The National Review's John Hood:
With the supercharged 24-hour news cycle, the burgeoning blogosphere, and the legions of journalists furiously scribbling as much as they can before craigslist.com kills off their employers, it’s seems like the 2008 presidential contest has already been analyzed from every possible angle, by everyone with an angle. In fact, it feels as though we’ve already had several national elections since last summer. And yet we’ve only just begun the general-election campaign Tuesday night with Barack Obama weakly clinching the Democratic nomination while losing one of the final two primaries and John McCain blandly promising a respectful contest with his fresh-faced Senate colleague.It's easy to grow tired of the sheer volume of political coverage. This will wind up being the longest presidential campaign in the history of the Republic, dominating the news cycle for 15 months essentially unabated. Barack Obama and John McCain have taken their share of hits, and shown their share of warts, and will continue to do so.
We’re stuck with these two mediocrities for the rest of the year. What’s more, we’re also going to be subjected to hundreds of mainstream-media mediocrities endlessly recycling the same trite observations, then revising the observations, then rediscovering the original observations, ad nauseatium.
Candidates never look good at this stage of the political cycle, any more than football players do after playing a game in the mud. But I tend to think that these are two of the objectively stronger candidates that have been nominated in some time, creating perhaps the best matchup since the Kennedy-Nixon race of 1960. Barack Obama and John McCain each have classic and proud American biographies. Obama is probably the best political athlete since Bill Clinton; John McCain has a brand so strong that even Democrats feel obligated to compliment him. How many Republicans would rather have George W. Bush running again? How many Democrats would rather have John Kerry than Obama?
45 comments
Nate wrote (in the earlier thread): "I don't really feel badly at all about our projection in South Dakota. There were versions of the model that had Obama winning by 10 or 11 points, and there were versions that had Clinton winning by 7 or 8 points."
I don't think Nate should feel badly either. His model is really interesting and it is fun to see what it predicts (and it has had some unambigious great successes). Still, I do think that the model did badly in SD tonight (which is different from saying that Nate should feel badly). A couple things: (a) it sounds like the model had a 20 pt margin of error depending on slight adjustments; that is way too much flexibility to be happy with the model; and (b) Clinton's margin of victory (10 pts.) was beyond even the most pro-Clinton version of the model. That seems problematic.
Finally, Nate's note suggests that the model can kind of serve as a reality check for the polls. But is that how it has worked so far? That is, when the model and polls are both off, does the average of the two of them come close to the real result?
I'm one Dem who'd rather have Kerry than Obama. Kerry actually contested swing states, which Obama does not seem interested in doing.
I'm going to hold off on pronouncing McCain "objectively strong" until we've seen a little bit of the general.
He backed into the Republican nomination almost by default when all his opponents were found with a fatal flaw. It's hard for me to see him having prevailed in a primary with an opponent of the strength of either Obama or Clinton - or Edwards for that matter.
Once the Obama campaign has had a few months with him, maybe a debate, if he's still looking good I'll call him strong. In the meantime, he's iffy with his base, lagging in fundraising, facing an opponent who can also appeal to independents, and somehow had months for free when the Dems were fighting and didn't do much with it. His best move up to now has simply been not quitting in 2007; so far, I'm not impressed.
Certainly agree with you about Obama, though. ;)
That's a bizarre comment.
I bet most republicans would rather have George W Bush running than John McCain.
I've been cheering for a McCain-Obama match up for several months. I think it's a functional equivelant of Texas v. USC a couple years ago.
Anon @00:39 --
I think most democrats would too. Maybe something can be arranged?
Yes ... I think Obama would love to run against Bush. In fact that's who he's trying to make McCain into (and I support this strategy 100%.)
But yeah, I'm far more excited about Barack Obama than I was about Kerry. Don't get me wrong, I supported Kerry and I voted for him - but this year I'm actually donating to Obama - I'm wearing Obama shirts - I'm planning on campaigning for him. You know, the excitement level is much higher because he's someone I believe in - rather than just voting against the Republicans - which I'd do pretty much no matter who the Dems ran.
I'd rather have John Kerry than Obama--if Kerry were running for reelection.
I think John Hood has lost sight of the big picture - perhaps because of the 24-hour news cycle. Obama came from nowhere in 6 months to knock off the best the nearly fabled Clinton political machine had to offer. His late primary losses don't reflect weakness so much as the difficulty of the contest.
The Ds have had two exceptionally strong candidates, both of whom have run powerhouse campaigns by any historical standard.
Its too early to tell about McCain yet; I always think the Rs are mediocre.
I got that George Bush "eh heh heh heh" feel watching McCain smile in his speech. It was...probably just a normal smile and something that completely should not matter, but it didn't look good.
How many Democrats would rather have John Kerry than Obama?
2 - and their names are John and Teresa.
To the last anon, that is false. I happily voted for Kerry in 2004 and will begrudingly vote for Obama in 2008. Obama may be a great campaigner but I don't think he will make a good president even though I agree with most of his policies.
Nate or Sean,
Please disable anonymous comments. I have read very few interesting comments, and many mean-spirited or foolish ones, by the unnamed legions which have descended on your excellent site.
Pollster.com's commentary improved greatly after they required sign-ins. I think the intelligent commenters will be willing to get a google/blogger or OpenID, or at least give a URL.
There is some truth that a high percentage of Anonymous commenters seem to be trolls, on any kind of comment board.
I couldn't disagree with John Hood more strongly. It seems to me that this is a very rare year where both parties have selected the best possible candidate from their respective nomination contests, if serving the larger national interest is your first concern.
Both Obama and McCain are committed to courting moderates - a slap in the face to Rovian politics.
Both of them are committed to ideological heterodoxy with regard to the prevailing dogmas of their respective parties.
Both of them seem like honorable men who genuinely love their country and feel called to public service out of a mix of personal ambition and selflessness which tilts more strongly to the latter (than to the former) than any such pair of candidates in recent memory.
While they may differ on policy matters, both of them seem more committed to open government and to positive campaign tactics, than any such pair of candidates in recent memory.
Is there really anyone out there who feels that we have been unfairly deprived of the Gulliani-Clinton subway series that many pundits felt we were destined to get when this process started?
If you put aside for a moment partisan considerations of who would be easier to run against, for one side or the other, then it seems to me that for a country which has been at times bitterly divided along partisan lines during the Bush years, we have obtained the best possible matchup, out of all the permutations that were available.
May the best canidate win.
It's interesting. About a year ago, I looked at the GOP potential nominees and I concluded that the only way the GOP stood a chance against any of the Dems' top 6 candidates was if they nominated McCain. Being a left-wing Dem, I was consequently pretty happy when he went bankrupt. Somehow, the GOP got their stuff together and nominating him anyway. So goes the world.
Same here, Neek. eighteen months ago, I thought McCain was the only chance for a GOP victory. Then by the summer he was running fourth and needed the feds to bail him out financially...I figured, well his bid is over...and yet somehow he won the nomination. Amazing really. And meanwhile the Dems are doing their best to take themselves out of contention again. Truly a remarkable primary season this year.
No candidate is ever perfect. I think so many people realize that the country has been so badly led the last 7 years that they aren't looking for perfection in a president. They just want a caring, honest, and good manager who can provide a sense of optimism as we confront several huge and urgent issues.
Two facinating candidates who have the ability to energize large crowds ... more people than ever engaged in the political process ... the whole world watching and indeed reevaluating their opinions of the USA. Not to mention the fact that both candidates have made personal mistakes in the past and have readily admitted to them (Obama and drugs, McCain with Keating and his first marriage), so there's a better chance of this campaign focusing on the issues. Roll on November.
I don't think "strongest" is the right word - McCain is a sputtering speaker, forced by the demands of the GOP primary to endorse a number of stupid ideas - which have cut away from the one thing that makes McCain NOT just another Bob Dole.
Obama is an overrated orator (Clinton's oratory sold us on the need for reforms to make America competitive again, Reagan's sold us on renewed free market economics - Obama's is all pep talk... people say he inspires them - but to do what), who is particularly adept at making his opponents look racist.
The notion that this election is a watershed for bipartisanship is an overstatement as well. Obama is an extremely liberal senator who has trailed Clinton in moderates all election. His electability comes not from winning over moderates, but from raising voter turnout in his party's core support among students, African Americans and the creative class. If the past months are any indication, he will continue to evade debate, and dishonestly cast McCain as Bush II.
Nor is McCain particularly sacrosanct on that measure as well. McCain has an actual record of bipartisanship, but still has about an lifetime 80% conservative record, according to the ACU. Moreover on the issues likely to be debated, the war, healthcare and getting the economy moving, McCain is very much a conservative, who will seek to paint Obama as being not up to the job as commander in chief.
Interesting is a far better adjective than strong. For starters, McCain's lack of ability as a conventional campaigner (and lack of money) forces him towards unprecedented openness. Similarly, big stadiums full of the faithful is Obama's best bet.
Both Obama and McCain have compelling life stories, both are media darlings, both reject the "fast buck" of bribing voters and both have such a strong reputation as decent men, that makes overtly dishonest flim-flammery more costly to them in the long-run.
Oddly enough, I became convinced in full we should nominate Obama instead of Clinton when McCain became the Republican nominee. I think Clinton could've beaten any other Republican in the race, but the combination of her high negatives and McCain's crossover appeal worried me greatly.
I shouldn't have worried, though--I think this is a year where almost any Democrat would beat almost any Republican.
Nate, first of all, congratulations on a very accurate Montana result.
Have the pollsters really asked yet what the result of an Obama-Clinton ticket would be? I should imagine that it could only secure states for Obama - but which ones?
Anonymous at 12:33,
You wrote "Kerry actually contested swing states, which Obama does not seem interested in doing."
Writing from the Kentucky Capitol Annex Cafeteria, I must respectfully note that there are only two states that Obama did not contest fiercely, and neither Kentucky nor West Virginia are swing states in any serious sense of the term.
Obama has the intellect, the energy, and the temperment to master new issues as they come at him--and the Presidency requires that every day. Beyond that, he has the most moving vision of the country since Reagan for the Republicans and Bobby Kennnedy for the Democrats, both in what he sees and how he shares it, and the strongest understanding of how organizing can change political outcomes.
And the party, at last, is ready to go for the best candidate without letting nonsense like race slow us down.
A truly wonderful day to wake up and start working.
Like 2000 and 2004 its all going to come down to a few swing states... which probably will be led by Ohio and Michigan this year as the top prizes up for grabs, and smaller prizes like New Hampshire, Colorado, and New Mexico. I think Florida is safely McCain so we won't have to deal with that state again.
Mediocrities is a pretty ridiculous description. McCain is an amazing politician. If the GOP had nominated Romney, he'd be down 15 points right now and the election would be a foregone conclusion. Frankly, if the political climate was not so bad for the GOP, McCain would probably be a big favorite over Obama.
Obama has amazing political talents but also substantial weaknesses. I don't think he could win a general election against McCain in a year in which party identification was roughly equal across the two parties like 2000 or 2004. Not to be a wet blanket, but it just doesn't seem likely given his liabilities among some elements of the democratic base. But, thankfully, we're not in that kind of year and he should be a significant favorite to win this election.
Nate, you can't take John Hood too seriously. He's most likely upset that McCain got the nod over some of the darlings of the right, so he wants to take a shot at McCain. He also places undue weight on the SD primary in an attempt to take a shot at Obama. It's just the frustration of someone who is personally dissatisfied with both nominees.
Republican strategists will admit McCain was the only hope for Republicans this year, and if he goes back to being the year 2000 McCain he might be the best hope for the restoration of the Republican party.
Obama is a formidable candidate, and if anything the last few weeks have shown the difference he can make when vigorously contesting a contest. He has been in general election mode, leaving the Clinton tag-team to make significant progress in small states like SD. While they had nothing better to do than blanket the state with campaigning, he was off to Florida, Michigan, Colorado, and other general election swing states. If he is as effective when vigorously contesting those states as he has been in the primaries, the Republicans have every reason to be worried.
h2h, I have a bone to pick with some of your comments.
Obama's is all pep talk... people say he inspires them - but to do what
I've heard that before, and honestly, comments like that make me wonder whether people are listening to his speeches, or just listening to commentators talk ABOUT his speeches.
His speeches are loaded with proposals and specifics. So is his website. The idea that he talks blandly about hope and change is simply a canard.
Obama is an extremely liberal senator
Well, he ain't Jesse Helms, and his views on ethics reform could be described as extremely progressive, if you put them through a partisan lens. but Obama's rankings by liberal groups put him closer to the moderate wing of the party than the liberal end, and his rankings from conservative groups are pretty much the same.
Much like with Howard Dean in 2004, the "extremely liberal" label is caused by Obama's foreign policy stances.
who has trailed Clinton in moderates all election.
You're right... except for all of January and February, when the large majority of the votes were cast. Obama was winning the independents and crossover Republicans until the end of the Republican primaries (which swelled the crossover vote and skewed the demographics somewhat). He still won them in several states after that.
He has a strong appeal with independents who like his "change the culture of Washington" message. Those same voters tended to see Hillary as an establishment figure.
Nor is McCain particularly sacrosanct on that measure as well. McCain has an actual record of bipartisanship, but still has about an lifetime 80% conservative record, according to the ACU. Moreover on the issues likely to be debated, the war, healthcare and getting the economy moving, McCain is very much a conservative
I mostly agree. He's held some anti-GOP positions in the past on taxes and immigration, but he's more or less abandoned those stances in the quest for the nomination. About the only major issue where he is notably left of his party core is the environment, where he is arguably a moderate.
I have fond memories about some columnist in Chicago declaring the 2004 Illinois democratic senate field a bunch of boring mediocrities. I wonder if she ever revised that assessment after Obama's convention speech or any other time after.
Let's consider the source: John Hood is a right-winger who writes for the conservative National Review. He dislikes McCain for not being a "true conservative" (whatever that means -- he sure sounds like a Republican to me). and dislikes Obama for being, well, Obama. Hood has a vested interest in slagging both candidates.
Personally, I think it'll be a bang-up Autumn in what has been one of the most interesting American political elections ever.
Well there are differences in the quality and clarity of ideas as well as actions. If anyone doubts that they can just compare the speeches by McCain, Obama, and Clinton at the AIPAC convention. This morning Obama hit every note, both in tone and substance, about America's relationships with Israel. And at the same time, he got in licks on McCain (and Bush), while not striking a particular partisan tone.
Does this mean all the Clinton stuff will come off the homepage soon since it is now over?
Yeah, I wonder about that as well. Are we focusing strictly on Obama-McCain from here on out?
Patience, guys. Can't you wait a few days, at least, to see what happens during the rest of this week, and through the next round of polls?
Nate will have ample rationale for revising the webpage, and omitting Clinton, after the pollsters completely stop providing new Clinton vs. McCain matchups.
Then I would suggest that he just archive the last set of maps, for those who want to consult the "status as of June 5" (or whatever date it is), and make it available on the site. But he can revise the format for the next stage of the race.
I hope he can set up some tabs and tags that also allow us to 'find' authors of blogs (e.g., Nate and Sean and whoever else he may invite to participate).
Also, I would like to see him tracking Senate and House races, and eventually also perhaps Governorships and statehouse partisan balance. But he'll probably need more allies to do that.
Regarding all this talk in the media of Hillary as VP, I couldn't help but think of a Baseball Prospectus parallel - Would picking Hillary be the equivalent to a team signing a 33-year old center fielder to a multi-million dollar, 4-year contract in the hopes of winning the World Series this year? The upside is you might increase the odds you win the World Series. The downside is you're stuck with that player through the remainder of the contract.
Can you remove Clinton from this projection site now? I would gladly assist with the CSS work, but it just really muddy's things up.
Hi Nate,
I also would encourage you to follow the lead of pollster.com and require registration and sign ins. This would lead to much more civil and useful exchange of ideas. I have witnessed the demise of many blog comment sections due to the the influx of anonymous vandals and angry people who need a place to vent. Over time, this will reduce the quality of your site as these nasty kinds of people realize they can dominate the conversation.
You might also explore the model developed by Ratemyprofessors.com. They also faced the issue of libelous and mean spirited anonymous comments and moved to a registration system. Doing so markedly improved the quality of the site, made it much more interesting to read, and much more useful to use in educational contexts. I have started directing my students to your blog given the quality of your work and the quality of the conversations. I would encourage you to do something to protect your brand/blog!
Thank you for all your hard work!
I support Obama because:
1) His fundraising machine is a juggernaut
2) The way he's energized young voters has the potential to carry democrats for the next couple decades (especially since all the Millennial Generation won't reach voting age until 2020).
3) A Hillary Clinton White House would likely look like the Bill Clinton White House with some rearranged deck chairs. I think we need to wipe the slate clean in that regard.
Regardless of whether Obama wins in the fall (and I think he will), his nomination just carries so much more positive benefits for the democratic party than Hillary's would have.
It sounds morbid, but in twenty years most of her base will likely be dead, while Obama's could be the most loyal voters the Democrats have.
When will the stat graphis be jut Obama McCain? I am hoping this will be a daily focus on this contest. I feel it stoll looks like who does better with McCain whereas I assume new polling will reflect the two person contest.
I have this impression after reading John Hood's commentary that he's confused as to the date. It's 2008 not 2004. Perhaps someone could let him know? And while you're at it, tell him that he needs to have his eyes and ears examined. Presidency of John Locke Foundation, one would think, requires sharp senses being that Locke was the father of English empiricism... And yet all we see in this piece are Hood's personal feelings... Perhaps he should apply to Schopenhauer's Foundation? Thou they require brooding not vile...
From March through the end, Obama performed better among independents than overall in 11 of 13 primary states. I don't know that he lost any steam at all among independents. Maybe Nate will do an analysis.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21226003
independents
tx Obama 49 Clinton 48
oh 50-48
vt 65-35
ri 47-52
ms 53-43
pa 54-46
in 54-46
nc 45-50
wv 32-54
ky 40-47
or 68-32
mt 63-34
sd 50-50
There is only exit poll data on Republicans in six of those states.
tx 53-46
oh 49-49
ms 25-75
in 46-54
nc 32-61
mt 54-40
Operation Chaos and Clinton's right turn definitely hurt Obama here.
Interesting thoughts about the townhalls. I've thought, thought, that some of it has to do with money. McCain gets a lot of free press -- and thus does not have to spend those dollars -- if they are engaged in an ongoing series of debates throughout the summer. It gives him lower cost national media exposure.
Of course, the NR is one of those "media mediocrities": Their one-sided and often fabricated coverage is only matched by their need to label all of their blog posts "JOHN MCCAIN BARACK OBAMA JOHN MCCAIN JOHN MCCAIN BARACK OBAMA (ad infinitum)" to try and game Google.
The clothes make the man, and loudly claiming to be the best-dressed guy at the party doesn't make your Members-Only jacket any less tacky.
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