The Republicans have given every signal of wanting to make a play for Minnesota. Their convention will be held in St. Paul, and Tim Pawlenty is perhaps the odds-on favorite to become John McCain's Vice Presidential nominee. There just isn't much indication, however, that the state is liable to be competitive.
Rasmussen's newest poll in Minnesota has Barack Obama leading John McCain by 13 points. This is technically not a bounce: Obama led by 12 and 13 points in Rasmussen's April and May polls, respectively. But Minnesota also does not appear to be close enough where little things like the selection of Pawlenty as McCain's running mate would matter (I'm sitting on some research about this, but the home state advantage of a VP selection is not all that it's cracked up to be). Indeed, the entire Northwest quadrant of the country -- draw a line from the southern tip of Illinois everywhere northward and westward -- has polled extremely well for Barack Obama, both absolutely and relative to John Kerry.
Rasmussen also has polling out in North Carolina, where John McCain holds on to a slim 2-point advantage. This result is not entirely surprising, as several polling firms have shown North Carolina within the margin of error at some point in the cycle. Barack Obama has every reason to give North Carolina a try -- the Research Triangle portion of the state might go for him 3:2 or even 2:1. But at some point, he's going to want to show an actual lead in the polling there, lest it become a tease state like the Republicans have had with New Jersey.
In Oklahoma, a Research 2000 / DailyKos poll has John McCain leading by 14 points. This might actually be Obama's best result of the day, as other Oklahoma polling had shown McCain ahead by as many as 40 points. Obama won't win Oklahoma, but the internals of the survey -- which show a bare plurality of Oklahomans identifying their party ID as Democrat -- are a reminder of just how difficult the partisan landscape is for John McCain.
Finally, I wanted to announce that FiveThirtyEight will be partnering with Rasmussen Reports and providing them with our state-by-state averages for inclusion in their Balance of Power Calculations. Between that and my appearance on CNN a bit earlier (video if and when it becomes available), I'm starting out my day pretty wired.
6.13.2008
Today's Polls, 6/13
@ 10:00 AM
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31 comments
Hey Nate-
I just watched yur interview on CNN that I TiVo'ed (sorry- 8:50 AM Eastern is a little early to wake up here in Washington state). I was a little disappointed that you didn't get to talk about VA, NM,CO,NV, and NC as non-traditional swing states.
In any case, you were awesome. It sounds like you'll be on CNN periodically through the election.
Congrats on your new gigs! Well done!
Congrats, Nate, on both the CNN appearance and the Rasmussen deal!
.
...the entire Northwest quadrant of the country -- draw a line from the southern tip of Illinois everywhere northward and westward -- has polled extremely well for Barack Obama, both absolutely...
I'm looking at the map and I'm not seeing it. Granted, some of these polls are old, but Idaho? Nebraska? Wyoming? All deep red.
There's a pretty big spike in your electoral distribution chart at around 340 EV. Does this represent an especially likely combination, or is it just noise?
du,
the map Nate is referring to, I think, is this one which shows polling of an Obama/McCain race relative to results of Bush/Kerry. Obama doesn't do well in Idaho, Wyoming, or Nebraska, but he does much better than Kerry did.
Quick question on the Rasmussen deal Nate.
Will you be privy in advance as to when Rasmussen will release polls for particular states? If so, will you be able to tell us.
The most frustrating thing is not knowing whether, where and when Rasmussen, SurveyUSA and Quinnipiac in particular will release polls.
Obama doesn't do well in Idaho, Wyoming, or Nebraska, but he does much better than Kerry did.
He said "both absolutely and relative to John Kerry". I'll grant the relative, but the absolutely I don't get.
DU:
OR and WA are polling so well they are no longer swing states. I'd say that's absolutely better polling. (Especially in the case or OR).
Is anyone else pretty frustrated by the lack of polling being done for swing states?
Why so many polls for blue states like Washington or Minnesota? Or red states like Oklahoma? Yet no Ohio poll, no Nevada poll, no Missouri poll. These are the states that will be battlegrounds this year. I wish the pollsters would focus on them.
McCain will not win Michigan. HIs stance on trade, although correct, will play agsinst him.
If Obama loses NC by 5% it means he will win VA by the same amount.
OR and WA are polling so well they are no longer swing states. I'd say that's absolutely better polling.
I do not dispute this. But OR and WA are not the only states to the north and west of the southern tip of IL, as in mentioned in the post.
The pattern of bounces does agree well with the "Clinton supporters returning to the fold" thesis. MN had few of these, OK - many.
Actually, Rasmussen had Obama up by 14 in April and 15 in May in MN, so today's 13-point margin is no improvement. Clinton was so unpopular in MN, her departure makes no difference. I don't think Pawlenty can add more than 5 points in MN.
The McCain forces are hoping Obama makes a big play for Southern states that look tantalizing so it diverts resources on a lost cause (unless Webb is added to get Virginia).
It would be worth it for Obama to make a play for the South, as long as every $1 he spends forces McCain to spend at least $.50 in defense.
North Carolina is absolutely worth investing in (if only to make McCain play defense).
Beyond that - the poll may not capture all the new registrations among the black and youth populations.
Pawlenty was first elected with 44% of the vote, with the other 56% going to the Democrat, a former Democratic congressman (Tim Penny), and the left-wing Green Party.
Once Minnesota had 4 years to get to know Pawlenty, he won reelection by a mere 1 point, 46 to 45, with third parties taking the rest.
He is simply not popular in Minnesota, and would add nothing to the ticket.
Also as a convert from Lutheranism to a right-wing megachruch, he disrespected the largest religious group in the state and in the upper midwest region.
I saw him on a Sunday morning showing contra Tim Kaine. Neither were very good on TV, but Pawlenty was worse. He strongly reminded me of Dan Quayle with his overgroomed deer-in-headlights look.
Congrats on Rasmussen. Brings up the question: when are national polls coming in? My biased eyes read that thread, and saw a lot of support for your idea of a national fudge factor, or a regression fudge factor (advantage is it weighs more where polls are older), or even a party-id fudge (though you'd have to do some gourmet number cooking to get the total party ID by state to match up to the national party ID for each national poll, so that the total fudge came out right).
Why so many polls for blue states like Washington or Minnesota? Or red states like Oklahoma? Yet no Ohio poll, no Nevada poll, no Missouri poll. These are the states that will be battlegrounds this year. I wish the pollsters would focus on them.
I also wish there were more polling in other states. But we have to keep in mind that the polling organizations are doing their polling for their (paying) clients (typically, for media organizations), and that's where the clients have seemed to want to go til now. Also it's likely that the there are multiple clients in many of these surveys, so the horserace election questions sometimes just get tagged onto a larger survey instrument sponsored by the clients for other purposes (e.g., marketing, policy analysis, etc.).
There certainly must be a lot more polling going on for the campaigns and the parties; we just don't see much of that.
DU: the absolutely comes from the fact that Washington, Oregon, Minnesota, and Iowa have 35 electoral votes while the dakotas, Nebraska, Montana, Wyoming, and Idaho have only 21.
Over 3 times as many people live in the blue states in that fraction of the country than in the red states.
Oh, OK. That's not at all clear from the word "polled" in that sentence, but I can see what it means now. Maybe the NW has "performed" better for Obama than for either McCain or Kerry.
Pawlenty isn't exactly well-liked here. He polls well enough, but that's really just how we say "meh" about people in Minnesota.
The moderates and left despise him, and the right is mostly mad at him because he's bad at appearing to cut taxes ("Lets call them fees!").
If he couldn't deliver the Republican primary to McCain after non-stop campaigning for months, he's not going to do anything in the general.
A couple of comments on Obama's strength in the West:
Obama destroyed Clinton throughout the west and is polling well against McCain relative to party baselines.
Obama does very well in the West for some complex reasons but my hunch is that his ethnicity has the greatest net benefit there. Why? African-Americans in the West, while few, are more integrated. The West probably has the lowest overall level of ethnic tensions of anywhere in the country. So Obama does well in the Dakotas, Nebraska (especially Omaha), Colorado (which is becoming Eastern California culturally), Montana (which is 5 years behind Colorado's trends, Bosman is very progressive), Hispanic New Mexico, and Nevada.
Secondly, the West is Greener than the rest of the country.
Third, there is no recession in the West outside of Las Vegas. Inflation, energy and the Iraq war are critical. Housing prices have dipped a little but nothing like the coasts. Immigration is also in play but with complex implications that tend to wash in McCain v Obama.
If you consider the Research Triangle to be Wake, Durham, and Orange counties (home to Raleigh, Durham, and Chapel Hill respectively), Kerry won 55.25% of the vote in 2004. That translated into a 54,634 vote advantage, while he lost the state by about 435,000 votes. Those three counties accounted for about 14.9% of the statewide vote.
Is winning 3:2 here reasonable? Absolutely. That means roughly doubling Kerry's margin region-wide. Wake has more than twice as many voters as the other two counties combined, and Bush won narrowly in 2004. A small percentage swing could turn a 7500-vote deficit into a 20,000 vote advantage, and that would probably do the trick.
Kerry won better than 2:1 in Durham and Orange, but I will be surprised if Obama is not better than 3:1. Durham has two universities, the highest percentage of African-Americans of any urban NC county, and a predominantly liberal white community. Orange is almost entirely the UNC-Chapel Hill community.
A 2:1 advantage is much tougher. That would mean in the neighborhood of a 200,000 vote margin. That is about the absolute max on total votes for Durham and Orange combined. Even if Obama takes 75% in those counties, he would need a 100,000 vote margin in Wake. That does not happen in competitive statewide races.
Would either of these be enough? The numbers at 2:1 in RTP make up nearly half of Kerry's deficit in less than a sixth of the population. But at 3:2, the proportion of the deficit made up in this region is substantially less than the proportion of the statewide vote in these three counties.
Those counties are growing faster than the state as a whole, so it is reasonable to expect a slight increase in their percentage of the statewide vote. This is without factoring in any turnout issues specific to this election, such as young people showing up in greater numbers (The Triangle is much younger than the rest of the state.) It's probable that Wake, Durham, and Orange counties will provide very close to a sixth of the statewide vote. To have a real shot at winning, a Democrat needs a 50,000+ vote margin in Wake. This is not like the biggest counties in some states, which go overwhelmingly Democrat. By far the two largest counties in North Carolina, Wake and Mecklenburg (Charlotte) are very similar in size and both tend to produce fairly small Democratic margins in an evenly fought statewide race.
I've read the FAQs, and based on those I think there is a conflict between "Must-Win" and "Scenario Analysis." Must-Win: winner wins Ohio 83.8% according to today's data. Scenari: Obama loses Ohio/wins election 21% and McCain 11% - which adds up to 33%, that means the winner wins Ohio only 67%. There's an inconsistency here . . .
Oklahoma is loaded is with conservative Democrats so that party ID thing isn't that relevant. 18% of Democrats in 2004 voted for the very conservative Tom Coburn over the moderately-conservative Brad Carson. That same election, 32% of Oklahoma Democrats voted for George W. Bush. Only 8% of Oklahoma Republicans voted for Carson and only 4% voted for Kerry.
Gavin said...
There's a pretty big spike in your electoral distribution chart at around 340 EV. Does this represent an especially likely combination, or is it just noise?
I'm looking at that spike too - what does the map look like for this total?
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酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
菲
梵,
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