As should be apparent from the new chart that appeared on the site in the last few moments, our Senate tracking is ready to go. We currently project the Democrats to gain 6.7 seats. However, the distribution is rather asymmetric: four current GOP-held seats (VA, NM, NH, CO) are exceptionally likely to go to the Democrats, two others (AK and MS-B) are more or less toss-ups (we project the Republican as a very slight favorite in both), and then there is a "long tail" of seats that the Democrats may have an outside shot at. Among Democratic-held seats, meanwhile, only Louisiana looks to be under any threat; we give the GOP about a 20 percent chance of winning it.
We give the Democrats about a 20 percent chance of reaching 60 seats counting Joe Lieberman and Bernie Sanders, and a 13 percent chance counting Sanders but not Lieberman. The Democrats are nearly certain to hold on to an outright majority of seats, whether or not Lieberman's seat is counted.
There is, obviously, a lot of explanation required for what goes into all of this, which will come in doses over the next day or two.
6.30.2008
Senate Projections are Live
@ 11:21 AM
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47 comments
". . . whether or not Liberman's seat is counted.
NOTE TYPO ON LI(E)BMAN.
EXCELLENT NEWS TO SEE THESE NEW PROJECTIONS.
I agree with your view of North Carolina. While I think the race is certainly winnable for the Democrats, a lot of people have been over-estimating the Dems' chances of knocking off Sen. Dole. Winning that race is going to be very tough, particularly with a mostly-unknown State Senator.
Keep a special eye on Oregon and Maine, which I think will predict how well Democrats do in November. Both Sens. Collins and Smith are very popular, moderate Senators in blue states that will go heavily to Obama. If either of them loses, or perhaps both, it is going to be a Democratic Senate landslide that will wash away every vulnerable Republican incumbent.
Any efforts at reading tea leaves and seing what would happen if certain senators left the senate to join an Obama administration? just curious...
You're gonna start giving Cook and Rothenberg a run for their money!
What's the basis for the projection of Idaho's Senate race at 82% Republican retention? I've not seen any polls that show this one at all close, though I'd definitely like it to be.
CLARIFICATION SUGGESTION:
Now that you have both Senate and Presidential poll detail, you might change the heading of the "Poll Detail" for the Presidential polls to read "Presidential Poll Detail."
Also, the ordering of the various tables and graphs on the right side is a bit confusing since it jumps from pres to senate to pres.
Right on I think, Nate. From the antecdotal evidence from Alaska one picks up here in the Seattle area, I'm inclined to think that Stevens may well be defeated along with his colleague, Young, in the House. The stench of corruption in the GOP in Alaska is pervasive.
I know less about what is going on in Mississippi, but strong African American turnout for Obama might just add that seat to the Democratic side, as well.
I wish I were as optimistic about KY, OR, and MN. Obama might help in the latter two sates, but Smith's efforts in Oregon and Franken's inherent weakness as a candidate in MN make those states a reach. As for KY, I have no idea what's going on there. I'd only hope that the anti-incumbent, anti-Washington sentiment might tip the balance against McConnell.
I'm excited to see the Senate projections. Some questions that I hope you will be able to answer:
1. How do you do the regression for Senate races--what factors count and how much? same for every Senate race or different regression models in different races? to what extent is the model empirically based on past election results?
I thought I generally understood how you did the regression model for the primaries and less confidently how you do it for the general. But, it seems like the Senate races will require something completely different.
2. I understand the snapshot is the current status and the projection is the future prediction, but on what basis are you making it? It seems to be very different than what you're doing in the general as sometimes the frontrunner increases his lead. I'm sure you have some good common sense basis for it that is just eluding me.
I know you said details will come out in due course, so please do not consider this a nag post. Just wanted to hit some areas that I hope you will elucidate when the time comes. Much thanks again on the hard work.
Great to see this up! Comprehensive sources on the senate races are few and far between.
The Collins and Smith races, as Mark said, will be interesting to watch. I could see them falling similar to Chaffee (RI) to Whitehouse in the event of a solid Obama victory. He was the most liberal Republican--going as far as not voting for George W. Bush in 2004--but was rejected by RI voters with a strong anti-Republican wave.
OH-OH, something got scrunched at the top of the page (where you have the FAQ etc). I assume it will be fixed.
More generally, you may want to move to a different format, where you put ALL SENATE STUFF ON ANOTHER PAGE (also would give more advertising space), while on the FRONT page you would have only a Senate Synopsis with a LINK to the SENATE PAGE.
NOW that you have that second page, why not put the "Senate Polling Permathread Update" ALSO on the Senate page with the data (while still keeping something on the front page), so that there's always a story to accompany the charts?
Right now all I see on that page is a big McCain ad right in the middle of your Senate page.
I assume this is all transitional, and keep up the improvements! Just a quick reaction from me above.
Great work and interesting results. Just as others have said, I'm very curious to find out more about the mechanics behind all this. But I'm sure that information will come in due time. For now, let me just say thank you for the work you've put into this.
Several suggestions for your model:
1. Take corruption into account, as well as how the presidential candidate is doing in the state right now (as opposed to in 2004.) I don't see why your regression model gives Stevens a solid +7.3 advantage, when Obama is 5 points behind in the state. See MT-Sen, 2006 for example. Tester was very liberal - but he still got elected.
2. Take name recognition into account. Many challengers should be expected to make up a lot of room as they increase their name recognition; you should try to include that into your projection (as opposed to your snapshot.)
You might want to put that first red bar on the Senate seat count at 51 instead of 50. The 51 seats gets party-lockstep votes and the organization resolution (which disburses committee chairs, etc) passed, while 60 is the number for cloture to break filibusters. Having 50 doesn't do too much good unless you count Lieberman (who may be on his way out of the party come January).
Maybe Nate was being optimistic in assuming that Obama would win and his VP would be the president of the Senate and break a tie?
But I agree with Alex that for now at least you might set the red mark at 51, not 50.
Nate, think of how you want your readers to operate. Now when I read your daily poll updates I usually scroll over to the charts on the right for further detail, and then back to the story.
I think the same logic should apply to the Senate races, and that's why I suggest that that second page be labeled "SENATE RACES" and that the daily or weekly stories related to the Senate be on the same page as the Senate Poll Data and all relevant charts, so that your readers can scroll over to check them as they read your stories.
Another way to do this is for you to in effect have a 'Features' header on page one, with links to latest stories on President and General 2008 Election, and to Senate stories. And anyone clicking on the Senate stories would then go to the Senate page and have all relevant charts accompanying any story.
Something like that. . .
Thanks for considering this. Right now, page 2 has mostly presidential stuff on it, and that's not what people might be expecting. Again, I know this is probably transitional, but I just wanted to suggest another way to do it.
Here's a crazy thought:
Could you add up-ticket coattails to your Senate regression model?
ie: Senate races would be affected by how well or poorly either Presidential candidate is doing at any given time.
This might require some delicacy, but could be interesting...
Now how about those House races, huh? Just kidding! Seriously though...
While the numbers are disappointing, I still am hoping for the unseating of the two hypocrites, Smith and Coleman. I have faith in Minnesotans to send Coleman to K street where he really wants to be anyway.
many republicans are coming back in 2009
no '60' senate seats for democrats
hehe
Maine and Oregon are so interesting because the results in each will demonstrate just how far Democratic gains will go. Both Collins and Smith remain popular in their states, and the question is whether enough voters hate the GOP brand enough to vote for the Democratic challengers (Tom Allen and Steve Merkeley). The comparison to Lincoln Chafee is a good one: Chafee had an approval rating at 60 percent+, and still lost because the voters just could not pull the lever for a Republican. Given Maine's more moderate stance in comparison to Maine, Collins' approvals will probably need to be below 60 percent for Allen to win in the end.
One more thing: Nate, there is no way that Noriega has a better chance in Texas than Allen in Maine. Nor is Maine as likely to flip to as Kansas, which has not elected a Democratic Senator in over 70 years. Just a quibble.
@11:24 Anon:
I don't think that "corruption" is a strong enough of a variable to be included in a regression model. What I wonder is if there is a way to correlate an incumbent's disapproval rating into the model. The theory being that the more people disapprove of an incumbent senator, the more likely the vote will be one against the incumbent rather than a vote for the challenger. It would explain Burns in 2006 and Stevens and McConnell's weakness in 2008. Maybe it could be tied to name recognition - while it's bad to not know who you are, it's worse to be known and hated.
In Oregon, where the primary was only a month ago, and where three polls now say the Democratic challenger is already within 3 or 4, a fourth poll came out giving the incumbent a 9-point lead, and now the Republican has better than 3:1 odds at retention. The Republican has never been above 50%, his approval and re-elects are pitiful, and there haven't been any big developments that would explain a sudden jump in his numbers. It just seems off-the-mark for him to have such good odds right now. I'm wondering if the relative lack of polling in senate races, with no national trends for statewide races to compensate for it, means polls that may be outliers will have more weight than they might warrant? Also, should favorables, re-elects and the 50% threshold for incumbents be factored in at all?
Rasmussen and Gallup are in total agreement today.
+156 for McCain.
There isn't any Republican running against Pryor in Arkansas. His only opposition is Rebekah Kennedy of the Arkansas Green Party.
Yeah, I think he'll win.
TY-
In Idaho there is a January poll with Risch up 42-32.
Nothing else has since been reported.
I think the 82 percent chance is pretty close.
Your 538 regression on Indiana for the presidential election is weird for the 5th youngest state in the nation and also one bordering Chicago and Illinois.
I mean there will be tons of volunteers running all over Indiana.
I also think that now that with much of eastern Iowa is flooded it will be interesting to know how Obama, who enjoys more support on the eastern part of the state, fairs.
Today, on its website, The Economist has a cool picture of Obama, with an article entitled "Occuping The Center"
I have the feeling The Economist is going to endorse Obama for president....
Given expectations, I don't think media endorsements will mean a lot for Obama, but they could for McCain, should he somehow manage to amass the majority of them.
Random site-related technicality:
I'm having a problem with reading comments. If there are more than 15-20 (haven't figured out the exact number), when I click the "read comments" button, the first comments get cut off. On heavily-trafficked threads, I sometimes lose more than half of them.
Is this a browser problem? I'm using Safari, but I've used FireFox and I'm not sure there's any difference. I'm noticing now that I may be able to read all the comments by clicking the "Post a Comment" link and opening up this dialogue box, but it would be nice just to be able to read them right off.
Thanks.
the economist backed Kerry last time so it is not really suprising
ROYG: It's not a browser problem it's a server software limitation. If you wnat to see all comments related to a given article, you need to click first on the (bold red) title of that article, which will bring the article up in a separate page including all the comments to that article.
I have turned off the inline/autoloading comments for now. They were substantially increasing loadtimes and, as people have noticed, you were only able to see the last 20 or so. You guys should let me know if you greatly miss them.
test
Nate,
Great new Senate stats. I have a suggestion about the current graph "Probability of Democrats controlling AT LEAST this many senate seats". Instead of this current chart, I'm thinking that it might be better and clearer to show the plot showing the "probability to control EXACTLY that number of seats". Logically, we would get a bell-shape histogram, centered more or less around the most likely result (currently roughly around 56 seats). It would be good to give an idea of what's the most likely result and how wide the distribution is.
Nate,
I really don't understand counting Lieberman's seat as "Democrat-controlled" in the Senate tracker. He's become a chief spokesman for the GOP nominee, will speak at the GOP convention, and has expressed physical fear of attending the Dem convention. He's the ultimate defacto and dejure DINO.
I can think of only 2 scenarios where Lieberman might caucus with the Dems next year: Dems +0 (partisan makeup identical to the current one), where he would have the same leverage as now in terms of tipping control of the Senate, or Dems +9, where his vote would make their majority filibuster-proof (of course he could change that on a vote-to-vote basis, but they might see a percentage in offering him plums to keep him onside overall).
Even under these (fairly unlikely) scenarios, referring to his seat as "controlled" by the Democrats in the 111th Congress seems iffy at best.
Lorne,
Since those are the only two breakpoints that really matter, then we might as well count him. Otherwise you can't really come up with an easy way to present the data.
Alex,
but even at those two breakpoints, there's no guarantee that Lieberman will choose (or be allowed) to caucus with the Dems. Especially in the Dems +0 scenario, the probability of his seat being "controlled" by the Dems seems certain to be <1 -- quite possibly <0.5.
Even if you consider Lieberman truly "independent", the current chart is basically treating a variable as if it were a constant. Choosing not to label his seat as "controlled" by the Dems isn't the same as calling it "controlled" by the GOP.
Why would acknowledging this reality preclude an "easy way to present the data"? It's fairly simple: If the Dems end up with the same # of seats, they "control" 50 seats (counting Sanders). You just move the labels on the X-axis one slot to the right. Easy, and more accurate.
Nate,
Good decision on the comments display. Makes much more sense, esp. since most posts are getting >20 comments these days. I was always clicking on comments and then realizing I needed to click on the post's title or on "Post a Comment" to see the whole thread. Thanks.
Nate:
I hope you factor downticket effects heavily into your regression. Generally, the less well known a candidate, the more their eventual total depends upon the results upticket (in this case, Presidential). That's because when swing voters have less information, they're more likely to use their upticket vote as a heuristic.
Practically perfect in every way.
I have only 2 wishes left:
1. Turnout post for the senate: analyze what the effect of higher turnout would be, taking into consideration probable spending patterns for the national campaign. Something like your 40/20 etc. scenario post, but updated. (personally, I always mentally add a percent or so of popular vote for Obama because I think that turnout will break the models; I want to know if that brings the 60 real democrats in the senate into the realm of reality. It looks as if it might not - the "leans GOP" states are pretty white. But maybe a good turnout analysis will show that some of the "likely GOP" could be better chances than the current "leans GOP". That would be very interesting info.)
2. Color code the EV outcome graph by popular margin. Shades of red on one side, shades of blue on the other, and the wins pop/loses election ones can be purple and/or yellow. A given EV would have several popular vote possibilities, so the colors would stripe diagonally not vertically.
In 2000- We unseated Republican incumbent in Blue States in
DE(Roth-R)
MI(Abraham-R)
MN(Grams-R)
WA(Gorton-R)
In 2008 - 4 Republican Senator in Blue States are up for re-election
ME(Collins-R)
MN(Coleman-R)
NH(Sununu-R)
OR(Smith-R)
We are favored to unseat Sununu(NH). We are a slight underdog in ME,MN,and OR. Obama's coattails can help Allen(ME),Franken(MN),and Merkley(OR). just as Gore's coattails helped Stabenow(MI)and Cantwell(WA).
In 2008 5 Republican Senates are OPEN. Democrats are favored to win 3 of those Seats.
VA- Battleground State- Popular Democrat vs Unpopular Republican.
NM- Battleground State- Popular Democrat vs Unpopular Republican
CO- Battleground State- Popular Democrat vs Unpopular Republican.
Republicans will hold on to open seats in ID and NE.
Thanks to Obams's strength among black voters in South- we can win MS-B and NC and Scandals involving Ted Stevens-AK.
I think it speaks to the quality of this new Senate model that it's projection coincides exactly with the Senate index formed from multiple sources over at DCW.
http://www.demconwatchblog.com/2008/06/senate-forecast-june-30.html
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