Hello. Let's make this introduction official. Many of you may know me as PocketNines from posts over at DailyKos. I found myself on the front page a couple times for pointing out that the all-the-rage Slate delegate counter wasn't accurately capturing the Blowout Principle of pledged delegate wins, and later for pointing out that the popular vote "one person, one vote" principle that is true in the general election is farcically distorted in party primaries.
A few weeks ago, anticipating the end of the primary season and the end to this delegate math madness, I decided I wanted to find some way to keep writing about the election season. This is clearly an election cycle for the ages.
As a delegate math writer at Kos, I couldn't help but notice Poblano's eye-popping work. Being no dummy (thanks, Mom!) I got a hold of Nate and basically said, hey you're going to be super busy, a victim of your own success. Want some help? He seems to have said yes.
Sucker!
Now that he's out in the open, I'll give you a quick few details about me. I'm a JD, but I've worked for the Democratic Party as a campaign field staffer, worked briefly in state politics. I was once a salaried smartass writer, and that's inevitably going to occasionally seep through my posts. I once taught the LSAT for Kaplan, and for me, a little slice of heaven is a day full of logic games. I also spend much of my time playing poker in Los Angeles, so if I post at odd hours, you'll know why.
What I'm not - a statistician by trade, one of Nate's baseball folks, or someone with a public profile outside of blogging. I'm definitely aware I'm a poor man's Nate, and that's no false modesty. Of course, he'd have a hard time finding someone on that level, so what's the poor guy to do?
I'm honored to be helping out here, and it's nice to be saying hello on this historic night. Thanks to Nate for inviting me over, and thanks for your kind words. If there are subjects you think need covering that would fit well on this site, don't be shy!
6.03.2008
Sean = PocketNines
by Sean Quinn @ 8:27 PM...see also site
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22 comments
Sweet, welcome Sean. Love your diaries at DKos.
Now what's up with South Dakota?
Welcome, very nice introduction. Look like S.Dakota is going for Clinton. No suprise there.
Hi, I hear Nate is also a big poker guy; do you two ever play each other?
From Anon-MI:
Uh-oh, we've got two poker players blogging on this site now. That should make for some interesting odds-making down the line.
Thanks, Sean, for joining up and giving us the benefit of your experience and insights.
Thanks Sean. This site has quickly made my top 3 political blogs. Bravo for the quality here. I sense big things in the future...
Looking forward to your thoughts on the main match.
PocketNines,
Do you play on the intrade and betfair political markets?
Everyone - thanks.
Philippe - no. I've looked at intrade, never been to betfair. Why?
Any election-related action I need happens at the poker table. I get crazy people trying to give me money. Two nights ago, a guy insisted that Obama would lose because he could not overcome the electoral losses of Florida and New York. New York. I shitteth you not. I even worked him to make sure he didn't mean New Jersey. Nope. New York. These people have thousands of dollars on the table and are defended around their opinions. I don't need intrade.
Herodotus - Nate and I have never played poker. He doesn't know this yet, but when I win the main event this year I'm gonna immediately bail on him. Of course, this year they actually play the final table 4 months after they whittle the field down to me and my 8 friends. So maybe I'll throw Nate a bone and hang til then.
Good that you've both come out of the anonymous Kossian closet, as it were. Enjoyed both your posts there immensely. This is excellent statistical work.
now we know that olbermann reads 538...he used your language almost exactly...
Sean
Why? I was just curious. I play poker also, hold'em at the Montreal Casino and in some private poker rooms. And I'm political junkie -- so I felt it was natural to play on betfair and on intrade on the political markets -- for every primaries seemed like a new card on the board, a new round of betting...
Sean (or 9s, as I knew you before),
Welcome. I loved the diaries on Kos. This is a really great site.
Poblano AND PocketNines together? Talk about yer dream tickets...
Sounds great. I've got an idea for something I haven't seen looked at that would be interesting (forgive me if I missed it).
Racism and sexism undoubtedly were evident in campaign/media rhetoric during the primaries. I've seen a smattering of exit poll data on people voting based on race or gender, but has anyone looked at this comprehensively?
I'd be curious to know if there are any clues as to whether more people voting admitted to decisions influenced by race or by gender. It might be surprising or interesting in all sorts of directions...
Best,Gary
ThatPoshGirl put together a chart of race and gender voters: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/5/16/115851/934/738/516909
Going by the exit poll data, we can estimate that Clinton gained a net over Obama of millions of votes from those who considered race or gender an important factor.
I doubt we will get an analysis of this here, and I understand why, but the persistent claims by Clinton supporters that Obama's nomination is due to sexism and his being black have been and continue to be very damaging. Especially since Clinton has encouraged these claims.
poblano/pocketnines '08!
Thanks for the race/gender link!
Gary
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