I think I'm a pretty smart guy, but every now and then I come across something and say to myself "man, that shit is deep".
This morning, in doing a little bit of remote-term planning for features that we might add to the site in the distant future, I was doing some background research on liberal-conservative scores and other methods of vote classification and stumbled across a website called voteview.com, created by a University of California at San Diego professor named Keith Poole. Voteview uses an extremely rigorous methodology for ordering Senators from most liberal to most conservative which to my mind produces some fairly intuitive results. (Five most liberal senators thus far this year? Russ Feingold, Chris Dodd, Bernie Sanders, Sheldon Whitehose, and Ted Kennedy).
This is how Voteview classifies Senators McCain and Obama over the last four Congresses; for good measure we'll also throw in Senator Clinton:Congress Obama McCain ClintonBy this method, Obama is liberal, but not that liberal. He was the 21st most liberal senator in the 109th Congress and has been the 10th or 11th most liberal thus far in the 110th. The surprising result is John McCain, who rates as the 8th most conservative senator in the 110th Congress, the 2nd most conservative in the 109th, and the 5th or 6th most conservative in the 108th.
107th -- 57/102 22/102
108th -- 96.5/100 21.5/100
109th 21/101 100/101 25/101
110th 10.5/101 94/101 20/101
In the 107th Congress, however, McCain was quite moderate. Voteview doesn't have rankings before the 107th, so I'm not sure whether there was some permanent change in McCain's political philosophy on or around 2003 (perhaps coinciding with the start of the Iraq War) or whether it was his behavior in the 107th that was unusual (perhaps he took some pleasure in being a thorn in President Bush's side after having lost the primary to him). But this is more evidence for the notion that the 2008 version of John McCain is a very different politician than the 2000-2002 version of John McCain.
6.10.2008
Liberal-Conservative Rankings Done Right
@ 8:16 AM
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The main criticism I'd level at it is that it only measures "liberal" in a relative sense within the confines of each separate Congress, I expect even the likes of Sheldon Whitehouse wouldn't come close to European definitions of liberal, say.
@patrick: Woah, wait a sec, now you're not just looking for analysis of American politics, but you want some Davenport Translations across "leagues"? I don't think we're that far along with political statistics. But we can dream, can't we?
I'm also really amused by the attempt to paint Obama as the "most liberal" Senator. Here's the thing: even if you could PROVE that he was "95% liberal," in this election, that's still preferable to having "voted 95% with George W. Bush." The same old name calling just isn't going to work this time, especially with Obama tying McCain to Bush every chance he gets (or that McCain gives him with pointless, dated tactics).
Patrick - you do realize that European definitions of "liberal" mostly put liberal as a category of the center or right, right?
Socialists are on the left in Europe. In some countries, liberals are actually the right wing party; in others, they're somewhere in the middle. American liberals are actually considerably to the left of continental liberals, at least, and probably pretty comparable to British Liberal Democrats.
I think I'm a pretty smart guy, but every now and then I come across something and say to myself "man, that shit is deep".
Which succinctly states my feelings when I first found this site.
Thanks for the link. Good stuff.
I am a conservative, and had a good belly laugh at the classification of McCain as 94/101 conservative.
50-60 is where I would put him. 94 is ludicrous. I'm drowning in that BS.
Another way to look at McCain and Obama is on "party voting." One place to get such information is in the WaPo Congressional Votes database: http://projects.washingtonpost.com/congress/
Also in any given Congress, the mix of issues that come up for vote may affect whether a particular member votes his or her constituency or on some other basis than "long term" ideology or "long term party loyalty." (Not to mention, the legislative body, or the party in Congress, shifts its center over time, even while individual Congress members may shift less.)
Nate Silver: "I'm not sure whether there was some permanent change in McCain's political philosophy on or around 2003 (perhaps coinciding with the start of the Iraq War) or whether it was his behavior in the 107th that was unusual..."
Another factor may be that McCain was considering a VP run with Kerry (before the idea was scotched after the 2004 primaries). He may have been reaching across the aisle more at the time, in preparation for that possibility.
.
Obama, Clinton,and McCain have been on the trail a lot, and missed many votes. I spot two questions about how that affects their 110th rankings. First, how are the missed votes handled? Second, is there a pattern to which votes they did come back for? I'd guess they came back for high-profile, highly-polarized votes where they had a shot at changing the outcome. That might push them to the ends of the spectrum...
Thunderpig,
You don't appear to be looking at what this study is measuring. It's rating McCain on his recent voting record. He's taken the "Republican position", whatever it may be, more consistently than 93/100 Senators, but less consistently than 6/100 Senators, in the most recent congress.
If you don't think that's meaningful, that's fine, but it's not as if the results are at all biased. Moreover, these results:
- can be used to demonstrate McCain's shift to "maverick" positions in 2001-2004, and his return to a more "faithful" voting pattern after that
- can be used to demonstrate the rise in polarization and partisanship in the last 40 years
So, you can argue that this doesn't say everything about a candidate, and you'd be right, but it is meaningful.
For 110th Congress, Obama's party support score (% of votes in which he voted with the majority of members from his own party) was 96.5%, which is mighty high, though he missed more than 200 votes.
For the same Congress, McCain's party score was 88.3% (then again Mitch McConnell was tops for the "R's" at 91.6%). Though McCain missed more than 300 votes.
Sorry for the serial posting, but should have also pointed out that in 110th Congress, McCain's party voting score was higher than that of Pat Roberts, Kit Bond, Orren Hatch, James Imhofe, and Charles Grassley.
That does not make him a "maverick".
jgabriel,
I think the contemplation of the crossover VP run was more of an effect than a cause of the "maverick" stances. But once he decided he was going to make a run in 2008, he became a faithful Bush Republican again.
I'm willing to believe McCain is more of a moderate on a handful of issues like immigration, and possibly taxes and global warming. He's pulled back towards his party center on those positions of late, and of course he's always been a social conservative and foreign policy hawk.
sporcupine,
Given my quick read of the algorithm, it appears that the approach would simply ignore those candidates in votes where they don't show up.
As far as high profile votes go, it would be nice to weight those more heavily, but it's an awfully subjective thing to try to introduce.
Obama actually missed one of the most high-profile votes of this congress: the question of whether to classify the Iranian Rev. Guard as a terrorist organization. He did state his opposition publicly, but I'm pretty sure he missed the actual official vote. For the record, Clinton voted yes - I'd guess the algorithm classified this as an "error" (no offhand editorializing intended).
Poole produced a set of rankings for the 105th and 106th congress to examine the shifts for Lieberman and McCain. In the 105th, McCain was in the middle of the party; in the 106th, McCain shifted towards the center of the entire spectrum.
http://voteview.com/SEN105107.htm
I'm having a difficult time believing that Ron Paul is the second-most conservative member of the House.
As a result, I'm having a difficult time buying into these rankings.
There's a simple explanation for his more moderate voting record: he was furious at Dubya for what Rove and pals did to him in the SC primary in 2000. he felt betrayed by his own party. then, as his political ego (cindy) saw an opening, he ran as far right as he could to line himself up for this nomination. and now, he's trying to do an about-face toward his pre-2002 positions. the press and obama won't let him get away with it.
John--
American liberals equivalent to Brit Liberal Dems? I find that hard to believe. I think all but perhaps the most left-leaning 1% of Congress would be far more at home with Labour than with the Liberal Dems. The Lib Dems want to establish total equality for gays in marriage and adoption, abolish University tuition, raise the top tax rate to 50%, and allow more cooperation between the UK and Europe and the UN in economics, law enforcement, and military action.
Now, I'll admit, many American liberal politicians may agree with similar proposals in their heart, but they would *never dare* come out and actually propose these things.
djl--
Really? The guy who wants to abolish the Department of Education? You have trouble believing that guy's so conservative?
I wonder about the missed votes too, especially since with other metrics this seems to make the presidential candidates more extreme at the time when the most people are looking.
I would like to see a system that combines the hard voting data that this system uses along with a more perception-based ranking like what
electoral vote came up with. So if you could take the voteview and mix in the rankings of the liberal interest groups as well as the conservative interest groups maybe you'd have something?
Anyway.. keep up the great work.
Yeah, absolutely.
It's difficult to believe that someone who is adamantly opposed to the Patriot Act and the War on Drugs, who believes states should be allowed to regulate abortion, who opposes the federal death penalty, is the second-most conservative member of the House.
I mean, the guy's all but been asked to leave the Republican Party. Not exactly a textbook conservative.
Just as an aside, we political scientists nearly always use Keith Poole's metric these days. It's pretty well supported.
jpack,
Thanks for posting the link to the electoral-vote.com study. That had been my go-to source for debunking anyone spouting the "most liberal senator!!!" talking point. They also did a comparable study where conservative groups ranked the senators by how conservative they were here:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Comparison/Maps/Apr14.html
Interestingly, conservative groups don't view McCain as all that conservative.
djl--
The problem is, these rankings are based on votes--and the issues where Paul differs from other Republicans are unlikely to ever come up for a vote.
I wouldn't say that the Liberal Dems are consistently to the left of Labour at all. Certainly, they were to the right of Labour until about fifteen years ago, and they've not actually moved. They tend to be more environmentalist and more culturally liberal than Labour, and more attuned to civil liberties. But they've always been uncomfortable with leftist economics/socialism, while Labour still has a serious faction that is genuinely socialist, which the Democrats certainly don't have in the US.
And bringing up issues very specific to British politics is misleading. British universities were free until a couple of years ago, and even know the fees that are charged are far less than even the most reasonable public university charges to in-state students in the US.
Generally speaking, where they are comparable the policies advocated by the Liberal Democrats are fairly analogous to those advocated by the liberal wing of the Democratic Party. The Liberal Democrats are also a middle class, intelligentsia type party, which is probably also similar to the kind of "wine track" liberal Democrats I was thinking of when I made my comparison.
Ignoring party labels, I'd say that the policies advocated by the Liberal Democrats, where they are comparable to US policies, are ones that very few people who would identify themselves as "liberal" in this country would really disagree with, even if they might accept that some aspects of its program are impracticable here. And this is a result of the Liberal Democrats moving to the left over the last few years. In the 80s and early 90s, the comparison is likely more apt.
They specifically look at the presidential candidates here, across time and in comparison to other individuals.
To second Arbitrista's post, Poole and his colleagues' database sets the standard. They have produced some interesting analyses as well on legislative polarization and other matters.
For example, see the links on these pages:
http://www.voteview.com/dwnomin.htm
http://polarizedamerica.com/
Long time lurker/visitor to the site, first time poster, in response to the poster that had trouble believing Ron Paul was the 2nd most conservative senator? That guy is so conservative, he makes Pat Buchanan look like Ted Kennedy. I'd say Ron Paul is definitely on the libertarian side of the Republican party, who is in favor of just about no federal government involvment in....just about anything.
I think McCain's shift to the right had to do with two things.
1. He was fighting to win the Republican primary.
2. He is a hawk and a greater proportion of votes were on the war.
3. He (and Obama and the other contenders), missed a large number of votes due to campaigning. Which votes would be worth voting on? Important ones, like the vote for speaker or the budget, where both would be expected to vote the party line.
Analysis of candidate ideology in or just before an election year is rarely going to produce coherent results.
john--
You say: "And bringing up issues very specific to British politics is misleading."
But this is, more or less, exactly my point: Even the theoretically (if no longer in practice) "centrist" wing of the British parliament is significantly to the left of what the American left can comfortably endorse. The UK is simply far more left-leaning than the US in most ways. I'm looking at this in real terms--the fact the Lib Dems would like a top-tier tax rate nearly double the one in the States--as opposed to relative terms. The Lib Dems aren't far to the left of the UK center, but they're certainly far to the left of the US center.
Labour, however, is iffier, I think. Yes, they may be more socialist in some ways than the Lib Dems (the people in the party, if not the party's platform), but both are vastly more left-wing than the US in any case. But socially, Labour fits much more with the US left's moderately liberal policies, and in some ways (obviously) even with the US right in terms of national security, the "war on terror", etc. at the expe3nse of civil liberties.
What also can be done is to look before the 107th. The data are there in a different format.
Nate --
These are the scores from the 1st Congress to the present day.
http://voteview.ucsd.edu/dwnomin.htm
Poblano,
This is my first comment, your website is fantastic. I just finished a graduate degree in political science, with a focus on American politics, so I've been pretty deep in the American political science literature.
Let me say that Poole-Rosenthal "VoteView" scores are today considered, academically, the best measure of legislative ideology around. These guys are mathematical brainiacs and they use factor loading methods and all kinds of complicated equations to figure out what "right" and "left" are all the way back to the very first Congress. They have huge credibility among researchers who study this sort of thing.
You can see scores before the 107th here, in fact every House and Senate member that ever has served in American history has been rated -- http://voteview.com/dwnomin.htm. Just use the column with the first-dimension coordinates. This captures the vast majority of ideological variance today.
The variance between Poole-Rosenthal and other measures of ideology is that Poole-Rosenthal "voteview" counts EVERY SINGLE roll call vote. Other "interest group" scores cherry pick certain votes they see to be important to their cause. This doesn't make their measures less important or somehow "wrong; it just makes their scope much more narrow than Poole-Rosenthal.
Keep up the great work -- your website satisfies both the practical and academic political junkie in me.
"he's trying to do an about-face toward his pre-2002 positions. the press and obama won't let him get away with it."
That's a laugh. What evidence have you seen to date that the press is not going to let him get away with it?
If McCain is going to be called out at all, Obama is going to have to do it himself.
@Stephen & @djl
The problem is not that issues where Paul differs from other Republicans do not come up for votes. The problem is that the one-dimensional OC score is one-dimensional, while "conservative" doesn't mean just one thing. While Paul is extremely conservative in some senses, he is not particularly conservative in others. Unfortunately, the one-dimensional analysis can't make that distinction, with the result that Paul ends up ranked as very conservative even though he isn't a model Conservative or GOP member.
What is needed is a higher-dimensional analysis, which Poole et al have done in the two-dimensional DW-NOMINATE analysis, and are working on for higher-dimensional OC analysis. If you look at the DW-NOMINATE data (which also cover every Congress since the First), you will find that in the 110th Congress, Paul ranks at one extreme on one axis while being much closer to the center on the other.
(You'll also find that McCain has shifted voting positions over the past few Congresses more than any other Senator, to the point where his recent record is nothing like it was when he made his maverick reputation.)
I don't have any qualms about improving one's methodology for analyzing cast votes. But that's all it is - an analysis of cast votes. It's important, but it's not everything.
I think people are fairly rational in giving some weight, in assigning an individual an "ideology", to such issues as rhetoric, personal background, and overall (not just recent) voting history. All of this must be part of McCain's image, and properly so.
McCain's image is a construct that diverges wildly from his voting record.
McCain does try to manage his image as a maverick but in the end often votes with his commander in chief. Take for example the "holdout" on the 2006 military commissions act (MCA) votes that he and Graham and Warner apparently did in order to force the admin to confirm with Geneva Conventions on interrogrations/torture. Big showdown, and ultimately a great photo opportunity with Bush and McCain. But in the end what? McCain signed off on an act that didn't have any teeth on it on the interrogations aspect, and also took the federal courts out of the appeals process (hasn't been tested yet).
In short, on a practical level, after a big show, he and Graham and Warner caved. And the DOJ reserves the right to authorize harsh interrogations to this day.
We have been using Poole and Rosenthals DW-nominate scores for close to a decade now in political science.
They have been assessed and reassessed for quite a while...and they have stood up. Nothing out there is better.
DW-Nominate also includes scores on the second dimension as well. There is debate about what this dimension measures, but perhaps some of the issues raised above could be accounted for by the fact that they don't fit exactly into a simple left-right dimension (1st dimension DW-Nominate).
Please forgive my naivety, but I often get lost in the definitions of "liberal" and "conservative". Can I take the extreme liberal position to be a command economy socialist system and the extreme conservative to be laze-faire libertarianism?
I often find these discussion about liberalness and conservativeness more an opportunity to associate one's opponent with a generic label meant to incite repulsion as opposed to an attempt to succinctly describe a one's political philosophy.
Put another way, so what? What does such a measure tell us? What are the implications?
It's difficult for me not to see this as a meta-discussion designed to serve our personal need to establish group identity/pride, to create an opponent "other", and establish a framework for exclusion, rather than to find intellectual allies for the purpose of forwarding a political agenda.
FYI, here is another website I ran across a couple weeks ago, that ranks senators on their liberal-ness:
http://downwithtyranny.blogspot.com/2008/05/obama-is-most-liberal-senator-big.html
In their rankings, Obama comes out in 40th place for the last year, and 24th place for his entire senate history.
This is the site that I like to point people towards who spout out the oft-debunked claim that Obama is some ultra-liberal radical.
Please forgive my naivety, but I often get lost in the definitions of "liberal" and "conservative". Can I take the extreme liberal position to be a command economy socialist system and the extreme conservative to be laze-faire libertarianism?
Well, in this context, there's really no effort to define the meanings. It's an effort to sort out the voting blocks and figure out who breaks ranks with those voting blocks more often.
To specifically rebut your suggestion, it's hard to equate libertarianism with spending $150B on an Iraq war funding bill, or voting to expand federal wiretapping powers.
Put another way, so what? What does such a measure tell us? What are the implications?
Well, it shows us who's been loyal to the mainline policies of this particular administration. It also shows us, by virtue of the very strong linear correlation of the groupings, that most members of Congress actually can be fairly accurately described along a single linear spectrum.
Again, what that spetrum really represents is sort of murky, as it reflects a whole set of policies associated with the agendas of the parties. But the fact that the members of congress can be described on a single spectrum, and that they are quite polarized, says something meaningful about the nature of modern politics.
Compare this to congress during the pre-civil war era or during the civil rights struggle, when there were distinctly different coalitions depending on the issue.
It's difficult for me not to see this as a meta-discussion designed to serve our personal need to establish group identity/pride, to create an opponent "other", and establish a framework for exclusion, rather than to find intellectual allies for the purpose of forwarding a political agenda.
I see this study more as descriptive of this phenomenon, as it operates in modern politics, as oppose to driving or encouraging that way of thinking.
I blogged on Obama/McCain/Clinton VoteView analysis months ago over at big orange (daily kos).
I believe if you look McCain's entire record, and his ratings from conservative e.g., ACU) and liberal groups (ADA), I think you will find that his one Maverick 107th session is the outlier, and that he was a consistent reliable extreme conservative on all the standard issues (cut taxes for the rich, more military spending, anti-choice, etc.) for the rest of his congressional career, before and after. He had a brief few "maverick" votes, against the Bush tax cuts (for the conservative reason that there were not also enough program cuts to pay for them), Immigration (for the conservative/coporate reason that big Farma and Corps. needed cheap dominantable non-union labor) and McCain Feingold. Those are the limited votes, in a limited time frame right after 2000 election from which this one outlier analysis comes from.
It is not that he is more conservative and hewing to party line recently in run-up to 2008nomination and election, but a return to what he always was before that one brief period. He votes conservative and republican. His personality and style may be rough and different around the edges. But as a matter of policy, he is a consistent very conservative reppublican, going way back
Nate,
I'm interested in what you'll have to say about this stuff in the future, but for the present you should have a look at Clinton, Jackman, & Rivers "The Statistical Analysis of Roll Call Data" in the American Political Science Review from 2004. The primary issue is methodological clarity. CJR have a much more straightforward technique (using Bayesian simulation) than any of Poole and Rosenthal's iterations of NOMINATE, implementations of which are all pretty kludgy.
Record going further back suggests that McCain is consistent relibalbe conservative Repulbican. See an example of an amateur trying to do such an analysis:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/5/27/165427/978/44/523729
Based on ADA and ACU annual scorecards:
http://www.adaction.org/pages/media/voting-records.php
http://www.acuratings.org/
Also:
http://www.conservative.org/archive2/other.asp
"By this method, Obama is liberal, but not that liberal." Don't think of the ranking as what is important, but who is to his left and who is to his right? The people to Obama's left (and near him) are so liberal they would never get elected president. Obama is quite liberal when we consider his compatriots way over on the edge (Kennedy, Feingold, etc.).
Anonymous @ 3:59
If I remember correctly Kennedy, Feingold, etc. aren't really that close to Obama. I think Obama was tied with Joe Biden. Would Biden never get elected president because he's too liberal?
DW-NOMINATE 1st-dimension scores very close to Obama (-0.51):
Dodd -0.46
Akaka -0.51
Mikulski -0.48
Cardin -0.48
Kennedy -0.56
Kerry -0.50
Levin -0.51
Stabenow -0.47
Reid -0.46
Clinton -0.50
Schumer -0.47
Reed -0.54
The notion that Obama is too liberal to be elected President is nonsense.
Progressive Punch's scoring function is also interesting: http://progressivepunch.com
People looking askance at Ron Paul's placing should note the relatively large classification error; higher than any other Member of Congress except the also-unorthodox Walter Jones. Basically, they don't fall along the one-dimensional spectrum that otherwise explains the positions of American politicians since the Civil Rights movement very well.
Nate--thrilled to know it was you--BP has long been a gave of mine. But even more thrilling is you found Dr. Poole's work. I refer to it all the time; it is unique in its
comprehensiveness and verifiable methodology. The worst thing I can say is that he has Gordon Smith as the most
moderate Gop, which really hurts the message to oust him.
I rely on Poole; your seal of approval is high validation.
Very interesting, and nice to see cross-fertilization from baseball to politics--it's usually the other way around.
My quick look at Poole's method does bring up a concern, though. He uses all votes. As many people have noted, that makes it a very neutral and repeatable measure. But, at least in the House, there are many votes that are simply procedural--that is whether Democrats will control what happens next on the floor or Republicans. So it's not just ideology that he's measuring, but also party loyalty, and it's not clear this gives you a clear signal of idealogical division, which is a somewhat different thing.
In fact, when members of the majority vote against they're party on procedural votes, it's normally under agreement--not so many will do it that the measure fails, but as many as possible will so that they can demonstrate distance from their party when campaigning back home. That's voting with an awareness of how their voting record looks, and demonstrates how voting is not always tied to ideology. One could hope that non-ideological biases would be evenly distributed and average out, but I'm sure that's not the case. It would be interesting to work out what the other major factors affecting voting behavior are.
That said--it's a great, unbiased method, and has tremendous value.
Interesting but McCain's problem with the republicans isn't that he disagrees with them but that in the past has not talked to them and showed them the middle finger.
Immigration was the only popular card republicans had in this election and Obama is now using it against them.
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