In Michigan, Rasmussen shows Barack Obama with a 45-42 lead over John McCain. In Rasmussen's Michigan poll from last month, Obama had trailed by one point. In New York, Quinnipiac has Barack Obama ahead by 14 points. While this result is not inherently all that surprising, it does represent a 6-point improvement from Quinnipiac's prior poll of the state.
There have now been six polls that were in the field since the Democratic primaries were concluded, and for which we have a previous trendline against which to compare. Barack Obama has gained ground in all six of those polls; his average bounce has been about 5 points.
GA Rasmussen 5/6 -14 Rasmussen 6/4 -10
NJ Rasmussen 3/27 -1 Rasmussen 6/4 +9
WI Rasmussen 5/5 -4 Rasmussen 6/5 +2
NY Quinnipiac 4/15 +8 Quinnipiac 6/6 +14
WA SurveyUSA 5/17 +16 SurveyUSA 6/8 +17
MI Rasmussen 5/7 -1 Rasmussen 6/9 +3
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AVG +0.7 +5.8
52 comments
Hello, unity bounce!
I'm waiting for the post-bounce polls...
I expect Obama to maintain leads in CO, PA, WI, MN, NM but Id like to see how Ohio and Michigan play out in the next few weeks... particularly if Obamas current lead in Michigan fails to grow.
Nate, did you ever decide what to do with national polls? They would be a valuable addition.
Obama is leading in MI even though he only has support from 74% of Democrats. I wonder how many are still annoyed by the primary fallout, and if they will eventually support Obama.
I think the Michigan lead will continue to grow. Because of the whole primary situation there, he hasn't had the same kind of presence in Michigan as everywhere else (excluding Florida), so a lead of any kind is a good sign at this stage. I am really not too worried about Obama's chances in Michigan, unless McCain picks Romney as veep, in which case all bets are off.
Whatever happened to the promised front page shout out for Isabel for the "homework assignment"?
Nate, please do bring back the cartogram!
I actually think MI will continue to fluctuate until Obama actually begins some solid campaigning there. Once people actually get out to see him, it'll most likely stay in the blue column all the way until November, even if it's weak blue.
Oh and looks like Rasmus hit the nail on the head with the new Michigan percentages - 48.5% . Nice prediction :).
The Michigan numbers will continue to improve. They never experienced the kind of advertising saturation that the rest of the country did and that's the only reason it looks close.
In order for Obama to win the electoral college, he just needs to pick Mark Warner as his VP. That way, he can flip Virginia blue. Virginia and Iowa and the Kerry states gets him to 270!
The only Kerry states in danger are Michigan and New Hampshire but I have no doubt that Obama will win both.
He doesn't need Florida or Ohio. He just needs Virginia.
Is there any way to model pre and post nomination polls? (e.g. adding a variable in your regression which has a value of 0 if the poll was conducted before June 3rd and 1 if it was conducted after)
National polls may come in handy too.
I just noticed we finally got a popular vote lead! Woohoo!
@ Anonymous 13:07
Wasn't there something here recently that VP candidates rarely carry (or help much) in their home states?
Not sure if this is a 'unity bounce' or a 'disassociation with Jeremiah Wright bounce.' In New York, it's probably a unity bounce since that's Sen. Clinton's state. But some of the early May polls still include residual opinions on Jeremiah Wright, which has faded since then. I'd like to see comparisons from last week in a state to a poll this week or next to assess if there is a unity bounce.
5% is about right, it feels right when considering the Tracking Polls which are showing 6-8% up for Obama. I think we're in that 6-8% range and the key will be if Obama is able to hold that lead since presumably it's derived from Unity amongst Democrats.
I do believe the lead is capable of growing into September as Obama further unifies democrats and makes a stronger case to Independents.
I think the Michigan lead will definitely continue to grow. He's just getting started there. If Obama can win Michigan / Ohio / Pennsylvania then I don't really see how McCain has much of a chance. And I think he will.
Obama has a long way to go up in the polls and McCain has a long way to fall in the polls.
Nate, is there any chance that arizona is really a toss-up state? That's kinda odd considering McCain has been representing AZ for soo long or is it just a head-fake (kinda like obama claiming a 50 state strategy) in trying to get Obama to spend in AZ
Lol @ the constant McCain advertisement on this page.
Wasting money much?
Thank you for removing the purple stain from Washington. I could raise any amount of money here in the Evergreen State to bet against any and all that think Mc Cain could possibly win here. It's not just our reliably blue nature, there is antipathy about McCain's scuttling of the Boeing contract among our hard working white folks. Furthermore, our more than a few green voters can spot an environmental phony, (goose egg from the League of Conservation voters for 2007).
You really should start factoring in national numbers. It's clear that your turnout projections underestimate Obama's strength, seeing as how he's leading by 4-6 points right now nationally and you have him up by 0.2%. How are you projecting turnout?
The full effects of the "unity bounce" won't be visible until we get new Rasmussen results for OH, VA, and NV, and new SUSA for Michigan. Once we have those, Obama will be pretty stable in the mid-60% range, where I expect he will stay until/unless the dynamics of the race change somehow.
Mac Z,
This site is about trying to determine where Obama stands in specific states, and how he is projected to do in the electoral college.
Also, as new polls are released for every state, his lead will fall in line with what the national polls are saying.
Gavin: "Wasn't there something here recently that VP candidates rarely carry (or help much) in their home states?"
They don't much, unless the VP is extremely popular and/or respected in his home state/region, like Johnson in '60.
One could make an argument that Mondale helped Carter keep MN in '76 and '80, but MN probably would have gone Dem anyway.
There might be a stronger argument that Clinton/Gore together helped swing Appalachia and parts of the South.
It does seem to have more impact on Democratic nominees then Republicans, though it's still iffy.
That said, Warner or Webb probably could help ensure VA swings Dem this year, given that it's already close to the edge. Might even help with WV & NC too.
In a place like Kansas, though, where it's still strongly R, Sebellius probably wouldn't help much.
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Rasmussen is a 500LV poll. What's the LV model they're using, and have they discussed any potential revisions to it?
Hi Nate,
Love your blog.
I was wondering if anyone (outside of the campaigns) has done any analysis of Obama's 50 state strategy in the following sense. I am interested in how it would affect the predictions of your model. For example, I understand that there are 600,000 African Americans in Georgia who are not registered to vote, which, I believe is about 10% of the number of voters in Georgia in 2004 Bush vs Kerry. If Obama were to be (has been?) very successful in registering these individuals, would that change the results of your model in a substantial or just marginal way? Is this already incorporated in the voter turnout models of the pollsters?
Nate you're getting some major shout outs on Kos right now!
I feel SO much better now that the popular vote isn't 50/50. For some reason that really offended me.
As a Michigander myself, I am confident that Obama will win our 17 electoral votes. Our large African-American and Arab populations will come out in droves for Barack, and many in the suburbs will be voting Democratic for the first time in many years. Some Michiganders are understandably pissed at the state party, but those 'disaffected voters' won't hold it against Obama.
Ignore the national numbers and focus only on states. Just ask Giuliani(15pt) and Hillary (30 pt) with leads before Iowa turned out ? Typically, Democratic candidates "waste" votes in states such as CA, NY, & IL by running up higher margins (reflected in the national numbers) but not translating into an EV advantage. The general rule fo thumb isthat a Dem. has to run about 2% higher in the national race to be even to the Repub.
As a result, when you factor the 2% handicap and the margin of error + undecideds (so called Keith number from Olbermann) you'll find that the race is tied. That's why the state polls are more meaningful.
This is fine. Remember since March 1st for three months Obama has had Hillary & Bill Clinton, John McCain, and the RNC and all Republicans singularly after him. ANd he's survived. Now Obama has the entire party behind him to be able to volley off the McCain attacks. And now, after three months, McCain is finally in the defensive. The key dynamic to have feared in the primaries was how strong did McCain run up the numbers, amass $$$, and build his organization while Obama had to fight off Hillary.
Answer -- not enough.
An an avid Arab American Obama supporter I do feel that he should have been a bit careful about his Jerusalem remarks since they even go beyond the position of Bush & Co.
No reason that national polls can't have an effect on on the 538 popular vote count right?
"Ignore the national numbers and focus only on states. Just ask Giuliani(15pt) and Hillary (30 pt) with leads before Iowa turned out ? Typically, Democratic candidates "waste" votes in states such as CA, NY, & IL by running up higher margins (reflected in the national numbers) but not translating into an EV advantage. The general rule fo thumb isthat a Dem. has to run about 2% higher in the national race to be even to the Repub."
Is there any evidence of this? In 2000, Gore did better nationally than with the Electoral College, but in 2004, Kerry was only a few thousands votes away in Ohio from winning the election, despite losing by over 3 million in the popular vote. And this very site says there's a slightly better chance at McCain winning the popular vote and losing the electoral college.
The Dems may run up votes in California, New York, and New England, but the GOP still runs up votes in the South and Midwest. These seems to more or less cancel each other out.
It appears that Michigan now is more must-win than Pennsylvania but this isn't reflected in the scenarios. You should make it so that the regression selects which states are important for the scenarios rather than doing it by hand.
What I mean is the scenarios should instead include:
...
loses OH, wins
loses OH/MI, wins
loses OH/MI/PA, wins
...
Rasmussen now has Obama up 53-35 in Washington (+18), a 7-point bounce compared to the previous Rasmussen poll. The Rasmussen trend is Obama -1 (2/29), +5 (3/27), +11 (5/12), and now +18. The last three polls in the state are Obama +18, +17, +16. And yet, this is a swing state according to McCain.
Anonymous: "It appears that Michigan now is more must-win than Pennsylvania but this isn't reflected in the scenarios."
That's because, whatever our feeling that PA is very likely to go Dem, it's still a swing state in Nate's simulations. Look at the win percentages (as of 6pm, 6/11/08):
PA 68% O (21)
CO 67% O (09)
MO 66% M (11)
WI 66% O (10)
VA 63% M (13)
NM 62% O (05)
NH 55% M (04)
NV 52% M (05)
MI 51% M (17)
OH 51% M (20)
There isn't a good way to separate PA as less important while it's still closely bunched up with so many other swing states. PA's 21 EV are going to dominate in the swing states, probably until it reaches something like a >75% win percentage.
I kind of agree with your point. Personally, I think OH/MI/VA is the swing state triptych to watch for the general. But the regressions aren't saying that yet, and it looks like Nate's going by the numbers here - so PA still ranks as a heavy must win.
Which, by the way, is true - MI isn't that influential unless you already have PA locked down. MI is just the one we're worrying about more because it's so close.
.
"Ignore the national numbers and focus only on states. Just ask Giuliani(15pt) and Hillary (30 pt) with leads before Iowa turned out ? Typically, Democratic candidates "waste" votes in states such as CA, NY, & IL by running up higher margins (reflected in the national numbers) but not translating into an EV advantage. The general rule fo thumb isthat a Dem. has to run about 2% higher in the national race to be even to the Repub."
But Giuliani and Clinton were running in primaries, where the races are staggered, and generate momentum for the winner of each race. In the general, sure, the electoral college is what matters, but you may not always have a lot of recent state-level polling data.
Using national polls not only gives you more data - but it gives you more data, taken within a narrow period of time. One poll might be an outlier - but if 5 polls say something, that is less likely (unless they have flawed methodology).
So say there is an October surprise a week before the election (McCain has herpes). SurveyUSA manages to get some state-level polls in at the last second - the only polls to account for the October surprise, and find that the herpes finding has a 2 point downward impact, except in Michigan, where McCain actually goes up 1 point.
Five national polls are taken at the same time, all show a 3 point drop in McCain's support. How much faith would you put in that SUSA poll of Michigan?
My comments on Michigan versus Pennsylvania weren't meant to say anything meaningful about Pennsylvania or Michigan in general, just meant to point out that there is now an incongruence between the ordering of the must-win states and the scenarios in which the top must-win states are lost while the whole election is won.
Pennsylvania, Ohioh, and Michigan are all swing states and there's no reason to separate them from anything. In fact, setting Ohio, then Pennsylvania, then Michigan as the states which lost are interesting scenarios, in that order, in fact is separating them. But, there is a good way to say that Michigan is more interesting to lose in this run of the regression, and that's by noting that it rates significantly higher on the must-win metric (over 2% while all of the 51 contests lie between 40% and 90%, meaning that the average difference between consecuitive states is less than 1% and so this represents over twice the average differential between similar states).
Sarah, don't worry too much about the Jerusalem remarks. Everyone, including Bush, says the same thing during the campaign but no one ever follows it.
I think Obama will continue to pull away in Michigan. I think McCain's economic message of "you're on your own" isn't really going to resonate in that state!
Ohio is a weird state, but I think it's probably somewhat similar to Michigan as far as the economic message.
This is good news...Now if Obama can withstand the attack machine and put some attacks of his own out there, he's going to win this thing.
Or rather, Sarah: Obama is the first president in a long time to inherit the Middle East in such a condition that really, truly, nothing can be done.
H2H, I think that America is ready for a President with herpes.
New Polls!
Rasmussen has Obama ahead by 18 in WA.
Suffolk has Obama by 23 in MA.
The EV regression, win % and pop vote should all go up. MA and WA already safe (90%+) and should increase (MA by couple points, WA by a point or so).
Sean Fitzpatrick:
Regarding the Arab American vote in Michigan:
I'm an Arab American from Michigan, and I don't believe that Arabs here will "come out in droves for Obama". Remember, the Arab American community here is quite diverse, split between Iraqi, Lebanese, and Palestinian Christians, and Iraqi, Lebanese, and Yemeni Muslims.
Obama will probably do well among Arab American Muslims, generally, despite his recent speech to AIPAC. However, he won't do as well with Arab American Christians, many of whom are small business owners, religiously conservative, and yes, racist. Most of the small business they own are in African American communities, and there is much racial tension between the communities.
Based on the things I've been hearing, much of the Chaldean (Iraqi Christian) community here (about half of the Middle Eastern population in MI) is simply too racist to vote for a Black candidate. The younger, more educated Arab Americans and Chaldeans are more likely to vote Obama, but their parents? Not likely.
You're correct; the effect on Arab-Americans won't be nearly that of African-Americans. But I still believe that Obama, just like Kerry in 2004, will win the Arab-American vote and that turnout will be slightly higher. There are, of course, differences in any demographic. But when it gets down to it, I still think that Dearborn will be a net-plus for Obama, perhaps enough to put him over the edge. I guess we'll see on November 4. Also, not all of Arab-Americans are as you describe, particularly those in the suburbs. In the suburbs, the Arab-American vote will go to Obama by a healthy margin.
On a side note, it's good to see a fellow Michigander at 538. I look forward to more conversations in the future.
Anonymous: "My comments on Michigan versus Pennsylvania weren't meant to say anything meaningful about Pennsylvania or Michigan in general, just meant to point out that there is now an incongruence between the ordering of the must-win states..."
Ah. Well, I can see your point.
But I think Nate might be using the Tipping Point list for that analysis. It seems designed to be a better representation of which states are likely to be decisive in the general.
.
In terms of Veeps, I'll suggest that in recent elections, Gore helped Clinton carry Tennessee both times (Tennessee was rather close in both 1992 and 1996), that Quayle helped Bush carry Indiana in 1992 (it was, again, fairly close), that Mondale was largely responsible for Carter carrying Minnesota in 1980 (but not 1976 - in 1980 it was fairly close and Carter got wiped out most other places), and that Muskie was reponsible for Humphrey's victory in Maine in 1968. That's not a particularly terrible record.
Sean:
Me again, Arab AMerican Michigan voter.
I agree with you that the Dearborn Arab American vote will go overwhelmingly for Obama.
But as I said, the Arab American suburban vote (in Oakland County--where my parents live) is composed of wealthy Chaldean Christians and Lebanese Christians, and among them, there is a lot of hesitation to vote for Obama. I know we should avoid anecdotes, but my mom (who is an Obama supporter) was telling me that at a recent family dinner party, when the discussion turned to politics, literally every person said they did not believe Obama was a Christian, and that they would not be comfortable taking the risk voting for him. Perhaps this knee-jerk reaction has a lot to do with the discrimination (perceived or real) that many Arab Christians felt they were subject to in Muslim countries. Either way, the suburban Arab American (and Chaldeans don't even call themselves Arab!) vote will likely be either split or slightly for McCain. Dearborn, which is heavily Muslim, will be for Obama. Things can change, but based on growing up in the Chaldean community, I think there is even more irrational resistance to voting for a Black candidate than among, say, voters in Macomb County. It's sad but true...
Just as Obama said, all of this talk of vice presidential selection is very premature. A candidate should take battlegrounds into consideration when choosing a VP only if it would definitely matter. As the trends are going now, Obama might not need any help getting elected, which means he should instead choose the vice president for what he is supposed to choose them for: doing the job of VP well.
It would be stupid to choose a lame-duck VP just because they could get you a few more electoral votes when, in the end, you didn't need those votes at all. And, for how he has run his campaign and for what he has pushed as his presidential aspirations, Obama would lose credibility and momentum as a leader if he chose a vice president for political reasons rather than because of their competence and philosophies.
So, to all of those in this thread and the previous who are discounting entire political careers because their states of origin are small or they've held their current post for a shorter period of time than others, cool down. Obama doesn't need to decide until right before the convention, and he shouldn't because if he doesn't need a electoral boost from his VP then he'll better know then, and if he does then getting it a close to november as possible is ideal.
My vote, as was Sean's, is for Schweitzer. In addition to Sean's arguments, intentionally choosing such an inexperienced VP will send the message that Obama really isn't afraid of the "inexperienced" attacks and isn't afraid to take a VP from a state he won't win anyway. It will show that he is dedicated to his message of a new Washington and that he is able to stick to his principles rather than choosing allies for political positioning.
John, Clinton did not need Gore's help to carry TN given that Perot siphoned off conservative votes. Gore couldn't even carry his own state of TN in 2000, costing him the election.
Edwards couldn't give Kerry NC in 2004 and Agnew could not deliver MD to Nixon in 1968. Few VPs besides LBJ have delivered a home state that was otherwise unlikely.
Nate - Have you seen this poll showing McCain up 9 in Indiana? Couldn't find an original source.
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