This is actually somewhat helpful:
About seven in 10 in both states called Obama honest and trustworthy. Nearly as many said that about Clinton in South Dakota but barely half in Montana called her honest and trustworthy.
The exit polls have been asking this question since Mississippi. Here's what those numbers looked like in the other states:
State Clinton Obama Honesty Gap MarginIf we regress the final margin on the "honesty gap" -- the difference in the number of voters who think each candidate is honest and trustworthy -- we come up with a nearly linear relationship. That is, this question is a pretty reasonable predictor of the final margin.
MS 49 70 O +21 O +24
PA 58 67 O +9 C +9
IN 54 67 O +13 C +1
NC 49 71 O +22 O +15
WV 64 43 C +21 C +41
KY 64 47 C +17 C +36
OR 51 77 O +26 O +18
SD 68 70 O +2 ???
MT 52 70 O +18 ???
In this case, I have it predicting a 12-point win for Clinton in South Dakota and a 10-point win for Obama in Montana. However, the South Dakota result is a bit unusual in that it's the first state where substantial majorities think both candidates are honest and trustworthy. South Dakotans like both their Dems; if they wind up picking Clinton tonight, it should not really be read as some kind of indictment of Obama.
We can perform the same calculation on the "satisfied if ____ wins the nomination" question, which the exit polls have been tracking for a little longer:
Satisfied if [Clinton/Obama] wins nomination?Performing the same regression analysis on this data works out to a Clinton lead of 3 points in South Dakota.
State Clinton Obama Satisfied Gap Margin
OH 73 66 C +7 C +8
TX 70 66 C +4 C +4
VT 70 82 O +12 O +21
RI 75 63 C +12 C +18
MS 58 69 O +11 O +24
PA 73 64 C +9 C +9
IN 67 66 C +1 O +1
NC 63 69 O +6 O +15
WV 74 42 C +32 C +41
KY 76 43 C +34 C +36
OR 70 79 O +9 O +18
SD 75 70 C +5 ???
22 comments
Do a regression on "late deciders". I think that would have a more logical direct relationship on actual voting results.
18-29 year olds: 65-35 Obama
65+ voters: 65-35 Clinton
Economy (#1) voters: 58-42 Clinton
Iraq (#2) voters: 61-39 Obama
From this, I'm guessing a Clinton edge, but perhaps just by single digits.
InTrade is now trading in favor of Clinton at 95-5 for SD. Most of the fall happened in last hour or so.
Somebody knows something from the exits
My strong intuition is that the exit polls show Clinton something like 6 points ahead in South Dakota.
Somebody knows something from the exits on Intrade... or somebody is reading this site and betting appropriately.
Based on my comment in the other thread about 55% of all voters wanting Hillary to be VP and 40% of Obama supporters wanting that, I surmised that since it's likely that at least 70% of Hillary supporters would want her to be VP, so I'd hoped for an Obama win...but it's not looking that way from the other exit polls.
Apparently Hillary supporters don't want her to be VP in large numbers. Either they're petty or they still really think she could still win the nomination itself.
Hillary leads 60-40 among non-college educated whites. Obama wins College whites 53-47.
Looks like a Clinton win.
Fox posted the gender numbers too and they point to a Clinton win of 9-10 points. These numbers do so as well.
Actually, I should say that they point to a Clinton lead in the *exit polls* of 9-10 points.
The questions are:
A) Did they remember to exit poll the reservations. Look at Johnson vs Thune a few years back.
B) Early voting. How many? Obama pushes the early vote pretty well.
Nate, have you thought about what to do with the site when Obama has it clinched, or will you keep it pretty much the same?
My standard rectum based model says that it's going to be a Clinton win by 4. I really don't trust exit polls. And if it's that close, poor sampling can make it a tossup.
I think it was Texas where the gender based exit polls said clinton by 8-10 and it ended up being about 4.
I think I'm officially resigned to Clinton as VP. She's a pretty damn tenacious candidate, and in the Cheney mode she'll make a good attack dog.
RE: Exit polling the reservation.
Good point. Wasn't that the deciding factor in Stephanie Herseth's initial victory several years back?
What Hillary should say tonight - probably her best speech ever.
http://digg.com/2008_us_elections/What_Hillary_Clinton_Should_Say_Tonight
Betfair (the betting exchange) still has Clinton at 1.08 (2/25) which implies that punters aren't convinced yet - a win of more than 3% would normally be around 1.03, which implies they think she's won SD but not by much, if the behaviour before the other primaries is anything to go by.
Nitpick correction for the Anally Impaired:
The Indiana Margin entry in the "Satisfied if..." table should read "C +1".
Thank you for your attention to this matter; I can go back to obsessively reorganizing my record collection now...
You were wrong again!!!!!
Give it up.
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