Well, the exit polls apparently show an "easy win" for Obama in North Carolina. And if you make inferences based on the results of the recession question, the exit poll appears to show him ahead in Indiana by a point or two.
Subtract what Chuck Todd refers to as the "Obama margin of error" -- his tendency to overperform in the exit polls by about 7 points -- and that implies a comfortable enough but perhaps not "easy" win in North Carolina, and a Clinton win in Indiana by about 5 points -- exactly what everyone expected going in.
UPDATE: There are a apparently contradictory versions of the Indiana exit poll, with another version showing Clinton winning by mid-single digits. The only thing I think we know for certain is that crossover voting will be a huge factor in Indiana.
UPDATE-2: From what best I can gather, I don't think either campaign was expecting a double-digit margin in North Carolina going into tonight.
5.06.2008
Obama Margin of Error
@ 5:30 PM
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Actually, even accounting for the "Obama Margin of error," I still think those exits are good news for Obama, because polls in NW IN don't close for an hour. It still works out to a slight Clinton lead, but that lead will be well within the polls margin of error (the type not specific to Obama). I'm not too optimistic, though, because I don't particularly think of Matt Drudge as a credible source these days.
Blumenthal thinks the Obama margin is a kind of age-related Bradley (young poll workers getting more young responders). Is there evidence the effect is more marked in older States?
I'm assuming exit polls don't include the heavy early voting right?
If the Obama margin is an age related Bradley effect, It shouldn't be as big in IN as it was in PA, Indiana's median age is actually a 10th of a year younger than Pennsylvania's
Her spiral downward among black voters continues...from 13% in OH to 11% in PA to 8% in IN to 6% in NC...
Democrats don't win presidential elections with a strong black vote.
Carter lost the white vote in 1976, and Clinton lost it both times.
that should be without
WOw, CNN just began with the vote return. I thought the polls close at 8.00 PM?
Exit polls also don't count the late vote in NW which is key to Obama in IN
Polls in IN Closes at 6:00 PM. NW IN is on central time, though, so the polls there don't close for another 15 minutes or so.
Well folks, I just spent 20-30 minutes checking the percentages county by county in Indiana. Poblano, if your analysis county by county holds, it is going to be very very close in Indiana. Clinton was doing 5% lower than she needed in many, many counties. The turnout in the Clinton counties was about 50% higher than your predictions in most, though, so that means the Obama centers are going to have to come in with a high turnout, too.
There were a dozen or so counties in which Clinton was doing much better than the margin you projected she needed in that county to win the state, so I am not positive that she did less well in the aggregate in the counties that you pegged for Clinton based on the demographics. But my quick "audit" of the small counties looked very good for Obama.
The make-or-break issue may be whether Clinton can hold Obama to lower margins than HE needs in the counties projected for him in your model. That was part of what happened in Pennsylvania, particularly in the North and East suburbs of Philadelphia.
Very nice chart. Keep up the good work!
My Brother linked me to your site, and I must say, I'm thoroughly impressed. What excellent work. Yes you can!
Poblano, congratulations on the excellent work with the data modeling. Try not to gloat too openly about Armstrong calling you out for being foolishly optimistic over NC.
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