For space reasons, we house our Senate map and our Senate polling detail table in a separate thread. Senate polls will be updated approximately once weekly. The Senate Scorecard, which summarizes this data, can be found on the front page.
(Note: revised at 5:45 PM)
Senate polling detail follows below the jump.
6.30.2008
Senate Polling Permathread (Updated 6/30)
@ 11:11 AM
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33 comments
Hey Nate,
Do you think you could put the projected number of Democratic and Republican seats (e.g. 55 Dem. - 45 Rep.) at the top or bottom of the table for some extra context?
Thanks.
As your numbers well demonstrate, the Wicker-Musgrove race in Mississippi may be one of the big ones to watch in November.
In terms of Minnesota, while Franken has definitely had some problems, putting it at 52-45 may be a bit too strong in favor of Sen. Coleman.
My brain is having trouble comprehending the awesomeness of having Senate and Presidential info to follow here at 538.
Wow -- in my earlier comment, I totally missed the seat probability chart in the right nav bar. Now my only question is: in those numbers are we including Bernie Sanders and (cough) Lieberman as Democrats because they caucus with them or are those raw numbers of actual affiliated Democrats?
This site is way too amazing.
I do count both Lieberman and Sanders as that seems to be the most common treatment. But there is a strong argument for not counting Lieberman. I don't think there's any argument for not counting Sanders.
So, if I understand correctly, there is a 20% chance that Democrats will have a filibuster-proof majority in the senate come January. Awesome!
In the "scorecard", South Dakota is abbreviated "SC".
What are the factors that go into the 538 regression? I'm a little more sceptical of it here, as opposed the the presidential, because (A) Senate races are local; just because a D is doing well in one state doesn't mean a different D will do well in a different race, just because the state demographics are similar. And (B), many of these races haven't been polled, especially the non-competetive ones.
And how do you get from the snapshot to the projection?
And most of all, THANK YOU!
Minor correction on the Senate Scorecard. Pryor's opponent is listed as "TBD." In fact, the registration deadline has already passed and no Republican will be on the ballot to challenge him. It is safe to say that your 29.3% Republican vote share projection here is off by about 29.3%.
You could create a tab on the right-hand column that lets you switch between presidential charts and senate charts. If you'd like help with that, I'm sure there are plenty of people who could provide it. I'm one of them.
Love the Senate proj, esp. the odds!
Here's a tough one for you! Blue/Red maps are good, but there should be (sorry) some kind of icon to indicate a state flipping. And mapping s/w is NOT easy to change, I know that.
Anyway, keep up the awesome work!
Senator Pryor doesn't have a GOP contender in Arkansas as Another Mike pointed out. But he does have a Green Party challenger, Rebekah Kennedy.
Are there any polls factoring her in?
Nate, are there between state correlations built into the senate model? If so what is the relative size of these correlations compared to the Presidential race?
Unless I'm reading it wrong, I think you've got Inhofe and Rice in the wrong columns for the Oklahoma seat.
The other anon's right about Inhofe/Rice in the right-hand column.
One Suggestion about Senate Scorecard on right hand side.
To most people here - I doubt this will make a difference (as I assume most realize more GOP seats are up for grab), but to someone who didn't know - the Senate Scorecard makes it look like the GOP is doing better than it is. If another row was added saying something like "39 Democratic /26 Republican seats not up for election this year".
Democratic Senators who have no Republican Opponents.
1)Pryor(AR)
Democratic Senators with Sacrificial Lamb Republican Opponents- Huge Underdogs- A Joke.
1)Biden(DE)70-30
2)Durbin(IL)70-30
3)Harkin(IA)65-35
4)Kerry(MA)75-25
5)Levin(MI)65-35
6)Baucus(MT)70-30
7)Lautenberg(NJ)60-40
8)Reed(RI)80-20
9)Johnson(SD)65-35
10)Rockefeller(WV)75-25
Democratic Incumbents in a tough race
1)Landrieu(LA)55-45
Republican Seats- Democrats are strongly favored to pick up
1)CO(Udall-D)- 55-45
2)NH(Shaheen-D)- 55-45
3)NM(Udall-D)- 60-40
4)VA(Warner-D)- 60-40
Republican Seats that are safe-unlikely to flip.
1)AL(Sessions-R)60-40
2)GA(Chambliss-R)55-45
3)ID(Risch-R)55-45
4)KS(Roberts-R)55-45
5)KY(McConnell-R)55-45
6)MS-A (Cochran-R)65-35
7)NE- (Johanns-R)60-40
8)OK- (Inhofe-R)55-45
9)SC-(Graham-R)60-40
10)TN-(Alexander-R)60-40
11)TX-(Cornyn-R)55-45
12)WY-A(Enzi-R)65-35
13)WY-B(Barrasso-R)65-35
Republican Seats- We have a 50-50 chance of winning.
1)AK(Begich-D)51-49
2)ME(Allen-D)52-48
3)MN(Franken-D)51-49
4)MS-B(Musgrove-D)52-48
5)NC(Hagan-D)51-49
6)OR(Merkley-D)52-48
Hell yeah, this is fantastic! The way in which you consolidate the data in such a wide array of polls is astounding in a way that makes polling seem relevant again. I can't imagine your site not having a widespread positive effect on polling in the future, now that you've given value to the information provided by regular and frequent polling of everything (although you happen to only be applying your model to political contests). I'll suggest again, though, that since the focus/interest here is predominantly democrats versus republicans, that you pie charts should strive to achieve a right/left symmetry for comparing the two, and therefore plot democrats (blue) starting at the top and going left and the republicans (red) starting at the top and going right. This can be achieved simply by plotting the wedges in the order blue, green, and red going counter-clockwise.
Hell yeah, this is fantastic! The way in which you consolidate the data in such a wide array of polls is astounding in a way that makes polling seem relevant again. I can't imagine your site not having a widespread positive effect on polling in the future, now that you've given value to the information provided by regular and frequent polling of everything (although you happen to only be applying your model to political contests). I'll suggest again, though, that since the focus/interest here is predominantly democrats versus republicans, that you pie charts should strive to achieve a right/left symmetry for comparing the two, and therefore plot democrats (blue) starting at the top and going left and the republicans (red) starting at the top and going right. This can be achieved simply by plotting the wedges in the order blue, green, and red going counter-clockwise.
I definitely only clicked once so I don't know what just happened there. Also, can someone explain why they don't feel Bernie Sanders counts as a democrat? He seems to uphold progressive and liberal ideals as well as anyone in the party.
Looking at the Open Republican Seats in CO,ID,NE,NM,and VA.
Obama is favored to win CO and NM.
Obama wins CO by a 52-47 percent margin. CO Democratic Senate Candidate Mark Udall is favored to win by a 55-45 percent margin. Obama wins NM by a 52-47 percent margin. NM Democratic Senate Candidate Tom Udall is favored to win by a 60-40 percent margin.
Virginia is going to be a battleground state. It will be a 50-50 race. VA Democratic US Senate Candidate Mark Warner is favored to win by a 60-40 percent margin.
Looking at the Blue State Republican Incumbents in ME,MN,NH,OR.
Obama wins ME by a 57-42 percent margin. Susan Collins(ME) needs to get all of the Mccain Voters and 15% of the Obama voters to survive. Tom Allen(D)is a formidable candidate. Allen wins by a 52-47 percent margin.
Obama wins MN by a 55-45 percent margin. Norm Coleman(MN) needs to get all of the McCain voters and 10% of the Obama voters. Franken needs to get 95% of the Obama votes to win. Franken wins by a 50-50.
Obama wins NH by a 55-45 percent margin. The Shaheen(D)Vs Sununu(R) race margin will replicate the Presidential Race margin in NH. Shaheen(D) is favored to win by a 55-45 percent margin.
Obama wins OR by a 55-45 percent margin. Gordon Smith(OR) needs to get all of the McCain voters and 10% of the Obama voters to survive. Merkley(D) is likely to win by a 50-50 margin.
Democrats have shot at winning Red States in AK,MS,and NC.
Obama loses AK by a 55-45 percent margin. Begich wins AK by a 50-50 percent margin. Obama loses MS by a 55-45 percent margin. Musgrove wins MS by a 50-50 percent margin. Obama loses NC by a 47-52 percent margin. Hagan wins NC by a 52-47 percent margin.
Oh wow, awesome! Good work, Nate.
My one suggestion would be to somehow alter the color scheme on the Senate map to differentiate pick-ups from holds.
Amazing site! Fantastic job, I must say. One question, shouldn't the likely senate composition add up to 100 and not 98, if you include Sanders and Lieberman?
Idaho Senate polling update, take it for what it's worth (not an independent poll): http://www.newwest.net/city/article/larocco_releases_poll/C108/L108/
Predicting the Presidential Results of States which have US Senate Races.
1)AL- McCain(R)59-40
2)AK- McCain(R)53-46
3)AR- McCain(R)55-44
4)CO- Obama(D)51-48
5)DE- Obama(D)55-44
6)GA- McCain(R)54-45
7)ID- McCain(R)59-40
8)IL- Obama(D)60-39
9)IA- Obama(D)53-46
10)KS- McCain(R)55-44
11)KY- McCain(R)58-41
12)LA- McCain(R)56-43
13)ME- Obama(D)56-43
14)MA- Obama(D)58-41
15)MI- Obama(D)52-47
16)MN- Obama(D)55-44
17)MS- McCain(R)55-44
18)MT- McCain(R)51-48
19)NE- McCain(R)57-42
20)NH- Obama(D)54-45
21)NJ- Obama(D)56-43
22)NM- Obama(D)51-48
23)NC- McCain(R)52-47
24)OK- McCain(R)60-39
25)OR- Obama(D)53-46
26)RI- Obama(D)61-38
27)SC- McCain(R)54-45
28)SD- McCain(R)54-45
29)TN- McCain(R)57-42
30)TX- McCain(R)53-46
31)VA- Obama(D)50-49
32)WV- McCain(R)55-44
33)WY- McCain(R)60-39
The safe Democratic Seats are
AR- Pryor- unopposed
Sacrificial Lamb GOP Challengers
DE- Biden
IL- Durbin
IA- Harkin
MA- Kerry
MI- Levin
MT- Baucus
NJ- Lautenberg
RI- Reed
SD- Johnson
WV- Rockeller
Vulnerable Democratic Senator
LA- Landrieu
Safe Republican Senators
AL- Sessions(R)
GA- Chambliss(R)
ID- OPEN- Craig- Risch(R)
KS- Roberts(R)
KY- McConnell(R)
MS- Cochran(R)
NE- OPEN-n Hagel- Johanns(R)
OK- Inhofe(R)
SC- Graham(R)
TN- Alexander(R)
TX- Cornyn(R)
WY- Enzi(R)
WY- Barasso(R)
Democratic Pick ups
Open Seats
CO-(Allard-R)- Udall-D
NM-(Domenici-R)-Udall-D
VA-(Warner(R)-Warner-D
Weak Incumbent Strong Challenger
AK- Stevens(R)vs Begich(D)
NH- Sununu(R)vs Shaheen(D)
Tossup
Blue State Coattails
ME- Collins(R)
MN- Coleman(R)
OR- Smith(R)
Red States- High AA Turnout
MS- Wicker(R)
NC- Dole(R)
I like it, but I wonder at the 100% rating for Udall in New Mexico and Warner in Virgina. The Republicans have no chance?
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