To follow up on Sean's post, Sean Reagan at The Back Forty (not our Sean) tracked down a list of 17 states in which the Obama campaign is focusing its Organizing Fellows program. We can contrast these against the 16 states that McCain identified as toss-ups in its strategy briefing, and the 17 states that appear on one of the two versions of our Swing State Analysis:
One needs to be careful when pruning through these lists, because they may have as much to do with branding as the realities of what the campaign will ultimately do (particularly McCain's list, which was couched in what amounted to a donor pitch). Nevertheless, the contrasts are interesting. Obama sees North Carolina, Virginia, New Jersey and Georgia as competitive whereas McCain does not. McCain sees Connecticut, Maine and Minnesota as competitive whereas Obama does not. Both candidates claim to want to focus on Washington and Oregon, even though the 538 list does not see them as competitive. Neither candidate claims to be focusing on Indiana, Montana or North Dakota, although our lists consider those states to competitive.
The states on McCain's list went to John Kerry by an average of 1 point. The states on Obama's list went to George W. Bush by an average of 2 points. The states on the 538 list went to Bush by an average of 6 points. McCain's list is ridiculously aggressive in a climate where the partisan advantage is shifting to the Democrats. One can understand that he does not want to lock into a defensive posture this early in the campaign, but he dawdles in organizing Virginia and North Carolina, he may find it impossible to regain the lead in the former, and difficult to shake Obama in the latter.
My critique of Obama's list would be the inclusion of Georgia rather than Indiana. This may be a reflection of the Obama campaign's belief that it can improve registration and turnout among traditionally low-turnout groups, like the African-Americans and young voters that are plentiful in Georgia. I think I like Indiana better, however, from the standpoint of portfolio theory. It's still very difficult to imagine Obama winning Georgia without winning North Carolina, and if he's won North Carolina, he almost certainly won't need Georgia. Indiana, on the other hand, offers a relatively unique set of circumstances. Obama is the first Midwestern Democrat to have received his party's nomination in years (and hails from Chicago, almost literally in Indiana's back yard). The Democrats devoted attention to Indiana for the first time in years as a result of the state's important primary. And Indiana is an extremely manufacturing-heavy state at a time of recession. I don't quite trust the couple of polls that showed Obama ahead in Indiana, but I can more easily see it being a surprise state that actually makes the difference between winning and losing the election.
6.17.2008
Tea Leaves
@ 12:45 AM
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Nate,
Given (a) that the last IN poll was 4/29 and (b) that we're talking about a universe of only 4 polls total, how confident are you that IN is really in play?
I have to imagine the inclusion of Georgia is taking into account a factor not listed in your projections: Bob Barr as Libertarian candidate. It's another x factor, Barr could possibly add to the 6% he's polling at in his home state.
The thing about GA is that you don't have to have super extensive field ops - the places where Obama wants to run up turnout are fairly geographically small.
Also, Barr is from GA, and I think Obama is hoping that they can win over some evangelicals, which are not going to instantly swing for McCain, who isn't particularly religious according to the CW.
Right now, I think Obama wants to make a play everywhere he can. The inclusion of WA is interesting, but a first hand account form a fellow there said they wouldn't have many resources, so I'd caution against using this list to show the Obama camp's full/equal priorities.
The choice to disregard IN may be due to the lack of success Obama had there in the primary - the campaign may not feel is has a good strategy for that state yet, given that she won despite his money advantege/proximity to IL.
Nate,
I really like the portfolio theory idea. Could you make this more quantitative?
You say:
It's still very difficult to imagine Obama winning Georgia without winning North Carolina
but you don't have to imagine, do you?
I understand that right now you run your simulations using independent random fluctuations. However, you could also add a random Gaussian component to each of the regression coefficients. The appropriate width of the Gaussian can be extracted from standard linear least squares analysis.
The result would be more consistent with your portfolio theory intuition, in that states with similar demographics will be correlated in your simulations. For example, if black turnout is unexpectedly large on election day, this would show up in your simulations as a positive fluctuation of the coefficient for the variable representing the proportion of black people in each state.
You could then look at your simulations and determine exactly how many times Obama needed Georgia to win, and how many times he really did manage to win Georgia without winning North Carolina. Finally, you could apply this to all states, and highlight the battlegrounds that really matter.
That would be very cool.
If Obama's campaign is going to devote resources to Georgia, then I truly do not understand why (given the chances of winning in Georgia) they do not likewise devote resources to organizing in Alaska, Montana, Louisana, Mississippi, and Indiana. It is better to over organize early (especially when you have a large money advantage) then to have to do so late (say for instance if polls start showing those states as becoming possibilities late in October). If you had set the ground forces there already you could captialize on such late shifts in the electorate. I say go for broke; fortune favors the bold.
Heh Nate. your bf skinner style of posting is turning me into a bird in a cage with a button! posts at 11:45 pm! when are you giving us an rss feed?
I imagine that the Obama campaign has done enough internal polling of all the states and have calculated enough random statistics (like 500k unregistered blacks in GA) to figure out which places are in play and have room for growth.
We're working off months old polls and we're not looking closely at the very local demographics.
Perhaps it also has to do with geography-- IN is so close to headquarters, they could send people there if it started to heat up, and GA is a natural hub if you're already in NC and FL.
The polls for Alaska, Mississippi, Louisana, and Montana are all within the last 3 weeks, and all show Obama within 9 points of McCain. Another added bonus of heavily organizing in these states is that there are high profile Senate races taking place there. Organizing early in Alaska, Mississippi, Montana and Louisana could well put the Dems over the top in each of them.
Don't underestimate the value of making Mccain defend a state. Obama has a lot more money. If he can shave 5% off the polls in GA and make Mccain spend money there to defend it , those are dollars he can't spend in other states.
The problem is that all of the states listed --- Montana, Alaska, Louisana, and Mississippi --- Obama is polling better than he is in Georgia (the last poll put him down by 10 pts there). Two of these states (Louisana and Mississippi) also contain the same demographics that his campaign sees as an potential plus factor for Georgia being a swing state --- a large number of unregistered African Americans. Just saying that I don't understand how, if Obama's campaign thinks Georgia is in play, why do not think the same way about the four states I have mentioned.
Something to keep in mind about Obama's list is that the Organizing Fellows launched there this last weekend, which means that the states must have been picked some time ago in order to have time to organize and prepare. I expect that the list is more accurate as a reflection of the time when the states were picked than now.
My understanding is that there are more Organizing Fellows who will be sent to other states in July. If it turns out that some states (such as Washington) do not need the extra resources, they could probably be shifted to other states at that time while continuing to keep people in the real battleground states.
Anything that involves the logistics of getting people on the ground campaigning is going to be relatively slow to react to changes, it's the nature of the beast.
By the way, the 17 target states match very closely with this analysis from mid-May - the only difference is that Minnesota is not included and Georgia is. I wouldn't be surprised if the campaign had been looking at something very like this analysis.
With respect to concerns about Obama sending organizing fellows to Georgia versus other states I'd make a couple of points based on my own experience with the campaign:
1. These folks know what they're doing.
2. Voter registration is a HUGE part of what these organizing fellows will be doing. In some of these states I guarantee you they're looking at where it's feasible to register a ton of new voters that are likely Obama voters.
3. The organizing fellows are unpaid and the majority will be staying in "supporter housing" for free. So in GA you may not need too many actual paid staff people on the ground.
4. As for Indiana, I suspect we may have already laid a lot of the ground work during the primary or our polling is telling us there are better places to work.
The inclusion of Georgia could be a sort of preview or feeler to see what would happen in that area if Obama put Nunn on the ticket. Nunn's not my preferred VP candidate, but he is getting a lot of press as a possibility. From the perspective of the Obama campaign, Virginia could be the same thing. Perhaps what we're seeing elsewhere from omissions is an indication that Obama isn't intending to put someone from Montana on the ticket?
I would like to know which brand of tea you recommend - you must be drinking something goood to come up with such nice Obama projections!
It will be interesting to see if Al Gore's endorsement and fiery speech have an effect on the polls in Florida. His speech stirred up old resentment about 2000 and Florida in my wife, and we live in North Dakota!
I've lived in Indiana all of my life, and I just don't see much excitement for McCain. I believe Obama will do better in Marion County than any other recent Democrat (Kerry only won it by 2 percent, which was actually the first time it has been Dem since 1964). Obama's the perfect Dem for rapidly growing Hamilton County, where he dominated in the Primary. I don't think he'll win there, but he won't get destroyed.
I believe the key will be Allen County, my former home. It's always been a Republican stronghold in national elections, but Fort Wayne keeps electing Democratic mayors. Obama won pretty easily there, much to my surprise. It has the 3rd largest population of any county in the state.
I don't want to get my hopes up too much for an Obama victory here. Southern Indiana (outside of Bloomington) will be brutal for him. We may see something very similar to the primary; a close win for McCain, where Obama doesn't get quite enough from Marion/Lake/St. Joseph/Monroe to overcome the rest of the state. Good news is I believe he'll win Lake by a larger margin than in the primary. I guess we'll see. I need to sign up to register people since you believe it will be close.
The difference between Georgia and Louisiana and Mississippi is that Obama does better with white voters in Georgia (Metro Atlanta voters) than he does in Mississippi and Louisiana. I imagine Obama thinks he can run a metropolitan strategy of huge black turnout in the Atlanta black suburbs, cutting into the Bush/Kerry margin in Atlanta white suburbs, and turning out newly populous and gentrified city of Atlanta neighborhoods for him. A lot of this depends on what kind of turnout McCain can get in Appalachia and South Georgia.
In Louisiana, I am also sure Landreaiu is doing some of Obama's work for him
I am from Indiana and its hard for me to say that its going to be competitive. I went to Purdue, George Bush won the campus precincts. Indiana is an astonishingly republican state. It helps that Chicago is so close. Obama should contest it just so we can solidify our gains in US house from 2006, and give JL Thompson a chance in the governor's race.
I mean compare Dukakis-Bush Sr. , and Kerry- Bush Jr. Same results! Indiana has become MORE republican since the 80s.
"Don't underestimate the value of making Mccain defend a state. Obama has a lot more money. If he can shave 5% off the polls in GA and make Mccain spend money there to defend it , those are dollars he can't spend in other states."
speaking of which: here in ohio it's been a steady stream of mccain commercials, and the main thrust of them has been to play up his heroism/centrist cred. on saturday, the wife rec'd a phone call asking her to listen in on a town hall meeting.
not a peep from obama yet. wonder where the $ is being spent?
Florida is listed in both versions of the "Swing State Analysis" and so it should have a corresponding green box.
Why isn't Florida marked in green in your picture?
Anyway, great post as always.
Two points:
1. The batch of organizing fellows that Obama sent to 17 states was just a precursor. The Obama campaign will be sending organizing fellows to other states somewhere mid-July.
2. It's still very early and the Obama campaign hasn't really started pumping (advertising) money into states. So they might yet decide to start focusing on additional states.
Somebody asked Billy the Kid why he robbed banks.
He answered, "Because that's where the money is".
Georgia has 15 votes. So does North Carolina. Only California, Florida, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Texas have more.
If North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, and Idaho *all* shifted, it still wouldn't be as much as Georgia or North Carolina.
I don't think McCain can win if he loses two out of three of Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia. If you take the map, give Obama Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Virginia and North Carolina of the close states, and you give McCain Nevada, Missouri, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, New Hampshire, and Florida, Obama wins with 280.
So this is a killer for McCain. He cannot lose those Southern states. He's perpetually low on cash, and now he's going to have to campagin in Virginia, Georgia and North Carolina.
Seems like an excellent strategy for Obama to me.
Kevin, if by "perfect" for Hamilton County you meant "on the ballot", then I agree with you. This is a surprisingly red county considering its proximity to Marion County: frequently there are no Democrats on the ballot for local offices, and they do not do particularly well in state and national races. It went 3-to-1 for W in 2004.
Many of Obama's votes in May, at least in my precinct, were crossover votes. I would not expect those people to vote for him in November as well.
This would be a great place for Obama to draw votes if he can, though, considering its population (about fifth in the state, a bit behind St. Joseph).
obama up by 11 in Ohio? that's what the new PPP poll says, although the crosstabs look funky:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/6/17/104624/677/740/537255
I too am a life-long resident of the Hoosier state. I agree with Kevin that there is very little excitement for McCain and the best opportunity in decades for a Dem to carry Indiana is upon us. I disagree with "Kiran" who stated the State is becoming "more republican." Indianapolis/Central Indiana is the FASTEST growing major metro in the entire midwest. Out-pacing MSP, Chicago, and Columbus, OH. Marion County is becoming more blue by the day, despite the recent mayoral upset by Republican Ballard (that had nothing to with party, everything to do with taxes/incumbents).
I think that the Dems should have taken note from the primary. Spend some time and money here and results will follow. Why Obama doesn't see this is beyond me. We are a manufacturing state that has been just as devestated as Ohio and Michigan (if not more) and we care about the same things.
The republicans are already starting with their "anti-gay rights" agenda in hopes of scaring the conservatives to the polls. We Hoosiers deserve better than this. Gay rights have no baring on my pocket, my ability to get a job, or getting us the heck out of Iraq and winning in Afganistan.
FYI, Hamilton County is red because it is the primary suburban county to Indianapolis. The two wealthiest cities/towns in the State are there, Carmel and Zionsville.
It seems that when you send out your organizers, you don't want to leave any geographical area uncovered, even if the chance of winning in that specific state is low.
In the traditional Deep South, what would be the most likely swing state to be swung?
As many people mentioned and I think it is important to emphasize, I do not believe that just becuase these states are the focus of the Obama Organizing Fellows means they are the only states with his attention. From my experience with the campaign, I know there will be attention given to North Dakota, Montana, and Alaska. Obama has more money than McCain. We will be seeing him play in many more states than McCain can dream of.
You don't understand. Georgia and Arizona are absolutely key. In case of a civil war, you must keep the blue zone contiguous with Canada, even if you should win Florida.
Maybe in the next version of this chart you can include a column for contested U.S. Senate races.
Another possibility is that the purpose of Organizing Fellows is not solely winning the presidential election. The advantage of coming from a community organizing background is that Obama is much more aware of the support he'll need to actually get policies enacted and move the country in a positive direction. Even if he doesn't win Georgia, getting more Democrats involved in the political process there and getting more Democrats elected there will be positive for his agenda.
There's an obvious caution that he shouldn't be overconfident about winning, but look at the primaries -- when you have an advantage in money and volunteers, you can work to win everything you can get, not just the minimum you need. That advantage is even more pronounced now than it was in the primaries.
He'd be wise to come in to North Dakota. I've been softening people up here for months. Now he just needs to come and collect them...
Nate,
Interesting analysis again, and I agree that Obama should put more effort into Indiana.
But, as a Georgia resident, I do not trust any of the polling here. It's very easy to get Obama to 45% of the vote in the general election (see this piece from the Savannah Morning News that quotes some of my computations: http://savannahnow.com/node/511914). As I've noted before, there's no great enthusiasm for McCain here among evangelicals or among fiscal conservatives, and McCain would be crazy to assume that he will win Georgia, considering that it's entirely likely that 30% of the electorate will be African-American, and 4% Latino.
If the Obama campaign is smart, and I think they obviously are, they will conceive a strategy that could win the election without MI, FL, OH, or PA. I know this is a very unlikely scenario, but wins in the following states get to 270: WA, OR, CA, NM, MN, IA, WI, IL, GA, NC, VA, MD, NJ, CT, MA, NY, VT, ME.
Of course, it is likely that if Obama wins NC, he will have a landslide victory, and also likely that McCain would have a solid electoral college victory if he won those four big states.
Still, the polls so far do not seem to reflect the likelihood that Obama will be able to shift the demographics of the turnout. And states like Georgia and North Carolina seem prime for the taking.
FWIW, PPP has Barack up a solid 11 in Ohio with equal power on both sides of the gender gap and strong party support.
I am also in North Dakota. The state is unique in that it does not actually have voter registration--you just have to show up with your driver's license or some other ID to prove that you live in your precinct. This may be the reason both candidates left it off their lists. McCain has been running ads here.
In 1988 Dukakis lost the national vote by 7.5% and he got 39.7% in IN, in 2004 Kerry lost the national vote by 2.5%, and he got 39.2% in IN.
Thats a Republican trend.
Yes Obama has advantages that Kerry didn't (Obamaniacs descending into Lake county). He will close the gap, but make it a squeaker? Not gonna happen [all bets are off in an Obama 400 EV landslide]
Isn't Bob Barr from Georgia? He should pull McCain voters.
Maybe that combined with a voter registration drive is the logic for Georgia.
mrick
Nate,
There is one clear scenario where Obama could win Georgia but not North Carolina: If McCain fights tooth and nail in NC and ignores GA. So long as GA is a plausible pick-up (which I think it is given Barr), then this is just part of the effort to spread McCain's time and resources thin.
The Georgia Democratic party is a shambles. Remember why Georgia is somewhat different from other southern states: - It "fell" later.
Georgia's first GOP governor since reconstruction got elected in 2002. Both houses of the legislature flipped immediately afterwards - legislators switched parties like rats off a sinking ship.
This was a significant institutional hit for the state Dem party, which still hasn't recovered.
This has two implications - first, it makes Georgia harder to pick up than it would otherwise seem. Second, it means that an effort to prop up the state party might be more useful than other states.
These two factors work against each other, but I suspect, in the short term (through November) that the first would win out.
Basically, I don't see Georgia flipping. But, in the medium term, the work wouldn't be wasted.
I don't think anyone has done a GA poll with Bob Barr in it; I'd be curious to see how bad he hurts McCain.
I live in Newt's old district (right next door to Barr's old district); this is a VERY red area of Metro Atlanta. But I'm seeing as many Obama stickers on cars as i do McCain stickers. During the past 2 presidential cycles, "W" stickers outnumbered everything 10:1. There is no passion for McCain here. IF there is one state where Barr can do for Obama what Nader did for Bush, this is it. IF Obama can register the 500k of unregistered Blacks, this could be interesting. There are also lots of Hispanics that nobody talks about. Over and above that, where do you think the people who made GA grow so fast come from....Mississippi? No, they come from NY, NJ, MA, Philly, Chicago, etc. You have lots of fed up Latte and Red wine drinking Whites (present company) and an a town full of thriving middle and upper class Black professionals. You have 10 HBCUs (Black Colleges) in the state with kids chomping at the bit to do something to help. Sure, this state is still full of Obama-haters, but one of his first really big rallies was 20k people at GA Tech.
The state Republican party has fractures. The Governor fights with the legislature. I don't care if this is just a distraction to draw McCain's resources, it might be worth it
There is a serious error in this post. The original Obama campaign message was not that it is "focusing its Organizing Fellows program" in these 17 states, it was that in these states the program "need[s] the most resources." That's a significant difference that explains why Indiana was not included: the principal area where the organizing program pays off in Indiana is in Lake County, which is right next to Chicago; the Obama campaign has no shortage of resources (infrastructure & volunteers) in this part of the country.
I agree with Peter... also, the raw number of votes in Indiana is small enough that they will be able to run a solid field program without the "fellows." I'm sure they'll have staff there very soon. The whole point of the fellows program as I understand it is to be a training ground for new organizers, and to help build the volunteer army in states where they need to contact huge numbers of voters to win.
The Obama strategy seems pretty obvious to me: use their proven organizing advantage to compete in as many states as possible, so that when October rolls around they will have not one or two paths to 270, but many. Plus, if they do well in MORE than a few of those states Kerry lost, it's going to be a blow out.
Sure seems to me that Indiana and Virginia are going to be added to the large (>10 EV) swing states, along with OH, PA, and FL. Very interesting election coming up!
Georgia is not a question of economics, per se.
The thing about Georgia is how far Right Republican Georgia is, and what kinds of appeals McCain would have to make to hold it.
Contesting Georgia is akin to being able to conjure the Republican Primary into continuing until November. Right-wing statements to motivate the authoritarian and theocratic base of the Republican Party in Georgia will alienate independent voters elsewhere.
I grew up in Georgia and there are two things to remember:
1) The Atlanta Metro area has the votes today.
2) Atlanta is considered one of, if not the, best places in the country to be Black.
If the south side of Atlanta showes up in record numbers, all bets based on past history are off.
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