There are certain pleasures in writing anonymously. Particularly in the political world, where there is a whole mythology associated with anonymity -- think Deep Throat or Primary Colors or Atrios. But I'm fortunate enough to have been granted the opportunity to develop some relationships with larger outlets (you should see these coming to fruition very soon). And it just ain't very professional to keep referring to yourself as a chili pepper.
My real name is Nate Silver and my principal occupation has been as a writer, analyst and partner at a sports media company called Baseball Prospectus. What we do over there and what I'm doing over here are really quite similar. Both baseball and politics are data-driven industries. But a lot of the time, that data might be used badly. In baseball, that may mean looking at a statistic like batting average when things like on-base percentage and slugging percentage are far more correlated with winning ballgames. In politics, that might mean cherry-picking a certain polling result or weaving together a narrative that isn't supported by the demographic evidence.
So if you catch me overusing baseball metaphors in my political writing or political metaphors in my baseball writing -- this is my excuse.
144 comments
wow! i read (and love) your work at bp too! a small world indeed.
Thanks, Matthew. I'm mildly surprised that nobody had figured it out. The Michigan analysis I did last week was basically a lo-fi version of PECOTA.
Heh, I should have guessed. Big fan of BP, have a few of your books.
Poblano, UNMASKED!!!!
Great work Nate.
-Dan (aka dansac @ DKos)
15 most similar districts! How did I miss that?
Goes to show how steeped I am in pecota-speak and methods ... I don't even notice it when applied elsewhere.
Wow - as someone who takes PECOTA pretty seriously (other than it's constant tendency to understate Ichiro!'s numbers) - gotta say I admire your work both here and at BP.
Nate Silver. Sure!!! That sounds like a made up name, much like Wolf Blitzer or Stone Phillips. Anyway, keep up the great work.
Aah, just like the supposed effect on Keith Olbermann, your 538 analyses are steeped in a rigorous sports analyst's viewframe.
Unknowingly that's probably why I enjoyed your posts so much and they have a sense of familiarity.
What are the chances of the San Diego Padres winning the world series while voting at least 50% for Obama?
Heh. You should have chosen a spicier chile because you are the hotness when it comes to crunching the data sets into digestible portions. Thank you and keep up the good work!
The right prop bet there is probably the number of Padres victories on the balance of the season versus Obama electoral votes in California. I'd take the Obama side.
I must say, as good as this website has been, knowing that you work for BP makes it that much better.
That helps explain why I'm always flipping between my Yahoo fantasy baseball screen and your site...! :)
Gotta say, though, I like the "poblano" call-sign - unprofessional, schmunprofessional...
Keep up th good work and dont let the MAN change you!
No shit. It is suiting that a baseball statistician would be good at the political stats as well!
Good job. Keep up the good work on both sites!
C'mon, admit it -- you're actually George Clooney, right? I knew he always was a secret statistician!
As some who loves BP and 538, i can only say, keep up the good work at both sites.
Yout get laid yet?
This is funny-- as my appetite for sabermetrics has grown in the last year+, so has my interest in political polling. No wonder your site had a pull on me.
Wow, as a BP subscriber I should have known. How the hell do you find the time, Nate, do you sleep 3 hours a day or something?
Nate friggin' Silver! You just blew my mind.
How soon until you calculate VORP -- Value Over Replacement Politician.
NOO!!! although i love the work that you do here on 538 and i think it is fitting that you indeed work for baseball, i am sad that you did not stay the "peter parker" route and have your secret identity safe. =)
It's like watching the reveal in the Prestige - they've been telling you the secret the whole time, and you still didn't pick up on it.
That explains why Google Reader has, from the day I subscribed to 538, shown every post as "by Nate" :) You did a good job with your anonymity but obviously not quite a perfect one.
Nice to "meet" you, Nate! Keep up the good work!
I knew it!
Also - ha! Chuck Todd *wishes* he were you!
Why the original name Poblano??? Does it have any meaning or significance? Just curious....
Perhaps you should just change your name to Nate Poblano?
In any event, you have done some outstanding work using available evidence and I t