I've alluded a couple of times to the fact that Barack Obama's problems in Appalachia, which had seemed to be so pervasive before, suddenly seem to have righted themselves. While he is not running as strong as Hillary Clinton probably would in the region, his numbers now look fairly normal for a non-Southern Democrat.
Two purely Appalachian states have had polling released since the end of the primary campaign. Those are Arkansas, where Rasmussen showed Obama with a 15-point improvement, and Kentucky, where SurveyUSA showed him cutting his deficit from 24 points to 12.
We can also look at the before and after versions of Quinnipiac's Swing State polling, concentrating on Obama's numbers in Southern Ohio and in Southwest and Central Pennsylvania, which are usually classified as part of the Appalachia. Obama's numbers have improved significantly in those regions too:Region May June Change
Southeast OH -20 -15 +5
Southwest OH -14 +3 +17
Southwest PA -13 +2 +15
Central PA -14 TIE +14
Arkansas -24 -9 +15
Kentucky -24 -12 +12
=============================================
AVERAGE -18.2 -5.2 +13.0
Beyond Ohio and Pennsylvania, this could have implications in West Virginia, where Rasmussen had him trailing John McCain by 8 points just before the primaries concluded. If he gets the same 10+ point bounce in West Virginia that he has gotten elsewhere in the region, the state suddenly looks extremely competitive -- which is why our model is inferring that West Virginia should be a pale shade of pink rather than a ruby red.
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
Does Obama still have an Appalachia Problem?
-- Nate Silver at 6:55 PM
Labels: demographics, kentucky, ohio, pennsylvania, west virginia
67 comments
I mentioned this in the Afternoon Polling Update thread but no part of Arkansas is in Appalachia. Arkansas wasn't included in the thirteen states within ARC.
Obama Pollster Pimp O-P-P
what my homies are callin me
i can turn red states into blue
with regression analysis version 2
jed jethro & ellie may
i got m voting obama's way
grannie clampet may be gone
chi-town politics will right that wrong
bitter clingers guns and religion
vote for obama there is no division
538 EV that's my goal
everybody is gonna vote for o-bomb-o
This is getting ridiculous.
(Ridiculously awesome that is)
Obama's appalling appalachian, er, apple problem (or was it Appalachia's problem with him?)was just one of a series of phoney primary season arguments. Like some people wanted to believe that some people voted for Hillary over Obama not because they preferred her or merely because they had heard of her and not him but because everyone in that part of the world was an unreconstructed, unmitigated racist. Racism is likely to be a small percentage of every community's population - so e.g. California just as much or as little as Kentucky - and not tied to a particular street, town, city, state, region, country or even race. I think the media went hunting for weirdos in Appalachia which would have given a false impression of the natives' feelings towards Obama there.
Living in Ohio it is well known across the state that Southwest Ohio is Republican Country, hell even Hamilton County, home to Cincinnati, votes Republican quite a bit. Therefore it's hard for me to believe Obama is doing that well in that area of the state.. Perhaps it was just a bad selection of people to poll or what have you.
www.MVRed.com
Show's pretty much over. McCain is going to have a hard time raising money when donors can see he is going to lose. Which makes it even more likely he will lose, etc.
Exciting for history but sad in terms of policy, given that Obama's commitment to free trade is questionable and his commitment to appointing deferent judges (who don't put a thumb on the scale for [insert oppressed group here]) is even more questionable.
But happy news in terms of policy, if you don't happen to think that 700 year-old rights should disappear.
I would second what Anon said in reply to Brian Dell except I would replace the words '700-year-old voting rights' - with 'our beautiful planet, Earth,'
I think your West Virginia prediction is where your method is really going to get interesting. It will be fun to see new polls come out there to see if they follow what your system expects.
McCain must feel like he just entered the Twilight Zone. Everything used to look manageable for him. Like this might actually be a close election. He might want to give things a couple of weeks to settle down, but after that, if things still look like they do now... I can't see how he can't completely change his current strategy if he wants to have a chance. Forget about Michigan and Minnesota - he is going to have to start playing full-time defense in Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. That might make an interesting blog article for you - if you were McCain, what would your strategy be right now?
Agreed on the planet, Asmodeus... but I didn't even mean voting rights (although those matter a lot, too). I was thinking more about the right not to be thrown in jail forever without ever being told why, or given the chance to defend yourself in court. Funny that that was a no-brainer in the 13th century, but seems a tough one in the 21st century!
Agree you shouldn't confuse Arkansas with Appalachia. It may be Dogpatch but it's still not in them mountains.
McCain Trolls !
get some Kool-aid
its going to get ugly
lol
Daliant said:
"That might make an interesting blog article for you - if you were McCain, what would your strategy be right now?"
I think over the last few days we've seen what his strategy is going to be - attack, attack, attack. So much for a high-minded campaign.
If this is what it's turning out to be...this may be a big landslide. I've been saying it's going to be a landslide because of my bias views and the state of discontent in the nation, but now we have some stats!
Obama 08!
Right you are, Mr Anon: I added the word 'voting' without noticing. Knew what you meant. Remember, though: Denmark's a prison/Then is the world one ! (Hamlet ActII Scene II)
I'm intrigued that central Pennsylvania shows up as a "TIE" right now; this polling was done a month after Penn State, Bucknell, and Juniata (among several others) let out for the summer. The students will be back for November.
Offtopic comment - Hi Nate, I'd love to hear your take on the Politico story today that speculates Obama could win the pop vote and lose the electoral college.
The 538 regression giving Obama a lead of 1.7 in WV, with the overall projection being a McCain lead of only 1.1, is striking to me. I'll wait to see a poll, but if it's inline with this, I'll definitely be a believer, Nate.
Offtopic comment - Hi Nate, I'd love to hear your take on the Politico story today that speculates Obama could win the pop vote and lose the electoral college.
He wrote an earlier article on this issue though may have an update now. (You can find link to the article if you go to heading "electoral math" in left column of this page.)
See here:
"Saturday, June 7, 2008
How the Electoral College Hurts the GOP
There's been some discussion recently about the possibility that Barack Obama wins the popular vote and loses the electoral college; see Mark Ambinder for a pretty good articulation thereof. However, our simulation model thinks that this is actually a bigger worry for John McCain. . . ."
Arkansas is not in Appalachia.