* But were afraid to ask.
And ... here's what you can learn from that chart:
1. If Florida and Michigan are not seated (Scenario A), Obama will clinch an outright majority of pledged delegates on May 20th (Oregon/Kentucky), barring an act of God.
2. If Florida is fully seated, Obama will probably not clinch a majority of pledged delegates on May 20th, regardless of which plan is accepted in Michigan.
3. However, even if Florida is fully seated, Obama is somewhat likely to clinch a plurality of pledged delegates on May 20th. He is more likely than not to clinch a plurality if Florida is fully seated and the Michigan compromise plan is accepted (Scenario C). He is about 50:50 to clinch a plurality if Florida is fully seated and the Clinton position is accepted (Scenario D).
4. If half the Florida delegation is seated, Obama will almost certainly clinch a plurality of pledged delegates on May 20th, regardless of which Michigan plan is accepted.
5. If half the Florida delegation is seated, Obama may also clinch a majority of pledged delegates on May 20th. He is about 50:50 to do so if the compromise position is accepted in Michigan (Scenario F). He has an outside position of doing so if the Clinton position is accepted in Michigan (Scenario G).
6. Any pledged delegate scenarios that Obama does not clinch on May 20th, he will very probably clinch on June 1 (Puerto Rico)
5.09.2008
Everything you always wanted to know about Obama's pledged delegate clinching scenarios*
@ 2:18 AM
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
18 comments
I'd be really curious what you think of this analysis of WV (it's right up your alley): West Virginia is tailor-made for Hillary Clinton. It also calculates Clinton +12 (20:8) split as her natural base for the state.
As long as Obama makes another meaningful visit to the state, I think Obama's endorsements and (more importantly) superior field make a +10 or, even +8, Clinton pickup more likely. The delegate plan is such that making up just a little bit of headway in vote %'s will swing a couple more delegates to Obama here and there.
With your precision at modeling results, I'm surprised you'd grant room for the randomness of 'acts of God'.
Though I shudder to consider such possibilities, it would seem important to also grant a fearsome exception to that other theological miracle worker, the Lone Gunman, that has been far more active in disrupting the pursuit of responsive government than the Great Bearded Guy In The Sky.
The really interesting date is June 3, not May 20; I think the Obama camp plans to declare victory outright then (which in theater terms *must* be done based on an election victory, not duperdel endorsements). To do this, all they need (by their own math) is to capture some 60 undeclareds by then (there will be add-ons too), which is within the current pace. The beauty is that they should not get too *many* superdels between now and June 3, to ensure the elected victory narrative: they should be exactly 10 delegates short by June 3!
I would imagine, since the Obama campaign badly wants to claim "victory" on May 20, that they would hold off on making any sort of deal on Florida and Michigan until after that date.
Anon,
I would think so too, and since the Clinton folks apparently turned down the deal put forth by the Michigan Dems, they'll have a pretty good excuse for filibustering.
Just to further muddy the waters: I wouldn't mind seeing a "1/2, 1/2" set of scenarios, where Florida and Michigan are both cut in half before one of those Michigan scenarios (split, compromise, Clinton) are pushed through.
Am I the only one who notices that the "compromise" solution is biased toward Clinton? It's not splitting the difference evenly. Yeah, it's a one delegate difference, but I'm just sayin'.
doktarr, I'm with you on Michigan in wanting to see a 50% reduction scenario. I've heard Dean talk about any resolution to FL/MI must take into account the fact that 48 other states followed the rules (or something like that). I take that to mean the DNC will absolutely NOT want to seat full MI and/or FL delegations even if the Obama and Clinton campaigns agree.
From a fairnes standpoint, I absolutely think the MI "compromise" is a bad deal for Obama. Turnout, polls, demographics, etc. all show that this election was and is not a fair reflection of voter preference in Michigan, besides the basic unfairness of changing the rules after the fact. If I were Obama, I would not want to agree to anything other than 50-50 split until the nomination was 100% wrapped up. As to Florida, there seems to be a much better argument for Clinton, even though the lack of campaigning probably hurt Obama.
Maybe Poblana can do a analysis of MI and FL to see how the election results compare to past demographic support?
What effect would an Edwards endorsement or withdrawal* have? If he withdraws, the delegates are reapportioned by relative totals in the state, right? and if he endorses, they are still bound to vote for him on first balloting, but they can promise to go to Obama on second ballot? These are just my guesses, can anyone confirm? So both of these numbers are, in principle, calculable.
*(withdrawal - as far as I know, he officially only "suspended" his campaign, I think he still has the further option of withdrawing)
Another Mike,
Just as an aside, it's not too tough to come up with the 50% Michigan scenarios on your own. The "split" scenarios are functionally exactly the same (scenario E), so Obama would need 49 pledged delegates to clinch the majority. The 50% seated, "compromise" scenario means he needs something like 51 pledged delegates to clinch the majority. In both cases, a 5/20 clinch is still likely.
Of course, all of these questions will be post-facto arguments, since any deal is likely to take place on May 31st. Obama will have a majority of the known certifiable pledged delegates on 5/20. Even if we get one of the worst-case scenarios and the majority is "un-clinched" on 5/31, Obama re-clinches the pledged delegate majority the next day after Puerto Rico. Then he racks up some more superdelegates, and announces he's over the 2025 (or 2100, as it would be with 50% of the FL/MI pledged delegates seated and no superdelegates) after winning Montana and South Dakota.
You do great work poblano. We really appreciate it. However, it appears that you have forgotten the Hillary-silver-bullet scenario in Michigan. That scenario is that she gets all the delegates elected to her slate (all 73) and Obama gets a big fat Zero! Thats what she has to be angling for, otherwise its clear that she is gone.
Even if they seated the delegates as they stand - that is, "uncommitted" really is uncommitted - the large majority of those uncommitted delegates would, in practice, vote anti-Hillary, as they were elected to do. At best, a "magic bullet" would buy her another 10 delegate swing - still not enough to take the majority of the "pledged" delegates.
amazing stuff. I do think that Obama should hold off on declaring victory until June 3 as to not piss off Clinton supporters. Hopefully Clinton has enough class to concede without forcing Obama into having to declare victory in this way.
This is a great analysis. Thanks.
Within the political science literature there are several "end game" calculations that have been used during the post-McGovern/Fraser reforms era. Paul Gurian at the University of Georgia has extended the relevant ones to the current race for the Democratic nomination. You and your readers can see more here.
情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,美國aneros,rudeboy,英國rudeboy,英國Rocksoff,德國Fun Factory,Fun Factory,英國甜筒造型按摩座,甜筒造型按摩座,英國Rock Chic ,瑞典 Lelo ,英國Emotional Bliss,英國 E.B,荷蘭 Natural Contours,荷蘭 N C,美國 OhMiBod,美國 OMB,Naughti Nano ,音樂按摩棒,ipod按摩棒,美國 The Screaming O,美國TSO,美國TOPCO,美國Doc Johnson,美國CA Exotic,美國CEN,美國Nasstoy,美國Tonguejoy,英國Je Joue,美國Pipe Dream,美國California Exotic,美國NassToys,美國Vibropod,美國Penthouse,仿真按摩棒,矽膠按摩棒,猛男倒模,真人倒模,仿真倒模,PJUR,Zestra,適趣液,穿戴套具,日本NPG,雙頭龍,FANCARNAL,日本NIPPORI,日本GEL,日本Aqua Style,美國WET,費洛蒙,費洛蒙香水,仿真名器,av女優,打炮,做愛,性愛,口交,吹喇叭,肛交,魔女訓練大師,無線跳蛋,有線跳蛋,震動棒,震動保險套,震動套,TOY-情趣用品,情趣用品網,情趣購物網,成人用品網,情趣用品討論,成人購物網,鎖精套,鎖精環,持久環,持久套,拉珠,逼真按摩棒,名器,超名器,逼真老二,電動自慰,自慰,打手槍,仿真女郎,SM道具,SM,性感內褲,仿真按摩棒,pornograph,hunter系列,h動畫,成人動畫,成人卡通,情色動畫,情色卡通,色情動畫,色情卡通,無修正,禁斷,人妻,極悪調教,姦淫,近親相姦,顏射,盜攝,偷拍,本土自拍,素人自拍,公園露出,街道露出,野外露出,誘姦,迷姦,輪姦,凌辱,痴漢,痴女,素人娘,中出,巨乳,調教,潮吹,av,a片,成人影片,成人影音,線上影片,成人光碟,成人無碼,成人dvd,情色影音,情色影片,情色dvd,情色光碟,航空版,薄碼,色情dvd,色情影音,色情光碟,線上A片,免費A片,A片下載,成人電影,色情電影,TOKYO HOT,SKY ANGEL,一本道,SOD,S1,ALICE JAPAN,皇冠系列,老虎系列,東京熱,亞熱,武士系列,新潮館,情趣用品,情趣,情趣商品,情趣網站,跳蛋,按摩棒,充氣娃娃,自慰套,G點,性感內衣,情趣內衣,角色扮演,生日禮物,生日精品,自慰,打手槍,潮吹,高潮,後庭,情色論譠,影片下載,遊戲下載,手機鈴聲,音樂下載,開獎號碼,統一發票號碼,夜市,統一發票對獎,保險套,做愛,減肥,美容,瘦身,當舖,軟體下載,汽車,機車,手機,來電答鈴,週年慶,美食,徵信社,網頁設計,網站設計,室內設計,靈異照片,同志,聊天室,運動彩券,大樂透,威力彩,搬家公司,除蟲,偷拍,自拍,無名破解,av女優,小說,民宿,大樂透開獎號碼,大樂透中獎號碼,威力彩開獎號碼,討論區,痴漢,懷孕,美女交友,交友,日本av,日本,機票,香水,股市,股市行情, 股市分析,租房子,成人影片,免費影片,醫學美容,免費算命,算命,姓名配對,姓名學,姓名學免費,遊戲,好玩遊戲,好玩遊戲區,線上遊戲,新遊戲,漫畫,線上漫畫,動畫,成人圖片,桌布,桌布下載,電視節目表,線上電視,線上a片,線上掃毒,線上翻譯,購物車,身分證製造機,身分證產生器,手機,二手車,中古車,法拍屋,歌詞,音樂,音樂網,火車,房屋,情趣用品,情趣,情趣商品,情趣網站,跳蛋,按摩棒,充氣娃娃,自慰套, G點,性感內衣,情趣內衣,角色扮演,生日禮物,精品,禮品,自慰,打手槍,潮吹,高潮,後庭,情色論譠,影片下載,遊戲下載,手機鈴聲,音樂下載,開獎號碼,統一發票,夜市,保險套,做愛,減肥,美容,瘦身,當舖,軟體下載,汽車,機車,手機,來電答鈴,週年慶,美食,徵信社,網頁設計,網站設計,室內設計,靈異照片,同志,聊天室,運動彩券,,大樂透,威力彩,搬家公司,除蟲,偷拍,自拍,無名破解, av女優,小說,民宿,大樂透開獎號碼,大樂透中獎號碼,威力彩開獎號碼,討論區,痴漢,懷孕,美女交友,交友,日本av ,日本,機票,香水,股市,股市行情,股市分析,租房子,成人影片,免費影片,醫學美容,免費算命,算命,姓名配對,姓名學,姓名學免費,遊戲,好玩遊戲,好玩遊戲區,線上遊戲,新遊戲,漫畫,線上漫畫,動畫,成人圖片,桌布,桌布下載,電視節目表,線上電視,線上a片,線上a片,線上翻譯,購物車,身分證製造機,身分證產生器,手機,二手車,中古車,法拍屋,歌詞,音樂,音樂網,借錢,房屋,街頭籃球,找工作,旅行社,六合彩,婚友,單身聯誼,未婚聯誼,婚友,交友,交友,婚友社,婚友社,婚友社,大陸新娘,大陸新娘,越南新娘,越南新娘,外籍新娘,外籍新娘,台中坐月子中心,搬家公司,搬家公司,中和搬家,台北搬家,板橋搬家,新店搬家,線上客服,網頁設計,線上客服,網頁設計,植牙,關鍵字,關鍵字,seo,seo,網路排名,自然排序,網路排名軟體,交友,越南新娘,婚友社,外籍新娘,大陸新娘,越南新娘,交友,外籍新娘,視訊聊天,大陸新娘,婚友社,婚友,越南新娘,大陸新娘,越南新娘,視訊交友,外籍新娘,網路排名,網路排名軟體,網站排名優化大師,關鍵字排名大師,網站排名seo大師,關鍵字行銷專家,關鍵字,seo,關鍵字行銷,網頁排序,網頁排名,關鍵字大師,seo大,自然排名,網站排序,網路行銷創業,汽車借款,汽車借錢,汽車貸款,汽車貸款,拉皮,抽脂,近視雷射,隆乳,隆鼻,變性,雙眼皮,眼袋,牙齒,下巴,植牙,人工植牙,植髮,雷射美容,膠原蛋白,皮膚科,醫學美容,玻尿酸,肉毒桿菌,微晶瓷,電波拉皮,脈衝光,關鍵字,關鍵字,seo,seo,網路排名,自然排序,網路排名軟體,英語演講,托福,Toastmaster,
^^ nice blog!! ^@^
徵信, 徵信, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 感情挽回, 婚姻挽回, 挽回婚姻, 挽回感情, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信, 捉姦, 徵信公司, 通姦, 通姦罪, 抓姦, 抓猴, 捉猴, 捉姦, 監聽, 調查跟蹤, 反跟蹤, 外遇問題, 徵信, 捉姦, 女人徵信, 女子徵信, 外遇問題, 女子徵信, 徵信社, 外遇, 徵信公司, 徵信網, 外遇蒐證, 抓姦, 抓猴, 捉猴, 調查跟蹤, 反跟蹤, 感情挽回, 挽回感情, 婚姻挽回, 挽回婚姻, 外遇沖開, 抓姦, 女子徵信, 外遇蒐證, 外遇, 通姦, 通姦罪, 贍養費, 徵信, 徵信社, 抓姦, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信公司, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信公司, 徵信社, 徵信公司, 女人徵信, 外遇
徵信, 徵信網, 徵信社, 徵信網, 外遇, 徵信, 徵信社, 抓姦, 徵信, 女人徵信, 徵信社, 女人徵信社, 外遇, 抓姦, 徵信公司, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 女人徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 女子徵信社, 女子徵信社, 女子徵信社, 女子徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,
^^ nice blog!! thanks a lot! ^^
徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 外遇, 抓姦, 離婚, 外遇,離婚,
徵信, 外遇, 離婚, 徵信社, 徵信, 外遇, 抓姦, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 外遇, 徵信社, 徵信, 外遇, 抓姦, 徵信社, 征信, 征信, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 征信, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信, 外遇, 抓姦, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,
艾葳酒店經紀招兵買馬!!
徵專業的酒店經紀,想要去打工的水水,想要短期酒店小姐,打工兼差,酒店兼差,日領,兼差,現領,兼職,酒店上班,酒店打工,假日兼職,兼職工作日領,
等相關服務 幫您快速的實現您的夢想~!!
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店經紀,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店工作,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
菲
梵,
Post a Comment