5.20.2008

Move along, nothing to see here

From the internals that have been released publicly on the Kentucky exit polls, it looks to me like Clinton has about 60 percent of the vote.

She's winning 73 percent of white women, and over the course of the primary season she has polled 14 points stronger among white women than white men. So that would imply 59 percent support from white males. Most likely we're looking at something like the following:

Group         Clinton%  % of Electorate
White Women 73% 48%
White Men 59% 40%
Nonwhites 10% 12%
DISCLAIMER: NOT HARD DATA! PURE SPECULATION ON MY PART!

That calculation would work out to 60 percent. I don't know how much of the remaining 40 percent would go to Obama rather than Edwards/uncommitted.

And of course, exit polls are crap. But you knew that already.

Also, note that the Oregon exit poll is really just a big survey that was conducted from last Tuesday through Sunday. As such, it might not detect any late movement. This is the one exit poll that I'd actually expect to see underestimate Obama's numbers, considering his strong finish in the state.

9 comments

The Dead Guy said...

As a way of comparison - in WV exit polls, Clinton carried 75% of white women and 63% of white men.

Those broke down to 51% and 45% of the WV electorate.

However, again, the big difference between WV and KY is the 8% of AA. what will the turnout be there and what will Obama's %age be there?

Anonymous said...

Exit polls said 31% of Clinton supporters would support Obama whereas 71% of Obama supporters said they would support Clinton if the nominee..

W. Va and Kentucky show their true colors once again.

We can't win wars overseas until we win them here at home.

Anonymous said...

2 points better among W is 4 points better spread. Add the AA higher %age and you have roughly 15% better spread, i.e. 25+.

Ben said...

In the meantime the Oregonian says the turnout is going to top 1M.
Arguably I doubt much of this is for the Republican primary.
Good sign for BO ?

Anonymous said...

Watch the % for Ron Paul in Oregon, I think it could be around 20%

Anonymous said...

Wait Poblano I think I see something here:

Remember I asked you how come Clinton's veer to the right did not help her in IN/NC, seeing that you expect it to help Obama in OR?
But actually we've got caught up in the spot-on nature of your IN prediction and missed the fact that you underpredicted North and overpredicted South.

The very early returns from KY may perhaps go in such a direction? Even worse in the rural, OK in the urban?

And can it be that if we go back to the recent states voting we see that more liberal counties were more Obama than predicted, less liberal were less Obama, and that this simply mostly canceled out in IN/NC?

Anonymous said...

Regarding the Oregon turnout comment - there are only 869,000 registered Dems as of the cut off on April 29th, so your absolute max is probably about 80-85% of that.

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