A little more than two months ago, I ran through a scenario that predicted what might happen if half of the Hillary Clinton Democrats who said they were going to vote for John McCain instead gravitated back to Barack Obama. The prediction was that the so-called "unity bounce" would be worth 4-5 points to Obama in the popular vote, bringing him northward of 320 electoral votes and making him roughly a 3 to 1 favorite to win the election.
That is almost exactly where we have Barack Obama's numbers after a series of new polls from Quinnipiac. In Pennsylvania, Obama leads by 12 points -- up from 6 last month. His Ohio lead is 6 points -- he had trailed McCain by 4 points before. And then there is Florida, where Quinnipiac has Obama ahead by 4 points. Barack Obama has never before led a Florida poll -- not against John McCain, nor against Hillary Clinton -- so this is something of a watershed moment.
If Florida is in play, then John McCain's defense is completely broken; it was the one traditional swing state that always had looked off-limits to Obama. More frustratingly for McCain, he had spent the better part of three days in Florida earlier this month, hoping to raise doubts about Obama among Jewish voters. Although Quinnipiac does not break out the Jewish vote, Obama holds a 61-31 lead in Southeast Florida, where most of the state's Jewish population is concentrated.
Obama's surprisingly strong lead in Ohio isn't any better news for McCain. As recently as a week ago, McCain's strategy looked pretty simple: target Ohio and Michigan, and hope to win one if not both. But now, Ohio looks tough for him, and even if McCain can steal Michigan, Obama has so many other places he can pick up electoral votes -- Virginia, the Mountain West, Iowa, Missouri and now possibly Florida -- that McCain still might have trouble winning a close election.
Obama's lead nationally is still relatively small -- we have it at somewhere between 4 and 5 points -- but looks to be an unusually robust one in terms of the Electoral College. Rick Davis can probably give these numbers about another week or two to settle down before he has to start thinking about some fundamental changes in his candidate's messaging.
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
Today's Polls, 6/18
-- Nate Silver at 7:35 AM
Labels: florida, ohio, pennsylvania, today's polls
87 comments
Why isn't the EV graph a bell curve anymore? Your recent two big changes have made me very nervous. It gave Obama a huge, sudden boost and it seems to have destroyed the curve. I'm having trouble believing the rosiness.
It's still a bell curve. It's just that it's shifted considerably to the right on the graph, as Obama's now projected to get more electoral votes than he was before.
It can't be a perfect bellcurve unless it's virtually centered.
It's now a lopsided bellcurve - which is what it SHOULD look like if you believe Obama has a strong advantage.
If you look at the numbers, it's about 50% on each side of the peak - just that the peak is now around 360-370.
Obama will win in a landslide in November.
The Obama army is actually in the states for registered new voters in the swing states.
Easy win.
I can see the peak has shifted. But I'm also looking at a big bump around 450-510 and a big deficit around 90-150.
Maybe this is just how the combinatorics of how the EVs can add up, though.
Here's the thing: I've been burned before. I would prefer a system that I can be happily surprised was too low over a system that I will be disappointed was too high.
Curious that more likely for McCain to lose popular vote and win electoral vote than same for Obama. Seems counterintuitive - more likely that Obama piles up high margins in safe states, say NY, but narrowly loses say MI/OH/PA/FL
I'm guessing that the big bumps are scenarios where the wheels really start falling off for the GOP; something like Obama pulling a surprise upset in Texas. That'd be a 34-EV shift and might produce some peaks to the right of the main curve.
I'm more confused by the big spike on the far right of the graph. Dunno what that's about.
Hey Anonymous, NEVER the GOP will win in PA.
Every election, the GOP hope win here...lol.
Every poll Obama has a command lead in PA.
With the new registration, PA is strong DEM.
What are the values on the y axis of the EV distribution? Take for example the spike on the far right where Obama wins absolutely everything (except Utah?) - how many simulations out of 10,000 have this result?
can Texas go blue ?
highly unlikely but...??
PA will go for Obama
A bell curve does not have to be averaged at 50% to be a bell curve. (Only artificially derived standards such as IQ have that kind of distribution) It appears to be a standard gaussian distribution, with the mean result indicating that Obama will obtain 360-390.
I wonder, if a result like this actually happened, can they call the election before California closes?
Did the Pacific states disappear from the left margin for anyone else besides me?
Sure, a Texas victory is very unlikely, but the model shows it happening 18% of the time. And the bumps on the right side of the graph seem to be pretty evenly spaced out at about a 30-EV margin. I'd bet those are scenarios where Obama wins Texas, or does something equally improbable, like cutting a wide swath through the South.
""Curious that more likely for McCain to lose popular vote and win electoral vote than same for Obama. Seems counterintuitive - more likely that Obama piles up high margins in safe states""
I agree, especially when combined with a good chance that he'll pile up larger margins among blacks in southern states, but likely not enough to win many, if any of the states themselves.
"Here's the thing: I've been burned before. I would prefer a system that I can be happily surprised was too low over a system that I will be disappointed was too high."
72-90.
"I wonder, if a result like this actually happened, can they call the election before California closes?"
That's an interesting thought. Here's the currently projected vote totals by time zone:
Eastern: Obama 194, McCain 43
Central: Obama 70, McCain 90
Mountain: Obama 14, McCain 38
Pacific: Obama 78, McCain 4
Alaska/Hawaii: Obama 4, McCain 3
Where a state occupies two time zones, I put it in the westernmost column.
If Obama performs this well (which I have to admit would be a little surprising, but it seems within the realm of possibility, given the fundamentals of the election) then yes, he's at 270 EV before we get to the west coast and California.
Du, you poor lamb! Have some faith in your guy winning!
"If Florida is in play, then John McCain's defense is completely broken..."
To extend the sports metaphor, it might be time for the Belichick solution... start videotaping the opponent's moves. (Or maybe we swing back to politics and just call it a Nixon move.)
I'll just use a video game metaphor to describe today's polls, if it's okay:
C-C-C-C-COMBO BREAKER!
Um... don't look now, but the state-by-state chart on the left is missing the "Pacific" states.
I think I can sum today's update up in two words, one of which stutters:
C-C-C-C-COMBO BREAKER!
How does one poll result prove that Obama is suddenly leading in all the swing states?
Are the results so irrefutable as to warrant changing electoral vote projections? Wouldn't it make more sense to wait until a few more polls came out before making such sweeping claims about the electoral map?