5.30.2008

No, I'm not Chuck Todd

There are certain pleasures in writing anonymously. Particularly in the political world, where there is a whole mythology associated with anonymity -- think Deep Throat or Primary Colors or Atrios. But I'm fortunate enough to have been granted the opportunity to develop some relationships with larger outlets (you should see these coming to fruition very soon). And it just ain't very professional to keep referring to yourself as a chili pepper.

My real name is Nate Silver and my principal occupation has been as a writer, analyst and partner at a sports media company called Baseball Prospectus. What we do over there and what I'm doing over here are really quite similar. Both baseball and politics are data-driven industries. But a lot of the time, that data might be used badly. In baseball, that may mean looking at a statistic like batting average when things like on-base percentage and slugging percentage are far more correlated with winning ballgames. In politics, that might mean cherry-picking a certain polling result or weaving together a narrative that isn't supported by the demographic evidence.

So if you catch me overusing baseball metaphors in my political writing or political metaphors in my baseball writing -- this is my excuse.

154 comments

Matthew Frederick said...

wow! i read (and love) your work at bp too! a small world indeed.

Nate said...

Thanks, Matthew. I'm mildly surprised that nobody had figured it out. The Michigan analysis I did last week was basically a lo-fi version of PECOTA.

Rorgg said...

Heh, I should have guessed. Big fan of BP, have a few of your books.

Anonymous said...

Poblano, UNMASKED!!!!

Great work Nate.

-Dan (aka dansac @ DKos)

Matthew Frederick said...

15 most similar districts! How did I miss that?

Goes to show how steeped I am in pecota-speak and methods ... I don't even notice it when applied elsewhere.

Dave said...

Wow - as someone who takes PECOTA pretty seriously (other than it's constant tendency to understate Ichiro!'s numbers) - gotta say I admire your work both here and at BP.

Anonymous said...

Nate Silver. Sure!!! That sounds like a made up name, much like Wolf Blitzer or Stone Phillips. Anyway, keep up the great work.

Anonymous said...

Aah, just like the supposed effect on Keith Olbermann, your 538 analyses are steeped in a rigorous sports analyst's viewframe.

Unknowingly that's probably why I enjoyed your posts so much and they have a sense of familiarity.

llthomps said...

What are the chances of the San Diego Padres winning the world series while voting at least 50% for Obama?

The Grand Panjandrum said...

Heh. You should have chosen a spicier chile because you are the hotness when it comes to crunching the data sets into digestible portions. Thank you and keep up the good work!

Nate said...

The right prop bet there is probably the number of Padres victories on the balance of the season versus Obama electoral votes in California. I'd take the Obama side.

Greg said...

I must say, as good as this website has been, knowing that you work for BP makes it that much better.

Syrith said...

That helps explain why I'm always flipping between my Yahoo fantasy baseball screen and your site...! :)

Gotta say, though, I like the "poblano" call-sign - unprofessional, schmunprofessional...

Anonymous said...

Keep up th good work and dont let the MAN change you!

jfarelli said...

No shit. It is suiting that a baseball statistician would be good at the political stats as well!

Good job. Keep up the good work on both sites!

El Cid said...

C'mon, admit it -- you're actually George Clooney, right? I knew he always was a secret statistician!

Anonymous said...

As some who loves BP and 538, i can only say, keep up the good work at both sites.

Anonymous said...

Yout get laid yet?

Matt said...

This is funny-- as my appetite for sabermetrics has grown in the last year+, so has my interest in political polling. No wonder your site had a pull on me.

Anonymous said...

Wow, as a BP subscriber I should have known. How the hell do you find the time, Nate, do you sleep 3 hours a day or something?

CJo said...

Nate friggin' Silver! You just blew my mind.

How soon until you calculate VORP -- Value Over Replacement Politician.

justin said...

NOO!!! although i love the work that you do here on 538 and i think it is fitting that you indeed work for baseball, i am sad that you did not stay the "peter parker" route and have your secret identity safe. =)

Icarus Falling said...

It's like watching the reveal in the Prestige - they've been telling you the secret the whole time, and you still didn't pick up on it.

Stuart said...

That explains why Google Reader has, from the day I subscribed to 538, shown every post as "by Nate" :) You did a good job with your anonymity but obviously not quite a perfect one.

Nice to "meet" you, Nate! Keep up the good work!

Anonymous said...

I knew it!

Stuart said...

Also - ha! Chuck Todd *wishes* he were you!

Anonymous said...

Why the original name Poblano??? Does it have any meaning or significance? Just curious....

Anonymous said...

Perhaps you should just change your name to Nate Poblano?

In any event, you have done some outstanding work using available evidence and I thank you for your efforts.

Sam said...

At least I don't feel too guilty now spending hours here using your bandwidth since I've sunk so much money on BP products. In any case keep up the good work.

Anonymous said...

Wow! same last name, and a love for Baseball. super!

Mac said...

I should have known.

Now, about Chipper Jones' defensive ratings...

kubla000 said...

Whatever you do Nate, whatever other entity you begin working with, please, keep these Regression models going and keep this blog alive :)

You've become a sensation overnight for good reason... You're cooler than John King and Chuck Todd's illigitamate Gallup Sponored Lovechild!

Brian said...

Aw, that's one of those that's obvious once you know it ... "projection systems" ... "most similar districts" ...

I actually think the PECOTA/comp approach is better suited to this than it is to baseball players. The greater aggregating involved in demographics of groups of people takes away what has always been my problem with the use of comps of singular individuals to analyze baseball players' future.

Pretty satisfying "unveiling," though. Funny.

Anonymous said...

WOW!!
I follow your work on BP and SOSH
this a very pleasant surprise :)

Aaron said...

Congrats Nate! Love BP, love 538. This is probably the fastest-growing blog in the history of the universe.

Carl said...

In retrospect, I should not be surprised that the person who developed astute models for how the primary season would unfold after Iowa was the same person who developed the PECOTA system. I've talked up your models for both politics and baseball, even though only one has had good news for the Good Guys from the South Side of Chicago. Keep up the good work, Nate. You've already made an impact on this election season and I look forward to your take as the fall campaign unfolds. (Maybe you and Goldman can come up with a Political Prospectus one of these days. I'd buy it!)

Greg said...

You just blew my mind, but of course it makes perfect sense. This totally makes up for the abandonment of the Burrito Bracket.

Sam Pratt said...

I shoulda known you were a stathead.

I've been describing the Obama campaign as "Bill Jamesian" to friends for a while... Most have drawn a blank on the reference.

spmancuso said...

I can verify that "Nate Silver" is his real name, I've known him since he was in high school. Congrats Nate on your great success both at BP and here. I'm on the Hillary side of this skirmish, but read Poblano religiously. You do very edifying work. Keep it up! Steve

Anonymous said...

We "sports" fans are very often labled as unintelligent, narrow minded, etc. What I find ironic is that there is so much intellegent conversation on this site based on logic and it turns out many of us are huge sports fans. I read other other places as well and it almost always results to name calling based on emotion.

Enoch said...

Wow. I took me a second to have all the synapses snap into place. Nate Silver, where have I heard that before...PECOTA...oh my god. Of course it makes perfect sense now.

Love your work at BP and have really admired your work here as well. Keep it up. If anything, though, my expectations have now been raised.

Steve said...

So which state would be the most like Jason Neighborgall?

R-Boy said...

I had you pinned down to some sort of sports analyst. I can't see how you find time with being a baseball analyst though, that's the most stat-driven sport of any popularity in America.

FWIW, I use to forecast fantasy football projections under an "fantasy economist" moniker.

Adam said...

this blows my goddamn mind. and of course, makes perfect sense.

Congrats to you. Just don't stop doing these models.

Greg said...

Small world. Huge fan of your BP work too.

Anonymous said...

Gotta just add in the comment that this blew my mind... My favourite sports site and political blog were connected without me having a clue (I won't pretend to have made even a shadowy connection between the two)

anjiaoshi said...

Anonymity is fun, but on the upside, now that you're no longer a Sketchy Anonymous Blogger, maybe the talking heads will start giving your work the attention and respect it deserves.

Then again, they still can't seem to quit blathering about "working-class whites," so maybe they're just impervious to sense.

Jay said...

OMG! I'm a longtime subscriber to BP - love all the work you guys do there. This just makes your site doubly awesome. :)

jenny said...

Awesome. So what do we call the sabermetrics of politics? Maybe Obamanomics. He plays the game pretty well...

Nick said...

Small world, indeed. This site is missing the snark of BP though.

Anonymous said...

Yeah, so you're a BP guy...but what is Nancy Pelosi's VORP (Value Over Replacement Politician)?

joejoejoe said...

Forget your fancy polls and statistics. My candidate's got grit! You can't quantify the ability to scrap out a win in the electoral college or tell Mark Penn that a sacrifice bunt isn't the most powerful weapon in a campaign.

Oliver said...

Fantastic. Two worlds converging! I've been reading BP for years and years and now in the last month this has become my favorite political site. I should have known! I can't tell you what a pleasure it is to find people with a such a similar way of thinking about the world as me writing such good stuff about so many things I care about.

One thing that I realized when I was drawn to the Obama campaign was that the way it was run was reminding me of my baseball team, the Henry/Epstein Red Sox. They exude the same sense of having thought everything through and proceeding based on well-informed, data-driven metrics. I'm hoping they find similar success.... it seems the ALCS is finally about to be over.

niq77174 said...

I should have guessed after you did the nearest neighbor analysis in Michigan. Oy.

Tyler said...

Love BP, love this blog. Thanks for all your hard work, Nate!

Oliver said...

I was also thinking about how it would be cool to try and cook up some kind of "secret sauce" for political candidates, since I was so impressed with the baseball version after it predicted the World Series winner (I know, I know, small sample size). But the difference between baseball and politics, as I'm sure you know, is how much everything changes.... in baseball differences between eras can be quantified using the large amount of data for each year and corrected for. But in presidential politics everything changes so much and then you only run one contest. I mean, I doubt anybody thinks George W. Bush, if running for the first time, would win in the 2008 political climate. But how do you measure that? Who knows how Lyndon Johnson or Woodrow Wilson would perform in 2008? It's like assessing the value of baseball players when the rules of the game change quasi-randomly with each game. Someone with a different skillset might suddenly find themselves much more valuable.

Daniel said...

As a Wicker Park resident, I'm proud to know this incredible site came from our 'hood. Your work has been amazing, as much a revelation as PECOTA was for stat wonks.

That said, I must protest that the burrito bracket was never completed. I'd love to buy you burrito at La Pasadita if it would help expedite the process.

Doug said...

I can't tell you how exciting it is that the two sports I follow (baseball and politics) have converged. Thanks for your analysis and keep up the good work in both fields!

Now, can we convince Bill James to run for Senate?

JTD said...

Yes, wow. Interesting how many 538 readers also know you from BP. Strong correlation, no? Nice work, and keep it up. Will there be a reveal on BP?

I can't remember exactly where, but BP excerpted a Bill James interview a month or so ago in which he compared the low level of baseball analysis on tv to the far far lower level of political analysis there. Was that some sort of hint?

Jeff Hildebrand said...

Ok, now I'm really kicking myself for not figuring this out...

Great work as always Nate.

Joshua said...

I guess it is not a surprise. It is clear you have a firm grasp on statistics, and, most importantly, the concept of uncertainty that seems to elude a lot people. I figured you were a social science researcher, but baseball statistician works too. Anyways, I'm a relatively new fan but love your work.

Josh

along said...

welcome out of anonymity! but I hope you'll still use the handle Poblano! love your work, and writing.

BensDad said...

Unbelievable. Just another BP subscriber/538 reader here. But unlike some of the others above, I never suspected it, even though I also noted the 'nate' in google reader.

along said...

Poblametrics!

boulbonne said...

Thx from France for the good work , even if we dont have baseball!

Anonymous said...

Wait a second, is Goldstein going to show up and start doing Senate prospects?

BensDad said...

This would be a good time to point out that predictions based on limited data early in the race are just as unreliable as predicting that the team in 1st place after 2 weeks of the season is likely to win the WS, even though they have been outscored by their opponents.

:)

Mikey said...

Totally, totally unfair that the site that makes me embarrassed by how little I know about baseball and the site that makes me embarrassed by how little I know about politics are written by the SAME GUY.

Hats off to you Nate. I'm blown away that you can do such high-quality work on two subjects of great interest to me. Keep up the great work.

Anonymous said...

Ha! Just another loyal BP and 538 reader here. Keep up the good work on both fronts, Nate!

-Andrew

williamg said...

Nate, I'm confused. Does that make you a pledged delegate, or are you an add-on superdelegate?

Anonymous said...

I was completely shocked. I was wondering why I liked this blog so much!

Still, you gotta admit, it does take a tiny bit of the fun out of it finding out you're not the Vörös McCracken of politics.

Anonymous said...

Nate! You're a genius twice over.... Any insight into bankruptcy law?

Anonymous said...

Nate! You're a genius twice over.... Any insight into bankruptcy law?

rustydude said...

Wow! Nate, I know your writing and analysis from a 3 year subscription to Baseball Prospectus! What an interesting turn of events. Nate, I love your work on BP, here on 538, and as poblano on DKos.

Sean Forman said...

Wow, Nate, didn't see that one coming. This is good stuff.

jordan said...

Un-friggin-believable. What a massive web-bombshell, especially for all of us data geeks!

Rasmus said...

Wow!
I don´t have the faintest idea of baseball (not popular in Germany) and I never heard of BP, but it looks like you have a lot of fans here and there.
I worship your work here on 538, but it would be hypocritical to praise you for your work on BP when I don´t have any idea how a baseball game proceeds.

Catherine said...

The natural resolution here is this:

Nate "Poblano" Silver

Garciapierra said...

Look, I don't need some computer telling me who's going to win the election. I work in government. I see how government operates every day. You can make a computer say anything. How do you think we got Enron?

hosertohoosier said...

I suspect (just a guess) that the stats is one of the things that attracts people to baseball, hence the correlation. I grew up in Canada, but much preferred baseball, which has substantially richer statistics for each player (plus baseball cards are more widespread than hockey cards).

Anonymous said...

Where I come from, the only game is soccer, and now, for the first time, I feel I want to understand the rules of baseball!

Chris said...

This is just freaking awesome.

shawndgoldman said...

Nate/Pablano:

I cannot tell you how happy I am to hear this. This is true for partially selfish reasons; I am beginning to do my own analysis (very part-time) of both elections and baseball, in an effort to educate myself better on these matters so that I can in the future teach a non-science major college course on national elections, the national pasttime, and natural disasters. If i ever get a teaching position, i will likely be pestering you for input as i develop the course.

Cheers to rationality!

Anonymous said...

She's safe ... no, she's out ... was it a sacrifice? ... disputed call ... the umps are in conference.

Nate -- tell us, what's the call? Will the fans accept it?

(Great work!)

grantcart said...

We have been watching and using your insights at DU (DemocraticUndergound) - especially your prescient Super Tuesday analysis.

Your work in part inspired one of our statisticians to try and develop a electoral college index that combines polls and intrade to give a daily indicator ala 'dow jones industrial average'.

You can see that at
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6180124

Again thanks for your great work in the primary.

shawndgoldman said...

Poblano/Nate (better pepper-spelling that time):

I am also reminded of an exchange from this interview on the Freakonomics blog between its author, Stephen Dubner, and sabrmetric giant, Bill James:

Q: Do you think quantitative analysis in individual sports (like boxing or tennis) will ever reach the level it has in baseball? It seems to me that there is as much baloney involved in coverage and discussions of those sports as there is in baseball, but fans are not as equipped to see through it. I ask because I’ve always thought your primary mission is exposing that kind of thing in baseball (you eat baloney for breakfast).

A: Oh, we do horrible analysis sometimes. There will never be a shortage of B.S. What we do, essentially, is to pick up things that people say and ask “Is that true?” This can be done with regard to almost anything — any sport, including politics. The people who analyze politics on television say absolutely ridiculous things with a frequency that would make the laziest baseball announcer look like Socrates by comparison.

Stephen Troy said...

Hah! Hey Nate, I've been reading your stuff for a while now, not realizing who this was. Congrats on the project.

Pooh said...

Nate tha' Great!

tim said...

As a BP premium subscriber since it started, I should have guessed one of you were all involved, heh.

MetaData said...

I have long felt that we should simply swap all the political journalists for sports journalists. If you lie as a sports writer, your career would soon be over.

Plus, if joe six-pack is smart enough to discuss the implications of a third round draft pick to club's success three years out, then he's certainly smart enough for more sophisticated political analysis.

I use a pseudonym because I wish to keep my political and work life separate. Also, my name name is so unique, that google finds every silly thing I ever said.

Anonymous said...

Nate, keep up the great work here and over at BP. I'm not sure which site I enjoy more.

Dingo said...

Ah, it all makes sense now:

Poblano : ARG ::
Nate Silver : Joe Morgan

Populista said...

Poblano unmasked! Hooray!

I just have to ask. Are you also the Senate Guru?

Your a amazing writer. Hopefully those opportunities are pretty big. Maybe a New York Times section? DailyKos frontpage? FiveThirtyEight moving to Rural Voters? Politico?

Keep up the fantastic work!

Brian Gunn said...

This is wild. I read one of your Poblano posts last week, Nate, and I thought, Jesus, this sounds exactly like PECOTA -- just change some of the names and it could be an article on BP.com. And sure enough...

Keep up the fine work.

VAR said...

Freaky and so cool for a baseball fan and a Kossack. This will get you on Olbermann for sure!

P.S. Best thing you've done for your career, by far.

Anonymous said...

Lies, damned lies, and....Poblano?

Anonymous said...

Agree with 9:01! Imagine the prop bets in November....better than the Super Bowl!

Anonymous said...

Great stuff. I check this place everymorning, especially if there is a poll. Good work and always awesome to learn your a baseball guy.

rilkefan said...

Funny, I was talking up your excellent work at Replacement Level Yankees Weblog the other day, saying you were doing sabermetrics for politics.

UC said...

Whoa, this is surreal. Like the exact same time I read your name on the site, I look down at the University of Chicago alumni summer event guide I got in the mail today and see the exact same name. Now I'm definitely gonna go to the Sox game event you're hosting in August. I'll keep my questions baseball related if that's your thing though.

Rahul N said...

Totally knew you were from Chicago with the Grossmen analogy. Keep up the good work.

Fleisch said...

So, the mask is lifted and you're a baseball fan. Good for you, that explains the stats proficiency. I don't follow BP at all (hey, I'm a girl; my brother probably does), but it does compel me to a totally OT question about a statistic my uncle was pushing decades ago.

Does anyone use this? It's sort of a take-off on slugging percentage, that takes account of whether or not you're a clutch hitter, and can advance runners. Can't remember what it was called, but in essence, it was the number the hitter scored out of the number of possible bases to advance, counting men on base. If there's no one on base, the total possible is 4, and with a home run you'd get 4 out of 4 and be batting a thousand; if you walked, you'd get 1 out of 4, for .250. But suppose there was a man on second, and you walked. You'd have only 1 out of 7, for about a .143 average.

Is this statistic used or have ways of calculating worth in baseball gone way beyond that?

Serge said...

Nate tha' Great indeed. Looking forward to telling you how awesome you are on 2+2.

Rasmus said...

fleisch (are you also from Germany? That means "meat" in german),

I guess his baseball system is at least so complicated as his system here. And then it would go "way beyond that". Probably it´s lightyears away from any way I could imagine how it works.
Here is it explained, it´s not SO complicated as I thought:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PECOTA

Rasmus said...

Oh, is this the first post with more than 100 comments?

Anonymous said...

Nice work Nate. Huge (O)BP fan. Just checked out Jorge Sosa/Ray King
metrics this morning. I think Sosa
could help out. You?

APoxOnBoth said...

I can appreciate the desire for anonymity, I also work in a field unrelated to politics where some of the tools of my trade seem to apply here, and have been using the pseudonym to keep the two separate.

On the other hand, I'm not considered a major source of analysis being cited everywhere and swirling at the center of speculation over my real identity and implied agenda. You've been doing great work here, regardless of your name and real-life employment, I'm hopeful this doesn't cause you any problems.

Anonymous said...

Wow.......

I bookmark your blog, and own a dog-eared copy of "Baseball Between the Numbers." I would have never guessed that they are the same author based on the language. However, based on the math, it's all quite clear.

Awesome.

Josh said...

While I don't actually own a copy of baseball prospectus, I'm a huge fantasy baseball guy and I have follow the good data being used badly theory. I have enjoyed reading this blog for weeks and could not figure out why it seemed so familiar. Your public spat over prediction NC and IN is exactly like predicting how well a player will do in the upcoming season based on relatively unheard of stats that just happen to be a LOT more reliable. Keep up the good work.

MSS said...

That a writer for Baseball Prospectus would also be a writer who would undertake the systematic quantitative analysis of an ongoing election campaign that we have come to rely on at fivethirtyeight.com makes sense. But, still, I would not have guessed.

I have noted, in print, the similarity of sabermetrics to electoral analysis (APSR, 1993), giving Bill James what is likely his only citation in the political science literature to date. Now we have another data point, so to speak.

Jivas said...

Nate - another long-time BP reader/subscriber and Chicago Pizza Feed participant. I'm new to this blog, but it looks *exactly* like the type of political data analysis that I'm missing at the mainstream media outlets (and at the political blogs that are tailored to my personal political beliefs).

I'll be spending a hella long time reading through all the old posts, so keep up the (presumably) great work.

Finally: where the hell do you find the time to do this? I suppose I know what happened to some of the time that had been earmarked to developing a PECOTA system for NBA players! :)

Ed said...

Wow. Love your work Nate, and respect you much more knowing your not just a baseball wonk. I'm definitely adding this blog to the Reader.

Silly me- I thought the non-baseball interests of the BP staff were limited to Will hanging out with Sterger.

Maury Brown said...

Well, well, well... Nate, you sly dog, you. I should have read between the lines a few months back. You're my hero.

Anonymous said...

Hey Poblano! Great work on electoral predictions and I just spent some time surfing Baseball Prospectus which I had not heard of before. What a comprehensive and well-researched site about baseball! It has tons of stats and predictions about almost every player and team. But, I cannot find anything on it about my favorite player, Joe Schlabotnik. Can you fix this please?

Ever yours in fandom,

C. P. Brown.

Batgirl said...

Wow, that's like finding out that Batman and Spiderman are the same dude!

Lindsey said...

BP eh? Will I'll always remember the warm glow as the Twins annihilated their P-thag projections several years in a row.

Seriously though, as long as you aren't as annoyingly arrogant as Aaron Gleeman, we're good.

Anonymous said...

Well, I'll be goddamned. Heya Nate, been using PECOTA in my Roto drafts for years, never even thought about the connection here and the way you work in the probabilities.

Keep on truckin!

C.C. Lee

mlb blog said...

That's very cool. I've always been into baseball stats since I was a kid. I can definitely see how that could lead to this. I love this site and I look forward to checking it out frequently through the election.

Anonymous said...

HI Nate

Longtime fan of BP here--good to see you turning your talents to this.

Trev said...

Nate,

This site is wonderful. Your commentary is good, but your skills with excel [or is PECOTA finally running on something else] are unmatched in the (public) political sphere. That's what people come to this site for.

Stick to the data, and you'll be much louder and smarter than the talking heads.

Anonymous said...

I've never followed politics for various reasons but I guess I'll have to get into it. I can only waste so much time at work reading your stuff on BP. Good times.

Peter said...

I will have my political hand converter up and running by November - bisonbison

Spydog said...

Not sure if I would trust this site. PECOTA waaay underestimated Jay Bruce.

Seriously, though, good luck with your site - Spydog

Brian Holt said...

Guess I'm just repeating everyone else here, but I too am a huge fan of BP, and your work there gives this site immediate legitimacy.

StCheryl said...

OMG! This is so exciting! When we got married, my husband got us a family SABR membership so that we could follow baseball together more intelligently. Maybe this will induce him to follow politics with me!

Anonymous said...

Stick to the data, and you'll be much louder and smarter than the talking heads
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oyunlar
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Nemo said...

Nate you haven't truly been anonymous since at least late June, when I discovered your site and then googled

{ fivethirtyeight.com nate }

... your last name popped up in a couple of the first ten links, and I'm pretty sure I remember that a mention of BP did as well.

-- Ken

Aaron Marshall said...

When Dustin Pedroia wins the MVP award it will have been an excellent year for Nate Silver. Well done. Now if only you'd listened to your readers on Jon Lester...

asdf said...

I just want to say that I am grateful for this incredible site. While some sites like Gallup may be ok for tracking day to day momentum, this is BY FAR the best for looking in depth at the overall race.

THANK YOU.

cicicocuk said...

Guess I'm just repeating everyone else here, but I too am a huge fan of BP, and your work there gives this site immediate legitimacy.

Oyun

MdwstMan said...

Nate ... just a note to tell you that this site is friekin'-nerd-number-awesome !! (this is a compliment).

from one number cruncher to another >> job well done and greatly appreciated.

Larry

Terri said...

Thanks for your hard work. Your site is addictive.

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Alexandra said...

I pretty much worship New York Magazine and saw the article about you a few weeks ago so i decided to check out the site during one of my classes (numerical analysis, ironically!). Good stuff!

John said...

Nate: Please contact me ASAP about your use of Flickr images for the site.

-john allspaw
flickr.com, operations engineering manager

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Anthony said...

Great work! I have been keeping tabs on your site since your appearance on the Colbert Report. You did a remarkable job analyzing the polls. Listening to the pundits, I had a hard time believing the polls had any meaning, but you have shown me that the numbers were there all along. Congrats again on a job well done.

Thanks,
Anthony Churbock
California University of Pennsylvania

Tina said...

I saw you on the Colbert Report which I miss watching since I moved to S.Korea. But once I heard what you do, I went to check out the website right away. I learned about this statistical analysis in my sports economics class at UIC. Sadly, the professor Smith that teaches the class moved. He had us do the same analysis with basketball players and baseball teams. I love how you apply it to the election. I never even looked at the polls any where else. What is your next project? good luck!

Native Washingtonian said...

What can I say? You hit it out of the park. You hit for the cycle. You played inside baseball.

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CorrineA said...

Nate you are an absolute BABE!!!!

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