After the jump are my projections for North Carolina extrapolated to a county-by-county level, along with some basic demographic information about each county. Since returns come in by county rather than Congressional District -- I figure it will be a little easier to follow the action this way. However, because my model was not designed to work at the county level, there may be an additional margin of error here. The results for the large counties should be more reliable than the results for the smaller ones.
Very important: These results are calibrated in order to match the current margin in the Real Clear Politics polling average: Obama +8.0. For Clinton to win North Carolina, she'll need to be beating these numbers by about 8 percent across the board. For Obama to win North Carolina by double digits, he'd need to better these numbers by a couple of points.
Also, an extra caveat when interpreting North Carolina returns. If the results of early balloting are released before most of the election-day vote is counted, the initial numbers might look artificially high for Obama.
5.06.2008
North Carolina Scorecard
@ 7:08 AM
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17 comments
So this should be an indiator if early results will lead to a narrow or a big Obama win?
So when we see him winning Lee we can exspect this to be a good Obama day?
Also, what is the MoE of this?
Watauga County, one of the cruxes of CD-05, is listed as O+4. Obama won the county straw poll here something like 75-25, and that was just out in the county and for Boone. Watauga County has an amazing grassroots progressive organization, but that straw poll did not even include Appalachian State, where the young dems and students for Obama have been organizing for months.
I predict Watauga County goes Obama +15 or more.
Happy voting NC!
peace,
JW
Poblano,
Do you know how the early voting will be weighted when the early returns roll in?
For example, when the polls first close, will the news orgs show "0% reporting", or will it be adjusted according to the early voting percentage?
Bogey,
I don't know for certain, but what I *think* takes place is that early voting results are not counted toward the "percentage of precincts reporting" calculation. That was my recollection about what happened in Texas, anyway, although I'm sure it varies from state to state.
Poblano, just sent you an email about something rel. urgent at the 538dotcom email address. Could you please check your email and perhaps respond as soon as you're able to? TIA -nl
As a North Carolinian I feel this is pretty accurate, however I think that Cumberland will go Clinton, and some costal counties go Obama.. Overall I think he wins by 5-8.
Just a quick thank you. This site must take a great deal of time and energy. It is very important and valuable, and your effort is very much appreciated
Thanks for all your hard work ... I hope some network hires you instead of a talking head who says something as silly as, "Hillary wore a yellow suit again today" or "Obama looks tired" and thinks it's an astute analysis.
DisplayName:
That is the only bad thing on this site: Poblano never answers Emails.
I did the same thing three weeks ago or so and did not get an answer until now.
For Clinton to win North Carolina, she'll need to be beating these numbers by about 8 percent across the board.
I think that's wrong. If Clinton wins 4 percent it's obvious that Obama would loose 4 percent. This would end in a 50:50 tie.
Wolle,
You're "kind of" right. Let's take an example. Northampton is listed as O +30. That works out to 65-35 in favor of Obama. If Clinton "wins 4 percent", as you put it, she ends up with 39% and it will be a 61-39 which would be good enough for her to feel good about her chances. But if it's 61-39, it's O +22 (which is how she gains 8). Does this explain it for you?
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