FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Make your own North Carolina prediction

5.02.2008

Make your own North Carolina prediction

by Nate Silver @ 11:25 AM

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Just fill in the values in yellow.

28 comments

KAP said...: Cool. Love this tool, and I'm definitely gonna be using zohosheets in the future.; May 2, 2008 12:24 PM
Citizen Grim said...: Cool.

I'm getting Clinton +0.2, which may be a bit of a stretch.; May 2, 2008 12:27 PM
jpm said...: Edwards is not on the ballot.; May 2, 2008 1:42 PM
Elliot said...: Just replace "John Edwards" with "Uncommitted/Gravel" (which are both on the ballot).

Incidentally, I'm getting Obama +15.7% (I project that African American turnout will be about 38%, which is about 75% of the portion of Kerry's vote which was African American in North Carolina).; May 2, 2008 2:40 PM
Diamond said...: Despite his turbulent weeks, it will be double digits for Obama - by God's special grace.

In a moment of honesty, John McCain agrees that the war in Iraq was for oil. There's no way he's going to spin this - unless he thinks the American people are fools.

http://digg.com/2008_us_elections/MCCAIN_IRAQ_WAR_WAS_FOR_OIL; May 2, 2008 2:44 PM
Derek said...: Well, this tool is the best demonstration possible that Obama ain't gonna lose NC. My conservative hypotheses are 33% Black turnout, Clinton winning non-Blacks 2 to 1 and Obama winning Blacks 9 to 1. Obama still wins by 4.; May 2, 2008 2:48 PM
CA Pol Junkie said...: The early voting so far has close to 39% African-Americans voting. It won't necessarily be that high in total, but it would appear to be a sign that either African-Americans are more engaged in the election on average or Obama's get out the vote operation is a little better than Clinton's. I figure 35% African-Americans breaking 91-9 for Obama and Clinton winning whites 63-37 for an 11.8% Obama win.; May 2, 2008 6:28 PM
bedir than average said...: meh

It is a delegate race first and foremost. Can you have it pump out the delegate numbers for me?; May 2, 2008 7:10 PM
Anonymous said...: Sweet. I'm getting +13 Obama here, hopefully it'll be even higher.; May 2, 2008 9:26 PM
marathon said...: @ bedir:

CNN has a delegate calculator on their site (I don't have an exact link). You can calculate %s here and plug them in over there for all the states that are left.; May 2, 2008 9:39 PM
bedir than average said...: CNN's delegate calculator acts as if all delegates are at-large.

So it isn't really a useful tool.; May 2, 2008 10:29 PM
marathon said...: True enough. But it's something. It gives a rough idea. And with randomly declaring superdelegates thrown in the mix, any model a week or so out is only going to be so accurate.; May 2, 2008 11:21 PM
Rasmus said...: Technically it´s nothing special, but that tool is nice.
I just wanted to report a new NY poll:
RasmussenReports, Obama +17, Clinton +29, taken 4/299, n=500; May 3, 2008 2:56 PM
Mark said...: I am really hoping you will turn your demographics model on NC with a district by district prediction like you did for Penn.; May 3, 2008 3:11 PM
Rasmus said...: http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/5/1/145210/9316/925/503525

This should be accurate as well.; May 3, 2008 3:55 PM
Liz said...: Love the tool! My prediction is:

White vote:
Clinton:
67%

Obama:
32%

Black turnout = 35%

Black vote:
Clinton:
10%

Obama:
90%

End result:
Clinton - 47.1%
Obama - 52.3%
= Obama +5.2%

I actually think the black vote might be 91% for Obama. I think it'll be 89% for black women, and 93% for black men. I think black women make up a much larger percentage of the black turnout, though.; May 4, 2008 4:11 PM
Glenn said...: actually you can use the CNN or Forbes delegate counter just pretend the percentages means percentage of delegates instead of popular vote. Thats what i did and got some numbers pretty close to the actual results; May 5, 2008 10:21 PM
Anonymous said...: Whites: Clinton 70 percent
Blacks: Clinton 15 percent

Turnout for Blacks: 35 percent

Pay attention to how many Hispanics turn out. NC has a larger Hispanic population than most people realize.; May 6, 2008 3:25 PM
Anonymous said...: People forget that there a lot of people in NC who are registered Democrats who haven't voted Democrat in 30 years but will turn out to vote against Obama because he is black. They wouldn't dare vote for Clinton in the Fall but they will do everything they can to make sure a Black person does not get the nomination. Sad but true; May 6, 2008 3:30 PM
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5.02.2008

Make your own North Carolina prediction

28 comments