5.02.2008

Make your own North Carolina prediction

by Nate Silver @ 11:25 AM
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Just fill in the values in yellow.

 

...see also

28 comments

KAP said...

Cool. Love this tool, and I'm definitely gonna be using zohosheets in the future.

May 2, 2008 12:24 PM  
Citizen Grim said...

Cool.

I'm getting Clinton +0.2, which may be a bit of a stretch.

May 2, 2008 12:27 PM  
jpm said...

Edwards is not on the ballot.

May 2, 2008 1:42 PM  
Elliot said...

Just replace "John Edwards" with "Uncommitted/Gravel" (which are both on the ballot).

Incidentally, I'm getting Obama +15.7% (I project that African American turnout will be about 38%, which is about 75% of the portion of Kerry's vote which was African American in North Carolina).

May 2, 2008 2:40 PM  
Diamond said...

Despite his turbulent weeks, it will be double digits for Obama - by God's special grace.

In a moment of honesty, John McCain agrees that the war in Iraq was for oil. There's no way he's going to spin this - unless he thinks the American people are fools.

http://digg.com/2008_us_elections/MCCAIN_IRAQ_WAR_WAS_FOR_OIL

May 2, 2008 2:44 PM  
Derek said...

Well, this tool is the best demonstration possible that Obama ain't gonna lose NC. My conservative hypotheses are 33% Black turnout, Clinton winning non-Blacks 2 to 1 and Obama winning Blacks 9 to 1. Obama still wins by 4.

May 2, 2008 2:48 PM  
CA Pol Junkie said...

The early voting so far has close to 39% African-Americans voting. It won't necessarily be that high in total, but it would appear to be a sign that either African-Americans are more engaged in the election on average or Obama's get out the vote operation is a little better than Clinton's. I figure 35% African-Americans breaking 91-9 for Obama and Clinton winning whites 63-37 for an 11.8% Obama win.

May 2, 2008 6:28 PM  
bedir than average said...

meh

It is a delegate race first and foremost. Can you have it pump out the delegate numbers for me?

May 2, 2008 7:10 PM  
Anonymous said...

Sweet. I'm getting +13 Obama here, hopefully it'll be even higher.

May 2, 2008 9:26 PM  
marathon said...

@ bedir:

CNN has a delegate calculator on their site (I don't have an exact link). You can calculate %s here and plug them in over there for all the states that are left.

May 2, 2008 9:39 PM  
bedir than average said...

CNN's delegate calculator acts as if all delegates are at-large.

So it isn't really a useful tool.

May 2, 2008 10:29 PM  
marathon said...

True enough. But it's something. It gives a rough idea. And with randomly declaring superdelegates thrown in the mix, any model a week or so out is only going to be so accurate.

May 2, 2008 11:21 PM  
Rasmus said...

Technically it´s nothing special, but that tool is nice.
I just wanted to report a new NY poll:
RasmussenReports, Obama +17, Clinton +29, taken 4/299, n=500

May 3, 2008 2:56 PM  
Mark said...

I am really hoping you will turn your demographics model on NC with a district by district prediction like you did for Penn.

May 3, 2008 3:11 PM  
Rasmus said...

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/5/1/145210/9316/925/503525

This should be accurate as well.

May 3, 2008 3:55 PM  
Liz said...

Love the tool! My prediction is:

White vote:
Clinton:
67%

Obama:
32%

Black turnout = 35%

Black vote:
Clinton:
10%

Obama:
90%

End result:
Clinton - 47.1%
Obama - 52.3%
= Obama +5.2%

I actually think the black vote might be 91% for Obama. I think it'll be 89% for black women, and 93% for black men. I think black women make up a much larger percentage of the black turnout, though.

May 4, 2008 4:11 PM  
Glenn said...

actually you can use the CNN or Forbes delegate counter just pretend the percentages means percentage of delegates instead of popular vote. Thats what i did and got some numbers pretty close to the actual results

May 5, 2008 10:21 PM  
Anonymous said...

Whites: Clinton 70 percent
Blacks: Clinton 15 percent

Turnout for Blacks: 35 percent

Pay attention to how many Hispanics turn out. NC has a larger Hispanic population than most people realize.

May 6, 2008 3:25 PM  
Anonymous said...

People forget that there a lot of people in NC who are registered Democrats who haven't voted Democrat in 30 years but will turn out to vote against Obama because he is black. They wouldn't dare vote for Clinton in the Fall but they will do everything they can to make sure a Black person does not get the nomination. Sad but true

May 6, 2008 3:30 PM  
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August 3, 2009 11:20 PM  
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艾葳酒店經紀是合法的公司工作環境高雅時尚，無業績壓力，無脫秀無喝酒壓力，高層次會員制客源，工作輕鬆，可日領、現領。
一般的酒店經紀只會在水水們第一次上班和領薪水時出現而已，對水水們的上班安全一點保障都沒有！艾葳酒店經紀公司的水水們上班時全程媽咪作陪，不需擔心！只提供最優質的酒店打工,酒店上班,酒店打工環境、上班條件給水水們。心動嗎!? 趕快來填寫你的酒店上班履歷表

水水們妳有缺現金、有卡債、缺錢卡奴的煩腦嗎?想到日本留學日本打工嗎?妳是工讀生找工作??想要擁有高時薪又輕鬆的夜間兼職工作,打工機會和,假日打工,兼職工作日領假日打工的機會嗎??想實現夢想卻又缺錢沒錢嗎!??整天還在煩腦如何賺錢有什麼賺錢方法,和賺錢最快方法!?,想要打工,日領工作,短期打工,兼差工作,打工兼差工作嗎!?,
請加入我們艾葳酒店經紀公司工作單純輕鬆”高時薪”又可日領徵想要當傳播妹,上班小姐,酒店兼差,酒店兼職,歡迎學生打工,!!!
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September 6, 2009 5:29 AM  
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November 16, 2009 8:37 PM  

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