* But were afraid to ask.
And ... here's what you can learn from that chart:
1. If Florida and Michigan are not seated (Scenario A), Obama will clinch an outright majority of pledged delegates on May 20th (Oregon/Kentucky), barring an act of God.
2. If Florida is fully seated, Obama will probably not clinch a majority of pledged delegates on May 20th, regardless of which plan is accepted in Michigan.
3. However, even if Florida is fully seated, Obama is somewhat likely to clinch a plurality of pledged delegates on May 20th. He is more likely than not to clinch a plurality if Florida is fully seated and the Michigan compromise plan is accepted (Scenario C). He is about 50:50 to clinch a plurality if Florida is fully seated and the Clinton position is accepted (Scenario D).
4. If half the Florida delegation is seated, Obama will almost certainly clinch a plurality of pledged delegates on May 20th, regardless of which Michigan plan is accepted.
5. If half the Florida delegation is seated, Obama may also clinch a majority of pledged delegates on May 20th. He is about 50:50 to do so if the compromise position is accepted in Michigan (Scenario F). He has an outside position of doing so if the Clinton position is accepted in Michigan (Scenario G).
6. Any pledged delegate scenarios that Obama does not clinch on May 20th, he will very probably clinch on June 1 (Puerto Rico)
5.09.2008
Everything you always wanted to know about Obama's pledged delegate clinching scenarios*
@ 2:18 AM
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I'd be really curious what you think of this analysis of WV (it's right up your alley): West Virginia is tailor-made for Hillary Clinton. It also calculates Clinton +12 (20:8) split as her natural base for the state.
As long as Obama makes another meaningful visit to the state, I think Obama's endorsements and (more importantly) superior field make a +10 or, even +8, Clinton pickup more likely. The delegate plan is such that making up just a little bit of headway in vote %'s will swing a couple more delegates to Obama here and there.
With your precision at modeling results, I'm surprised you'd grant room for the randomness of 'acts of God'.
Though I shudder to consider such possibilities, it would seem important to also grant a fearsome exception to that other theological miracle worker, the Lone Gunman, that has been far more active in disrupting the pursuit of responsive government than the Great Bearded Guy In The Sky.
The really interesting date is June 3, not May 20; I think the Obama camp plans to declare victory outright then (which in theater terms *must* be done based on an election victory, not duperdel endorsements). To do this, all they need (by their own math) is to capture some 60 undeclareds by then (there will be add-ons too), which is within the current pace. The beauty is that they should not get too *many* superdels between now and June 3, to ensure the elected victory narrative: they should be exactly 10 delegates short by June 3!
I would imagine, since the Obama campaign badly wants to claim "victory" on May 20, that they would hold off on making any sort of deal on Florida and Michigan until after that date.
Anon,
I would think so too, and since the Clinton folks apparently turned down the deal put forth by the Michigan Dems, they'll have a pretty good excuse for filibustering.
Just to further muddy the waters: I wouldn't mind seeing a "1/2, 1/2" set of scenarios, where Florida and Michigan are both cut in half before one of those Michigan scenarios (split, compromise, Clinton) are pushed through.
Am I the only one who notices that the "compromise" solution is biased toward Clinton? It's not splitting the difference evenly. Yeah, it's a one delegate difference, but I'm just sayin'.
doktarr, I'm with you on Michigan in wanting to see a 50% reduction scenario. I've heard Dean talk about any resolution to FL/MI must take into account the fact that 48 other states followed the rules (or something like that). I take that to mean the DNC will absolutely NOT want to seat full MI and/or FL delegations even if the Obama and Clinton campaigns agree.
From a fairnes standpoint, I absolutely think the MI "compromise" is a bad deal for Obama. Turnout, polls, demographics, etc. all show that this election was and is not a fair reflection of voter preference in Michigan, besides the basic unfairness of changing the rules after the fact. If I were Obama, I would not want to agree to anything other than 50-50 split until the nomination was 100% wrapped up. As to Florida, there seems to be a much better argument for Clinton, even though the lack of campaigning probably hurt Obama.
Maybe Poblana can do a analysis of MI and FL to see how the election results compare to past demographic support?
What effect would an Edwards endorsement or withdrawal* have? If he withdraws, the delegates are reapportioned by relative totals in the state, right? and if he endorses, they are still bound to vote for him on first balloting, but they can promise to go to Obama on second ballot? These are just my guesses, can anyone confirm? So both of these numbers are, in principle, calculable.
*(withdrawal - as far as I know, he officially only "suspended" his campaign, I think he still has the further option of withdrawing)
Another Mike,
Just as an aside, it's not too tough to come up with the 50% Michigan scenarios on your own. The "split" scenarios are functionally exactly the same (scenario E), so Obama would need 49 pledged delegates to clinch the majority. The 50% seated, "compromise" scenario means he needs something like 51 pledged delegates to clinch the majority. In both cases, a 5/20 clinch is still likely.
Of course, all of these questions will be post-facto arguments, since any deal is likely to take place on May 31st. Obama will have a majority of the known certifiable pledged delegates on 5/20. Even if we get one of the worst-case scenarios and the majority is "un-clinched" on 5/31, Obama re-clinches the pledged delegate majority the next day after Puerto Rico. Then he racks up some more superdelegates, and announces he's over the 2025 (or 2100, as it would be with 50% of the FL/MI pledged delegates seated and no superdelegates) after winning Montana and South Dakota.
You do great work poblano. We really appreciate it. However, it appears that you have forgotten the Hillary-silver-bullet scenario in Michigan. That scenario is that she gets all the delegates elected to her slate (all 73) and Obama gets a big fat Zero! Thats what she has to be angling for, otherwise its clear that she is gone.
Even if they seated the delegates as they stand - that is, "uncommitted" really is uncommitted - the large majority of those uncommitted delegates would, in practice, vote anti-Hillary, as they were elected to do. At best, a "magic bullet" would buy her another 10 delegate swing - still not enough to take the majority of the "pledged" delegates.
amazing stuff. I do think that Obama should hold off on declaring victory until June 3 as to not piss off Clinton supporters. Hopefully Clinton has enough class to concede without forcing Obama into having to declare victory in this way.
This is a great analysis. Thanks.
Within the political science literature there are several "end game" calculations that have been used during the post-McGovern/Fraser reforms era. Paul Gurian at the University of Georgia has extended the relevant ones to the current race for the Democratic nomination. You and your readers can see more here.
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