bumped and rearranged for ease of reading -p
Two things you should not pay attention to tomorrow without proper context:
(1) Leaked exit polls, which have been way off this cycle, and been slanted an average of 7 points in Obama's direction. A substantial Clinton lead in the exit polls might be taken modestly more seriously than, say, something that showed Obama three points ahead, but these things aren't designed for what you think they're designed for -- just ignore them.
(2) Very early returns, such as in the first hour after polls close. Because there are such profound regional differences in the way that Pennsylvania polls, the results will be almost entirely a function of where the numbers are coming in from. Odds are that rural areas will report their results before the cities, which means that the early numbers should favor Clinton (this may actually be a nontrivial advantage to her in terms of media narrative; the race could very easily be called for her when the ticker shows Clinton ahead by 14, but things could close to within 8 points once all votes were counted).
However, you can pay a little more attention to the early returns by using the scorecard below, which lists the regional results from among five pollsters that provided these breakdowns, plus our regression-based estimate. For example, the polls say to expect about a 10-point margin for Clinton in Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) -- if there are a substantial number of reutrns in from Allegheny and they're showing a tie, that's probably good news for Obama. Each pollster uses slightly different regional definitions so these are not exact, but I've done the best I can. I've also listed the approximate percentage of the electorate in each area.
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
Pennsylvania Scorecard
-- Nate at 5:09 PM
Labels: pennsylvania, primaries
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16 comments
Looks like I'm in first. My own models have it at 8.9%, with the low and high ends of the confidence interval at 6.2% and 11.6%
My instinct tells me 12 point HRC win, but I hope it's closer than that.
Politico says in PA, early results usually come from the cities first.
Here's the money quote
The cities and suburbs usually report their returns first, which gives the candidate favored in those areas a quick – and sometimes fleeting – lead. The conservative-leaning small towns through the center of the state usually filter in much later in the evening.
http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=753FC771-3048-5C12-00929EBFEB1A61A1
jr,
That's interesting ... I think I was casting aspersions on Philadelphia based on the problems that cities like Milwaukee, St. Louis and Cleveland have.
It's actually a fairly big plus for Obama if the election stays closer for longer into the evening, IMO.
I agree with you and I believed the conventional wisdom that usually rural parts of the state report their results first. Usually, a lead doesn't change too much and if the cities report first, that should be good for Obama as you said-at least initially.
Reports always come in from Philly and its suburbs first. I know that's backwards from a lot of states, but it is a truism in Pennsylvania.
http://pennsylvania-primary.com/2008/04/22/what-to-watch-for-during-the-day/
Does anyone know of someplace that will text me returns from PA as they come in? I'm going nuts trying to find something. Didn't think it would be this hard. Thanks!
Wow - hardly anyone lives in northwest Pennsylvania!
Or is it just that they're all Republicans?
An Obama 3 point lead in leaked exits would be huge. Why? Because it means that a double digit loss isn't likely. Clinton's going to win the state; the question is how it will affect the big picture.
Numbers...confusing! Can't you just make a funny video like this guy? http://www.236.com/video/?embed_video=1509327826
11% in metro pittsburgh is unlikely to go plus 36 for HRC- can't be right.
would would be that she will only win by less than 9 points.
from FirstRead earlier regarding the timing of Philly returns:
"Keep this in mind: While the Philly region has reported its vote fairly quickly the last two election cycles, before 2004, the vote count has been very slow from the area. If the vote count is slow in this area tonight, then expect a couple of things: 1) the networks and AP will hold off on calling this race too quickly and 2) Clinton could have what appears to be a VERY big lead in early returns since most of Obama's vote is in the Philly media market."
Anyone with news of miscounts by the evil machines, please post. I believe that many of the polls are off because the machines are miscounting. Pennsylvania has the longest history, actually, of doctored votes and miscalculatings electronic machines.
I live in the Pittsburgh Suburbs. I echo what was posted by others. I can tell you from watching years of PA Politics, the results from Allegheny and Philadelphia Counties usually come in first.
Yes, as anonymous pointed out above, there were times when Philly was slow. But, that is not the usual occurrence. I remember watching the returns from the Wofford/Thornburg US Senate race back in the early 1990s (pre-internet, this was on TV). In that race, Pittsburgh and Philly came in first.
You should expect to see a surprisingly large lead for BHO in the first hour or so of results counting. Then, those numbers will get closer.
Obama being up early and Clinton coming on late is consistent with everything I've seen thus far. It was exactly that way in Texas.
I still believe that the Rooney endorsement has a bigger impact than most believe.
Great blog. Keep up the good work.
Oops. 0.3% off =(
Looks like my model needs a few tweaks.
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