Below are some charts that a few of you will like, and for others of you will be like reading train tables.
What follows is a each state's historical voting record for each Presidential Election since 1948. These charts should be fairly easy to interpret: an "r11" (Republican +11) for instance means that the Republican candidate beat the Democratic candidate by 11 points.
The only exception is when an independent or third-party candidate actually won the state. We indicate these cases with an "i7", meaning that the independent candidate won by a 7-point margin over the second-place finisher.
This next version is actually a little more interesting: this is a state's electoral history relative to the rest of the country. In 1972, for instance, Richard Nixon beat native son George McGovern by 9 points in South Dakota. However, since Nixon beat McGovern by 24 points overall, this was actually a relatively good showing for McGovern: he overperformed his nationwide popular vote margin by 15 points in South Dakota. Thus, this would be indicated in the table as a 'd15' (Democrat +15).
These tables will have a permanent home under the 'History' link in the navigation bar.
4.29.2008
Electoral History Charts
@ 7:16 AM
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61 comments
These electoral history charts are very cool. One suggestion is to order them by effect size, within region. See, e.g. Michael Friendly's paper "Effect ordering for data display"
http://portal.acm.org/citation.cfm?id=942043
another winner. this site is amazing.
Yep, that is interesting.
I didn´t know that the Dixiecrats won MS by 77 (!) points in 1948...
Great charts. The relative ones show the Democrat shift from the South to the North very well. Also interesting that Big Sky, Prairie and Southwest have been reliably Republican all along.
(Btw, wouldn't Oklahoma fit in better under "prairie", both literally and demographically? What's the rationale for putting it under Highlands?)
Gotta agree about Oklahoma.
Rasmus, you should also keep in mind that African Americans were largely excluded from voting in the South before the enactment of the Voting Rights Act of 1965. That's part of the explanation for the Dixiecrat landslide in 1948.
Two interesting things: first, looking at the relative charts, demographics is destiny. It's easy to see, for example, Highland and Big Sky states steadily shifting from blue to red over the decades, while Pacific, North Central, and Rust Belt moves the other way. BTW, that's one GREAT reason to keep Oklahoma in the Highlands: demographically, they're a lot more like Arkansas than Kansas.
Second, looking at the non-relative charts, the candidate makes a big difference! Just scan down the columns of '72 and '76 to see what I mean. The big "change" election in the country wasn't Reagan's win in 1980, it was Nixon's win in 1972.
I suggest making a five point moving average of the electoral vote won by each party since 1948. It is very interesting. The parties first diverge up until the middle of the graph and then converge, touching each other at the end of the graph.
Say, is it too late to retroactively surrender to the Confederate States of America? Let them form their own country, please. It would really make the electoral map much nicer if we took those 153 electoral votes away from McCain. (Even if you take into account Obama's slim chances of winning those states, it's still effectively stripping 105 delegates).
The last time one party depended so completely on the old south for electoral success as GWB/GWB/McCain have in these three election cycles was the old Dixiecrats of Grover Cleveland and Woodrow Wilson.
Hey these are sweet....
This is going to totally kick-
Go Dems .....
Very nice charts! However, PA and WI have exactly the same numbers, which seems like a mistake.
Great charts! But you should be aware that Acela stops in Pennsylvania....
we in PA are not in the fucking midwest.
^^^^ Hey, PA, I hope you are just expressing frustration on the geo-ignorance of your state's location.
Don't be dissin' us here in the midwest!
Whats the deal with Oregon 00'? I am pretty sure the Dems won that.
Nate, please note that you have the results for WI totally wrong! (It seems like the state's row is a duplicate of the PA results.) The last five elections WI was d4, d4, d10, d0 and d0 respectively.
for buffs in '48 Mississippi I believe didn't have a Dem Candidate
Pennsylvania fits in the Midwest. You have to remember these election charts have a very, very long view of history and time. Pennsylvania use to be considered a western state. Chill out, Pennsylvania is a shit hole, it wished it was as pure as a midwestern state.
Is PA really outback there with all those other countryfolk?
Gee, must be nice to see dust and cactus and not much else....
Just glancing at this table, I see several obvious errors.
For instance, it says Ohio was d0 in 2004. If that were true, President Kerry should be wrapping up his first term right about now.
It has New Mexico as d2 in 2004 and r0 in 2000. I believe it was d0 in 2000 and r0 or r1 in 2004. So pretty much the opposite of what you have here.
Additionally, you have Georgia as r5 in 1992 and Florida as r3 in 1996. I'm fairly certain that President Clinton carried Georgia in 1992 and Florida in 1996.
I could go on and on... either this table has been hacked since April or it was just wrong.
@ Ben
You're just misreading the charts. There are two different kind of charts- the first shows the actual results, the second the results relative to national average. Kerry did ever so slightly better in Ohio than he did nationally (hence the d0) despite losing Ohio (hence the r2 in the first chart).
The Electoral History Table and the Relative Electoral History
tables, while reporting different stats, share the same appearance.
To avoid confusions like Ben's (8/9 5:06pm), who seems to have read
the latter while thinking of the former, some distinguishing mark
could be added. Perhaps a label "Relative" on the right side?
Beautiful tables!
Pretty nice statistics, though it's lacking one thing, a 08 column of the current standing in the presidential race for comparison purposes.
"... charts that a few of you will like, and for others will be like reading train tables ..."?
What about those of us who like reading train tables?
Seriously great stuff.
WI should be listed as d0 in 2000, assuming I've gotten the nomenclature right. Gore won WI by 5,000 votes in 2000.
This is a fascinating resource, keep it up!
PA is not the midwest. It's northeast. Nothing against the midwest, it's just really odd to hear PA being placed there. Rustbelt does work though.
What's PA doing in the midwest? Have you seen a map lately?
It would be really cool to see an animation of this info on a map.
I just heard about your site this week, but these tables have made my day! well done, it is interesting to see a visual representation of the change over time in the various regions
I just heard about your site this week, but these tables have made my day! well done, it is interesting to see a visual representation of the change over time in the various regions
I just heard about your site this week, but these tables have made my day! well done, it is interesting to see a visual representation of the change over time in the various regions
Would be nice to see the recent history next to current projections as that gives an idea where a candidate is under or over performing
Saw you guys on Countdown and checked out the site. AWESOME! Perfect site for a stat nut like me! Keep up the good work!
Philadelphia certainly isn't midwest, but Pittsburgh (at least when I lived there) felt like a border city between East and Midwest. Rural Pennsylvania may well have more in common with the Midwest than with the crowded coasts.
Another vote to put PA in the Northeast category. No offense to Midwesterners, but everyone in PA considers our state to be in the Northeast, and to put us in a separate category is confusing.
I understand having to choose between Acela (Philadelphia) and Rust Belt (Pittsburgh), but Philly is a much larger population base, supporting suburbs for miles around. And as for historical patterns, our red/blue voting history matches NY's almost exactly.
I don't know why some people have issues with PA being Midwest. Half the state is midwest (the western half with Pitt) and half is northeast. By that logic, it makes as much sense to place it in one category as the other. But considering it is part of the manufacturing belt (aka rust belt), a distinctly midwestern entity, it makes more sense to place it as Midwest. Voting patterns do not place a state in a certain region of the country; culture does. PA is half and half.
I'm not from PA, but I imagine there are plenty of people from the western half of the state that would not approve of their state being called northeast. I know plenty of people from Pitt that are proud of being midwesterners and would laugh at you if you said they lived in the northeast. Furthermore, it's really quite sad to see people (who, based on their comments, sound like they are northeasterners) making derogatory comments about the midwest. It's ignorant, hateful, and really quite unbecoming. The Midwest is a great part of the country.
As a Pittsburgher, I can say that our side of the state seems to be mostly Midwest, but loves to think of itself as Northeast. We're on the border and I think culturally and consciously that's clear to see. As a socialist, I can tell you that my organization in the last maybe 12 years has always had unusual difficulty in Pittsburgh (on the 16,000-student Pitt campus in a college town), which is very common in all of the Ohio branches, but very uncommon in the Northeast branches (unfortunately, the Philly branch has no always existed, but does seem to have Northeastern characteristics). In conclusion, I think Pennsylvania is culturally Midwest, but feels guilty about that because it's Northeast enough to consider that shameful. The majority of the state's residents (in the middle) are in no way Northeast. MIDWEST is absolutely the right choice.
I am from western PA, and I always considered PA to be in the Northeast.
Pittsburg, Cleveland, Detroit, and Milwaukee are the same city, just spread in different states. Industry, bowling, Slavs, a cabin in the woods by the lake, unions, deerhunting. The Pennsylvania trendline in actually quite different from New York's, but it tracks Michigan's almost identically. ALL these "Rustbelt" states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, northern Ohio) have MUCH more in common with the Northeast than they do with someplace in the serious "Midwest" like Nebraska.
So, chill, Pennsylvanians. You're with the right group. Maybe the whole group's name should be changed....
I just compared the relative history charts with the current Obama-McCain numbers. Slide everything 5-10% Obama's way, and it looks like this election was decided before it began. Everything is rolling out as planned... and those "crazy" states Obama's folks thought they had a chance in and we all laughed at - which he's now competing & winning in (e.g. Virginia) - suddenly make perfect sense.
You're really onto something here.
I read this website everyday, and have for months, but this is the first time I have felt the need to comment.
As someone who grew up in Central Pennsylvania, and as a current Philadelphia resident, I must say that I have always considered Pennsylvania to be part of the Northeast. There is nothing "mid" or "west" about it. Others have argued that the portion of Pennsylvania that is closest to Ohio is similar to Ohio, and therefore the entire state should be viewed as part of the same region as Ohio. By that logic, California should be considered part of the "Southwest" since those communities in California that are closest to the Arizona border act more like Arizona than the "Pacific".
The major population center in Pennsylvania is Philadelphia. Pennsylvanians consider themselves part of the Northeast. "Nor'easters" commonly hit Pennsylvania. The Acela line goes through Philadelphia. The map indicates that Pennsylvania is in both the North and East.
Pennsylvania is part of the Northeast. Period.
Reminds me of an old joke:
A man walks into a train station and is dumbstruck by the well- endowed woman selling tickets behind the counter. Before he could catch his breath he mumbled:"Two pickets to Titsburgh please. I mean, two tickets to Pittsburg." Embarrassed, he turned away and bumped another commuter."Oh excuse me, I just made a fool of myself to that woman." The other commuter says:"Don't feel so bad. The other day the phone rang and it was some guy taking a political survey. I meant to say 'I'm sorry but I'm very busy now.', but what came out was 'YOUR'E RUINING MY FUCKING LIFE!!!'
Seriously, great website. Keep up the good work. Its amazing
EJM
So... PA is part of the midwest???
Would love to see the names of the President elected for each of the years (48' to '96 - you can include the one for '00 & 04 too but you will never catch me saying he was elected!) Maybe putting the names along a vertical slant above the years? Thanks!!
Great site! You are doing phenomenal work!!
Perhaps this isn't the place to decide the matter, but really, is there anything "west" about the "mid-west" states? They really should be called the "mid-east" states.
Ohio has now become the Winningest State for all intents and purposes. No longer should Missouri hold the title for accuracy in presidential elections.
http://viewfromanangleaskew.blogspot.com/2008/11/ohio-becomes-winningest-state.html
Not sure if you're still looking at these comments on old pages, but this page (like some others) seems to have broken the image links. I was going through saving some pages for my own post-mortem analysis, but without the charts it's a little difficult.
--Dave
Any plans to update the charts with the '08 results?
Looks like links to the photos are broken.
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專利或商標或存證信函或當舖問題都歡迎討論。
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請加入我們艾葳酒店經紀公司工作單純輕鬆”高時薪”又可日領徵想要當傳播妹,上班小姐,酒店兼差,酒店兼職,歡迎學生打工,!!!
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First of all, the comments section here is filled with Chinese. Second, please update!
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