Two more reasons why Barack Obama should visit Alaska -- and soon:
Firstly, John McCain would face a tough choice between potentially watching the state flip to Obama and having to pay a visit himself. Apart from the jet lag, what is the downside of visiting Alaska? The McCain team seems to have a fear of acknowledging weakness on the electoral map; hence, their reticence to admit that Virginia (among others) is a swing state. It's one thing for McCain to visit Kentucky or Louisiana -- states that are not especially competitive this year, but that went Democratic as late as 1996. But Alaska has always been as red as red gets. So McCain either looks like he's in panic mode because he has to visit Alaska, or with a little luck for Obama, a poll will come out later this summer showing Obama a couple of points ahead, which might also trigger some bad press for McCain.
Secondly, Obama could force McCain to clarify his position on drilling the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR). McCain has now come out in favor of offshore drilling, but gave a non-answer answer to a Missourian's question about ANWR drilling today, which McCain has consistently and somewhat vocally opposed doing in the past. Most Alaskans want to drill the ANWR, so McCain would either have to (i) explain why he wants to drill everywhere else but not the ANWR -- not an easy sell to Alaskans or (ii) come out in favor of ANWR drilling, which creates a much clearer flip-flop from his previous record. Obama, though he also holds a position on ANWR that would be unpopular with the locals (and probably the rest of the country), can at least place a claim to being consistent. Obama is not going to be able to flip the the offshore drilling issue like he did the gas tax -- it is too easy for McCain to frame it as a matter of national security -- but at least he would be staging the issue in such a way as to encourage McCain to flop.
70 comments
Maybe he should visit Ohio where a Rasmussen poll show him trail 43-44.
I'm having enough of the 50-state strategy. Obama has only campaigned in Ohio for like 7 days altogether compared to 4 weeks in PA.
Yeah, God forbid Obama should use a strategy McCain can't compete with.
That's just so unfair.
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this is a great idea. i hope the obama campaign reads this blog, because visiting alaska would be an excellent move, a great way to take the initiative and play offense. it would get obama press when he goes there and makes a speech about offshore drilling, mccain would have to clarify his position, and it gives obama a chance to dictate the terms of the argument on an issue popular with the base.
nate, this in an outstanding blog. keep up the good work.
I would add there are only 670,000 people in Alaska, making it less populous than even South Dakota. And over 40% of those people are in Anchorage.
A personal visit can have a lot of impact in such a small state. For example, consider the fact that 5,000 voters in the SD primary were the difference between a 10-point win and a tie.
I think it's high time Obama flipped on ANWR. Beats McCain to the punch. Theres enough evidence out there to show that the environmental impact of drilling wouldn't be as serious as it was in the past and it could produce at crap-load of domestic oil (and jobs). It would be the perfect contrast to McCain's proposals to drill of FL and CA, and a way to take the obvious better position on a hot-button issue.
I think going to Alaska would have big propaganda value for Obama. 1) The Democrats already love him there, so they'd be very energized. 2) It's a non-continental state and he's from Hawaii, the other one. I understand there's a strong bond between HI and AK, 3) It's a very American story, going to the last frontier, 4) It's positively Rovian, hitting the GOP in a "strong" point. 5) It will help the down ticket and they will help him 6) Makes McCain spend time and money.
The media will love it!
My sister has lived in AK for six years now, and she has said that if Obama comes up there and gives a speech (and mentions that he believes the Second Amendment reserves an individual right to keep and bear arms, which he does as a constitutional scholar), he can win the state, and do so easily.
The whole drill, drill, drill chant is getting tiring. Even if off-shore and ANWAR were opened up reliable consistent oil would not reach market from those areas until 2018! Sorry but try selling that to people who are upset with $4.50 TODAY. The Rasmussen poll result is misleading as it was taken BEFORE the whole McCain proposal came out. Now that there is serious reporting of the issue, demonstrating that the drill, drill, mantra is nothing more than another pander a la the gas tax holiday (but an even less direct one, as its impact on prices would be YEARS out) I would not be surprised to see in a week a much different result. As to flipping on ANWAR for Obama, why do so. He is already doing well in the state DESPITE holding the position, a flip and I suspect many indies in the state will see him as just another pandering politician (as is now the case with McFlipFlop).
I have a hard time believing that Alaska's three delegates are worth sacrificing any amount of time or jet lag, especially when McCain's offshore drilling enthusiasm should be enough to swing anybody who is moderately considering voting for Obama. Now's not the time to get greedy. Let's just focus on winning.
As a follow-up to my above comment, consider that the US average is about 560,000 people per EV.
In Alaska, it's about 223,000 people per EV. And I suspect the media markets are relatively cheap.
I'm sure the people who came up with Obama's delegate strategy have thought this through and will allocate resources appropriately.
I don't mean to go too off-topic on this, but I miss the EV proportional-size cartogram. Can we get it back on the main page?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doolittle_Raid
An aggressive pitch in Alaska is to the 2008 Election as Doolittle's Raid is to World War II, in the sense that the symbolism and psychological effect of it would make it highly cost-effective despite being only 3 EVs.
A few other things:
1. No "Big 2" party Presidential candidate has visited Alaska since Nixon
2. Alaskans are very proud of their state, and Obama going there would be a sign of respect and valuing their votes which would resonate very well.
3. The symbolism, press coverage, and the fact that it's really not that far from Seattle make it not that "out of the way" in the scope of the long run to the General.
Also, Alaska is mind-blowingly beautiful this time of year- One day based in Anchorage with a stop in some smaller fishing area (Cordova or Seward make the most sense) or Denali/Fairbanks would get him the state in all likelihood.
Spark:
Remember it's not just about 3 EVs: it's also about getting help downticket and Obama, as President, will greatly benefit from having all the Dem Senators he can get.
I think an Alaska visit is a great idea. The state is seeing a big Democratic surge because of corruption. Obama's clean-government message would be well received. He'd also be well-received if, for example, he went to the area where the Bushies want to allow a gold mine to dump pollutants into one of the richest fisheries in the world.
There'd be some great photo ops there in the great outdoors, and if he combined that with visits to Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, and Montana, and maybe a tweak of McCain by making a speech in Tucson, I think he'd get a lot of attention in the West.
If Obama visits, he should do so after the Democratic nominees for the Senate and House seat are officially chosen so he can campaign with them. Right now Begich and Berkowitz are expected to win them, respectively, but they still have yet to do so. I'm not sure when their primaries are though.
I'm surprised you didn't mention the Senate race - all polling shows it as a dead heat, and even if Obama doesn't take the state, he could give the Democrat a boost.
As mentioned though, this should wait until the congressional primaries are over.
It sounds like some people are getting a bit overconfident:
"I have a hard time believing that Alaska's three delegates are worth sacrificing any amount of time or jet lag"
"I'm having enough of the 50-state strategy."
I think a visit to Alaska would be a great idea. Right now the election's looking like a potential landslide, but the only two states Obama has been consistently flipping for months are Iowa and Colorado which would put him at 268 with the kerry states. Or he could lose NH and pick up NM for 269 and a tied election that Alaska could firmly resolve in Obama's favor.
There are plenty of potential scenarios where picking up Alaska's three electoral votes be the deciding factor. (Just look at the 2000 election!) I think Nate's idea is brilliant and I'd put at least even money we'll see it implemented. No democratic candidate is going to scorn the chance to pick up even three electoral votes after recent history.