Firstly, our best wishes to Senator Ted Kennedy.
While Barack Obama appears to have a fairly safe lead in Oregon overall, both SurveyUSA and American Research Group have the race essentially tied among people who have already mailed in their ballots. Should Obama be worried?
I'm guessing not for a couple of reasons.
1. Neither candidate is acting like they're sweating the result in Oregon. While Barack Obama is out there today, he's spent his last couple of days in South Dakota and Michigan. And Clinton has Bill out in Oregon today rather than campaigning there herself.
2. As we noted in North Carolina, early voters tend to be older -- a key Clinton demographic.
3. Turnout is probably easier to estimate in Oregon than in most other states, as it's a closed primary and has a tradition of strong turnout. So, it's unlikely that the pollsters are making wild assumptions with their likely voter models.
I do think the result in Oregon could turn out to be closer than expected. But I don't think the outcome is in all that much doubt.
EDIT: To point #1 above, see this item from The Swamp:[T]here will be no head-to-head combat before Tuesday's voting deadline in Oregon's vote-by-mail primary. After dropping in for a day of made-for-TV campaigning, Clinton scrapped her Saturday plans here and headed for Kentucky, which also votes Tuesday. That leaves Barack Obama alone in this state all weekend, starting today with a rally in the Southern Oregon town of Roseburg, and continuing tomorrow in Portland and rodeo hub Pendleton.
Say what you will about Clinton's schedule, but know this: Some of her allies say privately it's not close to the full-court press she would need to upset Obama in Oregon.
5.17.2008
Hope for Hillary in Oregon?
@ 11:55 AM
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An ARG poll poblano? Dude, Bennett is still being a dick (HA HA).
I wouldn't worry about it. Poblano won every news cycle and remains with his credibility intact.
In the meantime, ARG does do polls, which Poblano weights appropriately.
McCain now leads Obama in both tracking polls nationally (+1 in Rasmussen, +3 in Gallup). Looks like he won the appeasement fight with Obama.
Anonymous,
I think the appeasement fight shows that McCain is further consolidating the base. But still doesn't look good for Obama given that Clinton leads McCain at +2.
Notably, Clinton is ALSO down compared to where she was against McCain a few days ago. Additionally, Obama's been trending down slightly against McCain since Monday (before the appeasement flap). I think we may need to wait another 4-5 days to truly grasp whether this fight hurt Obama.
Barring a major blunder, Obama is too far ahead to lose.
He has also inspired millions of Americans to believe in themselves, and that all of the small pieces we give can come together to create great change.
I made this painting with that in mind.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dwA4OLFZ0yc
http://www.alternet.org/election08/85549/?page=2
Wow, your great analysis starts to pay out.
I saw your analysis on the AA turnout and its impact on the Obama-McCain race, but you got paid for it?
It looks like that (and it´s great that you get something in return for your hard work, I think I´ll make a contribution in the next weeks).
"There are scenarios where you could really have -- not a landslide -- but Obama winning 350-plus electoral votes just with a mild increase in African-American turnout."
?
Yeah, but you have this scenarios even now.
Just look at your EV-Distribution chart, even if I miss a y-axis-scale there.
The first trial heat I got when I opened my spreadsheet today was a 389 EV Obama victory (you know, I made a bad copy of your spreadsheet with some changes in the methodology that don´t account for more than 1% difference)
Obama takes
CA, CO, CT, DC, DE, FL, HI, IA, IL,MA,MD,ME,MI,MN,MO,NC,ND,NE (ok, not CD-03),NH,NJ,NM, loses NV, wins NY, loses OH, wins OR, PA, RI, SC, TX, VT, VA, WA, WI.
OK, except for NV and OH he won almost all states where he has a realistic chance, but it´s possible. Even with a statewide random number of +1,2 (in a range of -2-+2, so its not best case) and good to great random results in the most regions and states (except Acela, but he could win there even with a -2,3 random number)
You could also give him Georgia,Nevada and Ohio and take away Missouri, North Carolina, North Dakota, NE statewide and CD 03 (he got 49,95% in that NE simulation), NH, SC and TX and WI.
Maybe that´s more realistic and still gives him 342 EV.
And that´s without any changes in the AA turnout.
Single simulations are not important.
At the same time I can think of a scenario (and I had to search a lot for it, but I got it out with the actual polling numbers) where Obama WINS ALASKA and still gets just 125 EV. Why? He loses CA, CO, DE, FL, MA, MD, ME, MI, MO, NH, NM, NV, OH, PA, and WA-
and when he lost Wisconsin in that 342 EV simulation, he wins it in the 125 EV heat.
Rasmus,
I volunteered my time -- did not get paid for that work.
I'm hoping that Hillary has realized that she was dividing the dems and is now trying to avoid making that rift bigger and maybe taking steps to heal it
Clinton is now 3 points ahead in win percentage. For perspective, if the whole election translates to thousands of American soldier's lives and a million Iraqi lives, that 3 percent is about a hundred American soldiers and tens of thousands of Iraqis.
Of course, I know, this is all way inside the margin of error. But it is definitely interesting. You have already mentioned that it may be partly because our purple state data is going stale, and the non-purples are polarizing. I was wondering if you can see any evidence that it is because diehard Clinton supporters are getting more hardline anti-Obama (that is, telling pollsters they will vote for McCain)? If that is the case, I would expect much of it to heal before the election.
The key word here is "diehard". Obviously any Clinton advantage comes from voters she would get but Obama wouldn't. I am asking if there is some way to rate the effect of True Believers. For instance, is the "Clinton $" effect on Obama's numbers moving downwards?
Finally, I would still love to see what your coefficients come out to if you remove the fundraising variables. This would obviously give a less-accurate regression, but it would give clearer definition to the strictly demographic effects.
Ha ha, Bennett is a dweeb. He has 2 criticisms for Poblano:
1. Turnout was off. But he didn't predict it, so we can't compare his ability. Nor does he say that Poblano's mistake was to even try to predict - because that would keep him from gloating so much over the numbers.
2. His poll "came closer even with the 6% undecided" - actually, given Edwards's unexpectedly good performance, that 6% was what saved him.
But the real bonus dweebery is when he calls 40.08% "over 40%". Has the man never heard of significant figures?
I talked to some political scientists at my Ivy League University. Two of them were familiar with ARG, and they both said it was one of the worst polling places around. One of them said that RealClearPolitics reports but does not count its numbers when calculating the average of various polls. So Poblano's index which grades ARG so low seems to conform with the "expert" opinions. I am no expert, but I think Bennett is lame to criticize Poblano when he failed to take on his challenge. A lame chicken, is what I say. Bennett -- if you are reading this: "baakkk, baakkk, baakkk, you chicken."
Regarding Polling in Oregon. Any poll of those who already turned in their ballots is skewed toward an older demographic. In every recent election the trend has been for older voters to mail ballots in early and for younger voters to procrastinate. (We know this because the counties record ballots when received ... and campaigns can track exactly who voted over the course of the mail-in period.)
This demographic differential might also explain why Clinton would would want to campaign earlier in the mail-in period and Obama later.
Childishness aside, ARG did poll WV better than any other polling firm, 66-23-5 versus actual 67-26-7.
Not sure I buy that Clinton's supporters vote relatively early. Isn't the enthusiasm supposed to be with Obama? Wouldn't all of his student and professional supporters have the motivation and time to get their ballots in as soon as possible, while Clinton's working class stiffs are supposedly discouraged and can't find the time between feeding the kids and their second job to return the ballot? I have to agree with point #1 that the campaigns must know more than we do, but there's the possibility that Clinton has finally learned to manage expectations. Rather than make a huge push for the win and come up short as in NC, she's content to lose by a narrower than expected margin and say that voters are having second thoughts about Obama. Oregon has more value to her as a superdelegate argument than for its pledged delegates or popular vote.
Older voters do mail in their ballots regardless of enthusiasm levels.
Polling is anywhere from 5% to 20% for Obama. The state is most similar to Colorado, Washington, Minnesota and Wisconsin.
Most defintely not West Virginia or Kentucky. Democrats in those states are called Republicans in Oregon.
Oregon is very anti-war and the urban Democrats tend to be very progressive, not a lot of support among progressive Democrats for Hillary.
To the author--you should know the SUSA "already voted" totals are flatly unbelievable, because while they were getting 43%, the SoS office was reporting 10-13% returned. They're mailed to county offices, so almost all get in within a day, 2 max. I can understand a little bleed, but 30 points? In the Senate race off the same poll, I think 17% apparently turned it in marked "undecided." So grain of salt.
Something about that poll just doesn't seem right from here on the ground. This isn't a state where the rural people are Clinton types per se. It may be perfectly valid, but covering one half of the state's people in a relatively small area, there are pockets at BEST, of Clinton support.
SUSA does generally good work so I can't say ignore it, but the in-state Hibbits poll for KPTV/Tribune showed O+20, and I think that's closer to the mark. I certainly trust Hibbit's ability to poll Oregon better than SUSA's at this stage. I not only see Obama voters, I see people motivated for him. He's on a lot of lips, and I'm going to suggest he draws just as many as Kerry did today, 50,000 or more in the bowl of Waterfront Park in Portland. The Decemberists will open; it's a perfect weather day.
I may be in an amazing bubble from reality, but I think the question in Oregon is plus or minus 20%, not will he win or will it be big enough to get the delegates. Turnout looks historic, definitely approaching general election levels.
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