Courtesy of the Politico, Barack Obama’s campaign has telegraphed the electoral focus of its fall campaign. Three are its highest profile defenses (PA, WI, MI), one is a Kerry state in which McCain runs particularly well (NH), and 14 are Bush 2004 states where Obama thinks he has an opportunity to gain on the previous map (IA, NM, OH, CO, VA, FL, MO, NV, IN, ND, NC, MT, GA, AK).
Let's take a look at how FiveThirtyEight breaks down each of these states in terms of polling average, trend adjustment, 538 regression, and 538 prediction.
This map shows a baseline of Obama 200, McCain 139.
John McCain's best slicing and dicing of the public polling data within the 18 states is the polling average. Obama leads in Iowa (+6.2%), Wisconsin (+6.0%), New Hampshire (+6.0%), Pennsylvania (+5.5%), New Mexico (+4.3%), Ohio (+4.0%), Colorado (+2.5%), and Michigan (+1.9%) for a total of 93 EVs. McCain's states are North Dakota (+0.6%), Florida (+1.4%), Indiana (+1.8%), Missouri (+2.2%), Nevada (+2.8%), North Carolina (+4.7%), Alaska (+5.7%), Montana (+7.3%), and Georgia (+8.6%) for 93 EVs. Virginia is dead even, so after adding in the base EVs, the tally would be Obama 293, McCain 232, Unallocated 13.
When we adjust for trends in the polling data, we find ourselves in landslide territory. Obama leads in Iowa (+9.3%), New Hampshire (+9.0%), Wisconsin (+8.8%), Pennsylvania (+8.5%), Ohio (+7.1%), New Mexico (+6.1%), Colorado (+5.2%), Michigan (+4.6%), North Dakota (+4.4%), Virginia (+3.7%), Missouri (+3.3%), Indiana (+2.1%), and Florida (+1.0%), for a total of 158 EVs. McCain holds North Carolina (+0.5%), Nevada (+0.8%), Alaska (+2.8%), Montana (+3.1%), and Georgia (+5.4%), for 41 EVs. Under trend adjustment, the tally adding to our base would be Obama 358, McCain 180.
Under the 538 regression model, Obama leads in Iowa and New Hampshire (both +10.0%), Wisconsin (+8.7%), Pennsylvania (+8.6%), Michigan (+8.0%), Colorado (+7.1%), Ohio (+7.0%), Nevada (+5.4%), New Mexico (+5.2%), Virginia (+3.0%), Florida (+1.6%), and Missouri (+0.5%) for 149 EVs. McCain holds Montana (+0.3%), North Dakota (+2.0%), North Carolina (+2.5%), Alaska and Georgia (both +3.6%), and Indiana (+3.7%) for 50 EVs. Added to our base, the regression tally would be Obama 349, McCain 189.
Finally, the 538 projections as of June 25 show Obama winning Iowa (+9.4%), New Hampshire (+9.3%), Wisconsin (+8.8%), Pennsylvania (+8.5%), Ohio (+7.1%), New Mexico (+6.1%), Colorado (+5.8%), Michigan (+5.2%), Virginia (+3.6%), Missouri (+2.7%), Florida and Indiana (+1.1%) and Nevada (+0.7%) for 160 EVs. McCain projects to hold North Carolina (+0.8%), North Dakota (+0.9%), Montana (+1.8%), Alaska (+3.0%), and Georgia (+5.0%) for 39 EVs. With the baseline, Obama 360, McCain 178.
Under these numbers, McCain needs to gain 2.5% on the polling averages to win (adding Virginia, Michigan and Colorado). He needs to gain 5.2% on the trend analysis to win (to flip Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Virginia, North Dakota, Michigan and Colorado). Percentage-wise, McCain's toughest task is the regression model, since to win he has to gain 7.0% all the way up Obama's list to claim Ohio (Michigan, Florida, Virginia, New Mexico, Nevada and Ohio). Under our projection figures, McCain needs to reclaim Nevada, Indiana, Florida, Missouri, Virginia, Michigan and Colorado to win the presidency. That's a polling gain of up to 5.8%, again with Colorado being the final clinching state (working back up Obama's list) for the third of our four models.
The bad news for McCain in these numbers that among the "safe" Obama base states, Obama holds double-digit projection leads in every one of those states, with the lone exception of Oregon (+9.4%), discussed yesterday. Minnesota is next closest, projected at Obama +10.9%. The rest are just not remotely in play without a huge game-changing event in the race. Moreover, 538 currently projects a number of McCain's "safe" base states in single digits (alphabetically Arizona, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, and West Virginia - see sidebar). While Obama isn't likely to win these states, our models show Obama coming closer to winning them as we sit here in late June than McCain is to winning safe Obama states like Delaware, Maine, Washington, etc.
Finally, there is the matter of the one EV in Nebraska's 2d congressional district, which Obama's camp explicitly added to the list of eighteen. Eventually, we will add broken-out data for this district and refer to the Obama-defined battlegrounds as "the 18.2."
If John McCain's camp identifies a similar roster of states it sees as battlegrounds, we will analyze that list as well.
6.25.2008
The Obama Eighteen
@ 9:45 PM
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61 comments
Great analysis Sean- Love the breakdown of the polling, trend, and regression- helps a lot.
Thomas Dorvank is right.
Off-topic, does McCain pay for each ad clickthrough, or just one per IP address per day or some such? :)
None of those results show anything approaching an Obama landslide. Even if Obama were to win every last one of his eighteen targeted states, the resulting 399 electoral votes would still be slightly below the average electoral vote win over the past 100 years. An average win is 75% of the electoral vote. The median is slightly higher still. A 350 or 360 electoral vote win is actually quite modest in historical terms.
Oh, if I were Obama, I'd be satisfied with 270 -- and count my blessings that I can still win even if my total is "far below average."
Sure, Juris, a win is a win, and that's what matters most. My point is simply that a modest win is not a landslide, and we shouldn't be calling it one.
It may be historically common to have landslides as Mark illustrated- but looking at the last two elections and the position America is in so far in the new millennium a large win would mean a lot more than many of the landslides in the last 100 years were (considering many of those elections weren't ever close- and many landslides were incumbents winning big or times when either party had for a long time been the dominant party in America.
Although I do agree that there is a lot of talk about the historic nature of the campaign- and that fact does illustrate that sometimes many of us- largely Obama supporters- do get ahead of ourselves- especially with recent likely too high double digit polls.
As for the post- great job Sean- you have rebounded well from partisan postings to very informative and analytical posts that have been top notch- and are a great reminded for why the site is really the best online.
If Sean, known for his partisan and ideological factless-based rants, is now using data, it makes me nervous.
More suggestions the new method of predicting the outcome used on this site are biased. Sean doesn't use objective, analytical information.
This isn't about the post- but I feel it's important to say.
There is a lot of posting about this site being too partisan for Obama. I am a lifelong republican and will vote for McCain- but I understand that this is not a good election for republicans. Look at the polls- Obama is up by 5 or so- not tie like Gallup or 15 like newsweek- but pretty clearly around 5. That much of a lead means Obama win. The tide is turning- we Republicans have to deal with it.
Don't blame Sean and Nate for projecting Obama wins as insane liberal ridiculousness. Are some posts partisan? Yes. But, this site is clearly the best online- and republicans that say otherwise because the site doesn't project an Obama win are being more partisan and idiotic than they claim the site is being- because any site projecting McCain will undoubtedly be using the worst analysis and data avaialable.
Message to fellow republicans- Obama is going to win unless there is a very dramatic change (not Obama's "change" btw) in polling. Don't blame pollers or analysts of political data for the shift in American politics- it just makes you look dumb- and is embarrassing republicans who are too tired of defending your brashness.
GO McCAIN.... even if it is unlikely
I sleep better at night after reading posts like these.
One interesting thing (well, interesting to me) is to see how Nate's projections line up with what Obama views as the key states. Are there any states that Nate's analysis suggests that Obama may be missing here?
By my eyeballing, the longest shots overall according to Nate of Obama's 18 are ND (41%), MT (40%), AK (36%), and GA (29%). The best shots of the states that Obama's sort of conceding to McCain at this point are WV (42%), SD (36%), and SC (28%).
So, overall, Obama's views of where he's got a shot seem to line up quite well with what Nate's seeing. The biggest exceptions are probably that Nate sees West Virginia in play and doesn't really see Georgia in play. The other interesting thing is that Nate sees the two Dakotas as being very similar, yet Obama is only focusing on one (ND, which Nate does have as his better shot - 41% - 36%). Nate also sees Georgia and South Carolina as very similar (29%/28%), while Obama apparently sees something he likes in Georgia.
Poblano, any thinking of putting up a graph of the states in order of percent chance of obama wining them, with thickness by their EV count? Might help visualize how close states are to swinging, and be easier to read than the colors (saturation?) of the map.
K J-M I wholly agree. This is a great site, even for us Republicans.
Although- I am one of the famed Republicans dissatisfied with McCain and am pondering Obama- especially after all the gimmicky energy proposals by McCain. I like the anti-pork, and his service- but I feel like he sometimes plays too many political games with faulty gimmicks that seem like the pork he wants to stop. All of this makes me think about Obama despite his being far away from my positions.
Like K J-M I am tired of stupid Republican comments on this site. ITs not a good year- and the liberal bashing just makes it wore by polarizing the election- and when more people are D's than R's this year that spells Republican trouble.
Nice job laying it all out there, Sean.
Anyone else find it odd that they'd include MT and ND but not SD when the demographics are so similar?
And if you insist on bashing this site as partisan, please point out the flaws in Nate's statistical methodology that you think causes the bias. The fact that the model's projections don't jive with what you want doesn't necessarily mean it's flawed.
Interesting to see the Obama campaign adopt this tact. I remember they formerly put up Oregon and Washington as swing states. It seems this one is more accurate of how they should be apportioning their efforts at this point: aggressively. This map is realistic in the sense of including the four blue states and all the standard red-to-swing states, but ambitious for also including Georgia, Montana, North Dakota, Alaska, etc.
First, the McCain campaign did create a list of battleground states in their strategy briefing- if you think that such a thing reflects their actual thinking, seeing as some of these are not battleground states by any stretch of the imagination:
MI, FL, WI, NV, MO, WA, OR, CO, NM, MN, IA, PA, ME, CT, & NH
Second, I do some Internet marketing work and I know that Google CLAIMS that they are able to detect fraudulent clicks and not charge for them. Personally, however, I'm a little skeptical that they can do it as well as they say and certainly they'd have to count one or two clicks before they catch on.
I also have to agree looking at the election in "June" it doesnt look good atm for republican's. but like i said it's june, not november and that's forever like everyone say's in politics..many things have happend even in the big win clinton had in 96 agenst dole, the poll's had him winning by 12-16% or somwhere around there and it ended up being 8%. so big thing's can happen even before election day. however being from nc i dont really see nc being a very great chance for obama even though people say it's a really good shot, there are still plenty of people from rush limbaugh's operation chaos in theses states that said they would stay as dem's to through off the polsters so it'll be interesting to see what happens look's like a great year!.
I'm a little surprised Obama is conceding WV at this point, considering that it has voted Dem in recent elections. Doesn't that make it the only Kerry state that he isn't seriously contesting? Was he really that scarred by the primary?
Also, I still can't fathom what they see in GA that makes them think he has a shot there.
Good Grief and compatriots -
I accept that plenty of people don't like my opinions, since that would be an absurd thing for a political blogger to be sensitive about. I've been open about my partisanship. I think the worse sin is feigning neutrality.
But which opinion piece I've written on this site wasn't based on "facts?" I've offered a few opinions that were mine only and delineated those as such. All the posts had core factual data - even the Clinton post was a factual recounting of the shift in my perception of her from the stance of a mainline Democrat, truthfully explaining how I moved from A to B. The Schweitzer piece was replete with facts, the Pawlenty item was, at its core based on the earlier post showing how VPs don't "win" states and on the contrast between the McCain staffer comment and the Obama behavior of ad buys and organizing resources... I went through them all and am just not seeing it. (Was it the "rant" about Chuck Todd being great and Luke Russert impressing me with his composure and maturity?)
Again, no problem with the attacks, but your attacks on my "factless"-ness should be at least, ahem, fact-based. Please provide the specific link or links. I will wait, because I'm sure you have something specifically in mind and wouldn't just make something up, I wouldn't want to think you're the kind of person who would do that... that would fill me with sadness.
To Anon @ 9:50: What does the Obama campaign see in Georgia? Bob Barr.
Re: Off-topic
Dear Junah Lee and Custos:
It is a mistake to advocate that we all start clicking on McCain's internet ads in order to defraud him of a little cash. Surely, the amount of money will be inconsequential, and it is rather contrary to our message, no?
Let's win this the right way.
How many of these battleground states have down-ticket battles that a strong Obama presence can help?
How many unlisted states, like Texas, does Obama plan to contest for the down-ticket races? States Obama doesn't want to list so he doesn't have to have 5 months of media analysis saying he's spreading himself too thin instead of covering more important issues.
Re Georgia:
Although I don't think it's necessarily a worthwhile target (because if he's turning Georgia, he's already won), the two probable factors that would lead the Obama campaign to pick GA are Bob Barr (as Anonymous pointed out) and the potential to shift the state by registering and getting out the black vote. This clearly wouldn't make a difference in, say, WV or SD, despite their 538 ratings, but with a GA electorate that's 25% black, and 600,000 unregistered black voters, there's clear potential. Obama probably has info on the ground from his primary organizing that leads him to put more effort there.
I think Georgia is a reasonable target. It's definitely the longest shot on the list, but there's a large base of black voters there...and if the Obama campaign makes them feel like they could actually make a difference this time around, could actually carry the state's 15 electoral votes for the black Democratic candidate, combined with the conservative draw of Bob Barr, Georgia could go blue. It's not terribly likely - it's very ambitious - but it's hardly unthinkable. More polling needs to be done in the South; 270ToWin.com actually projects Mississippi as being even more vulnerable.
I think this is a pretty good map, aside from the exclusion of West Virginia and the inclusion of New Hampshire. I think the Obama camp is still a little pissed off at WV for bucking so damn hard for Hillary when it was clear Obama was going to win the nomination anyway.
I'm wondering why Mississippi and South Carolina aren't more of a target, with their large AA populations?
With a large AA turnout in Mississippi, there's no reason why the AA vote can't reach 40% of the Mississippi voters (it was 34% with Kerry running in 2004). If the AA vote hits 40%, Obama just needs 20% of the white in Mississippi to win. Based on exit polls, nearly 200,000 blacks voted in the 2008 Mississippi primaries...only 1,500 voted for McCain. If blacks choose Obama over McCain 95% to 5% (which I think is conservative), then Obama can indeed win Mississippi with just 20% of the white vote.
Now the rub is...Kerry only got 14% of the white vote in '04. Gotta wonder if an ambivalent white GOP turnout and a huge pro-Obama turnout among whites can move Obama to get 20% of the white vote?
South Carolina has a somewhat smaller black-to-white ratio, but also a higher percentage of whites voting for Democrats, so I think S. Carolina and Mississippi are very similar states.
I'm wondering why Mississippi and South Carolina aren't more of a target, with their large AA populations?
With a large AA turnout in Mississippi, there's no reason why the AA vote can't reach 40% of the Mississippi voters (it was 34% with Kerry running in 2004). If the AA vote hits 40%, Obama just needs 20% of the white in Mississippi to win. Based on exit polls, nearly 200,000 blacks voted in the 2008 Mississippi primaries...only 1,500 voted for McCain. If blacks choose Obama over McCain 95% to 5% (which I think is conservative), then Obama can indeed win Mississippi with just 20% of the white vote.
Now the rub is...Kerry only got 14% of the white vote in '04. Gotta wonder if an ambivalent white GOP turnout and a huge pro-Obama turnout among whites can move Obama to get 20% of the white vote?
South Carolina has a somewhat smaller black-to-white ratio, but also a higher percentage of whites voting for Democrats, so I think S. Carolina and Mississippi are very similar states.
Another reason Georgia might come into play: Sam Nunn, if he were to become the VP nominee.
In the meantime it makes sense for the reasons others have mentioned to keep Georgia in play.
@21:50
Gore lost WV by 7, Kerry lost it by 13. WV doesn't exactly love Obama. I don't think that Obama realistically has a chance there regardless of the 538 regression.
Sean,
Don't bother with your "bias" critics. They have some notion that they are devaluing the site in the eyes of the readers. Obviously, deluded.
If you need something to work on, work on your logic (generally good) and brevity (a little better today).
If you need to answer the jerks just to satisfy your street instincts, maybe you should develop a Bias Page With a Bias Button. If that seems silly - it should - just go on about your business.
Skrew them if they won't read the numbers. By the way, if they won't read the numbers, they won't believe the explanations.
Fabulous site.
Excellent work. Thorough analysis.
Anon @ 21:49
Let me get this straight. You're claiming that there are Operation Chaos people who are lying to pollsters to "through" (s/p) off the polls... You're kidding right?
You are aware that your average poll screens roughly 1,000 people... I believe that Rush's entire national audience is about 15M people... Of the 130M General Election Registered Voters, that's 11% of the Nation.
The chances that 11% of North Carolina voters who are also Rush Limbaugh listeners are low... Of those 11%, few, very few would actually act out the way you suggest to "through" (s/p) off a pollster...
Infact they're so few, it's entirely likely that there are the same number of actual republicans lining up to vote for Obama.
Nice fantasy though... It's a good thing Rush released those superdelegates to select Barack when they did; I don't think we could have made it had it not been for Rush.
Next thing you know, this Operation Chaos will suggest for the GOP to "Through" (s/p) the entire election just to let the Dems into office so they can fall on their face in the first 4, make that 8, or even 12 years... that is after all what Democrats did in 2000. You know, allowing Bush to be elected so now we could destroy McCain with Obama...
I think Obama is leaving WV off the list as it presents the biggest ratio of downside risk with respect to opportunity. Let me explain what I mean: it's a small state. 5 EVs. So the pickup isn't that big on the math side. Nor is it a particularly symbolic victory, in the same way that a dead heat in Georgia (imagine an African American campaigning in the heart of the South) or Alaska (the photo ops alone are worth the trip) might be.
Now...
On the other side of the coin, West Virginian voters exhibited an unusually high willingness to not only vote against Obama, but to believe in some of the more scurrilous rumors floating around on the tubes. A great deal of the "man-on-the-street" footage with voters spewing nonsense about Obama-as-Muslim came from that primary. Demographically, it's extremely blue-collar, downscale voters--which leads politicians to pander a bit, which could lead to a Crown Royal or "tank and helmet" moment. Either one of these situations (bad voters on national television, major gaffe on national television) are reason enough to stay away from WV, even if he could win it if everything went right.
There are any number of reasons Obama may have put Georgia on his list even if he does not expect to win the state. They include: 1) money, 2) symbolism, 3) psychological warfare, 4)local advantage and 5) gamblers intuition.
No one should underestimate the potential importance of Atlanta to Obama's map of America.
At the moment, Obama may have the luxury of allowing non-270 factors into his planning. Or letting the other side think that he is doing so.
Investing in Barr states is the equivalent of portfolio diversification for Obama. Every other path to victory for him is defendant on one variable--Obama's popularity. In the event of a Barr surge, Obama would have an avenue to the presidency even if his own popularity wasn't quite sufficient to put him over the top. Being in a position to take advantage of that is just good strategy.
"defendant" should be "dependent," obviously.
tom,
that probably is because Obama has some internal polling results in those states and 538.com has just it´s regressions (most polls are outdated, for example in ND)- and I could imagine that the regressions do not match Obamas polling.
The data presentation and number crunching for polling averages, trend adjustment, 538 regression, and 538 projection are as before impressive.
BUT:
I still say that calling my old home state of ND close, or in the case of ''trend-adjusted'' for Obama by 4.4%, all working with just 2 polls nearly 3 and 4 months old; is a LONG stretch of a projection based on a very small and really old platform.
I stand by my prior assertion:
McCain will win ND. It may not be a landslide (IIRC generally defined as >= 10%), but I believe it will be comfortable.
Remember in November that I said this back in June (I'm sure many who post here will want to throw rocks if somehow I'm wrong (bet I'm not) ).
RE Georgia et al...
Where can I find well-presented state-level data on the turnout-performance of various demographic groups?
That is: I know the conventional wisdom is that the electorate is, historically, disproportionately white, old, and well-off, compared to the populace at large. (Dem's are saved to some extent, as I understand it, by it also being disproportionately female, educated, and unionized). But I'm not sure where to find this measured empirically, either by exit polls or registration rolls. Obviously the campaigns will want this info, and the prospect of changing that makeup is a key Obama strategy.
Is there a convenient place to find this info? Even better: Nate and Sean, do you plan to train your microscopes on this?
@Lorne Guyland (1:08)
Your best bet is probably here:
www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/voting.html
The .pdf report is useful, but doesn't have state-by-state racial voting breakdowns. You can get those off of the "detailed tables" link.
It doesn't have any data on 2006 yet, but it's got tons of information on 1998-2004.
Hey, Nate, it seems to me like there's a possible flaw in your model of comparing demographically similar areas to extrapolate poll numbers. That flaw is, quite simply, that it doesn't account for campaign attention disparities. We saw the results of this pop up in the SD primary when Clinton won when your model predicted a healthy Obama win. Granted, you were handicapped by the fact that the state was also underpolled, but do we know that a similar situation won't arise in the general?
I predict Obama 497, McCain 41.
New Hampshire may be a relatively (for the Northeast) conservative state, but it's hard to see it going GOP when the three states bordering it - VT, MA, ME - are all likely to go for Obama by margins of at least 15 percentages points.
Astonishing to see North Dakota on this list. I guess the moderating effects of both Minnesota and Saskatchewan/Manitoba are FINALLY having an impact there. There's no reason why North Dakota should be as ardently right-wing as states due south.
What are the states making up the 41?
BTW- that is also a horrible prediction- there are a lot of states that are very safely McCain- and unless those +12 or +15 polls are right, and Obama can gain on even those- the very core Republican southern and central states will have no chance of going Obama. Just like the core Democratic states would take an enormous swing to go McCain.
This map also underscores my reasoning for my top four VP picks:
1) Tom Daschle - he probably wouldn't bring in South Dakota, but would help in North Dakota, Montana, and other plains/West/MidWest states
2) Evan Bayh - hugely popular, would almost guarantee Indiana going blue for the first time since 1964
3) Byron Dorgan - same attributes as Daschle, and he would bring in ND
4) Brian Schweitzer - same as Dorgan/Daschle, bring in MT
All four of those men are down-to-earth enough to appeal to the interior swing states, but urbane and intellectual enough to satisfy Obama's coastal supporters.
Nice post Sean!
Great post, but I will offer some advice of a different sort. You should never stretch an image with pixel-accurate sharp graphics like you have in this map, and even when you don't you should still reconsider. The map you've posted looks awful and for what? All of a few extra pixels? Just leave it at its native size or use a map rendered at a larger size, or at least use bicubic interpolation.
Good post. Is there enough data to do at least a super tracker graph on previous elections? Then huge changes in the graph could potentially be correlated with actual political events and big public perception changes. It would be interesting to see if the type of change could be determined to be permanent or short term. Then we'd have a sense of what sorts of stuff could happen to Obama, and what the likely results might be (although that's probably well into the realm of guesswork, it would still be interesting).
An obvious guess about Georgia is that Obama is thinking of Sam Nunn as his running mate.
Re: Georgia on the Obama map
Could the CNN world headquarters possibly be a factor here?
A co-worker of mine just showed me that the website www.obamabayh08.com redirects to Obama's main website. She further informed me that Evan Bayh is a Senator and former governor if Indiana, which is one of Obama's borderline polling states as well as one of his 18 focus states. From what it sounds like, he's quite a popular fellow back home, so if he is tapped as the VP candidate, that's a sure sign that Obama is working to target these swing states.
from pollster.com
POLL: Quinnipiac/WSJ/WaPost Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin
Four surveys conducted by Quinnipiac University for the Wall Street Journal and the Washington Post, fielded June 17-24
Colorado: Obama 49 - McCain 44, n=1,351 likely voters, margin of sampling error of +/- 2.7 percent
Michigan: Obama 48 - McCain 42, n=1,411 likely voters, margin of sampling error of +/- 2.6 percent
Minnesota: Obama 54 - McCain 37, n=1,572 likely voters, margin of sampling error of +/- 2.5 percent
Wisconsin: Obama 52 - McCain 39, n=1,537 likely voters, margin of sampling error of +/- 2.5 percent
-- Mark Blumenthal
June 26, 2008 in Poll Update
This isn't all that related to the actual post, but did anyone do a double take on that stupid caption from the linked Politico article? "If Obama loses in November, the decision to spend widely may be seen as a distraction from the traditional battlegrounds like Ohio." Sure, ok. Here's my suggestion: "If Obama wins a landslide victory in November, the decision to focus on Bush states may be seen as a stroke of political genius." Just as valid! I guess captions writers are pretty married to conventional wisdom.
GA is there for 1) psych, 2) Atlanta is an airline hub so it makes it accessable, 3) using Barr like Perot more psych. He's not going to win GA unless it is a totally blowout.
Of, course the double cross is to be expected. The triple cross is to be anticipated.
As to why the regression model blew it in SD (mine which is a bit different than Nate's because it concentrates on ancestry/ethnicity from Census, also missed): O messed up Sioux Falls/Sioux City and he let it go because he had the nomination sewn up.
I still think the EV distribution chart is messed up. The sometimes too fat red tail doesn't make sense.
Finally, Obama's 18 looks remarkably similar to my BATTLEGROUND discussed in the "definition of Must Win (Technical)" post where I said:
FL, NC, ND, IN, MO, VA, NH, MI, NV, OH, NM, CO, PA, WI, IA, NJ, and CT.
The difference being the politico "scoop" (controlled leak) has GA and AK, while I had NJ and CT.
GA and AK are mostly psychs, but NJ and CT on my list attest to the need to be careful about potential battlegrounds with Italian-American populations. Obama needs to get ahead of curve on that one. When the race tightens, as it will, Obama needs to be sure that NJ and CT are really sewn up because he has made a direct effort there.
Lieberman is going to beat O down in CT and if you look at the polls since 4/26 in NJ, the "trend" is counter to the rest of the polls, the race is tightening. There are demographic reasons I think that should be carefully considered.
Regarding why Georgia. Besides the possible Barr effect previously mentioned and largely not accounted for in Nate's analysis, there's a much simpler reason: Obama did extremely well in Georgia among whites in the Democratic primary. In fact, he even won white males. Georgia (like VA, NC, and FL) is less "southern" than SC, MS, and LA because it has had lots of northern transplants over the last 30+ years.
I'm probably too late in posting here for anyone to read this comment, but there's a simple reason for competing in Georgia: it's competitive.
Kerry did not campaign in Georgia AT ALL, and got 23% of the white vote. If Obama gets that number to 30% -- a real possibility given the extreme lack of enthusiasm here for McCain and the registration efforts among young voters by the Obama campaign -- and if Obama does better among blacks than Kerry did (pretty obvious, huh?), and if Barr even gets 2-3% of the vote, then Obama will win Georgia.
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