Not much to look at today, but we have two somewhat contradictory results from the heartland.
In Iowa, SurveyUSA has Obama 9 points ahead of John McCain; Hillary Clinton was not surveyed. Obama has held a lead over McCain in all 12 Iowa polls released since the first of the year, and the state would appear to be about as safe as can be for a state that went for George W. Bush in 2004.
But in Nebraska, a Research 2000/Daily Kos poll has McCain up by huge margins: he leads Obama by 28 points and Clinton by 30. Nebraska awards some of its electors by Congressional District, but this poll doesn't have Obama particularly close in any of Nebraska's three CDs. In NE-2, the Omaha-based district that we thought might be relatively competitive for Obama, he trails McCain by 30 (small sample size caveats apply).
Other Nebraska polling has shown that state closer -- sometimes a lot closer -- so it's too early to discard the possibility that Obama can pick off an electoral vote or two. Nevertheless, the Obama-McCain map continues to consolidate itself, and look more like the one that most people were expecting from the outset. While Obama's polling situation has improved recently in states like Missouri and Virginia, more exotic plays like Montana and Nebraska appear to be less likely for him.
5.27.2008
Today's Polls, 5/27
@ 2:40 PM
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49 comments
I think it's premature. The polling shows Obama to be quite safe in OR, WA, IA, MN, and probably PA as time goes on, states where Kerry spent big money in 2004 (well, Washington was safe, but the others ended up fairly close)
That's a total of 45 electoral votes. He can move that money into playing offense. Recall that Kerry was spending money in NM, NV, and CO up until the day of the election. So Obama is adding MO and VA into the mix (the Kerry campaign bailed on MO with about a week or two to go), for a total of 24 electoral votes. That means that just using 2004 levels of money, he can afford to add NC and SC into the mix.
So now Nebraska ins't voting for Obama either? I thought his path to the White House--since OH, FL, AR, and WV and maybe even PA were not needed--was to change the map. Wasn't he supposed to be winning in Nebraska, or at least in 1 congressional district? And Nevada and New Mexico are going for McCain over Obama too? That leaves us with Colorado? Not enough to get Obama to the White House.
Somewhat off topic question:
Why is NJ purple but VA and IN red in your listing on the left?
Back on topic: Thanks for all the work you do.
North Dakota's win % took a huge hit due to Nebraska's new polls?
I'm not so sure about that...eastern North Dakota is more like western Iowa than Nebraska.
Wait, Obama is winning SC now?
...
What exactly IS Obama's electoral strategy anyway?
Nebraska was never really on the most optimistic of Maps... Having Iowa solidly locked up though will enable Obama to play in Kansas some. Good Cheap Grass Roots level Offense that could be symbolic and potentially game changing if it closes by September.
Seriously, what's up with this round of Survey USA polls? 45/28/24 breakdown? Yeah, I'm gonna buy that.
I don't doubt Obama leads Iowa, I just really wish we knew by how much. This poll, much like the other SUSA recent polls, is junk.
Anon 1,
Obama "changes the map" in Colorado and Virginia, and it's vastly premature to count him out in NM and NV. Time will tell. But his map will be different than past Democrats; that much is clear.
Anon 2,
The color of the states in the left sidebar reflects how they voted in 2004. So while NJ may be solid blue this cycle, Bush got a lot of votes there.
Houston,
It is possible that party identification has swung a whole lot. Maybe not all the way to 48%, but significantly. I have a hard time buying it, too, but I wouldn't have believed those special election results if you had told me them a month ago.
So now Nebraska ins't voting for Obama either?
Well, they're voting even LESS for Hillary. Nebraska's one of the last Bush holdouts, and has been for years.
Meanwhile, McCain still is losing to both of them nationwide.
The SUSA polls showing various VP matchups are absurd. In Iowa, there is like a range of 33 points or so depending on pairings, some of which are little known. The idea that Edwards would strongly help Obama is ludicrous. Edwards didn't carry a single state this year and in 2004 he lost 48 primaries and caucuses. And he couldn't get NC for Kerry in November 2004. What is wrong with SUSA all of a sudden?
What is his Electoral strategy?? Well, you came to the right site. At the moment. Barack is beating Mccain in the electoral college 273 to 265.... So all he has to do is win those states that he's currently winning in order to be President.
"Anonymous
So now Nebraska ins't voting for Obama either? I thought his path to the White House--since OH, FL, AR, and WV and maybe even PA were not needed--was to change the map. Wasn't he supposed to be winning in Nebraska, or at least in 1 congressional district? And Nevada and New Mexico are going for McCain over Obama too? That leaves us with Colorado? Not enough to get Obama to the White House."
But he HAS Pennsylvania and actually he is the favorite in Colorado and New Mexico.
He doesn´t need Nebraska, he does not need Montana, he does not need Nevada or New Mexico or Ohio or Florida or Arkansas or West Virginia.
He can get more than enough combinations without those states on the electoral map.
For example an "East Coast Scenario": NH, VA and all the states that are listed with a Win% of more than 50%, except Ohio, Colorado, New Mexico, and you have 272-266 Democrat.
Or a more traditional strategy: Missouri, Indiana. NH and VA Republican. There you are: 277 Obama, 261 McCain.
And it´s not unlikely that he gets Ohio, New Hampshire and Virginia, Nevada, likely, that he gets NM, CO.
I say the night is young in Nebraska. What happens, for example, when Obama announces that Chuck Hagel will be his defense secretary, and names him as his honorary campaign co-chairman?
Is it possible GA (15 electoral votes) will be in play given Bob Barr? Mccain leads Obama on average by 11% in GA. So Barr needs to get around the same % of votes.
If you take the plunge and call all 50 states now according to these percentages, that's a dead heat, 269 each. I think - my clerical accuracy isn't up to much right now.
Much as I want Obama to win, that result does have a certain appeal
Perhaps we should begin comparing Obama 2008 not to Kerry 2004 but to Gore 2000?
Apparently the one difference right now is Colorado.
Nebraska will vote for a Democrat for President when cows fly. It's as deep red as it gets. Iowa shares much of the socially progressive philosophy of the Upper Midwest and went Democrat four straight elections until '04. Think "Lutherans" versus "Evangelicals."
I think everybody realizes that Obama has no shot at winning Nebraska. But we are wondering about the Omaha congressional district.
Anonymous at 16:35 -- Don't worry, Survey USA will come out with a Nebraska poll showing Obama ahead by weighting it 65/20/15 D/R/I
Of course I jest, but I'm starting to get frustrated. I'd like to see more Mason Dixon statewide polls.
Everybody is so worried. It's only May 27th -- in two weeks you'll all look back on the polls of mid-late May and realize they are all out-dated.
Obama should win the Electoral College. He will hold every Kerry state (even NH is now trending Obama) plus he will pick up IA (90%), CO (80%) and NM (75%). Kerry's states plus those three puts him in the White House.
lol @ Houston
If Survey USA's party breakdown is correct then they shouldn't even bother polling anymore, as Obama will get well over 300 EVs.
Their sample has too many young voters again, in my opinion. In 2004, 17% of Iowa voters were under 30. And that was with pretty good turnout among anti-Bush young people. Survey USA thinks 30% will be under 34 years old. I'm skeptical about that.
30% for 18-34 seems reasonable. When you consider 17% were under 30 last time, that probably means about 24% were under 35. Increasing youth turnout 20% seems plausible, especially with Iowa now having election day registration.
I don't think Nebraska, or even one of its CDs, was ever in that much contention -- though I do still think Obama should make an effort targetted at Omaha. Montana, though, I still think is distantly in play, and perhaps North Dakota as well. These are states where Obama can be competitive and has the resources to make a big push. The small populations (which offer a retail politicking advantage) and inexpensive media markets (combined with Obama's flush reserves) still make them great opportunities for playing offensively even if there is an inherent lead to the GOP.
The thing is, when people talked about Obama expanding the map, it was never done with the assumption that traditionally Republican states would become gimmes for him. He'll still need to fight for them. And he will have the financial resources and ground operation to do so.
*niq77174: 30% for 18-34 seems reasonable. When you consider 17% were under 30 last time, that probably means about 24% were under 35.
;Really? That's a stretch.
What it comes down to is the Dem's had this election down pat if Hillary's the nom - something Obama still denies.
Obama's strategy is this: win the states he already has. And count on a large angry Democrat turnout, large enough to befuddle the polls. Wasn't anyone paying attention to the turnouts in the early primaries?
niq77174-
It's not just increasing the youth vote by 20%... it's increasing it by 20% relative to all other age groups. The number of young voters increased in 2004 like everyone predicted, but it stayed relatively the same percentage of the overall vote since other age groups had increased turnout as well.
IMHO, it's a big stretch to make that assumption... they have done it in their other state-by-state polling too, not just for Iowa.
Is there a way that you could change the color of the states on the left to purple as a reflection of only one of the two democrats winning? Florida and Colorado are misleading unless you look at the numbers.
Patrick,
Hillary has not been fully vetted. She partnered with Republicans to take down Obama so all of the opp research has been on Hillary.
Can you imagine what they will do with those 16 Puerto Rican terrorist who committed 130 Bombings and killing scores of US citizens that President Clinton pardoned at according to some Hill's request so that she could run in NY. Or the major flap that will come regarding Billary and the library donor scandals and the other tax returns that have not been released.
Unfortunately, the campaign being so tilted toward Obama and Obama did not really attack Hillary in the same way as the Republican's would attack which has left us a blind spot with Hillary that we have not had an opportunity to really measure.
So the polling will not reflect the vetting that will occur going forward.
I admit that there will be additional vetting with Obama and other issues, but we really have a tremendous head start with both Hillary and the Republicans conducting massive operation research over such a long campaign.
Further, I would like to see what effect a lack of Obama's campaigning over the last three weeks against Hill has had on her negatives and polling. Are we actually getting a false pulse for Hill.
120 million people voted in 2004. So to increase the turnout by 20% would be to add 24 MILLION voters. That's not happening. Sorry to break it to you.
Plus, I'm sure everyone remembers the last time the Dems had primary turnout this high. They did so well in that election.
Brandon: let's compared apples to apples. Maybe you don't agree with me, but I think people are mad. Really, really mad. In 1992, they were "kind of" mad. Presidential turnout went up 12%. We've only been up a total of 12% in the three cycles since then, so we're somewhat behind. Especially if people are really, REALLY mad. Because in 1992, we saw a 12% increase, and people were just...you know, nettled. There was no Iraq in 1992. There was no $4 gas. There was no 10% increase in grocery prices. People are really. REALLY. Mad. I think 20% is quite doable.
20% is easily doable. Plus, the young, cellphone set that tends to support Obama is the least likely to be cornered by pollsters.
Didn't we hear in 2004 that Kerry was going to increase turnout dramatically as well? He still lost by 3 MILLION votes.
I just don't see where these 24 MILLION people would come from. Unless you count the double voting and dead people voting in the major cities.
Brandon said:
I just don't see where these 24 MILLION people would come from. Unless you count the double voting and dead people voting in the major cities.
****
Well Brandon,
If you look at party affiliation and independent leaners and just add 10% to the turnout, you easily pick up 22 Million democratic votes.
The party affiliation difference was only 2% in 2004, approximately 2.4 Million of 120 Million according to Pew http://pewresearch.org/pubs/773/fewer-voters-identify-as-republicans
The party affiliation difference as of 3/20/08 now is net 7 points over 2004, approx. 8.4 Million democratic advantage. Moreover, the independent equal 37% with 4 point spread for democratic leaners vs. republican leaners compared to 2004 add approximately 1.76 Million leaners. This totals approx 10.16 Million democratic advantage over 2004. Now add 10% increased turnout and you get 22 Million democratic voter advantage in this cycle.
So no matter the metrics used by SUSA, this is a democratic election.
But those are the same voters. They are just going from Indy to Dem. What I am saying is, I don't see how there will be 24 Million NEW voters this year.
Obama's Organizing Fellows reveal the "key" 17 States: The List
Colorado
Florida
Georgia
Iowa
Michigan
Missouri
North Carolina
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
Nevada
Ohio
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Virginia
Washington
Wisconsin
Poblano,
What do you think of Chuck Todd's assertion that the loser (clinton in this case) will poll worse then the presumptive nominee after the battle is essentially over because the nominee (Obama) stops campaigning against Clinton, which in this case seems to have been the case for about 3 weeks here. Be interesting if we had some historical numbers to test this thoery.
kubla,
interesting list. Almost matches the 15 "Obama swing states" as listed on this site - with the difference that
- Indiana is out
- Washington, Iowa and Oregon are in.
Interestingly, all four are states in which Obama is doing better than Clinton.
Brandon, from where do you get those 24 Million voters?
Not the overall general election turnout should increase by 20%, but the Iowa youth turnout. That probably more like 240,000.
No way is Obama that far behind in Omaha. No way. That would be a heavier loss in the Omaha area than in any recent election.
Bin this poll, move on to the next one.
Obama's Organizing Fellows reveal the "key" 17 States: The List
Here, I put those in order for you.
New Jersey
Washington
Oregon
Iowa
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Colorado
New Mexico
Michigan
Ohio
Nevada
New Hampshire
Virginia
Missouri
Florida
North Carolina
Georgia
You've got it, stop worrying:
Washington
Oregon
Iowa
You've got it if you campaign right:
New Jersey
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Tossup:
Colorado
New Mexico
Michigan
Nevada
New Hampshire
Ohio
You'll need a miracle:
Virginia
Missouri
Florida
North Carolina
When pigs fly:
Georgia
PS. Why is everyone ignoring North Dakota and Indiana?
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