There are some good polling results for Barack Obama today -- but not really in the places where he needs them. Take for instance Rasmussen's poll in Alabama, where Obama now trails John McCain by 15 points after having been 28 points behind before. Or the new SurveyUSA poll in Massachusetts; SurveyUSA finally gives Obama a 13-point lead in the Bay State after he had failed to break single digits in any of the six polls they had released in Massachusetts earlier this year. But Massachusetts is too blue, and Alabama too red, to matter in this election.
In Florida, on the other hand, Rasmussen has John McCain holding steady with a 7-point lead. Rasmussen had surveyed Florida barely a week ago, then showing McCain ahead by 8 points. The main problem that Rasmussen seems to be detecting for Obama in Florida is that the Democratic defection rate remains relatively high -- he's losing 20 percent of Democrats to McCain, and 4 percent to "some other candidate". The puma is native to Florida, I would point out. Nevertheless, since Quinnipiac and ARG seem to feel differently about the state, it might be time to get a Mason-Dixon or a SurveyUSA on the case. Hell, I'll even take an Insider Advantage poll.
Rasmussen also sees no movement toward Obama in Georgia, where he trails in their survey by 10 points, just as he did a month ago. Unlike Insider Advantage, which found Bob Barr polling in the mid-single digits, Rasmussen gives him just 1 percent support. I have been a little inconsistent in my treatment of Georgia. It is a state that Obama could win if a number of things go right, but then again, that's true of probably 40 of the 50 states on the map this year.
Lastly, SurveyUSA has Obama ahead by 2 points in Virginia. This brings SurveyUSA into line with Rasmussen and PPP, each of which show nearly identical numbers, but is a step backward for Obama from SurveyUSA's May poll, which had Obama up 7 points in Virginia. As I argued yesterday, if you see a result that looked aberrant before -- and a 7-point lead for Obama pre-unity bounce definitely looked a little weird -- you sometimes have to ignore the trendlines and take the result on its own merits. Virginia is perhaps the closest state on the map at the moment -- the state whose county names we might all learn by heart staying up late on Election Night -- and all the polling is reflecting that.
6.30.2008
Today's Polls, 6/30
@ 7:27 PM
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That's some bad news for Obama if we're staying up late to watch Virginia. That means he's been beaten easily earlier in the night in Ohio and/or Michigan or some other states that should have him at about 290-300 electoral votes without Virginia.
Puma jokes going meta in 3...2...1...
Yeah, I like Obama should write off FL and focus on other 2004-red states like CO, NM, VA, OH, IA, AK, and MO. FL has too many old Democrats that won't vote for him (like my grandma).
well, Virginia is EST, so we'll proably know abot it before the result is final in OH or MI
PPP will release a Florida poll, most likely tomorrow, with a result somewhere in between the most recent Rasmussen and Quinnipiac surveys of the state.
Tom Jensen
PPP
What I'd be interested in is, as Rasmussen weights their surveys by party ID while SUSA does not, is the weights Rasmussen uses. Do we know them? Are they being liberal or conservative (not in a political but a temperamental sense)?
Does Quinnipiac weight by party ID?
If we ever have a situation where the pollsters who don't weight are regularly showing a better picture for Obama than those who do, one could conjecture that the party ID model used by those pollsters is out of date and doesn't sufficiently take into account the Dems' growing advantages, the voter registration drives, or whatever else. But I've no clue if we have anything approaching that kind of situation right now.
I wonder why Obama is investing any time or effort in Georgia and I think that will quickly fade as the campaign goes along.
Maybe they have internals that are more positive than the public polling is showing, but I just never bought the Barr Georgia phenomena. Barr just doesn't have any money and without money you can't run a campaign at all.
Even if he ran flat out all the time in Georgia, I doubt his final vote would be enough to matter. I think Obama's campaign is spinning here, trying to psyche out McCain and it's not working.
Yes there are lots of African Americans, but even if you add 30-40% to the African American vote in Georgia, he probably still loses.
I'd really like to see more emphasis on Indiana. I think there's something to the old Confederacy that just isn't going to vote for a black man for President. Every single Union State in the civil war is now Obama territory but in every single rebel state he's trailing or at best tied (Virginia).
Forget Florida and concentrate on states he has a chance to win. What's wrong with Missouri? Why isn't he making more of an effort there? I would think that's at least as likely as North Carolina and a hell of a lot more likely than Georgia.
If Obama wins however, that could totally change depending on how he does. If successful, then all doors are open. If not, it's a setback.
Since wrapping up the nomination, Obama has improved greatly in the south and the border states. We've seen improvements in Alabama, Kentucky, and Tennessee now. Obama was getting slaughtered in the polls there, but now he's not running any worse than any other non-Southern Democrat. I suppose that's good news.
Spike, I hate to burst your bubble, but both OH and MI (except for the UP) are EST as well.
Ohio and all but the 4 counties bordering WI in MI are EST too- so they should be known before VA- since VA seems to be closer- especially since the 4 counties in MI have very few residents
The puma was native to all of the Lower 48 prior to European colonization!
Yes, OH and MI are Eastern, but their polls close at 8:30 and 8:00 respectively, and VA's close at 7:00. So we'll likely know VA first (IN closes even earlier, IIRC).
Can someone post when polls close on election day.
I'm interested in seeing the PPP NC poll.
I am curious about this issue of how much money to spend in various places. I can see both sides of it. GA is the perfect example.
I think the biggest lesson of the primary was its pretty easy to run up the score when the opposition isn't playing defense.
If Obama is in GA and McCain isn't, can he win it?
I believe he can. I believe he can win a couple of these states if McCain leaves them uncontested.
I also believe that he would benefit more in OH, MI, etc if McCain has to spread the field to play defense than if it is a direct battle there (even if Obama has significantly more resources there).
If he can keep GA in striking range, he should totally attack there. He can easily win without it, but I'm not sure McCain can. Its hard for me to picture any scenario where Obama wins GA and loses. Same goes with FL and couple other longshot states.
You do have to be realistic though. If a state isn't within 6 by labor day, pull the plug.
A lot of "Democrats" in Florida haven't voted for a Democratic candidate for President since the 60s. In the last election we saw counties with 75% Democratic registration go 80-20 for Bush. It's not unusual in some of the more rural areas.
I agree. I don't think Florida will be a swing state. Obama should look elsewhere. There are a few ways to 270. For the purposes of this I define "base" as the Kerry states minus NH plus Iowa:
1. Base + Ohio = Win
2. Base + Virginia = Win
3. Base + NH + Colorado + Nevada = Win
4. Base + NH + Colorado + N Mexico = Win
I wonder if the media will mention nearer the election (if it remains close) that a tie is certainly possible. Obama wins the Kerry states + Nevada + NMexico + Iowa = 269. Certainly very possible
I like the new senate scorecard, but it would be even better if we could see the distribution of actual possibilities, like for the presidential election. It's easier to gauge the mean, median, and standard deviation that way.
Cugel,
I see the point you're making about union vs. confederacy states, but I have to nit pick. First of all I assume you're not counting border states (Missouri and Kentucky) that remained in the union but permitted slavery. Second I assume you're not counting free states that joined the union after succession (Nevada and West Virginia). But even so, Kansas was admitted to the union as a free state nine days before the Confederacy was declared and months before the war actually started with the attack on Fort Sumter.
Sorry for the brief (and random) history lesson.
If I were in charge of ad buys for the Obama campaign my priorities would be VA, MO, ND-MT-AK, IN and NC. That's 28 electoral votes from southern states and 31 from non-southern.
Obama may have 2-3 times as much money as McCain. I hope he does invest some money/time in - well not really a 50-state strategy - but in every region of the country.
This is a historic opportunity to build a democratic party that can compete on a national-level once again. If he doesn't invest in that possibility the moment will pass.
While we are on the topic of how Obama is spending is money, I think that he should also focus on the West. States like AK, ND, SD, MT have all been pretty reliable republican states as of recent, but Obama is polling (in whatever little polling there is) close. States like these are small enough where just making an effort to campaign (something Democrats haven't done) will convince voters. An Obama campaign trip to AK could possibly do the trick, or at least force McCain to make a trip as well.
Nate, I have a polling question that I'm not exactly sure how to ask, so I'll just sort of point out the problem. As you note, today's Rasmussen poll of Florida basically just reinforced last week's Rasmussen poll in Florida - if anything it was slightly (one point) better for Obama. Yet, compared to the overall average of Florida polling, it was a pretty bad result, since Obama had been ahead in several polls from other firms. The same is true of MA - today's poll was maybe slightly worse than the existing average, but far better than earlier polls by the same firm.
Do you adjust your results in any way to take account of things like this - i.e., treat the Rasmussen Florida poll as being +1 for Obama relative to what we previously knew? I assume not. But is there anything to this, any reasonable way to do this, any reason why you might want to do this?
I hope that makes sense. Thanks.
at Tom: The weight of poll depends on several things. These include the sample size, the pollster's reliability as assessed from previous contests, the amount of time lapsed since the last poll, and whether more recent polls from the same pollster are available. The mathematics are probably more detailed than you want (based on sum of squares error analysis), but the short answer is that all earlier Rasmussen polls in a particular state will be de-weighted to some degree, with only the latest poll receiving full weight.
edit: "the amount of time lapsed since the poll was taken,"
Poor Nate he only looks at the topline numbers and never the crosstabs in polls. Take SUSA's VA poll out today. Nate reads the +2 Obama advantage and reads it as SUSA returning to the mean. I however looked at the cross tabs and found a 6 pt Obama lead. How? Look at SUSA's subsample for African Americans. It shows McCain receiving 25% of the African American vote! That is utterly stupid. Look at the Quin polls, who have a larger sample of voters sampled (and hence a lower MOE) and you see Obama getting 90%+ percent of the African-American vote. Adjust SUSAs African American subsamples to reflect reality and not a bad number floating on a high MOE and you get Obama picking up at least 2 percent more and McCain getting at least 2 percent less for a final breakdown of 51 to 45+ 6 pt lead.
lilnev,
"the short answer is that all earlier Rasmussen polls in a particular state will be de-weighted to some degree"
So, a new Rasmussen poll will lower the weights on earlier Rasmussen polls, but not affect the weight of earlier Survey USA polls (for example)? That makes sense and at least somewhat addresses what I'm talking about.
Thanks.
To those recommending Obama spend money in AK/MT/ND/SD - I'm not saying that's a bad idea, but look at the map first. In particular, look to where McCain needs to spend it.
McCain is leading in states that total 232 EV's. That means, in addition to those states, McCain needs VA + NM + CO just to get to 250 or 259 EV.
Then he needs something to put him over the top:
OH, or
MI, or
PA, or
NH + IA or OR, or
any of the above states + MN or WI
So, that's where McCain will be spending his money heaviest, and where the R's will be playing dirty tricks to the hilt. They'll use tactics like printing up and distributing 10,000 flyers to minority neighborhoods in Detroit "reminding people to vote on Wed, Nov. 5th".
So, Obama needs to deny those states to McCain first. And do massive voter education so people don't get fooled by the R's ratfucking, in addition to the voter registration and GOTV.
That's defense. Next is offense: where else does McCain have problems, what other states could Obama pick up? MO, IN, NV, and NC.
Next is FL. It's worth 27 EV. You can't cede it to the R's. Even if Obama he can't win it due to Republican election fraud, it's still important to build the party there and make them spend the money defending it.
We all make jokes about how McCain is just playing head games when he says he'll fight for PA or MN, that he doesn't stand a chance there. Well, he's not joking. McCain *can't* win without getting some of Obama's 'safe' states. So he must fight in them.
And that means Obama has to fight in them, and spend money there too. Again, those states are, roughly in order of importance: CO, NM, VA, MI, OH, PA, IN, MO, NV, NC, and FL.
Then Obama needs to cover the other potential pick-ups. First comes the SE: GA, MS, LA, and maybe SC. As the first African-American presidential candidate, Obama has a unique opporunity to re-engage and re-enfranchise black and democratic voters in the south. You can be damn sure he's going to take it.
And *then* comes AK/MT/ND/SD. All four are potentially flippable states, and I'm sure Obama will put in the advertising and infrastructure dollars to make that possible. They're very important in terms of building the party, especially for future efforts.
But let's not fool ourselves. Look at the win percentages on the left. AK/MT/SD/ND are no more likely, at this point in time, to flip for Obama than NH/PA/IA/OR/MI are to flip for McCain.
Sure, with the economy souring, the Obama campaign needs to put in some work in AK/MT/SD/ND so that they can be prepared if/when voter sentiment turns there.
But the top priority is to make sure our base is shored up, and that the toss-up states remain competitive: i.e., CO, NM, VA, MI, OH, PA, IN, MO, NV, NC, and FL.
.
I have always thought that FL is too high a hill to climb for Obama. I think Clinton would have lost their as well too but had a better chance. FL because of all the old folks and Northern FL are low information voters who most likely believe the smears about Obama. Florida has only gone Dem once since 1980. Clinton even lost it in 1992 but barely won it in 1996 because of low voter turnout. Gore only came close in FL because Lieberman was on the ticket.
Obama will win the general election without FL. Rust belt states vote Democratic when the economy is the main issue so Obama will win OH, PA and MI with no problem. The new states he can add are VA, CO and possible GA and NC.
Clinton was far more risky because she needed FL because While I think she would have won OH, PA and MI also depending on who McCain picked as VP she had a very good chance of losing NH, IA, MN, WI, CO and VA because the independents in those states could are more attracted by McCain.
One last note on AK/MT/ND/SD:
Add all four of them together and you get a grand total of 12 EV. It doesn't help Obama to win all four of them if McCain win even one of the larger "leans Obama" states like MI, OH, or VA.
.
Rasmussen is very biased.
Scott Rasmussen is a republican.
The survey was conducted in partnership with Fox Television Stations, Inc.
He is partner with Faux Noise.
Anon @ 7:52
You can find each sate's poll closing times at http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G08/.
The earliest ins Indiana, most of which closes at 6:00 pm EST (although the northwestern counties are CST, and are likely to be pro-Obama.
A number of states close at 7:00 and 7:30 EST, but if the turnout is quite high, these times will be formalities, as votes will not be reproted until those in line at closing time have voted.
Remember that in Va the polls close at 7:00 am, but in 2006 we didn't know the winner of the senate race n 2006 until the next day. Expect even longer lags this year than in 2006.
What might be interesting is to attempt to figure out proxy measures for staes expected to be close. For example, if we are interested in VA, which we won't know about until late (presumably), NC may a surrogate. its polls close at 7:30 (mostly). NC is more Republican than VA, so a failure to call it for McCain several hours after poll closing would be a good sign for Obama.
Also, NH is expected to go for Obama. It closes at 7:00. Depending on the lines at the polls, if it remains too close to call several hours later it's a potentially good sign for McCain.
These are just thoughts off the top of my head so they are extremely tentative sugggestions. We've got more the four months to come up with better ones.
It is my impression thgat the newworks have agreed not to "call" states until all polls have closed in that state, in which case Fl, IN, MI and NC will be an hour later.
Texas also has a small bit in the Mountain time zone; ID, in the Pacific, but if we're concerned about TX or ID, Obama will have already won.
@ J Gabriel:
An imfortant factor with states like those is the media buys may be quire inexpensive. I have no real idea how much it would cost to cover enough of one of those sates to put it in play, but it might be small.
As an illustration, although NM is alrady targeted, media buys in Albuquerque cover most of the state (at least through cable) and essentially nothing that isn't in the state. the little Texas counties get their TV from Lubbock TX, and the Las Cruces area gets it from El Paso, but I seem to recall that the ABQ stations were available on cable in Las Cruces.
What's the point with the pumas? I don't get it...
And no, I'm not thick, I'm just Dutch :-)
Florida is not lost if...
Florida was safe blue for Hillary so why must it be out of reach for Obama?
Hillary convinced the voters that they had been ripped off (true) that it was Obama's fault (false) and that she was going to fight till the bitter end to do something about it (false).
Now she should go back & spend the rest of the campaign undoing the damage. She has to tell them that she was economical with the truth, and it was never Obama's fault. She is the only one who can clean up her mess.
That will be humiliating but she is efectivly demanding something like $10,000,000 for the job.
I still believe that Ohio will be crucial in this election - it is the closest of the big swing states, and it is McCain's only hope to throw all he's got at it.
According to Nate's predictions, if McCain loses Ohio, his chances of winning the election are only 12.56%. If McCain loses Ohio, his chance of victory is only 9%.
It would be a catastrophic error of judgment for Obama to give up on Florida. Leaving aside the fact that only Rasmussen has him behind and Quinnipiac and ARG have him ahead (and Tom Jensen from PPP has indicated above that PPP will today have it as a toss up), it is vital that Obama commits resources to the state to ensure that McCain spends money there also. Florida is an expensive media market and the longer McCain spends there the less time and money he has to fight in the states that will decide the election.
In that respect, JGabriel has it absolutely right. Obama's priority is to hold PA and MI and fight to win OH for the simple reason that McCain probably cannot win the presidency unless he takes two of these. Obama is going to win the Kerry states plus IA and NM which gives him a total of 264. If he does this, he then has multiple avenues to victory. If he wins OH, it is over. If he wins CO, it is over. If he wins VA it is over. If he wins IN, it is over. I can go on.
The point is that while Obama could win other states such as IN, MO, NV and FL (not to mention lesser possibilities such as AK, ND, MT and GA), his absolute priority is to secure the PA, MI, OH triangle. With those states in the bag, he can spend the rest of his money in a bunch of other states to make sure McCain has to do the same.
I see this is a reversal of 2004 where Kerry put all his eggs in the OH/FL basket and came up short. This time the Dems are playing offense and the Evil Empire are on defence praying for a miracle in PA or MI. I like that.
My predictions about Florida are already coming to pass. It is NOT a swing state and Obama should largely ignore it. The one and only Southern state the Obama camp should focus on is Virginia (and even then, that's only because of the influx of Northeasterners and Midwesterners to Fairfax County).
Other than that, "It's The WEST, Stupid!!"
Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Montana, Alaska, and North Dakota. Significant swing votes to be mined there. Oh sure, I hear you all saying "but SG, Florida is much closer than MT or ND". Yes, fair enough, but I look at trends moreso than polling performance. Florida is stagnant at +5 for McCain, and won't change. The aforementioned Western states, on the other hand, are trending Democratic and ripe for the picking. Throw in Indiana, an Iowa take-back, and all the Kerry states, and you've got the makings of a big Obama victory.
I strongly recommend a Western strategy this election for the Democrats - I think it would pay big dividends.
Obama, Go West young man!
As for Ohio...color me unconvinced.
I suspect that Democrats are going to be sorely disappointed there (again) in 2008. Large parts of the state are just far too backward for Obama to be victorious. Whereas Michigan draws on the natural Upper Midwestern progressiveness and Pennsylvania sits in the orbit of east-coast cosmopolitanism, Ohio has neither of these moderating influences.
Hopefully though, it won't matter, as Obama racks up victories in Virginia and Western states.
On the subject of Ohio, could anyone assess the risk of a repetition of the pictures of long queues in heavily Democratic inner-city precincts we saw in 2004? Is there a chance that the current Democratic administration can do better, and will this actually be able to influence the result?
Also, do you see any other state where the administration of elections might influence the results?
I have just had a look at that latest Florida poll.
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/florida/election_2008_florida_presidential_election
At first sight it apears Obama is winning. 7% behind but an improvment on last weeks 8% behind.
The devil is in the detail. Positions are firming and there are 3% less dont knows. Obama is getting locked into a loosing position.
The reason is a surprise. Most Florida voters back drilling. I guess that when it comes to the crunch they prefer cars to beaches!
Sadly I am not surprised. By oposing drilling Obama is loosing the argument over the Economy, and "Its the Economy stupid". In the end if the Voters don't trust Obama with the Economy he won't be President.
So if I believe in drilling why am I an Obama supporter?
I like to think of myself as a realist. I know that in the end every last drop of oil is going to be drilled, pumped and used. It is a battle already lost.
But there is a battle that can be won. We have the choice of ether investing properly in the transition to alternatives, or waving a green flag & offering prizes for a better car battery.
Oil is only going to get more expensive. It is push hard for green now or end up with an economy so devastated that the resorces are just not available later.
I desperatly hope that Obama will soften his stand on drilling. Half a cake is better than none & offshore drilling could end up paying for a lot of wind turbines.
@Blame:
You're right that positions seems to be firming. Obama has gone from 41% unfavorables to 53% in just one week (and from 29% Very Unfavorable to 40%). On the other hand, McCains favorables do not rise much. And his current support, 48%, is actually lower than some of his spring results.
Also, as some comments in the "Internal Polls" thread have pointed out, there are reasons to be sceptical about Rasmussens offshore drilling questions. And in the end, I would be surprised if the issue turns out to be the major factor in deciding the Florida election.
I think that Cugel has a point about the confederate states. However, I am with Jonathan. This is a party building opportunity.
If Obama increases African American turn out but generates a back lash among underprivileged and elderly whites, we will be in a strong position in 2012.
By then the fear will have abated. People will come back while African American participation will remain at high levels.
That's what happened with the Catholic vote in 1932, for example. They had been brought into the Democratic fold by Al Smith's campaign.
Compared to Smith, Obama is a much stronger candidate, of course, but I do suspect that there might be a less pronounced Smith effect this year.
If that is true, the Carolinas and Georgia will be quite competitive in 2012 and most importantly for state office elections.
That's critical because redistricting is coming up in the wake of the 2010 census. Therefore, Obama ought to take the long view and cultivate Southern states even if we cannot win there right now.
I think the original post and the comments strongly suggest it's time for an update of critical analysis of the swing "voters".
1. Show us an updated regression model with the coefficients.
2. Discount the general drift toward Obama and focus in on what groups of people are shifting from McCain or undecided to Obama WHERE it actually matters. That Mormons or "American/United States Ancestry Responders" are generally shifting to Obama is really of little impact because Obama still ain't going to win UTAH, Kentucky, Tennessee, the South. But IF Catholics (e.g.) aren't drifting as much toward Obama (the change in the regression coefficients over time should tell us the answer), then this will make a big difference in November, if the race tightens as we should all expect it will. Moreover, this will provide information on whether subtle and nuanced changes/fine tunes to the "language" of the message and/or or where to make ad buys (small local "ethnic" press) and/or what kinds of mid-size and smaller cities, suburbs, and counties Obama should visit (i.e. high catholic, Italian, Polish, and/or "catholic Irish" in BATTLEGROUND states. see "definition of must-win")
3. My own regression model is a bit different that this one in that it concentrates on the Census Ancestry responses. You can predict the "relative" Democratic strength based upon ancestry pretty well. From Republican to Democrat
"American/US", English, German, French, Irish, Italian, Polish, non-Cuban Hispanic, Afr. Amer.
It's almost always going to be in this order - everywhere: The difference between whether a Congressional District votes for a Democrat for House but a Republican for President, is not in the change of order but that at some point on the continuum between Italian and Polish you start seeing the majority tip one way or another. E.g. if I see that ~52% of Polish and and ~51 of Italian of the national aggregate generic vote are going for the Republican candidate then you can pretty well predict that the Democrat isn't going to win.
Or religious scale, you see a persistent ordering: Mormon, Protestant, Catholic, Jewish, non-affiliated, agnostic, atheist.
Of course, these are generalities and "tendencies" but that is what you use in statistical analysis.
It is because Ancestry and Religion are not uniformly or randomly distributed across the states that you can create models.
4. The McCain states are the McCain states, the Obama states are the Obama states. There are about 18-20 states which form the battleground. It will not be generic drifts toward the likely winner that make the difference in a close election but reaching out to those swing voter blocks which are not some "generic working class whites" or "worker class women" or "women". That is a mistake that leads down the idea that winning over "American Ancestry" or WASPs is the key for Obama. They are really not "swing" voters, in the sense that in states that matter (the battleground for this election) that group will "swing" from < 50% to > 50%. The same is true for "women" as some kind of group.
The election is change vs. status quo, the is an important psychological bias in decision making that is an opportunity and a challenge for Obama.
Obama might thing of individuals as complex musical "chords". In answering the question "who am I and who are we", the chords of who we are involve notes that resound from neighborhood, ancestry, family, state, education, age, class, etc.
Sometimes, when playing the riffs that make up political stump speeches, you need to understand that while C6 and Amin7 are the same thing but how you think about them may change how you solo over them. A riff that might have worked for Bill Clinton in Arkansas is not the riff that Obama needs to use in Toledo or Pittsburgh or Scranton. This is important because Arkansas is not in play for Obama but OH is.
Ancestry and Religion are subtle and nuanced things. They can't be used like a ax to split some wood, they have to be used like a instrument in the context of complex improvisational song.
Descending from soapbox.
Gris, PUMA is the name of a group of bitter Clinton supporters who intend to vote for McCain, formed after Obama won the nomination. They generally believe Obama ran a sexist campaign against Clinton and that he had the nomination handed to him by party insiders. They really are better characterized as Obama haters than Clinton supporters. PUMA is an acronym for Party Unity, My Ass.
A few days ago, there was some consternation in the comment section over a Virginia poll that SUSA released that showed Obama with "only" 74% of the African-American vote. Most dismissed it as a statistical fluke.
PPP just released a North Carolina poll and it shows--75% of the African-American vote going for Obama. Actually, their previous NC poll, taken at the end of May, showed only 72% African-American support in NC. And a recent PPP in Virginia? AA support for Obama is 67%.
While their are plenty of other recent polls from the region that show higher AA support for Obama, I don't think we can reject the lower support numbers out of hand. There may be something in methodology that's contributing to the spread (determining "likely voters" or something like that).
Bottom line: the derision that greeted the SUSA Virginia poll does not appear to be deserved. They have plenty of company.
@another mike
Thnx!
PPP has Obama ahead in Florida 46-44. Like I said above, it is way too early to be throwing in the towel in Florida.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Florida701.pdf
Interestingly, the poll shows Obama ahead among men voters and behind among women.
The party ID numbers are Dem 42% Rep 42%. Perhaps Nate can comment as to whether that is realistic or underestimates the Dem vote.
3 of the last 5 polls in Florida show Obama with leads from 2-5 points. The two that don't show him with a lead are both from Rasmussen (6/18 and 6/26). Interesting.
"I wonder if the media will mention nearer the election that a tie is certainly possible"
I think this will be mentioned far, far more often than the actual likelihood of it happening would merit.
The press will always overplay the most chaotic possible outcome of anything. Bank on it.
Public Policy Polling just released numbers for Florida - 46/44 Obama.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Florida701.pdf
Nate,
To what extent do you think that land-line only surveys introduce sampling bias into the data? Do you know if polling firms adjust data for demographic differences in households who are cell only?
Clearly, younger people are more likely to not have land-line telephones:
"Age is another factor in landline abandonment, as 18-24 and 25-29 year-olds were far more likely to go wireless (31 and 34.5 percent, respectively) than adults aged 30-44 (15.5 percent), 45-64 (8 percent), and 65 or older (2.2). Adults living in poverty (27.4 percent) were more likely to live in a household with wireless telephones than those with higher income."
http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20080514-more-americans-snipping-landlines-in-favor-of-cell-phones.html
If, as we seem to be seeing, there is a large demographic disparity between Obama supporters and McCain supporters, do you think land line only surveys are biased towards McCain?
Interested in your thoughts...
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