Once or twice a day, I'll do a quick scan through Google News to see if I can find any polls that haven't yet been picked up in the mainstream media. (BTW, for the true addicts out there, this time of night can be good to get "BREAKING" news, since this is about when many morning newspapers publish their online editions).
My search a few moments ago turned up a new PPIC poll in California (PDF), which shows McCain within 3 points of Hillary Clinton, and 9 of Barack Obama in the state.
Is Hillary likely to lose California? Not in a competitive election; Hillary is still 92% to win the state even after this poll is included, and for all its electoral votes, California does not yet show up on her Swing State list.
Still, there are some troublesome internals in here for Clinton, most notably her favorability ratings: 45 favorable, 52 unfavorable. Obama, by contrast, is 61/34 (McCain is 49/45). This from a solid, nonprofit pollster that has been polling its state for many years, and over a particularly large sample (2,002 respondents).
That means Hillary has something of a ceiling in California. On the other hand, it should not be too hard for her to reach her ceiling if she has any success at all in tying John McCain to George W. Bush, who is ridiculously unpopular in the state (just 57 percent of Republicans and 18 percent of independents approve of his performance).
UPDATE: McCain is also within three points in Connecticut, according to a new poll from Quinnipiac. Obama is ahead by 17. Also, as in California, Clinton's unfavorables beat her favorables (47-46). Connecticut has a relatively high number of independents (33% of the electorate in 2004, as opposed to 27% in California) and I find it more plausible that McCain could compete there than in Cali.
Thursday, March 27, 2008
McCain within 3 of Clinton in California, Connecticut [UPDATED]
-- Nate Silver at 12:56 AM
Labels: california, connecticut, today's polls
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6 comments
Do you have this page on google analytics? It would be interesting to see from where you're getting the most hits.
Perhaps from undecided superdelegate's home towns ;)
Dan
Dan,
My most popular cities are:
1. NYC
2. Chicago
3. Wash DC
4. Seattle
5. Brooklyn
6. Austin
7. Minneapolis
Definitely a liberal crowd. West Hollywood is #11 and Portland, OR is #12.
FYI... I got here today for the first time via a link on dailykos.com frontpage.
Looking at Obama's swing states, it screams Edwards (rust belt + Virginia) or maybe Bloomberg in the VP slot.
Bloomberg would be a strong counter to Obama's Wright/jewish problem(s). Could boost him in NJ, eastern PA, FL. Maybe MI too.
Would give Obama economic gravitas as we're heading into a recession; would also appeal to independents and some Republicans.
A big city mayor probably wouldn't help him in many parts of the country, but these aren't necessarily parts that he's going to win anyway.
Also might act as a counter if McCain picks Lieberman. (Lieberman might also look like old news, same problem for Edwards.)
Although Edwards might help him in the rust belt and VA, he doesn't come with the same gravitas and his run to the left this primary season might hurt Obama in many parts of the country.
Comments?
Dan
Poblano,
Assuming that the light blue states on Obama's map actually go blue (NH, NJ, MN, NV, CO, NM), then he will need 2 of the 4 swing states (MI, OH, PA, VA) to win the nomination.
What are the chances of him winning any 2 of those 4? I think it will come down to those states and I can't see him losing the other states that are already blue in his favor. My personal opinion is that he will take MI and VA. MI always goes blue and Obama is popular in VA. All polls have him virtually tied with McCain there. I'd like to hear your opinions about this.
Also according to the SUSA poll from earlier in the month, he gets a couple votes from Nebraska because of the CD based around Omaha. Your thoughts on this as well?
You don´t need any simulations to do that.
His chance to win MI and VA is (57/100)*(46/100)=2622/10000=26,22%.
But probably not all light blue states will go blue and not all red states will go red.
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