CNN's new national poll ran versions both with and without third-party candidates. Obama performs one point better in the version with third-party candidates than without, leading McCain by 4 points rather than 3.
This would not be surprising if most of the third party vote were going to Bob Barr. But in fact, it's Ralph Nader who is picking up most of those votes. He polls at 6 percent in this survey to Barr's 2 percent.
Obama McCain Nader Barr D/K
No Third Party 49 46 -- -- 5
w/Third Party 47 43 6 2 2
Change -2 -3 +6 +2 -3The conventional wisdom, of course, is that Nader takes votes away from the Democrat. Indeed, I suspect that most of his 6 percent comes from Democratic voters. But I suspect that it's coming from a particular kind of Democratic voter: disgruntled Hillary Clinton supporters. Some of those folks are not yet ready to "endorse" Barack Obama. But they might also have significant reservations about voting for John McCain. Ralph Nader (and Bob Barr) provide for something of a soft landing. Even Larry C. Johnson, the seemingly chemically imbalanced former CIA agent behind the anti-Obama conspiracist website No Quarter, yesterday told his truthers that he would be voting for Bob Barr.By the time the Obama campaign has finished saturating the airwaves in November, it will probably have succeeded in convincing almost all of its base that John McCain is an unacceptable alternative. As some of those voters might still not be ready to vote for Obama, the presence of Nader's name on the ballot might be as helpful to Obama as it is harmful.
56 comments
In how many states will Nader be on the ballot, though? Barr will probably get on most state ballots since he has the Libertarian party behind him, but Nader is not the Green party nominee this time around. How many ballots will he ultimately be on, I wonder?
Wow. I literally had the exact same thought just the other day.
Don't these polls tend to drastically overestimate the number of third party voters out there?
@14:39. Yes, there is some history of polling tending to overstate the third party vote. That's why many pollsters prefer not to include those candidates even where they are on the ballot.
Nader was on 40 states ballots in 2004 without being the Green Party candidate. He seems more organized this year (or at least he knows more about how one can be burned by rules designed to keep non Dem/Rep off the ballot), so I expect that state ballot access number will improve this time.
BTW, I wouldn't have voted for Clinton, Hillary or McCain, though I would have voted for some others that were in the Dem/Rep debates. But I'll be voting for Nader.
Calling someone "seemingly chemically imbalanced" and providing a link that doesn't come anywhere near to supporting that claim is pretty low. At worst he is repeating misinformation which he believes to be true.
Calling chemically inbalanced is actually being kind.
I call him a repulsive racist scumbag SoB. His website is a disgrace to our party. Read it and you shall see.
Anon: "At worst" he is knowingly inventing stories that prey on racial atavism in order influence a presidential election. At best, he is repeating misinformation which he believes to be true.
You Americans are obsessed with the idea that third party candidates take away from your favourite party (I recall a similar debate when we discussed the impact of a Clinton independent run).
Look at the exit polls in 2000...
Of Nader's supporters, 39% had voted for Clinton in 1996, 13% had voted for Dole. So Nader's net drag on the Dems was about .61% of the vote - probably a smaller effect than say, the weather (so sure, you can say he might have flipped Florida for Gore, but there are a bajillion other things that could have done the same).
What about by party ID?
Independent: 58%
Democrat: 28%
Republican: 13%
So in this case, Nader's net impact is more like .4%.
Nader has historically drawn most of his support from voters unlikely to support either the Republicans or Democrats. I agree with Nate that he probably helps Obama by giving angry Clinton supporters a second home.
@3:02. I'm sorry, but responding to an inquiry from a respected and relatively non-partisan blogger/journalist with the phrase "fuck off" is not something that a person with a healthy state of mind would do. And I don't think it can be taken for granted that Johnson actually believes half of what he writes.
The polling with third party candidates confirmed my belief that its benefits Obama more than McCain. I would like to see more polling in the future that includes third party candidates in state polls instead of a generic national ballot.
My guess is that Barr will do well in states that have more of a libertarian streak. This should help Obama immensely in the western states that are in play such as NH, CO, NM, and NV and possibly even MT and ND.
Nader did the best in tradionally safe and lean Democratic states such as Oregon and Washington, so I think third party votes are unlikely to affect Obama as much as they will affect McCain.
Yeah, no way Nader gets anywhere near 6% when it's all said and done. What'd he get last time, like 0.5%?
Barr getting 2% I can see.
I'm curious as to why CNN left off Baldwin (Constitution) and McKinney (Green). All four of these minor parties should be on ballots in 25+ states.
I love the idea of a Nader candidacy actually helping the Dems - that's the true light saber biz right there, yo.
"You Americans are obsessed with the idea that third party candidates take away from your favourite party"
While there were other factors of course, there is no question that if Ralph Nader had not been on the ballot in Florida in 2000, Al Gore would have been elected president.
So perhaps you can understand why some of us are a little touchy about it.
This seems like the definition of "not statistically significant." You can't make this kind of minute distinction based on a survey with a +/-4.5% margin of error, especially about very small subgroups like Barr and Nader voters.
hoser2hoosier - The united states uses an electoral vote system. Sure, Nader probably only cost gore somewhere from 500,000 to 1,000,000 votes nationally, but he certainly cost him Florida, which is all he needed. Possibly New Mexico as well, which could have tipped the election.
Todays' Rasmussen report daily tracking poll, has Obama leading McCain by 8 points.
Mac Z meant New Hampshire. New Mexico went to Gore. But in NH the Bush-Gore gap was smaller than the number of votes for Nader.
NEW S.C. Poll by Rasmussen:
O 39, M 48, Other 6. Date 6/5.
Obama's favorables: 49%.
Is a November outcome of O 48, M 48, Other 4 possible? Barr will be on the ballot, according to lp.org. Obama has built a great organization there...
When conservative voters get to know about Bob Barr they will reject that repulsive hypocrite like the voters of GA did who tossed him out of office.
Though Barr has railed against Roe v. Wade for decades, it was revealed that he paid for his second wife to get an abortion, even driving her to the clinic (apparently so he would not have to pay child support once he married his then-mistress who became his third wife).
He spoke to a white supremacist group even though he appears to be part black (something he gets furious at when reporters ask him about it). Check out his photos in which he looks like Jeremiah Wright's skinny brother.
There is a second group of voters who will vote Nader over the other three which happens to overlap the disgruntled Clinton supporter vote but isn't necessarily the same beast. That group is the racist democrat faction.
Though they tended to vote Clinton in the primaries they were really voting anti-Obama. The result is that Obama doesn't get their vote no matter what, but if Obama campaigns well and shows McCain to be significantly problematic, then neither will McCain and so this might end up finally being a huge year for third parties. A good thing ironically coming from something as horrible as racism.
The numbers are way too close on this poll to draw any firm conclusions. I'm still extremely skeptical that Nader will be good for Obama, although I do have high hopes that Barr can draw off some disaffected Republicans. Since Nader performed so poorly last time, I can't imagine he'll be a factor this year; certainly no where near as strong as 6%.
The numbers are way too close on this poll to draw any firm conclusions. I'm still extremely skeptical that Nader will be good for Obama, although I do have high hopes that Barr can draw off some disaffected Republicans. Since Nader performed so poorly last time, I can't imagine he'll be a factor this year; certainly no where near as strong as 6%.
Nate,
Please delete "Bob Barr Sinister" post ASAP! Such racist crap belongs on Power Line or other wingnut blogs.
I agree strongly with Joshua's comment--one poll with a 4.5% margin of error showing a 1% advantage for Sen. Obama with Ralph Nader on the ballot is not statistically relevant and should not be considered evidence of anything.
Your analysis is still interesting and plausible (in spite of the flimsy accompanying evidence). But nonetheless, it still seems to me more plausible that disaffected Clinton voters who did not have such an option for a "soft landing" would eventually come to a more cool-headed appraisal of the policy differences between Sens. Obama and McCain and disproportionately side with the former.
If Clinton had taken the nomination from Obama, I would have voted for Bob Barr.
I couldn't stand Bush or Kerry in 2004...I voted for Michael Badnarik.
I saw Nader on the street this week in DC and nobody would even sneeze in his direction. For what it's worth, I don't see one in 16 people voting for him.
Joshua: The sample error is not just a function fo the sample size but also of the relative frequency of a response. In this case (.06), the sample error would be about 1/2 of what it would be if the response being estimated were close to 50%.
Larry Johnson by his own admission was a conservative Republican until the Bushies started screwing with intelligence, so it's not too surprising that he'd gravitate to Barr with McCain pretty much toeing the Bush line on everything related to the military and intelligence.
"There is a second group of voters who will vote Nader over the other three which happens to overlap the disgruntled Clinton supporter vote but isn't necessarily the same beast. That group is the racist democrat faction."
And a third group of voters who may vote for Nader over the other three includes progressives who cannot support Obama because of his regressive positions on the following issues:
*the military budget
*gay marriage
*the death penalty
*the Patriot Act
*single payer health care
*U.S. support for Israel
*the war on drugs
Patrick Meighan
Culver City, CA
I think that Nader will have about as much an effect on the 2008 election as he had in the 2004 election (0.38% of the vote, no effect in any state). Pretty much a non-entity. I don't trust any of the current polls that include Nader -- third-party candidates invariably poll much higher than the votes they actually receive.
Bob Barr, on the other hand, might actually have some sort of measurable effect. If he runs a spirited campaign, he could draw as much as 2-3% of the vote. While many of his supporters probably would not have voted for either Obama or McCain in the first place, there would still be a large chunk drained from the Republicans (moreso than the Democrats), possibly enough to put one or two states (Georgia?) in contention that would otherwise be solid red.
Waaay to early to tell at this point.
Re Anon@3:25PM:
In 2004, the Constitution Party and the Green Party only received about 0.10% of the vote each. They're just too tiny to have any sort of measurable effect.
Imo the best way for these third party candidates to gain influence is to propose a deal to the main candidate who they are most likely to take votes from: the third part candidate will withdraw from this election if the main candidate publicly promises to support election reform that would allow voters to rank all the candidates in future elections.
Regarding the Green Party, we have yet to nominate anyone (though McKinney is the leading candidate). The convention will take place in early July, FWIW.
While there were other factors of course, there is no question that if Ralph Nader had not been on the ballot in Florida in 2000, Al Gore would have been elected president.
So perhaps you can understand why some of us are a little touchy about it.
Not to get into this old fight again, but without Nader and/or Buchanan in the running, the entire campaign would have looked different. Most "if Nader hadn't been on the ballot in Florida" analyses seem to imagine him magically disappearing from the ballot on election day. That was obviously not a possibility.
Anyone truly concerned about minor parties acting as spoilers should be working for some kind of single-tranferable voting system (e.g. IRV or Condourcet). Tens of millions of Democrats blame Nader for the loss in 2000 but have done nothing to solve an obvious problem with our voting system. Major party leaders won't fight for IRV because they believe that the upside of being able to manipulate the fear of spoiling is well worth the tiny risk of actually losing an election due to a third party's presence on the ballot.
Small sample size alert!
If what's left of the progressive wing of the Democratic party deserts Obama in November -- as I will and as they should -- that six percent may be realistic, and may cost Obama the election. But right now, it's not only a small sample size, but it's too early to have any idea of what will happen over the next five months. As Nate knows, a lot can happen during the season to influence the outcome that has nothing to do with the numbers.
Some republicans I've been talking to are voting for Bob Barr. They hate McCain.
Who is the "Nader" person?
Jeff Siegel:
"If what's left of the progressive wing of the Democratic party deserts Obama in November -- as I will and as they should -- that six percent may be realistic, and may cost Obama the election."
I'm sincerely curious -- what do you expect to accomplish by doing this? It seems to me to be a clear "perfect is the enemy of the good" approach. Do you really believe that it will make the Democrats more progressive in the long run (or collapse and lead to the rise of a more progressive party), and how much of your life are you willing to live under severely regressive Republican rule to test that gamble?
'Most "if Nader hadn't been on the ballot in Florida" analyses seem to imagine him magically disappearing from the ballot on election day. That was obviously not a possibility.'
Yeah, he was just a name on a ballot. It's not like he was a real person who could have dropped out and urged his supporters to help us avoid the horrors of the Bush Administration...
+1 on the IRV/Condorcet comment, no discussion of third parties on a numbers-friendly site like this one has any excuse for leaving out the fact that it is easy to fix the system so there are no spoilers.
I just wanted to say that, insofar as anti-Obama democrats exist come election day, I expect them to be at least as ready to stay home or leave a blank line on the ballot, as to vote for Nader; and far more likely to do either of those than to vote for McCain, despite what they say on a poll. Nader might get some of these votes, but that doesn't mean he actually affects the result.
Honestly, I think that the situation is the same with the true Greens ("Obama is not progressive enough/too pro-military/whatever"). Any of them who is ready to vote for Nader in 2008, is ready to leave a blank line (or write-in Noam Chomsky, or whatever) if Nader is not there. Such a person wants to send a message, not elect a candidate, and that is their right.
(Note: I voted Nader in 96 and 00, in safe Dem states, and I do not regret it, so I have more sympathy for greens and Chomsky than your average Dem. I am being analytical here, not partisan. But I would not consider for a moment voting for anyone but Obama this year.)
Yeah, he was just a name on a ballot. It's not like he was a real person who could have dropped out and urged his supporters to help us avoid the horrors of the Bush Administration...
Well he certainly couldn't have taken his name off the ballot. But do you really think that, if on Nov. 1, 2000, Ralph Nader had said "Hey, just kidding people, vote for Gore!," his supporters would have flocked to the polls to cast votes for the Democrat?
What everyone seems to forget is that Nader did terribly that November. After polling as high as 10% or so, he managed to get only 2.7% of the vote. The people who ended up voting for Nader, especially in swing states like Florida, were the hardcore of his support, people who voted for him largely because they had developed a deep antipathy for the Clinton-Gore administration. Ralph Nader did not have the ability to make that go away in the late fall of 2000. Perhaps he could have made them stay home. But that wouldn't have helped Al Gore.
"Well he certainly couldn't have taken his name off the ballot."
Well, he certainly could have. He could have taken his name off the ballot as late as Sept. 2000. Or never run in the first place, given that the only possible outcome (obvious to just about everyone), would be to improve the prospects of Bush winning the election.
"But do you really think that, if on Nov. 1, 2000, Ralph Nader had said "Hey, just kidding people, vote for Gore!," his supporters would have flocked to the polls to cast votes for the Democrat?"
I don't think there is any doubt that it would have made the difference. Nader got 100,000 votes in Florida. Gore only needed about one half of 1% of those votes for him to have won the election.
I don't know that I'm a Nader person, but the Democratic Party has sold its birthright and I'm sick and tired of it. Frankly, it's not any better on several key issues than the Republicans are -- the war, the bankruptcy reform act, and most recently, the global climate bill.
Did one Democrat raise a voice in protest over the Bear Stearns bailout? Of course not. They didn't see anything wrong with it. Go see who has taken money from Wall Street, and you'll understand why.
Or reconcile this line from the Democratic Leadership Council with what the Democrats should be: "We believe that economic growth generated in the private sector is the prerequisite for opportunity, and that government's role is to promote growth and to equip Americans with the tools they need to prosper in the New Economy." Sounds like some focus group mumbo jumbo from a Karl Rove protege.
The Democrats deserve to lose, so I'm going to help make that happen.
Mac Z. "Possibly New Mexico as well, which could have tipped the election."
Actually, Gore took New Mexico - but it was very close. Funny story about that.
The Republicans were going to contest the NM results in 2000. The Democrats said, "Don't bother, we'll swap you New Mexico for Florida."
Needless to say, the Republicans were not amused. Those guys have no sense of humor.
.
250,000 registered Democrats voted for Bush in Florida but I don't see any of the Dems bitching about that fact.
The continued insanity of those hoping the dems lose this year is staggering... Any other year, even 2000, or, dare I say it, 2004, I might see their point, but this is the most important election in a long time for progressives, even if they have to settle for a less than ideal candidate from their standpoint.
A 6-7 conservative majority in the Supreme Court would have repercussions lasting decades, at least, an idea that even the most jaded of you should take very very seriously. No matter how much you dislike Obama, his appointees would clearly be preferable to McCain's by a long shot. To even suggest actively contributing to the downfall of American civil liberties just because the dem candidate is not ideal for you is ludicrous.
This is not a surprising poll. Nader has always pulled well from a number of people who consider themselves conservatives or are registered republicans. I talked to people in Oregon who chose to vote for Bush as the lesser of 2 evils when Nader was removed from the ballot. When it comes to the Nader narrative, the "Conventional Wisdom" as explained by the corporate media and political partisans is completely wrong, as is usually the case.
> 250,000 registered Democrats voted for Bush in Florida but I don't see any of the Dems bitching about that fact.
Of course not; that fact does not fit their chosen belief system (BS). You'll also note that a rational person cannot simultaneously believe that "Nader cost Gore the 2000 election" and "Bush stole the 2000 election" yet many (most?) partisan democrats do not possess that level of logic.
> this is the most important election in a long time for progressives, even if they have to settle for a less than ideal candidate from their standpoint.
Since partisans (of any party) suffer from extremely selective memory recall, I'd just like to point out that this line is trotted out every election. I don't believe it's any more true this election than the last several. I'd say the most important election of my lifetime was 1980 (no I wasn't old enough to vote) when the republican party abandoned fiscal conservatism and governmental restraint in favor of fiscal lunacy and authoritarianism.
In the time I've been voting neither the republican or democratic party has ever offered a presidential candidate that I felt deserved my vote. I'll consider any third party candidate including Nader. I'm disappointed with the libertarian party choosing Barr. Badnarik was a much better candidate and I had hoped to see him nominated again or at least someone in his vein.
I agree that the line is brought every election, just like the "X Democrat candidate is the most liberal senator/congressman/governer in the country line," but this time it's really true, if for no other reason than the Supreme Court issue.
The only thing I can think of is that the so called "progressives" who dismiss arguments like mine know very little about just how powerful the Supreme Court can be. With a McCain appointee, we will likely see Roe v. Wade overturned, and probably will have due process made optional, both decisions that very well might stand for a few decades or so. And that's just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to the damage they could do. Any "progressive" nto voting for Obama is working directly against his/her best interest and directly against the interests of real progressives across the country. There is no reasonable way to claim otherwise.
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