In Michigan, Rasmussen shows Barack Obama with a 45-42 lead over John McCain. In Rasmussen's Michigan poll from last month, Obama had trailed by one point. In New York, Quinnipiac has Barack Obama ahead by 14 points. While this result is not inherently all that surprising, it does represent a 6-point improvement from Quinnipiac's prior poll of the state.
There have now been six polls that were in the field since the Democratic primaries were concluded, and for which we have a previous trendline against which to compare. Barack Obama has gained ground in all six of those polls; his average bounce has been about 5 points.
GA Rasmussen 5/6 -14 Rasmussen 6/4 -10
NJ Rasmussen 3/27 -1 Rasmussen 6/4 +9
WI Rasmussen 5/5 -4 Rasmussen 6/5 +2
NY Quinnipiac 4/15 +8 Quinnipiac 6/6 +14
WA SurveyUSA 5/17 +16 SurveyUSA 6/8 +17
MI Rasmussen 5/7 -1 Rasmussen 6/9 +3
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AVG +0.7 +5.8
49 comments
Hello, unity bounce!
I'm waiting for the post-bounce polls...
I expect Obama to maintain leads in CO, PA, WI, MN, NM but Id like to see how Ohio and Michigan play out in the next few weeks... particularly if Obamas current lead in Michigan fails to grow.
Nate, did you ever decide what to do with national polls? They would be a valuable addition.
Obama is leading in MI even though he only has support from 74% of Democrats. I wonder how many are still annoyed by the primary fallout, and if they will eventually support Obama.
I think the Michigan lead will continue to grow. Because of the whole primary situation there, he hasn't had the same kind of presence in Michigan as everywhere else (excluding Florida), so a lead of any kind is a good sign at this stage. I am really not too worried about Obama's chances in Michigan, unless McCain picks Romney as veep, in which case all bets are off.
Whatever happened to the promised front page shout out for Isabel for the "homework assignment"?
Nate, please do bring back the cartogram!
I actually think MI will continue to fluctuate until Obama actually begins some solid campaigning there. Once people actually get out to see him, it'll most likely stay in the blue column all the way until November, even if it's weak blue.
Oh and looks like Rasmus hit the nail on the head with the new Michigan percentages - 48.5% . Nice prediction :).
The Michigan numbers will continue to improve. They never experienced the kind of advertising saturation that the rest of the country did and that's the only reason it looks close.
In order for Obama to win the electoral college, he just needs to pick Mark Warner as his VP. That way, he can flip Virginia blue. Virginia and Iowa and the Kerry states gets him to 270!
The only Kerry states in danger are Michigan and New Hampshire but I have no doubt that Obama will win both.
He doesn't need Florida or Ohio. He just needs Virginia.
Is there any way to model pre and post nomination polls? (e.g. adding a variable in your regression which has a value of 0 if the poll was conducted before June 3rd and 1 if it was conducted after)
National polls may come in handy too.
I just noticed we finally got a popular vote lead! Woohoo!
@ Anonymous 13:07
Wasn't there something here recently that VP candidates rarely carry (or help much) in their home states?
Not sure if this is a 'unity bounce' or a 'disassociation with Jeremiah Wright bounce.' In New York, it's probably a unity bounce since that's Sen. Clinton's state. But some of the early May polls still include residual opinions on Jeremiah Wright, which has faded since then. I'd like to see comparisons from last week in a state to a poll this week or next to assess if there is a unity bounce.
5% is about right, it feels right when considering the Tracking Polls which are showing 6-8% up for Obama. I think we're in that 6-8% range and the key will be if Obama is able to hold that lead since presumably it's derived from Unity amongst Democrats.
I do believe the lead is capable of growing into September as Obama further unifies democrats and makes a stronger case to Independents.
I think the Michigan lead will definitely continue to grow. He's just getting started there. If Obama can win Michigan / Ohio / Pennsylvania then I don't really see how McCain has much of a chance. And I think he will.
Obama has a long way to go up in the polls and McCain has a long way to fall in the polls.
Nate, is there any chance that arizona is really a toss-up state? That's kinda odd considering McCain has been representing AZ for soo long or is it just a head-fake (kinda like obama claiming a 50 state strategy) in trying to get Obama to spend in AZ
Lol @ the constant McCain advertisement on this page.
Wasting money much?
Thank you for removing the purple stain from Washington. I could raise any amount of money here in the Evergreen State to bet against any and all that think Mc Cain could possibly win here. It's not just our reliably blue nature, there is antipathy about McCain's scuttling of the Boeing contract among our hard working white folks. Furthermore, our more than a few green voters can spot an environmental phony, (goose egg from the League of Conservation voters for 2007).
You really should start factoring in national numbers. It's clear that your turnout projections underestimate Obama's strength, seeing as how he's leading by 4-6 points right now nationally and you have him up by 0.2%. How are you projecting turnout?
The full effects of the "unity bounce" won't be visible until we get new Rasmussen results for OH, VA, and NV, and new SUSA for Michigan. Once we have those, Obama will be pretty stable in the mid-60% range, where I expect he will stay until/unless the dynamics of the race change somehow.
Mac Z,
This site is about trying to determine where Obama stands in specific states, and how he is projected to do in the electoral college.
Also, as new polls are released for every state, his lead will fall in line with what the national polls are saying.
Gavin: "Wasn't there something here recently that VP candidates rarely carry (or help much) in their home states?"
They don't much, unless the VP is extremely popular and/or respected in his home state/region, like Johnson in '60.
One could make an argument that Mondale helped Carter keep MN in '76 and '80, but MN probably would have gone Dem anyway.
There might be a stronger argument that Clinton/Gore together helped swing Appalachia and parts of the South.
It does seem to have more impact on Democratic nominees then Republicans, though it's still iffy.
That said, Warner or Webb probably could help ensure VA swings Dem this year, given that it's already close to the edge. Might even help with WV & NC too.
In a place like Kansas, though, where it's still strongly R, Sebellius probably wouldn't help much.
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Rasmussen is a 500LV poll. What's the LV model they're using, and have they discussed any potential revisions to it?
Hi Nate,
Love your blog.
I was wondering if anyone (outside of the campaigns) has done any analysis of Obama's 50 state strategy in the following sense. I am interested i