Once or twice a day, I'll do a quick scan through Google News to see if I can find any polls that haven't yet been picked up in the mainstream media. (BTW, for the true addicts out there, this time of night can be good to get "BREAKING" news, since this is about when many morning newspapers publish their online editions).
My search a few moments ago turned up a new PPIC poll in California (PDF), which shows McCain within 3 points of Hillary Clinton, and 9 of Barack Obama in the state.
Is Hillary likely to lose California? Not in a competitive election; Hillary is still 92% to win the state even after this poll is included, and for all its electoral votes, California does not yet show up on her Swing State list.
Still, there are some troublesome internals in here for Clinton, most notably her favorability ratings: 45 favorable, 52 unfavorable. Obama, by contrast, is 61/34 (McCain is 49/45). This from a solid, nonprofit pollster that has been polling its state for many years, and over a particularly large sample (2,002 respondents).
That means Hillary has something of a ceiling in California. On the other hand, it should not be too hard for her to reach her ceiling if she has any success at all in tying John McCain to George W. Bush, who is ridiculously unpopular in the state (just 57 percent of Republicans and 18 percent of independents approve of his performance).
UPDATE: McCain is also within three points in Connecticut, according to a new poll from Quinnipiac. Obama is ahead by 17. Also, as in California, Clinton's unfavorables beat her favorables (47-46). Connecticut has a relatively high number of independents (33% of the electorate in 2004, as opposed to 27% in California) and I find it more plausible that McCain could compete there than in Cali.
3.27.2008
McCain within 3 of Clinton in California, Connecticut [UPDATED]
@ 1:56 AM
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
9 comments
Do you have this page on google analytics? It would be interesting to see from where you're getting the most hits.
Perhaps from undecided superdelegate's home towns ;)
Dan
Dan,
My most popular cities are:
1. NYC
2. Chicago
3. Wash DC
4. Seattle
5. Brooklyn
6. Austin
7. Minneapolis
Definitely a liberal crowd. West Hollywood is #11 and Portland, OR is #12.
FYI... I got here today for the first time via a link on dailykos.com frontpage.
Looking at Obama's swing states, it screams Edwards (rust belt + Virginia) or maybe Bloomberg in the VP slot.
Bloomberg would be a strong counter to Obama's Wright/jewish problem(s). Could boost him in NJ, eastern PA, FL. Maybe MI too.
Would give Obama economic gravitas as we're heading into a recession; would also appeal to independents and some Republicans.
A big city mayor probably wouldn't help him in many parts of the country, but these aren't necessarily parts that he's going to win anyway.
Also might act as a counter if McCain picks Lieberman. (Lieberman might also look like old news, same problem for Edwards.)
Although Edwards might help him in the rust belt and VA, he doesn't come with the same gravitas and his run to the left this primary season might hurt Obama in many parts of the country.
Comments?
Dan
Poblano,
Assuming that the light blue states on Obama's map actually go blue (NH, NJ, MN, NV, CO, NM), then he will need 2 of the 4 swing states (MI, OH, PA, VA) to win the nomination.
What are the chances of him winning any 2 of those 4? I think it will come down to those states and I can't see him losing the other states that are already blue in his favor. My personal opinion is that he will take MI and VA. MI always goes blue and Obama is popular in VA. All polls have him virtually tied with McCain there. I'd like to hear your opinions about this.
Also according to the SUSA poll from earlier in the month, he gets a couple votes from Nebraska because of the CD based around Omaha. Your thoughts on this as well?
You don´t need any simulations to do that.
His chance to win MI and VA is (57/100)*(46/100)=2622/10000=26,22%.
But probably not all light blue states will go blue and not all red states will go red.
情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,
艾葳酒店經紀公司提供專業的酒店經紀, 飯局小姐,領檯人員,領台,傳播妹,或者想要到台北酒店、林森北路酒店,私人招待所,或者八大行業當酒店PT,酒店公關,酒店兼職,想去酒店上班, 日式酒店,制服酒店,ktv酒店,禮服店,整天穿得水水漂漂的禮服酒店,鋼琴酒吧當酒店領檯,酒店小姐,公關小姐??,還是想去制服店當上班小姐,水水們如果想要擁有打工工作、晚上兼差工作、兼差打工、假日兼職、兼職工作、學生兼差、兼差、打工兼差、日領工作、晚上兼差工作、酒店工作、酒店上班、酒店打工、兼職、兼差、兼差工作、酒店上班等,想了解酒店相關工作和特種行業內容,想找打工、假日兼職、兼差打工、或晚班兼職想擁有快速賺錢又有保障的工作嗎???又可以現領請找專業又有保障的艾葳酒店經紀公司!
艾葳酒店經紀是合法的公司工作環境高雅時尚，無業績壓力，無脫秀無喝酒壓力，高層次會員制客源，工作輕鬆，可日領、現領。
一般的酒店經紀只會在水水們第一次上班和領薪水時出現而已，對水水們的上班安全一點保障都沒有！艾葳酒店經紀公司的水水們上班時全程媽咪作陪，不需擔心！只提供最優質的酒店打工,酒店上班,酒店打工環境、上班條件給水水們。心動嗎!? 趕快來填寫你的酒店上班履歷表
水水們妳有缺現金、有卡債、缺錢卡奴的煩腦嗎?想到日本留學日本打工嗎?妳是工讀生找工作??想要擁有高時薪又輕鬆的夜間兼職工作,打工機會和,假日打工,兼職工作日領假日打工的機會嗎??想實現夢想卻又缺錢沒錢嗎!??整天還在煩腦如何賺錢有什麼賺錢方法,和賺錢最快方法!?,想要打工,日領工作,短期打工,兼差工作,打工兼差工作嗎!?,
請加入我們艾葳酒店經紀公司工作單純輕鬆”高時薪”又可日領徵想要當傳播妹,上班小姐,酒店兼差,酒店兼職,歡迎學生打工,!!!
加入我們實現夢想就從現在開始^__^
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店經紀,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店工作,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
菲
梵,
Post a Comment