska problem is ideology, not race). That's still plenty good enough a performance to help down-ballot Alaska Dems, and maybe an incumbent President Obama running for reelection after 4 years of good governing can pick off this state in 2012. But I don't think even a plurality victory, let alone a majority, is in the cards this year.
Point of order:
This blog is a cut above most others. But it is increasingly RUINED for me by the continuation of a policy of allowing anonymous posts.
Please make some form of ID a necessity.
Why? Because some of the most VALUABLE posts are anonymous.
I have this blog prominently linked to my own and would like to begin using salient comments with proper referencing.
Of course visit Alaska. Because it would be the first visit by a major party candidate, it would get good coverage on the news channels -- far, far more than one more stop in Ohio. Make it a full day visit -- or even two days. Great photo ops provide a background to talk about environmental issues, earmarks, bridges to nowhere, and the Culture of Corruption to generate free media in the Lower 48. It's an easy red-eye flight from any place east of the Mississippi, like say, Chicago, so it doesn't really cost more campaign time than the day actually on the ground. If Obama is gonna be President, he needs to get used to flying overnight anyway.
That's a great idea, Steve. Some of the most valuable posts are by people who choose to be anonymous. Change it so that these people can't post and--tada--no more valuable posts...
Oh, please. Obama doesn't have to visit Alaska.
If he wins Alaska in the fall, it will be because he is already winning in a massive landslide. Alaska is not likely to be the tipping point. The only reason they show any softness towards Democrats right now is because their Republican representatives are pork-addicted.
Besides, if Obama visited Alaska under the pretense of putting it "in play," McCain could easily do two things:
1) Get Sarah Palin on the ticket and suddenly win back the legions of conservatives who adore her but aren't thrilled about him.
2) Call for oil drilling in the ANWR "1002 area," so long as companies use modern, ecologically sensitive, small-footprint drilling techniques. Alaskans overwhelmingly support drilling.
Trying to make Alaska competitive would be a quagmire for the Obama campaign.
Nate,
I noticed that you have increased the weighting of your regression slightly. Why is that?
Even if off-shore and ANWAR were opened up reliable consistent oil would not reach market from those areas until 2018!
Sorry, but people have been saying that since 1995. Of course, back then, they were saying "even if ANWR were opened up, the oil wouldn't reach the market until 2005!"
Hm.
Re: Visiting Alaska. Too bad Maggie O'Connell is a Republican.
Either Rasmussen on the one hand or Quinnipiac and ARG on the other have a messed up voter model for FL, because those results are awful far apart for just a couple of days difference. +4/+5 vs. -8?
Is this, again, because Rasmussen has a more fixed idea of Party identification?
Citizen Grim -
A visit need not indicate a play for Alaska, per se. It could help him in other, easier red states by getting him positive press and help other candidates on the ballot in Alaska.
This is probably the same thing McCain is going for when he pays lip service to competing in Connecticut, Washington, and New Jersey.
""Either Rasmussen on the one hand or Quinnipiac and ARG on the other have a messed up voter model for FL, because those results are awful far apart for just a couple of days difference. +4/+5 vs. -8?
Is this, again, because Rasmussen has a more fixed idea of Party identification?""
Rasmussen seems to have attached their presidential pol in Florida to sentiment about drilling offshore. That issue seems to actually help McCain, which I find rather interesting.
McCain is up 8 in Florida in the Rasmussen Poll. When they bring up oil drilling, McCain's lead extends to a 10 point lead.
We know your site is biased towards Obama, but c-mon now, there is no way Obama is leading in Florida right now. The 538 regression destroys your poll results.
Honestly, this just gives me more reason to fear my nightmare scenario: McCain picking Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate. No better way to shore up Alaska than to pick a Governor with a 70% approval rating in the state.
Plus, picking Palin may peel off women from Obama (and disaffected Hillary voters) and possibly put pressure on Obama to pick Sebelius or Hillary as his VP, not to mention shoring up the Alaska senate race for the GOP.
While part of me is thrilled that Obama is this close in a deeply red state, I've thought for a while now that Palin may be McCain's strongest choice for VP and Alaska being close just gives him one more reason to pick her.
MVRed - what exactly is leading you to believe there's a bias? The only polls in Florida from the last month show Obama leading - unsurprisingly that's what Nate's projecting. The poll lead is actually ahead of the regression.
He couldn't incorporate the new Rasmussen poll before it had been released, and there's no way to add oil drilling to the model...
No open thread so I'll put it here;
Nate gets a mention on Politico article about Obama winning popular vote / loosing EV.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0608/11182.html
I personally wouldn't trust Rasmussen's recent polls since they ar part of the current push for off shore oil drilling. They are heavily pushing the issue spinning it in a positive light and McCain's team is using Rasmussen's data to form policy. Plus their data only samples 1 day which is ridiculous.
'Nightmare scenario'? Hardly.
Is McCain picks Palin as VP then he's shores up a red state - big deal. The female factor is a huge issue, true, but if the main reason McCain picks her is to help him in an already red state then he's making a mistake.
Also, McCain almost certainly won't pick a running-mate until after Obama does so. Obama is the guy people are making judgements on in this election. McCain will pick someone who can attack Obama's vulnerabilities. He can't do that until he knows the whole ticket.
Hi--
Just found out about your site. I've enjoyed it. When will you update today on the Rasmussen polls of today in Florida and elsewhere. I want to see how the numbers fluctuate. Thanks.
One other thing about Alaska. As the smallest population in the country, I believe it has the largest person to electoral vote ratio by far. Aside from travel costs, it has to be the cheapest 3 EV to campaign for in the US.
Considering this post is about visiting Alaska I'll comment on that.
While at first Alaska seems tempting- youngest state- environmental issues, poor republican leadership presently- are tempting, it seems a trip would essentially be for state elections which would indeed in turn help Obama. However, for it to help Obama in this election he would have to bank on a national bump from visiting a neglected far out state.
Although one could argue that it is smart to press the 50 state plan- even if it seems states couldn't turn immediately so that they might in the future (think Howard Dean starting the plan 4 years ago thinking about the current western swing states), in my opinion it is more critical to make sure Obama wins now.
Here is my reasoning-
Yes Alaska has tightened but it is 3 EV. MI, OH, Fl, VI, NM, MO, CO, NV, NH, IN, and NC are all closer in polling or have been switching between the two candidates. Unlike Alaska all of these states are unquestionably in play- and more important states to win. Campaigning in Alaska over these states seems wrong. Plus, that list doesn't include MN, IA, WI, OR, or Penn which have seemed to drift into safer states but all of which McCain is pressing to get. Yes its nice to think about a president going to Alaska- but its more logical to think about a candidate winning- and Alaska seems to have little play in that. As has been noted- if OBama wins Alaska he would have probably already picked up 350+ EV's even before polls close there it would be so lopsided.
Going to Alaska would only make sense to me if Obama were so sure he's going to win (the odds right now may indicate thats fair) that he wants to push the Alaska senate vote over the top to help him reach a 60 senator filibuster in the senate. To me- i'd make absolutely sure going to a state that seems somewhat safe McCain over the dozen or so states I listed that are much closer and more important is really worth it.
Comment on FL: I do think the Q and ARG polls were probably OTL, and the Rasmussen one catches reality as of 3 days ago. (All just "my opinion," of course.)
But then McCain made the mistake of raising the offshore drilling specter, and Bush reinforced it yesterday, followed by Gov. Crist.
This has the effect of once again tying McCain to Bush, and now Crist to both of them, on an issue that many Floridians are sensitive to. You can read editorials in St. Pete Times and Miami Herald today on the "pandering" by McCain and Crist.
McCain created his own wedge issue -- one that will wedge environmentally conscious Floridians of both parties away from his candidacy, and take their minds off some other issues.
So FL may well be in play because McCain made a major misstep and possibly a miscalculation that will assure that FL is in play. More polling there will tell.
Anonymous 10:11
It's basically an issue of diminishing returns in traditional swing states like the ones you list. They'll all be visited by both Obama and McCain dozens of times, so you have to compare the marginal benefit of the first day spent campaigning in Alaska vs. the 30-something-th day spent campaigning in Ohio.
Continuing with my one-track thread of comments, the turnout in Alaska in 2004 was 300,000. For argument's sake, let's say that McCain is currently up 6% in Alaska. That's 18,000 votes.
That means that if Obama can swing 9,000 voters, he gets an extra 3 EV.
How many voters can he swing with a personal visit? Nate, please add that to the list of requests from the peanut gallery. :-)
On anonymous commenting. I keep having trouble getting the thing to register me, or accept the registration I use elsewhere from Blogger.
I counter this by signing my usual Blogger ID at the end.
On the Alaska trip. He probably can't work it in this time of year. The extra light is energizing. Problem is it can backlash when you go back to shorter daylight.
Having lived there for 14 years, I think the biggest benefit for him going is that Alaska has to be experienced to truly grasp the value of the land. Alaskan's get that and it would definitely help in the vote.
Again, there is a large active, reserve and retired millitary population in AK. One of the reasons it has been so reliably red. I think the troops there have done a lot of tours - and possibly more than other places. Like a lot of the enlisted folks, there is a bit of dissatisfaction with the GOP.
Where is the polling that says a majority of Alaskan's support drilling in ANWR?
This is the only one I have found:
Survey done by Dittman Research Corporation, April 1995
On an industry web site.
Ginny in CO
Here's the thing. If Virginia's a swing state, McCain's already lost.
This thing's already gotten away from McCain. His people would have to dig up some serious dirt on Obama to even make a race of this thing. Color me skeptical on that.
I'm with you 100% on this Nate, and add more reasons:
1) Per the Art of War it is important to attack an enemy at his strengths and AK is historically a strength.
2) AK gets bypassed in elections and every state has independents who'll switch if they just get a candidate to show up and ask for their votes.
3) With his planned international tour, it would be the perfect time to drop in on short notice, on his return to the states. Esp if he visits any oil states in the Middle East before the drop-in.
4) Energy states, which include (among others) PA and WV and MT (coal), LA and TX and AK (oil) could be offered something new: preference in alt. energy contracts from the feds, so they'll lose no jobs and may gain some as we break the fossil fuel habits.
5) Ted Stevens seat in the Senate
I doubt McCain will pick a VP to hold onto 3 electoral votes when Fl, OH, VA, NC, CO, NV, MI, MN, NM and IN may be in play.
Unlike past years, Obama's not resting over the summer and he has the cash to run an aggressive 25 state campaign.
I'm still eager to see fresh polls for MT, ND, SD and even the 1 district in NE that Obama has a shot at (for 1 EV). Add the improbable MS even, with its 35% black population, the highest anywhere except DC.
McSame has demonstrated that he makes more mistakes when the pressure's on, so I think Obama should pursue a full court press.
it looks like obama already realizes alaska is in play. hes airing his first general election ad there. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/06/19/obamas-first-general-elec_n_108065.html
i predict a visit sometime soon
By the way, whoever said he's worried that McCain will pick AK Gov. Palin as his running mate is, in my opinion, on the right track.
Great points - and I definitely agree. He should visit Alaska. And like others have said the Senate race is close there and it is possible that their 3 EVs could flip the election if it ends up as close as 2000. With 40% of the population in one city - it should be an easier state to influence than others.
Nate, where is Alaska on your Tipping Point and Must Win lists?
Any way you could make available the list for all states? Perhaps as a link from the front page?
Agreed with the commenter above who said that Sarah Palin is the strongest GOP VP candidate. She's a superstar in the making and would give his campaign a massive boost.
It's an interesting conundrum. If Obama goes there, does he raise AK's profile and therefore Palin's status? If he doesn't go there, does he miss some electoral votes and the opportunity to help the Democrats down-ticket?
Maybe the answer is for him to wait until after the Republican convention. If they put Palin on the ticket, there's no way the Democrats will win the state at the top of the ticket. If they don't put her on the ticket, then Obama ought to go up there and make hay.
I tend to agree with people who think Palin is a superstar in the making, but I think McCain needs a superstar already made.
Whether justified or not, many voters are concerned about McCain's age. These voters will give extra scrutiny to his VP choice. From what I've seen of Palin, I'm not convinced she can make a compelling case that she'd be "ready on day one." I have similar feelings about Jindal.
To use a baseball analogy, I don't expect the GOP to tap their farm system unless they become convinced this is a rebuilding year.
You raise an interesting point, modeler. Even McCain himself has said that his choice of running mate merits extra scrutiny. In the case of the AK governor, I think that could play in favor of the Republicans because it would imply a female president in a reasonably near future.
For that reason, by the way, it might be a tough sell within the Republican camp. When push comes to shove, I'm not sure they'll want to put a woman a heartbeat away from McCain's weak heart.
As pertains to nothing, and everything. I'm a California resident, and I'd rather they drill here than in Alaska. So there. They already have it set up in Santa Barbara, Ca and other wealthy - republican - areas, let the oil maniacs drill where they live, instead of pristine wilderness, like Alaska. I find it hard to believe Alaska residents want them to drill there. Is this really true?
What's with all the jetlag digs? Even with headwinds, Anchorage is only a three-hour flight from Seattle.
And no, not all Alaskans want to drill in ANWR. Lots of us want to leave it untouched.
I honestly don't see Palin as a viable candidate.
She was the mayor of a 50,000 person town 2 years ago, and while she presents well enough up here, Alaska has never been confused with a sophisticated media market (see, e.g. Don Young). Also, she is a creationist. While that might play decently with the base, how would it affect swing voters. Finally, I think pretty much any of Obama's potential running mates would simply fricassee her in VP debates.
I agree with myster about the jetlag but for a different reason. Obama is young and healthy, and McCain is a frail old man with one foot in the grave. Anything Obama can do that requires McCain to overexert himself will be a good idea.
I'm not kidding about that. Put the old goat through his paces. And, by the way, if this sounds "ageist," that's because it is. My 84-year-old mother is in a nursing home and she says everyone there thinks McCain is too old for the job. If anyone knows what it's like to be old, it's the old folks. Just ask 'em.
I have to agree with Pooh. Palin was the mayor of Wasilla, AK (and former Miss Wasilla) only two years ago. Which means all of nothing. Sure she's very popular here in AK but soaring oil prices leading to massive budget surplus doesn't hurt the general attitude in AK. I just don't see it playing on a national scale. Sure, she loves her guns, the "first dude" is a manly man Alaskan, she supports energy and resource extraction but eh there are just too many holes in her to put her on the national stage. And yes, she'd be destroyed by any Obama VP in a debate.
Not to mention she recently gave birth to her FIFTH child at the age of 43 I believe. I doubt she has the time or experience to be a realistic VP candidate. If offered I wouldn't be terribly surprised if she turned it down.
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